VIOLENCE in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) reached unprecedented levels in 2016, according to a subnational conflict monitoring system developed by peace-building organization International Alert Philippines (IAP).

The system, Conflict Alert, which launched its 2017 report on Wednesday, Nov. 29, tracks the incidence, causes, and human costs of violent conflict in Mindanao, a statement by IAP said.

The group said Conflict Alert has the largest database on subnational conflict, containing more than 40,000 violent conflict incidents gathered from police reports, print media, and community sources.

The latest report highlights an 89% year-on-year increase in violent conflict incidents in 2016 in the ARMM, amid the holding of local elections, the state-led anti-drug campaign that began with Rodrigo R. Duterte’s presidency in the latter half of the year, and the emergence of violent extremism, “a particularly lethal form of violent conflict, IAP said.

All provinces in the ARMM saw large increases in the number of conflicts, the statement noted. Maguindanao, scene of the 2009 Ampatuan massacre, posted the highest number of incidents, followed by Basilan and Sulu. However, in terms of conflicts per 100,000 persons or per 1,000 square kilometers, Basilan was ahead of Maguindanao.

Shadow economy issues, primarily illegal drug-related violence, were the biggest causes of violent conflict in 2016, the statement noted. Illegal drug-related incidents rose nearly six-fold to 757 incidents in 2016 compared to the previous year.

“The data on illegal drug-related violence does not imply that the shadow economy in illegal drugs was not as widespread in the ARMM provinces prior to this year,” said Judy Gulane, Conflict Alert Team Leader. “What it does reveal is that a hornet’s nest was stirred by the Duterte government when it launched the anti-drug campaign, turning a relatively ‘quiet enterprise’ into a site of violent conflict.”

While shadow economy issues predominated Muslim Mindanao’s conflict landscape, political issues such as rebellion and extremism caused more fatalities.

The Abu Sayyaf Group was the deadliest among the threat groups, with 198 deaths attributed to them in 2016. However, in terms of conflict deaths per armed confrontation, the Maute Group trumped the ASG, a year ahead of its siege of Marawi City this year. Eight people were killed per attack launched by the Maute Group (8 to 1) in contrast to three people killed per ASG attack (3 to 1).

Conflict Alert data revealed the spread of violent extremism across the region, with Maguindanao accounting for the highest number of incidents involving the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Sulu and Basilan followed, being host to factions of ASG. Lanao del Sur saw the emergence of the Maute Group in 2016. The BIFF, ASG and Maute Group have pledged allegiance to ISIS.

All these phenomena, especially violent extremism, highlight the urgent need for new and adaptable responses to conflict in Mindanao. “Tackling violent extremism will require context-specific understanding,” said Nikki de la Rosa, deputy country manager of IAP. “It is important for the government to monitor the actors, causes and locations of violent conflict to see if an incident has the propensity to morph into more violence incidents, or conflict strings. This kind of conflict data will enable quick-response and effective conflict resolution efforts that not only focus on the security approach but also include processes that build community cohesion and resilience.”

“As the report also highlights, civilians and children continue to be most affected by violent conflict in Muslim Mindanao. Communities are the first battleground of conflict, but also a crucial site for brokering lasting peace. Youth and women, in particular, will have to be actively involved,” Ms. de la Rosa added.

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