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Trauma of October 7 attack still hangs over Israel as war spreads

Supporters of bereaved family members and the families of hostages who were kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, protest on a Day of Disruption by anti-government protest groups outside the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament in Jerusalem, May 20, 2024. — REUTERS

JERUSALEM — While much of the world has focused on Israel’s military response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, and the devastation it has caused, Israelis’ lives in the past year have been overshadowed by the trauma of that day.

The attack was the worst disaster in Israel’s history, leaving the country reeling from the failure of its often vaunted military to protect its people.

“I think Israel is a country that is still grieving, that I don’t think was fully able to go through the grief and process what happened on Oct. 7,” said Hen Mazzig, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv Institute, a pro-Israel advocacy group.

Hamas-led gunmen killed some 1,200 people during a rampage through communities in southern Israel and took more than 250 hostages into Gaza, according to Israeli figures, the worst single-day loss of life for Jews since the Nazi Holocaust.

Israel’s response, aimed at eliminating Hamas, has levelled Gaza, killing nearly 42,000 people, according to Palestinian health officials, and displacing nearly all its 2.3 million people.

As the war reaches its first anniversary, Israelis face a wider war with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and potentially with Iran itself, which launched a barrage of missiles at Israel last week.

Although increasing numbers of Israelis have called for a ceasefire in Gaza recently, there has also been wide support for war against Hamas and Hezbollah, which the Israeli military says had plans to launch an Oct. 7-style attack of its own in northern Israel. Some 80% of Israelis said it was right to launch an offensive against Hezbollah even though the war in Gaza is still going on, according to a survey for the Israel Democracy Institute last week.

But the failure to bring the hostages home remains an open wound. There have been mass protests demanding the government do more to get them back and growing calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, with bitter criticism by protesters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However images of the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza are almost totally absent from television, apart from footage filmed by the military or reports from embedded journalists accompanying Israeli troops.

There is also little recognition for the fact that for Palestinians, the destruction of Gaza has reminded them of their own historical trauma, the loss of their land in the Nakba — or catastrophe — after the war that erupted when the state of Israel was founded in 1948.

Instead, there has been a general hardening of attitudes and a sense that Israelis and Palestinians feel further apart than ever.

For Avida Bachar, a farmer from the kibbutz of Be’eri who lost his leg and watched his wife and son die when Hamas gunmen attacked his home one year ago, there is one solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Palestinians must be moved from Gaza to any state willing to take them, so they can no longer threaten Israel, he says.

“We only have one option to solve this, which is to transfer them to other sovereign states.”

‘NO LONGER YOUR FRIEND’
In Israel, armed civilians are visible everywhere, on edge for attacks by Palestinians who many feel sympathized with the Oct. 7 attack.

Abu Yousef, 70, a Palestinian from Kafr Manda, a Palestinian village in northern Israel, who used to work with Israelis on farms and in vegetable markets, said everything changed after Oct. 7.

“We used to have Jewish friends, we would ask about each other’s families. But one who was your friend before, is no longer your friend.”

For Jewish Israelis, the events of Oct. 7 had existential implications, echoing the pogroms in Europe of past centuries and laying bare the fight for survival many feel their country faces against enemies on all sides, with Iran pulling the strings.

“The feeling is there’s no security in this place. Anything can happen,” said Alex Kaidrikov from Tel Aviv, who said he narrowly missed an attack last week by two Palestinian gunmen that killed seven people, on the day Iran launched a ballistic missile barrage at Israel.

“It’s just shocking and overwhelming, and there’s nothing we can do about it,” he said.

The trauma has been compounded by the way initial sympathy from much of the world over the Oct. 7 attack shifted to condemnation over Israel’s campaign in Gaza.

Israel, founded in the wake of the Nazi Holocaust, faces allegations of genocide at the International Court of Justice and Mr. Netanyahu has been bracketed with the leader of Hamas, a group branded a terrorist organization by many Western countries, in a prosecution request at the International Criminal Court for an arrest warrant alleged war crimes.

Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed the allegations of genocide. He has rejected the prosecution request as “absurd” and said it was directed against the whole of Israel, an example of the “new antisemitism.”

For many in Israel, the global mood, which has seen a sharp rise in both antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents, reflects a mix of Western naivete and deliberate manipulation by Hamas and its sympathizers. But even liberal Israelis have felt hurt by the feeling the world has turned against their country.

Maayan, 37, a product manager from Tel Aviv who gave only her first name, said she understood the upset over the suffering in Gaza. But she felt many protests seemed aimed at delegitimizing Israel or even calling into question its right to exist.

“At the end of the day, I’m Israeli. I have nowhere else to go,” she said. “So I do find it a little painful.” — Reuters

Indonesia’s Prabowo wants gradual increase in debt-to-GDP ratio

A TELLER counts Indonesian rupiah bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, Oct. 14, 2024. — REUTERS

JAKARTA — Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto will increase the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio level gradually, alongside efforts to boost tax revenues, his top adviser and brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo told a seminar on Monday.

The increase may be within a range of one to two percentage points per year, he said, describing Indonesia’s current debt-to-GDP level of under 40% as “underleveraged.”

Investors and rating agencies are closely monitoring Prabowo’s fiscal plans after his earlier comments suggesting an appetite for higher debt levels to fund his costly campaign promises triggered concern about potential fiscal slippage.

In June, capital outflows hit the rupiah after Bloomberg News reported Mr. Prabowo planned to boost the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% within his five year term.

His advisers subsequently denied this and repeatedly promised Mr. Prabowo will comply with Indonesia’s fiscal laws limiting the annual budget deficit to a maximum 3% of GDP and debt-to-GDP at 60%.

“Prabowo will not add to national public debt abruptly, not drastically,” Mr. Hashim said.

“We will remain prudent, but we will be daring, more aggressive, so we can fulfil our (campaign) promises,” he added.

Mr. Prabowo’s key campaign pledge is to provide free meals to more than 80 million children and pregnant mothers across Indonesia, which is estimated to cost 450 trillion rupiah ($28.73 billion) to implement. — Reuters

UNICEF chief warns Gaza kids face ‘post-generational challenges’

PALESTINIANS wait to receive food cooked by a charity kitchen amid shortages of food supplies in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, Jan. 16, 2024. — REUTERS

WASHINGTON — After a year of military operations between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the head of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned that children there will face “post-generational challenges” due to the conflict.

“If you look at Gaza really through the eyes of a child, it is a hellscape,” UNICEF’s executive director Catherine Russell told CBS News’ Face the Nation on Sunday, noting the toll of family deaths and displacements, as well as ongoing lack of food and clean water.

“They are so traumatized by what’s happening,” Ms. Russell said of the kids. “Even if we can get more supplies in there, the trauma that these children are suffering is going to have lifetime and even post-generational challenges for them.”

The fighting started on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters killed 1,200 civilians and took about 250 hostages in Israel, according to Israeli tallies.

Ms. Russell said it remains “very dangerous” to move humanitarian aid in Gaza. However, she credited her organization with a “success story” of vaccinating thousands of children for polio in the area.

On the latest Israeli military operations in Lebanon targeting Iran-backed group Hezbollah, the UNICEF director said “the speed and intensity is shocking” and that “it makes it challenging for us” to reach the approximately one million displaced people there.

“I feel confident at this point that we can meet the needs but it is taking a tremendous amount of effort on our part,” Ms. Russell said. — Reuters

‘Terrorist attack’ near Karachi airport kills two Chinese nationals, embassy says

ALEJANDRO LUENGO-UNSPLASH

ISLAMABAD — Two Chinese nationals were killed in an explosion near the international airport of the southern Pakistani city of Karachi on Sunday night, the Chinese embassy in Pakistan said, in what it described as a “terrorist attack.”

In a statement emailed to journalists, separatist militant group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed the explosion was an attack carried out by them using a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targeting Chinese nationals, including engineers.

The Chinese embassy said a convoy from the Port Qasim Electric Power Co. was attacked near the airport.

“The Chinese Embassy and Consulates General in Pakistan strongly condemn this terrorist attack, express deep condolences to the innocent victims of both countries and sincere sympathies to the injured and (their) families,” the statement said, adding the Chinese side has been working with Pakistani authorities in the aftermath.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a Chinese national was also injured and that an investigation was underway.

“Pakistan stands committed to safeguarding our Chinese friends,” he said in a statement on social media platform X. “We will leave no stone unturned to ensure their security and well-being.”

Pakistan is preparing to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the capital Islamabad, which was roiled by protests and clashes this weekend between police and supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

High-level Chinese representation and the first visit by an Indian foreign minister in a decade are expected at the summit next week, which authorities have vowed to secure.

Pakistan broadcaster Geo News reported at least 10 people were injured in Sunday’s blast in addition to the fatalities. Karachi police did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The BLA seeks independence for the province of Balochistan, located in Pakistan’s southwest and bordering on Afghanistan and Iran. In August, it launched coordinated attacks in the province, in which more than 70 people were killed.

BLA specifically targets Chinese interests – in particular the strategic port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, accusing Beijing of helping Islamabad exploit the province. It has previously killed Chinese citizens working in the region and attacked Beijing’s consulate in Karachi. — Reuters

Iran summons Australian envoy over stance on its Israel attack, Tasnim says

STOCK PHOTO | Image by jorono from Pixabay

 – Iran’s foreign ministry has summoned the Australian ambassador in Tehran over what it called his country’s biased stance regarding Iran’s attack on Israel, Iranian news agency Tasnim said on Sunday.

Tehran’s missile attack on Tuesday came in retaliation for the killing of several leaders of Iran-aligned armed groups. Israel has vowed to respond.

The Australian envoy, Ian McConville, was summoned on grounds of bias regarding Iran’s response to what Tehran called “the Zionist regime”, in a reference to Israel.

However, Australia “makes no apology for the views it has expressed about Iran’s actions or the actions of its ambassador to Australia”, a spokesperson for its department of foreign affairs and trade said.

The country had “condemned Iran’s reckless missile strikes on Israel (which were) a dangerous escalation” and “continues to call on all parties to exercise restraint and de-escalate”, the spokesperson added in a statement in Canberra. – Reuters

Maldives president Muizzu to meet India’s Modi amid economic woes

By The President's Office of the Republic of Maldives, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=143498442
By The President’s Office of the Republic of Maldives, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=143498442

 – Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu will hold talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday during a five-day state visit, hoping for New Delhi’s continuing support as his Indian Ocean nation recovers from an economic crisis.

Concerns have grown in recent months that cash-strapped Maldives could become the first country to default on Islamic sovereign debt but sentiment has improved since China and India, which vie for influence in the strategically located archipelago, extended fresh support lines.

India extended emergency financial support to the Maldives last month by subscribing to its $50 million treasury bill at the request of Mr. Muizzu’s government, days after China agreed to strengthen trade and investment in the Indian Ocean nation.

Financial support from New Delhi to revive an ailing economy is expected to top the agenda when Mr. Muizzu meets Mr. Modi on Monday.

“India is fully cognizant of our fiscal situation, and as one of our biggest development partners, will always be ready to ease our burden, find better alternatives and solutions to the challenges we face,” Mr. Muizzu told the BBC ahead of his visit.

Much of the money the Maldives owes is to China and India, which have extended $1.37 billion and $124 million in loans respectively, according to World Bank Data. The fear of Maldives’ default follows a turbulent few years, as COVID-19 hammered the nation’s mainstay tourism industry.

Maldives-India relations were hurt after Mr. Muizzu won power in April and demanded New Delhi replace 80 defense personnel it had stationed on the Maldives with civilians as part of his “India out” campaign. But the relationship has been on the mend following diplomatic talks and meetings since.

“Recent developments reflect a positive trajectory in our bilateral relations, and we are committed to fostering a cooperative and mutually beneficial partnership,” Mr. Muizzu said in an interview published in Monday’s Times of India newspaper. – Reuters

Freed Russian arms dealer Bout back in weapons business, WSJ reports

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Daniel S. from Pixabay

Viktor Bout, the Russian arms dealer who was jailed in the United States and then swapped two years ago for the US basketball star Brittney Griner, is back in international arms trade, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

Citing an unnamed European security source and other anonymous sources familiar with the matter, the WSJ wrote that Bout, dubbed “the merchant of death” is trying to broker the sale of small arms to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants.

“When Houthi emissaries went to Moscow in August to negotiate the purchase of $10 million worth of automatic weapons, they encountered a familiar face: the mustachioed Bout,” the newspaper reported, citing its sources.

The potential arms transfers are yet to be delivered, the WSJ reported. They stop well short of the sale of Russian anti-ship or anti-air missiles that could pose a significant threat to the US military’s efforts to protect international shipping from the Houthis’ attacks, it added.

Reuters could not independently verify the report. The Kremlin and Russia’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request to comment.

The WSJ reported that Steve Zissou, a New York attorney who represented Mr. Bout in the US, had declined to discuss whether his client had met with the Houthis, and that a Houthi spokesman declined to comment.

After returning to Russia following the prisoner swap in December 2022, the 57-year-old Mr. Bout joined the Kremlin-loyal ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), but has kept a relatively low public profile since.

Mr. Bout was one of the world’s most wanted men prior to his 2008 arrest in Thailand on multiple charges related to arms trafficking. He was extradited to the U.S. and in 2012 was convicted and sentenced by a court in Manhattan to 25 years in prison.

For almost two decades, Mr. Bout was one of the world’s most notorious arms dealer, selling weaponry to rogue states, rebel groups and murderous warlords in Africa, Asia and South America.

His notoriety was such that his life helped inspire a Hollywood film, 2005’s Lord of War, starring Nicolas Cage as Yuri Orlov, an arms dealer loosely based on Mr. Bout. – Reuters

Kamala Harris, on popular podcast, rejects Republican digs at childless women

US President Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks in the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., Feb. 23, 2024. — REUTERS

US Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday rejected Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ suggestion that the Democratic presidential candidate is not humble because she does not have biological children.

Ms. Harris said the Arkansas governor’s views on family were outdated and discussed her own “modern family,” which includes her husband, Doug Emhoff, and his two children from his first marriage, Cole and Ella.

During a town hall Sanders moderated for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Michigan in September, she said her kids keep her “humble,” while Ms. Harris “doesn’t have anything keeping her humble.”

Ms. Harris responded to Mr. Sanders’ comments on the popular “Call Her Daddy” podcast on Sunday, saying “I don’t think she understands that there are a whole lot of women out here who, one, are not aspiring to be humble. Two, a whole lot of women out here who have a lot of love in their life, family in their life, and children in their life.”

“And I think it’s really important for women to lift each other up,” Ms. Harris added.

Ms. Harris said family comes in many forms.

“We have our family by blood, and then we have our family by love, and I have both, and I consider it to be a real blessing,” she said. “And I have two beautiful children, Cole and Ella, who call me Momala. We have a very modern family. My husband’s ex-wife is a friend of mine.”

The vice president also responded to Mr. Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, having previously complained he didn’t want the country run by “childless cat ladies.”

“I just think it’s mean and mean-spirited,” Ms. Harris said.

Mr. Sanders’ office and the Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Ms. Harris joined the podcast, hosted by Alex Cooper, for a conversation focused on reproductive rights, sexual abuse and student loans.

The appearance was part of a broader media outreach effort by Harris as she seeks to boost her support in the final month before the Nov. 5 election against Trump.

The vice president’s campaign, which has come under criticism over the amount of media interviews Harris has done so far, said she will appear on CBS’ “60 Minutes,” ABC’s “The View,” CBS’ “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and “The Howard Stern Show” this week. – Reuters

Philippines, South Korea upgrade ties to strategic partnership

Republic of Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol signs the guest book upon his arrival as President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos welcome him at Malacañan Palace on Monday, Oct 7. Noel B. Pabalate / PPA POOL

MANILA – Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said on Monday his country and South Korea have upgraded bilateral ties to a strategic partnership, as he met visiting counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol for talks.

The two leaders discussed various issues including the South China Sea and situation on the Korean peninsula, as well as signing memorandum of understanding (MOU) agreements on coast guard cooperation and nuclear energy.

Mr. Yoon said the two countries would strengthen their partnership on the security front, with South Korea taking part in the modernization program of the Philippine military.

The two leaders agreed to uphold an international rules-based order, including on safety of navigation in the South China Sea, Yoon said, adding the they agreed that the international community would never condone North Korea’s nuclear program or what he called “reckless provocations”.

Mr. Yoon will visit Singapore on Oct. 8-9 before heading to Laos the following day, where he will attend the regional summit of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and several other Asian countries. – Reuters

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Lending growth fastest in nearly 2 years

PJCOMP-FREEPIK

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

BANK LENDING GROWTH hit a 20-month high in August, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks rose by 10.7% year on year to P12.25 trillion in August from P11.07 trillion a year ago.

This was also the fastest growth rate since the 13.7% logged in December 2022.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, big banks’ outstanding loans inched up by 0.8% month on month. Bank lending grew by 10.4% in July.

Central bank data showed outstanding loans to residents picked up by 10.9% in August from 10.4% a month earlier. On the other hand, the growth of loans to nonresidents sharply slowed to 1.5% from 9.2% in July.

Loans for production activities climbed by 9.4% year on year to P10.47 trillion in August from P9.58 trillion a year ago. It was also faster than the 8.8% clip in July.

“This growth was largely driven by loans to key industries such as real estate activities (13.2%); wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (10.7%); manufacturing (9.8%); transportation and storage (23.4%); electricity, gas, steam & air-conditioning supply (7%),” the BSP said.

Double-digit increases were also seen in loans for water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (44.9%); professional, scientific and technical services (22%); and mining and quarrying (21.7%).

Meanwhile, the growth in consumer loans to residents eased to 23.7% in August from 24.3% a month prior.

This as slower loan growth was recorded in credit cards (27.4% in August from 28.2% in July), motor vehicles (19.3% from 19.9%), and salary-based general purpose consumption loans (16.4% from 16.5%).

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the jump in lending growth was due to the BSP’s rate cut in August, its first policy reduction in close to four years.

The central bank in August reduced the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.5%.

The Monetary Board has two remaining meetings this year, on Oct. 16 and Dec. 19. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has signaled the possibility of cutting by 25 bps at the next two meetings.

Easing inflation and further rate cuts would also “help spur greater demand for loans or credit due to lower borrowing costs,” Mr. Ricafort added.

Headline inflation eased to 1.9% in September from 3.3% in August and 6.1% a year ago. This was also its slowest print in over four years or since the 1.6% print in May 2020.

MONEY SUPPLY
Meanwhile, separate BSP data showed that domestic liquidity (M3) rose by 5.5% in August, slower than the 7.3% posted a month ago.

M3 — which is considered as the broadest measure of liquidity in an economy — increased to P17.4 trillion in August from P16.5 trillion a year earlier. Month on month, M3 slipped by 0.1%.

Domestic claims jumped by 10% in August, slower than the 11.4% expansion in July.

“Claims on the private sector grew by 11.9% in August from 12% in July (revised), driven by sustained expansion in bank lending to nonfinancial private corporations and households,” the BSP said.

“Net claims on the central government increased by 8.5% from 14.1% in the previous month (revised), due to continued borrowings by the National Government,” it added.

Central bank data showed net foreign assets (NFA) in peso terms went up by 2.4% year on year in August, much slower than 11.2% in the previous month.

“The BSP’s NFA grew by 7.7%, while the NFA of banks contracted, largely due to higher bills and bonds payable.”

Mr. Ricafort said that domestic liquidity growth could pick up after the latest cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR).

The central bank last month said it will cut big banks’ RRR to 7% from 9.5% effective on Oct. 25.

Mr. Remolona has said that they are looking to reduce the ratio to zero within his term, which ends in 2029.

“Any further RRR cuts, which add more peso liquidity in the financial system, would be gradual in the coming years,” Mr. Ricafort added.

BAD LOANS
Meanwhile, separate BSP data showed the banking industry’s gross nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio continued to rise in August, hitting a fresh two-year high.

Preliminary data from the BSP showed the banking industry’s gross NPL ratio went up to 3.59% in August from 3.58% in July and 3.41% a year ago.

This was also the highest bad loan ratio in 26 months or since 3.6% in June 2022.

Bad loans inched up by 0.9% to P512.7 billion in August from P508.1 billion in July. Year on year, it rose by 15.8% from P442.6 billion.

Loans are considered nonperforming once they remain unpaid for at least 90 days after the due date. These are deemed as risk assets since borrowers are unlikely to pay.

In August, past due loans were up by 0.9% to P631.4 billion from P625.7 billion in July and by 19.6% from P527.9 billion a year ago.

This brought the past due ratio to 4.42% in August, higher than 4.4% in July and 4.15% a year earlier.

Restructured loans went up by 0.7% to P293.2 billion in August from P291.1 billion a month prior. Year on year, it declined by 4.2% from P306 billion.

Restructured loans accounted for 2.05% of the industry’s total loan portfolio, steady from a month ago but lower than 2.36% last year.

Banks’ loan loss reserves increased by 0.7% to P482.5 billion from P479.2 billion a month ago. It also rose by 5.8% from P456 billion year on year.

This brought the loan loss reserve ratio to 3.37%, steady from July but lower than 3.52% in August 2023.

Lenders’ NPL coverage ratio, which gauges the allowance for potential losses due to bad loans, slipped to 94.11% in August from 94.32% in July and 103.02% a year ago.

Slowing inflation gives Philippine central bank room for more cuts

Vendors sell vegetables at a stall along Hidalgo St. in Quiapo, Manila. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

THE LATEST September inflation print and improving outlook will give the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) more than enough room to cut benchmark rates further, analysts said.

“With an even better inflation outlook on the horizon, the risk of the BSP cutting its policy rate again twice this year is largely increasing,” HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Aris D. Dacanay said in a report.

The consumer price index (CPI) sharply slowed to 1.9% in September from 3.3% in August. September marked the first time in over four years that inflation was below 2%.

“In terms of monetary policy, the decline in headline inflation reinforces our view that BSP will continue to cut rates this year after kicking off its easing cycle early,” Nomura Global Markets Research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said in a commentary.

The BSP in a statement on Friday said the September print affirms its outlook that inflation will continue its downward trend in the succeeding quarter.

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) in a commentary said that inflation may have reached its lowest this year and could potentially rebound in the fourth quarter amid fading base effects.

“Nevertheless, we expect inflation to remain under control, potentially staying below 3% in the absence of supply shocks. This favorable condition could extend into 2025,” BPI said.

‘BATTLE IS FINALLY OVER’
In the first nine months, headline inflation averaged 3.4%, which is also the central bank’s full-year forecast for 2024.

“Last time inflation was this low, the Philippines was in lockdown due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic. It almost feels too good to be true as the Philippine economy went through an inflation surge that lasted for almost two years,” Mr. Dacanay said.

“But we think the September CPI marks the day that the BSP’s inflation battle is finally over — all because of a mix of both hard work and luck.”

Mr. Dacanay attributed this to both monetary and nonmonetary measures over the past year, such as the BSP’s aggressive tightening cycle from May 2022 to October 2023 and lowering of trade barriers for key commodities.

Moving forward, he said inflation would ease further after India lifted trade restrictions on non-basmati white rice.

“This comes at an opportune time for the Philippines since retail rice prices haven’t decreased yet, even with the tariff rate cut in July. A better outlook for the global supply of the grain should help grease things up for retail rice prices to finally slide,” Mr. Dacanay added.

In September, rice inflation sharply slowed to 5.7% from 14.7% in August and 17.9% last year partly due to low base effects. This also marked the lowest rice inflation since the 4.2% print in July 2023.

Meanwhile, Nomura expects inflation to settle at 3.1% this year and 2.3% in 2025.

“Our forecast pencils in CPI inflation at around 1.9% by fourth quarter 2024, slightly below the BSP’s 2-4% target,” it said.

“We still assume the impact of the rice tariff cuts will become evident from October, but this could be partly mitigated by a likely snap back of those food items that provided the biggest drag in September,” it added.

On the other hand, BPI noted risks to this inflation outlook, citing the impact of La Niña and African Swine Fever (ASF).

“Inflation in the Philippines remains sensitive to climate conditions, and another extreme weather event could trigger a spike. On the other hand, stable commodity prices amid China’s economic slowdown may offset these risks. We now expect full-year inflation to settle at 3.2% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025,” it added.

The “favorable” outlook on inflation gives the central bank the flexibility to continue its policy easing path, BPI said.

“We anticipate two more policy rate cuts in 2024, with more cuts likely in 2025, potentially bringing the policy rate down to 4.5% to 5% by the end of 2025,” it said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. last week said the Monetary Board can deliver a 25-basis-point (bp) cut at its Oct. 16 meeting, followed by another at its Dec. 19 meeting.

The central bank chief has said that they are seeking to slash the key rate to as low as 4.5% by end-2025 in order to support the economy.

“But with inflation risks largely dissipating, largely due to rice, the room to cut policy rates in both the October and December rate-setting meetings is vastly increasing,” Mr. Dacanay said.

Nomura likewise expects the BSP to cut by 25 bps each at the last two meetings of the year.

“Beyond that, we also expect BSP to cut in the first three meetings of 2025 before pausing. This would bring the RRP rate to 5% by May 2025 (i.e., a total of 150-bp cuts in this cycle).”

However, analysts noted that the BSP is unlikely to be aggressive in its policy reductions.

“There are several uncertainties right now in the current environment, with inflation risks tied to supply constraints both locally and globally, heightened by geopolitical risks. As such, we don’t expect interest rates to return to the low levels seen in the past decade,” BPI said.

“The Fed’s rate cuts also support further easing by BSP, but we still think BSP is unlikely to be more aggressive with 50 bp clips, like the Fed was last month,” Nomura said.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., also noted the possibility of delayed easing by the BSP.

“We think that BSP will not rescind its commitment to further easing. However, it may be delayed amidst a massive escalation of Middle East tensions that may bring global prices higher, unhinging inflation expectations in the short to medium term,” he said in a Viber message.

RRR CUTS
BPI Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said that the central bank’s latest decision to slash banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) will also support the BSP delivering 25-bp-sized cuts.

“It’s possible that BSP’s substantial RRR cut sufficiently complements a measured approach in reducing the RRP 25 bps at a time so there may be no need to do a jumbo RRP reduction either in October or December,” he said in a Viber message.

The BSP last month announced that it would reduce the RRR for universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7% from 9.5% effective on Oct. 25.

It will also cut the RRR for digital banks by 200 bps to 4%, while the ratio for thrift lenders will be reduced by 100 bps to 1%. Rural and cooperative banks’ RRR will likewise go down by 100 bps to 0%.

Mr. Remolona earlier said that the RRR could be brought down to as low as zero before his term ends in 2029.

“In addition to potential rate cuts, the inflation outlook may also allow the BSP to reduce the RRR further,” BPI said.

BPI said that a 1% cut in the RRR will free up P150 billion in deposits. “The recent 250-bp reduction is expected to release P375 billion in deposits. As a result, we expect intermediation costs to decline, which could drive down lending rates. This could also lead to improvements in the capital markets and banking system as banks will be able to allocate their resources more efficiently,” it added.

Further RRR cuts are also unlikely to stoke inflation, BPI said.

“The BSP has robust liquidity management tools in place to absorb any excess funds released into the system. These tools have been effectively utilized over the years, ensuring that liquidity levels remain within the BSP’s control,” it said. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson