How PSEi member stocks performed — March 26, 2019
Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Tuesday, March 26, 2019.
Philippine Stock Exchange’s most active stocks by value turnover — March 26, 2019.
Foreign domestic workers account for 3.6% of HK economy, study finds
By Gillian M. Cortez
Reporter
FOREIGN domestic workers account for 3.6% of Hong Kong’s gross domestic product (GDP) yet still suffer from financial inclusion, according to a study conducted by a Hong Kong charity trying to quantify the economic contribution of household help and caregivers.
Hong Kong-based Enrich, in its “The Value of Care” report for 2019, said: “This report reveals that migrant domestic workers contribute significantly to economies both in their home countries and destination cities, but yet are financially excluded and return home financially worse off.”
Some 3.6% of Hong Kong GDP is generated by migrant domestic workers, with Enrich noting, “(T)he research shows that in 2018, migrant domestic workers (MDWs) contributed an estimated $12.6 billion (HK$98.9 billion) to Hong Kong’s economy, representing 3.6% of the GDP.”
Over half, or 55%, of domestic workers in Hong Kong are Filipinos, Enrich reported. In Hong Kong, some of MDWs 71% work in child care and 40% have responsibilities in elderly care. The Labor Department of Hong Kong projects that 460,000 MDWs will be needed by 2030, with 180,000 required for elderly care.
Enrich also said that Hong Kong projects demand for 600,000 MDWs by 2047.
Enrich said employing MDWs enable women in Hong Kong to have a greater presence in the labor force. Without MDWs, 49% of married Hong Kong mothers between the ages of 25 and 54 may find it difficult to join the work force.
“(I)f they do employ a MDW, the labour force participation increases to 78%. By enabling more women to join the labour force, MDWs indirectly add $2.6 billion (HK$20.1 billion) to Hong Kong’s economy, USD$2.6 billion (SG$3.5 billion) to Singapore’s economy and $0.23 billion (929 million ringgit) to Malaysia. This has an additional contribution to family well-being,” Enrich reported.
The study also underlined the economic impact of MDWs in Hong Kong, with 385,000 such workers generating an estimated HK$71.2 billion.
Despite the positive impact MDWs bring to the Hong Kong economy, Enrich said over 80% of MDWs are in debt, much of it incurred to leave their respective countries. Hong Kong MDWs take an average of 19 months to clear off their debt.
It said the indebtedness level of Hong Kong MDWs is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, the study reported.
Enrich recommends “Improved educational opportunities and financial literacy training to ensure domestic workers are equipped with the knowledge to ensure their long-term financial security.”
DTI ‘fearless forecast’ for WB rankings is gain of 30 places
THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said the Philippines may jump more than 30 spots in the World Bank’s (WB) Doing Business ranking following recent reforms.
Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said 25 out of 43 planned reforms targeted for the study’s current reporting cycle have been completed.
“If the data last year are corrected and with all these reforms, they will count (towards to Philippine score); We’ll do better than 94th. My fearless forecast is (a climb of) 30 notches,” Mr. Lopez told BusinessWorld last week in Makati City.
In the 2019 Doing Business report, the Philippines fell 11 places to 124th out of about 190 economies annually surveyed by the bank.
The bank usually gathers data in the 12 months to May and releases the Doing Business report in October.
For this cycle, the DTI hopes the concerns it raised against the bank’s methodology are addressed.
The DTI and the Department of Finance claim the last report is inaccurate, particularly the Getting Credit indicator, the main drag to the Philippines’ score.
The departments said the Philippines could have obtained a higher score if the World Bank included data from all the credit bureaus or even from just the biggest bureau. But the bank depended solely on the Bankers Association of the Philippines Credit Bureau Inc. which has the smallest database of borrower-entrepreneurs.
Mr. Lopez however is concerned that not all completed reforms may be credited.
Nevertheless, he said there is cause for optimism as the reforms are more substantial than those counted in the last cycle, adding that two months remain to complete pending reforms.
The upgrades to the business environment include Republic Act (RA) 11232 or the Revised Corporation Code and RA 11057 or the Personal Property Security Act of 2018.
The Revised Corporation Code removes the minimum paid-in capital requirement and promotes electronic filing of articles of incorporation, among others.
The Personal Property Security law adds items that can be pledged as a collateral for a loan, which now includes a borrower’s inventory, accounts receivable and agricultural products.
Other reforms include the Bureau of Internal Revenue’s (BIR) recent memorandum circular issuances meant to allow new business taxpayers in Quezon City to start operations even when still waiting for the printing and delivery of its receipts/invoices by BIR accredited-printers, as well as the Supreme Court increasing the amount covered in small claims cases filed before trial courts in Metro Manila. — Janina C. Lim
DBM releases salary, maintenance funding rules during budget deadlock
By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter
THE Department of Budget and Management (DBM) released fresh guidelines on the government’s salary and maintenance funding requirements for the second quarter pending the resolution of the 2019 budget deadlock.
Circular Letter 2019-7 capped the release of agency budgets for salaries of government workers, maintenance and other operating expenses, and capital outlays at 25% of 2018 levels. This is similar to the authority given by the DBM for national government agencies during the first quarter.
The order was given “pending enactment of the General Appropriations Act (GAA)” for 2019, as signed by DBM Officer-in-Charge Janet B. Abuel.
Legislators have been deadlocked over the P3.757-trillion national budget for three months, with the Senate refusing to accept the “unconstitutional” insertions allegedly made by members of the House of Representatives after their bicameral meetings.
The DBM said disbursements for personnel services are to include payment of the mid-year bonus, clothing and uniform allowances, mandatory government contributions to the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. and the Employees Compensation Insurance plans, as well as for the creation of new positions.
For capital outlays, budget releases between April and June are to cover regular programs as well as “ongoing foreign-assisted or locally funded projects” that appear in the 2018 budget or the 2019 proposed spending plan, “whichever is lower in amount.”
The country is currently operating on a re-enacted 2018 budget, which leaves new programs and even big-ticket infrastructure projects unfunded.
The government expects to spend P3.78 trillion this year, lower than the P3.833 trillion estimate back in October.
Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III yesterday signed the budget bill “with strong reservations,” which paves the way for its transmittal to Malacañang for review and eventual signing into law.
Meanwhile, the DBM said agencies will need to request a Special Allotment Release Order for other funding needs not covered by the circular. This include subsidies for government-owned corporations, internal revenue allotment for provinces, cities, towns and barangays, and the requirements for the fourth tranche of salary increases for state workers.
President Rodrigo R. Duterte signed Executive Order No. 76 on March 15 to provide funds for a fresh salary increase for all government workers ahead of the passage of the 2019 budget.
Other expenses will need the submission of a Special Budget Request, including centrally-managed items of departments, charges against the Pension and Gratuity Fund like the payment of benefits to retirees, charges against Special Purpose Funds and against automatic appropriations.
Economic managers were forced to slash their growth targets to 6-7% this year from 7-8% previously, because it will be “very difficult” to catch up with the rollout of infrastructure projects after missing much of the dry-season window for construction.
Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said a budget deadlock that lasts until April will bring down full-year growth to 6.1-6.3%, well under the government’s original target and likely level with the 2018 pace of 6.2%.
DoLE outlines compliance requirements for OSH Law
THE Department of Labor and Employment (DoLE) is requiring all establishments to organize seminars on occupational safety and health (OSH), after the labor department released guidelines for OSH compliance last week.
In Labor Advisory 04-19 dated March 13, the DoLE required establishments to follow OSH-related guidelines after the issuance of Department 198-18 or the Implementing Rules and regulations of the OSH Law released in January. Some of the prescribed orders in line with the advisory require employers companies to conduct OSH seminars.
Labor Secretary Silvestre H. Bello III said in a statement on Tuesday: “Providing safety seminars and training to workers is an empowering way of building and sustaining a preventative occupational safety and health culture which results in enhanced productivity at workplaces.”
DoLE said in the advisory that all establishments “are encouraged to immediately conduct mandatory Workers’ OSH seminars for all workers/employees at no cost to the workers and attendance at such seminar shall be considered compensable working time.”
“The mandatory Workers’ OSH Seminar may be conducted by the safety officer of the establishment or any DoLE accredited/certified OSH practitioner or consultant,” DoLE added.
Employers may access the Training Module for the OSH Workers’ Seminar at the Bureau of Working Conditions’ (BWC) website, www.bwc.dole.gov.ph.
Section 4(a) of the OSH Law, or Republic Act 11058, states that it is the duty of employers, contractors, and subcontractors to inform their workers about the hazards and risks involved in the occupation entered in and provide appropriate job instruction and orientation regarding OSH.
The OSH Law also states in Section 16 (b) that all workers are required to attend an eight-hour OSH seminar which should include a joint employer-employee orientation on safety and health standards.
The advisory also said that DoLE will assist all establishments with orientations on the OSH Law and assist in creating an Action Plan in case OSH violations are found.
Establishments are also required to send the following OSH reports to DoLE: the Employer’s Work Accident/Injury Report (WAIR); Annual Work Accident/Injury Exposure Data Report (AEDR); the Annual Medical Report (AMR); and OSH Committee Report.
Also laid out in Labor Advisory 04-19 is the responsibility of establishments to determine their risk classification based on the Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment and Control (HIRAC). Levels of classification are low-risk, medium risk, or high risk.
“The results of the HIRAC and the number of workers shall be bases for determining the required minimum number of safety officers, OH (occupational health) personnel, medical services and facilities,” DoLE said. — Gillian M. Cortez
Contact centers gear up for higher-value jobs
THE Contact Center Association of the Philippines (CCAP) said the sector has been investing “heavily” to upgrade talent amid the growing demand for professionals who can take on higher-value tasks.
“Mid- and high-skilled jobs are seeing more demand in our industry. Our professionals are now finding themselves more engaged in complicated tasks that require experience or specialized expertise paired with abstract reasoning and situational response/autonomy,” CCAP President Jojo J. Uligan said in a Tuesday statement.
“The industry is investing heavily in training for both entry-level and tenured positions,” he said.
Based on the results of an internal study by CCAP, mid- and high-skilled jobs in the contact center sector account for 85% of positions.
Earlier, market research firm Frost & Sullivan estimated that about 73% of the global business process management industry will involve mid- and high-skilled jobs by 2022.
The sector now focuses on delivering “customer experience” with the aim of offering quick and accurate resolutions, personalized interactions, self-service options, and interaction via customers’ preferred channels.
Delivering these requires contact center professionals to learn how to complement their work with automation, data analytics and other emerging technologies, CCAP said.
Currently, the business process management (BPM) industry generates annual revenue of $27.1 billion.
The contact center segment accounts for more than half, generating annual revenue of $14.6 billion and employing more than 890,000 call center professionals.
The Philippine BPM industry accounts for about 18% of the total global IT-BPM industry of about $83 billion, CCAP said, citing data from the global think tank The Everest Group.
In a previous analysis by consultancy Frost & Sullivan, tasks that require basic skills are projected to decline 29% worldwide by 2022.
At the same time, mid-skill jobs are expected to rise 12%, while positions that require higher skills are projected to grow 19%. — Janina C. Lim
Dairy production seen boosted by greater use of corn silage
DAIRY PRODUCTION can rise to as much as eight to 10 liters of milk per cow from the usual two to four liters with greater use of fermented corn feed known as silage, the Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR) said.
The output gains were documented in a BAR-funded study conducted by researchers Nilo E. Padilla and Diosdado C. Cañete of Isabela State University (ISU) between 2017 until 2019.
“The demand for corn silage is quite big, not just in Isabela but also in other provinces,” Glacelle Alyne C. Malinao, BAR Coordinator for Livestock, told BusinessWorld in Quezon City on Monday.
Silage is fermented, high-moisture feed derived from various crops stored in silos or airtight plastic containers, among other production methods.
In a statement, BAR said that the project was piloted at Malaya Development Cooperative (MDC) and Quezon Dairy Farmers Cooperative, with farmers planting their own corn until the stalks 70 to 85 days old. The crop is then harvested, packed in 30 to 40 kilogram polyethylene bags, with the air vacuumed out.
The silage can be used for feed after three weeks of storage using this packing method, according to BAR.
Ms. Malinao said the equipment costs around P236,000 per set, though other providers may charge more.
“The silage can be stored for as little as a week, but it can be stored longer to ferment it more,” Ms. Malinao said.
The projected cost of corn silage per kilo is P4.15, according to Ms. Malinao.
Bernalin P. Cadayong, Senior Economic Development Specialist of BAR’s Technology Commercialization Division, said that corn silage can also form the basis of a business for farmers’ cooperatives.
Ms. Cadayong said silage can be resorted to during the dry season where the other feeds are less available.
“If you have stored silage, you have a backup feed for the cattle,” Ms. Cadayong said.
The National Dairy Authority (NDA) has said that it aims to make the Philippines 10% milk sufficient in 2022 with plans to import 1,500 dairy cattle this year, and 2,500 dairy goats per year for the next three years.
The NDA is also working with institutions and governments of other countries with expertise in dairy production to teach farmers new technology and practices. — Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio
ANZ Research cuts 2019 GDP forecast for PHL to 6%
By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter
ANZ BANKING GROUP’s research arm downgraded its growth forecast for the Philippines this year to a four-year low, amid delays in the passage of the budget.
In a report, ANZ Research said it now estimates economic growth of 6% for 2019, down from the 6.1% estimate issued in the last quarter.
This is broadly in line with forecast adjustments made by President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s economic team. The economic managers scaled down their growth target to 6-7% earlier this month, from 7-8% previously.
The Philippines will remain in a group of the region’s fastest-growing economies, following India at 7.1%, Vietnam at 6.7%, and China at 6.3%, ANZ Research said.
“In the Philippines, the delay in the approval of the 2019 budget notwithstanding, the government’s objective of stepping up infrastructure spending remains,” ANZ said in its quarterly report released yesterday.
“Combined with the earlier discussed possibility of sizeable cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) which may not be fully sterilised, prospects of renewed strength in credit growth and imports by implication cannot be ruled out.”
The P3.757-trillion national budget has been left unsigned for three months over a dispute between Congressional chambers about unauthorized modifications made to the document after bicameral session. Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III signed the bill yesterday “with reservations” which pave the way for its submission to Malacañang for review and signing into law.
Meanwhile, the inflation downtrend is expected to be sustained for the rest of the year, with ANZ Research now seeing the full-year indicator at 2.9%, marking a sharp drop from 2018’s 5.2%. This is expected to bode well for long-term Treasury and corporate bonds, and should likewise prod the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to reduce key rates.
“We now expect 75bps (basis points) of cuts in the policy rate in 2019, starting from May,” ANZ Research said.
The Monetary Board voted to keep rates unchanged in the 4.25-5.25% range last week, staying dovish even after new BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said that he sees room to unwind last year’s series of rate increases worth 175bp.
However, ANZ Research said further policy cuts coupled with RRR reductions “will ultimately weigh on the peso.” The bank sees the currency trading at P53 against the dollar by year’s end. The peso has been trading at the P52 level in recent weeks.
Mr. Diokno has said that the 18% RRR may be reduced by one percentage point every quarter for the next four quarters, but BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said that the Monetary Board remains cautious about timing. A one percentage point cut in the reserves will release around P90 billion in additional liquidity.
“The latest reading for short-term time deposits, a proxy for the price of money, shows that we are now at the highest level since late 2008,” said Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila. “Given the scarcity of liquidity, market players are now paying a premium to secure it.”
South Korean officials to press for Iran sanctions waiver in United States
WASHINGTON — South Korean government officials are expected to press for extending a sanctions waiver on Iran’s petroleum exports that expires in May on a visit to Washington this week.
South Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs Yoon Kang-hyun and other leaders will meet with US State Department officials on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss the waiver issued in November to keep buying Iranian oil in exchange for having reduced such purchases, the Seoul government said in a news release on Monday.
The Trump administration has unilaterally reimposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the lifeblood of its economy, as it seeks to curb Tehran’s nuclear and missile ambitions and its influence in Syria and other countries in the Middle East.
Washington issued sanctions waivers for eight economies in November, including for South Korea, Iran’s fourth largest oil customer in Asia. But the administration has said it wants the exports to go to zero as quickly as possible.
The US goal is to reduce the number of sanctions waivers and to cut Iran’s oil exports about 20 percent, to below 1 million barrels of oil per day from May, sources said this month.
The South Korean officials will meet with the State Department’s top energy diplomat Francis Fannon on Thursday. On Wednesday they will meet with Brian Hook, the US special representative for Iran, and David Peyman, the deputy assistant secretary of state for counter threat finance and sanctions.
A State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed the meeting with Peyman. Officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the other meetings.
Peyman met with South Korean officials in Asia earlier this month. He offered “to continue to closely consult on the extension of sanctions exemption and Korean companies’ technical issues regarding trade with Iran,” a statement from Seoul’s foreign ministry said at the time.
South Korea is a large buyer of a light oil called condensates from Iran and has told a former US official that there are few options for getting the same quality of condensate from other suppliers.
South Korea’s oil imports from Iran fell 12.5 percent year-on-year in February, customs data showed this month.
Yonhap news agency quoted a South Korean official as saying that Seoul has had discussions since November with Washington on gaining an extended exception and that ending the purchases of condensates would affect its economy. “No extension means no imports of Iranian condensate,” an official told Yonhap. — Reuters
Fears of China growth slowdown, trade war are receding — StanChart
HONG KONG — Standard Chartered PLC (StanChart) Chief Executive Bill Winters said fears over a slowdown in China’s economic growth and the impact of the Sino-US trade tensions are “receding a bit.”
“China has taken modest actions to re-stimulate the economy,” Winters said at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday.
“We feel quite good about China,” he said.
Since July 2018, the United States has imposed duties on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, including $50 billion in technology and industrial goods at 25% and $200 billion in other products at 10%.
China has hit back with tariffs on about $110 billion worth of US goods, including soybeans and other commodities.
The eight-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies has raised costs, roiled financial markets, shrunk US farm exports and disrupted
StanChart, which makes most of its revenue in Asia, has seen its fortunes slump as restructuring under Winters repaired a balance sheet hit by excessive lending in the previous decade, but left the bank struggling to lift profit.
Last month, the bank unveiled plans to double returns and dividends in three years by cutting $700 million in costs and boosting income, even though it missed its previous targets in tough market conditions.
The 150-year-old group’s latest plans coincide with a risk of a slowdown in its core emerging markets due to the trade war as well as economic uncertainties in China and Britain, two of its main markets. — Reuters
Peso strengthens against dollar amid fears of recession in US
THE PESO strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday on the back of profit taking as worries over a possible recession in the United States lingered.
The local unit closed the session yesterday at P52.445 versus the greenback, 7.5 centavos stronger than the P52.52 finish on Monday.
The peso traded stronger the whole day, opening the session at P52.45 per dollar. It rose as high as P52.37, while its intraday low stood at P52.49 versus the US currency.
Trading volume thinned further to $770.05 million from the $886.2 million that switched hands on Monday.
“The peso strengthened due to profit taking following the stronger dollar demand yesterday on wide market risk-off sentiment,” a trader said in an e-mail on Tuesday.
The wide risk-off sentiment was attributed to fears of a possible recession in the US after its yield curve inverted last week.
On Friday, yields on the 10-year Treasury note slipped below the rate of the three-month security, causing the yield curve to invert for the first time since 2007.
“They have a yield inversion in three months versus 10 years. That’s an indicative of possible recession in the future. That’s why there’s a risk-off sentiment,” another trader said in a phone interview.
The latest inversion was mainly due to the dovish pronouncements coming from the US Federal Reserve, saying that they would keep interest rates steady this year, as well as a slew of disappointing economic data in Europe and concerns over the Brexit deal.
The second trader added that the peso traded “directionless” yesterday as market players are looking for more catalysts.
For today, the first trader expects the peso to move between P52.35 and P52.55, while the other gave a P52.32-P52.60 range. — Karl Angelo N. Vidal
Bourse recovers on bargain hunt despite concerns
By Arra B. Francia, Reporter
LOCAL SHARES recovered on Tuesday as investors went on bargain hunting following Monday’s massive sell-off, persistent fears about a slowing global economy notwithstanding.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose 44.01 points or 0.56% to finish 7,907.03, while the all-shares index went up by 17.58 points or 0.36% to end 4,860.45.
“Index took a breather today after yesterday’s almost 200-point drop as the PSEi closed the day 44.01 points up,” Papa Securities Corp. Sales Associate Gabriel Jose F. Perez noted in an e-mail.
Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan also attributed the PSEi’s decline to bargain hunting. “Investors resorted to bargain hunting after the strong sell-off Monday, after US markets opened the trading week lower when data showed weakness on the global economic front… This happened while investors continued to fret over the inversion of the [US] yield curve [signaling a possible US recession ahead],” Mr. Limlingan said in a mobile phone message.
Financial markets have been reacting to the US yield curve inversion, with long-term bonds now having lower interest rates compared to short-term ones.
Many major Asian markets recovered, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, South Korea’s KOSPI and India’s S&P BSE Sensex rising 2.15%, 2.57%, 0.15%, 0.18% and 0.36%, respectively, although the Shanghai SE Composite dropped 1.51%.
This time, four of the six local sectoral indices edged up: property by 28.73 points or 0.7% to 4,085.33, holding firms by 51.95 points or 0.67% to 7,778.67, financials by 7.06 points or 0.4% to 1,763.95 and industrials by 41.54 points or 0.35% to 11,682.16.
The remaining two sub-indices dropped: mining and oil by 28.40 points or 0.34% to 8,112.83 and services by 1.56 points or 0.09% to 1,594.90.
Investors abroad remained predominantly bullish for a fourth straight trading day, with net foreign buying nearly halved to P369.81 million from Monday’s P666.904 million. Some 971.314 million shares worth P5.388 billion changed hands on Tuesday, compared to Monday’s 708.80 million worth P5.39 billion. This time, stocks that gained outnumbered those that dropped, 112 to 76, while 42 others ended flat.
Papa Securities’ Mr. Perez noted that Ayala Land, Inc. (up 1.48%), SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (0.13%) and SM Investments Corp. (1.18%) saw the biggest net foreign buying on Tuesday at P230 million, P183 million and P60 million, respectively.
Fourteen of Tuesday’s 20 most active stocks gained, including Security Bank Corp. (2.56%) and Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (up 1.7%). The same list showed six losers, including Cemex Holdings Philippines, Inc (-4.73%) and Wilcon Depot, Inc. (-3.82%).