Home Blog Page 1331

Australia raises terror threat level to ‘probable’ from ‘possible’

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Rebecca Lintz from Pixabay

 – Australia on Monday raised its terror threat level to “probable” from “possible”, citing an increase in extremist views in the country leading to a more than 50% chance of the planning of an onshore attack in the next 12 months.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he had raised the country’s threat level following advice from security services, but said there was no imminent threat of an attack.

“The advice that we have received is that more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies and it is our responsibility to be vigilant,” he told a news conference.

Australia lowered the threat level to “possible” in 2022, following eight years at “probable”.

Mike Burgess, director general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization, the country’s main intelligence agency, said tensions in the Middle East, including a conflict between Israel and Hamas that began on Oct. 7, were a contributing factor to raising the threat level.

“The conflict has fueled grievances, promoted protests, undermined social cohesion and elevated intolerance,” he said.

Australia has seen several violent attacks in recent months, some of which have been designated as motivated by extremism.

In April Australian police said a knife attack on an Assyrian church bishop and some of his followers in Sydney was a terrorist act motivated by suspected religious extremism. – Reuters

APEC businesses propose new climate bonds, carbon credit network

 – Asia-Pacific business executives urged emerging economies in the region to issue climate bonds indexed to a basket of currencies, which would reduce the risk from foreign exchange fluctuation in raising funds for clean energy transition.

The group of business executives comprising ABAC, which is APEC’s Business Advisory Council, also proposed on Sunday launching a pilot program to develop a voluntary carbon market (VCM) for the Asia-Pacific region.

“What we’re trying to establish is an interoperable, or mutually tradeable, voluntary carbon credit network within the Asia-Pacific region that can accelerate the region’s transition to a low-carbon society,” Hiroshi Nakaso, head of ABAC’s finance and investment task force, told a news conference on Sunday.

Under the program, like-minded countries will conduct cross-border carbon credit transactions on a trial basis to identify problems and possible solutions, Mr. Nakaso said.

The Asia-Pacific region lacks cross-border standards or regulatory infrastructure for a voluntary carbon market, a mechanism that channels private financing into climate projects.

The proposals, compiled at a meeting in Tokyo on Aug. 1-4, underscore a growing awareness in Asia about the need for private and public sectors to cooperate in financing the huge cost of energy transition.

ABAC, an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) advisory council, will present its recommendations at the APEC leaders’ summit to be held in Lima in November. Peru is this year’s chair of APEC, a bloc that accounts for almost half of world trade.

In the list of proposals, ABAC called on governments in the region to issue 10-year bonds with interest and principal payments indexed to a basket of currencies.

Such bonds would give developing nations access to hard currency to buy solar farms and storage facilities, and mitigate risk from exchange-rate fluctuation for lenders, said Tom Harley, one of the task force’s project leaders from Australia.

Asia is among the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate-related natural disasters. It also consists of many economies reliant on fossil fuel or vulnerable to currency market swings, heightening challenges for energy transition. – Reuters

China coast guard monitors Philippine patrol boats in Sabina Shoal

PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

China‘s coast guard said it was monitoring Philippine patrol and fishing vessels that have gathered around the contested Sabina Shoal, citing China‘s “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

China‘s coast guard had been monitoring the vessels since Saturday, spokesperson Gan Yu said in a statement late on Sunday.

Mr. Gan said patrol boats from the Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Bureau and multiple fishing boats have gathered in the waters near a Philippine ship which China has said was “illegally stranded” at the shoal.

The stranded ship “violates” China‘s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and “undermines” peace and stability in the South China Sea, the Chinese coast guard reiterated.

China refers to Sabina Shoal as Xianbin Reef, while the Philippines calls it Escoda Shoal. – Reuters

India plans tougher ad curbs on liquor makers such as Carlsberg, Diageo, Pernod

FREEPIK

 – India, which bans direct advertising of liquor, is set to announce sweeping rules that will bar even surrogate ads and sponsoring of events, which could force firms such as Carlsberg, Pernod Ricard and Diageo to redraw marketing campaigns.

Such “surrogate ads” often get round the ban by ostensibly showing less desirable items instead, such as water, music CDs or glassware garbed in logos and hues linked to their key product, and often promoted by popular Bollywood film stars.

Now they could bring fines for companies and bans for celebrities endorsing tobacco and liquor ads deemed misleading, according to the top civil servant for consumer affairs and draft rules being reported for the first time by Reuters.

“You can’t take a circuitous way to promote products,” the official, Nidhi Khare, told Reuters, adding that final rules were expected to be issued within a month.

“If we find ads to be surrogate and misleading, then even those who are endorsing (products), including celebrities, will be held responsible.”

For example, brewer Carlsberg promotes its Tuborg drinking water in India, with an ad showing film stars at a rooftop dance party and the slogan “Tilt Your World”, which echoes its beer ads elsewhere, emblazoned with the message: “Drink Responsibly”.

Competitor Diageo’s YouTube ad for its Black & White ginger ale, which has drawn 60 million views, features the signature black-and-white terriers from its scotch of the same name.

The changes threaten a seachange for liquor makers in India, the world’s eighth-biggest alcohol market by volume, with annual revenues Euromonitor estimates at $45 billion.

Growing affluence among its 1.4 billion people makes India a lucrative market for the likes of Kingfisher beer maker, United Breweries, part of the Heineken Group, which has more than a quarter of market share by volume.

Popular for their whiskies, Diageo DGE.L and Pernod PERP.PA, taken together, have a market share of about a fifth, while for Pernod, India contributes about a tenth of global revenues.

The new rules call for “prohibition against engaging in surrogate advertisement”, which extends to sponsorships and ads for products viewed as “brand extensions” that share the characteristics of an alcohol brand, the draft said.

Penalties under the new rules rely on consumer law, opening manufacturers and endorsers to fines of up to 5 million rupees ($60,000), while promoters risk endorsement bans running from one to three years.

Carlsberg declined to comment, while other companies did not respond to Reuters’ queries, including those on sales of non-alcohol products.

Members of the International Spirits and Wines Association of India, which represents Diageo and Pernod, “are committed to a compliant way of building brand extension businesses,” said its outgoing chief executive, Nita Kapoor.

The group was in talks with the government and supported advertising of “genuine” brand extensions, she added.

 

HEALTH IMPACT

The World Health Organization says bans or comprehensive curbs on alcohol advertising “are cost-effective measures” in the interest of public health.

Its data shows India’s consumption of alcohol per person will rise to nearly 7 liters in 2030, from about 5 liters in 2019, a period over which fellow Asian giant China’s consumption will drop to 5.5 liters.

And alcohol-related deaths in India stood at 38.5 for every 100,000 of its population, versus 16.1 for China.

Ms. Khare said India’s draft followed a review of global best practices, in countries such as Norway, which bans ads for alcohol and other goods relying on features of a liquor brand, in curbs that researchers say have cut alcohol sales over time.

The new draft rules prohibit marketing of items such as soda or music CDs employing a “similar label, design, pattern, logo” to that of alcohol products, explicitly targeting efforts to get around current bans.

Ads for items such as glasses and soda cans allow “brand names to appear in all their ads, creating its recall value for the consumers,” however, the draft states.

The new rules follow warnings to some liquor companies, such as Pernod, and some domestic tobacco firms to halt misleading ads, a senior government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

India is not against brand extension ads, the official added, but wants them to properly depict the product being showcased, rather than giving consumers the impression that the ad is for a liquor brand.

One India video promoted by Pernod, ostensibly for glassware products linked to its whisky brand, Blenders Pride, shows Bollywood star Alia Bhatt walking a ramp under flashing disco lights, and saying, “My life, my pride.”

While it has a logo similar to that of the whisky brand, the video, which also appears on the website of the Blenders Pride Glassware Fashion Tour, shows no glassware products. – Reuters

US expected to propose barring Chinese software in autonomous vehicles

Self-driving Car | Adobe Stock Photo

 – The US Commerce Department is expected to propose barring Chinese software in autonomous and connected vehicles in the coming weeks, according to sources briefed on the matter.

The Biden administration plans to issue a proposerule that would bar Chinese software in vehicles in the United States with Level 3 automation and above, which would have the effect of also banning testing on US roads of autonomous vehicles produced by Chinese companies.

The administration, in a previously unreported decision, also plans to propose barring vehicles with Chinese-developed advanced wireless communications abilities modules from U.S. roads, the sources added.

Under the proposal, automakers and suppliers would need to verify that none of their connected vehicle or advanced autonomous vehicle software was developed in a “foreign entity of concern” like China, the sources said.

The Commerce Department said last month it planned to issue proposed rules on connected vehicles in August and expected to impose limits on some software made in China and other countries deemed adversaries.

Asked for comment, a Commerce Department spokesperson said on Sunday that the department “is concerned about the national security risks associated with connected technologies in connected vehicles.”

The department’s Bureau of Industry and Security will issue a proposed rule that “will focus on specific systems of concern within the vehicle. Industry will also have a chance to review that proposed rule and submit comments.”

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately comment but the Chinese foreign ministry has previously urged the United States “to respect the laws of the market economy and principles of fair competition.” It argues Chinese cars are popular globally because they had emerged out of fierce market competition and are technologically innovative.

On Wednesday, the White House and State Department hosted a meeting with allies and industry leaders to “jointly address the national security risks associated with connected vehicles,” the department said. Sources said officials disclosed details of the administration’s planned rule.

The meeting included officials from the United States, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Spain, and the United Kingdom who “exchanged views on the data and cybersecurity risks associated with connected vehicles and certain components.”

Also known as conditional driving automation, Level 3 involves technology that allows drivers to engage in activities behind the wheel, such as watching movies or using smartphones, but only under some limited conditions.

In November, a group of US lawmakers raised alarm about Chinese companies collecting and handling sensitive data while testing autonomous vehicles in the United States and asked questions of 10 major companies including Baidu, Nio, WeRide, Didi Chuxing, Xpeng, Inceptio, Pony.ai, AutoX, Deeproute.ai and Qcraft.

The letters said in the 12 months ended November 2022 that Chinese AV companies test drove more than 450,000 miles in California. In July 2023, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said his department had national security concerns about Chinese autonomous vehicle companies in the United States.

The administration is worried about connected vehicles using the driver monitoring system to listen or record occupants or take control of the vehicle itself.

“The national security risks are quite significant,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in May. “We decided to take action because this is really serious stuff.” – Reuters

Britain’s Starmer condemns ‘far-right thuggery’ as unrest flares again

REUTERS

 – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday condemned what he described as “far-right thuggery” and said perpetrators would face the full force of the law after days of violent anti-immigration protests culminated in hotels being targeted.

Violent protests have erupted in towns and cities across Britain after three girls were killed in a knife attack at a children’s dance class in Southport in northwest England last week.

The murders were seized on by anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim groups as misinformation spread that the suspected attacker was an immigrant and a radical Islamist. Police have said the suspect was born in Britain and are not treating it as a terrorist incident.

The protests have spread through cities across the country, including in Liverpool, Bristol and Manchester on Saturday, resulting in dozens of arrests as shops and businesses were vandalized and looted and several police officers were injured.

On Sunday, hundreds of anti-immigration protesters gathered by a hotel near Rotherham, northern England, which Britain’s interior minister said was housing asylum seekers.

The protesters, many wearing masks or balaclavas, threw bricks at police and broke several hotel windows, a Reuters witness said, before setting a large bin close to the hotel on fire.

“I utterly condemn the far-right thuggery we’ve seen this weekend,” Mr. Starmer said in a statement, adding it was criminal violence and not legitimate protest.

“Be in no doubt, those that have participated in this violence will face the full force of the law.”

The National Police Chiefs’ Council said 147 people had been arrested since Saturday evening and more would follow in the coming days.

Mr. Starmer, who took office a month ago after his Labor Party won a decisive election victory over the long-ruling Conservatives, said residents were in “absolute fear” from the “marauding gangs” in Rotherham.

Local police said 10 officers were injured in Rotherham during confrontations with the crowd of 700 people, some of whom threw planks of wood and sprayed officers with fire extinguishers before smashing hotel windows.

One officer was knocked unconscious and others had suspected broken or fractured bones, police said.

“The mindless actions of those today have achieved nothing other than sheer destruction and leaving members of the public and the wider community in fear,” said Lindsey Butterfield, Assistant Chief Constable at South Yorkshire Police.

Sunday’s disorder was based in smaller towns than on Saturday, including the northwest towns of Lancaster and Bolton as well as Aldershot, southern England.

Police said they arrested 14 people after a march through Middlesbrough in the northeast resulted in “mindless violence” and a public warning to avoid the town center.

The interior ministry said mosques would be offered extra security under new arrangements after threats against them, including in Middlesbrough.

Members of the public were also urged to avoid the area around a hotel in Tamworth, central England, by local police who said “a large group of individuals are in the area and have been throwing projectiles, smashing windows, starting fires and targeting police. One officer has been injured.”

The last time violent protests erupted across Britain was in 2011 when thousands of people took to the streets after police shot dead a Black man in London. Mr. Starmer was the country’s chief prosecutor at that time.

Community leaders and families of the victims of the murders in Southport, near Liverpool, have criticized the unrest.

“Since Monday, too many people have sought to use the tragedy to create division and hate,” a group of faith leaders from Liverpool said in a joint statement.

“It can – and has – left communities in fear and has put people in danger.” – Reuters

PayMongo partners with YelloX to strengthen supply chain enterprises

Photo shows (from left) Ken Miguel, YelloX Business Development Officer; Marcus Francisco, YelloX ECommerce Division Manager; Roderick Chua, YelloX COO; Jojo Malolos, PayMongo CEO & President; Jordan Jacinto, PayMongo Head of Growth; and Ryan Tongson, Chief Commercial Officer.

PayMongo, a leading digital financial services company, partnered recently with YelloX, a renowned platform for end-to-end supply chain management, to streamline payment processing and fund management for supply chain enterprises.

PayMongo Founder and Chairperson Luis Sia underscored the strategic importance of the collaboration in utilizing the fintech company’s expansion from payments to financial services.

“We are thrilled to embark on this transformative journey with YelloX. Together, we aim to revolutionize the financial landscape of supply chain businesses, driving efficiency and growth in this dynamic sector,” Mr. Sia said.

The integration of PayMongo’s robust financial infrastructure into the YelloX platform marks a significant leap forward in facilitating seamless financial transactions within the supply chain ecosystem.

“By leveraging digital wallets and advanced payment solutions, YelloX users can now experience enhanced financial management capabilities, propelling operational efficiency to new heights,” Mr. Sia added.

PayMongo CEO Jojo Malolos said that the integration of PayMongo’s robust financial infrastructure into the YelloX platform marks a significant leap forward in facilitating seamless financial transactions within the supply chain ecosystem.

“This partnership represents a commitment to augmenting the  ability of YelloX to empower its SME customers with the tools they need to thrive in today’s competitive market,” Mr. Malolos said.

Mr. Malolos revealed that YelloX users can now experience enhanced financial management capabilities by leveraging digital wallets and advanced payment solutions, propelling operational efficiency to new heights.

“By simplifying payment processes and offering integrated financial solutions to YelloX, we are paving the way for accelerated growth and success in the supply chain industry as these cater to the needs of SMEs in successfully growing their businesses,” Mr. Malolos added.

Mr. Sia said that as supply chain organizations embrace the enhanced financial operations facilitated by this collaboration, they can expect improved cash flow management, better control over finances, and increased operational focus.

“The synergistic blend of PayMongo’s payment processing expertise and YelloX’s innovative supply chain solutions promises to redefine financial management practices and drive business expansion,” Mr. Sia said.

During its 5th anniversary celebration last March, PayMongo announced its transformation from a payment solutions provider into a digital financial services company.

 


Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by publishing their stories on the BusinessWorld Web site. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

Join us on Viber at https://bit.ly/3hv6bLA to get more updates and subscribe to BusinessWorld’s titles and get exclusive content through www.bworld-x.com.

[B-SIDE Podcast] Why do employees leave their company?

Follow us on Spotify BusinessWorld B-Side

In 2023, the Philippine attrition rate and voluntary turnover increased to 15.9% from 14.2% the previous year, according to a study from a risk and employment consultancy company. This means that more employees are leaving their companies for better salaries and growth opportunities.
From a company perspective, this is a potential indicator of dysfunctionality, which could lead to further problems. To address this issue, Kshitij Kohli, Head of Operations at Sun Life Global Solutions, has shared his insights about the reasons and impacts of high attrition rates for companies. He also discussed strategies that companies can use to control their attrition rates and how they can adjust to the shifting workplace demographics.

Interview by Edg Adrian A. Eva
Audio editing by Jayson John D. Mariñas

Follow us on Spotify BusinessWorld B-Side

Yulo wins men’s vault to scoop second gold in Paris

Gold medallist Carlos Edriel Yulo of Philippines celebrates on the podium at Bercy Arena, Paris, France, Aug. 3, 2024. — REUTERS

PARIS – Carlos Edriel Yulo of the Philippines won his second gold medal in as many days after he soared to the top of the podium in men’s vault at the Paris Olympics on Sunday.

Twenty four hours after he became the first Filipino to capture an Olympic gymnastics title with victory in the floor exercise final, Yulo doubled his Olympic gold medal haul by eclipsing Artur Davtyan. The Armenian won silver, while Britain’s Harry Hepworth took the bronze at the Bercy Arena.

Yulo nailed his opening Dragulescu vault in the tuck position, taking just a small step backwards and was rewarded by the judges with a huge score of 15.433 points.

His second vault earned him 14.800, giving him an average of 15.116 and after the event’s final results were announced, Yulo put his hands on his head and exhaled in disbelief, bowing in gratitude before the crowd.

“Winning yesterday took away all of my stress,” the elated Filipino told reporters.

“Today I was more chilled and relaxed. It helped me give it all because there was nothing to lose anymore. And that’s what happened. It’s so crazy, I don’t know what to feel right now.”

“The first vault was really good. I was so shocked that I landed it.”

The amiable Yulo said he was bracing himself for the hero’s welcome he will undoubtedly receive when he returns home.

“I’m really excited but I know it’s also going to be tough for me because it’s kind of outside gymnastics,” he said.

“Lots of interviews, lot of media but I’m really excited to do that.

“I’m really blessed and grateful.”

The 24-year-old’s Paris exploits also earned him a new home.

Filipino gold medallists at the Paris Games have been promised a fully furnished, two-bedroom condominium in Taguig City.

Asked if he will now get two houses, one for each gold medal, he said: “I think so but I should really check if that’s true.” — Reuters

GDP growth picked up in Q2 — poll

Government spending may have helped drive economic growth in the second quarter, analysts said. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Karis Kasarinlan Paolo D. Mendoza

PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC GROWTH likely picked up in the second quarter as higher government spending may have offset the impact of El Niño on agriculture, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 19 economists and analysts conducted late last week yielded a median gross domestic product (GDP) year-on-year growth estimate of 6% for the April-to-June period.

If realized, this would be faster than the preliminary 5.7% growth in the first quarter and the 4.3% clip recorded in the second quarter of 2023.

Q2 2024 GDP growth forecast

This would also bring the first-half growth to an average of 5.9%, below the 6-7% growth target for the year.

The Philippine Statistics Authority  will release the second-quarter GDP data on Thursday (Aug. 8).

“The main driver of growth was likely government spending. In contrast to last year’s underspending, the utilization rate of the 2024 budget has significantly improved,” HSBC ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) economist Aris D. Dacanay said in an e-mail.

In an e-mail, Sarah Tan, an economist from Moody’s Analytics, said government spending and “robust” goods exports are expected to be the bright spots in the second quarter.

Data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed that government spending rose by 14.6% year on year to P2.76 trillion in the second quarter.

Mr. Dacanay said the strong labor market may have also helped sustain household spending despite elevated inflation and high interest rates.

The country’s employment rate reached 95.9% in May, slightly higher than the 95.7% recorded a year ago. The unemployment rate also slipped to 4.1% in June from 4.3% in May 2023.

Victor A. Abola, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said high employment, “very elevated” government spending, and better-than-expected remittances have also contributed to faster growth.

Overseas remittances in the January-to-May period grew 3% to $13.37 billion from $12.98 billion a year ago.

EL NIñO
Meanwhile, El Niño’s impact on agriculture and slower household consumption may have constrained growth in the second quarter, analysts said.

Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said El Niño was likely a drag on the economy, both demand and supply side, as early as the first quarter.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist of Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said El Niño had a “scalding impact” on farm employment and rural incomes.

“Aside from the severe El Niño-related drought effects that cut down farm production, agricultural jobs and incomes, and contributed to higher food costs, the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) sentiment that reeked of more pessimism among households and business respondents, likely translated to lackluster spending during the quarter,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Asuncion said “price-conscious” households may have postponed purchasing big-ticket consumer items until incomes fully recover.

Headline inflation eased to 3.7% year on year in June. For the first six months of 2024, headline inflation averaged 3.5%, slightly higher than the central bank’s 3.3% full-year forecast.

The BSP kept its key rate steady at 6.5% in June, the highest in over 17 years.

“Private consumption and investment will likely slow from the prior quarter as the high borrowing costs continue to weigh on their budgets and confidence,” Ms. Tan said.

For the rest of the year, analysts expect growth to continue as inflation eases.

“We are hopeful that slower inflation in [the second semester] will help boost consumer confidence further. Slower rice inflation should help free up some of the Filipino consumers’ budget to help boost demand for nonfood consumer items. We also expect midterm elections spending to pick up even faster in the second semester to boost public sector spending,” Mr. Neri said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said that he expects inflation to ease in the second semester with the implementation of lower tariffs on rice.

Last month, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order No. 62 which slashed tariffs on rice imports to 15%, helping tame rice prices.

“We do expect year-on-year growth to ease in [the second semester] as favorable base effects ease. Nonetheless, we expect sequential growth to still be punchy, most especially when rice prices begin to drop, freeing up a big portion of household budgets and boosting private consumption,” Mr. Dacanay said.

However, Ms. Tan sees full-year economic growth to be below the government’s target of 6-7%.

“Across 2024, the Philippine economy is expected to grow 5.9%, outperforming many of its regional peers. An acceleration in exports from 2023 will bring this to fruition while private consumption will be the weakest link resulting in the economy missing the government’s growth target of 6-7% for the year. Still, a relatively tight labor market and a healthy inflow of remittances will cushion some of that pain,” she said.

Agricultural output likely shrank in Q2 due to El Niño

Dry soil is seen on a field in San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, March 1, 2024. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES’ overall agricultural output may have declined in the second quarter after crop production likely bore the brunt of droughts caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, analysts said.

University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Center for Food and Agribusiness Executive Director Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul said in a Viber message that farm production likely fell by 1.5% to 2.5% in the April-to-June period due to El Niño.

If realized, this would be worse than the 1.3% decline in the value of production in agriculture and fisheries seen in the second quarter of 2023. It would also be a reversal of the 0.05% growth in the first quarter of 2024.

El Niño, which began in June 2023, brought below-normal rainfall conditions, dry spells and droughts that affected crop production.

In early June, the state weather bureau declared the end of the El Niño although dry spells persisted in some parts of the country.

“I am expecting a drop due to the lingering effects of El Niño during the second quarter. Some of the crops may have survived, but output and productivity would have been affected due to water stress,” Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release second-quarter data on farm output on Aug. 7 (Wednesday). The agriculture sector contributes about a tenth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides around a quarter of all jobs.

UA&P’s Ms. Dacul said she expected a decline in crops and fisheries output in the second quarter due to the unseasonably warm weather brought by El Niño.

The crop subsector contributes more than half to the country’s overall agricultural production. As of the first quarter, rice contributed about 20% to the total, while corn accounted for 8%.

On the other hand, Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc. President Danilo V. Fausto said farm growth for the second quarter was likely flat.

“(El Niño) didn’t hit too hard but there was still an effect. So, whatever we are expecting to have an increase in yield, in output, it might be dampened because of the El Niño,” Mr. Fausto said in a phone call.

Farm damage due to El Niño totaled P15.3 billion, with rice and corn being the most affected crops, according to the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) final bulletin issued on Aug. 2.

The DA reported that total crop damage was at 784,344 metric tons covering 270,855 hectares of farmland, of which 68% or 184,182 hectares were deemed recoverable. It had affected 333,195 farmers and fisherfolks.

Ms. Dacul said that the poultry sector likely posted an increase in output in the second quarter, while livestock production may have been flat.

LA NIÑA
This year, the DA is targeting 1-2% agricultural growth, accounting for the effects of the El Niño and La Niña weather events.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said last month that the DA’s target would be achievable if no major typhoons hit the country during the second half of the year.

“For the second half, we are challenged because of La Niña. So, the agriculture sector really will be (impacted by it),” Mr. Fausto said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that there is a 70% likelihood of La Niña occurring during the months of August, September, and October. It would increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity in the coming months.

Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said that agricultural growth would likely be at 1% for the full year if the livestock, poultry and aquaculture subsectors recovered.

“The start of rains in July would have helped farmers recover, but the recent typhoon shows how unpredictable the weather can be and how vulnerable agriculture is to natural calamities,” Mr. Montemayor said.

However, former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said in a Viber message that it is unlikely that the agricultural output would hit the DA’s target for the year.

“Now with incoming La Niña, further crop damage will be experienced. Assuming the optimistic projection is true, where will growth come from?” he asked.

PSE to submit formal PDS buyout offer this week

THE BANKERS Association of the Philippines (BAP) expects the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to submit this week a formal offer to acquire the Philippine Dealing System Holdings Corp. (PDS Group).

“I think we’re expecting a formal offer from PSE, so we expect that maybe (this) week, a formal offer.  Then the board will take it up and study. We don’t know how much or anything,” BAP President Jose Teodoro K. Limcaoco told reporters.

“We have an internal valuation as I’m sure they have also, and I’m sure they’ll be far apart. But I’m sure we can come to an agreement. I’m sure price is not an issue or shouldn’t be a stumbling block.”

The PSE is eyeing the acquisition of up to 100% of the PDS, the operator of the Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp. (PDEx), which caters to the fixed-income market by providing trading infrastructure.

The PSE currently has a 20.98% stake of the issued and outstanding capital stock of the PDS Group, while BAP members and institutions have a 21% stake.

If the sale pushes through, the PDS will be owned by the PSE.

“You’ll have the depository owned by the PSE and then PDEx, which is another exchange. Whether that remains a separate bond exchange or whether they fold that bond exchange into a bond and stock exchange, we’ll see,” Mr. Limcaoco said.

PSE President and Chief Executive Officer Ramon S. Monzon earlier said they are eyeing to finalize the takeover of PDS within the year.

In 2017, the PSE almost completed its takeover of PDS. However, the Securities and Exchange Commission blocked the transaction as it would breach the individual ownership limit provided under the law.

CHANGES TO BVAL?
Meanwhile, Mr. Limcaoco said the Philippine BVAL (Bloomberg Valuation Service) can be improved but does not see the need to change it anytime soon.

“Any index should, first of all, be transparent, which means people can see where it comes from and how it’s calculated. An index also should be something that’s fairly liquid… and it should be something that’s reflective of the market, which means people can deal around it,” he said.

“Now, is BVAL that? It’s not perfect, but as long as market participants accept it and trade off it, then it’s an index. Can we come up with a better index today? I don’t think there’s one.”

The BVAL is administered by the BAP to be used as the Philippine peso government securities benchmark.

The BVAL reference rates are solely calculated by Bloomberg Finance Singapore L.P. and its affiliates, under an agreement with the BAP.

“I don’t think the current index is inappropriate today but like all indices, it can always be improved,” Mr. Limcaoco said.

“Because you need to deepen the markets, you need to deepen specific maturities… Can we have a very liquid five-year benchmark? Yes, but then we would have to make sure that we have a consistent and liquid five-year instrument. So that means some work both from the capital markets or with the National Treasury,” he added.

The BSP chief has been pushing for initiatives to deepen the capital markets. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said that the BVAL is a “choppy yield curve,” noting the “lack of liquidity” in the curve. He proposed the potential use of swaps curve.

“If we have a swaps curve, maybe you need to make markets, perhaps in just one maturity, the five-year. Maybe that will be good enough. Somehow, this has not happened; the short end still seems problematic. We do not have a good repo [repurchase] market to tie down the short end,” Mr. Remolona earlier said.

“So, I would like to revive the swaps market, the IRS [interest rate swaps] market, and insist on the market making at least the five-year maturity — which is the sweet spot for fixed-income securities, corporate bonds, and derivative contracts,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson