COVID-19 cases may jump to 44,000 by end-April

By Vann Marlo M. Villegas, Reporter

CORONAVIRUS CASES in the Philippines may multiply by almost nine times to 44,000 by the end of the month, better than without a lockdown for the entire Luzon island that started on March 17, according to university health experts.

Infections could reach 9,000 to 44,000 by end-April, a team of experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) said in a report posted on its website, noting that it now takes six days to double the number of infections compared with just three days before.

“This indicates the relative success of the enhanced community quarantine — along with other interventions — in containing the spread of the virus,” according to the report. “However, we must not simply rely on the number of cases as a means to project courses of actions.”

President Rodrigo R. Duterte locked down Luzon on March 17, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic that the Department of Health yesterday said had sickened 5,223 people.

The agency reported 291 new infections and 20 more deaths on Tuesday, raising the death toll to 335.

Fifty-three more patients have gotten well, bringing the total recoveries to 295, it said in a bulletin.

In their report, the UP experts said the COVID-19 virus had a fatality rate of 5.38% and a reproduction number of 0.6398 in the Philippines, which means the lockdown had been effective in containing the pandemic.

While the enhanced community quarantine seemed successful, expanding its area “may not be sustainable over the long run,” the experts said, adding that extending the restrictions on the movement of goods and services might “unnecessarily paralyze the economy.”

“In light of this reality, our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of the enhanced community quarantine depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time,” they said.

“Under this setup, provinces (or even lower-level local government units) may be put under enhanced community quarantine depending on how close or far they are to an estimated outbreak threshold,” they added.

The UP experts said they were conducting “epidemiological approaches in disease mapping” at the provincial level to determine the potential of an outbreak spread and getting the ratio of the number of cases to the estimated outbreak threshold.

They said provinces whose cases are 75% less than the estimated threshold need not declare a lockdown as long as they observe preemptive measures. Those whose cases are at least equal to the threshold should continue the quarantine.

They also recommended an automated data collection system in local governments, noting that getting real-time data makes it easier to estimate the rate of spread and identify hotspots and outbreaks.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario S. Vergeire yesterday said the government has started expanded mass testing for the COVID-19 virus and would prioritize patients and health care workers in critical condition and showing severe symptoms.

“We will then test people with mild symptoms and those aged more than 60 years, with underlying conditions or high-risk pregnancy,” she said at a separate briefing in Filipino.

Patients and health care workers who have mild symptoms, even if they are not among vulnerable, will be next in line.

Ms. Vergeire said testing is recommended for those who have been exposed to COVID-19 patients.

There are now 15 testing laboratories in the country, while 28 institutions were undergoing certification and 37 have expressed a desire to become testing laboratories.

DoH has distributed more than 43,000 personal protective equipment to various hospitals, facilities and laboratories and expects the delivery of 230,000 more next week, Ms. Vergeire said.

The Luzon lockdown was supposed to end on April 13, but Mr. Duterte extended it by two more weeks until April 30.

The coronavirus disease 2019 has sickened 1.9 million and killed almost 120,000 people worldwide, according to the Worldometers website, citing various sources including data from the World Health Organization.