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COVID-19 controls turn Asia into global surveillance hotspot, analysts say

Philippines among worst-scoring nations

KUALA LUMPUR — Asia has become the world’s surveillance hotspot and is at risk of serious privacy breaches as measures rolled out to contain the spread of COVID-19 become permanent in many countries, researchers warned on Thursday.

The Right to Privacy Index (RPI) published by British-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, rated 198 countries for privacy violations stemming from mass surveillance operations, retention of personal data, home searches, and other breaches.

According to the findings, Asia was the world’s highest-risk region for violations with a deterioration in recent years.

“Asia as a region risks sleep-walking into serious privacy breaches if there isn’t transparency when it comes to data use with respect to COVID-19 surveillance measures,” said Sofia Nazalya, a human rights analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

Asian countries scored worse on average than nations in other regions, Singapore-based Ms. Nazalya, the author of the study, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation by phone.

The pandemic has enabled authorities from China to Russia to increase surveillance and clamp down on free speech, digital rights experts say.

Many countries have tightened border controls and imposed travel bans. Some have stepped up surveillance using artificial intelligence and big data, alarming human rights activists, and data privacy experts.

Among the worst-scoring Asian nations in the Verisk Maplecroft index were Pakistan, China, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, India, and the Philippines.

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, China took the biggest steps to track the virus using mass surveillance, Ms. Nazalya said, citing mandatory health apps becoming permanent and an increase in use of facial recognition technologies.

“What is the point of making these apps permanent if there’s no need to,” Ms. Nazalya said. “It’s a disproportionate response to a threat that arguably is no longer as big as it was.”

Also in China, authorities have used voice-activated drones to track COVID-19 hotspots, hovering over people and berating anyone seen breaking the anti-virus controls, she added.

Cambodian authorities introduced emergency powers such as unlimited social media surveillance to tackle “fake news”, which had often targeted government critics, Ms. Nazalya said.

India, which was the only democracy to make downloading a COVID-19 tracking app mandatory with the threat of jail or fines, also plans to introduce a national database by 2021, which could worsen privacy rights, the report said.

Asian countries often lack adequate oversight of mass surveillance systems and legislation to protect privacy, data rights advocates say.

Although challenging, more governments should introduce data privacy laws and enforce them, Ms. Nazalya said, adding that businesses must not ignore the issue of deteriorating privacy rights as they bring both reputational and compliance risks.

“The first step is for there to be that crucial push for civil society to really examine what needs to be done when we look at technology, data breaches and privacy,” she said.

“(But) in terms of the government looking at data privacy, there needs to be a transparency in how data is used, stored, who has access to your private data.” — Michael Taylor/Thomson Reuters Foundation

With foreign tourists gone, Balinese rediscover seaweed farming

NUSA LEMBONGAN, Indonesia — Before the coronavirus pandemic took its grip on Indonesia, the pristine beaches of Lembongan island lapped by the Indian Ocean were dotted with sunbathing tourists from across the globe.

Now, with many visitors gone and the economy in tatters, locals are often seen carrying baskets laden with seaweed up the shore amid a shift back to former ways of making a living.

“I feel sad because we lost our jobs and now we have to start from scratch,” said I Gede Darma Putra, 43, a native of Lembongan, who used to guide tourists as a dive master.

Like many locals on this speck of an island about 50 kilometers off Bali, he and his wife Kadek Kristiani now wade through pristine waters to gather seaweed growing on lines.

Bali normally attracts millions of visitors a year, many attracted by beaches in spots like Lembongan, but plans to reopen to foreign tourists have been postponed indefinitely due to climbing COVID-19 cases in Indonesia.

With many restaurants and bars shut on the island, drying seaweed fills the streets as tourism workers return to an industry that died down a decade ago, despite Indonesia’s status as the world’s second-biggest seaweed producer behind China.

“Farmers are starting to plant seaweed again,” said Boedi Sarkana Julianto of Indonesia’s Natural Resources Network (JASUDA), a seaweed farming non-governmental organization.

“At first I was confused, wondering, ‘what should I do?’,” said Ms. Kadek, 34. “But along the way we found this work, planting seaweed… and earned some income to buy food and things for our children.”

Wali Putra, a 50-year-old restaurant manager who has been farming seaweed most of his life, said the pandemic reminded him of his childhood.

“Before the tourism boom … what gave life to the Lembongan people was seaweed,” he said.

Still, seaweed farming is laborious work and less lucrative than tourism, particularly as the pandemic has lowered demand.

Farmers say the dried seaweed, destined for processing and to be exported for use in food, currently fetches around 12,000 rupiah (80 US cents) per kilo, providing an income of up to $400 a month. That is just over half of what the same haul would have brought before the pandemic, JASUDA’s Mr. Boedi estimated.

I Putu Astawa, head of the Bali Tourism Board, said visitors were still needed because “agriculture alone could not get Bali’s economy back to normal”.

But some locals, like teacher and seaweed farmer Wayan Ujiana, 51, are taking the pandemic as a lesson not to depend too much on tourism: “Don’t forget to diversify your income, so when problems happen we do not collapse.” — Nyimas Laula and Sultan Anshori/Reuters

Manila Water, DENR and LGUs seal partnership for Adopt-an-Estero project

East Zone concessionaire Manila Water led the Adopt-an-Estero memorandum of agreement ceremonial signing together with the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) and several local government units (LGUs) to fully implement the cleanup and rehabilitation of San Juan River and its tributaries.

The program further underscores the commitment of each partner-agency to address pressing issues about the environment.

The event also marked the signing of an updated usufruct agreement between the DENR and Manila Water for the upgrading of the East Avenue sewage treatment plant in Quezon City.

The upgrade covers the retrofitting of the facility in compliance with the DENR AO 2016-08, which set the standards for biological nutrient removal in treated effluent, as well as the expansion of its sewerage network.

Back in January, Environment Secretary Roy Cimatu said one of the department’s goals is to clean the San Juan River, to which Manila Water immediately responded by pledging its support by way of the Adopt-an-Estero program.

The program aims to clean up the dirtiest creeks in Metro Manila, including Maytunas, Ermitanyo, Buhangin and Buayang Bato creeks.

The concessionaire initiated due diligence in the cleanup of San Juan River and its tributaries to help formulate technical and social solutions by “adopting” the creeks that traverse Quezon City, San Juan and Mandaluyong.

For their part, the LGUs pledged to support desludging services or siphoning of septic vaults in the households; provide cleaning materials during the cleanup drives; participate in information, education and communication campaigns and other river cleanup programs which are some of their initiatives under the Adopt-an-Estero program.

DENR Assistant Secretary Ricardo Calderon, representing Cimatu, expressed his gratitude to Manila Water and the other partners for their unwavering support through the implementation of various programs and initiatives geared towards protection of the environment.

On the other hand, Mayors Joy Belmonte (Quezon City) and Francis Zamora (San Juan) also echoed their full support and both lauded Manila Water’s consistent efforts with strong commitment on further expanding water and wastewater services.

Meanwhile, Manila Water president and CEO Jose Rene Almendras explained that in support of the government’s mandate and infrastructure programs, Manila Water will be building more sewage treatment facilities and expand the sewer network as part of its overall wastewater roadmap for the East Zone.

He added that this is also to manifest Manila Water’s steadfast commitment to contribute to the rehabilitation of Manila Bay and other waterways.

Almendras also added that this is the very first event organized by Manila Water with a combination of virtual and physical signatories and attendees. The Adopt-an-Estero program aims to clean up the dirtiest creeks in Metro Manila including Maytunas and Ermitanyo Creek, as well as Buhangin and Buayang Bato Creek.

Manila Water is the private concessionaire of the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System for the East Zone that serves more than seven million residents in the eastern portion of Metro Manila and the province of Rizal.

Moving forward amid breast cancer

Inspiring stories from survivors, caregivers in recent BusinessWorld Insights

One of the biggest cancers affecting women is breast cancer. Once abnormalities afflict the breast, the cancer can be the greatest challenge women will ever face as it affects them beyond the physical and individual aspects. Nevertheless, there is no reason for breast cancer patients to lose hope and stop fighting.

These were among the many musings from the recent BusinessWorld Insights on breast cancer, with the theme “Talk About Cancer, #BCWeCan”. The online forum, held last September 28, highlighted inspiring stories from both breast cancer survivors and caregivers to breast cancer patients.

Dr. Meredith Garcia-Trinidad, a consultant medical oncologist and the multimedia committee head of the Philippine Society of Medical Oncology, briefed on what breast cancer is and how it can be treated.

She pointed out that breast cancer begins with the abnormal growth of cells, followed by its spread.

Most commonly, breast cancer can begin either in the milk ducts of the breast or the lobules of the breast.

The most common sign to watch for is the breast lump, which sometimes gets detected unintentionally, Dr. Trinidad continued. Breast cancer can also show in the lymph nodes in the armpits, as well as in abnormal nipple discharge and skin changes like peau d’orange (skin looking like an orange’s skin) or an inflamed lump or mass.

The oncologist advises that when such conditions are felt they should see a doctor immediately since that is the only way for them to determine whether they have breast cancer.

Dr. Trinidad stressed that treatment of cancer nowadays employs a multi-disciplinary approach, wherein doctors offer patients different options, all of which go together in order to make the treatment more successful.

The combined treatment options may be overwhelming for patients, she observed, but she always points out that they must undergo all those procedures for breast cancer to be effectively treated.

She uses an illustration of an ‘akyat bahay’ to help her patients understand this, with the treatments regarded as the walls of the house, and breast cancer the burglar. “If a treatment is missed, it’s like a break in the wall, wherein cancer can penetrate easily,” she explained in the vernacular. “That’s how I usually convince my patients that they really should mag-undergo all the treatments.”

Battling forward

Inspiring stories were also shared in the forum by breast cancer survivors. Dr. Gia Sison, the Philippine leader of Livestrong Foundation and national adviser at Youth for Mental Health Coalition, recalled that she underwent a mastectomy and six cycles of chemotherapy.

During the grueling process, in particular the scans, she felt anxiety. “There’s always this pending feeling, thinking, ‘What if on one of those scans, it came back? Am I ready for another diagnosis?'” Dr. Sison recalled.

What kept her going was the support of family and friends who have listened to her as she becomes vocal about her situation. “I learned the power of speaking up about the things I might even speak for them,” she added. “And it highly helps when people pray for you and support you.”

Meanwhile, for TV personality Jaymee Joaquin, a four-time metastasized breast cancer survivor, her journey with breast cancer has been of a roller-coaster kind—jumping from one type of treatment and combination of medications to another.

“[My medical team and I were] in a rat race of just being two steps ahead of cancer. With every routine, when we discover something, we switch,” Ms. Joaquin shared.

In fact, many were surprised when she stayed alive even when in one of the routine scans she was found to have a litter of liquid around her heart and left lung. “I’m grateful everyday for God because that was a very, very, very, very close encounter to death,” she said.

Aside from the support both from her family here (albeit virtually) and her peers in the United States, her willpower has greatly driven her to survive. It was having a positive mindset—an attitude of living in the moment and of wanting to stay alive — that kept her going.

“People should ask themselves how badly they want to live, [as if] cancer’s only a mind battle. You have to learn how to twist things around your head,” she shared.

Likewise, it was a ‘one day at a time’ mentality that kept Dr. Sison holding on through her battle with breast cancer, making her appreciate even the most minute details of life.

“When I wake up, the things I disregarded before — like the sunrise, sunset — now as a survivor, it’s a bingo for me to see them,” she explained.

Some of the lessons Dr. Sison learned from her experience with cancer is being patient with the process and not taking her health for granted.

“Before cancer, I’m too much of an autopilot—always work, never resting. But after cancer I learned the importance of self-care, the importance of setting boundaries for yourself,” she added.

Ms. Joaquin, meanwhile, emphasized as well the value in appreciating life, even when something drastic like cancer comes in. “It’s not your fault if you get cancer…It’s sometimes just the randomness of life,” she said. “You just need to roll with the tides, roll with the punches.”

It is also time for the Filipino culture to learn how to support cancer survivors, she added.

“We don’t need a pity party all the time. We don’t want you to look worried if you meet us… Just treat us like normal, how we project [ourselves] to you,” she said. “I think it will help a lot of survivors live long if they are in a very supportive environment.”

Ms. Trinidad agrees with the cancer survivors that having strong willpower and a positive perspective will help a lot in dealing with cancer. “Focusing on negative aspects will not change things, but if we strengthen ourselves, with the support of the family, somehow we can deal with cancer easier,” she encouraged.

A loved one’s strength

The forum also gleaned experiences from a loved one of a cancer patient. Marlo Mortel, another TV personality, lost his mother last August after long bout with breast cancer.

He realized that the battle of relatives whose loved ones battle breast cancer is depressing as well, and so a strong support system is also crucial.

Thankfully, Mr. Mortel recalled, his mother was “such a fighter, and she fought a good fight”, that’s why her family did not give up as well.

He added it was during this period in his life when his purpose in life was further clarified, especially when he expressed his struggle in a song for her mother.

“Actually many have messaged that they have drawn inspiration from that song, and I’m just happy to help,” he said. “Throughout that course, I found my purpose, and that is to help people and inspire people.”

What he learned the most from his experience is that when the inevitable has to happen, it will. “I know it’s hard to say you should not worry, but God is in control, and our worries actually don’t help; it rather adds to our problems,” he said.

He also encourages loved ones to share their struggles. “Don’t be shy to tell people about your situation, because admitting your weaknesses, being vulnerable, it’s not a sign of weakness,” he said. “It’s a sign that you are strong, that you admit that you can’t do it on your own.”

BusinessWorld Insights: “Talk About Cancer, #BCWeCan” was presented by Hope from Within with the support of e-learning platform, Olern.

For guide on how you can best navigate your patient journey and to be part of the Hope From Within community where you can get up-to-date information and patient journey maps, share your stories and experiences of hope and get access to resources from the Philippine Society of Medical Oncologists (PSMO), follow Hope From Within’s FB page: https://www.facebook.com/Hopefromwithinph and visit the Hope From Within website at https://hopefromwithin.org/.

Shock-proofing organizations against future disruptions

To shock-proof organizations against future disruptions similar to the coronavirus pandemic, IBM recommends using a  framework that sustains operations at scale and with speed and resiliency.

“We need a holistic model that absorbs shocks for future disruptions. The current models can’t. Dynamic delivery is a framework that articulates how employees can engage … and tasks can be performed from anywhere, anytime,” said Sanjiv Gupta, head of IBM’s Client Innovation Center. 

Short-term, organizations had to employ tactical moves to maintain continuity. Mr. Gupta gave as an example a global retailer client that previously opened a brick-and-mortar store a day, but then had to shut down two-thirds of them within six months because of the pandemic. The client has since been rolling out digital channels aggressively for its worldwide customers. Another client, this time in the banking industry, saw the daily logins of its mobile banking app increase from five million to nine million soon after the global lockdown restrictions. Its cloud capacity was expanded to scale up the bank’s capabilities. 

Long-term, organizations are looking toward delivering their services in ways that allow them to achieve their objectives as well as take into account the new realities of remote work, accelerated digital transformations, and changing business conditions. 

SHOCK-PROOF

Dynamic delivery has three building blocks: enhanced and automated processes for contactless delivery, deep thinking on how humans function in the network, and the latest delivery foundation. 

Part of the framework includes moving its IBM Garage—an approach for co-creating a minimum viable product with clients—remotely. The process of co-creating and co-executing solutions, said Mr. Gupta, has been replicated online with the use of collaboration tools such as Trello and MURAL. “It’s leveraging knowledge management tools to keep everyone up to speed and motivated.” 

While IBM is no stranger to the work from home (WFH) setup—having begun its transition to remote work in the era of pagers—it realizes that looking after the welfare of employees entails more than equipping them with the necessary hardware. 

“Soon after the pandemic started, I started connecting with people individually on Webex to see how they were coping,” said Lope Doromal, chief technology officer of IBM Philippines. Apart from personal communications, activities such as online birthday celebrations and virtual get-togethers are also scheduled regularly to foster connection.

Mr. Doromal also shared that, notwithstanding the contentious Internet connectivity in the country, transitioning into a WFH setup has worked out fairly well for the company. There have been no complaints among the workforce in terms of reduced productivity due to bandwidth issues. “My connection to the Internet is 1 Mbps, because I used to work in the office most of the time anyway, yet my productivity didn’t dip (despite this).”

Mr. Gupta added that one’s bandwidth needs depend on the nature of one’s work. “Whether it’s tech support for faulty laptops, processing work for payrolls, or the development of applications, none of these types of work need more than 30–40 kbps of speed. Application development may require a bit more, but the work can be processed in batches.”

VENDOR-AGNOSTIC 

Cloud computing is recommended for the framework as it is more efficient than traditional IT infrastructure, although dynamic delivery does not hinge on getting IBM as a cloud service provider. All the tools can be integrated with any cloud platform. 

There are three engagement options for organizations wishing to apply the said framework: IBM can assist with the method itself; it can provide step-by-step guidance on the tools recommended for each of the key components; or it can assist companies in its digital journey as it shifts its infrastructure to the cloud.

“Will all the (current pandemic restrictions), organizations need to start looking at their processes end-to-end and ask, is there a way for us to transition these online? What is the best way to optimize this?,” Mr. Doromal said. — Patricia B. Mirasol

Philippines stock investors pin their hopes on consumer spending

Philippine stock investors, the hardest hit in Asia by the pandemic, are counting on a seasonal pickup in consumer spending to help recoup some of their losses as 2020 draws to a close.

The last three months of the year account for over 28% of annual personal spending in the Philippines, where household consumption makes up about 70% of the economy, according to data from the government and the World Bank. That could be a tailwind to stocks, some market watchers say.

“Holiday spending and a shift to looser quarantine measures” could prop up sentiment, said Rachelle Cruz, an analyst at AP Securities Inc. Stocks could rally, led by consumer spending beneficiaries, with gains likely strengthening after the US presidential election and as companies report quarterly earnings, she said.

To some extent, history also supports a rebound in equities. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has risen in the fourth quarter in 23 of the last 33 years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the best winning rate among the four quarters in the period from 1987 through 2019.

A likely pickup in spending will lead to more investor interest in consumer stocks like supermarket operator Puregold Price Club Inc. and packaged-foods provider Century Pacific Food Inc., said Ms. Cruz of AP Securities.

Even stocks that have been beaten down amid the pandemic—such as restaurant operator Jollibee Foods Corp. and mall builder SM Prime Holdings Inc., may gain favor, she said.

The benchmark stock gauge has tumbled 25% so far this year, the most in Asia Pacific, as overseas funds exited and coronavirus-induced lockdowns took a toll on the economy.

“We suggest sticking with consumer stocks,” said Manny Cruz, a strategist at Papa Securities Corp. “As the economy reopens further, buying appetite will rotate among consumer names.” — Bloomberg

Tech competency program offers Industry 4.0-related courses

SkillAssure, an online technology competency development program, offers a free, five-day intensive training and assessment period where students can pick from around 150 information technology (IT) certificate courses in Industry 4.0 fields such as blockchain, machine learning, and big data. 

The program, which launches this October, is open to senior high school graduates, technical or vocational course completers, college students, and professionals. 

After completing the free assessment, students can proceed to the main SkillAssure Program which runs from three to five months. This is followed by an apprenticeship, job placements among partner companies, and guaranteed employment for the first 300 graduates. Aspiring entrepreneurs may also enroll in SkillAssure’s incubator program once they have attained their certificates.

Developed by Pratian Technologies, a tech solutions provider based in India, SkillAssure was brought to the Philippines in partnership with Rabah Consulting, a local digital marketing company.

Pratian Technologies believes that technological innovation in tourism and agriculture can unlock even more opportunities for Filipinos. Agricultural technology entrepreneurs previously identified gaps in the agricultural supply chain, such as wastage and continued use of traditional distribution channels, which can be improved by new technologies.

In the short term, SkillAssure aims to address employment challenges posed by COVID-19, with the goal of upskilling at least 10,000 people. The unemployment rate rose to 17.7% in April, which is equivalent to a total of 7.25 million jobless Filipinos.

“As the coronavirus pandemic persists, threatening livelihood and businesses, Filipinos need to equip themselves with better skill sets to thrive in the new normal,” said Andrea Trinidad, chief executive officer of Rabah Consulting.

This goal includes potential partnerships with the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) and the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE). “We want to work together with our government because we believe that we have the capability, because of Pratian… They have all the technology available to help us navigate through these very difficult times,” said Ms. Trinidad. — Mariel Alison L. Aguinaldo

A fighting spirit amid the crisis

Kiefer Ravena  believes the Filipino will thrive through the pandemic

After a long break from the court, renowned athlete and Cocolife brand ambassador Kiefer Ravena was set to get back in the action after he was appointed as the captain of the Gilas Pilipinas men’s basketball team last January. But then the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic suddenly entered the country, putting almost everything to a stop — from outdoor activities right to sporting events.

But the pandemic does not stop anybody from becoming part of the solution using whatever resources they have, Mr. Ravena realized. As he adapts in the crisis off the court, he did his share in helping and in bringing hope to his fellow Filipinos. In his own little way, he has been serving as a good teammate for his family, his community, and his nation.

He believes that the fighting spirit of the Filipino will carry the nation through this ongoing pandemic, as long as Filipinos work together to heal and recover as one.

Likewise, Cocolife, the leading Filipino-owned stock life insurance company, believes in the Filipino — their dreams, aspirations, and goals in life. With its complete array of life insurance, non-life insurance, healthcare, and mutual fund products, Cocolife is ready to help clients achieve their goals, whatever circumstances that might get in their way, including COVID-19.

“Our brand ambassador, basketball pro Kiefer Ravena, has always been focused on his goals — on the court and as a young man,” Atty. Jose Martin A. Loon, president and chief executive officer of Cocolife, said. “He tells us that he earnestly believes in the importance of investing in one’s health, education, savings, and retirement. As successful as he is now, Kiefer’s dreams are the same as yours and ours.”

As Cocolife believes in Filipinos, its wide range of services help them plan for a future where these dreams are triumphantly achieved.

When planning for your future, have someone who believes in your dreams. Explore Cocolife’s insurance and investment plans. Check the official Cocolife website www.cocolife.com.

Regional Updates (09/30/20)

Road to Aklan beach and park

THE PAVED 550-meter road leading to Baybay Beach and Alibagon Bakhawan Park, both tourist destinations in Makato, Aklan, has been completed, according to the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). “With this newly-constructed road, we hope to encourage more visitors to come and appreciate some of Aklan’s hidden tourist spots, boosting the local tourism industry and helping small and medium enterprises in the area,” DPWH Secretary Mark A. Villar said in a statement on Wednesday.

Medical frontliners, essential workers do not need  travel  authority to take provincial buses

MEDICAL FRONTLINERS and other essential workers are not required to secure a travel  authority when taking provincial buses, the Philippine National Police (PNP) said on Wednesday. PNP deputy chief for administration Lt. Gen. Guillermo T. Eleazar said these workers only have to present their company ID and certificate of employment to be allowed on the bus. Mr. Eleazar made the clarification after receiving reports that all passengers going to Metro Manila are being required to have a travel authority before given entry to bus terminals. “We would like to remind the bus companies that all medical frontliners and essential workers have to present are valid identification cards or certificates of employment proving that their travel is work-related,” he said in a statement. Essential workers, as defined by government guidelines, include employees of supermarkets, drugstores, utility companies, agriculture, and food production, among others. “The travel of medical frontliners and essential workers must be less restricted since they play a key role in the effective response of the government on COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019),” he said. A travel authority, he added, is only required for locally stranded individuals and those that do not fall under the essential category. Twelve provincial bus routes between Metro Manila and neighboring provinces have been opened. — Emmanuel Tupas/PHILSTAR

Metro Manila mayors hopeful of shifting to lowest quarantine level by Nov.

THE HEAD of the Metro Manila Council said mayors in the nation’s capital are hopeful of a continued downtrend in coronavirus cases and be able to shift to the lowest quarantine level by November. “Hopefully by October, matapos na itong GCQ (we can end the general community quarantine),” Parañaque City Mayor Edwin L. Olivarez, who chairs the council composed of 17 mayors, said in a briefing on Wednesday. A modified General Community Quarantine (GCQ) is the less stringent level, with business establishments allowed to operate at 50% capacity, higher than the 30% under GCQ. Metro Manila, also referred to as the National Capital Region, was first placed under a strict lockdown in mid-March, halting most economic activities in the region that contributes the highest to the country’s gross domestic product. Mr. Olivarez, however, said the recommendation of the Department of Trade and Industry that more industries be allowed to operate at 100% capacity under GCQ will have to be set aside for now, even with a shift to MGCG. “Kasi ang MGCQ naka-quarantine pa rin po tayo, hindi pa tayo doon sa (Even under GCQ, we are still under quarantine, we are still not in the) new normal,” he said. Metro Manila accounts for more than half of the country’s over 309,000 coronavirus cases as of Sept. 29. The University of the Philippines-OCTA Research team said earlier this week that while there is a downtrend in the daily reported cases, Metro Manila must remain under GCQ as the outbreak has yet to reach a manageable level considering such factors as hospital capacity. — Gillian M. Cortez 

Red Cross to build COVID-19 lab in Passi City to boost Western Visayas testing capacity

THE PHILIPPINE Red Cross (PRC) will set up a testing laboratory for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Passi City, the Iloilo provincial government announced Wednesday. Iloilo Governor Arthur R. Defensor Jr. requested for the facility, citing the need to increase the testing capacity in the province and the Western Visayas Region as a whole. Philippine Red Cross Chair and Senator Richard J. Gordon, in a letter to Mr. Defensor, said, “I am pleased to inform you that PRC will establish one in Passi City in our PRC Regional Logistics and Disaster Management Training Center to serve the adjacent provinces of Antique, Aklan, and Capiz.” The laboratory is expected to be operational within October, with a capacity of 2,000 tests daily. Mr. Defensor, in a statement, said there is “a pressing need to increase the testing capacity of the province with the ongoing arrival of Returning Overseas Filipinos (ROFs) and locally-stranded individuals from Metro Manila and other high risk areas.” The provincial government is also building its own laboratory at the Iloilo Provincial Hospital. Existing laboratories in the region are located at the Western Visayas Medical Center and two private hospitals. “(T)hese are not sufficient for the requirements as we transition to a new normal,” Mr. Defensor said. As of September 29, Western Visayas recorded 11,413 COVID-19 cases, of which 4,161 are active. Bacolod City has the highest total cases at 3,712, followed by Iloilo City with 2,264. There are 1,942 classified under returning residents, both locally stranded and overseas workers. The rest are in the following provinces: Negros Occidental, 2,099; Iloilo, 826; Capiz, 348; Guimaras, 89; and Antique, 40.

Gov’t seeks P540B advance from BSP

Benjamin Diokno, governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, said the National Government is seeking another provisional advance of P540 billion. Photo taken on Feb. 5. — GERIC CRUZ/BLOOMBERG

THE National Government (NG) is asking the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for P540 billion in additional financial assistance to help plug the widening budget deficit due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

“The NG has requested for a fresh provisional advance of P540 billion to be settled on or before 29 December 2020, at zero interest,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said in a Viber message to reporters.

Mr. Diokno said the NG’s request will be formally submitted to the Monetary Board “soon.”

The debt plan comes immediately after the Bureau of the Treasury repaid the P300 billion it borrowed from the central bank in March through a repurchase agreement of government securities. A pandemic relief law signed earlier this month also temporarily raised the cap on advances the central bank can provide the government, while lengthening the repayment period to as long as two years.

Republic Act (RA) 11494 or the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act allowed the BSP to lend 30% of its average revenue, an increase from the 20% limit under RA 7653 or The New Central Bank Act. This would allow the BSP to lend up to P850 billion from the previous cap of P540 billion.

If the new request is approved, direct provisional advances from the central bank to the NG will reach P840 billion, only P10 billion short of the P850-billion limit.

The fresh financial assistance from the BSP would boost the country’s coffers in its fight against the pandemic, according to UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion.

“We’re in a crisis, and all possible ways to survive this crisis needs to be explored. Of course, it has to be within the rules,” Mr. Asuncion said in a text message.

The economy is facing its steepest contraction in over three decades, as the pandemic drags on. The Health department on Wednesday reported 2,426 new coronavirus infections, bringing the tally to 311,694.

The government expects this year’s budget deficit to reach up to 9.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

In a note on Tuesday, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. analyst Noelan Arbis warned that increased additional direct provisional advances could erode the BSP’s credibility as an independent institution from fiscal authorities “if it is repeated beyond the current crisis.”

“For now, the fact that the additional amount is only accessible to the government within the next two years provides a somewhat credible exit strategy,” Mr. Arbis said. — Luz Wendy T. Noble with Bloomberg

PHL stock market seen improving in 4th quarter

By Denise A. Valdez, Senior Reporter

PHILIPPINE SHARES are expected to return to the 6,000 level in the fourth quarter, but will continue moving within a tight range unless the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) results surprise the market.

As 2020 heads to its last three months, investors are seen to remain cautious but optimistic towards the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), barring unforeseen events.

“Range trading would likely continue unless we see any surprises in third-quarter GDP and corporate earnings,” Alvin Joseph A. Arogo, vice-president and head of equity research division at Philippine National Bank (PNB), said in an e-mail.

The statistics agency will release third-quarter GDP results on Nov. 10.

“We believe that the market will find it challenging to consistently rally above our 6,700 bull case fair value estimate mainly due to the persistent net foreign outflow,” he added.

The local bourse has recorded 153 days of net foreign selling out of the past 183 trading days of 2020. All 20 trading days of the month of April recorded net foreign selling.

“At this level, the index will trade at a 2020 and 2021 price-to-earnings (P/E) of 22.3x and 16.8x, which are at a 31.2% premium and a slight 1.2% discount to the past 15-year average of 17.0x, respectively,” Mr. Arogo said.

PNB is setting a 5,600 base case fair value estimate as a key support level for the PSEi.

Similarly, First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) is expecting the index to move “upward and back to above 6,000” in the fourth quarter, said Cristina S. Ulang, FMIC head of research.

“There’s solid upside once the vaccine is implemented, the virus infection curve is flattened and economic indicators return to the path of recovery,” Ms. Ulang said in an e-mail.

Among the factors investors will consider are improvements in manufacturing data and remittances, the softening of interest rates and the signing of legislation addressing bank bad debts.

“Local and foreign funds won’t miss the signs of a recovery and will load up ahead,” Ms. Ulang said.

In the past three quarters, the PSEi has been very volatile due to foreign selling, which is approaching $2 billion and has not abated, Ms. Ulang said.

More specifically, PNB’s Mr. Arogo said the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a 31.9% quarter-on-quarter drop for the PSEi during the first quarter. It recovered by 16.7% in the second quarter due to bargain hunters. Come third quarter, investors generally booked some of these profits, he said.

“At the start of the year, we had a positive view on the market as we assumed then that there would be earnings growth, which was backed by our view at that time of a robust macro environment,” Mr. Arogo said.

“However, although news about (the coronavirus pandemic) appeared earlier, it was only in March that it became clear that the virus would create a ‘black swan’ event (highly unlikely but massive impact on business and society),” he added.

But FMIC’s Ms. Ulang noted the market’s resilience, as the PSEi was still able to hit 6,500 in mid-May.

The PSEi closed at 5,864.23 on Wednesday, up 22.63 points or 0.38% from the previous day. Net foreign selling was sustained for the 14th straight day at P585.58 million.

NG’s outstanding debt hits P9.6 T as of end-Aug.

THE National Government’s (NG) outstanding debt reached P9.615 trillion as of end-August, as it continues to borrow to fund the fight against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

In a report released on Wednesday, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said outstanding debt rose 5% to P9.615 trillion from P9.16 trillion as of end-July. This is also a fifth more than the P7.93 trillion logged in August 2019.

The higher NG debt is attributed to the net issuance of domestic securities, as the government sought to raise more funds for its pandemic response.

Two-thirds of the debt were sourced domestically, while the rest came from external sources.

Outstanding domestic debt jumped 7.3% to P6.71 trillion from end-July’s P6.25 trillion, and 27% up from P5.27 trillion in the same month a year ago. This was due to an increase in the issuance of local government securities to P6.4 trillion, 7.7% higher from July and 21.6% up from August 2019.

The National Government’s external debt reached P2.9 trillion as of end-August, slipping 0.2% from July due to the stronger peso. Year on year, it rose 8.8%.

“For August, the decline in external debt was attributed to the P37.36-billion net effect of local currency appreciation. Meanwhile, net availment of external loans added P27.07 billion, alongside the P4.64-billion effect of appreciation on third-currency denominated external loans,” the Treasury said.

Meanwhile, total guaranteed obligations of the National Government as of end-August stood at P447 billion, 2.6% lower month on month.

“The lower level of guarantees was due to the net redemption of both local and external guarantees amounting to P8.59 billion and P0.42 billion, respectively. Local currency appreciation further reduced the value of external guarantees by P2.85 billion, offsetting the effect of third-currency appreciation amounting to P0.03 billion,” the BTr said.

The Development Budget Coordination Council (DBCC) projected outstanding debt to balloon to a record P10.16 trillion or 53.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) by end-2020.

The government plans to borrow P3 trillion this year to plug its budget deficit, seen to hit 9.6% of GDP.

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