NEW YORK — US oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.

Oil output from the world’s largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook.

The forecasts show that the nearly two-decades old US shale boom is drawing closer to its end, challenging US President Donald Trump’s vision of unleashing higher domestic oil supply.

The DOE in a statement blamed former US President Joe Biden’s policies for charting a “disastrous path” for American energy production and said the EIA outlook is based on policies in place as of the end of last year.

US oil output set new records under Biden’s presidency in both 2023 and 2024, and new drilling permits were issued faster under Biden than Trump’s first term.

As for Trump’s policies, his sweeping tariffs against US trading partners are discouraging shale drillers, who face higher costs on steel and equipment, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. The advisor to industrialized nations slashed its global oil demand and US oil output forecasts for 2025.

Even as the oil industry welcomed Trump’s early moves to ease permitting requirements and expand drilling opportunities, heightened price volatility from an uncertain market outlook has forced producers to scale back investments, Global X research analyst Kenny Zhu said.

US shale oil production will peak at 10 million bpd in 2027, up from about 9.69 million bpd this year, the EIA said. It will then decline to about 9.33 million bpd by 2050, the agency said.

POST-PANDEMIC DEMAND BOOM FADING
The post-pandemic recovery in US oil demand will end next year, forecasts showed. Total product supplied, the EIA’s measure of demand, will edge up from 20.51 million bpd this year to 20.52 million bpd next year, EIA data showed.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, US oil consumption averaged 20.54 million bpd. The all-time record high was in 2005 at 20.80 million bpd.

The EIA last week lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, citing potentially weaker economic activity due to an intensifying US trade war with China.
The agency also sharply cut its oil price forecasts and reduced its outlook for US oil production growth for 2025 and 2026 as a result of the demand uncertainty.

It now expects Brent crude, which serves as the international benchmark, to average $67.87 a barrel this year, down from its earlier forecast of $74.22.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil will average $63.88 a barrel in 2025, EIA said last week, nearly $7 below its prior forecast.

Brent futures, were trading slightly below $65 a barrel on Tuesday, down about 13% so far this year. WTI futures USwere trading around $61.25, down about 14% so far this year. — Reuters

BEIJING — China’s first-quarter economic growth beat expectations, underpinned by solid consumption and industrial output even as policymakers brace for the impact of US tariffs that analysts say pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.

President Donald Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-watering levels, prompting Beijing to slap retaliatory duties on US imports in an intensifying trade war between the world’s two biggest economies that markets fear will lead to a global recession.

Data on Wednesday showed China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, unchanged from the fourth quarter, but beat analysts expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.1%.

The outlook is expected to dim, however, as Washington’s tariff shock hits the crucial export engine, heaping pressure on Chinese leaders as they try to keep the world’s second-largest economy on an even keel and prevent mass job losses.

Government stimulus boosted consumption and supported investment, said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, calling the 5.4% pace “a very good start.”

“In each of the past two years China had a high-flying first quarter and an underwhelming second quarter,” Xu said, adding that “a forceful and timely policy response” is needed given the additional pressure stemming from US tariffs.

A string of recent data has pointed to an uneven economic recovery, with bank lending beating expectations and factory activity picking up speed. But higher unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures are fuelling concerns over weak demand.

Moreover, analysts say a surge in China’s March exports – driven by factories rushing shipments to beat the latest Trump tariffs – will reverse sharply in the months ahead as the hefty US levies take effect.

“UNPRECEDENTED” CHALLENGE
For 2025, the economy is expected to grow at a subdued 4.5% pace year-on-year, the Reuters poll showed, slowing from last year’s 5.0 pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%. Many analysts have sharply slashed their GDP forecasts for this year.

UBS has downgraded its forecast on China’s 2025 growth to 3.4% from 4%, on the assumption that Sino-US tariff hikes will remain in place and that Beijing will roll out additional stimulus.

“We think the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,” analysts at UBS said in a note.
While several other countries have been swept up in US tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the biggest levies.

Last week, Trump lifted duties on China to 145%, prompting Beijing to jack up levies on US goods to 125% and dismissing US trade actions as “a joke”.

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.2% in the first quarter, slowing from 1.6% in October-December.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March after gaining 4.0% in January-February, while factory output growth quickened to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both numbers topped analysts’ forecasts.

The retail sales uptick was driven by sharp double-digit gains in home electronics and furniture sales, helped by the government’s consumer goods trading scheme.

But China’s property downturn remained a drag on overall growth.

Property investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, extending the 9.8% drop in January-February. March new home prices were unchanged on month.

AMPLE ROOM FOR STIMULUS
Policymakers have repeatedly said the country has ample room and tools to bolster the economy and premier Li Qiang this month pledged to roll out more support measures.

Beijing has put boosting consumption as the top priority this year as they try to cushion the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on its trade sector.

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, is expected to hold a meeting later this month to set its policy agenda for the coming months.

In March, China unveiled fiscal measures, including a rise in its annual budget deficit.

Officials have flagged more fiscal and monetary stimulus to cope with rising headwinds.

That followed a blitz of monetary easing steps late last year.Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating, citing rapidly rising government debt and risks to public finances, suggesting a tricky balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption to guard against a trade downturn. — Reuters