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Security Bank to hold stockholders’ meeting via remote communication on May 7

 


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DALI targets to expand presence in Luzon with 950 stores by yearend

DALI EVERYDAY GROCERY FACEBOOK PAGE

LOCAL discount grocery chain DALI has announced plans to expand its presence in Luzon, aiming to have up to 950 stores by the end of the year.

“We’re only going to stay in Luzon for now…, (and) we’re probably going to hit about 900 (to) 950 stores by the end of this year,” Anja Grote Westrick, director of strategic supply chain and ESG officer at DALI operator Hard Discount Philippines, Inc., told reporters on Tuesday.

 Dali is a discount grocery chain that currently has over 250 branches in the Philippines, providing competitive pricing in local neighborhoods.

 “The whole discount principle is you have a limited assortment, but the products that you have in your assortment are selling at high volume,” Ms. Westrick said.

 DALI also targets to open in June its sixth distribution center in Naic, Cavite, a town about 50 kilometers south of Manila.

 “On every store, there’s a certain limit in terms of sales, so you need to expand in terms of stores as much as possible so that you generate volume,” Ms. Westrick said.

 “When you go out to the countryside, it’s not that much… so there, people are more used to taking a tricycle to the store. And there, you can spread out the stores a little bit more,” she added.

 When asked about the provinces where the new DALI branches will be set up this year, Ms. Westrick said that they would be established “everywhere where we are now… it’s just picking the spots in between.”

The majority (around 60-70%) of DALI’s products are locally manufactured, while several others are imported from Malaysia, China, and Europe.

In March, Singapore-based growth equity firm Venturi Partners announced a $25-million investment for the expansion of DALI.

This marked the company’s second investment in the Philippines, following its investment in the grab-and-go coffee chain Pickup Coffee the previous year. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

Philippine Energy Plan won’t ensure security

The Philippine Electric Power Industry Forum (PEPIF) 2024 with the theme “Powering a sustainable and secure energy future for the country” held at the Iloilo Convention Center on April 5 was a great success. Audience-packed, information-loaded and networking-rich, it was sponsored by the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP). Congratulations, IEMOP.

The opening remarks were given by Iloilo City Mayor Jerry Treñas. It was a warm, friendly and challenging message. Warm because he thanked the participants from Metro Manila and other provinces for flying to Iloilo and spending their money there. Challenging because he narrated the huge inconvenience of power blackouts the city and the entire province of Panay and four other provinces suffered in early January and early March, and the need for big power supply given the huge demand from many existing and potential investors and consumers in the province and island.

Energy Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla could not come but he gave an inspirational keynote message explaining the need for energy security to help attain economic security. His message was delivered and read by Energy Undersecretary Rowena Guevara. The overall roadmap as contained in the Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) until 2050 and National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) was ably presented by Energy Assistant Secretary Mylene Capongcol.

Other information-packed presentations came from the Energy Regulatory Commission, National Grid Corp. of the Philippines, National Transmission Corp., National Electrification Administration, private players Aboitiz Renewables, Inc. and MORE Power in Iloilo City.

In this column last Tuesday, I made an estimate and forecast of how much new power generation the Philippines should have given the high GDP growth targets set by the economic team — 6-7% for 2024, 6.5-7.5% for 2025 and 6.5-8% for 2026-2028 and avoid blackout.

This piece will attempt to quantify the projected power generation from 2023-2028 given the new committed projects and compare it with the projected needs of the country over the same period.

From a total installed capacity of 28,258 megawatts (MW) in 2022, about 3,193 MW are expected to become operational this year and 2,624 MW next year, for a total of 9,968 MW from 2023-2028 (Table 1).

As mentioned in my previous article, not all megawatts are the same. Conventional thermal power plants have higher energy density, reliability and capacity factor (CF) per MW than conventional renewables such as hydro and geothermal energy, and intermittent renewables such as solar, wind and biomass.

Since not all new power plants committed for the year will start operating in January — some may not start until the fourth quarter — I adjusted the CF to 95% of the actual CF 2017-2022 as measured by IEMOP. My computation of additional generation in gigawatt-hours (GWh) is derived using this formula: (CF 2023-2028) x (committed projects) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year). My results show an additional 12,263 GWh or 12.26 terawatt-hours (TWh) this year and 10 TWh in 2028 (Table 2).

To get the total projected generation per year, I derived with this formula — (actual generation 2022) + (projected generation 2023), and so on. My results show total generation rising from 112.52 TWh in 2022 to 123.54 TWh this year to 154.79 TWh in 2028.

Then I compared this projected generation based on committed projects versus projected generation based on GDP growth targets for 2024-2028. My results show a surplus this year, but power deficits of 8.9 TWh in 2027 and 7.4 TWh in 2028 (Table 3).

Other researchers can replicate this exercise using different assumptions like capacity factor for 2023-2028, possible delays or advance in operation of new power plants, and they may come up with different numbers.

My results imply that adding more intermittent RE with low CF like solar with 3,378 MW and wind with 1,234 MW from 2023-2028 can imperil the country’s growth targets with a power deficit and hence, potential blackouts. Investors and consumers will cringe at the idea of having blackouts again just two to four years from now.

So the Philippine Energy Plan can’t ensure energy security. The proposed PEP will not assure energy security for the Philippines.

As a developing country aspiring to industrialize and raise per capita income and create more jobs, our energy policy should be high growth-targeting, not high renewables-targeting. Junking the anti-coal policy of 2017 and anti-nuclear sentiment will be a good start toward this policy shift.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

48 Hours: A foodie’s guide to Montreal with Top Chef’s Gail Simmons

NEW YORK — As a cookbook author and judge on Bravo’s hit television show Top Chef, Gail Simmons gets to sample cuisines from around the globe.

But when it comes to selecting a favorite city for eating – as well as business travel — the Canadian-born Ms. Simmons is all-in on Montreal.

Ms. Simmons, who lives in Brooklyn, New York, takes us on a foodie’s tour of the famed French-Canadian city.

The following interview is edited and condensed.

WHAT I LOVE MOST
I grew up in Toronto, but I went to college in Montreal and my mother’s whole family lives there. My husband is also from Montreal, so it really is like a second home to me.

Culturally, Montreal is very different than the rest of Canada — it a French city in a French province. It is architecturally very European.

WHERE I GO FIRST
If I land in the morning, my first stop is Arthurs Nosh Bar (Rue Notre Dame West), a Jewish deli.

The deli culture in Montreal is the greatest, and it’s markedly different than US deli culture. The bagels are different. The smoked meat is different.

While there are many good examples of classic delis — including Schwartz’s, Lester’s, or Wilensky — that have not changed in 100 years, Arthurs honors that deli culture but it is modern.

WHERE TO STAY
I stay with family, but my recommendation is Hotel William Gray (Rue Saint Vincent). It’s a lovely boutique hotel in Old Montreal, right on the St. Lawrence River.

The Four Seasons (Rue de la Montagne), which opened in 2019, is beautiful. Chef Marcus Samuelsson has a great restaurant called Marcus there, too.

My parents were married at the historical Ritz Carlton (Sherbrooke St. West), which is the most classic Montreal, high-brow hotel.

BEST FOOD MARKET
I bring every chef and friend to the Jean-Talon Market in Little Italy. It is spectacular, especially in the summer months. On the perimeter, you’ll find permanent stores, including an amazing wine shop and butcher along with an extraordinary store, Marche Des Saveurs Du Quebec, that just has very Canadian local food products.

The Atwater Market, which is closer to Old Montreal, is smaller and a little more precious. It’s near the Rue Notre Dame, which has so many wonderful restaurants — including very famous establishments like Joe Beef and Liverpool House — along with some of the greatest vintage furniture stores anywhere.

COFFEE SPOT
My morning coffee stop is Crew Collective & Cafe (Rue Saint-Jacques) in the lobby of a converted bank building. It’s an enormous, architecturally important space, and they make a great coffee.

POWER LUNCH
My uncle was a judge on the Supreme Court of Quebec, and he would take me to L’Express (Rue St-Denis) for lunch. It’s a famous French bistro with all of the classics, and it still can compete with anything in Paris.

Monarque (Rue St-Jacques) is another great lunch spot which offers beautiful French cuisine with a twist.

BEST BAGELS
There is a New York bagel, and there is a Montreal bagel. People love to compare them but you cannot.

A Montreal bagel is boiled first in honeyed water, so it has a slight sweetness. There’s no salt in the dough, and they are baked in a wood-burning oven. They only come in a few flavors. The classic flavor is sesame.

The two main bagel producers are St-Viateur (various locations) and Fairmount (Fairmount West Ave.)

Eat one super hot and freeze the rest. Don’t leave them out because they will go stale. We hoard them.

FAVORITE POUTINE
Poutine (a gooey confection of French fries with cheese curds and gravy) is meant to be eaten drunk, or with a hangover. So don’t get it at a fancy restaurant.

The best place to buy bags of cheese curds for poutine is the checkout counter of a convenience store, known as depanneurs.

SWEET TREATS
Like France, Montreal has a huge bread and pastry culture, with so many incredible pastry chefs.

La Bete a Pain (various locations) is amazing.

Patisserie Kouign Amann (Mont-Royal East) makes its namesake layered, laminated dough pastry that is the best I’ve ever had.

DINNER SPLURGE
Montreal Plaza (Rue St-Hubert) is a French bistro. Vin Papillon (Rue Notre Dame West), owned by the people who own Joe Beef and Liverpool House, has magnificent vegetables, great food, and an incredible wine list.

Vin Mon Lapin (Rue Prince), which means “My rabbit,” was recently rated the No. 1 restaurant in Canada. It’s not fussy or fancy, but the food is delicious.

For something a little more refined and upscale, try Le Serpent (Rue Saint-Zotique East) or Bouillon Bilk (St. Laurent Blvd.)

SOMETHING ONLY INSIDERS KNOW
Montreal is the word for “Mount Royal.” There is a skating rink on Beaver Lake at the top of the mountain. On the way up, there are many lookout points with incredible views of the city.

Karnatzels, a traditional kosher dried beef stick, are unique to Montreal. You’ll see them hanging to dry in windows of Jewish delis. You’ll even find them in cocktail bars.

FAVORITE SOUVENIR
Bagels! And maple syrup. — Reuters

Fitch cuts China’s ratings outlook on growth risks

REUTERS

BEIJING — Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to “negative” on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.

The downgrade follows a similar move by Moody’s in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-COVID recovery in the world’s second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.

“Fitch’s outlook revision reflects the more challenging situation in China’s public finance regarding the double whammy of decelerating growth and more debt,” said Gary Ng, Natixis Asia-Pacific senior economist.

“This does not mean that China will default any time soon, but it is possible to see credit polarization in some LGFVs (local government financing vehicles), especially as provincial governments see weaker fiscal health.”

Fitch expects China’s general government deficit — which covers infrastructure and other official fiscal activity outside the headline budget — to rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 5.8% in 2023, the highest since 8.6% in 2020, when Beijing’s strict COVID curbs weighed heavily on the economy.

While it lowered its ratings to negative outlook from “stable,” indicating a downgrade is possible over the medium term, the agency affirmed China’s issuer default rating at “A+.”

S&P, the other major global rating agency, also rates China “A+,” the equivalent of Moody’s “A1.”

Fitch forecast China’s economic growth would slow to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.2% last year, while the International Monetary Fund expects China’s GDP to grow 4.6% this year.

The ratings warning comes despite tentative signs China’s economy is finding its footing.

Factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, following better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators.

Those data points have shored up Beijing’s hopes that it can hit what analysts have described as an ambitious GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024.

“The outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China’s public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,” Fitch said.

“Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective,” it said. “Contingent liability risks may also be rising, as lower nominal growth exacerbates challenges to managing high economy-wide leverage.”

China plans to run a budget deficit of 3% of economic output, down from a revised 3.8% last year. Crucially, it plans to issue one trillion yuan ($138.3 billion) in special ultra-long term Treasury bonds, which are not included in the budget.

The special bond issuance quota for local governments was set at 3.9 trillion yuan, versus 3.8 trillion yuan in 2023.

China’s debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record of 287.8% in 2023, 13.5 percentage points higher than a year earlier, according to a report by the National Institution for Finance and Development in January.

China’s finance ministry said following the announcement it regretted Fitch’s ratings decision, vowing to take steps to prevent and resolve risks from local government debt.

“In the long run, maintaining a moderate deficit size and making good use of valuable debt funds is beneficial for expanding domestic demand, supporting economic growth, and ultimately maintaining good sovereign credit,” the ministry said in a statement.

Moody’s in December slapped a downgrade warning on China’s credit rating, citing costs to bail out local governments and state firms and control its property crisis. — Reuters

Semirara Mining and Power Corp. announces Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on May 6

Notice of Annual Stockholders’ Meeting

Please be notified that the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (the “Corporation”) will be held on May 6, 2024,1 Monday at 10:00 a.m. and will be conducted by remote communication at https://www.semirarampc.com/asm with the following agenda:

Agenda

  1. Call to Order and Proof of Notice of Meeting
  2. Certification of Quorum
  3. Chairman’s Message
  4. Approval of Minutes of Previous Stockholders’ Meeting held on May 2, 2023
  5. Presentation and Approval of President’s Report
  6. Presentation and Approval of Audited Financial Statements for 2023
  7. Ratification of the Acts of the Board of Directors and Management from the Date of the Last Annual Stockholders’ Meeting up to the Date of this Meeting
  8. Election of Directors for 2024-2025
  9. Approval of Appointment of Independent External Auditor
  10. Other Matters
  11. Adjournment

Record Date

Stockholders of record as of March 12, 2024 will be entitled to notice of, and vote at the said annual meeting or any adjournment or postponement thereof.

Registration and Voting

Stockholders may attend the meeting by remote communication by registering at https://www.semirarampc.com/asm beginning April 19 until April 27, 2024. Only stockholders of record as of March 12, 2024 will be entitled to vote at the said meeting.  Stockholders may vote in absentia using the online voting portal at https://www.semirarampc.com/voting, or by appointing the Chairman of the meeting as their proxy.  The voting portal will be accessible beginning April 19, 2024 until 12:00 noon of May 6, 2024.

The following documents are required to be transmitted by email to corporatesecretary@semirarampc.com upon registration:

CERTIFICATED SHARES:
  1. Individual Stockholder
    a. Valid Government-Issued ID or passport
  2. Corporate Stockholder
    a. Secretary’s Certificate designating its attorney-in-fact and proxy
    b. Valid Government-Issued ID or passport of the representative
UNCERTIFICATED OR SCRIPLESS SHARES:
  1. Individual Stockholder
    a. Broker’s Certification stating the stockholder’s name and the number of shares held
    b. Valid Government-Issued ID or passport
  2. Corporate Stockholder
    a. Broker’s Certification stating the stockholder’s name and the number of shares held
    b. Secretary’s Certificate designating its attorney-in-fact and proxy
    c. Valid Government-Issued ID or passport of the representative

The requirements and procedure for electronic voting in absentia and participation by remote communication is set forth in Schedule 4 of the Definitive Information Statement published on the Company’s Website and on PSE Edge.

Stockholder Question

Questions may be sent prior to the meeting at corporatesecretary@semirarampc.com no later than April 27, 2024, which shall be limited to the items in the Agenda.  Some questions may be addressed while others will be replied to via email.

Proxy

Duly accomplished proxy forms must be submitted on or before April 25, 2024 to the Office of the Corporate Secretary at 2nd Floor DMCI Plaza, 2281 Don Chino Roces Avenue, Makati City 1231, Philippines or by email at corporatesecretary@semirarampc.com. Validation of proxies is set on April 29, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.

(Sgd.) JOHN R. SADULLO
Corporate Secretary
For the Board of Directors

1 Should the date of the annual stockholders’ meeting (ASM) be declared a legal holiday, the ASM will be held on the next succeeding business day at 10:00 a.m. pursuant to Section 1, Article I of SMPC’s By-Laws, as amended.

 


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Samsung on track to equip all KFC stores with self-service devices

GLOBAL.KFC.COM

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

SAMSUNG Electronics Philippines Corp. (SEPCO) is likely to reach its target to deploy its Kiosk self-service device in all KFC stores nationwide within this year, an official said.

“Samsung Kiosks have been deployed to more than 50% of KFC stores nationwide. The plan is to complete installations for the remaining branches within 2024,” SEPCO Head of Display Solutions Jasmel Lacosta said in an e-mail.

The fast-food chain KFC currently has 380 stores nationwide.

KFC is the first global brand carrying the self-service Kiosk, Samsung’s Display Solutions Retail Operations Specialist Consumer Electronics Jescille Rubio told BusinessWorld during Samsung’s Business Expo on March 21.

Samsung’s 24-inch all-in-one kiosk solution aims to streamline concession ordering and increase ticket transactions.

The device runs on platforms Tizen OS and Windows IoT that software providers can choose from.

Mr. Lacosta added that the self-ordering device has flexible installation options. Establishments can opt to have it tabletop, wall-mounted, or with a stand.

It has improved productivity and efficiency in KFC branches, he said, as having the devices has led to the reallocation of cashier staff to other tasks.

“They can help to minimize queues and increase order accuracy so as to further elevate customer experiences,” Mr. Lacosta said.

Samsung has also deployed its Kiosks to some healthcare institutions for their patient queueing systems.

Mr. Lacosta added that the company is in talks with 7-Eleven to deploy Kiosks in its branches nationwide.

“We are working with 7-Eleven to provide cost-effective Kiosk solutions, and we are definitely working towards ensuring that more companies are able to benefit from our technology,” he said.

Robinsons Land Corp. to conduct 2024 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8

 


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Metro Retail Stores Group, Inc. to hold 2024 Annual Stockholders’ Meeting on May 3 via remote communication

 


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SEC cautions public against investing in XM, eToro

THE Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned the public against investing in XM and eToro, saying these online investment trading platforms are not authorized to sell or offer securities in the Philippines.

 In an advisory posted on its website, the SEC said that XM operates as an exchange platform where investors could trade foreign exchange, cryptocurrency contract for difference (CFDs), stocks, metals, and other assets.

 The entity’s services consist of over 1,000 trading instruments, 24/7 trading of Crypto CFDs, 1000:1 leverage, and bonuses up to $10,500.

 XM also reportedly offers a feature that allows the public to copy any and all trades of a “popular trader.”

 In a separate advisory, the SEC said that eToro offers a crypto exchange that supports trading in more than 30 cryptocurrencies. as well as an exchange for trading commodities, currencies, and indices. It is also an online brokerage platform with a limited selection of stocks and exchange-traded funds.

 The entity aims to make “trading accessible to anyone, anywhere and reduce the dependency on traditional financial institutions.”

 According to the SEC, both platforms launched promotional campaigns on social media to entice investors, including Filipinos, to engage in trading activities.

 The two platforms allow Filipinos to create user accounts on their platform for the purpose of “investing and trading unregistered investment products,” the commission said.

 The SEC warned that those who act as salesmen, brokers, dealers or agents, representatives, promoters, recruiters, influencers, endorsers, and enablers of XM and eToro could face a maximum fine of P5 million or 21-year imprisonment, or both, under the Securities Regulation Code.

 “In view thereof, the public is hereby advised to exercise caution before investing in these kinds of unregistered online investment platforms and their representatives,” the SEC said.

“In dealing with these unregistered platforms, the commission reiterates its advisory entitled advisory against dealing with non-registered foreign entities, organizations, and corporations,” it added.

In an e-mailed statement, eToro said it is “regulated by financial regulatory authorities in multiple jurisdictions around the world.”

“We take our legal and regulatory obligations very seriously. eToro has no local presence in the Philippines, and we do not actively promote or market our services in the Philippines,” it added.

BusinessWorld also reached out to XM but did not to receive a response by the deadline. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Introductory remarks

FREEPIK

IN A ROOMFUL of strangers, especially those who already know one another by being part of a club, a newcomer’s self-introduction can be limited to mentioning his name, as if to check if he’s in the right place. The outsider is rescued from anonymity by someone who may know him from some distant past and starts to introduce him to others as his former boss.

A host is obliged to introduce guests to one another by providing biographical details. Titles are a handy description — he is vice-president for branch relocation of the 12th largest rural bank in his province. This provides a conversation opener: Are funeral parlors good indicators of a healthy deposit base?

Introductions provide conversational fodder in search of some common interest. They free the host to leave guests to check the carving station for the roasted pig (Hey, who took away the tail?)

If a subject is unemployed or retired, he can be introduced as a relative — he is the second cousin of the host. An obscure employer (what does your organization really do?) can be introduced by its most famous customer — they did the condo fittings for an actor whose marriage plans were canceled due to his unfounded ownership claim of his residence.

Unofficial partners (even of opposite sexes) are not introduced as a couple, identified instead by separate names (Andi and Andy) with some details — he is the father of her eldest child. Without much biographical elaboration, gossipy parties sort out these off-book relationships to guide the clueless on what topics to avoid.

Celebrities like incumbent senators and movie stars need no introduction. When these VIPs cut through the gauntlet of nonentities on the way to the main table, the tricky etiquette rule involves choosing which ones in the anonymous crowd to introduce to them. Some hidden agenda may pop up when the celebrity is making the rounds — didn’t he bump my car before the pandemic?

Celebrities are ushered to the head table through the shortest route, sometimes involving a side door and then left to themselves and their breadbasket. This is a problem for the host as daunting personalities are too often left with no one to talk to.

It is a social practice then for VIPs to bring along their own coterie of conversation mates. This ensures that they are not isolated and alone at the head table. The accompanying gang provides a bubble against importunate petitioners who deign to barge into the privacy of the exalted one. This accompanying group moves with the special guest in a flying formation, like a flock of geese going south for the winter.

Someone in this coterie may be mistaken for close-in security and left out in the round of introductions. It is advisable for accompanying baggage then to dress properly and avoid short-sleeved barong or overstuffed tote bags.

People with no defined introductory tags use appearance as a way of introducing themselves. Body piercing and skin art (also known as tattoos) may be resorted to. Does a person with a nose ring need help in starting a lively exchange? This off-beat individual needs no defined occupation and is anyway probably unemployable. It’s easy to think of something to say — does his nasal ring impede blowing your nose when he has a cold?

There may be someone in a social event that nobody seems to know. Is he a gatecrasher? Is the mystery person a relative on the groom’s side?

The clueless host breaches etiquette and admits defeat. He asks the mystery man to introduce himself. The embarrassment is multiplied when the person turns out to be someone he should know — he’s here to bless the new pool.

Introducing a guest speaker formally used to be a long-winded affair. The accomplishments are enumerated, and anecdotes are inserted to make the subject more familiar to the audience (He invented the instant water heater for morning baths.)

But lately, even the practice of introductory remarks has been dispensed with — our speaker’s biodata is in the seminar kit, and the audience can read it later (Anyway, he needs no introduction). The speaker is then called to the podium as he is still reading through his speech…to check if he’s in the right place.

 

Tony Samson is chairman and CEO of TOUCH xda

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Fed facility stabilizes after shrinking by $1.75 trillion

THE DRAWDOWN of balances at a key US Federal Reserve facility appears to have bottomed out for now, providing a liquidity cushion for the central bank’s reserves during tax season.

Use of the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) facility — where counterparties like money-market funds park cash to earn 5.3% — has plummeted some $1.75 trillion since June. That’s when the government suspended the debt ceiling, unleashing trillions of dollars of Treasury bill supply and giving investors an alternative to just holding money at the Fed.

The funds in the facility began to stabilize in recent weeks, settling around $440 billion, close to the lowest level since 2021. Last month is when tax receipts began to ramp up, filling the government’s coffers and leading the Treasury to slash T-bill issuance. With more money to put to work than collateral available, eligible counterparties are shifting back to the Fed’s RRP. 

The shifting dynamics may also give the central bank more time to decide when to slow and eventually stop the reduction of its balance sheet — a process known as quantitative tightening — because there will still be cash parked at the RRP even as tax payments drain a chunk of bank reserves.

The Fed started unwinding its balance sheet in June 2022 to remove excess liquidity from the system, amassed as part of the stimulus the Fed deployed during the pandemic. Draining that funds has sparked concern that the central bank will reach a level where reserves become too scarce, an outcome that could roil markets.

“This is good news, as we have been arguing that payments this tax season would be large on the whole,” John Velis, a foreign-exchange and macro strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. “If that were to happen this time around, and with bill supply restricted, we could see reserves become uncomfortably low. However, with RRP still holding steady above $400 billion, reserve scarcity might not become an issue this month.”

Bank of New York sees tax receipts totaling close to $600 billion in April, potentially draining about $500 billion of reserves. 

That flow of money to the government will likely restrain T-bill supply in the coming weeks. Treasury is already on track to pay down about $184 billion of bills this month, well outside the $100-billion to $150-billion range of reductions the department forecast in January.

The Fed last month maintained the pace at which it’s reducing its bond holdings, even as Chair Jerome H. Powell said it will be appropriate to slow the unwind fairly soon. The release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee is expected to include more details about officials’ discussion about the balance sheet. — Bloomberg