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Indian coffee exports set to surge thanks to global price rally

REUTERS

MUMBAI — India’s coffee exports are likely to rise as much as 10% in 2024 as a rally in global prices prompts European buyers to pay premiums in order to increase purchases from the country, industry officials told Reuters.

The South Asian country — famous as a tea producer — is also the world’s eighth-largest coffee grower, mainly churning out the robusta beans used to make instant coffee. It also produces some of the more expensive arabica variety.

“The demand for Indian coffee, particularly robusta beans, is strong due to firm global prices resulting from production issues,” said Ramesh Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters’ Association of India, predicting a rise in exports this year of up to 10%.

Robusta coffee is trading near its highest in at least 15 years as Vietnam, the world’s biggest producer, is expected to produce less in 2023/24 than the previous season.

India exports three quarters of its production mainly to Italy, Germany and Belgium. Indian coffee typically commands a premium over the global benchmark because it is grown under shade, hand-picked, and sun-dried.

However, this year, premiums are higher than normal due to a production shortfall, exporters said. Coffee exports in 2024 could jump to 298,000 metric tons from last year’s 271,420 tons, said a Bengaluru-based dealer with a global trade house.

Indian robusta cherry is fetching a premium of nearly $300 a ton over London futures because of strong demand, he said.

While export demand is good, traders are waiting for supplies to increase, which could bring down local prices, the dealer said.

This season’s robusta harvest is almost 20% complete, although rainfall in recent days in growing areas has been disruptive, said M. M. Chengappa, a coffee grower from Kodagu, in top producing Karnataka state.

The state-run Coffee Board has estimated that India’s production could rise to 374,200 tons in the 2023/24 season, which started on Oct. 1, up from last year’s 352,000 tons.

However, farmers are saying that rainfall is limiting the upside in production. “Torrential unseasonal rain in the last few days, along with the rains in December, has caused a lot of fruit droppings,” said Mr. Chengappa.

Harvesting is also slowed by labor scarcity, despite offers of higher wages, said exporter Mr. Rajah. “Global prices are rising, but Indian farmers’ income is not rising in the same proportion due to higher production costs. They need to spend more on inputs and wages,” Mr. Rajah said. — Reuters

Urgent action on noncommunicable diseases

OLGA KONONENKO-UNSPLASH

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are collectively responsible for 41 million deaths globally. Per the World Health Organization (WHO), this accounts for 74% of all deaths worldwide.

The WHO added that more than three-quarters of all NCD deaths, and 86% of the 17 million people who died prematurely, or before reaching 70 years of age, occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

NCDs are also referred to as chronic diseases as they tend to be of long duration and the result of a combination of genetic, physiological, environmental, and behavioral factors, explained the WHO. Furthermore, NCDs also share five major risk factors: tobacco use, physical inactivity, the harmful use of alcohol, unhealthy diets, and air pollution.

Cardiovascular diseases, such as heart attacks and stroke, account for most NCD deaths, approximating 17.9 million people annually. This is followed by cancers (9.3 million), chronic respiratory diseases (4.1 million), and diabetes (2.0 million including kidney disease deaths caused by diabetes).

NCDs have also become the major cause of disease burden in the Philippines. Moreover, premature deaths due to NCDs are most prevalent in poor communities. In 2019, NCDs accounted for about 70% of the 600,000 deaths nationwide. These are among the key findings of “Primary Health Care for Noncommunicable Diseases in the Philippines,” a study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) released in December 2020.

National data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the top three causes of death in the country from January to July 2023 were NCDs. These are ischemic heart diseases, cancer, and cerebrovascular diseases. Meanwhile, the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the country is 36%, which is much higher than estimated global prevalence rates that range from 9% to 13%, according to a study by Filipino researchers published in the September 2023 issue of The Lancet.

According to the 2020 PIDS study, the Philippine health system is not equipped to combat NCDs, as it is designed to address infectious diseases and maternal and child health. This has led to a fragmented system of health services delivery, which makes the handling of NCDs difficult. The study recommends moving toward a primary healthcare-oriented and integrated health system and addressing specific challenges in health governance, financing, service delivery, and human resources.

The biopharmaceutical industry has a long-standing commitment to bring innovative solutions, bridge the NCDs care gap, and accelerate Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our 2023 report “Action on NCDs: How the innovative pharmaceutical industry helps bridge the care gap” outlines four interconnected fronts that guide the industry’s action on NCDs.

First is innovation, which is investing on the discovery of new medicines and vaccines to prevent and fight disease. Second is availability which refers to promoting policies that drive expanded access to care. Third is empowerment of people living with NCDs, ensuring the design and implementation of policy solutions are co-created with people living with NCDs. The fourth is capacity building which is about working with health systems and their funders to build capacity that can effectively prevent, diagnose, treat, and manage life-long conditions.

The biopharmaceutical industry, being represented by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA), is putting forward policy recommendations to address NCDs.

Foremost in this set of recommendations is fostering an enabling environment for innovation and access to thrive. It involves ensuring policies and regulations are in place to promote innovation, support clinical trials, and improve access to medicines and vaccines.

Also an area for improvement is data generation and analysis of the NCD burden to leave no one behind. This relates to improving data systems and analysis of the NCD burden at global, regional, and national levels to identify and treat all people living with NCDs.

There is likewise a need to put multiple, sustainable financing mechanisms for NCDs in place. This is explained as developing sustainable and integrated financing mechanisms for NCDs within health systems that reflect each country’s needs and capacity. Integrating health awareness and promotion, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and care as well as multi-sectoral collaborations will be important to address NCDs.

There is an urgent need to address the epidemic of NCDs in the Philippines today as they threaten individuals and families. If not abated, they can overwhelm and overburden the country’s health system that is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Teodoro B. Padilla is the executive director of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Association of the Philippines (PHAP).  PHAP represents the biopharmaceutical medicines and vaccines industry in the country. Its members are in the forefront of research and development efforts for COVID-19 and other diseases that affect Filipinos.

Snapshot

PHOTO BY KAP MACEDA AGUILA

That’s popular precision and stunt driver Russ Swift at the wheel of a Subaru Forester on two wheels. This was taken at the Suntec Center in Singapore, a day ahead of last week’s opening of the Singapore Motor Show 2024.

Yields on government debt end higher

YIELDS on government securities (GS) mostly rose last week in a healthy correction from overbought conditions and amid market anticipation for fresh debt issuances and the US Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

GS yields, which move opposite to prices, went up by an average of 4.78 basis points (bps) week on week, according to PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates data as of Jan. 12 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

Rates at the short end of the curve rose across the board. The 91-, 182-, and 364-day Treasury bills (T-bills) climbed by 11.05 bps (to 5.337%), 8.72 bps (5.5956%), and 14.6 bps (5.9734%), respectively.

At the belly, the three-, four-, five-, and seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds) rose by 2.78 bps (to 5.9679%), 4.63 bps (6.0237%), 5.68 bps (6.0756%), and 8.47 bps (6.1662%), respectively. Meanwhile, the two-year bond fell by 0.09 bp to 5.9069%.

Yields at the long end were mixed. The rate of the 10-year debt paper rose by 11.97 bps to 6.2393%, while yields on the 20-, and 25-year T-bonds fell by 7.43 bps (to 6.2464%) and 7.82 bps (6.2495%), respectively. 

Total GS volume traded rose to P16.5 billion on Friday from P15.05 billion the week prior.

“Over the past weeks, we’ve observed a pronounced upward shift in yields, primarily driven by a market correction from previously overbought curve brought by the aggressive yield declines we saw last month,” Lodevico M. Ulpo, Jr., vice-president and head of Fixed Income Strategies at ATRAM Trust Corp., said in an e-mail.

The Fed’s previous indications of rate cuts this year pushed the market to overbought territory, he said.

“The recent auction of the five-year bonds, which was fully awarded at P30 billion and witnessed a robust demand (approximately 2.5 times oversubscribed), significantly influenced [last] week’s rates. The market’s response, especially considering the uncertainties surrounding the US consumer price index (CPI) and continuous new bond series issuance, continued to be firm with sporadic selling to reflect expectations on market pricing in the primary market,” Mr. Ulpo added.

Last week, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised P30 billion as planned from its offer of new five-year bonds as total bids reached P74.329 billion, more than twice as much as the program. 

The bonds were awarded at a coupon rate of 6.125%. Accepted yields ranged from 5.86% to 6.125% for an average rate of 6.073%.

Meanwhile, US consumer prices increased more than expected in December, with Americans paying more for shelter and healthcare, suggesting it was probably too early for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, Reuters reported.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

In the 12 months through December, US CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would gain 0.2% on the month and climb 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.

Inflation averaged 4.1% in 2023, down from 8% in 2022.

Financial markets still see more than a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.5% range since March 2022.

“Yields took their cue largely from global bond market developments with sentiment influenced by expectations on the timing of the Fed rate cuts. There may have been investors sitting on the sidelines ahead of the US inflation report,” ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa added in an e-mail.

For this week, the market will monitor policy statements from newly appointed Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, Mr. Mapa said.

“Looking ahead to [this] week, we anticipate a surge in demand for the seven-year bonds, as investors begin to seek longer durations, aiming to lock in yields in anticipation of the January inflation figures,” Mr. Ulpo added.

“Additionally, the local market’s movements are likely to align closely with global yield trends, which are expected to mirror evolving monetary policy directions and expectations in the forthcoming months. This alignment will play a pivotal role in shaping market positioning and yield dynamics in the short term,” he said.

The BTr will offer P30 billion in fresh seven-year T-bonds on Tuesday. — A.C. Abestano with Reuters

Meralco commits to ERC guidelines for contract termination

MANILA Electric Co. (Meralco) has assured that contracts resulting from bids will adhere to the new rules of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on termination.

“With the new ERC guidelines, it is already stated there that before terminating [contracts], these need to go through the ERC,” Lawrence S. Fernandez, Meralco’s vice-president and head of utility economics, said on the sidelines of a media briefing last week.

“We will comply with that provision,” he added.

Meralco has recently launched the bidding for the procurement of its energy requirements, covering capacities of 1,800 megawatts (MW), 1,200 MW, and 660 MW.

The new bids for the 1,800 MW and 1,200 MW capacities aim to secure new suppliers following the termination of their power supply agreements (PSAs).

Last year, the ERC released guidelines governing the PSAs entered into by distribution utilities.

Under ERC Resolution No. 16, Series of 2023, the commission noted that no party to the PSA should be allowed to terminate the contract within a specified period “unless expressly allowed under these guidelines.”

Among the allowable grounds cited in Section 34 of the resolution is termination with prior approval from the ERC.

Mr. Fernandez, meanwhile, said that the recommendations from the ERC for the terms of reference (ToR) for the bidding covering 1,800 MW were also applied to the ToR for the 1,200-MW bidding. 

“Most of the suggestions of [ERC Chairman Monalisa C. Dimalanta] for the 1,800 [MW] were also applied to the 1,200 [MW] to address the concerns,” he said.

The 1,800 MW bidding is meant to replace the contract for the electricity that were supposed to be supplied by Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. and Masinloc Power Partners Co. Ltd. The two companies are subsidiaries of San Miguel Power Global Holdings Corp., the power arm of San Miguel Corp.

Last year, San Miguel Power Global issued notices of termination of its power supply deals with Meralco, which then were approved by the ERC as the PSA application went beyond the date by which it should have been approved by the regulator.

Meanwhile, Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen), the energy generation arm of Meralco, is optimistic about achieving its target of building 1,500 MW of renewable energy (RE) projects by 2030.

“We have a lot in our pipeline that will meet at least 1,500 [MW],” MGen Chief Operating Officer Dominador M. Camu Jr. told reporters in a recent interview.

“Although they will not be completed by 2024, but the construction and the pipeline is continuing to be filled up. This includes [projects] in RE — solar, we have wind,” Mr. Camu said.

In August last year, MGen said it has allocated P18 billion to put up about two gigawatts of gross RE capacity from solar and wind.

Currently, MGen Renewable Energy, Inc., the renewables arm of MGen, has a portfolio that includes the 55-MW-alternating current (MWac) BulacanSol solar plant in San Miguel, Bulacan in partnership with Powersource Energy Holdings Corp.

This also includes the 68-MWac solar farm in Ilocos Norte of Nuevo Solar Energy Corp., a joint venture between MGreen and Vena Energy.

Meanwhile, Mr. Camu said that the company is applying for environmental clearance to convert its coal-fired power plant project in Atimonan in Quezon province to one that runs on gas, he said.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

Delayed Emmys to spotlight best of television in Succession sendoff

REUTERS/DANNY MOLOSHOK

LOS ANGELES — The Emmy Awards, normally one of Hollywood’s September red-carpet rituals, will take the stage on Monday in a strike-delayed ceremony to honor the best of television.

HBO’s Succession, about the wealthy but miserable Roy family, leads all nominees with 27 nods. It is widely expected to win its third best-drama trophy. Most shows on the list come from streaming services, which grabbed their highest share of nominations ever.

Some of the shows aired as far back as June 2022. Nominations were announced in July 2023, and voting took place a month later.

“If you are predicting Emmy winners, you have to remember what the vibe was like back in August,” said Joyce Eng, senior editor at the Gold Derby awards website.

Organizers postponed the ceremony from its September date because Hollywood writers and actors were out on strike at the time. The labor disputes shut down production and promotion and forced broadcast TV networks to fill their fall schedules with re-runs and reality shows.

With the strikes over, the Emmys will give Hollywood a chance to spotlight TV and streaming series such as best comedy nominee Abbott Elementary, which returns to Walt Disney’s ABC with new episodes next month.

Abbott Elementary, which runs on a broadcast network, is an outlier. Nearly two-thirds of shows nominated streamed on platforms such as Netflix and Apple TV+, data from Nielsen’s Gracenote found. That is the highest proportion for streaming services ever.

Previously, Emmy wins would provide bragging rights to help build audiences for a cable or broadcast show. For streamers, “winning the Emmy is more about branding and increasing their subscriber counts,” media consultant Brad Adgate said.

Comedian and Black-ish actor Anthony Anderson will host the Emmys gala, which will be broadcast live from downtown Los Angeles on the Fox TV network.

SUCCESSION SWEEP?
This year’s Emmys telecast could feel like a re-run of last Sunday’s Golden Globes, which showered Succession with four awards.

The show wrapped up its fourth and final season last May, settling the question of who would take over the Roy family’s global media empire. Fifteen experts polled by the Gold Derby website were unanimous in picking Succession to win the drama trophy again.

Some awards watchers said Succession also could sweep the four drama acting categories.

Three Succession actors — Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong — are competing against each other for best actor. That could pave the way for an upset by Pedro Pascal, star of dystopian video-game adaptation The Last of Us, said Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis.

“He could benefit from a Succession vote split.”

Mr. Pascal, who is Chilean-American, would be the first Latino actor to win best actor in a drama.

In comedy contests, two-time series winner Ted Lasso, about the American coach of a plucky British football team, leads the pack again.

While the third season of the Apple TV+ show divided fans, “clearly Emmy voters still love it,” Ms. Eng said, noting the show received 21 nominations, its most ever.

Mr. Lasso could be beaten, some prognosticators said, by Golden Globe winner The Bear, the story of a haute cuisine chef trying to turn around his family’s Chicago sandwich shop. Amazon Freevee’s Jury Duty, about a real person who unwittingly takes part in a fake trial, also is in the mix.

Beef, Netflix’s road rage drama that claimed three Globes, is the favorite to win best limited series.

Winners will be chosen by the roughly 20,000 performers, directors, producers, and other members of the Television Academy.

While the night could be a party for Succession, Mr. Davis cautioned that such a large group can make for unpredictable results.

“Anything can happen, and sometimes anarchy ensues, and we just get a crazy night,” he said. — Reuters

How powerful is the Philippine passport?

In the 2024 Henley Passport Index showed the Philippine Passport ranking 73rd out of 199 passports, offering visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 69 destinations, out of 227 possible travel destinations. This was two places up from 2023’s ranking of 75th. The Henley Passport Index is an authoritative ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa. The Philippine passport’s ranking ties with Cape Verde Islands and Uganda.

 

How powerful is the Philippine passport?

FSSI supports social entrepreneurs to grow local communities

FSSI joined the inauguration of K5 MPC’s Peaks and Waves Bed and Breakfast at Dingalan, Aurora. In photo from left are FSSI Knowledge Management, Advocacy, and Communications Officer Nikki Natan; Financial Services Manager Leah Embuido; Credit Officer Mark Tañedo; and K5 MPC Board Directors Evelyn Roxas, Sherlyn Alcantara, and Ma. Loida Dela Cruz.

Social investment nonprofit organization Foundation for a Sustainable Society, Inc. (FSSI) continues to scale up social entrepreneurship by offering financial and non-financial products to Filipino enterprises, promoting inclusive socioeconomic growth and environmental sustainability.

The British Council, supported by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, reported that social enterprises in the country have struggled to balance their environmental and financial goals to achieve business stability and effectively measure their overall impact.

FSSI addresses this challenge through its triple bottom line (3BL) approach, which measures people, planet, and profit as the main indicators. Through this approach, FSSI has benefited over 280 local social enterprises, resulting in deeper support to the communities they belong to, more paths to sustainability, and more profitable businesses — all at the same time.

“Social enterprises aim to create social and environmental impact, while maintaining a viable business at the same time,” said Sixto Donato C. Macasaet, executive director at FSSI. “In order to achieve their goals, we and our partners from national civil society organizations and international organizations help them address their challenges through our needs-based services that include loans, developmental deposits, seed capital, and equity investment.”

Boosting socioeconomic impact

Women-led enterprise Mallig FST Multi-Purpose Cooperative is engaged in lending, savings deposits, agricultural inputs trading and mechanization services, and rice milling.

In 2022, the cooperative expanded and opened a gas station in Mallig, Isabela to create jobs for its immediate community. The cooperative also started the construction of a multi-purpose building which will be used as the cooperative’s office, convenience store, agricultural trading store for bulk purchase of agricultural supplies, and other stalls for rent.

Through FSSI’s Investing in Women project, it is able to augment its working capital for agricultural inputs trading and, thus, offers agricultural inputs to farmer members at a lower price. It also gives them technical advice for better yield per cropping.

“We are now able to establish a one-stop shop that will cater to the various needs of farmer members and non-members alike in Mallig,” said Marilyn Binag, manager of the cooperative.

She added that this will also be an opportunity for the cooperative to grow beyond its 642 members — 234 of whom are women — by helping them realize their potential economic contributions through helping more communities even outside of Isabela.

Empowering local communities

Nueva Ecija-based women-led social enterprise Kilusang Lima para sa Lahat Multi-Purpose Cooperative (K5 MPC) already began partnering with FSSI through a loan program in 2006 to sustain its financial support to its members who are farmers and owners of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

“Our members’ need for capital for various purposes outweighs the share capital contributed by investing members,” said Guillermo Bacsa, general manager at K5 MPC.

Guided by the 3BL approach, in 2006, FSSI offered K5 MPC a credit line to support their members and to empower the communities they serve and contribute to local economic development.

In 2022, K5 MPC worked with FSSI, under a renewed partnership, to expand its services to nearby province, Aurora, and launched its first lodging business, “Peaks and Waves Bed and Breakfast.” FSSI supported the construction of the lodging house which now contributes to the local economy of the town of Dingalan through tourism, employment generation, and environmental protection by segregating, composting, and recycling wastes, and reusing containers to reduce plastic usage.

“Our members’ trust is a vital part of community development,” Mr. Bacsa said. “By empowering them and providing them solutions that fit their needs, our capital grew from P60,000 to P40 million to date.”

FSSI offers customizable services that empower social enterprises to ensure they thrive in their respective sector and foster holistic community development. To discover more about how FSSI supports local social enterprises, visit fssi.com.ph or go to their Facebook page at www.facebook.com/FSSI.Philippines.

How PSEi member stocks performed — January 12, 2024

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, January 12, 2024.


Peso to stay rangebound

BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO is expected to trade sideways against the dollar this week following the surprise uptick in US consumer inflation in December. 

The local currency closed at P55.911 versus the dollar on Friday, appreciating by 3.9 centavos from Thursday’s P55.95 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

Week on week, however, the peso weakened by 21.1 centavos from its P55.70 close on Jan. 5.

The peso was better supported against the dollar following the faster-than-expected rise in US inflation, Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a Viber message.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said, Reuters reported.

In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would gain 0.2% on the month and climb 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.

Inflation averaged 4.1% in 2023, down from 8% in 2022.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said core inflation in the US, which eased to 3.9% year on year from 4% in November, could still justify Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year.

Market players are still pricing in rate cuts of more than 150 basis points this year, he said.

The peso appreciated on Friday after President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. announced a new Finance chief, Mr. Ricafort added.

Former lawmaker Ralph G. Recto took his oath as Department of Finance secretary on Friday. He replaced Benjamin E. Diokno, who was sworn in as a member of the central bank’s Monetary Board.

Mr. Recto was previously a member of the country’s economic team as chief of the National Economic and Development Authority in 2008.

For this week, Mr. Roces said the peso could remain “range-bound” before US data on retail sales and the release of the Fed Beige Book, which a report on economic conditions in the US.

Market players will also look at the latest remittances and overall balance of payments data to be released by the Philippine central bank this week, Mr. Ricafort added.

He expects the local unit to move from P55.60 to P56.10 per dollar this week. — Keisha B. Ta-asan with Reuters

Stocks may hold on to gains as mart awaits leads

BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE SHARES are expected sustain their upward trend this week, but the lack of strong catalysts could prevent the market from rising further, analysts said.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) improved by 29.45 points or 0.44% to end at 6,643.18 on Friday, while the broader all shares index rose by 10.85 points or 0.31% to close at 3,506.61. 

Week on week, the PSEi climbed by 13.54 points or 0.2% from its 6,629.64 close on Jan. 5.

“The local bourse held on to slight gains while waiting for stronger catalysts to reinforce the market’s upward momentum,” online brokerage firm 2TradeAsia.com said in a market report.

“The PSEi gained for the second straight week of the new year, higher for the fourth week in five weeks, somewhat catching up with the much larger gains posted by the US and other global stock markets since 2023,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Philippine shares could continue to rise this week, Mr. Ricafort said.

“The upward trend in the PSEi could continue after rising for almost all days from the start of 2024… amid the recent gains in the US stock markets to among two-year highs and near record highs,” he said.

On Friday, Wall Street stocks closed nearly flat after moving between modest gains and losses during the session, Reuters reported. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.04 points or 0.31% to 37,592.98. The S&P 500 gained 3.59 points or 0.08% at 4,783.83; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.58 points or 0.02% to 14,972.76.

The US market will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday.

“Investors are expected to watch out for positive catalysts. Without such, sustaining the market’s climb [this] week could be difficult. Meanwhile, the dampened Federal Reserve rate cut hopes following the US’ December 2023 inflation print and worries over the tensions in the Middle East may weigh on sentiment,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message that the market’s movement will be “data dependent,” with the PSEi expected to consolidate at the 6,600 level.

“Some key economic events this week will be China’s gross domestic product, US consumer sentiment, and retail sales [data],” Mr. Limlingan said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ricafort put the PSEi’s immediate minor support at 6,390-6,500 and immediate major support at 6,210-6,300, while Mr. Tantiangco placed its major support at 6,400 and major resistance at 6,700.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com put the PSEi’s support at 6,550 and resistance at 6,700-6,800.

“[The] PSEi is building a clearer technical runway towards 6,800… In the short term, improving macroeconomic factors plus confirmation of earnings should lubricate the ascent and provide opportunities to day range trade,” the online brokerage said. — R.M.D. Ochave

Economic reforms via ‘Cha-cha’ may be futile without political changes

THE INAUGURAL session of the Constitutional Commission of 1986 — OFFICIALGAZETTE.GOV.PH

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

POLITICAL analysts on Sunday urged lawmakers to also push political reforms aside from easing economic restrictions in the 1987 Constitution, saying economic changes would not be effective without fixing the country’s weak political structure.

“If we open up the economy, we should also strengthen our agencies that will be responsible for ensuring that a more open economy will really redound to the benefit of the people,” Edmund Tayao, who teaches at the San Beda Graduate School of Law, said by telephone.

Congress should also strengthen domestic institutions and make the country’s Charter responsive to emerging threats, he said.

“Our political institutions do not have accountability,” Mr. Tayao said. “Anyone who has money to burn can just come to the Philippines, finding it easy to start a business here whether it’s absolutely legitimate or not. Economic reforms should include political reforms.”

In December, Speaker Martin G. Romualdez said lawmakers would focus on the “very prohibitive” economic provisions of the Constitution as part of constitutional reforms this year, a year before the midterm elections.

It would be difficult to get a consensus on economic reforms, much less implement them, if the government failed to ensure that Philippine political institutions are responsive to the needs of the people, Randy P. Tuaño, dean of the Ateneo de Manila University School of Government, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“It would be good if we have economic reforms,” he said, “Our governance institutions should be responsive to any programs that would allow these sectors to bounce back.”

He cited the late President Fidel V. Ramos’ Philippines 2000 program for economic liberalization, which he said was accompanied by social and political reforms.

“This is the only Constitution compared with many constitutions around the world where the key provisions always end with ‘as may be provided by law,’” Mr. Tayao said. “Compared with the many Constitutions around the world, we probably have the most perfect set of social justice provisions, but these cannot be implemented in the absence of enabling laws.”

For example, the 1987 Charter provides for the ban of political dynasties and labor-only contracting, but these need legislation.

Charter change (“Cha-cha”) has gained public attention after the airing last week of a TV commercial demonizing the legacies of a People Power uprising that toppled the regime of the late dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos.

The pro-Cha-cha ad was aired amid reports of “vote buying” for a people’s initiative to change the Constitution, which lawmakers including presidential sister Senator Maria Imelda “Imee” R. Marcos want to probe.

Mr. Tayao said Cha-cha campaigns should be inclusive and should accept everyone, regardless of political persuasion.

Human rights group Karapatan said the “people’s initiative” was pursued after “Cha-cha” attempts last year via the usual avenues of constitutional convention or constitutional assembly failed.

The “people’s initiative,” which has been tagged as “politicians’ initiative,” is seen as a shortcut to Charter change, with people in poor communities being asked to sign blank sheets of paper in exchange for money,” it said in a statement.

“Such accounts strongly remind us of how the 1973 Philippine Constitution was supposedly ratified via ‘viva voce’ just months into the declaration of Marcos Sr.’s martial rule through hastily called barangay assemblies,” it added.

Terry L. Ridon, a former lawmaker and convenor of think tank InfraWatch PH, urged Congress to start proceedings on its proposal to reform the economic provisions of the charter to allow a full discussion.

“It should invite all interested parties to present their positions on whether economic amendments to the Charter should proceed,” he said. “It should distance itself from other initiatives that seem to spoil the focus on purely economic amendments, such as groups that funded the controversial TV ad.”

Mr. Romualdez last month said they seek to amend the Charter through a people’s initiative, allowing the public to decide whether the Senate and House should vote separately or as one.

There had been attempts to revise the Constitution and shift to a federal type of government under ex-President Rodrigo R. Duterte, during whose term Congress passed changes to 85-year-old Public Service Act to allow full foreign ownership in domestic shipping, telecommunications, shipping, railways and subways, airlines, expressways and tollways, and airports.

In 2021, Congress approved the Singapore-inspired Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act, which cut the corporate income tax on domestic and foreign corporations to 25% from 30%.

Mr. Tayao said the Constitution should respond to economic and security threats.

“When the Constitution was drafted in 1987, we were responding to one single issue, which was the dictatorship,” he said. “There was no comprehensive view. Now, we are still struggling with labor-only contracting, which the Constitution should have already corrected.”

“The Constitution also supposedly has very meaningful provisions as far as indigenous people and local governments are concerned, but again, the same problems with decentralization and indigenous people remain,” he added.

“The political provisions are the ones that are really problematic.”

The Charter should also be attuned to emerging geopolitical threats, he said, citing tensions with China. “As far as the national territory is concerned, it requires a reformulation or rewording so we can improve our strategies, whether it’s on the West Philippine Sea issue or something else,” he said.