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Police recall forces from national jail

THE PHILIPPINE National Police (PNP) has pulled out its men from the national jail in Muntinlupa City after several cops were accused of smuggling contraband into the penitentiary.

Police spokesman Brigadier General Barnard Banac yesterday said at least 500 police officers were recalled to give way to an impartial investigation.

“All the policemen will be investigated and had been recalled,” he told reporters in Filipino.

Sixteen policemen accused of attempting to smuggle contraband had been reassigned pending the probe, he said.

Among the contraband seized from the police officers were liquor, electronic gadgets and tobacco. Mr. Banac said majority of the police officers remained professional. — Emmanuel Tupas, Philippine Star

PCC wants Grab to ensure ‘reasonable’ fare increases

THE Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) is working with ride-hailing app Grab Philippines to ensure fare increases are reasonable, as it dominates the market after taking over Uber’s local operations last year.

“That is what we are trying to work with Grab on — ano ’yung methodology for us to say that you cannot deviate too much from the pre-Uber exit situation? What are you allowed to claim as increases?,” PCC Commissioner Johannes Benjamin R. Bernabe said at a forum on Wednesday, referring to continued discussions with the company.

Mr. Bernabe said Grab still has to address competition concerns, and PCC would need to continuously monitor the company’s possible tendency towards abuse of market power.

“The competition issues that we identified last year are still there. There’s still no viable competition in the market,” he said, noting that Grab is cognizant of consumer feedback that fares have increased since Uber exited the market.

Mr. Bernabe said reasonable price variants would be based on inflation and worsening traffic, adding that profit-based increases may be allowed if within reason.

“We don’t want to guarantee profit for a monopoly. But at the same time we have to be cognizant that they have to operate a viable business as well without pricing their services — while in a monopoly situation — to the detriment of consumers,” he said.

PCC is also looking to work with government agencies to allow a viable competitor to enter the ride-hailing market.

Mr. Bernabe said that Indonesian company Gojek is going through the administrative and legal processes to possibly enter the market.

PCC in January slapped a P6.5-million fine on Grab Philippines after the company sent deficient and incorrect pricing data to the commission. — Jenina P. Ibañez

China’s Xiaomi says plans to launch more than 10 5G phones next year

WUZHEN, CHINA — Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp. plans to launch more than 10 5G phones in 2020, CEO Lei Jun said on Sunday, speaking at the World Internet conference in the eastern Chinese town of Wuzhen.

Lei’s remarks come as the company faces intense competition in its home market from rival Huawei Technologies. Last month Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi Mi 9 Pro, the company’s first 5G-enabled phone for the domestic market.

According to Lei, demand for the phone exceeded the company’s expectations and led to supply chain issues. The device’s reception has prompted Xiaomi to launch 5G models for the high, middle, and low-end price tiers next year.

“People in the industry fear that next year 4G models won’t sell, this is a step you have no choice but to take,” Lei said. “So we hope that operators can speed up their expansion of 5G base stations.”

Xiaomi’s share price has fallen steadily this past year as China’s smartphone market grows more competitive. In September the company announced it would plan a $1.5 billion share buyback.

In the second quarter of this year, Xiaomi occupied 11.8% of China’s smartphone market, down from 13.9% one year prior according to research firm Canalys.

All other top Chinese brands suffered declining sales volumes as consumers flocked to Huawei, driven in part by patriotism. The Shenzhen-based handset maker became the center of US-China tensions in May when Washington effectively called for US companies to cease supplying parts to it.

However, Xiaomi has enjoyed success in Europe, where it remains a relatively new player in the continent. The company’s market share in the region during the second quarter of 2019 hit 9.6%, up from 6.5% the year prior, making it one of the fastest growing phone brands in the region. — Reuters

Asia’s red-hot bond funds raising risks for investors

AN INCREASINGLY POPULAR financial product in Asia that invests in bonds is coming under greater scrutiny as concerns about risks to individual investors mount.

The so-called fixed-maturity funds typically offer regular payouts, but don’t guarantee returns even if some cite targets. While the funds can provide stable income, in times of market strains that can crumble. A limited menu of options given the requirements on maturities mean fund managers may at times need to load up on riskier notes.

The red hot rally in Asia credit this year has prompted yield-hungry investors to flock to these funds, with increasing participation from mom and pop buyers. That’s expanded risks, as nonpayments in the Asia dollar note market have picked up in the past two months. Wealthy investors had already been borrowing money to buy into the products.

“Some funds are sensitive to ratings and in the event of a default or credit event, this could trigger forced selling,” said Anne Zhang, head of fixed income for Asia at JPMorgan Private Bank.

BIG JUMP
Taiwan’s regulator last month tightened rules, after NT$266.1 billion ($8.7 billion) had poured into the funds in Taiwan as of August, eight times the outstanding amount at the end of 2017. BEA Union Investment Management estimates that such funds have raised over $1.5 billion from the retail market in Hong Kong this year.

Individuals are making riskier investments in countries from South Korea to Singapore in a range of products as falling global interest rates drag down returns.

With the fixed-maturity funds, there are risks that their managers will reduce payouts if weaker bonds they hold default.

Taiwan’s regulator gave verbal guidance to fund companies due to the popularity of fixed-maturity products, asking the firms to not focus solely on their sale but to intersperse them with other products, said Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission department head Ku Kun-jung.

The key risk investors face is the “funds’ underlying bonds defaulting on interest or principal payment,” according to Eric Fang, portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments. The firm has raised almost 1.1 billion pounds ($1.4 billion) this year from fixed-maturity funds and has been “proactively working” on alternatives for new product development for 2020, said Xavier Meyer, head of distribution at Eastspring Investments.

‘FORCED SELLING’
Unlike a high-yield fund, the fixed-maturity products typically don’t take bets on distressed bonds. If the credit quality of a company weakens, this can prompt a wave of selling.

Current default rates are low compared to the financial crisis period, and the risks related to such funds are “still manageable,” according to Manulife Investment Management fund manager Megan Chung, who runs three fixed-maturity bond funds.

The popularity of such products is also affecting liquidity in the broader market, as they adopt a buy and hold strategy.

“The voracious demand for these fixed-maturity products could certainly result in a shrunken pool of available assets, since they are essentially ‘put away’ in these funds and not available to be traded anymore,” said Todd Schubert, head of fixed income research at Bank of Singapore Ltd. — Bloomberg

891 policemen under probe for 500 deaths

POLICE are investigating 891 cops for the deaths of almost 500 suspected criminals in police custody since President Rodrigo R. Duterte assumed office in July 2016, its Internal Affairs Service (IAS) said yesterday.

IAS Inspector General Alfegar Triambulo said 119 commissioned officers and 772 non-commissioned officers ranging from patrolmen to lieutenant colonels are under probe for the suspects’ deaths.

“Some of these officials are police chiefs of towns and cities,” he said by telephone.

The policemen could be fired if it is proven that the victims had died under questionable circumstances, he said.

“Prisoners are presumed innocent until proven guilty,” Mr. Triambulo said. “It’s the responsibility of the government to secure these inmates while in their custody.”

Deaths of suspects under police custody from January to September this year reached 236, 71 percent higher than the 138 deaths recorded for 2018, he said.

Police spokesman Brigadier General Bernard Banac told reporters they would check for any irregularities in the deaths.

Mr. Triambulo said 343 suspects had died of various illnesses, while 38 died after allegedly commiting suicide in jail. “Some of them allegedly killed themselves using the firearms which they took from police officers,” he said.

Ten suspects were killed by policemen after they allegedly put up a fight, he said, adding that the remaining 96 prisoners died from other reasons.

Meanwhile, three suspected drug dealers were arrested and police seized about 40 grams of crystal meth worth about P272,000 during a raid in Quezon City yesterday, Colonel Ronnie Montejo, acting director of the Quezon City Police District, said.

Cops arrested the trio after they sold the drugs to a policeman posing as a drug buyer, he said. — Emmanuel Tupas, Philippine Star

Legislators question grant of ECC for Kaliwa Dam construction

BAYAN MUNA legislators said the grant of an Environmental Clearance Certificate (ECC) for the Kaliwa Dam failed to meet the legal requirement to consult indigenous people who could be affected by the construction of Metro Manila’s new water source.

Party-list Representative Eufemia C. Cullamat said in a statement that the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the agency that issues the ECC, has not shown evidence of consultation for the P18.7 billion dam, to be built in Rizal and Quezon provinces

“Did the DENR conduct consultation with the Dumagats and other local communities to be affected by the Kaliwa Dam project? If they did, where are the results?” she said.

Another Bayan Muna legislator, Rep. Carlos Isagani T. Zarate, said in a separate statement: ”We filed House Resolution No. 10 and are calling on the House leadership to immediately schedule a hearing to investigate Manila Water (Co., Inc.) and Maynilad Water Services, Inc.). We hope that this round of water interruptions is not another ploy to push for the start of the construction of the Kaliwa dam that is full of anomalies and is onerously pro-China.”

Manila Water and Maynilad, the capital’s two water service concession holders, announced water interruptions this week, citing falling levels at Angat Dam, the current main source of supply for Metro Manila.

The Bayan Muna chairman, former Rep. Neri J. Colmenares, called the ECC issuance “highly irregular” with many steps in the process passed over.

“How can the Chinese contractor and MWSS (Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System) issue an affidavit of no complaint, a requirement for the issuance of ECC, when there are many complaints lodged against it? The LGU cannot possibly certify that the project is compatible with its land use plan because it covers ancestral domain and impacts on the health, safety and environment of the indigenous peoples and their lands,” he said in a statement.

“The DENR should not have issued the ECC unless these issues are settled. Now DENR will also become accountable if injuries and destruction results from the construction of the dam. We demand that DENR recall the ECC pending compliance with the requirements,” Mr. Colmenares said.

Bayan Muna opposes the Kaliwa Dam, which the government is seeking to build with Chinese aid, and backs the rehabilitation of Wawa Dam in Rodriguez, Rizal to address the water shortage in Metro Manila and neighboring areas.

He said Wawa Dam can provide 1.5 billion liters of water daily while Kaliwa Dam can only produce 600 million liters.

The government has said it hopes to meet one last legal requirement, clearance from the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples, before the end of the year.

The Kaliwa Dam project will be built by China Energy Engineering Corp.

The construction of the water project was first approved by National Economic Development Authority in 2014.

The financing scheme for the project was changed in 2017 from a public-private partnership to official development assistance.

Last year, the MWSS released an initial P565 million to the Department of Public Works and Highways for road construction to the dam work site, taken from the P2 billion government share of the project’s funding. — PhilStar

Halloween Specials (10/24/19)

Halloween at Richmonde Ortigas

ON Oct. 30, Richmonde Hotel Ortigas’ The Exchange throws a chilling shindig with “IT’s Halloween,” a happy hour party with a theme based on a popular horror flick. Get spooked by creepy clown characters while enjoying a drink-all-you-can spree on San Miguel Beer products and featured cocktails, a buffet of bar chow, and live band music. This special Halloween Happy Hour is priced at P798 nett and runs from 6 to 10 p.m. (the bar chow buffet is open until 9 p.m.). Live entertainment starts at 7:30 p.m. All guests also get the chance to win hotel gift certificates in a raffle.

Halloween at LimaPark Hotel

TAKE PART in a celebration filled with toys, games, and prizes at LimaPark Hotel’s “Andy’s Trip to Infinity and Beyond Halloween Party” on Oct. 26. From 3 to 5 p.m., families are invited to come to the biggest Halloween party in Batangas wearing their freakiest, weirdest, and funniest costumes. High-5 Philippines cast members Alex Reyes and Gerhard Pagunsan host the party which will have lots of games, activities, and spooky-themed rooms to go trick-or-treating in. Kids are encouraged to bring their pre-loved toys which they can exchange for discount vouchers that can be used in any of the hotel’s F&B outlets. Admission is P499 for adults and P599 for kids, inclusive of buffet meals, access to all Halloween rooms, loot bags, and more. Prizes for best costumes include overnight stays with free breakfast. For reservation, call (43) 981-1555 or (+63) 927 335 8235 or send an e-mail to reservations@limaparkhotel.com. Visit www.limaparkhotel.com and FB/Limaparkhotelph for details.

Crimson Hotel’s ‘Pirates and Mermaids’

THIS year, Crimson Hotel Filinvest City celebrates Halloween with a “Pirates and Mermaids Halloween Party” on Oct. 31, 2 p.m., at the Crimson Grand Ballroom. There will be three Halloween costume contest categories, with awards given for Best in Pirate Costume for one girl and one boy, Best in Mermaid Costume for two girls, and Best in Halloween Costume for one girl and one boy. Admission tickets cost P1,150 net for kids ages two years and above, that comes with seat allocation, while kids below the age of one may join the party free of charge. Ticket includes a heavy snack buffet with free-flowing iced tea, an interactive show in the ballroom, the costume contest, Trick or Treat, photo booth, games and activities, prizes and giveaways. The hotel’s Halloween adventures continue with the “Treasure Chest of Feasts” at Café Eight featuring a treasure box full of savory and sweet treats at the Halloween-themed buffet spread. This is available on Oct. 27 for the Brunch Buffet and from Oct. 28 to 31 for the Dinner Buffet for P1,645++ per person. For details or reservations, visit www.crimsonhotel.com/manila, e-mail info.alabang@crimsonhotel.com or call (02) 8863-2222.

Monsters at New World Manila Bay

ON OCT. 30 and 31 at the New World Manila Bay Hotel’s Market Café, there will be a “Monster Camp: Halloween Fun Fest” — a dinner buffet featuring a spread of international cuisines, signature dishes and decadent desserts. The Market Café will turn creepy to make it the perfect hide-out for Halloween. Guests should wear their best smiles because they might meet the monster squad for a group photo worth posting. Guests who come in their most monstrous costume can enjoy spooky Halloween eats and sugary treats. The best in Halloween costume will receive a special surprise. The dinner buffet is priced at P2,600 net per person. Kids ages 12 and below pay half price while kids under five dine for free. For reservations and inquiries, call 8252-6888 or e-mail dining.manilabay@newworldhotels.com.

Okada Manila’s Skulloween

OKADA MANILA presents Skulloween: A Season of Thrills and Chills from Oct. 25 to Nov. 3. Start off with the integrated resort’s original Catrina: The Virtual Reality Experience, which draws from the Mexican celebration of Día de Los Muertos or the Day of the Dead. Participants can help Catrina escape an abandoned mansion. To join, patrons can redeem free passes by presenting one P1,000 receipt from select food and beverage outlets or by purchasing two Halloween cakes from the Lobby Lounge and Pastry Shop. Shoppers can also drop by any of Okada’s retail outlets and get one pass to the VR experience with receipts worth P2,000. Reward Circle members can earn a voucher by getting 20 tier points from 6 a.m. of Monday to 5:59 a.m. of Thursday and/or earn eight tier points from 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Friday. They can also participate on the dates of Oct. 18 and 25 and be given Skulloween vouchers. Visitors can also have fun at the Crystal Corridor where there will be a Día de los Muertos Halloween Instagram Lane set-up for the perfect photo-op. There will also be live entertainment: stilts walkers, acrobats, and cosplayers on Oct. 31. For the kids, PLAY at Okada Manila will have a spooky Halloween. There will be face painting, a photo booth, arts and crafts, cotton candy and popcorn stations, movie screenings, and Halloween-themed games. There will also be trick or treat time, a Halloween runway show, a special performances awarding, prizes for Halloween games, and activities designed for guardians. For details visit okdmnl.ph/Skulloween.

Conrad Manila’s ‘Thriller Night’

CONRAD MANILA celebrates Halloween with fun activities for guests of all ages with “Thriller Night” at the C Lounge on Oct. 25 and “Spooktacular Sunday” at Brasserie on 3 on Oct. 27. At C Lounge, guests are invited to come in their scariest costumes while indulging in premium Glenrothes Halloween cocktails paired with appetizers and live music. The guest who wears the best and most creative costume gets a chance to win an overnight stay gift voucher. “Thriller Night” is meant for adults ages 18 and above only; price starts at P1,000 nett. At Brasserie on 3, “Spooktacular Sunday” is meant for the family, with kids of all ages invited to come in costumes and go Trick or Treating around the hotel and take part in face painting, games and other activities. It is priced at P1,800 nett per person inclusive of lunch buffet and Trick or Treat activities. Children ages six to 12 enjoy a 50% discount on the buffet rate while kids ages five and below dine free when accompanied by paying adults. For inquiries or reservations, call 8683-3990 or e-mail conradmanila@conradhotels.com.

Halloween fun at Eastwood Richmonde Hotel

EASTWOOD Richmonde Hotel’s “Paws-itively Awesome Halloween Kiddie Party,” happening on Oct. 26, will feature a snack buffet with drinks, assorted snack stations, a magic show for the little ones, a Horror House for the kids and the kids at heart, games, photo booth, and loot bags. And to make the occasion extra special, there will be a dog show. Dress up the kids and dogs in Halloween costumes for a chance to win gift certificates for hotel accommodations. The party will be from 1 to 5 p.m. (buffet is served at 2 p.m.) and tickets are priced at P950 for both children and adults. Toddlers two and below can join for free if accompanied by a paying adult. Meanwhile, adults can enjoy All Hallow’s Eve at Eastwood Café+Bar’s Fang-tastic Halloween Night on Oct. 31, 6-9 p.m., and take advantage of the Buy One, Get One offer on local beers, alcopops, and sparkling wines, plus 10% off on all the restobar’s revamped à la carte menu selections. Guests also have a chance to win hotel gift certificates when they come in vampire-themed costumes. For inquiries and ticket reservations, call 8570-7777. Eastwood Richmonde Hotel is located at 17 Orchard Road, Eastwood City, Bagumbayan Quezon City.

Cityland gets SEC nod for commercial paper offering

CITYLAND Development Corp. said on Wednesday that its offering for P1.4 billion worth of commercial papers had been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In a disclosure, Cityland said the securities offering was approved by the regulator during its meeting on Oct. 22.

The board of directors of Cityland in a special meeting on Aug. 16 approved and authorized the company’s application for the issuance of commercial papers.

“[T]he proceeds shall be used to finance the funding requirements of the Company,” Cityland said.

Based on the company’s financial report as of the second quarter, Cityland is pinning its growth hopes on the country’s economic performance.

“The Philippine real estate industry has grown robustly through the years and the increase in demand for residential and commercial properties can be attributed to various factors,” it said.

“These includes, rising urban population growth, housing needs of BPO (business process outsourcing) employees and remittances of the overseas Filipino workers (OFWs). The leasing market was fueled by the influx of tourist arrivals and from young professionals from BPO firms, while the sales market was fueled by the demand from local and foreign individuals,” it added.

Cityland said the “cultural shift” led by the millennial generation had driven the popularity of condominium living, while the worsening traffic in the metropolis had encouraged them to live near their school or workplace.

“Due to the emergence of new trends and opportunities in the country, 2019 is anticipated to be another solid year for the Philippine real estate industry,” it said.

As of the first half, the company was selling seven projects, including Pioneer Heights 1 in Mandaluyong City and 101 Xavierville in Quezon City.

Pioneer Heights is a 24-storey office, commercial and residential condominium located at Pioneer St., Barangay Highway Hills. It is on track to be completed in December 2023.

101 Xavierville is a 40-storey commercial and residential condominium located along Xavierville Avenue, Loyola Heights.

It is estimated to be completed in February 2024.

Cityland has three other projects in Mandaluyong City, namely: Pines Peak Tower 1 and Pines Peak Tower II, and Grand Central Residences. Both Pines Peak Towers are 27-storey residential condominiums located at Union corner Pines St. Grand Central Residences is a 40-storey office, commercial and residential condominium located at EDSA corner Sultan St. — Victor V. Saulon

iPhone display supplier sees OLED smartphone deluge from 2021

JAPAN Display Inc., the struggling supplier of mobile screens to Apple Inc., says it has about a year before it needs to decide on whether to take a plunge on next-generation organic light-emitting diode displays.

While OLED panels are slimmer, more energy-efficient and offer higher contrast, JDI’s liquid crystal displays will retain a price advantage that keeps them competitive in smartphones through 2021, the company’s new Chief Executive Officer Minoru Kikuoka said in an interview. He anticipates a more decisive shift to the new technology may occur in that time period, declining to elaborate on plans of specific customers.

When Apple launched its first OLED iPhone in 2017, it was seen as the beginning of the end for the LCD’s long reign. For Japan Display, which relies on Apple for a large portion of its revenue, that spelled trouble because the company was falling behind in the development of the new screens. But the iPhone X, which used an OLED display from Samsung Electronics Co., didn’t sell as well as anticipated, and Apple followed up a year later with an LCD-based addition to its lineup with the iPhone XR — giving the Japanese company some breathing room.

With the smartphone market plateauing and fancier screens failing to ratchet up demand from users already content with their existing devices, value for money has once again risen in importance for people considering a new purchase, according to the CEO.

“We are seeing consumers put more emphasis on affordability when it comes to their smartphone preferences,” Kikuoka said. “The industry is now gaining a new appreciation for the kind of price competitiveness offered by the LCDs.”

Apple’s 2019 phone lineup includes one LCD model — the iPhone 11, which Apple launched at a starting price $50 lower than its predecessor — and the company plans to add a second one in the first half of next year to replace the aging iPhone 8. But the Cupertino, California-based company may still shift entirely to OLED for new phones as early as 2020. Though it will still sell a number of older LCD models, the time for Japan Display is running out.

After repeatedly pushing back mass production of its own OLED screens, JDI is finally close to having its first OLED product, Kikuoka said, declining to give further details other than to say that it won’t be a smartphone screen. A person familiar with the matter confirmed an earlier report that JDI’s first OLED will be used in the Apple Watch. Still, competing in the mobile phone arena would take billions of dollars in additional investment, money that Japan Display doesn’t have.

“There was a time when we felt the need to rush a shift to OLED,” Kikuoka said. “Without a partner who could pitch in on the capital side, we simply can’t do it.”

Constituted from the remains of numerous ailing Japanese display makers in 2012, JDI mistimed large investments in LCD capacity and found itself struggling against abler competition from South Korean and Chinese rivals. Five straight years of losses have sent it in search of a capital infusion from overseas, but the list of potential suitors has continued to dwindle. When Kikuoka took the helm in September, the company had just reached a new low, warning that if it’s not able to raise fresh capital it may face difficulties continuing its business.

Japan Display said last month that it lost another potential investor as China’s Harvest Tech Investment Management Co. withdrew from its rescue plan. That was the latest blow since June, when Cosgrove Global Ltd., Topnotch Corporate Ltd. and Taiwan’s TPK Holding Co. left a consortium that in April agreed to an infusion of 117 billion yen ($1.1 billion). JDI still expects to receive an investment from Oasis Management Co. and aims to raise a total of 50 billion yen by the end of the year. An unnamed customer that had previously been reported to be Apple may put in $200 million.

Chinese screen makers BOE Technology Group Co. and Tianma Microelectronics Co. had also shown interest in JDI’s OLED technology, but both have since focused on developing their own versions. Having an actual track record of mass-producing OLED panels might bring those companies back to the table in the future, Kikuoka said. A joint venture at Japan Display’s Hakusan plant in central Japan would be the easiest route, but exporting its manufacturing know-how to China is also an option, he said. JDI could furthermore be open to offers from private equity and other sources of financing.

Kikuoka, 57, spent the first part of his career in finance with stints in Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd. and Merrill Lynch. After more than a decade at electronics parts and materials suppliers Nitto Denko Corp. and Nidec Corp., he joined Japan Display’s finance division in 2017. He was named chief financial officer in May before advancing to the top post last month.

In August, Japan Display reported quarterly sales at the lowest level since the company went public in 2014, as demand from smartphone makers cratered with no prospects of recovery in the near future. The company has shed about 1,200 employees through a voluntary retirement plan, sold off some display manufacturing equipment and suspended production at one plant.

Over-investing in factories at the peak of the demand cycle is only one of the causes for JDI’s current dire straits, according to Kikuoka. The company also fell victim to complacency because it was backed by Innovation Network Corp. of Japan, a state-owned fund that remains JDI’s largest shareholder.

“That resulted in a culture that allowed losses to continue and a sense that someone would always come to our rescue,” he said. “What was missing was a real hunger to strive.” — Bloomberg

Bank of Japan’s need for major move still unclear amid review

BANK OF JAPAN Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s call in September for a review of how its mission to stimulate price growth could be threatened by the global slowdown spurred speculation that October would be the month for policy action.

With that meeting now a little over a week away, the ebbs and flows of the global economy and their impact on domestic data leaves him in an awkward predicament: Having stoked speculation of impending action, the need to ramp up stimulus still isn’t clear-cut.

Sure, the outlook for the global economy remains gloomy with the International Monetary Fund calling for more stimulus and forecasting the slowest growth this year since the financial crisis. Japan’s exports continue to fall, inflation keeps slowing and a sales tax hike is expected to shrink the economy this quarter.

But there’s been good news too: a truce in the trade war between the U.S. and China is the biggest development, while nascent signs of recovery in the tech sector also offer hope that some of the biggest risks for the world economy could be softening. Despite setbacks in parliament for Boris Johnson’s deal with the European Union, a no-deal Brexit also looks less likely.

The BOJ’s Tankan business survey at the beginning of October showed that the mood among Japan’s largest manufacturers is holding up better than expected, while the service sector remains buoyant.

Markets are also looking more sanguine, with Japanese stocks hovering around highs for the year, the yen away from a policy makers’ danger zone and yields on 10-year government debt within a loose trading band around zero.

“Kuroda can’t stay in his fighting pose for too long,” said Masamichi Adachi, chief economist at UBS Securities Japan and a former BOJ official, referring to the governor’s readiness to take action and the looming decision on Oct. 31. “Given the lack of really bad economic data and some signs of relief in financial markets, it’s a close call.”

BETTER ANGLE
Earlier expectations for more BOJ stimulus in October dovetailed with a global wave of interest rate cuts from Australia to South Korea that followed moves by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Kuroda also fanned expectations that the BOJ might lower rates by saying he was getting closer to adding stimulus and talking up the power of negative rates.

As recently as Oct. 11, overnight swaps indicated a 100% probability of a rate cut at the BOJ’s October meeting. Now those swaps are showing the bank is less likely to lower its short-term rate from -0.1%, pricing the likelihood of a cut at 56% on Wednesday.

The swaps data is volatile, but it suggests market perceptions have changed since the U.S. and China pulled back from the brink, despite Kuroda’s continued comments on the possibility of lowering rates.

Strip out falling energy costs and Japan’s prices are still edging up

What makes the BOJ reluctant to ease is the overwhelming scale of its easing program and its building side effects. If the economy looks like it can stave off a recession, the bank may prefer to hold off any major use of ammunition.

Japan already has a couple of decades of experience in the quantitative easing and other forms of unconventional monetary policy that central bankers in New Zealand, Australia and South Korea are only just starting to talk about.

GUIDANCE OPTION
If Kuroda holds off on lowering the negative rate despite calling for the review, one escape route would be to adjust the bank’s guidance on policy, perhaps linking the continuance of extremely low rates to risks to price momentum rather than the effects of the sales tax, as is currently the case.

That’s a possible outcome that meshes with the view of Kazuo Momma, former executive director in charge of monetary policy. He said he doesn’t expect any major policy change at the end of meeting on Oct. 30-31. What’s likely is an extension of forward guidance, the least costly tool to demonstrate the bank’s easing stance, he said.

Speculation about October stimulus earlier in the year centered on the possibility of the central bank acting in tandem with the government to support the economy through the sales tax. That’s the kind of action that would be welcomed by the IMF.

Those strong expectations of joint action cooled as Japan’s economy continued to expand and signs that the sales tax hit to the economy will likely be smaller than on previous occasions.

While the possibility of the government and BOJ acting together can’t be ruled out, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration now looks more likely to link any extra spending to disaster relief from Typhoon Hagibis. Compiling an extra budget to pay for major damage to bridges, building and roads could take about a month, making it difficult for the government to coordinate with the BOJ at the end of October. — Bloomberg

How PSEi member stocks performed — October 23, 2019

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Wednesday, October 23, 2019.

 

Comparative daily minimum wages of select Asian economies

Comparative daily minimum wages of select Asian economies