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PHL converts $11.13-billion World Bank loans to fixed rate 

REUTERS

The Philippines has converted $11.13 billion worth of outstanding World Bank loans to fixed rate from floating rate, a move that could yield as much as $125.1 million in foreign interest payment savings, its finance ministry said on Friday.

The transaction, which was done last month, achieved an average fixed reference rate of 4.19% for the 40 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development loans, which is substantially lower than the prevailing rate, the Department of Finance said in a statement.—Reuters

October remittances hit 10-month high

Cash remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) rose by 3% in October, as migrant Filipinos sent more money home ahead of the holiday season.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) released on Friday showed cash remittances coursed through banks stood at $3 billion in October, higher than the $2.91 billion in the same month last year.

The amount of money sent by OFWs was the highest in ten months, or since the $3.16 billion in December last year.

Month on month, the 3% growth in cash remittances was faster than the 2.6% seen in September and marked the fastest pace in remittance growth since 3.7% in April.

“The growth in cash remittances in October 2023 was primarily due to increased receipts from both land- and sea-based workers,” the central bank said in a statement.

Land-based OFWs sent $2.4 billion in October, up by 3.1% from $2.33 billion in the same month last year.

Remittances from sea-based workers, on the other hand, rose by 2.5% to $600 million in October from $580 million a year ago.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said remittances typically increase in the fourth quarter due to holiday-related spending.

For the first 10 months of the year, cash remittances increased by 2.8% year on year to $27.49 billion.

The growth in cash remittances during the January-to-October period was driven mainly by inflows from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore.

By country source, the United States remained the biggest source of cash remittances at 41.5%. It was followed by Singapore (7%), Saudi Arabia (6%), Japan (5%), United Kingdom (4.8%), United Arab Emirates (4.1%), Canada (3.6%), Qatar (2.8%), Taiwan (2.7%), and Korea (2.5%).

Remittances from the top 10 countries accounted for 80% of the total during the 10-month period.

At the same time, BSP data showed personal remittances increased by 3.1% to $3.3 billion in October. This brought the 10-month tally to $30.57 billion, up by 2.9% from a year ago.

Mr. Ricafort said still-elevated inflation may have prompted migrant workers to send more money home to help their families cope with rising prices.

“OFW remittances have more peso equivalent for every US dollar sent, (which is) a source of consolation for OFWs and their families/dependents, especially in coping with higher prices/inflation, as well as to cope up with higher interest rate payments,” he said.

Headline inflation slowed to 4.9% in October from 6.1% in September, breaching the central bank’s 2-4% target for the 19th straight month.

In October, the Monetary Board raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) in an off-cycle move. This brought the benchmark interest rate to a 16-year high of 6.5%. The BSP has hiked interest rates by a total of 450 bps since May 2022.

Modest growth in cash remittances may continue in the coming months as families still need to cope with high inflation, Mr. Ricafort said.

The central bank expects remittances to grow by 3% this year. — Keisha B. Ta-asan

US regulators add artificial intelligence to potential financial system risks

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Rawpixel.Com from Freepik

WASHINGTON – Rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) could create new risks for the US financial system if the technology is not properly supervised, a panel of regulators warned on Thursday.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which comprises top financial regulators and is chaired by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, flagged the risks posed by AI for the first time in its annual financial stability report.

While the group said AI could spur innovation or efficiencies at financial firms like banks, the rapidly advancing technology requires vigilance from both the companies and their watchdogs.

“AI can introduce certain risks, including safety and soundness risks like cyber and model risks,” the group said in its annual report published Thursday, adding it recommended firms and their regulators “deepen expertise and capacity to monitor AI innovation and usage and identify emerging risks.”

The panel also flagged the growing role of nonbanks and private credit as meriting close attention, and said financial institutions and regulators should continue to try to better gauge risks stemming from climate change.

Some AI tools can be hugely technical and opaque, making it hard for institutions to explain or properly monitor them for shortcomings. If companies and regulators do not fully understand AI tools, then it is possible they could miss biased or inaccurate results, the report said.

It also noted that AI tools increasingly rely on large external datasets and third-party vendors, which pose their own privacy and cybersecurity risks.

Some regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission, which sits on the panel, are scrutinizing how firms use AI, while the White House recently issued an executive order aimed at mitigating AI risk.

Elsewhere in the report, the FSOC noted that the US banking system remains resilient, despite large bank failures this year. But it urged regulators to keep a close eye on uninsured bank deposits, the rapid flight of which triggered the failures.—Reuters

Canada to create citizenship path for undocumented immigrants- Globe and Mail

PRAVEEN KUMAR NANDAGIRI-UNSPLASH

Canada is planning a “broad and comprehensive program” that would allow many undocumented people to apply for permanent residency, the country’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller told The Global and Mail.

The announcement complements Canada’s ambitious immigration targets, which had already aimed to bring in 500,000 immigrants a year by 2025. The country’s population has grown mainly through immigration, and this has helped fuel economic growth in recent years.

An estimated 300,000 to 600,000 people are living in the country without valid documents, many of whom risk deportation because they lack formal status, The Global and Mail quoted Miller as saying.

The new program would also include people who entered the country legally, as temporary workers or international students, and then remained here after their visas expired, the report said.

Miller added that not all those without valid documents will be allowed to apply for permanent residency, including those who have arrived recently in the country.

He plans to submit a proposal to cabinet in the spring on allowing undocumented immigrants to “regularize their status,” the report added.

Amid the housing crunch and high inflation, the government last month kept immigration targets unchanged for the next two years and said it would stop ramping up immigration from 2026 onwards.

Canada is targeting 465,000 new residents this year, 485,000 in 2024 before hitting 500,000 in 2025 – a level it aims to maintain in 2026.—Reuters

Starbucks closed 23 stores to deter unionizing, US agency says

HENRY & CO.—UNSPLASH

A US labor agency is seeking to force Starbucks Corp. to reopen 23 stores that were allegedly shuttered last year to discourage a nationwide union campaign, the latest case to accuse the coffee chain of illegal labor tactics.

A regional director with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) in a complaint issued on Wednesday said that eight of the US stores had already unionized when they closed.

Workers at more than 360 of Starbucks’ 9,300 US stores have voted to join unions since 2021, and the company is facing more than 100 complaints at the NLRB alleging a variety of unlawful union-busting activity.

Starbucks has denied wrongdoing and said it respects workers’ rights to choose whether to unionize.

Starbucks in a statement on Thursday said it conducts annual reviews of its stores and routinely makes changes for a variety of legitimate reasons.

“This includes opening new locations, identifying stores in need of investment or renovation, exploring locations where an alternative format is needed and, in some instances, re-evaluating our footprint,” the company said.

The complaint claims that Starbucks closed the 23 stores without prior notice to Workers United, the union behind the campaign, and without affording the union an opportunity to bargain about the decisions, according to NLRB spokesman Matthew Hayward.

The agency is seeking an order requiring Starbucks to immediately reopen the 23 stores and re-hire employees, bargain with unions at stores that have unionized, and provide compensation to employees who lost pay and benefits, Hayward said.

The case will be heard by an administrative judge, whose decision can be appealed to the five-member NLRB and then to a federal appeals court.

The complaint came on the same day that Starbucks released a report on its labor practices prepared by an independent consultant, which had been requested by shareholders.

The report found that while there was room for Starbucks to improve its messaging on the union campaign, the company had not adopted “an anti-union playbook” that involved violating US labor laws.

An NLRB judge in July found that Starbucks had illegally shuttered a store in Ithaca, New York, months after it unionized. Starbucks is appealing that decision.—Reuters

Germany lifts spending freeze after budget deal clinched, document shows

FREEPIK

BERLIN – Germany’s finance ministry has lifted a freeze on new spending that was imposed more than three weeks ago, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Thursday.

The move comes a day after Germany’s government clinched a last-minute deal on its 2024 budget following weeks of tense talks.

The letter dated Dec. 14 was from State Secretary of Finance Steffen Saebisch to the other government ministries.

“The budget freeze … ordered on Nov. 21, 2023, is hereby lifted with immediate effect,” it read.

The finance ministry added that it nevertheless recommended the “economical use” of funds “in light of the overall budgetary situation.”—Reuters

General Motors to lay off 1,300 workers at two Michigan plants

REUTERS

General Motors (GM) said on Thursday it is laying off 1,300 workers at two Michigan auto factories in early January.

The largest US automaker said 945 workers will be laid off at its Orion Assembly plant, which is ending production of the Chevrolet Bolt EV and being converted for electric truck production that will start in late 2025. Final production of the Bolt at Orion is set for next week, GM said.

Another 350 out of 1,400 total workers at its Lansing Grand River plant will be laid off due to the end of Chevrolet Camaro production, but the factory will continue producing the Cadillac CT4 and Cadillac CT5. GM said affected hourly employees will be offered positions at other factories.

GM disclosed in October it was delaying production of electric pickup trucks at the Orion plant by a year, so the layoff affects all production workers at that plant. The Detroit automaker had been set to begin production of the electric Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra in late 2024 at the suburban Detroit plant.

GM CEO Mary Barra said the delay would enable the automaker “to make engineering and other changes that will make the trucks more efficient and less expensive to produce, and therefore more profitable.”

GM, which has vowed to stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2035, in October said it was abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024.

GM’s rival Ford said in October it was temporarily cutting one shift at its plant that builds the F-150 Lightning EV.

Ford told suppliers this week it planned to produce about 1,600 electric F-150 Lightning EV trucks per week starting in January in 2024, roughly half of the 3,200 it previously had planned.—Reuters

Philippines ‘wargaming’ Chinese hostilities as sea standoffs intensify

PHILIPPINE COAST GUARD/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS

The Philippines is contingency planning for an escalation of hostilities in the South China Sea, according to a senior military official, including a scenario where crew repel Chinese forces attempting to board Philippine vessels.

Ties between the two countries have deteriorated this year after several collisions and repeated standoffs near disputed features of the South China Sea, with the Philippines accusing China of aggressive, deliberate and dangerous manoeuvres.

The Philippines has taken a tougher line with China this year, coinciding with its boosting of military ties with defence treaty ally the United States and increased security engagement with other Western powers.

“Expect more coercive actions from China, short of armed attack,” Alberto Carlos, chief of the Philippines’ Western Command told CNN Philippines late on Wednesday.

“Next after the water cannon is probably ramming and also they will attempt to board our vessel, which is something that we will not allow them to do.”

That scenario, Mr. Carlos said, was part of Philippine war games exercises and academic discussions on what other actions China might take. The Philippines on Tuesday summoned China’s ambassador to protest “back-to-back harassments” at the weekend in different locations, including collisions and use of water cannon.

Beijing has repeatedly accused Philippine vessels operating in Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of trespassing in Chinese waters.

The Philippines has grown increasingly wary of China’s coastguard and the presence of hundreds of Chinese fishing boats that it considers to be militia forces.

“We’re brainstorming this, we are wargaming this and we are prepared for any contingency that will happen,” said Mr. Carlos, whose remit includes defence of the Philippines’ EEZ.

China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce. Those claims, which an arbitral tribunal has declared baseless, extend to the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.—Reuters

BSP keeps key rate steady at 6.5%

People enter a shopping mall in Mandaluyong City, Oct. 1, 2023. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) left its key rate unchanged at 6.5% for a second straight meeting on Thursday but signaled a “tighter-for-longer” policy until inflation expectations have become more firmly anchored.   

At its last policy meeting for the year, the Monetary Board maintained its target reverse repurchase rate at a 16-year high of 6.5%, as expected by 15 economists in a BusinessWorld poll last week.

Interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also left unchanged at 6% and 7%, respectively.

“The Monetary Board continues to see the need to keep monetary policy settings sufficiently tight to allow inflation expectations to settle more firmly within the target range,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said in a statement.   

This is the second straight meeting that the BSP stood pat since its 25-basis-point (bp) off-cycle hike on Oct. 26.   

The central bank raised borrowing costs by a total of 450 bps from May 2022 to October this year.

According to Mr. Remolona, the balance of risks to the inflation outlook remains significantly on the upside.

“Key upside risks are associated with potential pressures emanating from higher transport charges, increased electricity rates, and higher oil prices,” he said.   

The BSP lowered its risk-adjusted inflation forecast for 2023 to 6% (from 6.1% in November) and 4.2% (from 4.4%) for 2024. It kept its inflation forecast at 3.4% for 2025. 

Meanwhile, the BSP maintained its average inflation baseline forecasts at 6% for 2023, 3.7% for 2024, and 3.2% for 2025.   

“Part of the reason for (the adjustment) is some of the risk that we were previously reckoning in the last meeting has been included in the baseline such as the strong El Niño. So, some of the potential upside risks have been made part of the baseline already,” BSP Department of Economic Research Director Dennis D. Lapid said.   

BSP Senior Assistant Governor Iluminada T. Sicat said they anticipate a strong El Niño episode in the first quarter next year, before moderating in the second quarter. The BSP estimates that the El Niño weather event could impact inflation by 0.02 percentage point in 2024.   

Ms. Sicat said inflation may return to the 2-4% target range by the first quarter of next year, but it will quicken to above the target in the second quarter. 

“Inflation is likely to settle (within 2-4%) in the first quarter in 2024 mainly due to the negative base effects but could temporarily accelerate above the target from April to July due to the impact of El Niño weather conditions, the lag impact of wage adjustments in 2023, as well as the positive base effects,” she said.   

“Subsequently, inflation is projected to return to target in the third quarter of 2024 and settle nearer in the midpoint of the target in the fourth quarter of 2024 owing to the decline in the world oil prices,” she added.   

Headline inflation slowed to 4.1% in November from 4.9% in October. November marked the 20th straight month that inflation breached the central bank’s 2-4% target range. In the January-to-November period, inflation averaged 6.2%.   

Mr. Lapid also said the BSP incorporated the looming water rate hike in Metro Manila in their forecasts, but noted it only has a “minor effect.”

The Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System approved an increase of P6.41 per cubic meter for Manila Water Co., and a hike of P7.87 per cubic meter for Maynilad Water Services, Inc. The higher rates will take effect on Jan. 1, 2024.   

Mr. Remolona also said strong demand is expected in the fourth quarter due to sustained consumer spending and improved labor market conditions.   

“The BSP will also continue to monitor how firms and households are responding to tighter monetary policy conditions alongside evolving domestic and external economic conditions,” he said.

Mr. Remolona also said the BSP’s latest survey of private economists shows that inflation expectations have been anchored, as mean forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are within the 2-4% target range.   

In its survey of 25 external analysts between Dec. 5 and Dec. 10, the BSP said there were lower mean inflation forecasts for 2023 (at 6% in December from 6.1% in November) and for 2024 (at 3.9% from 4%).   

However, the mean inflation forecast for 2025 stood at 3.5%, a tad higher than the 3.4% previously.

“The Monetary Board also noted that previous adjustments have continued to work their way through the economy, as can be seen from the declining path for core inflation,” Mr. Remolona said.   

Core inflation, which discounts volatile prices of food and fuel, eased to 4.7% in November from 5.3% in October. In the 11 months to November, core inflation averaged 6.8%. 

“In the coming quarters, the National Government’s non-monetary interventions will remain crucial to sustain the disinflation process. Going forward, the BSP remains ready to adjust monetary policy settings as necessary, in line with its mandate to ensure price stability,” Mr. Remolona added.

EASING IN 2024?
Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said even if the Monetary Board continues to pause, tight monetary policy will continue to weigh on economic growth. 

“Our base case still is that the Board will start easing monetary policy in the first quarter of next year, with 2024 likely to see a total of 100 bps worth of rate cuts, at least, to take pressure off of a slowing economy,” he said. 

Mr. Chanco said the Philippine economy may grow by 4.8% in 2024, slower than a likely 5.4% expansion this year, mainly due to slower private consumption.

He also noted the US Federal Reserve has signaled that a shift to a neutral stance.

“Our house view is that the Fed will slash rates by 150 bps in 2024, giving central banks across the region more than enough room to start normalizing,” he added.

As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5% during the Dec. 12-13 meeting. The Fed has raised policy rates by 525 bps from March 2022 to July 2023.

Meanwhile, ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the BSP is unlikely to cut anytime soon.

“The central bank will likely extend its pause until inflation is well-within target and until inflation expectations are anchored,” he said.

“We expect the BSP to be on hold well into 2024, with potential rate cuts only likely to be considered towards the end of next year,” he added.

PEZA approves P160B worth of investments

By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINE Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) has approved P160.44 billion worth of investments as of Dec. 7, surpassing its full-year target.

“Locator investments represented the bulk of the increase in investments, particularly reinvestments by existing locators,” PEZA Director-General Tereso O. Panga said in a Viber message.

According to Mr. Panga, the value of the projects approved from January to Dec. 7 has already exceeded its full-year target of P154.77 billion.

The tally is also 14% higher than the P140.7-billion worth of projects approved in the same period a year ago.

The amount of approved PEZA investments is still expected to increase. Mr. Panga said the PEZA Board will have its last meeting for the year on Dec. 19.

PEZA data showed 24 projects worth a combined P19.56 billion were approved during last week’s board meeting. However, this was lower than the 13 projects worth P83.65-billion approved a year ago.

Of the 24 approved projects, 21 were locator projects, while three were developer projects.

Twelve of the locator investments are from existing enterprises with new and expansion projects, while the remaining four are from new businesses.

The three developer-operator projects are information technology centers to be developed in Capas, Tarlac; Bataraza, Palawan; and San Miguel, Tarlac.

By sector, the export sector accounted for the bulk or 14 of the projects that were greenlit last week. Four projects involve facilities enterprise, while three were information technology projects.

The projected direct employment of 4,515 from the projects approved last week is almost seven times the 643 projected employment from the projects approved a year ago.

Despite the lower investments, the value of the projected exports from the projects approved on Dec. 7 is five times higher at $286.9 million than the $56.47 million last year.

“We don’t have economic zone exports by destination. But whatever is reflected in the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) data on commodity exports, around 60% of that comes from PEZA,” Mr. Panga said.

From January to Dec. 7, PEZA has approved a total of 221 projects, 13.9% higher than the 194 projects greenlit during the same period a year ago.

Exports from the 221 projects are expected to reach $3.71 billion, nearly double the $1.98-billion projected exports from the 194 projects approved in the same period last year.

Last month, Mr. Panga said that PEZA is still expecting the entry of more investments that have a combined worth of over P50 billion.

If realized, this will bring back PEZA investments to the P200-billion to P250-billion level or the 2012 and 2015 peak years of its investment approvals.

Marcos extends lower tariffs on rice, pork

Rice grains are displayed with a farmer miniature in this illustration picture taken on June 20, 2023. — REUTERS

THE NATIONAL Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board, chaired by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., has approved another one-year extension of the lower tariff rates on rice, pork, and corn as the country continues to battle inflation.

NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan on Thursday said the NEDA Board approved the proposed executive order (EO) to extend the reduced most favored nation tariff rates on several commodities, including rice, pork, and corn until Dec. 31, 2024.

A copy of the new EO, which will be signed by Mr. Marcos, has yet to be released as of press time.

Originally approved in 2021 by then-President Rodrigo R. Duterte, the modified rates for these commodities have been extended twice. The current order, EO 10, is set to expire on Dec. 31, 2023.

“The proposed extension of reduced tariffs will help ensure an adequate supply of agricultural commodities and maintain stable and affordable prices, thereby better managing potential inflationary pressures,” Mr. Balisacan said during a Palace briefing.

Once signed, the EO will maintain tariff rates for imports of swine meat or pork at 15% for shipments within the minimum access volume (MAV) quota and 25% for those exceeding the quota.

The tariff rates for corn will be kept at 5% (within the MAV quota) and 15% (exceeding the MAV quota).

Tariff rates for imports of rice will remain at 35% for both in-quota and out-quota.

“The tariffs while reduced are still high so it doesn’t really reduce the protection on our farmers,” the NEDA chief said.

Mr. Balisacan said the lower tariff rates on pork, corn, and rice will be reviewed every six months.

Inflation averaged 6.2% in the January-to-November period amid rising prices of food and fuel. The BSP expects inflation to average 6% this year and 3.7% in 2024.

Rice prices have been volatile this year. In September, rice inflation surged to 17.9%, the highest print since March 2009, prompting the government to impose a price ceiling for one month.

“We will also be able to encourage alternative supply to diversify the country’s market sources and establish a forward-looking trade policy that will allow effective and timely response for possible supply and price shocks brought about by major challenges such as the worsening African Swine Fever, anticipated impact of the El Nio phenomenon and continuous increases in commodity prices in the world market,” Mr. Balisacan said.

He said the NEDA Board also approved the Committee on Tariff and Related Matters’ recommendation to review the tariff rate on coal on an annual basis, instead of every six months.

EO 10 had stated that the zero duty on coal would be applied beyond Dec. 31, 2023.

“Extending reduced tariff will further discourage production which goes against the promise and objective of President Marcos,” Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc. President Danilo V. Fausto said in a Viber message.

The Federation of Free Farmers opposed the extension of the reduced tariffs, saying Mr. Marcos had been poorly advised. 

“With respect to rice, (Mr. Marcos) was given the wrong information and advice,” FFF National Director Raul Q. Monetamayor said in a Viber message.

Leonardo A. Lanzona, who teaches economics at the Ateneo de Manila University, said lowering tariffs are ideal in general since it provides greater quantities and variety of goods to consumers.

“The main problem however are the negative impacts on producers of pork, corn, and rice,” he said via Messenger chat. “The government should have a countervailing program for producers to mitigate these negative effects.”

Mr. Lanzona said reducing tariffs for coal will be “disastrous”  due to its negative impact on the environment. He urged the government to raise the tariff rates for coal and to look for other sources of energy.

MORE PROJECTS
At the same briefing, Mr. Balisacan said the NEDA Board also approved the Department of Public Works and Highways’ construction of a 23-kilometer, four-lane alternative route to bypass the existing Dalton Pass in Central Luzon.

“With a cost of P67.4 billion and an expected completion by 2031, the project will facilitate the seamless transport of people in the delivery of essential goods and services within the region,” he said.

The NEDA Board also approved the second phase of the DPWH’s masterplan, which aims to provide “high standard highway network.”  The masterplan had identified 53 projects that will be implemented in the short term or will be completed by 2030.

Mr. Balisacan said the NEDA Board has also approved the Health department’s eight-point action agenda or medium-term strategy for the health sector from 2023 to 2028. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

PHL growth likely to moderate next year

Shoppers flock to Divisoria in Manila, Nov. 21, 2023. — PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

PHILIPPINE economic growth is expected to moderate in the coming months amid weakening consumption and gross capital formation, ING Bank N.V. Manila said.

In an article on its website dated Dec. 13, ING said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth to settle at 5.3% this year and further ease to 4.5% by 2024.

“Philippine GDP growth surprised on the upside in the third quarter and has, for the most part, outperformed our expectations. Despite this, we believe challenges to the outlook remain with household spending appearing stretched and fiscal spending possibly reaching its limits,” ING Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said.

The economy grew by 5.9% in the third quarter, bringing the nine-month average to 5.5%. This is still below the government’s 6-7% target range this year.

For 2024, the government is targeting 6.5-8% growth.

Mr. Mapa said that GDP growth may not be robust and could moderate next year as private consumption, which accounts for about three-fourths of GDP, is growing at a slower pace.

“We had initially expected spending on basic food items to recover as inflation moderated by mid-2023. However, spending on these items has remained flat. This trend could be explained by the unexpectedly strong household spending at restaurants, with households substituting having meals at home for dining out,” ING said.

Household consumption grew by 5% in the third quarter, the weakest pace in two years. This was also slower than 8% a year ago and 5.5% in the previous quarter.   

Mr. Mapa also said that slower wage growth may mean consumers will cut back on spending.

“With wage adjustments carried out generally once a year, a sharp increase in wages is not likely to take place until mid-2024 at the earliest. The outlook for only modest wage growth suggests that household spending is not likely to rebound sharply next year even if inflation remains within target,” he said.

Gross capital formation, or the investment component of the economy, will likely continue to decline.

“We will likely need to see a sharp rebound in imports of both capital machinery and raw materials before we can expect a recovery for capital formation and given the restrictive monetary policy stance, we could see capital formation staying in the red for at least the first half of next year,” Mr. Mapa said.

Gross capital formation slipped by 1.6% in the third quarter, ending nine straight quarters of growth. This was also a reversal of the 18.2% expansion a year ago and 0.3% in the second quarter.

The boost in government expenditure during the third quarter may be difficult to sustain.

“As noted earlier, government spending was one of the drivers of third-quarter GDP. However, we remain skeptical that it will be a reliable source of growth to power momentum in the coming quarters. The main reason for this is the limited space for fiscal authorities to increase spending due to elevated debt levels,” Mr. Mapa added.

Government spending rose by 6.7% in the July-September period, a turnaround from the 7.1% contraction in the second quarter. Government agencies were ordered to draft catch-up plans for spending amid low budget utilization in the first half.

Mr. Mapa emphasized that ramping up government spending will be key to strong growth in 2024.

“The wild card for growth next year, however, will be government spending, which is expected to be capped by elevated debt levels. We believe that GDP growth can outperform our initial base case scenario but only if government spending is able to expand by double digits for all of 2024,” he added.

Net exports growth is also unlikely to continue.

“Net exports, which have positively contributed to growth for two straight quarters, are likely to revert to a negative contribution to GDP as early as the fourth quarter. With exports likely to struggle next year, we expect the overall trade deficit to remain substantial enough to keep the current account balance in deficit territory and ultimately weigh on overall GDP growth momentum for next year,” Mr. Mapa said.

“We could see upside to this outlook should inflation slow sharply, which could free up some purchasing power for households while an eventual easing of monetary policy by the second half of 2024 should help bolster investment activity,” he added.

INFLATION
Meanwhile, ING expects Philippine inflation to average 4.1% next year. This is still above the central bank’s 2-4% target and its 3.7% baseline forecast.

“We forecast inflation to average 4.1% year on year next year with much of the price pressures driven by supply-side factors such as drought, imported energy price adjustments and a shortage of fish,” Mr. Mapa said.

He said demand-side pressures will be “relatively muted” as consumption is expected to moderate and government spending “will be unable to ramp up spending in a manner that could be inflationary.”

The BSP will also likely continue its tightening path next year, ING said.

“Despite price pressures emanating mainly from the supply side, we believe (BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr.) will not hesitate to hike rates should inflation indeed flare up next year,” Mr. Mapa said.

The BSP on Thursday kept rates steady at a 16-year high 6.5% for a second straight meeting. From May 2022 to October, the central bank raised borrowing costs by a total of 450 basis points (bps).

Rate cuts are also more likely off the table for next year, ING said. “Thus, we expect the BSP to tighten monetary policy for most of 2024 with only a slim chance for a rate cut towards the end of the year should inflation cool and if global central banks begin to cut rates by midyear,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson