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Stocks rise on positive US economic data

STOCKS opened the second quarter on a positive note, trekking higher on the back of positive economic data from the United States amid thinner trading.

The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index rose 0.75% or 59.62 points to finish at 8,039.45 on Monday, April 2. The broader all-shares index likewise climbed 0.6% or 28.99 points to 4,869.55.

“It was up after the economic data coming out from the US on consumer spending. It was lower than the estimate, thereby resulting in the US treasury yields going down to lower than 2.75. This is indicative that aggressive rates increase by the US Fed (Federal Reserve) is still far-fetched,” Diversified Securities, Inc. equities trader Aniceto K. Pangan said by phone.

Mr. Pangan noted that the easing concern for higher interest rates in the US will creative positive sentiment in emerging markets such as the Philippines.

Four sectoral indices moved to positive territory, led by holding firms with a 1.62% uptick or 126.78 points to 7,965.87. The mining and oil counter jumped 1.49% or 162.58 points to 11,049.51; property gained 0.96% or 35.12 points to 3,681.97; while industrial added 0.39% or 44.72 points to 11,474.37.

On the other hand, services dropped 0.34% or 5.68 points to 1,666.14, alongside financials that gave up 0.33% or 6.97 points to 2,082.70.

Some 1.59 billion issues switched hands, valued at P4.55 billion, significantly lower than the P7.82-billion turnover in the previous session. Analysts attributed the day’s thin trading to the absence of investors who are only just returning from the Lenten break.

Advancers prevailed for the day, with 131 against 81 that declined and 36 that closed flat. Net foreign outflows dipped to P625.3 million on Monday, lower than the P1.12-billion in the previous session.

Twelve of the 20 most actively traded stocks saw gains, with Now Corp. soaring 12.33% to P9.20 each. MRC Allied Corp. also gained 6.9% to 62 centavos each, while SM Investments Corp. added 3.05% to P945 each. — Arra B. Francia

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Dominguez urges Swiss investors to invest in the Philippines

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance (DoF) has invited Swiss businessmen to set up shop in the Philippines as the Duterte administration pursues more reforms to streamline investment amid its wide consumer base.
“We hope Swiss businesses could find a home here — a happy one. We are working very hard to improve the ease of doing business and reducing our (Foreign) Investment Negative List to the bare minimum. From being mocked as ‘The Sick Man of Asia,’ the Philippines is now seen as the region’s next economic powerhouse,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said during March 6 meeting with members of the Philippine-Swiss Business Council.
He said the Philippines’ “young and talented labor force, our large consumer market and our determined participation in building a Southeast Asian common market produce much headroom for sustainable growth.” — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

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Philippines’ factory activity improves in March

FACTORY ACTIVITY in the Philippines improved last month despite higher input costs and selling prices due to the tax reform law that took effect on Jan. 1, according to an IHS Markit survey conducted for Nikkei.

The Philippines’ Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) grew to 51.5 in March from 50.8 in February on output, new order, and export growth.

The first quarter average however was the lowest since the survey started in 2016.

The Philippines placed third among select Association of Southeast Asian Nations member-states, an improvement from placing fifth in February, but was overtaken by Myanmar and Vietnam’s 53.7 and 51.6, respectively.

“Growth in the Philippines manufacturing sector accelerated into the end of the first quarter. Faster rises in output and new business boosted the headline PMI, while a slower fall in employment was seen,” the report read.

“The stronger upturn saw business expectations improve, with optimism at an eight-month high. This encouraged firms to scale up purchasing activity and build-up inventories,” it added.

The report also noted that the new excise taxes “continued to push up inflationary pressures during March,” that led input costs and selling prices to climb “the highest in the survey history.” — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

March inflation could have topped 4%

By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter

HEADLINE INFLATION likely quickened further in March to breach four percent amid rising fuel and power costs, analysts said in a BusinessWorld poll, noting that tax reform and a weaker peso have stoked price pressures.
A poll among nine economists last week yielded a median forecast of 4.2% under the 2012 base year, which is a fresh peak for monthly inflation. This compares to the 3.9% rate logged in February and the adjusted 3.1% for March 2017.
If realized, this would settle above the 2-4% target range set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), but will fall within the 3.8-4.6% forecast given late last week.
Under the old 2006 base, inflation likely clocked 4.75%.
The central bank has cited a higher power generation charge and retail pump prices due to the depreciation of the peso as upside pressures, partly offset by lower costs of cooking gas.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official inflation data on Thursday.
Inflation last pierced the four-percent mark — using the 2012 base — at 4.2% in July and August 2014.
Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan, market economist at the Land Bank of the Philippines, said faster increases in the costs of petroleum, food and non-alcoholic drinks likely led to the overall surge in prices. “The costs of these goods accelerated, fuelled by the hike in excise taxes under the TRAIN law and the depreciation of the peso, which made foreign goods and services more expensive in local currency terms,” Mr. Dumalagan said via e-mail, referring to the impact of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act that took effect Jan. 1.
TRAIN, enacted as Republic Act No. 10963, imposed an additional P2.50 excise tax per liter of diesel and P3 per liter for kerosene, which came at a time of three-year highs for world crude prices. The new law also introduced additional taxes on cars, coal, sugar-sweetened drinks and a host of other items that likely drove up prices of other widely used goods and services.
Other analysts said higher prices of rice, fish, meat and vegetables drove up food costs last month.
At the same time, the peso weakened to a fresh 11-year-low last month as it continued to trade above P52 versus the dollar.
Nomura economist Euben Paracuelles expects inflation to have settled at 4.2% in March, and will likely keep moving faster: “I still think inflation remains on an upward trajectory driven by the combination of a pickup in fuel & electricity prices, the impact of ‘TRAIN’ tax reforms continuing to feed through, and still-strong demand conditions.”
The BSP said they see inflation peaking within July-September, before averaging at 3.9% for the full year.
With inflation further picking up pace, more analysts are now considering that a rate hike may happen sooner than later, with some betting the change in rates as early as next month.
“Though the current monetary policy settings are deemed to be appropriate, thus far, I think there’s a growing chance of a modest monetary tightening within the year, especially if inflation will continue to accelerate and depreciation pressures on the peso will be persistent,” said Angelo B. Taningco, economist at Security Bank Corp.
Rajiv Biswas, chief economist for Asia Pacific at IHS Markit, said the case for a rate hike “will become more compelling” by May should inflation remain elevated and economic growth robust.
BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. has acknowledged that inflation will be “accelerated” within 2018, but noted that price pressures “will come down soon enough.” The central bank sees inflation settling back within target and averaging three percent.
Inflation

Central bank unfazed by pace of price pickup

THERE IS STILL NO NEED to raise policy rates in the Philippines despite rising inflation pressures, a senior central bank official said, noting that calls for a rate hike bare a “myopic” view of the economy.
In a four-page commentary, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo sought to allay concerns that the central bank is running monetary policy too loose as it has kept interest rates within the 2.5-3.5% range since mid-2016, despite rising global yields and with inflation on the rise.
A number of analysts have been flagging the need for the BSP to raise rates since last year, saying this move is needed to keep local yields competitive. Among the reasons cited are elevated inflation — with expectations that the pace will quicken in the coming months — as well as the gradual rate increases in the United States.
“While these concerns are relatively valid, the BSP believes that these developments — along with other ignored but equally important facts — continue to validate the current monetary policy stance,” Mr. Guinigundo said over the weekend.
“While there are pressures to raise interest rates, our careful assessment of the data and facts does not point to immediate rate hikes.”
The BSP kept policy interest rates steady on Thursday last week despite the US Federal Reserve’s tightening bias and inflation pressures intensifying at home especially due to higher taxes as a result of tax reform that took effect in January.
Mr. Guinigundo said the central bank is keeping an eye on liquidity and other financial conditions, even as there is no urgent need to tweak benchmark borrowing rates for now.
Inflation averaged 3.7% for the first two months of 2018, with the BSP seeing a steady ascent towards a peak in July-September. The full-year pace is expected at 3.9% under the 2012 base year, still within the 2-4% target range which the central bank had set using the old 2006-based consumer price index.
“While some market indications point to rising inflation expectations, nothing at this point suggests that the market expects persistent significant surge in consumer prices through 2019 that would warrant a change in the monetary policy stance,” the central bank official added.
He also stood firm that the BSP charts its own course in terms of monetary policy, and does not have to match the Fed’s tightening moves.
The Fed raised rates by another 25 basis points last month, but this was followed by a status quo decision from the local central bank.
“In practice, these trade-offs imply that monetary policy has real and significant economic costs,” Mr. Guinigundo said.
“On one hand, when a central bank raises interest rates prematurely, it runs the risk of the economy slowing down. On the other hand, when the central bank raises interest rates too late, it could… fuel inflationary pressures leading to overheating.”
However, he pointed out that the BSP does not discount the need for higher interest rates should domestic conditions change and “targets may be compromised.” — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

Corporate regulator eases financial reporting rules for small businesses

THE SECURITIES and Exchange Commission (SEC) has eased financial reporting requirements for small businesses as part of a continuing government effort to facilitate entrepreneurship.
“The Commission, in its meeting held on 22 March 2018, approved the adoption of the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (PFRS) for Small Entities as part of SEC’s rules and regulations on financial reporting,” according to SEC Memorandum Circular No. 5, series of 2018, dated March 26, that was published in a newspaper on Thursday last week and posted on the regulator’s website.
Adoption of the PFRS for Small Entities, in turn, prompted revision of Section 2 of Securities Regulation Code (SRC) Rule 68, or the general guide to financial statement preparation.
Prior to the release of the new guidelines, the SEC had required small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to observe uniform financial reporting standards that simplified the principles in the full PFRS for recognizing assets, liabilities, income and expenses.
“The changes in effect made easier and (simpler) the reporting of small enterprises,” SEC Chairperson Teresita J. Herbosa said in a mobile phone message when sought for explanation, citing SEC General Accountant Emmanuel Y. Artiza.
“The Financial Reporting Standards Council came out with said framework as one of ease-of-doing-business initiative as recommended by the Association of (Certified Public Accountants) in Public Practice.”
The new framework this time distinguished medium-sized entities as those with total assets of more than P100 million to P350 million or total liabilities of more than P100 million to P250 million.
The PFRS for Small Entities will now apply to businesses with total assets or liabilities of P3 million to P100 million, that are required to file financial statements under Part 2 of SRC Rule 68, are not in the process of filing their financial statements for the purpose of issuing any class of instruments to the public and are not holders of secondary licenses.
The new rules will not apply to small businesses which have operations or investments that are based or conducted in another country. These should instead use the full PFRS or PFRS for SMEs.
The circular also exempted from mandatory adoption of the PFRS for Small Entities those small businesses that are subsidiaries of a parent company reporting under the full PFRS or PFRs for SMEs, are subsidiaries of a foreign parent moving towards International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) or IFRS for SMEs, and joint ventures of associates that form part of a group reporting under the full PFRS or PFRS for SMEs, among others.
Should a small business breach the prescribed threshold in terms of total assets or total liabilities and thus fall under a different classification, its annual financial statement should be prepared based on the higher framework, the circular read.
The SEC may consider other cases as valid exceptions from the mandatory adoption of PFRS for Small Entities.
“If a small entity that uses the PFRS for Small Entities in a current year breaches the floor or ceiling of the size criteria at the end of that current year, and the event that caused the change is considered ‘significant and continuing,’ the entity shall transition to the applicable financial reporting framework in the next accounting period,” according to the circular.
If such event is not considered “significant and continuing,” the entity can continue to use the same financial reporting framework it currently uses, according to the circular.
Management will determine what is “significant and continuing” based on the relevant qualitative and quantitative factors; but in general, a fourth or more of the consolidated total assets is considered significant.
The SEC requires entities meeting the prescribed criteria to apply the PFRS for Small Entities for the annual period beginning on or after Jan. 1, 2019, although the regulator will allow early application of the new reporting rules. — Krista Angela M. Montealegre