RIYADH — Nearly two million Muslims will reach the end of the haj pilgrimage this week, but extreme heat has proved fatal for hundreds who began the journey last Friday to the Kaaba at the Grand Mosque in Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

At least 562 people have died during the haj, according to a Reuters tally based on foreign ministry statements and sources.

Egypt alone has registered 307 deaths and another 118 missing, medical and security sources told Reuters, as temperatures at times soared past 51 °Celsius (124 °F).

“It was so harsh and the people cannot bear that type of heat,” said Wilayet Mustafa, a Pakistani pilgrim.

A witness said bodies lay on the side of the road near Mina, just outside Mecca, covered with the white Ihram cloth — a simple garb worn by pilgrims — until medical vehicles arrived.

Climate scientists say such deaths offer a glimpse of what is to come for the tens of millions of Muslims expected in coming decades to undertake the haj.

“The haj has been conducted in a certain way for more than 1,000 years now, and it’s always been a hot climate,” said Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a scientific advisor at German institute Climate Analytics. “But … the climate crisis is adding to the severity of the climate conditions”.

During the haj to the Kaaba, a cube-shaped stone structure at the Grand Mosque, pilgrims perform religious rites as taught by the Prophet Mohammad to his followers 14 centuries ago.

Integral parts of the haj, Mr. Schleussner said, such as the ritual climb of Mount Arafat, have become “incredibly dangerous to human health.”

SITUATION WILL WORSEN
The timing of the haj is determined by the lunar year, which sees the pilgrimage move back by 10 days annually. While the haj is now moving towards winter, by the 2040s it will coincide with the peak of summer in Saudi Arabia.

“It is going to be very fatal,” said Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics based in Pakistan.

Heat-related deaths along the haj are not new, and have been recorded back to the 1400s. 

A lack of acclimatization to higher temperature, intense physical exertion, exposed spaces, and an older population makes pilgrims vulnerable.

Last year, more than 2,000 people suffered from heat stress, according to Saudi officials.

The situation will get much worse as the world warms, scientists said.

Saeed and Schleussner published a 2021 study in the journal Environmental Research Letters which found that if the world warms by 1.5 C (2.7 F) above pre-industrial levels, heat stroke risk for pilgrims on the haj will be five times greater.

The world is on track to reach 1.5 C of warming in the 2030s.

“People are very religiously motivated. For some of them, it is a once in a lifetime affair,” Saeed said, as each country receives a limited number of slots. “If they get a chance, they go for it.”

COOL INTERVENTIONS
In 2016, Saudi Arabia published a heat strategy that included constructing shaded areas, establishing drinking water points every 500 meters, and improving healthcare capacity.

Saudi health authorities warned pilgrims to stay hydrated and avoid being outdoors between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. during this haj.

Pakistani pilgrim Mustafa said he had to push his 75-year-old mother in a wheelchair. When they tried to rest, they were told by police to keep moving, he said.

“I was amazed to see that there were no efforts made by the Saudi government to provide any shelter or any water,” Mr. Mustafa said.

Saudi Arabia’s government media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

An Egyptian medical source told Reuters the highest death tolls were among pilgrims who were not formally registered with haj authorities and were forced to stay on the streets, exposed to heat.

Egyptian pilgrim Sameh Al-Zayni said he received water from Saudi authorities, and a Reuters witness saw Saudi police handing out water and spraying crowds to cool them down.

Spraying water is only effective at temperatures below about 35 C (95 F), scientists said. If temperatures are too high, spraying water does not help and can add to the risk in humid conditions when people struggle to shed heat through sweating. — Reuters

MADRID — China’s dumping probe into European Union (EU) pork imports following duties slapped on Chinese electric  vehicles (EVs), caught Spain’s pig farmers on the hop this week, but the sector has proved it is resilient and far less vulnerable than the bloc’s car industry.

Spain supplied 22% of China’s imported pork in 2023, worth 1.2 billion euros ($1.29 billion), and stands to lose more than any of the bloc’s members from the probe into underpriced pork after the EU took aim at China’s subsidized electric vehicle imports last week.

“It was like a shock of cold water, we didn’t expect it,” said Giuseppe Aloisio, general director of the National Association of Spanish Meat Industries (ANICE), of the announcement.

“This is a concern because the volume is significant, but it will not bankrupt the pork sector if the Chinese end up deciding to impose tariffs,” he added.

The investigation was prompted by a complaint submitted by the China Animal Husbandry Association on behalf of the domestic pork industry, China said, without giving further details.

The subsidies received by the pork industry comply with World Trade Organization rules, Spain’s Agriculture Minister Luis Planas said in a press conference on Tuesday, adding that Spain is speaking to the EU about possible solutions.

With the probe likely to take at least a year to complete, there is plenty of time for negotiation.

Spain’s pork sector has shown itself to be resilient though, and the greater strategic importance of its car industry — the second-largest in Europe behind Germany — means Spain is unlikely to try and push the EU to row back its measures against Chinese EVs despite the threat of pork tariffs, said Miguel Otero, a senior analyst at Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid.

European automakers are being challenged by an influx of lower-cost EVs from Chinese rivals. The European Commission estimates their share of the EU market has risen to 8% from below 1% in 2019 and prices are typically 20% below those of EU-made models.

SACRIFICE THE PORK
“If the trade-off is you’re not going to export any pork to China but you keep the car industry as it is or you expand it, you sacrifice the pork,” Mr. Otero said.

Spain hasn’t stated a position on EV tariffs. The Economy Ministry declined to comment.

Cars and car parts accounted for 18% of Spain’s total exports and 10% of its gross domestic product in 2023, according to the Spanish Institute for Foreign Trade (ICEX). The industry was worth about 40 billion euros, according to the Spanish Carmakers Association.

The EU on June 12 placed extra duties on Chinese EVs to combat what it said were excessive subsidies and to protect an industry worth more than 1 trillion euros, according to McKinsey & Company.

Spain’s pork industry, meanwhile, withstood import bans by Russia over swine flu fears in 2009 and 2013 and after EU sanctions were imposed in 2014 on Russia for its annexation of Crimea.

Russia was Spain’s biggest customer outside the EU in 2012, importing 153 million euros of frozen pork before falling to just 180,000 euros in 2014.

The sector is ready to pivot to other markets again, as it did from Russia, said Alberto Herranz, director of Spain’s pork producers’ association Interporc.

“When the Russian market was closed, we didn’t go crying to the European Union, nor did we go crying to the Ministry of Agriculture, but what we did was to take a step forward and look for diversification,” Mr. Herranz said.

Trade with China picked up just as exports to Russia ground to a halt. Spain’s exports of frozen pork to China reached a peak of 2.5 billion euros in 2020 as an outbreak of swine flu ravaged China’s domestic production.

While China remains its largest market, exports have since fallen and are expected to keep falling as China’s production returns to normal. Meanwhile, exporters are already making contingency plans, growing other Asian markets such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, according to ICEX data.

Still, the bloc’s biggest pork producer, which has benefited from swine fever hitting Germany’s production, feels aggrieved it has become collateral damage in a fight between two of the world’s largest trading powers, said ANICE’s Mr. Aloisio.

“We see ourselves as spectators and victims of a train crash between great economic powers, and we are beginning to pay the price,” he said.

But the response from China could have been far worse given that the pork industry is a small percentage of EU exports to China and that producers have time to adapt and suggests an unwillingness to square up for a fight, Eurointelligence analysts wrote in a note.

“It may show that China is willing to cut a deal with the EU over the tariffs, rather than treat them as the opening salvo of a trade war,” Eurointelligence said. — Reuters