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10 facts about global oil production and exports in 2025

The quick US invasion of Venezuela and capture of its president, Nicolas Maduro, was big news last week. Mr. Maduro was president from 2013-2025 and during his term, the Venezuelan economy and GDP size (at PPP values) shrank, from $561 billion in 2013 to around $224 billion in 2025. Despite this, Venezuela is a giant in the oil industry.

In this piece, I will highlight a number of facts about Venezuela and the international oil industry. I will also discuss the latest merchandise exports data. Here we go.

1. Venezuela was the third larger oil producer in the world since the 1940s. In 1965 it produced 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), the third largest producer after the US and the USSR. But this production shrank to only 0.96 mbpd in 2024 and around 0.94 mbpd in 2025.

In proven oil reserves, Venezuela is number one in the world with 303 billion barrels (bb), followed by Saudi Arabia with 267 bb, Iran with 209 bb, Canada with 163 bb, and Iraq with 145 bb (source: OPEC).

2. The US is the largest oil producer in the world, with 20.1 mbpd in 2024 and above 20 mbpd in 2025. The second to fifth largest producers are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran.

3. South America is now producing more oil, led by Brazil, Argentina, and, surprisingly, Guyana. Guyana had no oil production at all until 2018, then it produced 0.62 mbpd in 2024 and is projected to have produced 1 mbpd in 2025. Venezuela, now to be run by the US according to President Donald Trump, can expect to see oil-gas production ramp up starting this year.

4. China continues to slowly expand its oil production with 4.26 mbpd in 2024 and projected production at 4.32 mbpd in 2025.

5. Global oil production keeps rising despite anti-fossil fuel campaigns by the climate establishment and many UN organizations — from 31.8 mbpd in 1965 to 81.8 mbpd in 2005, 96.9 mbpd in 2024 and projected at 106 mbpd in 2025 (see Table 1).

6. In global merchandise trade, China’s exports in 2025 of $308 billion/month is equivalent to the total exports of the US + Mexico + Canada + Brazil combined at $309 billion/month.

7. Hong Kong overtook Japan, Italy, and South Korea in 2025 to become the 5th largest exporter in the world. Singapore overtook the UK and Canada in 2025 to become the 13th largest exporter in the world.

8. Taiwan has made the largest exports leapfrog. In 2025 it overtook five countries — Belgium, Singapore, the UK, Switzerland, and Canada to become the world’s 11th largest exporter. Vietnam made second largest exports leapfrog. In 2025 it overtook India, Spain ($36 billion/month), and Russia ($34 billion/month) to become the world’s 17th largest exporter.

9. US exports were flat from 2022 to 2024, then saw an expansion of $8 billion/month in 2025 which may not be due to product competitiveness but the result of moves by many countries to placate Trump so that he would reduce US tariffs on products from those countries.

10. Exports from Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and France were almost flat from 2022 to 2025, while Belgium experienced a decline (see Table 2).

The Philippines should integrate more economically with our Asian neighbors, especially China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and Vietnam. They are big sources of our imports, foreign direct investments, and tourism. They are also destinations for our exports and skilled workers. The Philippines’ chairmanship of the ASEAN in 2026 should help attain this.

Our foreign and defense policies should be consistent with our trade, investment, and tourism policies. War mongering vs China should be tamed.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

Peso slides to near one-month low on flight to safety amid Venezuela turmoil

BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO dropped to a near one-month low on Monday, sinking back to the P59 level, as players flocked to safer assets following the United States’ attack on Venezuela.

The local unit fell by 28.9 centavos to close at P59.13 versus the greenback from its P58.841 finish on Friday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was its weakest close since its P59.21 finish on Dec. 10.

The peso opened Monday’s trading session weaker at P58.888 versus the dollar. Its worst showing was its closing level of P59.13, while its intraday best was at P58.85 against the greenback.

Dollars traded rose to $929 million from $699.13 million on Friday.

“The local currency weakened significantly from safe-haven dollar demand following the abrupt ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which is highly expected to influence the global oil market,” the first trader said in an e-mail.

“The dollar-peso traded higher to close at its intraday high of P59.13 on renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and after Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the peso will trade between P58 and P60 per dollar from 2026 until 2028,” the second trader said in a phone interview.

The dollar started the first full trading week of 2026 with a broad rally, Reuters reported. Currency traders largely looked past the United States’ weekend raid in Venezuela and the capture of Mr. Maduro, focusing instead on a slate of US macroeconomic indicators due this week that could be crucial in steering Federal Reserve policy.

The dollar advanced 0.3% to $1.1682 per euro, after earlier touching its strongest level since Dec. 10 at $1.1672.

It climbed to as high as 157.295 yen, 0.7951 Swiss franc and C$1.37771, all of which were the highest levels since Dec. 22.

Investors held their nerve on Monday after President Donald J. Trump said the US would take control of the oil-producing nation.

While Washington has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989, Mr. Trump’s threats against Colombia and Mexico highlighted the aggressive shift in US policy and brought geopolitical perils back to the fore for financial markets at the start of the year.

For investors, Mr. Trump’s actions in Venezuela have also raised uneasy questions about their implications for China’s posture towards Taiwan and whether Washington might push more aggressively for regime change in Iran.

For Tuesday, the first trader said the peso could rebound on expectations of slower December inflation.

The first trader sees the peso moving between P58.90 and P59.15 per dollar, while the second trader sees it ranging from P58.80 to P59.20. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

Havitas Properties to enter affordable housing segment

AYAHILLSBATANGAS.COM

HAVITAS PROPERTIES, INC. plans to enter the affordable housing segment this year with the launch of a residential project in Quezon province, according to its chief executive officer (CEO).

The project will target the “dollar-earning demographic,” including overseas Filipino workers and local digital nomads, Havitas Properties President and CEO Jonathan F. Caro said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

“These are the ones continuing to drive housing demand, which our company is getting into by 2026,” he added.

Havitas has focused on leisure and resort-style developments catering to the high-end market. In February last year, the company launched Aya Hills, a two-hectare resort-style townhouse development.

The developer is backed by director Michael G. Tan, son of tycoon Lucio C. Tan, Sr. and president and chief operating officer at Asia Brewery, Inc.

This year, Havitas is scheduled to launch a seaside leisure-themed development in San Juan, La Union.

Its broader project pipeline includes income-generating vacation homes and mid-rise residential condominium projects, according to information posted on its website.

Despite its planned move into the affordable housing segment, Havitas will continue to focus on wellness-oriented developments, which Mr. Caro said remain in demand among high-end buyers investing in luxury real estate.

Data from property consultancy firm Colliers Philippines showed that only 5% and 3% of unsold residential units come from the upscale and luxury segments, respectively. Units in these categories typically cost P12 million and above, indicating relatively tight supply.

“Wellness real estate will be one of the bright spots in 2026, where the high net-worth market will combine their work with leisure,” Mr. Caro said.

The Global Wellness Institute defines wellness real estate as residential, commercial or institutional properties designed to support the health and well-being of occupants. The institute expects this segment to grow at an average 15.8% from 2023 to 2028, based on its latest report.

Demand for wellness-focused developments would also be supported by the continued expansion of the local tourism industry, Mr. Caro said, citing the importance of sustained collaboration between the government and private sector to support long-term growth. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

Battleship Potemkin at 100: How the Soviet film redrew the boundaries of cinema

Scenes from Battleship Potemkin (1925)

PEOPLE CROWD together in the sun. All smiles and waves. Joyous.

Pandemonium erupts. Panic hits like a shockwave as those assembled swivel and bolt, spilling down a seemingly infinite flight of steps.

Armed men appear at the crest, advancing with mechanical precision. We are pulled into the chaos, carried with the writhing mass as it surges downward. Images sear themselves on the retina. A child crushed underfoot. A mother cut down mid-stride.

An infant’s steel-framed pram rattling free, gathering speed as it hurtles downward. A woman’s glasses splinter, skewing across her bloodied face as her mouth stretches open in a soundless scream.

I’ve just described one of the most famous sequences in the history of film: the massacre of unarmed civilians on the steps of Odessa. Instantly recognizable and endlessly quoted, it is the centerpiece of Sergei Eisenstein’s masterpiece, Battleship Potemkin, which turned 100 in December.

A NEW FRONT FOR CINEMA
Battleship Potemkin redrew the boundaries of cinema, both aesthetically and politically.

It is a dramatized retelling of a 1905 mutiny in the Black Sea Fleet of the Imperial Russian Navy — a key cresting point in the wave of profound social and political unrest that swept across the empire that year.

The first Russian revolution saw workers, peasants, and soldiers rise up against their masters, driven by deep frustration with poverty, autocracy, and military defeat.

Although the tsar remained in power, the discord forced him to concede limited reforms that fell far short of what had demanded.

The impetus for the historical mutiny on the Potemkin was a protest over rotten food rations. Eisenstein emphasizes this in his film, lingering on stomach-churning close-ups of maggots crawling over spoiled meat.

When the sailors refuse to eat the putrid rations, they are accused of insubordination and lined up before a firing squad. The men refuse to gun down their comrades and the crew rises up, raising the red flag of international solidarity as they symbolically nail their colors to the mast.

A sailor called Vakulinchuk, who helped lead the uprising, is killed in the struggle. Sailing to Odessa, the crew lays his body out for public mourning and the mood in the city becomes increasingly volatile. Support for the sailors swells, and the authorities respond with lethal force, sending in troops and prompting the slaughter on the Odessa Steps.

The Potemkin fires on the city’s opera house in retaliation, where military leaders have gathered. Soon after, a squadron of loyal warships approaches to crush the revolt. The mutineers brace for battle, but the sailors on the other boats choose not to fire. They cheer the rebels and allow the Potemkin to pass in an act of comradeship.

At this point Eisenstein departs from the historical record: in reality, the 1905 mutiny was thwarted and the revolution suppressed.

POLITICAL MYTH-MAKING
Battleship Potemkin was commissioned by the Soviet State to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the revolution.

The new Bolshevik administration viewed cinema as a powerful tool for shaping public consciousness and Eisenstein — then in his late 20s and gaining attention for his radical theater work — was tasked with creating a film that would celebrate the origins of Soviet power.

Eisenstein initially planned a sprawling multi-part film canvasing the revolution’s major events, but faced production constraints. He turned instead to the Potemkin, a story which allowed him to depict oppression, collective struggle, and the forging of revolutionary unity in a distilled form.

The finished piece was less a literal history lesson than a highly stylized piece of political myth-making.

When Potemkin was presented at Moscow’s Bolshoi Theater in December 1925 the invited spectators, a mix of communist dignitaries and veterans of the abortive 1905 mutiny, punctuated the screening with bursts of wild applause — none more ecstatic than when the battleship’s crew unfurl the red flag, hand-tinted a vivid red on the black and white film.

CELEBRATED — AND BANNED
Battleship Potemkin was a global sensation. Filmmakers and critics hailed it as truly groundbreaking. Charlie Chaplin declared it “the best film in the world.”

Yet its impact also made it feared. Governments recognized the volatile political charge running through its images. In Germany it was heavily cut, and in Britain it was banned. Even so, prints continued to circulate, and the film’s reputation only grew.

Eisenstein’s growing international status did little to protect him at home. As the 1920s gave way to the 1930s, the tides of Stalinist cultural policy began to turn sharply against him. Eisenstein’s approach was profoundly out of step with the new aesthetic of Socialist Realism, which demanded clear narratives, heroic characters, and unambiguous political messaging.

Where his signature technique, montage, was dynamic and dialectical, Socialist Realism insisted on straightforward storytelling and easily digestible moral lessons. As a result, Eisenstein found himself accused of obscurity, excess, and political unreliability.

Several of his projects were halted; others were taken out of his hands altogether. Those he did complete were admired, but none matched the impact of Battleship Potemkin.

A century on, its vision of oppression, courage, and collective resistance still crackles with an energy that reminds us why cinema matters. — The Conversation via Reuters Connect

 

Alexander Howard is a Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, at the University of Sydney.

PAL named most punctual airline in Asia-Pacific for 2025

PHILIPPINEAIRLINES.COM

FLAG CARRIER Philippine Airlines (PAL) was named the most punctual airline in the Asia-Pacific region for 2025, posting an on-time arrival rate of 83.12%, according to global aviation analytics firm Cirium.

“This achievement reflects the discipline, professionalism and teamwork of our entire organization, particularly our frontline teams who operate our flights safely and reliably every day,” PAL Holdings, Inc. President and Chief Operating Officer Lucio C. Tan III said in a statement on Monday.

On-time performance measures the share of flights arriving at the gate within 15 minutes of their scheduled time. PAL said punctuality remains a core commitment to passengers, supported by close coordination across flight operations, engineering, airport services and ground handling.

“The recognition comes as Asia-Pacific carriers continue to navigate capacity pressures and complex operational challenges. Philippine Airlines remains focused on sustaining strong operational performance and further strengthening reliability,” the company said.

Cirium’s November 2025 monthly report also ranked PAL first among Asia-Pacific airlines after it logged an 84.67% on-time arrival rate for the month. The airline completed 96.31% of its 9,739 scheduled flights during the period.

PAL Holdings reported a 33.58% increase in attributable net income to P9.03 billion for the first nine months of 2025, supported by higher passenger revenues. At the local bourse on Monday, shares in the company closed unchanged at P3.80 each. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Stop losing customers: Why your retention strategy needs AI now

BENZOIX/FREEPIK

Here’s a question that keeps executives up at night: Why are customers leaving, and what can we do about it?

If you’re watching customers slip away despite your best efforts, you’re not alone. In subscription-based businesses — think streaming services, software, telecom — losing just 5% more customers can slash profits by 25% or more. The math is brutal. But the solution isn’t acquiring more customers. It’s keeping the ones you have.

This isn’t just common sense; it’s now backed by AI. Companies like Verizon and Vodafone have already figured this out. They’re using neural networks, sophisticated AI systems inspired by how our brains work, to predict which customers are about to leave, and how to intervene before it’s too late.

Think of it this way: What if you could know, 30 to 90 days in advance, which customers are thinking about canceling? Not just guess, but actually know, with data-driven confidence? AI models can analyze everything, such as billing patterns, customer service interactions, and usage trends, and can flag the people most likely to churn.

But the goal isn’t just to predict who’s leaving. It’s to change the outcome.

If the customer of a mobile carrier has had two service issues in one month and then receives a higher bill than usual, that’s a red flag. Instead of waiting for that customer to call and complain, or, worse, just cancel; the AI system flags them early. The company reaches out proactively, fixes the service issue, and then maybe adjusts their plan. No blanket discount. No desperate retention offer. Just solving the actual problem.

The results? The customer stays. Support costs go down. And the company stops throwing money at retention through indiscriminate discounts.

This may sound complicated and expensive. But AI in 2026 is no longer exotic technology. The tools are mature. The returns are measurable. And your competitors may already be using them.

Do you know who among your customers are at risk right now? Are you reacting to churn after it happens, or do you have early warning systems? How much are you spending on discounts and promotions versus actually fixing the underlying problems that make customers want to leave?

If you don’t have good answers to those questions, you have a problem. And it’s costing you more than you think.

The beauty of AI-powered churn prediction is that it shifts you from reactive to proactive mode. You’re playing offense instead of defense. You’re solving problems before they become cancellations. You’re building relationships instead of just offering discounts.

Of course, this requires getting some things right. Privacy matters, so use only data you have the right to use. Be transparent and give customers meaningful choices. Fairness matters, so make sure your models work equally well across different customer segments. Explainability matters, too. Your frontline teams need to understand why the system is flagging certain customers so they can take the right action.

Predicting and preventing churn isn’t a nice-to-have data science project. It’s a business imperative. Companies that master this capability don’t just reduce churn. They build stronger customer relationships and create sustainable competitive advantages.

So, what should you do tomorrow morning?

Start by asking your team three simple questions:

1. Do we actually know which customers are at risk of leaving right now?

2. Are we reacting to churn after it happens, or do we have systems in place to see it coming?

3. Are we spending on discounts and promotions instead of solving the real issues that cause customers to leave?

If you don’t have good answers, it’s time to explore what AI-powered churn prediction can do for your business. The technology exists. The returns are proven. Your competitors are already moving.

The question isn’t whether you can afford to invest in churn prediction. It’s whether you can afford not to. Because in a world in which every customer counts, the companies that win aren’t the ones acquiring the most customers. They’re the ones keeping the customers they already have.

 

Sheila Salamanca, DBA, is a faculty member in Marketing at the Ramon V. Del Rosario College of Business, De La Salle University, and a director of Data Science at 1520ai, LLC, a US Healthcare AI venture delivering intelligent, AI-powered solutions.

sheila.salamanca@dlsu.edu.ph

BSP, AMA Bank reach compromise to resolve closure dispute

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Monday said it has entered an agreement with AMA Rural Bank of Mandaluyong, Inc. (AMA Bank) to resolve the issues surrounding the latter’s closure.

“For the protection of the interests of the depositors and bank clients of AMA Rural Bank of Mandaluyong, Inc., the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and AMA Bank have mutually and amicably resolved all of their disputes fully and comprehensively and have agreed to enter into an agreement,” the central bank said in a statement on Monday.

It advised AMA Bank depositors, creditors and other clients to submit their claims for payment and direct all their concerns to the bank.

“In accordance with the Compromise Agreement between BSP and AMA Bank, AMA Bank shall continue to be under the regulatory jurisdiction of the BSP for the purpose of ensuring its implementation.”

In November 2019, the central bank issued a circular ordering the closure of AMA Bank amid alleged liquidity problems, prompting the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp. (PDIC) to take over and liquidate the bank’s assets.

However, AMA Bank appealed the order before the Supreme Court and was later permitted to reopen after the Court of Appeals found insufficient grounds to warrant the closure order. The High Court then upheld the appellate court’s ruling, instructing the BSP and PDIC to restore the bank’s full operational status and returned the seized assets.

AMA Bank’s head office is in Mandaluyong City. It has 12 branches located in Pasig City; Baguio City; San Fernando City, La Union; Tuguegarao City, Cagayan; Baliuag, Bulacan; San Fernando, Pampanga; Bacoor, Cavite; Cainta and Morong in Rizal; Calamba City and San Pablo City in Laguna; and Palo, Leyte. — Katherine K. Chan

Top 20 parent/standalone companies in the Philippines by gross revenues in 2024

THE TOP 1,000 corporations in the Philippines weathered economic shocks in 2024 as their balance sheets remained stable despite geopolitical tensions and subdued global demand. Read the full story.

How PSEi member stocks performed — January 5, 2026

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Monday, January 5, 2026.


Stocks climb on expectations of slower inflation

BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE SHARES extended their climb on Monday on expectations of slower headline inflation in December and as bargain hunting continued.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 0.48% or 29.47 points to end at 6,164.53, while the broader all shares index increased by 1.04% or 36.69 points to 3,553.74.

“The local market rose as investors continued with their bargain hunting. Expectations that inflation remained benign last December helped in Monday’s climb,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release December inflation data on Tuesday (Jan. 6).

A BusinessWorld poll of 14 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.4% for December headline inflation, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.2%-2% forecast.

This is slower than the 1.5% print in November and 2.9% in the same month in 2024. It would also mark the 10th straight month that the headline figure was below the central bank’s 2%-4% annual target.

“The local bourse traded at the highs before bagging a decent gain last minute as investors picked up quality issues after the strong December rebound in factory activity that saw a 50.2 print, driven by the rise in order volumes,” AP Securities, Inc. said in a market note.

The PSEi opened Monday’s session lower than Friday’s close at 6,115.79, which was its intraday trough. Meanwhile, it returned to the 6,200 level for the first time since September, reaching an intraday high of 6,237.14.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded to 50.2 in December, a turnaround from November’s 47.4 which was the “strongest deterioration” in over four years, data released on Friday showed.

December saw the highest PMI in four months or since the 50.8 reading in August.

Most sectoral indices closed higher on Monday. Mining and oil rose by 2.95% or 458.04 points to 15,980.86; services increased by 1.58% or 37.35 points to 2,391.88; industrials went up by 0.71% or 62.50 points to 8,835.56; and financials climbed by 0.5% or 10.62 points to 2,106.21.

Meanwhile, holding firms dropped by 0.28% or 14.17 points to 4,884.43, and property went down by 0.11% or 2.60 points to 2,306.24.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 133 to 93, while 51 names closed Monday’s session unchanged.

“ACEN Corp. was the day’s top index gainer, jumping 5.5% to P3.07. Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. was the main index laggard, falling 4.65% to P14.76,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover went up to P5.74 billion on Monday with 948.53 million shares traded from the P4.36 billion with 444.17 million issues dealt on Friday.

Net foreign buying went down to P330.78 million from P427.27 million. — A.G.C. Magno

China intensified SCS coercion last year, says Philippine Navy

A China Coast Guard vessel fires a water cannon at the BRP Datu Pagbuaya near Thitu Island, in the latest flare-up between Manila and Beijing in the disputed South China Sea. — PCG

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

CHINESE maritime forces stepped up coerciveness in the South China Sea (SCS) last year by shifting their deployment patterns, in a move that a Philippine armed forces report said shows Beijing’s willingness to raise tensions in the disputed waterway.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) and the China Coast Guard have boosted coordination during deployments near maritime features, complementing each other’s presence in a bid to expand control over the contested waters, according to the report shared to reporters by Rear Admiral Roy Vincent T. Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesman on the South China Sea, on Monday.

“PLA-N presence in 2025 became more consistent, predictable and geographically closer to contested areas,” the six-page report said.

It added that Chinese forces have “shifted from intermittent support to a persistent deterrent posture,” signaling Beijing’s intent to escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately reply to a Viber message seeking comment.

The Philippines is at odds with China over the South China Sea, where Beijing asserts control over almost the entire waterway based on a “nine-dash line” map. A United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal ruled in 2016 that China’s claim is illegal, a decision Beijing has rejected.

Chinese maritime forces have maintained a persistent presence around contested features, with that posture sometimes leading to clashes at sea as the Philippines resists Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.

It added that the Philippines broadened joint maritime activities with allied nations last year to push back against China’s sweeping sea claims, holding 20 drills with the US, Japan, Australia and others in 2025.

“Following nearly every maritime cooperative activity, however, China has responded through a combination of kinetic and non-kinetic actions, including increased PLA-N, China Coast Guard and Chinese maritime militia vessels presence near Philippine islands and features,” the report said.

“This recurring pattern highlights both the strategic importance of maritime cooperative activities in preserving the rules-based international order and China’s continued reliance on illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions to counter Philippine-led cooperation without escalating to open conflict,” it added.

PHL-FRANCE VFA
Amid heightened tensions, the Philippines continues to widen its security network as it nears the conclusion of a new defense pact with France.

A separate document, Mr. Trinidad shared on Monday, showed the Philippines and France are expected to seal a visiting forces agreement (VFA) in early this year, paving the way for closer defense cooperation between the two nations.

The Department of National Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent via Viber.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. approved negotiations on a VFA with France in March last year. Since then, the two sides have held talks, with the most recent discussions taking place in December.

In a Dec. 11 statement, the Defense department said the negotiations reflect a shared commitment to deepen defense ties, improve interoperability, and strengthen cooperation in support of regional peace and stability.

Once concluded, the agreement would make France the first European country to secure a VFA with the Philippines. Manila has already signed VFAs with Australia, Japan and New Zealand, while similar talks with the United Kingdom are ongoing.

Such a military pact would be advantageous for the Philippines as France is a respected naval power, said Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation.

“Paris is a powerhouse supporter of the Philippines in the blue ocean economy, military and coast guard modernizations, and environmental concerns and disinformation issues,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Yearender: PHL budget system seen as test case for transparency reforms

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed the General Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2026 during a ceremony at Malacañan Palace on Monday, Jan. 5. — NOEL B. PABALATE/PPA POOL

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

THE government’s budgetary system has become a proving ground for transparency reforms, analysts said, as mounting public pressure forces lawmakers to demonstrate greater openness in the wake of corruption scandals.

Analysts noted that unless transparency is imposed in policies, paired with civil society participation, and stripped of patronage-laden allocations, the measures risk being dismissed as optics rather than systemic change.

Joy G. Aceron, convenor-director of transparency group G-Watch, said that it is not enough for only a part of the budget process to be transparent.

“There should be transparency, participation and accountability at all levels from preparations to implementation,” she said in a Facebook Messenger chat, noting that mobilization and education of people should accompany the effort to open the budget process.

Congress has imposed several transparency initiatives for the deliberation of the P6.793-trillion national budget for next year, amid heightened public backlash over opaque budget insertions in the 2025 budget.

The multibillion-peso corruption scandal involving congressional insertions, and anomalous flood control projects fueled further public outcry, as investigations implicated senior lawmakers and government officials.

This has forced the government to impose transparency measures, which Ms. Aceron described as “performative.”

“I don’t think the government knows how to do transparency, participation and accountability that actually work, or they are probably not interested in making it work,” she said. “They only need to appear transparent.”

Adolfo Jose A. Montesa, an adviser for the People’s Budget Coalition, said the backlash from the corruption scandal has pushed legislators to re-earn public trust.

“We hope that it doesn’t end with these one-way mechanisms,” he said in a Viber message. “Genuine participation entails dialogue, and to truly prevent corruption, civil society should have avenues to truly engage the budget process.”

The administration has been under mounting scrutiny over anomalous flood control projects revealed to be substandard, unfinished, or completely nonexistent. This is despite budget allocations to the Public Works department for flood mitigation ballooning to about P500 billion since 2022.

This has also prompted separate investigation by Congress and the Independent Commission for Infrastructure, a three-month old commission created by the President.

According to Mr. Montesa, better transparency is a necessary first step towards broader participation and public scrutiny.

He added that uploaded budget documents had allowed civil society organizations to analyze all the projects of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and tag “red flags” based on duplicated projects and overpricing.

Transparency reforms could remain futile if it does not prompt civil society to influence government decision making, Ms. Aceron said.

“Transparency is only a means or tool,” she said. “If the budget was made transparent, but there is no way civil society could have influenced the decisions and hold the legislators to account, transparency will have no meaning.”

Among its transparency reforms, the House and Senate had approved a resolution that allows the live streaming of the bicameral conference committee hearing, a session previously closed to the public. The Senate also moved to have all budget-related documents — including transcripts, hearings and briefings — to be posted within an online platform.

Analysts have, however, noted that live streaming the bicameral sessions expanded visibility of lawmakers as they finalized the national spending plant but fell short of actually being transparent.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said that despite opening the bicameral panel’s hearing to the public, budget deliberations remained largely closed doors.

“They have improved procedural visibility but not necessarily substantive transparency. Livestreams show deliberations, and documents are published, but key decisions are often settled before formal sessions,” he said in a Messenger chat.

The bicameral conference for the 2026 budget has drawn public ire due to off-camera caucuses and negotiations limiting accountability, as lawmakers tried to reconcile budget allocations for building materials for infrastructure and government aid.

Ms. Aceron said that the general condition of the budget process remained opaque as only a portion of deliberations was televised.

“No efforts to enable participation and accountability in any part of the budget process, and decisions were not explained,” she added.

“There remains a lot of questions about the budget, especially when it comes to allocations that perpetuate patronage, like the ayuda programs and those prone to corruption, like the unprogrammed allocations,” she said.

Senators and congressmen resolved the disagreeing provision of the 2026 national budget after six days of deliberations, delayed by disagreements over additional funding for the DPWH.

Congress ratified the bicameral committee report for the budget on Dec. 29, which President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed on Jan. 5, vetoing some P92.5 billion worth of unprogrammed funds.

LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES
Analysts said that lawmakers must approve several legislative proposals or institutional mechanisms that would change how public funds are approved and monitored, to lessen cases of misuse.

Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, said that the government must pass measures that would improve freedom of information (FOI) and public participation.

“Along with the FOI, strengthening local development councils and expanding participatory budgeting at all levels of government are necessary to ensure that public funds remain actually public instead of slipping into private pockets,” he said in a Messenger chat.

Although the 1987 Constitution recognizes the people’s right to access public information, an enabling law is needed for full implementation. Several measures to improve FOI have already been in the 20th Congress.

FOI proposals have pushed since 1992 but failed to pass, primarily due to a lack of legislative urgency.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said that the government must empower budget suggestions from civil society organizations.

“As much as we rely on (the) Department of Budget and Management and Department of Finance to prepare the overall draft of the budget, the Constitution is clear that civil society and sectoral stakeholders have a say in the impacts of budgets,” he said via Messenger chat.

Mr. Juliano added that public participation must be normalized and integrated in committee hearings, not just as a discretionary courtesy.

According to Mr. Tapia, key government budget reforms must include mandatory publication of bicameral working drafts and amendment rationales, a searchable public budget database down to the project level, strengthened independent fiscal institutions, and clearer limits on post-enactment realignments.

“Ultimately, transparency must be embedded in rules, not left to discretion or goodwill,” he added.

Mr. Montesa also noted that the passage of the Citizen Access and Disclosure of Expenditures for National Accountability bill, Senate Bill No. 1506, which requires the government to upload all budget data onto a digital portal, would improve budget scrutiny.

The Senate approved the proposed measure on final reading last month, it awaits action from the House of Representatives.

“Facilitating this kind of transparency will not only enable better accountability, but also open doors for wider participation,” he said.