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E-vehicle industry sees 2018 as ‘tipping point’

By Victor V. Saulon
Sub-Editor
THE Electric Vehicle Association of the Philippines (EVAP) expects sales of electric jeepneys to hit 500 units this year, up from the 200 in 2017, with the group expecting a “tipping point” for the industry.
Rommel T. Juan, EVAP president, said the industry’s optimism is largely brought about by the public utility vehicle (PUV) modernization, which is expected to boost sales of the four-wheel electric vehicles after a slow start in recent years.
“Maybe by the end of the year, we’ll be able to release about 500 units,” he said in an interview. “There were only few units released last year, maybe less than 200.”
EVAP has 57 active members, most of whom are involved in local production, assembly, supply and distribution of electric vehicles and parts.
“This year is the tipping point, with the PUV modernization and the deployment of the DoE (Department of Energy) electric tricycles,” he said.
The Department of Transportation’s PUV modernization program has a target to upgrade around 200,000 public utility jeepneys in the next six years, about 10% of which will be electric jeepneys. To support the scheme, the Department of Trade and Industry and the Board of Investments are putting in place an Eco-PUV program to provide incentives to both the electric vehicle platform suppliers and body builders.
The DoE has committed to deploy around 1,600 to 1,700 units to the local governments of Marawi, Valenzuela, Muntinlupa, Las Piñas and Pateros. This will come from the 3,000 units that the government contracted with Japan’s Uzushio Electric Co. Ltd. and its local unit Bemac Electric Transportation Philippines, Inc. The rest of the units have not been committed but the DoE is considering a number of applications.
“In the automotive industry it has to be seen first. When you see the vehicles, that is when you would want to buy. The more vehicles we have on the road, the more demand will happen,” he said.
Mr. Juan said since the country started manufacturing electric-vehicles, a total of 5,000 have been produced by local vehicle makers, most of which are electric tricycles. He said about 15,000 electric motorcycles are imported each year on average.
He said the PUV modernization resulted in inquiries from dealers, who are fast-tracking the manufacture of electric jeepneys.
He said many members of EVAP are currently enjoying the income tax holiday being offered by the government, but the association continues to ask for tax- and duty-free importation of electric vehicles.
“Six, seven years that we’ve been pushing for it,” he said.
He said the 30% tariff on EVs is what the association is asking to be removed plus the import taxes and duties for vehicle parts such as the motor, controller, charger and batteries. If these incentives are given, he said EVs would be more competitive.
For instance, the cost of the Outlander model of Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. will go down to P2.5 million from the P3.4 million with the existing taxes, he said.
“In other countries, [the electric vehicle industry] is a highly subsidized industry and that is really the price you pay if you want to improve the environment and to promote low carbon initiatives of electric vehicles,” he said.

Synergy between the CFO and CEO

A mentor once said, to create value in an organization, the following must be present: strong leadership, strong partnerships that break organizational boundaries, and a perfect opportunity to exploit. In this article, we would like to discuss how a strong partnership between the CFO and the CEO can help companies adapt to the continually changing business landscape.
KEY ALLIES IN VALUE CREATION
When new opportunities and threats, such as digital, are transforming whole sectors and causing CEOs to question their strategy, operating model and team, CEOs need a firm ally and business partner by their side. One such partner is the CFO, who can be a strong advocate and support for growth. CFOs can be strategic advisors to the CEO, being aware of where the market and competition is heading.
Surprisingly though, in a survey of 652 CFOs across the world, EY found that while a majority of CFOs have increased collaboration with the CEOs and report greater involvement in corporate strategy driven by a focus on growth, CFOs still consider their most significant contribution as being cost discipline champions and managing budgets.
CFOs need to strike a balance between control and growth. They need to be able to display agility and flexibility — both personally and organizationally, as the organization’s strategy and economic situation evolve. Tony Klimas, EY Global Finance Performance Improvement Advisory Leader, has seen this tension at play in many organizations. In his experience, the CFOs that have successfully made the transition to business partner are those that have taken a step back from finance operations, and are focused on taking a strategic view on how they build and structure the finance function.
“To partner in a strategic way with the CEO, CFOs need to redefine the principles of the finance function,” Tony says. “Many CFOs have the will and the drive to be a business partner to the CEO, but the change just can’t come from them. They need to ensure the larger finance function has a balanced skill set that covers cost control, treasury, analytics and strategic forecasting. The CFO should be able to trust his finance leadership team and keep some distance from each of these activities in order to dedicate more time to collaborating with the CEO on strategic matters.”
For CFOs to maintain their role as a key ally to the CEO, CFOs must always be at the table during key discussions or asked for their input on strategic decisions. According to the same CFOs survey respondents, organizational boundaries and a lack of demand from CEOs for insight from finance into strategic issues are the top two barriers preventing a closer relationship between the CEO and the CFO.
The onus on the CFO to become a value creation-focused business partner to the CEO falls upon them both. So what does it take to become trusted allies? Commitment must be made by both parties to strengthen the CFO-CEO alliance:
• CFO commitment — Develop the right strategic skills and mind-set and build a finance function with the right balance of skills to give the finance leaders the breathing space to step away from the details.
• CEO commitment — Break down the organizational barriers that CFOs still perceive as barriers and rethink the contributions they require from their CFOs.
DRIVING AND ENABLING THE SHIFT TO DIGITAL
Digital technologies do not respect tradition. They destroy hierarchies, trample over sector boundaries, democratize information and make large, traditional businesses ask hard questions surrounding their own companies’ future and relevance. And digital technology is only just getting started. That said, CFOs and CEOs must develop a strategic response to external risks and opportunities and disrupt their own organization’s business and operating models. Both should know how digital can create new sources of value. Surprisingly, of the 652 CFOs surveyed, only 50% consider the shift to a digital business model to be a high or very high priority for their organization, and less than half feel they make a significant or very significant contribution to the shift to a digital business model. This suggests that CFOs have yet to recognize the impact digital is likely to have on their organization, or what their role is in positioning the organization to adapt and secure its relevance.
While many CFOs surveyed feel that digital sits outside their area of responsibility, they should realize that they can play an important role in championing and embedding digital within their organization. Some of the digital priorities that both the CFO and the CEO can work together on include:
1. Develop a business strategy that is fit for a digital world and make the disruptive investment calls required, including developing and managing a portfolio of digital investments with a variety of profiles, from quick wins to strategic bets.
2. Use data analytics to anticipate digital disruption, measure performance and respond quickly. CFOs are uniquely positioned to gather and analyze data from across the organization, which can provide an early warning indicator of any potential disruptive threats and opportunities. By sharing their insights, CFOs can help the CEO and the organization better develop strategic responses and consider pre-emptive changes to the business model in the face of increasing competition.
3.CFOs and CEOs can work together to create a governance framework that puts digital at the heart of the business, including management decision making. Currently, many organizations’ governance arrangements still do not take into account the digital economy. This includes assessing the readiness of the board for digital leadership, the overall digital talent pipeline and whether the existing digital capacity is enough to ignite digital business model innovation. Ruby Sharma, a Principal for the EY Center for Board Matters, says digital experience on the board can help guide management through changes in business models and disruptive forces.
4. Manage the tax, legal and regulatory risks of digital and support digital growth plans. It is absolutely important that CFOs, together with the Tax Directors, sit down with the CEO to explain how changes in the business model will transform their tax model. This will help ensure that risks are anticipated, while at the same time, help develop tax strategies that support digital growth ambitions. Not doing so poses greater controversy, including intense media and regulatory scrutiny and the risk of reputational damage.
As we can see, creating a powerful synergy between the CFO and the CEO, and potentially, other C-level executives, can redound positively on a business’ overall performance.
This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinion expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.
 
Rossana A. Fajardo is the Advisory Service Line Leader of SGV & Co.

How competitive is the Philippine economy today?

(Second of two parts)
In overall competitiveness, the Philippines is only better than Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar today. We have been overtaken by Vietnam and Indonesia in most competitive indicators in the last two years. This is not to say that the Philippines did not improve. We did, especially between the years 2010 to 2015. In the last two years, however, the rest of the region accelerated their reforms while the Philippines remained static given the disruption of the national elections and the period of adjustment of the new administration.
Having said that, let us now compare the state of the economy today versus how it was three years ago, before President Duterte took over.
Looking through the data, my immediate assessment is that the economy remains fundamentally strong, albeit showing cracks that could bite us in the back, if left unaddressed.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), per se, has been growing vigorously. It expanded by 6.9% in 2016, 6.7% in 2017, and 6.8% in the first quarter of 2018. It is worth noting that this is the first time since our post-liberation era that the Philippines has grown beyond 6.5% for ten consecutive quarters.
On the demand side, the drivers of the economy have been government consumption, capital formation, and consumer spending. The latter, however, has slowed down this year due to the rising prices of commodities.
On the supply side, the service sector expanded by 6.8% in 2017 and further to 7% in the first quarter of 2018. Industry grew by 7.3% in 2017 against 7.9% in 2018. These numbers are relevant as it shows the extent by which our industrial sector continues to grow faster than the service sector. It proves that the country’s manufacturing base is expanding and that industrialization is well on track.
Growth in agriculture remains dismal at 2.4% in 2017 and 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018.
Overall, GDP growth in 2017 was higher than the a 5.8% recorded in 2015. The average economic growth during the Aquino administration was 6.3%.
As a result of rapid economic expansion, per capita income has increased correspondingly. On a price adjusted viewpoint, it stood at $6,875 in 2015 and improved to $8,229 in 2017. In other words, the average income of the Filipino increased by 20% over two years.
Unemployment and underemployment rates have also improved. From 5.7% and 16.1% in 2015, respectively, to 6.3% and 18.5%, in 2017.
The improvement in the country’s unemployment position was a result of a corresponding rise in foreign direct investments and the jobs they created. From $6.64 billion in 2015, FDIs peaked to an all time high of $10.05 billion in 2017.
Investment in infrastructure is the centerpiece of the Duterte administration. The ratio of infrastructure spending to GDP improved from 4.3% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2017. Note, this is the first time in 50 years that the ratio breached the 5% level. If the intentions of the Duterte administration are to be fulfilled, spending on infrastructure will accelerate to over seven percent from 2019 to 2022.
TOXIC INFLATION
The otherwise rosy picture of the economy is negated by rising inflation. Last month, inflation peaked at 5.2%, bringing the first semester average to 4.3%. Inflation was negligible in 2015 at only 1.41%.
Last month was the fourth successive month in which inflation exceeded the BSP’s comfort zone of 2-4%. Spiking inflation is a result of the TRAIN Law and the higher taxes on fuel, automobiles and other commodities like sugary and alcoholic beverages, tobacco etc. This resulted in successive price increases in transport and logistics, electricity, food and beverages, clothing, housing, education and health care.
To deal with higher prices, households inevitably tap into their savings. This results in a drop in savings rates and available funds that would otherwise be used for investments, making the economy less productive.
High inflation also induces monetary authorities to increase interest rates, if only to temper it. This, in turn, makes credit more expensive for both manufacturers and service providers. The high cost of money will inevitably be passed on to the consumer through higher prices. Mortgage and consumer loans will also become more expensive, making it more difficult for people to purchase homes, cars, and appliances.
High interest rates mop up liquidity in the market. This dampens consumer spending and drags GDP.
For exporters, the high cost of money, logistics, and power make it more difficult for them to compete in the global marketplace. In fact, the steep decline of Philippine exports has already begun.
High inflation causes fluctuations in exchange rates. The continuous drop of the peso is testament to this. The volatility of the peso affects exports, imports, and business transaction across borders. It also breeds business uncertainty. Potential investors will think twice before investing in our shores given our unstable prices and erratic currency
High inflation has multiple toxic effects that can blunts the benefits of our 6%+ GDP growth.
RISING DEBT
Our rising debt is a cause for worry.
Public debt has increased from $115.6 billion in 2015, to $129.16 billion as of end-2017. Last week, government announced its plan to borrow a whopping $22.4 billion (P1.189 trillion) to finance its spending plan for 2019. This is on top of the $16.75 billion (P888.23 billion) it will borrow this year.
Public debt to GDP ratio was around 41% in 2015 and is likely to increase by at least three percentage points due to government’s increased borrowings. This is manageable should our balance of trade and current account be healthy. Problem is that both are deteriorating.
As of the end of 2017, the trade gap (exports minus imports) posted a deficit of $28.786 billion, the largest in our history. For the first five months of the year, the deficit was already at $15.77 billion. All indications show that Philippines is headed for a record breaking deficit of $30 billion this year.
Imports are growing in strides due to our need mineral fuel, as well as iron and steel used for government’s infrastructure program. We have also been importing massive amounts of equipment and machineries. All these are productive assets, which is a good thing.
However, our exports have not been growing at a pace that could help offset our mounting import bill. It has in fact decreased by 5%, year on year. Merchandise exports amounted to only $26.914 billion from January to May, a slide from $28.33 billion for the same period in last year. Government’s goal of increasing exports by nine percent is no longer attainable as our manufactures become less competitive.
The deficit is also widening in our current account (the balance of accounts that takes into consideration trade in goods, trade in services, investment incomes, and transfer payments). From a surplus of $601 million in 2015, we swung into deficit territory in 2017, clocking in -$2.52 billion. It is seen to worsen to $3.1 billion this year. OFW remittances, income from the IT-BPO and tourism as well as foreign direct investments are no longer enough to cover our forex expenditures.
Thus, we can expect the peso to weaken further.
There is nothing wrong with amassing debt, so long as you can pay for it. Problem is, our Gross International Reserves (GIR) have been deteriorating too. GIR is the amount of foreign currency deposits, bonds, gold and special drawing rights held by a country.
From a high of $86.12 billion in September 2016, it fell to $80.669 billion in end-2017 and plummeted further to just $77.68 billion last May. The recent decline is steep.
The Philippines is far from a debt crisis, but our rising debt levels coupled by our eroding current account and foreign reserves is a cause for worry.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The time of President Ramos saw the rise of the electronics industry. President Arroyo’s era is credited for the development of the IT-BPO industry. The Aquino administration ushered-in the resurgence of the manufacturing sector and public private partnerships. It is still unclear what industries the Duterte administration is championing.
Mind you, infrastructure development is not an industry — infrastructure is merely an enabler of industries.
The need to develop new industries is now more urgent than ever since our main foreign exchange earners are in jeopardy. In IT-BPO, artificial intelligence will soon replace voice-based business process outsourcing. More than a million call certain agents, and the revenues they generate, stand to be obliterated sooner than we think.
In electronics, there is now a generation of integrated circuits and semiconductors. Unless we attract the manufacturers of these technologies or provide incentives to our existing manufacturers to upgrade their facilities, the $32 billion annual revenues earned from this industry is bound to decline.
Simply put, we need to develop new export winners. Experts suggested that the Philippines can be competitive in agro-industrial products, shipbuilding, household appliances, and chemicals, among others. Whatever it is, the Department of Trade and Industry must work double time to develop these industries. We need new foreign exchange earners and we need them now, if only to remain economically solid.
This assessment of the economy should give us the right perspective as the President delivers his State of the Nation Address this week.
 
Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

Is there an Imperial Manila?

Is there an Imperial Manila? It sounds traitorous to call Manila “Imperial,” as if Manila were not Filipino but a state apart, like the foreign imperial colonizers that Filipinos — united as a people — fought against to win independence and recognition as one country and one nation.
Have we not purged ourselves of the factionalism and regionalism that almost thwarted the revolutionary fight for independence from Spain in 1898? We think we have cleansed ourselves of that, in 120 years of unified democratic self-governance. Noticeably, there is now much less of regional groupings and social identification as Visayan, Tagalog, Bicolano, Cebuano, Ilokano, etc., — and the more ready declaration is “I am Filipino.” That almost all Filipinos now speak the national language above the 185 languages of the Philippines identified in the Ethnologue (Languages of the World 18th ed., 2015) says we are a united people.
This derogatory name “Imperial Manila” is unfairly divisive at this time, when the country is just rising in the socio-political and economic world, at last to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other developing countries — after being called “The sick man of Asia” for the excessive foreign debts that fed the corruption in the 14 years of the Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship. It is painfully embarrassing that the pejorative title on the country’s political and economic center, Manila, should be inflicted upon it by the leader of the country — voted in as president by 16 million voters (29.4% of registered voters and 14.6% of all Filipinos).
“It (the current system) is an excuse for them (elitist politicians) to hang on to power in Imperial Manila. They have always been there in one single office, running the Philippines,” Rodrigo Duterte said in a speech during the election campaign (Agence France-Presse June 28, 2016). He promised to end the domination of “Imperial Manila” with a radical shift to federalism that he says is vital to fighting poverty and ending a deadly Muslim separatist insurgency (Ibid.).
After much to-and-fro on whether there shall be a Constitutional Convention of elected delegates as after the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution, or a Constitutional Assembly convened from among the current legislators, President Duterte instead formed a 22-member Consultative Committee (ConCom) to prepare a draft federal constitution (ABS-CBN News Feb 14, 2018). Former Chief Justice Reynato Puno, who penned the Freedom Constitution of the revolutionary government of President Corazon Aquino in February 1986 chairs the ConCom. The one other prominent member of the ConCom is former Senate President Aquilino Pimentel Jr., who was Local Government Secretary in Corazon Aquino’s presidency, and chief author of the Local Government Code of 1991. When asked what’s wrong with the 1986 Constitution that it has now to be radically changed, both professed that proliferate political dynasties must be dismantled as they and the other ConCom members also firmly believe that federalism will decentralize power from “Imperial Manila” (Ibid.).
In 144 days, the Concom submitted the proposed federal constitution to President Duterte (philstar.com July 9, 2018). The day after, the President approved the ConCom’s draft, except for his (Duterte’s) request that the transitory provisions should provide for an elected president during transition (BusinessWorld July 10, 2018).
Duterte is expected to endorse the draft to Congress during his third State of the Nation Address on July 23. Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said that the submission was a significant step in realizing Duterte’s goal of a shift to federalism (philstar.com July 9, 2018).
Is it federalism at all costs?
Even former Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who was released from detention for a pending plunder case, and who agrees with President Duterte on most other issues, said “the draft federal charter submitted by the Consultative Committee that was later approved by President Rodrigo Duterte is too big of a government…the cost of federalism would be too much for the Filipino people to bear…It will burden the people too much with taxes, and the economy I don’t think it can shoulder the cost of this huge government that is being proposed” (gmanewsonline July 13, 2018).
Benjamin R. Punongbayan, founder of Punongbayan & Araullo, one of the Philippines’ leading auditing firms analyzed “the current national taxes; the existing national debt, its refinancing, and greenfield borrowings; and the transfer of national assets to see how all these fall into place in federalism’s objective of giving the states freedom of action and of moving them away from the domineering authority of Imperial Manila” (“Federalism, Money, and Taxes,” BusinessWorld, Part 1: May 28; and Part 2: May 30, 2018).
Punongbayan brought out the predicament of businesses, specially businesses operating nationwide, in “establishing how a business entity’s revenue is recognized for each state and how the entity’s cost and expenses are allocated among its operations in the various states” (Ibid.).
For example: “where sales are initiated in one state and concluded when the sold goods are delivered to a user located in another state, there must be a clear rule as to which state the sales should be reported,” he said. While existing accounting standards may suggest treatments, these standards are entity-focused and not geography-focused. Recognition of income and expenses by businesses will be confused, under a federalist setup and the by-passing of “Imperial Manila” (as a central clearing house). Therefore, an applicable tax rule must be established to make the treatment clear, Punongbayan says. Income taxes, customs duties, value-added tax (VAT) and even the gross receipts taxes will have to be overhauled (Ibid.)
“There is really no need for federalism,” Punongbayan says. “The present unitary government can revise the national tax allocations such that it retains only what the national government needs and the balance allocated to the provinces on a fair basis” (Ibid.). Funny, but in the ConCom draft, taxes and fees to be collected by Federal Regions (Article XII — Fiscal Powers and Financial Administration) have been whittled down from earlier generous entitlements to only 11 local taxes already collected under existing Local Government administration rules. There’s no avoiding Imperial Manila.
I told you so, former Chief Justice Hilario Davide says. “All such goals and objectives can adequately and sufficiently be accomplished by merely, but effectively and efficiently implementing the relevant provisions of our present 1987 Constitution for strong local autonomy and decentralization” (BusinessWorld Nov. 22, 2017).
“A shift to federalism is a lethal experiment. A fatal leap. A plunge to death. A leap to hell,” Davide says.
 
Amelia H. C. Ylagan is a Doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.
ahcylagan@yahoo.com

Effects of fare control

Government has the tendency to throw its weight around, especially affecting people and private enterprises that it regulates. If players are deemed “friends” or crony of the administration in power, they enjoy kid-glove treatment, allowing them to get off lightly in terms of penalties and fines. Otherwise, if the players are outside the circle, they get hefty fines or threatened with closure.
When Uber was still operating in the Philippines, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) slapped it with multiple penalties: (a) Suspension of operation for about a month or two, (b) a fine of P190 million, and (c) required Uber to give allowances to their drivers while the suspension was in effect.
Taken together, these fines plus legal costs have been estimated to reach P500 million or higher, a huge amount.
Last week, the LTFRB fined Grab P10 million for charging two pesos per minute on trips taken by its passengers, saying that it didn’t approve these fees.
Meanwhile, passengers have agreed — and continue to agree — to pay for these fares, even before they take trips using ride-sharing platforms, including Grab.
If passengers are unable to afford ride-sharing services, they have the option to take regular taxis, UV expresses, or a combination of other modes of transport.
Most commuters have refrained from using ride-sharing services owing to their cost. Only about 2.7% of the total number of commuters use ride-sharing.
FARE CONTROL
The LTFRB uses two price control policies: (a) surge price control to twice the fare amount, which was later cut down to 1.5x, and (b) abolition of P2/minute charge as a mechanism to offset the big decline in (a).
We now try to show the effect of these two measures on both passengers and drivers.
In the graph below, Pm and Pc means Market Price and Controlled/Capped Price. Likewise, Qm and Qc means Market Quantity and Controlled/Capped Quantity.
Grab Fare Control
When there is no price control, when Pm prevails, passengers and drivers agree at point A and passengers get a ride soon, resulting in short waiting times.
When price control is imposed, when Pc prevails, those policies remove incentives of many drivers to go to high traffic areas to pick up passengers. This reduces the supply of drivers during the times when they are most needed and makes the supply curve shift from D1 to D2.
Passengers’ waiting times become longer, prompting some of them to take regular taxis — assuming these are readily available — or take multiple transport modes to reach their destinations.
So passengers’ demand curve also adjusts to the left, from D1 to D2. Only those desperate to get a ride-sharing service would stay and wait longer until a car arrives, and they meet at the new equilibrium or market-clearing price at point B.
The move from point A where Pm prevails to point B means movement from Qm to Qc. The difference between the two represents the unserved passengers and bookings, people who are forced to either take cabs or multiple rides.
Taking multiple rides is fine if one is wearing casual attire, or not carrying valuables such as laptops, documents, and cash, or not accompanying a child or an elderly person.
Are passengers given more “safe, convenient, affordable ride” at point B than point A?
If LTFRB Chairman Martin Delgra and party-list lawmaker Jericho Nograles are asked this question, very likely they will say: Yes.
After all, they have drivers and vehicles, all funded by taxpayers and are not subjected to long waits to get a ride.
If the ordinary passengers and ridesharing companies and their partner-drivers are asked, very likely they will say No. Passengers are forced to wait longer, even if they are willing to pay higher prices for their trips and drivers experience lower income.
FRANCHISE CONTROL
A related issue is the franchise control policy of LTFRB. It limits or puts a cap to total number of cars available for ridesharing platforms.
When Uber exited the region last April, it had 19,000 drivers in the Philippines but only 11,000 were absorbed by Grab because LTFRB did not accredit the remaining 8,000. This alone created a huge backlog in terms of getting rides.
If the LTFRB removes its franchise control policy, at least 10,000 new drivers and cars would be on the road.
That decision will help entrepreneurship and allow Filipino workers abroad to finally stay at home with their families.
The graph can also apply here.
No franchise control means the supply of cars will be at Qm and passengers and drivers can “meet” at point A. With franchise control, the supply of vehicles will be at Qc and the supply curve moves from S1 to S2.
Passengers will have longer waiting times under S2 and some will take other transportation services like regular taxi and multiple rides. So passenger demand will move from D1 to D2. The shift from Qm to Qc means more inconvenience, more unsafe passengers even if they have the extra money to pay for higher fares.
If government via LTFRB is sincere in helping the public get “safe, convenient, affordable rides,” it should remove its fare control and franchise control policies.
If LTFRB officials are retiring soon, they should aspire for goodwill from the passengers and ridesharing companies they are regulating. Retiring with ill will from the public is not a good way to leave.
 
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
minimalgovernment@gmail.com.

Flawed DoE assumption results in baseload bloat

Over the past four decades, solar photovoltaic (PV) prices have been dropping by an average of 9% per year. As a result, rooftop solar is the cheapest daytime source of electricity today in many countries.
In the Philippines, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from solar rooftops has gone below six pesos per kilowatt-hour, cheaper than any electric utility in the country.
While commercial systems have a solar conversion efficiency of around 20%, efficiencies in research labs already exceed 45%. As these research results are commercialized, we can expect prices to continue dropping in the coming years.
Thus, we face the happy prospect of even cheaper solar electricity in the future.
The entry of solar (and wind) plants in the electricity mix results in three distinct types of power plants:
• Variable plants (solar, wind) have no fuel costs. They produce additional kW-hours at no additional cost (zero marginal cost). For this reason, in mixed grids, their output is dispatched first. The country’s Renewable Energy Act recognizes this, thus, giving them priority in dispatch. However, these plants’ output varies with the weather. Thus, variables need the next type to take up the slack during cloudy or windless days.
• Flexible plants (batteries, hydro, biomass, gas turbines) take up this slack. They can be started up or shut down each day, or as needed. Operators can ramp their output up or down. The Department of Energy (DoE) calls them peaking or mid-range. Peaking plants operate only a few hours each day, during peak hours. Mid-range plants operate longer hours but still shut down daily, during periods of lowest demand. Except for hydro, flexibles tend to cost more to operate.
• Baseload plants (coal, nuclear) must run twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. Shutting them down frequently makes them very inefficient and raises their costs unacceptably. Like the variables, baseloads also need flexible plants on standby but for a different reason — since baseloads must run 24/7, they are only good for loads that are also 24/7. This is called the base (i.e., minimum) load. As soon as demand exceeds the minimum, flexible plants have to come online to take up the slack. As long as they run 24/7, baseload plants have low average costs. For this reason, they got dispatched first in the past. Today, zero-marginal cost plants get higher priority.
In a nut shell, cost determines dispatch priority: zero-marginal cost variables come first; low average cost baseloads come next. Flexibles take up the slack during cloudy or windless days, at night when the demand exceeds the baseload, and when no cheaper solar, wind, or baseload outputs can be dispatched.
Solar Capacity @ 10%, 30%, 50% of peak
HOW SOLAR GROWTH AFFECTS THE ELECTRICITY MIX
Electricity consumption follows a general, predictable, 24-hour pattern with two peaks — a daytime peak around 1-2 pm, and a nighttime peak around 7-9 pm. In highly urbanized areas during weekdays, the daytime peak is higher than the nighttime peak. Otherwise, the nighttime peak is higher. Either way, the baseload usually occurs around 3-4 am. The top curve in Figure 1 shows this pattern. The highest solar output coincides roughly with the daytime peak.
Grid operators must dispatch power plant outputs so that supply equals demand at all times, while keeping costs as low as possible.
Consider the first scenario (Figure 1). As solar share (orange) rises from zero to 10%, it is displacing flexible plants (green). Since solar is cheaper, this is also pulling electricity prices down. The 70% capacity share of baseloads (gray, blue) is unaffected.
In the second scenario (Figure 2, 30% solar), something significant has happened. The midday solar output is so high that the residual demand (total demand minus solar output) is now lowest at midday. The baseload has shifted from early morning to midday. Also, the baseload is now slightly lower, from 70% to around 63%. Solar is now displacing baseload plants too.
In the third scenario, with solar at 50% of peak demand, baseload share shrinks further to 43%.
THE FUTURE NEEDS MORE FLEXIBILITY, LESS BASELOAD
As the solar share in the mix rises, flexible plants are affected first and their role diminishes.
But as the solar share increases from 20% to 25%, baseload plants are affected next. At 50% solar, baseload share shrinks to 43%. At 70% solar, baseload requirement will only be 23%. At 90% solar, we will need only a few baseloads.
With the baseload share shrinking, the nighttime demand baseloads used to cover must then be met by flexibles. Beyond 25% solar, the role of flexible plants increases steadily. (Email rverzola@gn.apc.org for the full 0-100% simulation.)
Why is this trend so important?
First, because it is inevitable.
As solar prices drop, solar growth will become increasingly market-driven. People will simply decide to solarize their rooftops.
Second, because the DoE remains inexplicably blind to this trend.
DoE’s Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) 2016-2040 still assumes 70% baseload share until 2040.
Assuming 50% solar by 2040, for instance, means a baseload share in the capacity mix of 43%, not 70%, by 2040. DoE’s flawed assumption overestimates the country’s baseload requirement by 63% (70 divided by 43, minus 1), creating a huge bloat in its baseload plans.
DoE’s PEP 2016-2040 includes three more serious flaws, further raising the baseload bloat to more than 100%.
This baseload bloat will lead to stranded assets in the future because those recently constructed coal and nuclear plants will be unable to sell half of their output. The fossil industry, as in the past, will surely try to pass on the cost of these stranded assets to the consumer.
Why buy expensive, dirty electricity from the grid when we can produce cheap, clean electricity from our rooftops?
The next piece will explain the DoE plan’s three other flaws.
 
Roberto Verzola studied electrical engineering and economics in UP. The German foundation Friedrich Ebert Stiftung published in 2017 his book Crossing Over: The Energy Transition to Renewable Electricity (second edition, PDF is online). He is currently president of the non-profit Center for Renewable Energy and Sustainable Technology (CREST).

SWS: 81% against gov’t policy on Chinese intrusion

FOUR of five Filipinos or 81% of respondents polled reject the government’s policy of allowing Chinese intrusion in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), the Social Weather Stations found in its Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey.
The survey also found net trust in China falling 42 points and two grades to “bad” -35, from neutral +7 in March.
The non-commissioned survey comes a few days after the Philippines marked on July 12 its second year since winning the Hague arbitration case in its maritime dispute with China.
The poll also found 80% of respondents agreeing that the government should strengthen the Philippine military, particularly the Navy.
The survey reported 74% wanting to bring this issue to international organizations such as the United Nations or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a diplomatic and peaceful negotiation with China.
“Seventy-three percent (73%) said it is alright to have direct, bilateral negotiations between the Philippines and China to discuss the resolution of the issue of the claimed territories,” the poll also found, while 68% said the government should ask other countries to mediate in this matter.
The poll further showed China’s net trust rating at a “bad” -38 among those who were aware of the West Philippine Sea dispute. “The net trust rating of China was at bad levels regardless of people’s satisfaction with Pres(ident) Duterte: it was highest among those who were dissatisfied with the President, at -42, followed by those who were undecided, at -39, and among those who were satisfied with him, at -32,” SWS said.
The survey was conducted from June 27 to 30, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults nationwide: 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, with sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±6% each for the said areas.
DAVIDE’S CRITICISM
In a related development, the Consultative Committee to Review the 1987 Constitution (ConCom) criticized retired chief justice Hilario G. Davide, Jr.’s recent remarks about the draft federal charter.
Mr. Davide over the weekend criticized the draft charter’s not citing the West Philippine Sea in its proposed Article I on national territory. He also criticized the draft charter for being “anti-Filipino,” “anti-poor,” and “pro-dynasty.”
ConCom in its statement on Sunday said Mr. Davide “betrays his confusion, lack of sincerity and lack of logic in the on-going debate on the proposal to revise the 1987 Constitution.”
Said the Concom: “The 1986 Constitutional Commission had the chance to put the words ‘West Philippine Sea’ or ‘South China Sea’ (we didn’t call it West Philippine Sea then). They did not. They did not make any loose reference to it even in the way the Article is phrased in the 1987 Constitution. They only talked of sovereignty over territory. And they abandoned the Philippine claim to Sabah, which has existed in previous constitutions.”
Mr. Davide was a member of the said commission, as the ConCom also noted.
“The ConCom draft contains in the Bill of Rights the right of the people to adequate food, decent housing, complete education, comprehensive health care, and livelihood and employment opportunities. These rights are meant for the poor,” ConCom also said regarding the “anti-poor” charge.
“By putting these in the Bill of Rights, they become demandable from the State, from the government; and the government is mandated to adopt measures and programs toward the PROGRESSIVE realization of these rights. It means that the government must — year after year — adopt comprehensive programs in these areas and increase its budget for them so that the number of Filipinos who go hungry, who have no roof over their heads, who are uneducated, who die without seeing the eye of a doctor, who have no jobs or means to have income will be reduced.”
ConCom further noted: “The ConCom draft contains self-executory provisions banning political dynasties, defining the coverage up to second-degree of relations by blood or marriage, prohibiting succession at all levels from he president to barangay kagawad, and prohibiting running or holding more than one position except one national and one regional or local position — which means of the 295 political dynasties and of the 25 million families, there will be only two families that can have not more than two positions — the family of the president and the vice-president. All others will have only one position.”
“The 1987 Constitution has one-sentence provision that leaves it up to the Congress to pass an anti-dynasty law. After 32 years, the Congress — created by the 1987 Constitution that allowed dynasties to proliferate and control the Congress — has not passed an anti-dynasty law,” the body also said.
NO RUSH
For his part, Senate Minority Leader Franklin M. Drilon said on Sunday the so-called “no-election” scenario in 2019 may pave the way for the President to appoint every mayor, governor, congressman, and even senators.
“Because there is no holdover provision in the Constitution. The officials who were elected last May 2016 elections will have to vacate their posts by June 30 of next year as provided for in the Constitution,” he said in a statement.
He said the President’s appointing powers were already upheld by the Supreme Court (SC) in the case of the postponed 2011 Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) elections. Hence, the President can extend government officials’ terms or appoint their replacement, the senator added.
The SC in 2011 declared constitutional Republic Act 10153 or the law synchronizing the 2011 ARMM elections to the 2013 regular elections. The law also allowed the President to appoint officers-in-charge for the positions of ARMM regional governor, vice-governor, and members of the regional legislative assembly until officials are duly elected in the 2013 polls.
Mr. Drilon then appealed to Congress not to rush Charter change, saying that such moves are being used to postpone the 2019 midterm elections.
“Congress should not be rushed into amending the Constitution to pave the way for federalism. Amending our Charter is not like passing an ordinary legislation. It is much harder than that. It requires comprehensive studies and deliberations. There a lot of imponderables and implications that can affect our people of today,” he said. —reports by Charmaine A. Tadalan, Gillian M. Cortez, and Camille A. Aguinaldo
Trust in China SWS Survey

Senate panel to monitor social measures in TRAIN

THE Senate committee on public services will resume its regional inquiry on Wednesday, July 18, into the effects of the tax reform law on public services and utilities in Cagayan De Oro City, Misamis Oriental.
In a statement on Sunday, committee chair Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares said she will seek updates from the Department of Transportation (DoTr) if it has delivered on its promise to implement its fuel vouchers program to jeepney drivers.
“We want to know about the process of distributing of the vouchers to public utility jeep operators, the government assistance due to increase prices of gasoline, and the added four million family-beneficiaries under the government’s unconditional cash transfer,” she said in a statement.
“We need to hear if the promise of the DoTr to give subsidies is true or beneficiaries, especially drivers in Mindanao(,) haven’t received it yet. What is important is helping out our fellow citizens now,” she added.
Officials from the DoTr, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Department of Finance (DoF), Department of Energy (DoE) were invited to the hearing. Also expected to attend are Cagayan de Oro City Mayor Oscar S. Moreno, Vice-Mayor Raineir Joaquin Uy, and Mindanao transport leaders.
Malacañang earlier assured that the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) and the DoTr will fully implement the social mitigating measures provided under the TRAIN law in July.
The Senate panel will also tackle various measures seeking to create district offices of the Land Transportation Office in Mindanao and franchise applications of local broadcast stations.
Ms. Llamanzares’ Senate panel earlier held public hearings in Iloilo City, Iloilo, and Legazpi, Albay.
Republic Act 10963 or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law provides social mitigating measures for Filipinos to cope with inflation, such as unconditional cash transfer, fuel vouchers for jeepney franchise holders, rice discounts and 10% transportation fare discounts for minimum-wage earners, and free skills training from the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA). — Camille A. Aguinaldo

Sabah not part of agenda in Duterte’s talks with Mahathir

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Reporter
MALACAÑANG on Sunday said it is unlikely that President Rodrigo R. Duterte will bring up the Philippines’ long-standing claims over the state of Sabah during his meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad in Kuala Lumpur Monday, July 16.
“Probably not,” Presidential Spokesperson Harry L. Roque, Jr. said in a Viber message on Sunday afternoon, July 15, when asked if Mr. Duterte will discuss the Philippines’ claims over Sabah with Mr. Mahathir considering now that the consultative committee’s (ConCom) proposed federal constitution strengthens the Philippines’ long-standing claim to the territory of North Borneo.
Mr. Roque said last week that Mr. Duterte was scheduled to meet with Mr. Mahathir after the fight of Senator and boxing champ Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao on Sunday in Kuala Lumpur.
“[I] had [a] telephone talk with [Mr.] Mahathir before Cabinet meeting. He wants to talk about insurgency and ISIS. We will be there July 16. After the boxing, [I] will talk with Mahathir,” Mr. Duterte said, as posted by Mr. Roque on his official Twitter account on July 9.
In the National Territory article under the proposed federal constitution, the Philippines’ sovereignty would consist of “the islands and waters encompassed by its archipelagic baselines, its territorial sea and its airspace,” in accordance with the “laws of the federal republic, the law of nations, and judgments of competent international courts or tribunals.” It also included territories that belong to the country by “historic right or legal title,” which was a provision of the 1973 Constitution, but excised from the present Constitution.
Malaysian Foreign Affairs Minister Anifah Aman, in a statement on Jan. 31, maintained Malaysia’s territorial claim over Sabah. “The Government of Malaysia reiterates its position that Malaysia does not recognize and will not entertain any claims by any party on Sabah. Sabah is recognized by the United Nations (UN) and the international community as part of Malaysia since the formation of the Federation in 16 Sept. 1963,” he said.
In an interview with ConCom member and former Senate president Aquilino Q. Pimentel, Jr. last February, he said: “All I’m saying is that is the position of Malaysia. We will contest it, but in a friendly manner. There is no need to go to war and be angry with one another.”
A report by the late journalist and lawyer Napoleon G. Rama of the Philippines Free Press on Dec. 30, 1961, prompted the Philippine government back then, on the watch of President Diosdado P. Macapagal, to pursue the country’s Sabah claim. The report went back in history to recount the Sultanate of Brunei’s ceding Borneo to the Sultanate of Sulu in 1850 following the latter’s assistance in quelling a rebellion in Brunei.
Mr. Rama also said that in 1878, the “Sultan of Sulu entered into an agreement with Alfred Dent and Baron von Overbeck, two adventurers who pioneered in colonizing and carpet-bagging in the southern island. The British say the agreement ceded North Borneo in perpetuity. The heirs of the Sultan of Sulu say it was merely a lease contract calling for a yearly rental of $5,000.”
“The British copy of the contract in question holds that North Borneo was ‘ceded in perpetuity.’ The heirs of the Sultan of Sulu swear that there was no such giveaway condition in the original contract. The British copy, they say, was a spurious document — a forgery,” the report said.
The Sabah question became a contentious issue as late as 2013 when heirs of the Sulu Sultanate led a standoff in the territory.

Localized peace talks could be ‘money-making scheme’ for LGUs, security forces, says Zarate

HOLDING LOCALIZED peace talks may be a “money-making scheme” for local government units (LGUs), Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and Philippine National Police, a left-leaning lawmaker said, Sunday.
“A classic case in point is what the AFP did with the P192.5 million PAyapa at MAsaganang PamayaNAn (PAMANA) program in Maguindanao that had been released in 2012 for supposed road projects under the unconstitutional Disbursement Acceleration Program but have remained unimplemented,” Bayan Muna Representative Carlos Isagani T. Zarate said in a statement.
“These types of anomalies along with the collection of bounty for fake surrenderees would become rampant with the supposed localization of peace talks,” he said.
According to Mr. Zarate, Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus G. Dureza has already requested the AFP to return the P192.5-million fund, which was supposed to be used for the Lamud-Ganassi-Biarong road in the municipality of South Upi and the Makir-Sibuto-Kinabaka road in the municipality of Datu Odin Sinsuat.
In addition, the lawmaker also cited as example another scheme, wherein the Department of National Defense and Department of Interior and Local Government placed a reward of P466.88 million on alleged “235 wanted communists” during the time of former President Benigno S. C. Aquino III.
“Ganito din ang nangyari sa mga nakaraang administrasyon na gumagamit ng mga Order of Battle o hit list laban sa mga aktibista at mga kritiko ng gobyerno (The same thing happened during the past administration, which used an Order of Battle or hit list against activists and government critics),” Mr. Zarate said. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

PDP-Laban stalwarts off to North Korea, to ink agreement with Workers' Party

FOUR members of the ruling Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) are set to visit the North Korean political party Workers’ Party of Korea this week in Pyongyang.
In a statement on Sunday, PDP-Laban Vice-President for International Affairs and Presidential Adviser for Northern Luzon Raul L. Lambino said the two political parties will sign a memorandum of understanding “affirming their friendship and promoting greater understanding and more meaningful party-to-party talks in the future.”
The delegation is composed of former Eastern Samar governor and PD- Laban Vice-President for Visayas Lutgardo B. Barbo, PDP-Laban Public Information Committee chairman Ronwald F. Munsayac, PDP-Laban Public Information Committee vice-chairman Raymundo Roquero, and PDP-Laban member Evan Rebadulla.
Senator Aquilino Martin L. Pimentel III said the three-day mission from July 18 to 20 is “the historic starting point of a new dynamic relationship with the Workers’Party of Korea.”
The political party also said the trip was arranged as early as one year ago following a series of correspondence with WPK Vice Chairman and International Department Director Ri Su Yong.
“This is strictly a party-to-party diplomacy. The invitation was extended to us months ago, and we feel that this visit could not have come at a better time. We are hoping that this ground-breaking initiative will open new doors for further talks, and new opportunities for a more meaningful relationship between our two peoples,” Mr. Lambino said. — Camille A. Aguinaldo

PCG Aviation Force ferries stranded visitors, dengue patients in Batanes

A TEAM from the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Aviation Force, who were on a Maritime Domain Awareness Flight from July 4-8, ended up providing evacuation and ferry services to 81 people in the remote islands of Itbayat and Basco in Batanes. In a statement, the PCG Aviation Force said the team, headed by Lt. Frederick Gacasa, paid a courtesy call to Batanes Governor Marilou H. Cayco, who informed them that there were a number of locals from Itbayat who have been stranded in Basco due to Typhoon Florita. They attended the celebration of Batanes Day last June 26. At the same time, there was also a dengue outbreak in Itbayat and several affected patients urgently needed to be transported to Basco, where there is a bigger medical facility. The PCG Aviation Force 251 then conducted six medical evacuation and ferry missions between the two islands. A total of 59 adults and 23 children were transported.

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