By Vince Angelo C. Ferreras
ANALYSTS agreed with the call of Defense Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana to review the decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, a move that is seen to help with the Philippines’ future agreements with other countries.
“…What Defense Secretary Lorenzana wanted to happen is to make the military agreement, this treaty to be more specific so not in any other way jeopardize our future mutual defense treaty with other countries. If we look at the mutual defense treaty, it is purely general and we have to remember, the government is now pursuing interdependent military and diplomatic relationship with other countries,” said University of Santo Tomas (UST) political science professor Marlon M. Villarin in a phone interview with BusinessWorld last Dec. 29.
“Of course the President and Defense Secretary Lorenzana wanted to make our defense treaty and alliance with the US to be more specific so as not put a cloud of doubts in the events that we will enter into another mutual defense treaty with another country,” he added, citing Russia in particular as one of these nations.
Meanwhile, Ateneo Policy Center research fellow Michael Henry LI. Yusingco said the review of the treaty is reasonable given the threats of terrorism in the country.
“The fact is, there are threats to our national security now, such as terrorism, which were not considered when the mutual defense treaty was agreed upon. The geo-politics of Asia was vastly different as well. So the call for review is only reasonable. Undertaking the review should be an utmost priority,” said Mr. Yusingco via email to BusinessWorld last Dec. 29.
He added in a separate phone interview on the same day, “‘Yung (That) treaty kasi when that was agreed upon, on my personal view, they were only contemplating acts of aggression by states. Kung halimbawa lusubin tayo ng ISIS, hindi naman siya state (If, for example, the ISIS attacks us, that’s not a state). So therefore, there is a question if the mutual defense treaty will apply.”
MORE VULNERABLE
But while analysts agree with Mr. Lorenzana’s call for review, they said that scrapping the treaty will only make the Philippines vulnerable to threats.
Last Dec. 28, Mr. Lorenzana hinted at the possibility of scrapping the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty if the review will find it irrelevant in today’s national interest.
“That was done in 1951, there was this raging Cold War. Do we still have a Cold War today? Is it still relevant to our security. Baka hindi na?” Mr. Lorenzana said during a press briefing at the Malacañang.
Foreign policy expert and political analyst Richard J. Heydarian said the alliance with the US also benefits the Philippines in disaster response.
“It is our biggest important insurance…Without an alliance, I don’t think we are in the condition to respond to Haiyan-like kind of tragedy….You can raise doubt on their stand about the South China Sea, but I think there is a little doubt to raise on their help in counterterrorism…not to mention the long standing training of Filipino troops, Filipino officers, provision of high grade equipment and of course intelligence,” he said in a phone interview with BusinessWorld on last Dec. 29.
He added, “So I think realistically there is no reason for this administration to scrap the alliance, because at this point of time, we cannot stand on our own yet. Let’s just be brutally honest about that….What is happening in the South China Sea and the Marawi incident that happened, only shows how vulnerable our country to external threats.”
Mr. Villarin shared the same sentiment: “Of course, number one it may politically affect the military strength and defense of the Philippines. We need to remember that we need the US… It is our way of guaranteeing our defense security.”
Mr. Villarin further said, “Also, we have to remember that the Mutual Defense Treaty, marami na tayong napakinabangan dito (We have benefited a lot from it). It gives the government an alternative way of strengthening and making our Armed Forces of the Philippines capable of providing security to our country. It gives us a window of opportunity to make progressive change in services of our armed services.”
For his part, UST Political Science Department chairperson Dennis C. Coronacion said scrapping the treaty might be impossible, but should it happen, the country would be left open to attack.
“Malabo mangyari ‘yun (That’s impossible to happen). But, hypothetically speaking, that would leave us open to attack by a foreign power,” said Mr. Coronacion in an online interview with BusinessWorld on Dec. 29 .
“Since our military doesn’t have the capacity for external defense, yes, the MDT is deemed essential for our security,” said Mr. Coronacion, “Kasi nga (Because) after several decades, wala pa rin tayong (we do not have) external defense capacity. That’s why we still rely on the protection provided by the United States.”
Mr. Yusingco suggested that the treaty could be amended or replaced instead.
“Again, the decision need not be to scrap it all together,” he said.
Analysts also believe that the motive of Mr. Lorenzana in announcing the possibility of scrapping the alliance is to seek assurance from the US on its commitment with the Philippines.
“What Defense Secretary Lorenza wanted to make an impression (on) is if the US is really sincere about their commitment in strengthening their alliance, political and military alliance with the Philippines,” said Mr. Villarin.
Mr. Coronacion also said, “The only possible motive of Secretary Lorenzana for saying those words about scrapping the MDT if it wouldn’t be modified to address our needs today is to seek assurance from the US that it is firmly committed to the alliance.”