THE Department of Finance said economic growth of over 7% in the second quarter is possible on the back of the double-digit rise in merchandise exports.

“The Q2 GDP (gross domestic product) will be better than Q1, will be a lot better because exports for the first half are 13.6% up. Last year it was negative 3.5%,” Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran told reporters late last week at the Finance department headquarters.

“We think the numbers are better. It’s possible that it has even breached 7%.”

Asked for his estimate, Mr. Beltran said his range is seven to 7.2%.

If realized, this would match or beat the 7% posted in the second quarter of 2016.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said earlier that he expects GDP in the second quarter to grow faster than in the first three months, but may not match the year-earlier pace.

The slower-than-expected first quarter GDP growth of 6.4% was blamed on the base effect from election-related spending a year earlier, including accelerated government disbursements ahead of the election spending ban.

The spending ban prohibits construction of public works as well as the release or disbursement of public funds, which was in effect from March 25 to May 8, 2016.

The Philippine Statistics Authority  is set to release GDP data on Aug. 17.

“And net expenditures are 8.8% up. If you compute the first quarter and the second quarter the difference is huge, 13.6% in Q2; In Q1 it’s 4%, that will push up growth,”

He said agriculture sector growth was 5% in the second quarter from the negative 3.5% seen in the same period last year.

Asked whether the bird flu in Pampanga will affect economic output, Mr. Beltran said that he has yet to assess its impact. He noted it will affect market prices in the immediate area, but may not be a big cause for concern.

“We don’t know that… it will affect Q3,” he said.

“We are open to imports, if we are able to import a substantial amount to offset the lost supply. We’ll have to import a lot more to replace the lost supply. But I’m sure it’s only, 45 days (to grow a chicken). (The lost output) can be replaced immediately,” he said.

The government is aiming for growth averaging 7-8% from 2018 to 2022. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR