A LARGE new study adds to evidence that diabetes during pregnancy is linked with an increased risk of brain and nervous system problems in children, including autism, researchers say.

Whether diabetes actually causes those problems remains unclear. But when mothers have diabetes while pregnant, children are 28% more likely to be diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental disorder, according to an analysis of data pooled from 202 earlier studies involving more than 56 million mother-child pairs.

The risks for children of mothers with diabetes during pregnancy were 25% higher for autism, 30% higher for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and 32% higher for intellectual disability. They were also 20% higher for trouble with communication, 17% higher for movement problems and 16% higher for learning disorders than in children whose mothers did not have diabetes while pregnant.

Diabetes diagnosed before pregnancy appeared to confer a 39% higher risk for one or more of these neurodevelopmental disorders compared with gestational diabetes that begins in pregnancy and often resolves afterward, the researchers reported in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

Diabetes affects up to 9% of pregnancies in the United States, with the incidence rising, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Seven of the earlier studies compared affected children with siblings. These analyses did not find an effect from mothers’ diabetes, which suggests that shared genetic or familial factors might be contributing to the increased risk, the authors noted. 

The findings emphasize the importance of medical support for women at risk of developing diabetes and the continuous monitoring of their children, the researchers said.

The association of maternal diabetes with autism in offspring is well known, said Dr. Magdalena Janecka of NYU Grossman School of Medicine, who studies links between in utero exposures and child development but was not involved in the new research.

A large “meta-analysis” like this one allows for analyses of subgroups, such as mothers with pre-existing vs gestational diabetes, or children with autism vs those with ADHD or movement disorders, but it cannot prove cause and effect, Ms. Janecka said.

“Meta-analyses allow us to compare groups more precisely. At the same time, they are not bringing us any closer to understanding the causes or the underlying mechanisms.”

The study comes as Trump administration health officials have called for further research into whether vaccines are a cause of autism, a claim long championed by new Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. that has been debunked by established science. — Reuters

NEW YORK — Investors are trying to game out how much tolerance US President Donald Trump has for stock market losses after his latest tariff policies ignited a more than 10% wipeout on Wall Street, with some still holding out hope of eventual relief.

A so-called “Trump put” — the option market equivalent of a presidential backstop for equities — underpinned Mr. Trump’s first term, as he frequently cited stock market strength as proof his policies were working. Over the course of his first presidency the S&P 500  benchmark rose 68% and scaled record highs, while Mr. Trump cheered its progress, tweeting more than 150 times about the stock market.

This time around, hope that such a Trump put still exists is evaporating, or at the least, investors are coming around to the view that Mr. Trump is much more inclined to ride out sharp falls. The S&P and Nasdaq are down over 15% and 20% since his inauguration in January respectively.

“The whole notion of tariffs and trade policy has been such an integral part of Donald Trump’s psyche, I don’t see it abandoned,” said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, who said any pain level likely to cause Mr. Trump to change course remained a long way away.

Previous assumptions that Mr. Trump’s pro-business agenda would buoy risk assets similarly had already been fading as his trade policies rattled investors over the past few weeks.

But the more-aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs unveiled on April 2 deepened the market selloff, leaving investors questioning whether the Trump put was gone, or might eventually reappear through tariff rollbacks after any trade deals.

For Bob Elliott, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, the selloff still had a long way to go before any policy turnaround.

“It takes 20-30% declines in stocks to get there. So the decline so far is not big enough,” he said.

Some were more hopeful the market fall could eventually induce a change of course.

“I don’t think (Trump) is going to be highly tolerant of massive stock market declines — he’ll see his popularity tank, and it will endanger his whole agenda,” said Kevin Philip, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “I don’t see any way out of this if he doesn’t come up with deals or reasons to change course.”

The huge market falls — not seen since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 — even caused speculation online that Mr. Trump was intentionally “crashing” the market to force the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while making stocks more affordable to middle-class investors.

Mr. Trump on Friday retweeted a social media post bearing the caption “Trump is Purposely CRASHING The Market” and featuring images of the president pointing at a large downward red arrow and of him signing executive orders at the White House.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Mr. Trump said he was not intentionally engineering a market selloff and the rout was the result of a “medicine” needed to fix the US trade deficit.

Mr. Trump and his team have said their policies may cause short-term pain but will eventually revive manufacturing and spur growth. On Friday he told investors pouring money into the United States that his policies would never change.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to Reuters: “Just as it did during President Trump’s first term, the administration’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and the unleashing of American energy will restore American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street.”

PAIN LEVEL
Some investors fear that weakening consumer confidence, an escalating trade war, and rising price pressures could deal a harsh and lasting blow to the economy, regardless of any potential economic upside down the line.

For Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College, the disruption caused by the tariffs was too abrupt to allow US businesses to soften the blow, despite their resilience.

“You’re putting so many sandbags on the balloon, it’s going to come back down to earth with a thud,” Mr. Bethune said.

In the two sessions after the tariff decision was unveiled on Wednesday, the S&P 500 has tumbled 10.5%, erasing nearly $5 trillion in market value, marking its most significant two-day loss since March 2020.

Hopes that the market could be propped up by actions by the US Federal Reserve have also taken a knock.

Mr. Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the “perfect time” to do so. But stock losses deepened past 5% after Mr. Powell on Friday warned that the new tariffs would likely push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, suggesting the Fed was unlikely to rush in to cut rates.

“The market is still digesting the great deal of uncertainty and I think it’s also digesting the fact that both Trump and Powell have made it clear that the cavalry is not coming to immediately cause things to bounce back up,” said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura in New York.

Rising prices could reduce the Fed’s ability to take supportive actions as it has in previous market downturns or if economic conditions deteriorated significantly, analysts said. This could take off the table a so-called “Fed put,” or a perceived tendency of the central bank to run to the aid of financial markets.

“Who blinks first? The Fed or President Trump? The Fed has made it clear that with inflation where it is and unemployment where it is, (they’re) comfortable without doing anything right now,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. “We think Washington likely has to blink first to present some type of positive news.” — Reuters

WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS – A global trade war touched off by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs escalated further on Monday, as Trump threatened to increase duties on China and the European Union proposed counter-tariffs of its own.

Financial markets across the globe posted a third day of losses as investors worried that steep trade barriers around the world’s largest consumer market could lead to a recession. The S&P 500 closed lower after a rollercoaster session in which it touched its lowest level in more than a year.

Trump said the tariffs – a minimum of 10% for all US imports, with targeted rates of up to 50% – would help the United States recapture an industrial base that he says has withered over decades of trade liberalization.

“It’s the only chance our country will have to reset the table. Because no other president would be willing to do what I’m doing, or to even go through it,” he told reporters at the White House. “Now, I don’t mind going through it because I see a beautiful picture at the end.”

Trump spoke hours after he ratcheted up a confrontation with China, the world’s No. 2 economy.

Trump said he would impose an additional 50% duty on US imports from China on Wednesday if it did not withdraw the 34% tariffs it had imposed on US products last week. Those Chinese tariffs had come in response to 34% “reciprocal” duties announced by Trump.

Beijing responded with defiance. Trump’s threat was a “typical move of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said.

“We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” he added. “China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of US goods, including soybeans, nuts and sausages, though other potential items like bourbon whiskey were left off the list, according to a document seen by Reuters.

Officials said they stood ready to negotiate a “zero for zero” deal with Trump’s administration. “Sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiation table with the US and find a mutually acceptable compromise,” EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said at a news conference.

The 27-member bloc is struggling with tariffs on autos and metals already in place, and faces a 20% tariff on other products on Wednesday. Trump has also threatened to slap tariffs on EU alcoholic drinks.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Trump in Florida on Sunday, Politico reported, to urge him to emphasize striking trade deals with partners in order to reassure the markets that there is an endgame to the US strategy.

Trump said his administration would open trade talks with Japan, one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia, and administration officials say dozens of other countries have reached out as well with the hope of heading off the tariffs as high as 50% due to take effect on Wednesday.

The back-and-forth injected further turbulence into global financial markets, which have fallen steadily since Trump’s announcement.

Trump administration officials say the president is following through on a promise to reverse decades of trade liberalization that he believes has undercut the US economy.

“He’s doubling down on something that he knows works, and he’s going to continue to do that,” White House economist Kevin Hassett said on Fox News. “But he is also going to listen to our trading partners, and if they come to us with really great deals that advantage American manufacturing and American farmers, I’m sure he’ll listen.”

China’s retaliatory levies are the firmest response yet to Trump’s announcement, which has been met with bewildered condemnation from other leaders.

After stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong cratered on Monday, China’s sovereign fund stepped in to try to stabilise the market.

Shares in Taiwan plummeted almost 10% – the biggest one-day percentage fall on record.

Wall Street leaders issued warnings on US tariffs, with JPMorgan Chase JPM.N CEO Jamie Dimon saying they could have lasting negative consequences, while fund manager Bill Ackman said they could lead to an “economic nuclear winter.”

Ackman is one of a handful of Trump supporters who questioned the strategy. Billionaire Elon Musk, who is leading Trump’s effort to slash government spending, called for zero tariffs between the US and Europe over the weekend.

On Monday, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro dismissed the Tesla CEO as a “car assembler.”

NEW REALITY OR NEGOTIATING PLOY?
Investors and political leaders have struggled to determine whether Trump’s tariffs are permanent or a pressure tactic to win concessions from other countries.

Some in the EU worry that a forceful response risks even more blowback on European exporters of everything from French cognac and Italian wine to German cars.

Volkswagen’s Audi is holding back cars that arrived in US ports after April 2 because of the newly imposed 25% auto tariff. Aircraft parts supplier Howmet Aerospace may halt some shipments if they are impacted by tariffs, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

Some governments in Asia have signalled a willingness to engage.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te on Sunday offered zero tariffs as the basis for talks, while an Indian government official said Delhi does not plan to retaliate.

Investors are now betting that the growing risk of recession could prompt the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as next month. Trump repeated his call for the central bank to lower rates on Monday, but Fed chief Jerome Powell has so far indicated he is in no rush. — Reuters