China’s power and territorial expansion

Although I am certain of being at least 37.5% Chinese from my maternal grandparents, I have only seen the mainland from a hill in Hong Kong. But I guess I have tried to explore my Chinese-ness through my readings (in English translation) and, when I was younger, learning and practicing T’ai Chi almost every day.

A fascinating book that I have recently begun to read is The Hundred Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury. The book is described on it is cover as “China’s Secret Strategy to replace America as the Global Superpower.” The Hundred Year Marathon has for its starting line the rise to power of Mao Tse Tung in 1949; and therefore, the strategic goal is for China to be the greatest global power by 2049.

Pillsbury’s impressive credentials include being an analyst at Rand Corporation, staff work for US Congressional Committees, and research fellowships at Harvard. He has worked with the CIA and the Department of National Defense of the United States. He learned to read, write, and speak Mandarin as a young man; and in his career, obtained access to many confidential Chinese government papers, including those on Chinese culture and strategy. He admits to have made many mistakes in his earlier recommendations due to faulty and probably naïve analysis of the Chinese situation.

From what I have read so far, I have come to the conclusion that nothing will stop China from taking over the South China Sea, as it already has in fact done de facto. And nothing will stop it from controlling Benham (Philippine) Rise and the Sulu Seas, which our President is allowing them to patrol. I do not presume to know what really is our President’s reason for the generous hospitality toward the Chinese; but certainly, the United States, notably under President Trump is probably too naïve to realize that these moves are just part of executing China’s strategy to become the world’s greatest power, economically, politically, and eventually, militarily. Besides, the US has to temper its moves with China since it needs China’s help to rein in North Korea’s missile aggressiveness. Fat chance that China will in fact accommodate the US far enough on this. It is more advantageous for China to keep the North Korea ace vs. US global power. For instance, it seems to me that the US cannot get too aggressive on the South China Sea issue for fear of offending China.

The warring states through the centuries among the numerous regions that now comprise China spawned strategic political and military thinkers some of whom wrote down their ideas. The most famous of these of course, is Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. There are other writings, it seems, on for example, The Art of Governance. Pillsbury studied these materials in their original versions, and thus was able to understand more deeply their meanings than he would have if he had relied on translations. For example, we are reminded that, as in T’ai Chi, rather than face force frontally with force, one should astutely move obliquely and use the enemy’s own force to defeat him/her.

It seems Chinese culture encourages discretion and appropriate secrecy in matters of business, politics, and war. Timing, it seems is everything. Even deception should be used, if necessary, to throw off the enemy. If necessary, one must be willing to lose, or accept humiliation in the context of the bigger victory desired (palugi muna). This is probably the reason why China has only now begun to assert its military might, by building military bases on islands in the South China Sea. It doesn’t matter if they destroy corals and deplete marine life in the process. It doesn’t matter if fisherfolk in the ASEAN area suffer from loss of incomes. They are focused on their goal to control power and the sea lanes in this part of the world.

The United States is less than 300 years old as a nation, if we count from the Declaration of Independence. Chinese culture and civilization dates back through several millennia. Of course, Confucian ethics seems closer to what Western democracies can appreciate. And the laudable educational and civil service systems of China owe their traditions to Confucianism. However, Pillsbury refers to the “hawks” in the Chinese government, who were once considered a fringe element in the Communist Party vs. the “doves” who tended closer to Confucian values. Pillsbury concludes that the US intelligence agencies have failed to appreciate that the “hawks” are no longer on the fringes of policy and governance; but that they are in fact now the dominant influence. Pillsbury describes Xi Jin Ping as the “superhawk” who due to his relatively young age, can be expected to remain in power longer than his more dovish predecessors. The marathon to become the world’s most powerful nation on earth is thus expected to proceed consistently toward its goal.

The Chinese it seems, having an older culture, tend to think more deeply, more astutely, and longer term than Western democracies. Their economic moves through high investments in resource rich Africa, and the concrete initiatives to build the Silk Road toward the West are strategic and long term. The goodwill investments in ASEAN in competition with the USA have borne much fruit, especially with the Duterte government’s acquiescence.

It seems a certainty that smart, astute China will be the eventual winner in this game of global dominance. What will happen to our little but strategically located country in the context of these developments depends on how skillfully we dance the Tinikling or do the T’ai Chi. Shall we benefit, or do we suffer?

Teresa S. Abesamis is a former professor at the Asian Institute of Management and an independent development management consultant.

tsabesamis0114@yahoo.com