The former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has declared that countries should unite against China’s growing economic and geopolitical coercion or risk being singled out and punished by Beijing. “If you are going to have a disagreement with Beijing, as many governments around the world are now doing, it’s far better to arrive at that position conjointly with other countries rather than unilaterally, because it makes it easier for China to exert bilateral leverage against you.”

As far back as a few years ago, I already referred to President Duterte’s decision to have bilateral negotiations with China on the territorial disputes, as “lame brained.” Bilateral has always been China’s expressed preference. President Noynoy Aquino, under whose administration we filed our victorious territorial claim against China in The Hague, consistently chose the multilateral option. However, his efforts to mobilize ASEAN against the Chinese intrusions did not go far because of Cambodia’s loyalty to China. Nonetheless, China’s aggressiveness in actually taking over the disputed marine territories did not progress much until Duterte became our president. There was also our Mutual Defense Agreement with the United States which surely helped deter too much aggression.

So here we are today, apparently helpless, despite some feeble protests now and then against China’s arrogant expansionism. After all, our President did not even complain when Chinese militia (claimed to be fishing boats by China) rammed a Filipino fishing boat and abandoned its 22 crew members who were floating desperately in the deep waters. Fortunately for them, friendly Vietnamese fishers (bless our valiant ASEAN brothers who, as we know, have defeated two powerful nations at war in their homeland) came and rescued them from certain death. Even President Duterte himself at one point stated publicly that he was helpless against China.

It really doesn’t take much analysis to conclude that he brought it on himself, and, alas, on our whole country because of a lame brained decision to go it alone, instead of mobilizing allies against a giant, powerful nation. Either he thought he would be as tenacious and victorious as the Vietnamese, or he hoped that like David, he would discover a magic stone to throw at Goliath.

More likely, he did not think out his choice, given his demonstrably parochial small mindedness. And now, he shifts from position to position, but still sticking mainly to his desire to please his admitted idol, Xi Jinping. According to news reports, it seems even the investments and aid promised to him by China, which he cites as the reason for his obsequiousness, have not materialized. Of course, he makes a big thing out of the cheap Sinovac donations, which is not what was promised.

Today, Duterte may have already decided to run for vice-president in 2022. The PDP-Laban party assembly has passed a resolution urging him to run for vice-president and authorizing him to decide who will be their presidential candidate. He says he will run if God tells him to run. I suppose the PDP-Laban’s petition is the voice of God. If they win, that means any hope we have of staving off the Chinese expansion into more and more of our territories will have vanished.

Does Duterte realize that all his irresponsible concessions to China could be tantamount to treason? Is this why he needs to remain in power? To protect himself from future criminal accountability? His skillful demagoguery has been working well for his popularity with the majority, who happen to be less educated and more naïve. The deterioration through the years of our educational system has worked in his favor.

Surely, we can expect him to endorse a presidential candidate who is likely to do his bidding. No, it will not be someone of the caliber of President Manuel Roxas, Senator Jose Diokno, or Lorenzo Tañada. Certainly not someone like Ninoy Aquino who was willing to die for his country. Nor an honest man like Ramon Magsaysay.

There has been speculation that Duterte is also worried about the investigations being conducted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for “crimes against humanity,” notably in relation to his futile “drug war” in which thousands were killed. Although Duterte has withdrawn the Philippines’ membership in the ICC, the negative international publicity will not be good for him. Our own Ruben Carranza, now an expert with the International Center for Transitional Justice in New York, has stated that there is reason to believe that the cases will be investigated further.

Carranza was acting head of the PCGG when it won the cases on illegitimate wealth against the Marcoses in Switzerland which enabled us to retrieve what is now billions of dollars of Philippine government funds.

Duterte seems to be more and more concerned with staying in power rather than governing our country towards development. He is probably not capable of more than that. Perhaps he is right to prefer to be referred to as “Mayor.” He is really more cut out for small government because he is certainly not presidential. That requires strategic thinking. Duterte doesn’t seem to know what that is. Tough luck for us. We need a miracle in 2022. That will call for lots of determination from enough patriots who can work for and mobilize resources to give us new, responsible leadership.

Teresa S. Abesamis is a former professor at the Asian Institute of Management and Fellow of the Development Academy of the Philippines.

tsabesamis0114@yahoo.com