Home Blog Page 12775

The people’s clamor — A loss for a loss

For a long time now, recovering from a loss as massive as being denied of their right to claim a refund for the creditable input value-added tax (VAT) they paid has been a key issue for diligent taxpayers. This issue remains a conundrum that is worthy of review and clarification every now and then. With the rise of VAT refunds denied because of technicalities, taxpayers are now keen on seeking justice with their own hands. Thus, a loss of a loss — i.e., when denied a claim, which is a significant loss on their part, taxpayers are convinced they can deduct the same as a loss.

Since the rules have yet to be set in stone, taxpayers are deeply concerned about an accepted solution if their claim for a VAT refund is denied. Our Tax Code, as amended, has not clearly expressed the remedies to which our taxpayers can avail in this event. The denial becomes an extensive loss, which the taxpayers can only hope to recover by treating it as an expense deductible against gross income. Is this too much to ask from the government?

The current rules of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) result in at least millions of pesos’ worth of losses caused by denied claims for VAT refunds. Unavoidably then, the BIR should have cautioned taxpayers and issued conclusive guidelines on how to treat the unutilized input VAT. The long-standing issues on what taxpayers can do with their idle asset accounts and whether the loss will remain a burden on them should have been settled in clear terms by now.

In light of recent events, however, there seems to be hope amidst the ominous negativity of results in claiming tax refunds, when the Court of Tax Appeals (CTA) issued a decision saying that a denied claim for VAT refund is a deductible loss.

The taxpayer initially availed of a tax refund, but was denied. The taxpayer wrote off the amount in its books and claimed it as a deduction from gross income. The BIR, however, prohibited the same and assessed the former for deficiency income tax.

Under Section 34(D)(1)(a) of the Tax Code, as amended, it provides that a loss actually sustained during the taxable year that is not compensated by insurance or otherwise shall be deductible from gross income, if the same is incurred in trade or business. This means that a claim for a refund eventually denied on a certain year becomes a loss sustained during the same taxable year and, as such, must be deductible from the taxpayer’s gross income, if it is incurred due to the zero-rated sales of the latter.

In addition, the use of an account name “bad debts” does not necessarily equate to bad debt expense, as identified in the Tax Code. The account referring to a deductible loss can be understood as a loss defined under the Black’s Law Dictionary. The loss should encompass an undesirable outcome of a risk, the disappearance or diminution of value, usually in an unexpected or relatively unpredictable way, as applied herein. This confirms how a reasonable expectation of entitlement to a tax credit certificate for unutilized input VAT could encourage a taxpayer to file for a tax refund. Upon denial thereof, a taxpayer is bereft of this opportunity. Consequently, it bears without stressing that it is proper to consider an amount pertaining to the denied VAT refund claim as a loss and deduct it from the gross income in the year the refund is denied. The taxpayer is left without any reasonable expectation to classify the same as an asset. 

With this, I would like to emphasize BIR Ruling No. DA 591-2004 dated Nov. 24, 2004, wherein the BIR also held that input taxes are assets which are expected to benefit the taxpayer. Denial by the BIR or the CTA of the refund application means that the asset has lost its useful value. Thus, the denied claim should be treated as a deductible loss of property sustained during the taxable year.

This case has undoubtedly shed new light on the arduous dispute over the treatment of a denied claim for VAT refund. What remains to be seen now is if the CTA’s position will soon be affirmed by the CTA En Banc and, ultimately, by the Supreme Court to ensure a binding legal precedent on the matter and put an end to this predicament wherein the taxpayers have to carry all the burden.

Even if the decisions continue to flip-flop with regard to this pressing issue, it would be unfair to hold this uncertainty solely against hardworking taxpayers who can only rely on the law and rulings to guide them. The taxpayers must be accordingly given sufficient remedies to aid them with their investments, transactions, and their accurate tax treatment.

The BIR remains mum on the definitive rules on the proper treatment of these denied claims. However, it is commendable that the CTA continues to advocate the taxpayers’ privilege to recover input VAT. Without this support, VAT-registered persons are definitely at a disadvantage for not being able to avail of the benefit of the VAT system, despite efforts of compliance with rules and regulations to be entitled to the same. The law extends to all VAT-registered persons, even those engaged in export sales. Otherwise, the purpose for which the system was developed would deliberately be bashed and, thus, futile to say the least.

Steffanieh Gail M. Tan is an associate of the Tax Advisory and Compliance of P&A Grant Thornton.

How PSEi member stocks performed — December 11, 2017

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Monday, December 11, 2017.

Filling Spaces (12/12/17)

MHE-Demag’s new partner

The Philippine unit of crane hoist manufacturer MHE-Demag said it has partnered with Wacker Neuson in its bid to venture into “smaller-scale” construction equipment business.

MHE-Demag has manufacturing facilities in the Philippines and has been operating commercially in the country for over 27 years now. A joint venture between Jebsen & Jessen (SEA) and Demag Cranes and Components GmbH, MHE-Demag makes industrial cranes and hoists, warehousing equipment such as lift trucks and dock levelers, aerial work platforms, as well as automated car parking systems.

It tapped Wacker Neuson to offer a range of equipment that “is mobile, easy to maneuver and compact, fitting narrow alleys perfectly and avoiding road blockage because of its size,” the company said in a statement sent over the weekend.

The partnership agreement was signed this month, it said.

Wacker Neuson has nine plants around the world and has corporate sales and service organizations in at least 35 countries, according to the statement.

“Infrastructure investments remain to be a top priority of the local government,” the statement quoted Marc Von Grabowski, president of MHE-Demag Philippines, Inc., as saying.

“The Philippines is also known to be a leader in adapting innovations, with the usage of compact construction equipment getting more common here and around the world.”

The range of equipment includes tracked excavators, mobile or wheeled excavators, tele handlers, wheel loaders and wheel dumpers.

“These compact excavators and dumpers are catered to smaller-scale contractors, including civil engineering and general contractors, property developers, contractors for housing, roadworks, gardening and landscape, farmers, plantation owners, miners, rental parks, recycling yards, logistics, and communal works, among many others.”

Botanika turns over first tower

Botanika Nature Residences, an upscale, low-density vertical community in the Metro South, said it has completed its first tower and begun turning over units to buyers.

The mid-rise condominium tower is a project of Filigree, which commissioned the following to build the brand: Leandro V. Locsin Partners, Architecture International, AECOM Singapore, and Miaja Design Group.

“To assure utmost privacy and exclusivity, Botanika has a low floor area ratio (FAR) — the ratio of the total net floor area of a building to the total lot area. This means generously sized condominium units that are tailor fit[ted] to your needs and your lifestyle,” Botanika’s Dec. 11 statement read.

The tower has two-bedroom suites, three-bedroom flats, and three-bedroom with garden bi-level units with sizes ranging from 123 to 343 square meters. It also has grand penthouse units all offering “breathtaking views, exceptional finishes, and the finest craftsmanship,” the builder said.

Botanika is a green development with a registration in the Philippine Green Building Council’s BERDE (Building for Ecologically Responsible Design Excellence) certification system.

How difficult will it be for select Asia-Pacific economies to finance infrastructure development on their own?

Nation at a Glance — (12/12/17)

News stories from across the nation. Visit www.bworldonline.com (section: The Nation) to read more national and regional news from the Philippines.

World’s best-selling cars of 2017

In the third quarter of the year, global vehicles market continued to grow at near 4%. Among the largest automobile markets worldwide, car sales of Russia and Brazil were expanded with double-digit growth while China and India remained the same.

In 2016, over 77 million vehicles were sold worldwide, up from less than 54 million units in the years between 2000 and 2013. The sales were attributed to the increased demand from customers in Asia and North America, and the recovering automotive industry in United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Poland and other European Union member states. By the end of the year, more than 78 million automobiles are expected to be sold.

Among the total number of vehicles sold as of November, Toyota Corolla, Ford F-Series, Volkswagen Golf, Honda Civic and Toyota RAV4 topped the list of the world’s best-selling cars, according to a report by Focus2move, a global market leader in the automotive intelligence and data industry.

Toyota Corolla

Toyota Corolla remains the top-selling model with 930.347 sales, as presented by Focus2move. It is a line of subcompact and compact cars by a Japanese multinational automotive manufacturer, Toyota. The model was officially rolled onto the market in November 1966, and continued to evolve over the years.

Today’s generation of Corolla is equipped with Standard Toyota Safety Sense that features a Pre-Collision System with Pedestrian Detection and Lane Departure Alert with Steering Assist, among others. With features like Bi-LED headlights and available 17-inch alloy wheels, Corolla exudes an exceptional trademark on the road. It also offers a sporty interior with plenty of tech and style with an available sport gauge cluster, color Multi-Information Display, paddle shifters and Sport Mode.

Ford F-Series

From the third spot in 2016, the Ford F-Series advances to second place with 797.899 sales this year. Ford F-Series is the longest continuous single series produced by Ford Motor Company since 1948. The most popular version of the F-Series is the F-150 that now in its 13th generation.

The F-150 body, made of high-strength, military-grade, aluminum alloy, weighs up to 700 pounds, which is lighter than the previous generations. It is powered by the legendary Ford 5.0L V8 that features a direct-injection system and generates power ratings of 395 horsepower and 400 pound-feet of torque. Apart from its capability, F-150 also offers a broad range of features including the available integrated tailgate step, deployable box steps, 360-degree camera and SYNC3 with SYNC Connect.

Volkswagen Golf

With a total of 664.086 sales, Volkswagen Golf ranks third, according to Focus2move. It offers a stylish, sporty and endlessly iconic exterior enhanced by rear spoiler and panoramic sunroof. The Golf is carefully engineered to utilize all the space inside with its 60/40-split folding rear seats that can fold down easily.

Volkswagen Golf is also packed with high-end technology features for a great driving experience. It is equipped with available keyless access, which let the driver locks, unlocks, starts and drives the car without taking the keys on the pocket; Bluetooth technology with audio streaming that allows songs, playlists, podcasts and radio streaming; and SiriusXM Satellite Radio that brings music, live sports, news, talks, and hottest entertainment available.

Honda Civic

Honda Civic jumps up six spots from 10th to fourth place this year with 612.316 sales. Civic is a line of small cars that has gone several generation changes. Today, the new Honda Civic delivers an enhanced customer driving experience with its striking sporty design, powerful driving performance, advanced set of key technologies and innovations, and premium quality and upscale interior.

Honda Civic is tailored by putting safety as top priority. It has Electronic Parking Brake with Auto Brake Hold, which engages and disengages the parking brake with ease; Emergency Stop Signal that relays the message of panic and emergency stop to the drivers around; Walk Away Auto lock, a feature that automatically locks all the doors when the driver has moved more than 2.5 meters away from the car; and Anti-Lock Braking System with Electronic Brake Force Distribution that prevents the wheels from locking while braking hard.

Toyota RAV4

RAV4, the compact crossover SUV (sport utility vehicle) by Toyota, advances to fifth from seventh spot this year with 608.211 sales. The latest RAV4 exudes a sporty exterior with clean, modern and sleek body design, complemented by stylish rear bumper and unique wheel designs. RAV4’s interior is customized for maximum comfort with the available power-adjustable front seats and smart features.

For the driver’s peace of mind, the new RAV4 has available Blind Spot Monitor and Rear Cross-Traffic Alert that help identify vehicles when changing lanes or backing out a parking space. It is also equipped with six advanced safety features including Vehicle Stability Control, Traction Control, Anti-lock Brake System, Electronic Brake-force Distribution, Brake Assist and Smart Stop Technology; and eight airbags, provided up to driver’s knee and front passenger seat cushion. — Mark Louis F. Ferrolino

Notable cars, SUVs and pickups

Alongside the outstanding sustained growth of the Philippine economy during 2017, the country’s automotive market is enjoying a prosperous year with double-digit growth in sales and production. According to the ASEAN Automotive Federation data, the Philippines maintains its position as a leader in the markets of the seven countries in Southeast Asia, only behind Myanmar in terms of motor vehicle sales.

More Filipinos have the financial capability to purchase their first cars, and the Philippine automobile industry seems more than happy to provide them with a plethora of choices. We’ve compiled a list of the most notable cars, SUVs and pickup trucks this year.

Suzuki Swift

Discarding flash and spectacle in favor of keeping its design and silhouette distinct and impressionable, the Suzuki Swift is built for smooth sailing. Loaded with 1.2-cylinder four cylinder Variable Valve Timing engine alongside other premium features and thoughtfully designed comforts, driving in the Swift is a quiet, satisfying experience.

Mazda 2 SkyActiv

The striking KODO: Soul of Motion design is as elegant as ever in this year’s iteration of the popular Mazda 2. The car is not only designed for action with SKYACTIV with G-Vectoring Control technology, which gives it a high compression ratio to produce more torque and better responsiveness even at low revs, but is also coupled with the impressive fuel efficiency, engine power, and safety features that it has become known for. The newest Mazda 2 impresses with the responsiveness, maneuverability, efficiency, and power that anyone looking for a new car can appreciate.

Mitsubishi Montero Sport

One of the better releases for the year is the new 2017 Mitsubishi Montero Sport, which easily surpasses all the expectations set by its previous iteration. Classy and capable as ever, the newest iteration comes with improved features and a number of design tweaks. The sharp and futuristic aesthetic that gives off a dynamic and powerful presence, the first-of-its-kind Euro-4 compliant 2.4L Clean Diesel engine with Mitsubishi Innovative Valve Electronic Control system, and the roomy, comfortable interiors make the new Montero Sport the one of the best SUV options out there.

Isuzu D-Max

The newest refresh of the beloved workhorse from Isuzu came with the introduction of new features and new Blue Power Euro 4-compliant turbodiesel engines. Designed for practicality, the D-Max serves its intended purpose with a powerful, fuel-efficient, and eco-friendly engine perfect for modern traffic conditions, as well as innovative upgrades to its interior tech. The cabin has also been improved for maximum comfort and quietness. Isuzu offers those looking for a top of the line pickup truck with a trusty, able wagon that can meet any demand.

MG3

The newest iteration of Morris Garage’s city car builds around the model’s unique design, unveiling a tweaked sporty and stylishly built hatchback. The MG3 comes with a 1.5-liter gasoline engine that can run up to 105hp at 6,000rpm and 135Nm at 4,500rpm, and an improved interior packed with new tech. Marketed as an affordable and fun option for those shopping for a supermini, the MG3 delivers with style to spare.

Honda CR-V

With the company-given moniker of “The Sporty SUV,” the 2017 Honda CR-V comes with a distinctive design, from the headlights and taillights to the sculpted panels. The CR-V stands out as an SUV that caters to the general car-owning populace, with its comfortable and spacious cabin, and emphasis on practicality in its features. Its refined performance while on the road, in addition to its luxurious array of safety features, keeps the Honda CR-V among the best SUV options available. — Bjorn Biel M. Beltran

Noting the turning points

Despite the changing preferences and attitudes of Filipino car buyers, the Philippines’ automotive industry remains as one of the fastest-growing market in Southeast Asia. For the first nine months of the year, a total of 302,869 units were sold, a 15.9% higher than year-ago figure of 261,370 units. Given the good sales performance of key models and the plans to increase the excise tax on automobiles, vehicle sales within the year is expected to end strong.

The process of purchasing a car in the country has changed due to various factors and trends. The country’s lack of efficient mass transportation system has increased the desire of Filipinos to purchase a car, while the attractive loan programs and low down payments offered by financial institutions have made owning a car accessible.

In a study presented by the National Economic and Development Authority last year, 77% of Filipinos prefer to use their own car to travel to places than using public transportation. Filipinos want to be mobile, and owning a car is part of many families vision of their future.

With the burgeoning market, more banks invest in consumer loans and come up with different strategies to encourage Filipinos to purchase a car. To raise their share in the industry, they offer lower interest rates, attractive product offerings and freebies.

Access to automotive products and services online also contributes to the changing behavior of Filipinos. Instead of the traditional methods of personal contact to dealers and printed classifieds, some consumers tend to search about cars’ features in the Internet.

In a report by car trading Web site Carmudi about the changing trends in automotive search behavior of Filipinos, the most searched colors from 2014 to 2016 for new cars were white and silver/gray, interchangeably, while for used cars was silver/gray. The site said that their data clearly reflects the dealers’ feedback that neutral colors are the staple shades for Filipino buyers.

When searching for car condition, nearly 60% of all searches were focused on new cars from 2014 to 2015. Significant changes occurred from 2015 to 2016 as searches for used cars surged up to 82%, pushing new car searches down to 18%. Based on this data, it can be concluded that there is a growing interest in used cars or more conversion-centric searches with an intent to purchase, the site said.

In terms of car brand recognition, Hyundai was the most searched brand for new cars, followed by Toyota and Ford for the period of 2014 to 2015. A bit has changed for 2015 to 2016 as Toyota replaced Hyundai on the top search. For the used cars category, Toyota is still the most searched brands by Filipinos from 2014 to 2016.

“The reasons behind Toyota’s dominance in the market, according to these automotive industry insiders, is due to the brand’s high resale value, its competitive pricing, excellent fuel efficiency and reasonable maintenance costs,” Carmudi said.

For the body style, Carmudi said that based on its survey conducted to new and used car dealers, SUV is the dominant body style they sold to customers. As the site explained, SUV is popular to customers because it is spacious for the whole family, has a good safety records and excellent performance in difficult weather conditions such as flooding. — Mark Louis F. Ferrolino

Poll: Monetary policy stable as year ends

By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter

THE CENTRAL BANK will likely maintain policy settings when it meets on Thursday as inflation and liquidity remain manageable, notwithstanding mounting pressure from a US rate hike — the third this year — that is widely expected the day before, according to a BusinessWorld poll late last week.

Twelve economists asked on their expectations said the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will keep policy stance unchanged on Thursday — its eighth and final policy review for 2017 — which immediately follows the rate-setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.

BSP rates currently stand at 3.5% for the overnight lending rate, 3.0% for the overnight reverse repurchase rate and 2.5% for the overnight deposit rate.

‘NO COMPELLING REASON FOR A MOVE’
Analysts said current policy settings remain appropriate for local conditions, with the growth momentum seen intact and with inflation in November easing from a three-year peak.

“No compelling reason for a move either way at this time,” said Jose Mario I. Cuyegkeng, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila.

“Activity indicators continue to point to strong growth prospects in 4Q and in 2018. Inflation has moderated but the outlook faces some upside risks in 2018.”

Commodity prices picked up by 3.3% in November, slowing from the 3.5% logged a month ago. This kept the year-to-date average at 3.2%, matching the BSP’s forecast for the entire year and staying within the 2-4% target range for 2017.

On the other hand, economic growth remains brisk following a faster-than-expected 6.9% gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the third quarter that was fueled partly by a surge in government spending. This brought the nine-month pace to 6.7%, against a 6.5-7.5% growth goal.

For Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at the Union Bank of the Philippines, hitting the targets for inflation and economic expansion warrants maintenance of the policy status quo.

Capital Economics is even betting that the BSP will keep any policy move on hold throughout 2018, with monthly inflation expected to slow down.

The think tank also dismissed overheating fears for the Philippine economy.

“Credit growth, while fast, is concentrated in productive investment, which should actually improve the capacity of the economy over the medium term.”

Analysts expect the BSP to hold fire on any policy tweaks as the Fed is expected to introduce another rate hike during its Dec. 12-13 review, which would be the third 25-basis-point increase this year as part of its rate normalization plan.

“While economic conditions overall do not warrant policy tweaks yet, pressure is building from abroad on account of the US Federal Reserve’s tightening plans, which could result in added volatility in the market,” said Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan, market economist at the Land Bank of the Philippines.

He noted that the BSP could sit out until early 2018 before increasing rates.

The BSP has held policy steady since September 2014, save for procedural changes in June 2016 to pave the way for an interest rate corridor system designed to better siphon unwanted liquidity and influence market rates.

BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. has said that policy makers do not have to move in lock-step with the Fed’s tightening, pointing to domestic conditions as the biggest consideration for the Philippines’ central bank.

Victor A. Abola, economics professor at the University of Asia & the Pacific, said the BSP may consider raising interest rates and cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) between January and March – a move that will “offset the tightening” of monetary conditions.

Several observers have noted that the central bank may be looking to trim the 20% reserve requirement imposed on banks — which is among the highest in the world — before it considers raising borrowing rates.

Central bank officials have said that they are constantly monitoring money supply conditions to see whether the time is ripe for an RRR reduction.

“Even as the demand for the term deposit auctions declines, excess liquidity remains substantial. At 20.4% of GDP, excess liquidity continues to fuel credit creation despite the rise in average money market rates,” ANZ Research economist Eugenia Fabon Victorino said as she discounted the chances of an RRR cut this week.

Ildemarc C. Bautista, vice-president and head of research at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., said there is “no pressing need” to reduce the reserve level just yet, as additional money supply in the system could be inflationary.

Domestic liquidity expanded by 14.8% in October to hit P10.3 trillion, picking up from the 14.5% pace recorded the previous month, according to BSP data.

At the same time, credit growth clocked 19.9%, slowing from September’s 21.1%.

Banks’ exposure to property sector grows

BANKS hiked their exposure to the volatile property sector to breach the P2-trillion mark as of end-September as both real estate lending and investments surged, according to latest central bank data.

Total real estate exposure reached P2.006 trillion in the nine months to September, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). The amount is 17.9% more than the P1.702 trillion tallied in 2016’s comparable period and inched up from the P1.924 trillion recorded as of end-June.

Banks gave out more loans for home purchases and property development at P1.71 trillion, up from P1.451 trillion last year.

Lending for commercial property increased by a fifth to P1.124 trillion in the same periods, compared to a 15.6% increase in home loans to P585.51 billion, data showed.

House prices dropped by 4.6% between April and June — the first time in two years that property prices slid — according to results of the central bank’s latest residential real estate price index.

Central bank officials have noted that property prices remain “volatile” even as they assured that current levels, thus far, have not been alarming.

Despite the double-digit increases in borrowings, non-performing loans for real property were little changed at P29.436 billion, just 4.9% more than the P28.074 billion left unpaid at least a month after due date a year ago.

Still, the increase in real estate lending is slightly slower than the 19.6% increase in total loans granted by banks, which reached P8.39 trillion as of September.

Despite the growth in property lending, its share relative to banks’ total loan portfolio settled at 19.28%, down from the 20.79% ratio posted in end-June and a 21% share in the comparable year-ago period.

The BSP requires all banks to keep their real estate exposures to a maximum of 20% of total loans, as part of a risk management arsenal. The central bank has been closely monitoring the property market since the 1997 and the 2008 global economic crises, as mortgage delinquencies triggered a global recession following a correction in housing prices abroad.

Investments in property-related assets and securities also posted a 17.9% growth in September to reach P295.816 billion, coming from P250.903 billion a year ago.

Placements in debt instruments accounted for roughly two-thirds of banks’ total property exposure at P184.382 billion, while bets on property and developer-related shares totalled P111.434 billion, the BSP said.

Economists and property developers have allayed fears of a bubble in the Philippines, saying actual buoyant demand for both residential and commercial space — rather than mere speculation — has been driving prices up. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

Moves of three central banks to underline diverging fortunes

FRANKFURT — Three central banks, meeting on both sides of the Atlantic, will highlight the diverging fortunes of the world’s biggest economies as they head into 2018 after an exceptionally tranquil year.

While the growth cycle in the United States may be close to peaking, the euro zone is just getting comfortable with its economic run and Britain is weighed down by Brexit uncertainty, suggesting that their monetary policies will be out of sync for years to come.

Indeed, the US Federal Reserve is all but certain to raise rates on Wednesday — likely predicting three more hikes for next year — even as the European Central Bank (ECB) pledges on Thursday to maintain super-low borrowing costs and the Bank of England (BoE) promises only very gradual increases over the coming years.

The US economy will start the new year in the perfect spot but that would suggest that the only way is down, and a range of issues from uncertainty over tax cuts to midterm elections and high turnover atop the Fed, cloud the outlook.

“The music will keep playing for another year or so, but be wary of what is next,” BNP Paribas said.

“In 2018, we think the US economy will see its best year in terms of economic activity since 2005 with the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest level since 1969,” it added.

“The turn of the cycle is in sight. We see the recovery as long in the tooth and believe that cycles do die of old age.”

Indeed, the economy is likely to face capacity constraints as the labor market tightens, pushing core inflation to the Fed’s target and raising prospects of overheating if a tax proposal, now in Congress, substantially increases deficit spending.

A big tax cut under discussion would — potentially — boost growth, and likely push the Fed to tighten more quickly.

“Better growth would increase downward pressure on the unemployment rate and upward pressure on inflation,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

“Hence the Fed would respond with a modestly steeper path of monetary policy.”

The euro zone economy is in a similarly sweet spot but the growth cycle is still relatively young and only now beginning to broaden out so the ECB will remain reluctant to give up support.

“The ECB faces the best of the possible outlooks in years: the moderate expansion phase is set to continue in 2018 and 2019, with limited risks of a setback, absent signs of excesses in demand wages dynamics and in leverage,” Intesa Sanpaolo said in a research note.

The ECB is not in a hurry to alter communication both on asset purchases and interest rates,” it added. Indeed, after an October stimulus cut that actually loosened rather than tightened financial conditions, the ECB will likely say it is content with the reaction, suggesting it will not revisit its stance for some time.

It will also unveil initial 2020 inflation projections, which will likely show price growth at or just below target, rising only gradually over the coming three years, another argument not to take support away just yet.

Meanwhile, the BoE will have to tread a fine line between sounding like more rate hikes are coming and not squashing growth that economists think may slow to around 1.3% next year from 1.5% in 2017. Uncertainty over Brexit, low wage growth and weak productivity are weighing on the economy but the BoE is not keen to see the pound weaken and add to an inflation rate that is expected to exceed its two percent target over the next three years. While Britain appears to have cleared a key hurdle in Brexit talks and focus can now move to a discussion of a trade agreement, slow progress so far suggests that uncertainty will remain high and even if an eventual deal is likely, its terms will not be clear for some time.

“For the doves, there has been no shortage of weak data since November, particularly related to the consumer sector and housing market,” HSBC said in a note.

“The MPC seems minded to make another (hike), based more on weak supply growth than rising demand growth,” it added of BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee.

“After that, we expect a long pause while it assesses the impact of its policy moves and given our expectation that activity growth will stay soft and wage growth weak.” — Reuters

Ayala Land mulls options for health care business

By Arra B. Francia, Reporter

AYALA LAND, Inc. (ALI) is studying options on how to move forward with its hospital business, following reports it is selling its health care brand QualiMed.

“I think we’re currently studying the options,” ALI Chief Finance Officer Augusto Cesar D. Bengzon told reporters in Makati last week when asked if they plan to unload the hospital business.

The QualiMed brand is ALI’s partnership with Mercado General Hospital, Inc. It operates under three formats, namely mall-based multi-specialty clinics, stand-alone ambulatory or day surgery centers, and full-service hospitals.

The two companies launched the Qualimed brand last 2014, with a commitment to invest P5 billion in the next five years to build a chain of hospitals and satellite clinics, and also as a way for ALI to complete product offerings in its township developments. 

Asked how this would affect the QualiMed branches already open in ALI’s estates, Mr. Bengzon said there will be no material changes.

Nandun naman sila sa Atria, sa San Jose del Monte, Altaraza, then sa Nuvali. They can continue to locate in our estates, whether we own it or not. Because our estate is attractive to locators, since you already have a self-contained community,” he explained.

The ALI executive also noted the hospital business comprises less than 5% of the total asset size of ALI, so its contribution to revenues is negligible.

“Today it’s also negligible, the contribution. So I don’t see it as having a significant impact on our 2020 targets,” he said.

The property giant is currently trailing a “2020-40 plan,” which was unveiled in 2014. Under the program, ALI projects to deliver a net income of P40 billion by 2020, or a 20% annual average growth rate from 2013 until 2020. This comes on the back of its aggressive expansion of residential projects, office developments, hotel and resorts, and the optimization of the use of land bank.

The potential divestment from QualiMed follows ALI’s recent exit from convenience store chain FamilyMart, in favor of Davao-based businessman Dennis A. Uy.

ALI, together with SSI Group, Inc. and two other foreign partners, announced its sale of FamilyMart to Mr. Uy last October, who in turn said it would complement his oil and fuel business through Phoenix Petroleum Philippines, Inc.

“In the case of FamilyMart, we think the brand can grow more under Phoenix. I guess the synergy for them is the 500 gas stations,” Mr. Bengzon said, referring to Phoenix Petroleum’s 518 fuel stations nationwide.

The hospital and convenience stores are not part of what ALI considers to be its core business segments. 

ALI generated a net income of P17.8 billion in the nine months ending September, 18% higher year on year as it continues the expansion of its residential and office properties. Revenues, meanwhile, grew 16% to P98.9 billion for the nine-month period.