The Coma Scare

LAST WEEK, communist leader Joma Sison announced that President Duterte had slipped into a coma. This followed an evening spent with the Lex Talionis fraternity where the President was allegedly ashen in color and visibly weak.
As expected, Presidential Spokesman Harry Roque denied the allegation and brushed off the rumor as preposterous. However, the President’s absence from public view the whole day caused a flurry of speculation.
This led me to reflect upon the Duterte presidency and what legacies it would leave behind if, indeed, the President were incapacitated.
My thoughts brought me back to 2016 and I remembered how expectations could not be higher for the Duterte administration. After all, the President presented himself as a strongman with unbendable political will. He promised to solve criminality and install peace and order in the land. He promised to stamp out corruption in government, eliminate nepotism and partisan politics. He promised to usher in a golden age of infrastructure and presented 75 keystone projects that would put the Philippines at par with the ASEAN 5, infrastructure-wise.
He sounded the alarm on the illegal drug trade and made it his personal advocacy. To this, he promised to rid the country of users, pushers, manufacturers and smugglers within three months.
His promises ticked all the boxes. With it, President Duterte broke all records of public approval with a rating of nearly 90%. The country was bursting with optimism.
THE DRUG WAR
Where are we, two years after?
We now realize that the drug problem was magnified to something far worse than what it truly was. Sure, a drug problem existed, but by no means was it as pervasive as that of Colombia or the golden triangle (Myanmar, Laos, Thailand) back in the ’80s. It will be recalled that these nations operated fully integrated narcotics industries, growing their own cannabis and coca plants, processing them to a finished product and exporting them worldwide through underground channels.
The Philippines does not operate in the same scope or scale. If anything, we are only a manufacturing base for drug lords using raw materials smuggled from China. We are transshipment point with a sizable and alarming number of users.
There is a blackout on statistics on the narcotic trade so there is no way for me to substantiate my claims with hard data. However, I dare say that while the use of illegal narcotics is prevalent, it is not as serious as mass poverty, growing illiteracy, income inequality and corruption in government.
I believe the drug problem was hyped up to crisis proportions to justify the President’s management style and use of extrajudicial methods. Think about it — a strongman is only relevant in a crisis narrative.
That said, the menace that was promised to be solved in three months remains unresolved two years later. By the President’s own admission, it looks like it will not be solved even by 2022.
Fear is the primary tool used by the government to solve the drug problem. Unfortunately, extrajudicial killings of small-time users and pushers have proved ineffective to spook most drug lords from carrying out their trade. It has become apparent that drug lords operate on a higher echelon, having connections in high places in government.
Clearly, there are missing components in the government’s approach. I reckon them to be institutional empowerment and political will.
Institutional empowerment involves reinforcing the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, the Bureau of Customs, and the Philippine National Police with more manpower, logistics capacities, intelligence and hardware to carry out their job more efficiently. It also necessitates giving more scope and teeth to R.A 9165, the Dangerous Drugs Act. Political will, on the other hand, calls for the resolve to arrest political allies, friends from “beloved” China and even relatives.
Management by fear is only effective for as long as the tormentors exists. Institutional reforms transcend generations.
The war on drugs is far from over and it is not too late to fill the missing pieces.
A WEAKENING ECONOMY
Earlier this month, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) announced that GDP growth for the first quarter had to be adjusted downward from 6.8% to 6.6%, while second quarter growth was a disappointing 6%. Growth figures fall short of government’s 7% target.
The reason for the slowdown is the quadruple whammy of declining merchandise exports which contracted by 3.8%; decelerating growth in service exports (BPOs), which slowed down from 16.4% in the first quarter to just 9.6% in the second; a softening of consumer spending due to rising inflation; and lower-than-expected government spending due to delays in the “Build, Build, Build” program.
The BPO industry is decelerating due to the withdrawal of tax incentives following the government’s tax reform initiatives. Manufacturing exports have been on a downward spiral due to softening global demand for electronics and our inability to develop alternative export winners. Not even the devaluating peso has helped our export industries.
Mind you, even OFW remittances are on a downward trend.
The specter of declining merchandise exports and a decelerating BPO industry should worry us all. They are important dollar earners that keep the economy afloat. Their recent decline has already caused our balance of payments deficit to balloon to $3.71 billion, a whopping 168% higher than what it was last year.
A balance of payments deficit means we are spending more foreign exchange than we are earning. When this happens, either we are left with less reserves in our treasury or we fall deeper into debt. As it stands, our Gross International Reserves have already plunged from a high of $86.12 billion in 2016 to just $77.68 billion last May, the lowest in three years.
The economy needs to be fired up and government’s “Build, Build, Build” program is suppose to do that. Problem is, the DoTr and the DPWH have been unable to commence construction according to the timetable set. Even Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez expressed doubt over their ability to deliver even half of the 75 projects by 2022.
Standing in the way of most infrastructure project are right of way issues. Landowners intentionally stall infrastructure projects through the courts, to get better-than-market value for their land. This is economic sabotage and where the President’s strongman tactics should come into play. If the President can iron out right-of-way issues, there is a good chance most infrastructure projects can proceed. It will be the boost the economy needs.
CORRUPTION IN GOVERNMENT
I believe the President is sincere in his intent to stamp out corruption in government. His frustration was obvious especially in the recent incidents involving former tourism secretary Wanda Teo and Nayong Pilipino Foundation chairwoman Patricia Ocampo. The fact that he immediately accepted their resignation was a welcome development.
We are not lacking in laws and institutional safeguards. R.A. 3019 or the Anti Graft and Corruption Practices Act is extensive enough. The lingering presence of the Commission on Audit, Ombudsman and Sandiganbayan provide sufficient checks, balances and legal recourses to deter incidences of corruption. Why, then, does corruption persist?
The root of corruption is attitudinal, perhaps even cultural. Corruption is so ingrained in our system that government officials have become calloused to dishonesty. They believe, wrongly, that their position entitles them to special privileges. Worse, there is an unspoken code of secrecy among those in government for fear that their own abuses be exposed.
At this point, mere threats from the President are no longer enough to correct this cultural flaw. The President needs to discipline his officials like a father would his black-sheep children. The goal is to instill a sense of decency, honor, and honesty in government service.
This can be done by clearly defining his rules, values, and code of conduct. Special treatment of friends and political allies should not occur. He must make his displeasure known on big and small offenses alike. He must display tough love by being severe with his punishments. Conversely, he must be generous with his compliments to those who do good. Above all, he must lead by example.
A good place to start is to ban “wang wang” again. It is a symbolic act and one immediately felt by our people. It sends the signal that government officials are not entitled to more road space than Juan de la Cruz. The commutes of government officials are no more important than a simple vendor delivering his goods to his market stall.
At 10 p.m. on the day of the coma scare, we finally saw the President having dinner with a lady friend care of Bong Go’s live feed. It was a relief to see the President alive.
Nothing gives you a clearer perspective then when you are faced with mortality issues. I hope the President uses the rest of his days to fast-track our infrastructure program, rid the county of its cancer of corruption and, yes, even solve the drug problem.
 
Andrew J. Masigan is an economist.