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How many can be slumdog millionaires?

METROCOM relaxing while waiting to be deployed near Malacañang on Sept. 21, 1983. — AITOR ALEGRIA

Many of us still remember the box office hit Slumdog Millionaire, released in 2008. This British film was described as peddling poverty porn for its setting was in Asia’s largest slum area with close to a million people in one square mile in Dharavi, Mumbai.

Slumdog is a slum dweller living in extreme poverty with very little hope of breaking out of generational misfortune, for the cycle of poverty and ignorance perpetuates itself through time. Quick money offers the only way out so it is not surprising that drug pushing thrives in poor communities, petty theft and robbery are occupations handed down like treasured provenance of a university diploma, or some revolutionary nerve being awakened because the reality is harsh and oppressive.

In the 1970s, at the height of martial law, we recall we found the old Filipino films Insiang and Maynila sa mga Kuko ng Liwanag truly revolting because the plight of many of our people could be as demeaning as having to live with the moral and physical filth and mud of urban decay. The disconnect with “Ang Bagong Lipunan” could not have been sharper.

Still, some would try showbiz and expose some talent or flesh. In the case of the Slumdog Millionaire, slumdogs would try their luck in quiz shows.

With limited exposure to civilization and knowledge, it was impossible for the 18-year-old Jamal Malik, who worked as a chai wallah or tea server, to answer difficult questions in the quiz show and bring home what would be a life-changing prize of 20 million rupees or about half a million US dollars.

The questions may be easy for some who studied through college, or knew the answers because of a moneyed life, but the questions seemed to have been hatched so that no one who needed it most could win the prize. For instance, knowing the name of the star in a 1973 hit film Zanjeer required one to have actually watched it. A slumdog had better use of his hard-earned cash. Or the inscription underneath the three lions in the national emblem of India. He had more fruitful time rummaging the mountain of trash for a bit of cash. Or what God Rama was holding in his right hand. Would he even care when he had nothing to be grateful for? Or the Indian poet who wrote the song “Darshan Do Ghanshyam.”

Would a slumdog have any experience holding a hundred-dollar bill and realizing that Benjamin Franklin was on it? Who invented the revolver? Where is Cambridge Circus in UK? Which cricketer has scored the most first-class centuries in history? And finally, who was the third musketeer in Alexander Dumas’ book The Three Musketeers?

Jamal answered all the questions correctly until the police detained him for questioning before the finals. The police inspector and the host of the show, Prem, were not convinced he had the capacity to answer the questions in the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire? without cheating. This was class bias at its worst because with incessant questioning, Jamal was also tortured to force him to confess.

Jamal managed to answer the questions because of his recollection of facts due to what some experts call semantic memory, a form of long-term memory. His ability in doing this empowered him beyond his laylayan (bottom) social status, or his lack of formal education. The police inspector and the host had orthodox minds: “There’s no way he can know that!”

Following this flawed reasoning, material deprivation leads to dumbness. Ergo for us, about 25 million very poor Filipinos would be considered very dumb.

But regardless of one’s social status or education — of course they help — if people could connect their new experience with another experience that they are familiar with in the past, they would succeed in figuring out the new in the light of the old experience. Experts describe this as elaborative rehearsal, a process of mentally coding long-term memories and extracting them as appropriate triggering by the short-term memories.

In the case of Jamal, those long-term memories could never abandon him. They were his life no matter how impossibly challenging.

No wonder Jamal knew the name of the Indian poet who wrote the song “Darshan Do Ghanshyam.” He could very well remember that song which was sung by a little boy in the same orphanage he stayed. The headmaster blinded the boy despite his beautiful voice because he could earn more as a blind beggar. The question was a breeze for Jamal’s traumatic imprint in his long-term memory.

If that held true for Jamal, it must also hold true for many of us.

I will never forget Singian Clinic near Malacañang. In the thick of the First Quarter Storm, that was my vantage point to the Metrocom’s preparation on the grounds of San Miguel Church for assaulting the students’ series of mass actions against the emerging Marcos dictatorship, which culminated in the declaration of martial law in September 1972. My father was confined there for several months because of diabetes and a heart problem. I will never forget one Metrocom commander barking his order to the troop: “Hampasin ninyo ng truncheon kahit saan tamaan… (Hit them with a truncheon wherever it may land…).”

That was always at the back of my mind whenever I’d see men in uniform during the martial law years from 1972-81. I had no more questions as to future atrocities of the military. I was no longer surprised by the beastly violence they inflicted on my fraternity brods, Tony Tagamolila and Bill Begg, and on many thousand freedom-loving young leaders who chose to fight an oppressive regime that up to now has managed to retain apologists and historical revisionists.

Due to his true-to-life experiences, therefore, Jamal succeeded in connecting the questions in the quiz show to his long-term memories, or to code his short-term memories, the episodes in the quiz show, to his treasury of actual experiences in the past.

The final question in the quiz show about the third musketeer was just easy for Jamal because he and his brother Salim considered themselves as Athos and Porthos many years back. As they were fleeing from an anti-Muslim attack, they met Latika, who was to be Jamal’s treasured girl. He convinced Salim to take her along as the third musketeer. The three of them struggled against the curse of class stratification. No one fancied such an existence of prostitution for Latika; crime for Salim; and loss of family for Jamal himself. They were literally orphans in the journey of life. Meeting at the train station was a prelude to new memories.

Some people’s attempts not just to deny, but to revise Philippine history are not now, not something being done only today prior to the May 2022 elections. They started even after the EDSA Revolt of 1986 and very few people noticed it, or did something to correct it. Today’s millennials were taught the wrong history. It is good that many of their seniors are still able to connect today’s events with what happened before, ala Jamal.

It is not good to forget Winston Smith of George Orwell’s novel 1984. Working at the Ministry of Truth, Smith updates old newspaper articles and documents so that they would be consistent with recent developments. Historical revisionism will deny us and future generation of our long-term memory to help us discern and resist. Otherwise, only a very few among us would manage to figure out many questions today, win the prize and ride on the train to a new life.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Worse than nuclear war

STARLINE

Because it is the rainy season, the weather is among the many concerns that worry many Filipinos, and the damage and casualties from “Maring,” the most recent weather disturbance to affect the country, are still in the news.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (PAGASA) forecast is that from three to four more extreme weather events — tropical depressions, storms, severe tropical storms, or typhoons — are likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between now until the end of the year.

About 20 such disturbances enter the PAR annually. Not all of them make landfall. But even those that do not can influence the weather enough to bring rains and flooding as well as landslides. Depending on the power of their winds, the amount of rain they bring, and the number of places they batter, those that do make landfall can be even more devastating. Severe tropical storm “Maring” cost the provinces of Northern Luzon billions in agricultural and fisheries resources, lost farmer and fisherfolk incomes, impassable roads and bridges, and, as of this writing, over 39 lives.

But in addition to those calamities, the COVID-19 pandemic is multiplying the cost to the populace of every typhoon that smashes into the Philippines. Crammed cheek-by-jowl in the country’s makeshift and jam-packed evacuation centers, some of the families that have had to leave their homes because of the threat of flooding or storm surges are likely to be, and do end up, among the rising numbers of the sick and the dead from the contagion.

Already condemned by Philippine class society to such consequences of poverty as limited access to education, medical care, and other social services, the underclasses are also the most vulnerable to the infection, burdened as they are by limited incomes that is better spent on food rather than on antiseptics and face masks, by unstable water supplies, and by the overcrowded homes and communities in which most have been forced to live.

The pandemic is adding to the many other perils in the lives of the poor. But the threats to life, limb, and fortune from stronger typhoons, storm surges, and floods are bad enough in themselves. And despite their currently more intense impact on the less fortunate, these phenomena are likely to intensify and “democratize” the harm they inflict by affecting entire countries and the lives of everyone in them.

Similarly, symptoms of global warming as super typhoons, sea levels are also rising enough to force the residents of some Pacific Island countries — the first of the millions of possible climate change refugees — to emigrate to countries not similarly troubled. Here at home, some experts are warning that with climate change, sea levels will rise enough to submerge parts or even the whole of Manila and surrounding provinces.

Because of its global extent, the climate crisis, which has been described as an even worse threat to the future of organized human life than nuclear war, could sooner or later still catch up with the refugees from low-lying countries as the polar ice melts enough to so raise sea levels as to threaten even countries that are currently above them.

Among the countries most susceptible to this unprecedented threat against all of humanity is disaster-prone Philippines.

But hardly anything is being done by either local governments or their national counterpart to protect the most vulnerable communities from flooding and rising sea levels. Rather than risk-reduction, the government response to disasters has been limited to transporting those affected to improvised evacuation centers, and distributing food packs.

They are constantly urged to relocate, but the residents of coastal communities in perennial danger from storm surges and who live in places below average flood levels have not been provided the incentive, the means, and the opportunity to do so.

The Duterte administration has added to their woes by shutting down the free radio services of the ABS-CBN broadcast network. For most of those living along coastal areas and in other poor communities, free radio and television were the most accessible sources of information on such adverse events as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, typhoons, and the floods and storm surges that are among the latter’s consequences.

Typhoons have struck those so deprived of those services without their being forewarned and at the cost of their household goods and even the lives of family members. Some do manage to evacuate, but return to the same sites to repair or rebuild damaged or destroyed homes, and hence to remain at risk.

Relocating is the most obvious way of preventing the repetition of the same misfortunes. But without any assurance of access to sources of livelihood and such utilities as water and electric power in places they are unfamiliar with, few families decide to do so.

Rather than assist those communities’ access to the alternative sites to which they can relocate, millions of pesos in public funds are instead spent on such absurdities as the Department of Environment and Natural Resources’ (DENR) Dolomite Folly, which was supposed to beautify Manila Bay. Repeatedly replenished, the crushed dolomite is under constant threat of being washed away by storm and tide. That project includes such added costs as the damage to the environment where the dolomite is sourced and processed. And yet, as marine scientists have proposed, the millions wasted could have been better spent on the planting of mangroves to protect the hundreds of families that live by the seawalls and shorelines of the Bay, where they are in constant danger from storm surges and flooding.

Global warming has been attributed to the carbon dioxide, methane, and other “greenhouse gasses” released into the atmosphere by, among other sources, the burning of fossil fuels and the industrial emissions of countries such as the United States, the European countries, Japan, and, increasingly, China. The solution to it — reducing such emissions to stop the rise in global temperatures enough to mitigate or put a stop to it — is mostly in those countries’ hands in terms of forging and implementing a working agreement to regulate their environmentally destructive industries and reduce the amount of pollutants from other sources. There are existing international conventions such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol to do so. But their full implementation is plagued by such obstacles as some countries’ hesitancy in regulating the industries responsible for greenhouse emissions.

The Philippines is not among those countries. But it can do its share for the long term by using alternative sources of power generation rather than coal, and through the rigorous implementation of the clean air act. In the short term, it can contribute to the global imperative of halting a threat that is likely to put an end to all human life by adopting a national plan to reduce the impact of disasters on the most vulnerable sectors of the population.

Such a plan could include the construction of a nationwide network of permanent, livable evacuation centers instead of improvising them from school rooms and basketball courts. As one of the countries under imminent threat, the Philippines can also bring to the world forum its commitment to mitigating or ending climate change by demanding concrete action on the part of the countries most responsible for it.

The latter are the very same countries whose possession of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons of mass destruction and unremitting exploitation of the world’s resources have made the planet a dangerous place, and the future of humanity uncertain.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Evergrande and China: A Lehman moment — or less ‘Grande’ than that?

CHINA has seen rapid urbanization; as of 2020, 61% of its population lived in urban areas. In 1960, that number was a mere 16%. Evergrande benefited from — and helped fuel — this change by borrowing funds to sell property to the Chinese public long before these projects were complete. The firm eventually expanded into owning theme parks, bottled water, and a soccer team. However, the Chinese government, under its “common prosperity” campaign, has sought to deleverage the sector in order to avoid a potential bubble, enforcing its “three red lines” policy on property developers while steering investor capital toward the manufacturing sector. As a result, Evergrande has not been able to recently service its debts, missing bond payments in late September, sparking fears of contagion among investors.

First, is Evergrande truly contained, or could this be a Lehman moment?

We believe the Evergrande situation will be contained. Insiders have commented that the Chinese government will step in if necessary to provide the needed guarantees, but only after making various stakeholders sweat it out and letting equity holders bear the brunt of the pain for excessive risk-taking. We’ve already observed some initial steps from the government that support our view in the form of buying Evergrande’s stake in a bank. Time and time again, the Chinese government has successfully navigated similar situations given its powerful centralized structure. Of course, if there is fraud or accounting irregularities with Evergrande, which is a distinct possibility, this might change the facts — and our outlook — but we think even then, the government would have the tools to handle the situation.

There is a laundry list of reasons why (and how) the Chinese government may respond differently to a financial crisis than the United States. Unlike the United States, the Chinese government controls its banks, which are encouraged to prioritize the Chinese economy over their own profitability, and the government has access to their deposits. The Chinese government also controls the movement of funds across its borders, as well as the courts. Given the reach of the government, it can instruct state-owned real estate and construction companies to help complete Evergrande’s 800 unfinished property complexes. China’s “common prosperity” campaign has been recently touted by President Xi Jinping, and it would seemingly be a priority to protect homebuyers and certain investors from losses and preserve the integrity of the property sector considering its systemic importance to the economy. Lastly, the government can manage public perception and response, both in its control of the media and by curbing public demonstrations.

Additionally, our view is that there are plenty of assets to cover Evergrande’s debt if asset sales are managed in a controlled fashion, based on conversations with various professionals with deep knowledge of China within Franklin Templeton and external restructuring experts. More importantly, it is a re-election next year for President Xi, which provides extra motivation to exert as much power as needed to make sure any Evergrande asset sales go smoothly.

Lastly, when looking back to the global financial crisis, we saw credit default swap spreads widen drastically and currency volatility spike, indicating that banks and investors were put on their heels in response to a potentially dramatic crisis. Here, we have not seen credit default swap spreads move too much for US or Chinese banks nor has there been a lot of currency volatility in the renminbi, most likely indicating a very different set of circumstances and a commensurately different outcome.

Should this become more systemic, the government would also have traditional levers to inject liquidity, such as the additional reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut that was initiated in July.

Second, what would a slowdown in the Chinese property market mean for global growth?

In part due to the reasons stated above, the ramifications related to Evergrande will likely have limited global impact. We believe China is likely to experience below-trend growth in 2022 when compared to other regions.

As we think about the outlook for China and its impact on the global economy, the recent meaningful regulatory shift we’ve seen this year across a number of industries (for “common- prosperity”) deserves keen focus. There are specific risks to watch out for as the government exerts more regulatory influence. One strong example is the recent elevation of de-carbonization initiatives, and the resulting intervention in industries that conflict with that stated goal by consuming too much power.

Regarding the property sector, could the government’s orchestrated slowdown get amplified in a way that escapes its control? Certainly, that is not out of the realm of possibility, in which case China would underperform growth expectations and may warrant further scrutiny. Then again, it’s possible that the markets more recently have been underestimating China’s ability to once again intervene and engineer a favorable outcome. Taking a broader perspective, foreign capital and investor confidence is also a wildcard. Will foreign investors withdraw as we continue to see more regulatory and sectoral shifts by the government? So far, the answer has been “no,” but we are in the early stages of a continued transformation of China which will extend for many years to come.

We have thought for a while that the dramatic widening in Asian high yield corporate spreads this year foreshadowed a number of forthcoming defaults. However, there are likely to still be a few surprises that catch investors off guard — such as the recent Fantasia default — that suggests some property developers may become increasingly grim about future growth prospects and throw in the towel. This sentiment amongst developers bears watching in terms of how widespread and infectious it becomes. We also need to ensure there aren’t widespread hidden liabilities among other property developers.  Should these additional risks materialize across the entire sector, it would clearly destroy confidence and become a formidable challenge for the government to overcome.

Ultimately, we believe China will provide a form of bailout to Evergrande (creating moral hazard), in order to preserve broader financial stability and “common prosperity,” continuing to walk the tightrope between that prosperity and pressuring developers to de-leverage and avoid excessive risks. While Evergrande itself may not be too big to fail, despite its gargantuan size, we believe the Chinese property sector is certainly too big to fail given that it represents almost 30% of China’s GDP, and by some estimates 60% — 70% of the average household’s net worth. We are keenly monitoring this situation for its global, and multi-asset, implications.

 

Gene Podkaminer is head of research at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.

Voting for the ‘lesser evil’ is a bad idea

FREEPIK

The concept of “choosing the lesser evil” seems to say that when a person is faced with two undesirable (i.e., two unfortunate or disappointing) options, then that individual should choose the less “evil” thing. But that framework, which at first glance looks like a mere comparative exercise, is actually complicated.

THERE IS AN EVIL
First of all, to say there is a lesser evil is to acknowledge there is an “evil.” Which indicates there is an identifiable and preferred good. And equally importantly, a lesser evil indicates the presence of a hierarchy. All of which points to the presence of values and principles that, if one truly places importance to them, must then be adhered to consistently.

Or, put another way, how does one identify what is evil? And then determining what makes  something a lesser evil than another? What value or weight does one put on particular acts to enable people to compare evils? That requires an objective moral code, which cannot be selectively or randomly applied. To condone corruption is evil. But what about supporting measures that break up marriages or the family? State sponsored killings are clearly evil. But so is supporting abortion legislation.

Another and more obvious aspect of choosing the lesser evil is that one actually admits to choosing an evil, albeit justified ostensibly for it being considered as “lesser.” But how does that jive with the idea of having a declared set of values and principles supposedly adhered to? The point is, if one considers “x” to be evil, then to choose “x” simply because it seems to be a lesser evil than “y” does not change the fact that they’re both still evil.

Oxford moral philosopher Bernard Williams certainly thought so. “Take one of Williams’s most famous examples: Jim, an explorer, stumbles into a scene where 20 people are condemned to be executed. Because Jim is a venerable guest, the executioner offers to free all but one of the condemned, if Jim wants the honor of killing that one; if Jim refuses, all 20 will be killed. The condemned beg Jim to kill one of them. For utilitarians (the specific targets of Williams’s critique), it doesn’t matter that Jim has to kill someone — what matters is that either 20 people will die, or one will die, and it is far better that only one dies. Williams’s point was that it clearly does matter, especially to Jim, that to secure this optimal state of affairs Jim has to kill somebody.

“What we do matters to us, and this is often very significant. In doing the lesser of two evils, perhaps we lose something, perhaps we harm someone, perhaps there is something “distressing or appalling” — such as in Jim’s case — or even just a little off about what we do, or perhaps it simply is not the sort of thing done by “honorable and scrupulous people.” The point is that even if it is the best option, the lesser of two evils can still be genuinely evil and we can be averse to doing it.” (“The Witcher and the lesser of two evils,” Jake Wojtowicz, Jan. 17, 2020).

STICKING TO PRINCIPLES
Translated to the coming elections, if one really is intent in bringing about real positive change democratically (and democratically is the only legitimate and pragmatic avenue for positive change), then, as Witherspoon Institute’s Robert Simpson puts it, “it isn’t enough to simply promote the good within the limited range of choices you’re being offered. You need to try to become someone who actively builds those choices, shaping which outcomes result from which actions. And that means taking on projects and principles that you mean to live by — even if this might produce undesirable outcomes in the short term.” (“When is it ethical to vote for ‘the lesser of two evils’?,” Oct. 28. 2020)

It is also be true that to indulge in lesser evil decision making is to fall into the fallacy of false dichotomy. Of self-limiting to two, binary, choices when there are other choices actually available. That some refuse to look at other options just so they can justify the lesser evil framework doesn’t really speak well of people’s decision-making capability and maturity. Rationalizing one’s refusal to vote for a better candidate by saying such candidate is unwinnable is likely engaged (consciously or not) in mere wish fulfillment.

WITHOUT INTEGRITY, NOTHING MATTERS
In the end, if voters want political leaders with integrity then the voters must act with integrity themselves. One can’t demand of others what one is unwilling to practice. To pronounce upon virtues, values, and principles, religious beliefs or doctrines, and then to abandon such for short-term political gratification is frankly jejune.

And really, any political candidate or his/her supporters that seek to brush off a candidate’s flaws by blithely saying that such candidate is at least the “lesser of two evils” is simply being lazy, hypocritical, and ultimately unworthy.

“Fully conscientious voting will surely require the virtue of practical wisdom, the exercise of which cannot be encapsulated in a simple proposition. We can say, at least, that voters should not let their votes be taken hostage by someone situated to spurn— without substantial consequences — their support. My conclusion, then, somewhat converges on Alasdair MacIntyre’s, formulated 12 years ago: a voter should be prepared to opt out of a system that presents him with intolerable alternatives.” (“Now Is the Time: Why We Must Refuse to Vote for the Lesser of Two Evils,” Gregory Brown, Aug. 9, 2016)

Admittedly, politicians have been known to say one thing during the campaign and then do another once in office. Yes, perfect candidates do not exist. Because no perfect human being exists. Yet, the voter can look at that person’s character. And if a candidate with decidedly confused morals, absent values, and vulgar character is elected, then what does that say of the voter?

Elections are not there simply to put a person in public office. It is also the voters’ opportunity to stand for the issues, causes, and beliefs that he holds most dear. From there, elect the person with the necessary experience, education, competence, and character that more or less ensures the winner adheres to and advances those issues, causes, and beliefs.

So, it’s also about accountability. While voters make a big deal of holding politicians to account, nevertheless, if the voters themselves abandon their beliefs or causes (e.g., protect national sovereignty and territory, uphold the traditional family, to be against divorce or same sex “marriage” or abortion) simply to go along with the bandwagon, then the voters will truly only have themselves to blame for whatever happens to the country.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a senior fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula

India races to vaccinate all adults after 1B doses

REUTERS

INDIA has given out 1 billion doses of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) vaccines, a key milestone in an inoculation campaign that still faces significant challenges.

The nation hit the landmark number of doses as of Thursday, according to data from India’s CoWin app. But while 51% of the entire population has received at least one shot, only 21% are fully vaccinated with both the doses underscoring a wide disparity, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker.

The gap means there are large swathes of India’s population that could be still vulnerable to COVID infections, potentially triggering outbreaks in a country that earlier this year experienced one of the world’s most devastating virus waves. Restrictions on movement across India have been lifted the past few months as the number of new daily infections has abated, dipping below 15,000 from record highs of over 400,000 in early May.

The Indian government is aiming to vaccinate all adults by the end of the year.

Health experts attribute the skewed vaccination statistics to a number of factors, including the relatively long three-month gap India mandates between doses of AstraZeneca Plc’s vaccine — the main shot being deployed. The government is also yet to launch a childhood immunization drive that would cover about 40% of the population.

Hesitancy to get a second shot is a potential issue in India’s vast countryside especially as new infections dip, chipping away at the sense of urgency. In many rural areas, handouts in government-sponsored welfare programs were tied to having just one shot, while no such benefits are attached to getting the second dose on time. Moreover, some rural residents need to travel long distances to gain access to vaccinations.

Despite this, corporate leaders in India have praised the turnaround of an immunization drive that was slow to get going, first due to hesitancy among those initially eligible for vaccination and later due to supply shortages.

“Our vaccination program has indeed picked up pace,” Sanjiv Mehta, the head of Hindustan Unilever Ltd. — India’s largest consumer goods company — said on Tuesday. “We are hopeful that as a nation we can avoid further disruption from the spread of the virus.”

While experts had predicted India would see a third wave of infections in September and October, official daily case tallies have fallen to lows last seen during a lull at the beginning of 2021.

India’s states have cautiously eased movement restrictions and curfews, with malls, cinemas, gyms and swimming pools newly reopened in recent weeks.

“We expect economic activity to recover further, driven by festive season, pick up in vaccination and the likely increase in government spending,” Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, chief financial officer of India’s most valuable lender, HDFC Bank Ltd., said over the weekend.

Still, scientists and government officials continue to urge caution, with India in a months-long festival season that started in September. Complacency around virus containment measures during this period last year is seen as contributing to the deadly wave in 2021.

India’s inoculation drive needs to stay on course to prevent further virus waves, according to Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health. There’s a “lot of heterogeneity in vaccination across states, so we need to keep those jabs going,” she said. — Bloomberg

Japan princess overcomes money scandal, PTSD to marry college sweetheart

Japan’s Princess Mako arrives at the Imperial Sanctuary inside the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, Japan Oct. 22, 2019. — REUTERS/KIM HONG-JI/FILE PHOTO

TOKYO — Japan’s Princess Mako will marry a commoner in a subdued ritual on Tuesday after a three-year engagement plagued by scandal and media speculation, which has left the 29-year-old niece of the emperor with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

She will become an ordinary citizen after marrying Kei Komuro, a 30-year-old Japanese law graduate who lives in New York, in line with laws mandating female imperial family members abandon royal status.

Their Tuesday marriage will mainly consist of filing paperwork, then holding a news conference. While marrying out of royalty isn’t uncommon in Japan, the lack of pomp for a royal wedding is. Princess Mako even turned down the usual $1.3 million payment given to women leaving the family.

An engagement first cheered by the Japanese people soon became troubled as tabloids reported a money scandal involving Mr. Komuro’s mother, prompting the press to turn on him.

In the absence of clear explanations by the Imperial Household Agency (IHA), which runs the family’s lives, the story spread to the mainstream press, usually scrupulous in royal reporting.

“British royals have been pretty clear when they needed to explain things, but ultimately this wasn’t ever clarified,” said Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor at Nagoya University.

The saga began quietly enough in 2017 when the two college sweethearts announced their engagement.

“I’ll be happy if I can make a warm and comfortable family full of smiles,” Princess Mako told a news conference, with the loving looks they exchanged captivating the nation.

But just months later, the tabloids reported a financial dispute between Mr. Komuro’s mother and her former fiance, with the man claiming mother and son hadn’t repaid a debt of about $35,000. Mr. Komuro has said the money was provided as a gift, not a loan. In 2021, he issued a 24-page explanation and also said he would pay a settlement.

In Feb. 2018, the marriage was postponed until 2020, ostensibly for more time to “prepare.” Six months later, Mr. Komuro left for Fordham University’s law school, to return only three years later.

“The royal family should exist without troubles connected to money, the economy, or politics,” said Akinori Takamori, a lecturer at Kokugakuin University in Tokyo.

“Morally, the Japanese people want them to be impeccable.”

Princes  Mako’s father Crown Prince Akishino told a news conference in 2018 that without solving the financial issue the marriage couldn’t take place, adding he and his daughter “don’t speak that often recently.”

He grudgingly gave in after Princess Mako issued a statement saying marriage was “a necessary choice” in Nov. 2020.

‘UNBLESSED MARRIAGE’
Mr. Komuro returned to Japan in September as a Fordham graduate and employee at a New York law firm, but his casual ponytail caused a media frenzy as it was deemed “disrespectful.”

He visited Ms. Mako’s parents earlier this week in a dark suit and tie, ponytail shorn. Tabloids still sniped he arrived late due to traffic jams.

After their Tuesday marriage, Ms. Mako — who has never had a surname or held a passport before — will prepare to move to New York.

While their story has evoked comparisons to England’s Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, who stepped down as senior royals in 2020 and moved to the United States, Takamori cited crucial differences.

“There isn’t a place for Komuro in Japan, and so Mako, despite affection for her family, can’t stay. It’s not that they’ve fallen out with her family.”

Ordinary Japanese have mixed feelings, opinion polls show.

“As a father of daughters, I think it must be quite painful for her father to recognize an unblessed marriage,” said Yoshinori Okabe, 63 and a dentist.

But Chiaki Kadota, 29, said it was a private matter: “I personally think it’s better to leave them alone.” — Reuters

US FDA authorizes mixing COVID vaccines

REUTERS

THE US FOOD and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday authorized booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna, Inc. and Johnson & Johnson, and said Americans can choose a different shot from their original inoculation as a booster.

That means all three vaccines authorized in the United States can also be given as boosters to some groups.

“The availability of these authorized boosters is important for continued protection against COVID-19 disease,” acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock said in a statement. She noted that data suggests vaccine effectiveness may wane over time in some fully vaccinated people.

The decision paves the way for millions in the United States to get the additional protection as the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus causes breakthrough infections among some who are fully vaccinated.

The agency previously authorized boosters of the Pfizer, Inc. COVID-19 vaccine developed with German partner BioNTech SE at least six months after the first round of shots to increase protection for people aged 65 and older, those at risk of severe disease and those who are exposed to the virus through their work.

Last week, an advisory panel to the FDA voted to recommend a third round of shots of the Moderna vaccine for the same groups. Moderna’s booster is half the strength of the shots administered for the company’s initial series of inoculations.

The panel also recommended a second shot of the J&J vaccine for all recipients of the one-dose inoculation at least two months after receiving their first.

FDA officials suggested last week they were considering lowering the recommended age for booster shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to as young as 40, based on data from Israel, where Pfizer booster shots have already been administered broadly.

They did not lower the age range for the shots on Wednesday, but said they were assessing the benefits and risks of broader use of boosters and plan to update the public in the coming weeks.

“There is evidence that suggests potentially that lowering the age of those eligible for boosters may make sense in the future,” FDA official Peter Marks told a news conference. “It’s something we’re looking at closely.”

‘MIXING AND MATCHING’
The FDA and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were under pressure to authorize the additional shots after the White House announced plans in August for a widespread booster campaign.

The advisory panel meeting included a presentation of data on mixing vaccines from a US National Institutes of Health study in which 458 participants received some combination of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and J&J shots.

The data showed that people who initially got J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine had a stronger immune response when boosted with either the Pfizer or Moderna shot, and that “mixing and matching” booster shots of different types was safe in adults.

Still, FDA officials said the data was not yet clear on whether any shot combination should be preferred.

“Because we don’t have those data right now, I think we just have to be noncommittal about what is the best,” Mr. Marks said.

Many countries including the UK have backed mix-and-match strategies for the widely used AstraZeneca Plc vaccine, which is not authorized in the United States but is based on similar viral vector technology as J&J’s vaccine.

Reuters reported in June that infectious disease experts were weighing the need for booster shots of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine after the J&J shot.

A CDC advisory committee on Thursday will make its recommendations about which groups of people should get the Moderna and J&J boosters, which the agency’s director will use to inform her final decision.

About 11.2 million people have so far received a booster dose, according to data from the CDC. — Reuters

ASEAN should rethink non-interference policy, Malaysia FM says

KUALA LUMPUR — The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should rethink its decades-long policy of non-interference in the affairs of member states, amid a worsening human rights crisis in Myanmar, Malaysia’s top diplomat said on Thursday.

The 10-member bloc on Friday made an unprecedented move to exclude the leader of Myanmar’s junta from an upcoming regional summit, over a lack of progress on a peace plan it agreed to with ASEAN in April. A non-political figure from Myanmar will be invited instead.

The decision — which sources said was pushed by Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines — was a rare bold step for ASEAN, which has traditionally favored consensus and engagement over criticism of member nations.

Malaysian Foreign Minister (FM) Saifuddin Abdullah said ASEAN should do some “soul-searching” on its non-interference policy, given deteriorating conditions in Myanmar, where more than 1,000 civilians have been killed in a crackdown on strikes and demonstrations since a Feb. 1 coup.

“I reminded the meeting (on Friday) that ASEAN is about 10 member states. As much as the issue in Myanmar is local and national, it has an impact on the region, and we should also recognize the concerns of the other nine member states,” he told a virtual dialogue on human rights in Myanmar.

“And I also stated the fact that we cannot use the principle of non-interference as a shield to avoid issues being addressed,” he said, in a rare critique by an ASEAN foreign minister of one of the most valued parts of the bloc’s code.

Mr. Saifuddin said non-interference had contributed to ASEAN’s inability to make effective decisions quickly, and suggested a move towards a new policy of constructive engagement or non-indifference.

A junta spokesman has blamed ASEAN’s decision on “foreign intervention,” including by the United States and European Union. — Reuters

Changing Facebook’s name will not deter lawmaker or regulatory scrutiny, experts say

REUTERS

Renaming Facebook Inc. is unlikely to enable the tech giant to distance itself from regulatory and public scrutiny around the potential harms caused by its social media apps, marketing and branding experts told Reuters.  

Tech publication The Verge reported on Tuesday that the California-based firm is planning to change its corporate branding to reflect that as well as owning the social media platform that made it a global household name, it also now includes other thriving businesses like Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus.  

The company declined to comment regarding the report on the possible rebranding. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story.  

Facebook is battling intense scrutiny after a whistleblower leaked thousands of internal documents that showed it contributed to increased polarization online when it made changes to its content algorithm, failed to take steps to reduce vaccine hesitancy, and was aware that popular social media app Instagram harmed the mental health of teenage girls.  

The US Senate held a hearing earlier this month into the effect of Instagram on young users.  

“Legislators and politicians are sufficiently smart to not be fooled by a rebranding,” said James Cordwell, an internet analyst at Atlantic Equities.  

Renaming can be an effective strategy to allow subsidiary brands to maintain their own reputations, said Marisa Mulvihill, head of brand and activation at Prophet, a branding and marketing consultancy. But the media and regulators “are not going to stop investigating or creating reforms just because you rebranded,” she added.  

The new parent company name could reflect Facebook’s focus on building the “metaverse,” The Verge reported, referring to a proposed digital world where people can use different devices to move and communicate in a virtual environment.  

It could also prevent a possible negative perception around the Facebook name from affecting WhatsApp, the messaging app used by nearly 2 billion people globally, and Oculus, its virtual reality brand, experts said.  

According to Prophet’s annual ranking, Facebook’s brand relevance to US consumers has dropped “precipitously” over the past several years, Ms. Mulvihill said.  

“What you don’t want is for that to proliferate and have a negative halo effect on other parts of your business,” said Deborah Stafford-Watson, head of strategy at brand consultancy firm Elmwood.  

Other major companies have taken similar steps. Google reorganized under a holding company called Alphabet in 2015, as the company best known for internet searches increasingly pursued ambitions like autonomous driving technology.  

In 2003, cigarette seller Philip Morris rebranded itself as Altria, at a time when the company owned Kraft Foods. It later spun off the food division.  

While the move to rebrand as Altria didn’t remove the negative connotations of tobacco from the cigarette brands itself, it did help to limit the effects on Kraft, Ms. Mulvihill said.  

Facebook will continue to confront the same pressures even after a rebrand, the experts said.  

“I don’t think it’s going to help Facebook mitigate regulators’ scrutiny or the general public’s skepticism, if not distrust,” said Natasha Jen, a partner at Pentagram, a design studio that does advertising and communication work. “Trust is something you need to earn.” — Sheila Dang and Supantha Mukherjee/Reuters  

Small-scale tuna fishermen in Luzon obtain international sustainability certification 

PHOTOGRAPH © ALO LANTIN/WWF-PHILIPPINES/ WWF.ORG.PH

By Patricia Mirasol 

The Philippine Tuna Handline Partnership (PTHP) is the first group of small-scale fishers and tuna processors in the Philippines to earn a Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification. The international certification was given on Oct. 19, or more than a year after the PTHP began the MSC assessment process in March 2020.  

The certification is the latest development of a WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature)-Philippines-led project with handline tuna fishers in the Mindoro Strait and Lagonoy Gulf. The Fishery Improvement Project (FIP), which has been running since 2011, is a multi-stakeholder program that aims to establish sustainable fishing practices and improve the livelihoods of fishermen. 

“They capacitated us,” said Atenogenes B. Reaso, a fisherman and chairman of the Gulf of Lagonoy Tuna Fishers Federation, Inc., at the Oct. 1 launch of a WWF coffee table book narrating the fishermen’s aforementioned 10-year journey. The FIPs helped their members understand what sustainability is, Mr. Reaso added. 

TRACEABLE TO ITS SOURCE
An MSC certification recognizes sustainable fishing practices. The blue MSC label is applied to wild fish or seafood from fisheries that have been independently assessed on its impacts to wild fish populations and the ecosystems they’re part of. It shows consumers that the fish they bought in the grocery comes from a sustainable source. 

“WWF helped us… enter the international market,” said Bernard A. Mayo, Sr., a fisherman and chairman of the Mindoro Strait Integrated Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Management Council (IFARMC). “We will use MSC to make fishing more sustainable and enable future generations to benefit from it,” he told the book launch audience in the vernacular.  

Under the FIP, fishermen register their boats and get a fishing license in return. The fishmen are trained on sustainable practices, including the use of selective handlines. Practices like this ensure sustainable fishing, as the handlines only catch mature yellowfin tuna and leave out the juvenile ones.  

Each fish caught is traceable from fishing boat to international market, guaranteeing the fishermen’s livelihoods.  

CAUGHT LOCALLY, EXPORTED GLOBALLY
Bangkulis, or yellowfin tuna, are caught in the Philippines but are exported globally, said Gregg H. Yan, executive director of environmental nonprofit Best Alternatives, at the Oct. 1 virtual event. “The European Union (EU) is the largest importer,” he added.  

After the fish are unloaded from the boats, Mr. Yan said, they are brought to the casas, where they are gently prepared, chilled, packed, and sealed before being sent to international markets such as Japan, the Americas, and the EU.  

There are seven species of tuna worldwide. The yellowfin tuna (T. albacares), according to Britannica, is a commercially important specie that reaches a maximum weight of about 180 kg (397 pounds).  

PROTECTION OF LOCAL FISHERIES
The PTHP has to meet the following conditions to keep its MSC certification: stronger habitat management strategies, policies to identify and protect endangered species, and effective monitoring and enforcement of fishery laws. Local government units also need to recognize and adopt tuna management plans on a municipal level for these to be effective. 

A March 2021 article by BusinessWorld notes that 80 of the world’s largest canned tuna brands procure much of their tuna from the Pacific, which supplies more than half (or 60%) of the world’s tuna. The Western Central Pacific region, however, has been flagged by the MSC for not having sufficient measures in place to protect local fisheries.  

Should region-wide harvest control rules and strategies not be put in place by December 2022, tuna fisheries in the Western Central Pacific – including the Philippines – could lose their MSC certification.

What lies beneath? Hidden debt fears feed China’s property woes

REUTERS

SHANGHAI/LONDON — Numbers don’t lie, you just need to be looking at the right ones.  

That’s the problem for investors searching for the next trouble spot in the Chinese real estate sector as industry giant China Evergrande Group lumbers towards what is expected to be the country’s largest-ever corporate default. The figures on the books sometimes don’t tell the full story.  

Since Beijing started clamping down on corporate debt in 2017, many real estate developers have turned to off-balance-sheet vehicles to borrow money and skirt regulatory scrutiny, analysts and lawyers say.  

Joint ventures are a popular choice because, unless a company holds a controlling interest in one, it can keep details of it and the debt it acquires off its balance sheet.  

“Nearly every developer has borrowings in disguise. The sector’s debt problem is worse than what you see,” said He Siwei, attorney at Hui Ye Law Firm.  

Chinese developers owed 33.5 trillion yuan ($5.24 trillion)through various channels at the end of June, Nomura estimates, based on official statistics, adding “there are definitely other obscure financing channels yet to be covered.”  

Private bonds issued by shell companies in offshore locations have emerged as a new concern.  

In a note this month, Fitch ratings agency said that Fantasia Holdings Group, a property developer which has since defaulted, had recently told it “for the first time” that it had $150 million of private bonds that do not appear to have been reported in its financial statements.  

Fantasia did not respond to a request for comment. The company had over $4 billion worth of cash at the end of June and two weeks before it defaulted said that it had “ample capital.”  

Unsurprisingly, investors have begun to look in less obvious places as the sectors’ most troubled firms have been locked out of international capital markets.  

Some of those developers hit hardest had better-looking financials than those whose bonds had been less impacted, according to an analysis by JPMorgan, underlining a lack of faith in balance sheets.  

Out of 70 Chinese property developers rated by Moody’s, 27 have “significant” exposure to joint ventures, compared with five out of 49 in 2015.  

Under a typical joint venture, a developer sets up a minority-owned real estate project with an asset manager or private equity fund and promises them fixed returns. The developer usually agrees to buy back its stake from the other investor after a certain number of years.  

POSTERCHILD 
This year’s escalation of Evergrande’s woes meant that its failure to make a bond payment last month was largely expected. Once China’s top-selling property developer, Evergrande has over $300 billion in liabilities, equivalent to about 2% of China’s gross domestic product.  

It was the posterchild for the sector’s credit-fuelled growth with a debt pile that has nearly quadrupled since 2016.  

Evergrande’s financing model, which depended on a constant stream of new sales to feed its operations, quickly ran into trouble when Beijing introduced its so-called “Three Red Lines” rules last year that capped the amount of debt developers could take on compared to the amount of cash, assets and equity capital they held.  

Evergrande did not have many joint ventures, analysts say but it did use off-balance sheet debt for funding, such as sales of wealth management products.  

It also appears to have had exposure to private bonds, according to a bond term sheet seen by Reuters.  

JPMorgan analysts estimated that Evergrande’s true net gearing —  a measure of a company’s financial leverage — was at least 177% at the end of June, compared to the 100% reported in its accounts.  

It is not the only one. JPMorgan estimated R&F Properties’ gearing jumped to 139% from 123% once disguised debt was added back on while Sunac China Holdings’ figure leapt to 138% from 87% to name just a few.  

“I don’t think anyone knows for sure the real size of Evergrande’s debt piles,” said a bond regulator who declined to be identified.  

Evergrande, R&F Properties and Sunac China did not respond to requests for comment.  

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which overseas disclosure by bond issuers, including developers, didn’t respond to a request for comment on the issue of hidden debt.  

Hong Kong’s audit regulator has said it is investigating Evergrande’s 2020 accounts and their audit by PwC because it had concerns about the adequacy of reporting. PwC did not comment on the announcement of the probe.  

MINORITY INTERESTS 
China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said on Sunday that China’s economy faces default risks for certain firms due to “mismanagement,” and that authorities will try to prevent problems at Evergrande from spreading.  

In a press conference on Oct 15, another central bank official said that Evergrande is “an idiosyncratic risk” with limited spillover effects, urging developers to be responsible for repaying their debt.  

Due to increased investor scrutiny, some Chinese developers have started to bring some of their joint ventures onto their balance sheets. In most cases, that leads to a jump in minority interests, according to a report earlier this year by rating agency S&P Global.  

Minority interests are considered equity rather than debt and, on paper, boost a company’s financial strength.  

JPMorgan estimates that Fantasia’s net gearing rises to 92% when its joint ventures are included compared to a reported 76%. If both joint venture and minority interests are included, however, that rises to 170%, the bank said.  

Fantasia’s default prompted a sector-wide sell-off, with spreads on Chinese high-yield corporate dollar bonds nearly tripling since late May.  

But with the mass sell-off leaving prices at rock bottom and the yields available on some of the bonds now well over 200%, some investors have been dipping their toes back in this week despite warnings of a treacherous trade.  

“Absolutely there are hidden risks,” said Jeff Grills, head of emerging market debt at Aegon Asset Management. “And the thing is it is hard to know until you know.” — Samuel Shen, Marc Jones, and Clare Jim/Reuters  

Enter the Zuckerverse? Social media churns with new names for Facebook

Zuckerverse. Timesuck. Faceplant.  

They’re just a few of the suggestions being bandied around online following reports that Facebook plans to rebrand itself with a new group name. The company refused to comment on rumor or speculation, of course, but the Twitterati had no problem.  

The debate careered from sensible to screwball to strange.  

“Meta” was one of the more sober trending suggestions, referring to Facebook’s reported desire to assume a name that focuses on the metaverse, a virtual environment where users can hang out.  

Bookface, Facegram, Facetagram, FreeFace, FreeTalk, World Changer.  

On the wilder side, Twitter user Dave Pell drew a comparison with musician Kanye West who recently changed his name to “Ye.”  

“It would be awesome if Facebook changes its name to Ye,” he said.  

Several humorous suggestions reflected online speculation that the alleged rebrand was driven by founder Mark Zuckerberg’s yearning to make Facebook “cool” once more.  

The platform has been deserted by many younger users who have moved to apps like Instagram, Snapchat, and TikTok, and has become increasingly populated by older people.  

“Teenage Wasteland”, one wit suggested.  

“The Old People’s App because that’s what us younger people call it,” college student Vittoria Esteves told Reuters in Rome.  

“Boomerville,” suggested Marco, referring to so-called baby boomers born in the years following World War II.  

‘STREISAND EFFECT’ 
The online naming feast was sparked by a report on the Verge tech site that a newly named group would act as a parent for all the company’s brands, including Facebook itself, Instagram, and WhatsApp, and reflect a focus on virtual and augmented reality.  

An announcement is expected next week, according to the report.  

Many suggestions however reflected the public’s concern about how the company handles user safety and hate speech. Internal documents leaked by a whistleblower formed the basis for a US Senate hearing last week.  

“Fakebook,” for example. Tracebook.  

Other people were sceptical whether a name change would be enough to detract from the growing legal and regulatory scrutiny that has tarnished the company’s reputation.  

“It’s going to be the Barbra Streisand effect thing going on,” said 20-year old Glasgow student Thomas van der Hoven, referring to the phenomenon where seeking to suppress something inadvertently turbo-charges popular interest in it.  

“So they’re going to try and change it, and then that’s just going to put the spotlight on the fact that they’re changing it. Why are they changing this?” he added. “So it’s probably going to spit back in their face at some point.” — Nivedita Balu and Antonio Denti/Reuters