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Seizing the momentum

PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT Leni Robredo in Dagupan, Pangasinan sortie on April 8. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

I have written in this space many times before that survey rankings change over the campaign period. That is because the rankings reflect the sentiments of the voters at the time the survey was conducted. A lot of things can happen between the time a survey was conducted and Election Day that can change the sentiments of the voters, and consequently the rankings of the candidates in the surveys.

For one, campaign strategists of the different candidates will make things happen, either to boost their candidate’s political stock or to erode his opponents’ standing. There can also be developments outside the influence of the candidates that can have a significant impact on their campaign.

This was shown in the last Pulse Asia survey on preference for presidential candidates. Bongbong Marcos still leads in the March 17-21 survey, but his numbers went down by 4%, from 60% in the Feb. 18-23 survey to 56%. Leni Robredo’s numbers rose by 9%, from 15% in February to 24%.

Marcos remains the frontrunner in all geographical areas — 64% in Metro Manila, 54% in the rest of Luzon, 48% in the Visayas, and 62% in Mindanao. However, he lost points in all these areas — 2% in Metro Manila, 4% in the rest of Luzon, 5% in the Visayas, and 6% in Mindanao.

Robredo registered 17% in Metro Manila, 30% in the rest of Luzon, 28% in the Visayas, and 14% in Mindanao. However, except in Metro Manila where she lost 1%, she scored big in all the regional areas. She gained 14% in the rest of Luzon, and 9% each in the Visayas and in Mindanao.

Marcos still leads across social classes, but his numbers in these classifications also went down — 4% for people belonging to Class C, 5% for Class D, and 6% for Class E. Robredo gained 13% from Class C, 10% from Class D, and 9% from Class E.

Barry Gutierrez, Robredo’s spokesperson, said. “The survey numbers are starting to reflect what we have been seeing on the ground all along: the massive crowds, the fierce passion, the untiring commitment of Filipinos from all walks of life, coming together to rally behind Leni Robredo’s bid for the presidency.”

An event that could have influenced the ratings of Marcos and Robredo in the Pulse Asia survey was the pastoral letter the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines sent to their flock on Feb. 25, just days after Pulse Asia completed its February survey. The letter belied the narrative that Ferdinand Marcos’s presidency was the Golden Age of a booming economy, golden infrastructure, discipline and order.

The letter warned the electorate of the radical distortions in the history of Martial Law and the EDSA People Power Revolution. It said, “An election or any process that is not based on truth is but a deception and cannot be trusted. Thus, and also in view of the coming elections, we call on you, Brothers and Sisters — especially the Youth, to examine carefully what is happening in our quest for a true and just society.”

Robredo’s gains in voter preference as indicated in the Pulse Asia survey may be significant but they are not enough to overcome the lead of Marcos. If the Kakampinks do not want an administration elected based on lies as the Catholic Bishops warn, then they should seize the momentum created by the pastoral letter to turn the tide in favor of Robredo.

Now that the Robredo campaign strategists have intensified the house-to-house campaign, the Kakampinks should tell the true story of the Martial Law years in every house they visit. They should tell the household that Bongbong cannot deliver on his promises as he has been a pampered and privileged individual all his life, and that he is lazy which is why he has no accomplishments to speak of.

They can use the slogan “Babangon muli” to project the specter of Ferdinand Marcos, the “Greatest Robber of Government” as the Guinness Book of Records describes him, coming back to life in the person of Bongbong. The message “Babangon muli” can be made to mean bringing back the horrible Conjugal Dictatorship, which stands for massive corruption, boundless extravagance, and unrestrained oppression.

To counter the narrative of a Golden Age propagated by an army of trolls over the last three years, the Kakampinks should narrate in every house they visit the sordid stories of warrantless arrests and of torture of political enemies and critics, the Jabidah Massacre and other mass murders, the soaring prices of basic commodities, the long queues for rice rations, and frequent widescale blackouts during Martial Law.

Those are the stories the Kakampinks should tell the folks in the countryside who have no access to social media, much less to mainstream media now that the far-flung network of ABS-CBN has been denied use of the air lanes. They should leave flyers that the voters in the house can read.

They need not produce a comic book like the one that foiled Bongbong’s first bid for the Senate in 1995. Simple flyers that tell the truth about Bongbong Marcos, like the posts that saturate social media now, will do.

 

Oscar P. Lagman, Jr. is a retired corporate executive, business consultant, and management professor. He has been a politicized citizen since his college days in the late 1950s.

The total package

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

Whenever I dream of what we could become, the term “total package” crosses my mind. It is mission-focused and considers the necessary capabilities, enablers, and tools necessary to make things happen. At ground level, these include:

a. Transforming our educational, political, cultural and economic systems and institutions necessary to drive nation-building initiatives.

b. Developing the country’s brain trust with the right mindset to influence the government and society to continually improve the state of the nation.

c. Cobbling a treasured collection of international and domestic collaborators to build all the necessary infrastructure to grow and develop our economy.

There’s a catch though. Those are long-range in nature, and unattractive to politicians with short-sighted self-serving time frames. This is more suited for statesmen and nation-builders with the vision, willingness, and patience to win the future. Admittedly, there are only a few willing to fold their sleeves for the long journey to a better Philippines.

Let’s take Vice-President Leni Robredo’s vision of transforming the country into a maritime power. It will take time but the foundations need to be laid. It’s clear to her that the Philippines is an archipelagic state with a large maritime domain requiring a strong merchant marine and Navy. A maritime power’s core elements are: geographic position; coastline; adequate and well-positioned ports; population size; sea-related activities; and good statecraft. Except for that last element that must be fulfilled, our country has all the other elements. Unfortunately, past and present administrations failed to exploit those.

We don’t build our own ships although we have foreign shipbuilders operating here. Our mariners account for around one-third of the world’s mariners, but they serve on ships belonging to other flags. UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021 cited the Philippines as Asia’s top global provider of both seafarers and officers that play a key role in global logistics. IDE-Jetro provides research on how the Philippines has changed its policies and laws concerning seafarer training, overseas employment support, and legal protection while responding to the changes in the global seafarer labor market, such as seafarer shortages in advanced shipping countries. In this regard, we are the gold standard. But we can do much more.

Should VP Robredo beat the odds and become the country’s next president, she’ll have her hands full. A shipbuilding industry has a very specific character. For example, fittings, fixtures, and man-hour requirements differ from ship to ship. It’s not a mass production item. Building the industry requires clear policy directions, appropriate legislation, economic growth, financial support, technical innovation, managerial and technical skills, and expanding trade routes. Ancillary industries, like steel, tools and parts manufacture, will be essential to its success.

We do have a scattering of small shipyards building, for example, multi-purpose attack craft, landing utility transports, offshore patrol vessels, fishing boats, barges, tugboats, leisure craft, and fast ferry boats. But they lack the wherewithal to service the vast commercial and security requirements of local and international markets, to include e.g., cruise liners, superyachts, oil and gas tankers, bulk cargo and container ships. The failure to support them has evidently stunted the industry’s growth. And because we’ve neglected it, we haven’t built the ships needed by our Navy and Coast Guard to defend and protect our national interests.

I envy the countries who were once behind the Philippines commercially and militarily in the 1950s and ’60s. For example, South Korea, Indonesia, and Singapore who, in the process, have enlarged their manufacturing and technological capacities. Had we done the same, we’d also be supplying the region and other parts of the world. If we only kept in step with our neighbors, we’d by now be churning out our own landing docks, submarines, frigates, corvettes, mines for warfare, offshore patrol vessels, fast missile attack crafts, replenishment and floating dry dock platforms.

Not only that. We’d be collaborating with foreign suppliers of weapons, combat systems, and non-combat equipment to equip those platforms that, in time, could also be manufactured domestically by public-private partnerships. These would include helicopters, communications systems, radar and sonar systems, missiles and rockets, guided munitions, air- sea- and land-based drones, crew-served weapons and ammunition. The direct benefits would be increases in GDP, technology transfers, purchasing power parity, value added, skills and knowledge.

VP Robredo has given the distinct impression that she understands the security-development nexus: that both are two faces of the same coin, that one cannot stand without the other. Becoming a maritime power will require transformed institutions, the brain trust and troves of partners and collaborators to make it happen. If she does it correctly, she’d be strengthening elements of our national power — academic and training institutions, human resources, economic diplomacy, industrial base, strategic infrastructure, and national security.

I’m picking up signals that foreign investors see VP Robredo as the best candidate that could restore trust and confidence in the country. By providing an enabling environment, foreign direct investments could surpass the peaks registered during the Ramos and Duterte administrations in 1998 and 2017, respectively, after 20 years of mostly mediocre and erratic performance. With a good economic team in place, good governance on the move, socio-political stability and professional security forces, the country may weather the natural and geopolitical turbulence affecting the global commons.

That will require a whole-of-government effort, national and local, to increase disincentives for malfeasance and misfeasance, while increasing incentives for good behavior and performance. A unifying and visionary leadership, no-nonsense governance and civic responsibility for the common good are indispensable to the effort. That’s essentially the total package.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.

 

Rafael “Raffy” M. Alunan III is a member and former governor of the MAP, chair of Philippine Council for Foreign Relations, vice-chair of Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines, Inc. and sits on the boards of other companies as independent director.

map@map.org.ph

rmalunan@gmail.com

Duterte’s Philippine Economic Debriefing

Last week, on April 5, I attended the Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) at the PICC, a sort of valedictory address by the Duterte administration led by Secretary of Finance Carlos G. Dominguez. The Opening Remarks were given by Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea, then the main report, “The Ship of State Has Been Masterfully Steered,” delivered by Mr. Dominguez, followed by “Monetary, External, and Financial Sector Updates” by Governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Benjamin E. Diokno.

It was followed by a press conference with seven officials in the panel: Mr. Dominguez, Mr. Diokno, Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon M. Lopez, Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar, Tourism Secretary Bernadette T. Romulo-Puyat, NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) Undersecretary Rose Edillon, and Transportation Undersecretary Giovanni Z. Lopez.

Mr. Dominguez emphasized in his report that the “Duterte presidency made the turn towards more inclusive growth and prosperity…. Our 2020 GDP would have plunged deeper by 13.3% instead of 9.6%… The Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Law is a crowning achievement of this administration.”

I titled this piece as economic “debriefing” because the comparative regional macroeconomic data do not seem to conform with these claims for the Philippines. And here are some numbers covering the 12 major economies of East and South Asia. Data sources are the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database from October 2021 and the ADB Asian Development Outlook (ADO) from April 2022.

One, in average GDP growth from 2011-2016 to 2017-2021, the Philippines had the biggest decline of 3.1 percentage point along with India. The Philippines’ average growth of 3.1% in the last five years was high compared to those of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Japan, true. But the Philippines came from an average growth of 6.2% under the previous administration, so the percent point decline was starkly huge.

Two, the Philippines is the only economy that experienced a rising inflation rate over the same period, an increase of 0.7% percentage point, while the 11 other economies had zero or declining prices. Our average inflation rate from 2011-2017 of 3.4% was the second highest after India, while our five ASEAN neighbors had only 0.6% to 2.7%.

Three, the Philippines experienced the highest inflation rate of 5.2% among these economies in 2018 — the first year of implementation of the TRAIN law. The next highest inflation was Vietnam’s at 3.5% and lowest was Singapore’s at 0.4% that year. The oil tax hikes Part 1 — diesel from zero to P2.50/liter, gasoline from P4.35/liter to P6.50/liter, etc. — implemented that year triggered a series of commodity price increases, from food to wages and rentals. The diesel tax became P6/liter, gasoline P10/liter, etc. in 2020.

Four, inflation started to creep upwards in March this year to 4% due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the US-led economic sanctions against Russia that has dragged perhaps the whole world economy into an inflationary spiral (see Table 1). Hence, the clamor by some sectors to suspend or reverse the oil tax hikes of the TRAIN law to help reduce prices in the Philippines.

Five, from 2019 to 2021 the Philippines had the second-highest increase of 5.2% in its budget deficit/GDP ratio after Thailand.  The Finance department, Congress, and many sectors of the country were swayed by Keynesian economic thinking — when household and private spending and investment declines, government spending should expand fast to “stimulate” overall demand — a questionable if not unrealistic philosophy in the current world.

Six, the expected “stimulated” rise in demand with high deficit spending did not happen as shown by -9.6% GDP contraction of the Philippines in 2020, the worst since post-WW2. In contrast, Vietnam and Taiwan did not significantly expand their deficit spending and they managed to have GDP growth of 2.9% and 3.4% respectively. This is a slap in the face of Keynesian economics in the last two years.

Seven, in external debt outstanding, the Philippines had the second largest increase of 27% from 2019 to 2021, next to South Korea’s 34% (see Table 2).

On the positive side, the Duterte administration should be recognized and credited for some good moves and fiscal reforms. Among these is the new Ease of Doing Business Act, principally initiated by the Department of Trade and Industry under Secretary Ramon Lopez. We need more businesses and job creators, not more bureaucracies.

The BSP under Mr. Diokno has consistently managed our external account. There was a buildup of our gross international reserves (GIR), from $79.2 billion in 2018 to $110.1 billion in 2020 and $108.8 billion in 2021. This was equivalent to about 10 months of imports cover and so we are shielded from any energy imports supply shock because of this huge GIR level. Also, there was the BSP’s Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap that strengthened the digital payment ecosystem.

I saw at the event the new President of Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), George Barcelon. Since they are the biggest business organization in the country, I asked him his assessment of the PEB. His response:

“Build, Build, Build initiatives were successful in roads, railways, airports and sea ports all over the country. On tax reforms, TRAIN, CREATE (Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act), the Public Service Act, the Foreign Investment Act, and the Retail Trade liberalization Act, etc. will transform our nation’s ability to attract Foreign Investments and fiscal support for health and education. The private sector was disappointed in the handling of COVID-19 during the initial stages wherein strict quarantine was imposed without stakeholders’ involvement in the decision-making process. But credit goes to the cooperation and discipline of business owners and the general populace. The minor glitches are gaps that can be addressed. The new administration can leverage on the present administration’s ground work.”

If I have to grade the Duterte administration’s overall economic performance in the last six years from 1.0 to 5.0 with 1 as excellent and 5 as failure, just looking at internal figures I will give it a 2.5. But considering the comparative performance of our neighbors in the region, I will give it a 3-3.5: 2.0 in 2017-2019 and 4.5 in 2020-2021 because of its strict prolonged lockdown and mobility restrictions, and implicit mandatory vaccination policy.

Hoping that the next administration will not follow the pitfalls of this government. And to secure change in economic policies in the next six years, the Duterte-allied Bongbong Marcos — Sara Duterte tandem should not win.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

Directions in middle power diplomacy for a Leni Robredo presidency

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

The Philippines is a maritime nation. Additionally, an archipelagic state with a coastline of 18,000 km in length, it is a country in which 60% of its total population are coastal dwellers whose livelihoods and food security depend on the preservation of marine systems and protection from climate change — induced extreme weather patterns.

Understanding our maritime and archipelagic identities as a nation is more crucial than ever. It is tied with our foreign/security priorities as a small state in the context of hegemonic rivalries, rising powers’ reclamation of their spheres of influence, and a changing hierarchy of security concerns made evident during the pandemic. Acknowledging our role in terms of the impact of our positioning in Southeast Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific region will shape how the next administration will advance Philippine foreign policy and diplomatic interests.

The components of the National Security Policy (NSP) 2017-2022 reflect our construction of our archipelagic and maritime identities in which the threats of piracy in the porous southern maritime border, maritime domain awareness priorities, claims in the South China Sea, interest in the Benham rise, and maritime boundary delineation form part of the Philippines’ maritime security interests. The Duterte Administration underscores the “protection of trade and marine resources against piracy, poaching, illegal intrusion, terrorism and human trafficking at sea” in its 12 Point National Security Agenda. However, in practice these are compartmentalized by a hierarchy of security concerns that privileges internal/land-based security over external/maritime security. This privileging has resulted in the deprioritization of integrated coastal development, maritime law enforcement, maritime transport, shipbuilding and port services.

Furthermore, a security framing based on the primacy of the more than 50-year-old communist threat and of illegal drugs as the country’s major internal security challenge radically reduces a national security policy focus on emerging nonconventional and existential security challenges of climate change and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and marine degradation. Climate change, which has been relegated as a part of “other strategic concerns” in the NSP, affects coastal livelihoods and marine systems health. With P24 billion to P37.8 billion in losses due to illegal fishing, it poses a threat to the nation’s human security.

Our construction of identity as a maritime/archipelagic nation must be sealed by our “positioning” as a small state in international relations. Small states, as distinct from the major and great powers, have been cast into the spotlight with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s assertion of power against Southeast Asia’s littoral states. Small states are not necessarily minor powers and given the balance between the resources and influence they are in possession of, small states may assert themselves through middle power diplomacy.

Middle powers are challenged to transform their material capabilities and resources to influence by capitalizing on international regimes building, coalition formation, norm diffusion, and niche diplomacy. In the context of a fluid and unpredictable security infrastructure, the Philippines with other middle powers in ASEAN can opt to advance middle power diplomacy based on a strategic autonomy from great powers and great power competition in the South China Sea and the larger Indo-Pacific region. As a low middle power (Lowy Institute 2021), it ought to leverage the elements of its power “to direct or influence the behavior of other states, non-state actors, and the course of international events.” Diplomatic influence based on its defense networks, and ASEAN’s dialogue partnerships in the ARF, EAS, and APEC and multilateralism are what the Philippines can capitalize on while it simultaneously builds the military’s credible deterrence capabilities. Domestically, it should pay attention to our climate change resilience gap, made more pronounced during the pandemic, by implementing a convergence in health, food, and environmental security and foreign policies. Major gaps in domestic institutions strengthening have to be addressed in order to fortify a credible image as a normative middle power in the ASEAN region, specifically in areas of multilateral leadership (such as women, peace, and security) where the Philippines has a strong track record to speak of.

Indeed, norm diffusion is a strategy that a Leni Robredo-led executive has the credibility to follow through. However, it will remain incumbent upon her administration to weigh in on the middle power strategies based on distancing and hedging against regional superpowers that the Duterte administration has instituted.

In the maritime domain, emphasis should be made in promoting a South China Sea Code of Conduct, practical cooperation involving the US and China and non-superpowers such as the Middle Power Quad (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and India) in maritime domain awareness, marine protection, and maritime safety, and in upholding the UN arbitral ruling (2016). A middle power positioning should revitalize the role of the military as it pivots from a prioritization based on internal security to humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) and military diplomacy.

These are some of the concrete means to operationalize middle power diplomacy for the next administration.

 

Alma Maria O. Salvador is an associate professor of Political Science at the Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines.

Macron and Le Pen face French runoff with Europe-wide impact

FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron — BLOOMBERG

PRESIDENT Emmanuel Macron is set to face his nationalist rival Marine Le Pen in the final round of the French election in a re-run of their 2017 contest that will reverberate across Europe.

Mr. Macron got 27.6% of the vote compared with 23.4% for Ms. Le Pen, according to interior ministry figures based on 97% of registered voters counted. Snap polls taken after voting ended gave the 44-year-old president a narrow advantage heading into a runoff on April 24. Three surveys showed him leading by at least 54% to 46% while others showed a narrower lead. European stock futures dropped on polls showing a tight race.

“The game isn’t over yet,” Mr. Macron told his supporters in a short speech on Sunday night.

While the president’s perceived arrogance turns off many voters and helped Ms. Le Pen to frame him as “the president of the rich,” he’s made France a favored destination for foreign investors and pushed employment to the highest on record. He’s also been at the forefront of efforts to halt the war in Ukraine, to deepen economic ties between European Union members and, as leader of the bloc’s most powerful military, to forge a common defense policy.

All that may unravel if he’s defeated by Ms. Le Pen.

“The debate we‘ll have in the next two weeks will be decisive for our country and for Europe,” Mr. Macron said.

As the polls narrowed before the first round of voting, French equities, bonds and the euro all came under pressure on concern that a Le Pen presidency would make France less business friendly and more euroskeptic.

Mr. Macron had avoided explicit campaigning until close to the vote, instead, casting himself as a safe pair of hands during unstable times as he focused on the Ukraine crisis. His key asset heading into the election is a strong economic record.

Ms. Le Pen though campaigned hard across the country on the cost-of-living crisis, tapping into concern about inflation. Her supporters were buoyant on Sunday night, singing the French national anthem as the initial projections were released showing she’d eclipsed her first-round result from 2017.

“All of those who didn’t vote for Emmanuel Macron today, of course, should join this movement,” she told the cheering crowd. “I call on the French people from the left or the right, of whatever origin, to join this great national and popular movement.”

“I am persuaded Marine Le Pen can win,” said Jean-Paul Garraud, a lawmaker in the European Parliament who switched allegiance from France’s traditional center-right party, the Republicans, to back the nationalist. “Macron is now on the defensive.”

Republican candidate Valerie Pecresse, who got 4.8%, called on her supporters to back Mr. Macron in the second round, even as she criticized the president for driving voters toward Ms. Le Pen. Green leader Yannick Jadot, who got 4.6%, backed Mr. Macron as did a handful of other candidates.

Eric Zemmour, a former TV pundit convicted three times for hate speech who had also pitched for the far-right vote, urged his supporters to back Ms. Le Pen. Mr. Zemmour came fourth with 7.1%.

“The extreme right has a lot of support in our country,” Mr. Macron’s junior minister for Europe, Clement Beaune, said in an interview. “There is a battle to be won.”

The critical pool is likely to be the 22% of voters who backed Jean-Luc Melenchon, the far-left firebrand who came third. In a concession speech, Mr. Melenchon told his supporters they should give “not one vote” to Ms. Le Pen but he did not endorse Mr. Macron. Ms. Le Pen’s protectionist stance on economic issues has allowed her to reach some voters who have traditionally backed left-wing candidates and have been angered by Mr. Macron’s support for business and investment.

“Melenchon’s voters won’t want Macron to be re-elected,” Garraud said. “What will they do?”

A presidential debate scheduled for April 20, will be key. Ms. Le Pen’s 2017 campaign was effectively sunk by a disastrous performance in that year’s televised head-to-head and she has been working with advisers to ensure she’s better prepared this time around.

Mr. Macron starts campaigning again on Monday, when he will visit northern France and sit for an interview on BFM TV in the evening. — Bloomberg

War to cut Ukraine’s GDP output by over 45% — WB

WASHINGTON — Ukraine’s economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1% this year as Russia’s invasion has shuttered businesses, slashed exports and rendered economic activity impossible in large swaths of the country, the World Bank (WB) said on Sunday.

The World Bank also forecast Russia’s 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) output to fall 11.2% due to punishing financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies on Russia’s banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.

The World Bank’s “War in the Region” economic update said the Eastern Europe region, comprising Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, is forecast to show a GDP contraction of 30.7% this year, due to shocks from the war and disruption of trade.

Growth in 2022 in the Central Europe region, comprising Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania, will be cut to 3.5% from 4.7% previously due to the influx of refugees, higher commodity prices and deteriorating confidence hurting demand.

For Ukraine, the World Bank report estimates that over half of the country’s businesses are closed, while others are operating at well under normal capacity. The closure of Black Sea shipping from Ukraine has cut off some 90% of the country’s grain exports and half of its total exports.

The World Bank said the war has rendered economic activity impossible in many areas, and is disrupting agricultural planting and harvest operations.

Estimates of infrastructure damage exceeding $100 billion by early March — about two-thirds of Ukraine’s 2019 GDP — are well out of date “as the war has raged on and caused further damage.”

The bank said the 45.1% contraction estimate excludes the impact of physical infrastructure destruction, but said this would scar future economic output, along with the outflow of Ukrainian refugees to other countries.

The World Bank said the magnitude of Ukraine’s contraction is “subject to a high degree of uncertainty” over the war’s duration and intensity.

A downside scenario in the report, reflecting further commodity price shocks and a loss of financial market confidence triggered by an escalation of the war, could result in a 75% contraction in Ukraine’s GDP and a 20% contraction in Russia’s output.

This scenario would lead to a 9% contraction in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia region of emerging market and developing economies — more than double the drop in the baseline forecast.

“The Russian invasion is delivering a massive blow to Ukraine’s economy and it has inflicted enormous damage to infrastructure,” Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s vice president for Europe and Central Asia, said in a statement.

“Ukraine needs massive financial support immediately as it struggles to keep its economy going and the government running to support Ukrainian citizens who are suffering and coping with an extreme situation.”

The World Bank has already marshaled about $923 million in loans and grants for Ukraine, and is preparing a further support package of more than $2 billion.

“Rapid IMF and World Bank assistance has allowed Ukraine fiscal space to pay salaries for civilians, soldiers, doctors, and nurses, while also meeting its external debt obligations,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who oversees the US controlling share in the World Bank, told US lawmakers during a hearing last week. — Reuters

Shanghai to lift lockdown in some areas despite rise in COVID cases

REUTERS

SHANGHAI — Authorities in China’s financial center of Shanghai said they would start lifting lockdown in some areas from Monday, despite reporting more than 25,000 new COVID-19 infections, as they strive to get the city moving again after more than two weeks.

Shanghai has classed residential units into three risk categories, to allow those in areas without positive cases for a stretch of two weeks to engage in “appropriate activity” in their neighborhoods, city official Gu Honghui said.

“Each district will announce the specific names of the first batch (of communities) divided into the three types, and three subsequent lists will be announced in a timely manner,” he told a news briefing.

That promises relief for some of the city’s 25 million residents, many of whom struggled to find food and medicine after more than three weeks locked down in the battle on China’s biggest outbreak since coronavirus was first discovered in central Wuhan in late 2019.

Mr. Gu said Shanghai had divided the city into 7,624 areas that are still sealed off, a group of 2,460 now subject to “controls” after a week of no new infections, and 7,565 “prevention areas” that will be opened up after two weeks without a positive case.

Those living in “prevention areas,” though able to move around their neighborhoods, must observe social distancing and could find themselves sealed off again if there are new infections, he said.

Shanghai would make “dynamic” adjustments to the new system, Mr. Gu added, vowing greater efforts to minimize the impact of curbs on ordinary people in China’s most populous city.

“We also hope all citizens and friends will continue to support and cooperate,” he said.

Some criticized the move as a big risk at a time when Shanghai’s caseload exceeds 25,000, however.

“I think the Shanghai government has a secret plan to infect the whole of the Chinese people,” said one poster on the Weibo platform, using the name “The Star Broke the Ice.”

Others said authorities had no choice.

“I think this is the Shanghai government admitting it cannot continue locking down while ensuring that its citizens don’t starve to death,” said another Weibo user, posting under the name Ruan Yi.

China’s strategy remains unchanged, however, with national health official Liang Wannian saying the “dynamic clearance” policy was still Shanghai’s “best option.”

It was misleading to view Omicron as “big flu,” and lowering China’s guard would expose its huge elderly population to risk, especially as the virus mutates, said Mr. Liang, the head of the National Health Commission’s working group on COVID-19.

“If we lie flat, the epidemic would just be a disaster for these kinds of vulnerable people,” the People’s Daily newspaper of the ruling Communist Party quoted Mr. Liang as saying on a visit to the eastern city.

Shanghai added 25,173 new asymptomatic infections on Sunday, up from 23,937 the previous day, although symptomatic cases edged down to 914 from 1,006. — Reuters

VOX POPULI | BPO professionals voice their concern about returning to the office

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

Text by Patricia B. Mirasol
Video editing by Earl R. Lagundino

Due to long commutes, rising prices, and a lower quality of life, information technology-business process outsourcing (IT-BPO) employees dread the return to onsite work. They are instead asking that their previous work-from-home (WFH) setup be made permanent.

On April 1, IT-BPO firms registered with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) returned to on-site work after a resolution allowing employees to work from home expired March 31. The said Fiscal Incentives Review Board (FIRB) resolution was implemented in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

A main cause of stress is the rising cost of commodities, said Paolo, one of four BPO employees who requested that they be identified only by their first names. 

“They want us to spend more, on top of the rising prices for food,” he said, adding that salaries have not increased despite inflation. 

Another consideration is the time lost to long commutes, which translates to missed opportunities for quality family time.

For Jaymar, who has a newborn baby, working from home is a boon.

“I can be both a father and a BPO employee,” he said, noting that the quality of his work has remained consistent throughout the past two years. “My clients are very satisfied. [This] WFH setup is very effective for a dad like me.”

Some companies are structured to flourish onsite, BPO frontliner Jason said.

“On the other hand, I’m leaning towards having PEZA revisit companies [whose staff] work even out of their economic zones,” he said. The setup worked for them, he said, adding that “these companies [that have proven to work effectively remotely] are the companies that could apply for either a hybrid solution, or a permanent WFH.”

As pointed out by Dom, who belongs to the Alliance of Call Center Workers, the nature of the industry is remote work.

“I’m disappointed that the government has decided on this with finality. I feel that it’s a badly thought-out idea that reeks of bad timing,” he said. “They’ve failed to consult the very people that generate these economic activities.”

Paolo said employees should be given a choice on how they want to work — whether onsite, WFH, or hybrid.

The workplace of the post-pandemic era needs to adapt with hybrid, flexible personnel policies tailored to the organization’s needs, according to panelists at a Jan. 19 webinar organized by BusinessWorld.

In its 2021 survey, recruitment firm Robert Walters also found that 33% of respondents in the Philippines preferred a hybrid work setup, with 52% saying they’d decline a job offer which requires 100% office attendance in the office.

“You need to listen to employers. They know the sentiments of their employees,” Paolo added. “WFH is not illegal … we’ve proven that it can work.

How Meta fumbled propaganda moderation during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

BYCGZR-FREEPIK AND RAWPIXEL.COM-FREEPIK

Days after the March 9 bombing of a maternity and children’s hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, comments claiming the attack never happened began flooding the queues of workers moderating Facebook and Instagram content on behalf of the apps’ owner, Meta Platforms.

The bombardment killed at least three people, including a child, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said publicly. Images of bloodied, heavily pregnant women fleeing through the rubble, their hands cradling their bellies, sparked immediate outrage worldwide.

Among the most-recognized women was Mariana Vishegirskaya, a Ukrainian fashion and beauty influencer. Photos of her navigating down a hospital stairwell in polka-dot pajamas circulated widely after the attack, captured by an Associated Press photographer.

Online expressions of support for the mother-to-be quickly turned to attacks on her Instagram account, according to two contractors directly moderating content from the conflict on Facebook and Instagram. They spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, citing non-disclosure agreements that barred them from discussing their work publicly.

The case involving the beauty influencer is just one example of how Meta’s content policies and enforcement mechanisms have enabled pro-Russian propaganda during the Ukraine invasion, the moderators told Reuters.

Russian officialdom seized on the images, setting them side-by-side against her glossy Instagram photos in an effort to persuade viewers that the attack had been faked. On state television and social media, and in the chamber of the UN Security Council, Moscow alleged — falsely — that Ms. Vishegirskaya had donned make-up and multiple outfits in an elaborately staged hoax orchestrated by Ukrainian forces.

Swarms of comments accusing the influencer of duplicity and being an actress appeared underneath old Instagram posts of her posed with tubes of makeup, the moderators said.

At the height of the onslaught, comments containing false allegations about the woman accounted for most of the material in one moderator’s content queue, which normally would have contained a mix of posts suspected of violating Meta’s myriad policies, the person recalled.

“The posts were vile,” and appeared to be orchestrated, the moderator told Reuters. But many were within the company’s rules, the person said, because they did not directly mention the attack. “I couldn’t do anything about them,” the moderator said.

Reuters was unable to contact Ms. Vishegirskaya.

Meta declined to comment on its handling of the activity involving Ms. Vishegirskaya, but said in a statement to Reuters that multiple teams are addressing the issue.

“We have separate, expert teams and outside partners that review misinformation and inauthentic behavior and we have been applying our policies to counter that activity forcefully throughout the war,” the statement said.

Meta policy chief Nick Clegg separately told reporters on Wednesday that the company was considering new steps to address misinformation and hoaxes from Russian government pages, without elaborating.

Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media and the Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment.

Representatives of Ukraine did not respond to a request for comment.

‘SPIRIT OF THE POLICY’
Based at a moderation hub of several hundred people reviewing content from Eastern Europe, the two contractors are foot soldiers in Meta’s battle to police content from the conflict. They are among tens of thousands of low-paid workers at outsourcing firms around the world that Meta contracts to enforce its rules.

The tech giant has sought to position itself as a responsible steward of online speech during the invasion, which Russia calls a “special operation” to disarm and “denazify” its neighbor.

Just a few days into the war, Meta imposed restrictions on Russian state media and took down a small network of coordinated fake accounts that it said were trying to undermine trust in the Ukrainian government.

It later said it had pulled down another Russia-based network that was falsely reporting people for violations like hate speech or bullying, while beating back attempts by previously disabled networks to return to the platform.

Meanwhile, the company attempted to carve out space for users in the region to express their anger over Russia’s invasion and to issue calls to arms in ways Meta normally would not permit.

In Ukraine and 11 other countries across Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, it created a series of temporary “spirit of the policy” exemptions to its rules barring hate speech, violent threats and more; the changes were intended to honor the general principles of those policies rather than their literal wording, according to Meta instructions to moderators seen by Reuters.

For example, it permitted “dehumanizing speech against Russian soldiers” and calls for death to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ally Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, unless those calls were considered credible or contained additional targets, according to the instructions viewed by Reuters.

The changes became a flashpoint for Meta as it navigated pressures both inside the company and from Moscow, which opened a criminal case into the firm after a March 10 Reuters report made the carve-outs public. Russia also banned Facebook and Instagram inside its borders, with a court accusing Meta of “extremist activity.”

Meta walked back elements of the exceptions after the Reuters report. It first limited them to Ukraine alone and then canceled one altogether, according to documents reviewed by Reuters, Meta’s public statements, and interviews with two Meta staffers, the two moderators in Europe and a third moderator who handles English-language content in another region who had seen the advisories.

The documents offer a rare lens into how Meta interprets its policies, called community standards. The company says its system is neutral and rule-based.

Critics say it is often reactive, driven as much by business considerations and news cycles as by principle. It’s a complaint that has dogged Meta in other global conflicts including Myanmar, Syria and Ethiopia. Social media researchers say the approach allows the company to escape accountability for how its policies affect the 3.6 billion users of its services.

The shifting guidance over Ukraine has generated confusion and frustration for moderators, who say they have 90 seconds on average to decide whether a given post violates policy, as first reported by the New York Times. Reuters independently confirmed such frustrations with three moderators.

After Reuters reported the exemptions on March 10, Meta policy chief Nick Clegg said in a statement the next day that Meta would allow such speech only in Ukraine.

Two days later, Mr. Clegg told employees the company was reversing altogether the exemption that had allowed users to call for the deaths of Putin and Lukashenko, according to a March 13 internal company post seen by Reuters.

At the end of March, the company extended the remaining Ukraine-only exemptions through April 30, the documents show. Reuters is the first to report this extension, which allows Ukrainians to continue engaging in certain types of violent and dehumanizing speech that normally would be off-limits.

Inside the company, writing on an internal social platform, some Meta employees expressed frustration that Facebook was allowing Ukrainians to make statements that would have been deemed out of bounds for users posting about previous conflicts in the Middle East and other parts of the world, according to copies of the messages viewed by Reuters.

“Seems this policy is saying hate speech and violence is ok if it is targeting the ‘right’ people,” one employee wrote, one of 900 comments on a post about the changes.

Meanwhile, Meta gave moderators no guidance to enhance their ability to disable posts promoting false narratives about Russia’s invasion, like denials that civilian deaths have occurred, the people told Reuters.

The company declined to comment on its guidance to moderators.

DENYING VIOLENT TRAGEDIES
In theory, Meta did have a rule that should have enabled moderators to address the mobs of commenters directing baseless vitriol at Ms. Vishegirskaya, the pregnant beauty influencer. She survived the Mariupol hospital bombing and delivered her baby, the Associated Press reported.

Meta’s harassment policy prohibits users from “posting content about a violent tragedy, or victims of violent tragedies that include claims that a violent tragedy did not occur,” according to the Community Standards published on its website. It cited that rule when it removed posts by the Russian Embassy in London that had pushed false claims about the Mariupol bombing following the March 9 attack.

But because the rule is narrowly defined, two of the moderators said, it could be used only sparingly to battle the online hate campaign against the beauty influencer that followed.

Posts that explicitly alleged that the bombing was staged were eligible for removal, but comments such as “you’re such a good actress” were considered too vague and had to stay up, even when the subtext was clear, they said.

Guidance from Meta enabling commenters to consider context and enforce the spirit of that policy could have helped, they added.

Meta declined to comment on whether the rule applied to the comments on Ms. Vishegirskaya’s account.

At the same time, even explicit posts proved elusive to Meta’s enforcement systems.

A week after the bombing, versions of the Russian Embassy posts were still circulating on at least eight official Russian accounts on Facebook, including its embassies in Denmark, Mexico and Japan, according to an Israeli watchdog organization, FakeReporter.

One showed a red “fake” label laid over the Associated Press photos of Mariupol, with text claiming the attack on Ms. Vishegirskaya was a hoax, and pointing readers to “more than 500 comments from real users” on her Instagram account condemning her for participating in the alleged ruse.

Meta removed those posts on March 16, hours after Reuters asked the company about them, a spokesperson confirmed. Meta declined to comment on why the posts had evaded its own detection systems.

The following day, on March 17, Meta designated Ms. Vishegirskaya an “involuntary public person,” which meant moderators could finally start deleting the comments under the company’s bullying and harassment policy, they told Reuters.

But the change, they said, came too late. The flow of posts related to the woman had already slowed to a trickle. — Katie Paul and Munsif Vengattil/Reuters

Musk polls followers on converting Twitter HQ to homeless shelter; Bezos likes idea

Twitter headquarters in San Francisco, California. Runner1928/CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons

Two of the world’s richest people are pitching in ideas to tackle the issue of homelessness, suggesting that Twitter Inc. convert its headquarters to a shelter home. 

Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos on Sunday backed an idea put forth by Elon Musk, who recently became Twitter’s largest shareholder, to convert the social networking firm’s San Francisco headquarters into a homeless shelter as few people are working there during the pandemic. 

Mr. Bezos tweeted an article by technology-focused blog GeekWire from May 2020 about Amazon’s eight-floor family homeless shelter attached to its Seattle headquarters, saying the initiative worked out great and makes it easy for employees who wish to volunteer. 

Mr. Bezos also suggested converting at least a portion of Twitter’s headquarters, if not all of it, into a homeless shelter. Mr. Musk agreed in another tweet, calling it a “Great idea.” 

Mr. Musk, who has more than 81 million followers on Twitter, started a poll on Saturday, asking users to vote if the building should be converted. The poll gained over a million votes in less than a day, with more that 90% saying yes. 

The chief executive of electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc., who frequently tweets about his company and other topics, has been known to leave people confused as to whether he is joking. However, Mr. Musk clarified this time he was not joking. “I’m serious about this one btw,” he tweeted, following up on the topic on Sunday. 

A separate poll by Mr. Musk on Sunday asked if “w” should be deleted from Twitter’s name, leaving two voting options, “yes” and “of course.” 

Mr. Musk had suggested a raft of changes to the Twitter Blue premium subscription service on Saturday, including reducing its price, banning advertising and giving an option to pay in the cryptocurrency dogecoin. — Reuters

Macron or Le Pen: why it matters for France, the EU, and the West

The Elysée Palace in Paris, France. — ELYSEE.FR

PARIS — The French will decide on April 24 whether to re-elect pro-business centrist President Emmanuel Macron or blow up decades of mainstream consensus in favor of far-right Marine Le Pen. 

Here’s what to expect from them on major issues:  

THE ECONOMY
LE PEN: The far-right heiress has transformed the former National Front, turning her father’s free-market, small-government party into a big-spending, protectionist one. 

She wants to implement a “Buy French” policy for public tenders, cut the minimum retirement age to 60 for those who started work before 20, scrap income tax for those aged under 30, and cut VAT on energy to 5.5% from 20%. 

She would also spend 2 billion euros ($2.18 billion) over 5 years raising hospital workers’ salaries and recruiting an extra 10,000 of them. Teachers’ salaries would rise 15% over 5 years. 

Gilles Ivaldi, political scientist at Sciences-Po, says her party’s economic programme is further to the left than it has been for decades.  

MACRON: The French leader plans to double down on supply-side reforms he has implemented during his first mandate, with the main plank of his manifesto being an increase in the minimum pension age to 65 from 62. 

Mr. Macron is also promising to make some welfare benefits conditional on 15-20 hours of training, similar to policies in countries such as the United States or Britain. 

Unemployment insurance, which currently guarantees workers up to two thirds of their salary for two years if they lose their job, would be linked to the strength of the economy. 

In his attempt to stay true to his “neither left nor right” motto, he has also promised to make benefits automatic for those who qualify instead of requiring would-be recipients to apply.  

EUROPE
LE PEN: Although she has abandoned earlier plans to leave the euro and pay France’s debt in newly created francs, Ms. Le Pen has nonetheless pledged to cut contributions to European Union (EU) coffers. Such a move would put Paris on a collision course with the European Commission and other EU members. 

She insists French law should prevail over EU rules, in a challenge to the bloc’s top court, and says she wants eventually to replace the EU with a “Europe of nations,” though she has yet to spell out what that would look like. 

Ms. Le Pen would also employ thousands more customs agents to check goods entering France, including from other EU countries, purportedly to fight fraud. Analysts say that would undermine the single market.  

MACRON: The ardent Europhile would continue his push to develop what he calls Europe’s “strategic autonomy” in defense, technology, agriculture, and energy and reduce the bloc’s dependence on other powers. 

Over the past five years, Mr. Macron has sought to re-orient the EU towards a more protectionist stance, blocking some free-trade deals with other blocs such as Mercosur and creating a mechanism that increases scrutiny of outside takeovers of strategic EU companies. 

Mr. Macron is also likely to push for more regulation of US tech giants and has said he wanted to create a “European metaverse” to compete with Facebook’s.  

THE WESTERN ALLIANCE
LE PEN: Ms. Le Pen wants to pull France out of transatlantic military alliance NATO’s integrated command, in a challenge to the West’s post-Cold War security architecture. 

Opponents accuse her of being too close to Moscow. Her party received a bank loan from a Russian bank in 2014 and she was hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin shortly before the 2017 presidential election. 

She has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but says Moscow could be an ally again post-war. 

In an interview with Reuters, she called herself a “Gaullist,” after wartime leader Charles de Gaulle, and said she would pursue a foreign policy at equal distance from Washington and Moscow. 

Asked if she had a message to France’s traditional allies, Britain and the United States, she said: “Drop the preconceived ideas you have about me.”  

MACRON: Although Mr. Macron ruffled feathers across the trans-Atlantic alliance, notably in eastern Europe and Germany,  when he called NATO “brain-dead” in 2019, he has since said the Russian invasion of Ukraine had “jolted it back to life.” 

He would nonetheless seek to make Europeans less dependent on the US military for security. 

Mr. Macron has pushed the EU to focus more on the Indo-Pacific and China’s rising influence in the region. However, he clashed with Washington, London, and Canberra after Australia ditched a massive submarine deal with France. 

He has been guarded over whether he would seek to cooperate with the new US-UK-Australia security alliance — dubbed AUKUS — against China or try and persuade the EU to pursue its own independent policy towards Beijing. — Michel Rose/Reuters

Shanghai residents question human cost of China’s COVID quarantines

REUTERS

SHANGHAI — Lu, 99, was a long-time resident at Shanghai’s Donghai Elderly Care hospital, her loved ones secure that she was getting round-the-clock care at the city’s largest such center.

That was before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) struck China’s biggest city last month, the country’s worst outbreak since the virus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019, infecting multiple patients, doctors and care workers at the 1,800-bed facility.

Orderlies posted cries for help on social media, saying they were overwhelmed. Relatives told Reuters that there had been several deaths.

Lu, whose relatives asked that she be identified only by her surname, had coronary heart disease and high blood pressure. She caught COVID and, though she had no symptoms, was being transferred to an isolation facility, her family was told on March 25.

She died there seven days later, the cause of death listed as her underlying medical conditions, her granddaughter said.

Among the questions she has about Lu’s final days was why elderly patients had to be quarantined separately, away from the care workers most familiar with their conditions under China’s quarantine rules.

Her frustrations reflect those of many with China’s no-tolerance COVID policy. Everyone testing positive must quarantine in specialized isolation sites, whether they show symptoms or not.

Shanghai has become a test case for the country’s strict policy. Home quarantine is not an option and, until public outrage prompted a change, Shanghai was separating COVID-positive children from their parents.

From March 1 to April 9, China’s financial hub reported some 180,000 locally transmitted infections, 96% of which were asymptomatic. It reported no deaths for the period.

A Donghai staffer who answered the phone on Sunday declined to answer questions, directing Reuters to another department, which did not respond to repeated calls.

Asked for comment, the Shanghai government sent a local media report with a first-person account of life at one of the quarantine centers. The unidentified author said he wanted to dispel fears that such sites were terrible, saying he received ample meals and medicine but recommending people bring earplugs and eye masks.

The authorities did not offer further comment.

The United States has raised concerns about China’s COVID approach, advising its citizens on Friday to reconsider travel to China “due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws and COVID-19 restrictions.” Beijing dismissed the US concerns as “groundless accusations.”

‘DIDN’T DARE BELIEVE IT’ 

When Lu was being quarantined, the family asked, “Who is going to care for her? Will there be care workers, doctors?”, her granddaughter said. “My grandmother is not someone who can live independently.

“If the care worker had COVID and no symptoms, why couldn’t they stay together?” she said. “The chaos and tragedies happening in Shanghai this time really boil down to cruel policies.”

A relative of Donghai patient Shen Peiying, who gave his surname as Qiu, said he believes the quarantine policy contributed to the April 3 death of the bedridden 72-year-old.

She had not caught COVID, he said, citing test records he saw on China’s health app. After weeks of little communication, staff rang to say Shen had died from a chest infection.

Qiu has refused to consent to her cremation, citing such unanswered questions as what care she received after her regular care worker was quarantined.

“If they were all in quarantine, who was there to take care of the patients?,” Qiu said.

Shanghai is doubling down on the quarantine policy, converting schools, recently finished apartment blocks, and vast exhibition halls into centers, the largest of which can hold 50,000 people. Authorities said last week they have set up over 60 such facilities.

These steps, including sending patients to quarantine sites in neighboring provinces, have been greeted by the public with a mixture of awe at their speed and horror over conditions, prompting some Shanghai residents to call for home quarantine to be allowed.

While Chinese state media has shown hospitals with just two or three patients per room, patients like those sent to Shanghai’s giant exhibition centers say they live side by side with thousands of strangers, without walls or showers and with ceiling lights on at all hours.

Videos on Chinese social media have shown hastily converted quarantine sites, including a ramshackle vacant factory where a number of camping beds were placed, a site made out of shipping containers and a school with a poster saying blankets and hot water were not available.

A source verified the first video. Reuters could not independently verify the others.

Management of such sites has been a concern.

One viral video last week showed patients at a site called the Nanhui makeshift hospital fighting for supplies. Reuters could not reach the facility on Sunday for comment.

Among those posting on social media was Shanghai resident Li Tong, who asked for help after his wife was sent there. He said things got better when more staff arrived to organize the patients but that he was shocked by what the videos showed and what his wife told him.

“I didn’t dare believe it, that Shanghai in 2022 could be

like this,” he said. — Brenda Goh/Reuters

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