Media sometimes present stories based on unconfirmed reports and anonymous sources. Even accusers who file cases in court can rely on something they heard but have no personal knowledge of. This “aural tradition” of getting second-hand information feeds the rumor mill.
Anybody can concoct a scenario, say on the real beneficiaries of the vaccination program (Clue: not the vaccinated) or speculations on the possible reversal of election results.
We need only to follow the information pipeline of a listed company stock to see how hearsay can drive the price. The company itself may drop hints of a possible acquisition by the ubiquitous mogul from the south who’s been snapping up cafeterias — it’s too soon to make anything of the ongoing conversations with interested parties. In time, the conversation goes nowhere and the balloon loses its helium.
The “heard mentality” is particularly fertile in business. While hype is frowned upon, hearsay is not covered by any rules, and can propound undocumented claims of how the pre-listing price is doing. (It is never lower than the IPO price.) Legitimate research organizations disclose the assumptions for their recommendations. They can even question official projections of next year’s revenues used as basis for the PE ratios determining the IPO price.
The routine use of intermediaries in disseminating unfounded news (now simply called “fake”) borrows from social exchanges in non-corporate settings. Thus, an old-fashioned courtship relies on cousin or friend to get information on and entry into the world of the intended. This kind of date-gathering (or stalking) is made easier with the social media. Influence peddling is but another variant of the intermediary route. Mistresses and assorted relatives are routinely used to gain access to favors.
Barbara Tuchman, the historian (The Guns of August, Distant Mirror) says that hers is an exacting discipline.
In her essay on history, she espouses the importance of documentation rather than rumor in establishing her narrative interpretation of historical events. Even the weather which provides the setting for a battle or a diplomatic meeting is not flimsily established. More than one eyewitness account is used, and preferably, actual meteorological documents.
The problem with hearsay involves the reliability and objectivity of the source and an appropriate context for the opinions expressed.
Business reporting too suffers from this form of hearing impairment. Because journalists themselves may suffer from a lack of economic literacy, they may report on financial performance and business prospects by completely ignoring balance sheets and industry trends. Instead, they deal more with the easily understood (and heard) parts of a business story. These involve the human angles of rivalry and falls from power, even protected executives in fraud cases due to amorous ties with higher-ups.
It is easy to test this theory of the heard mentality. One only has to list down the news of the day he has gathered. He can then check his source. They will easily fall into the following categories: 1) It was a topic in a breakfast meeting where somebody overheard something significant; 2) It was picked up from the car radio while stuck in traffic, with the commentator having strong feelings about it, pounding the table a number of times; or 3) It was Topic A at the gym from somebody’s personal trainer.
Even if one has actually read the morning papers, most of what he finds there includes press releases, spins, and personal opinions. The authority cited is unnamed, with a quote not made for attribution from a person close to an official. Even then, reading habits indicate that most people only read headlines and maybe the first few paragraphs of the story. Seldom do they chase the details into the jump page where the caveats and qualifications are hidden.
In checking if a story is true, most are content with the ultimate test for accuracy — “I heard it from a reliable source.” This penchant to rely not on facts but opinions and theories heard or overheard can sound amusing to anyone until he finds himself the topic of the rumor mill… where denials seem to fall on deaf ears.
A. R. Samson is chair and CEO of Touch DDB.
