Peso weakens on hawkish Fed

THE PESO weakened anew against the dollar on Monday due to hawkish signals from a US Federal Reserve official.

The local unit closed at P55.42 per dollar, dropping by 17 centavos from its P55.25 finish on Friday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened Monday’s session flat at P55.25 against the dollar. Its worst showing was at P55.45, while it climbed to a high of P55.143 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged dropped to $1.47 billion on Monday from $1.98 billion on Friday.

“The dollar-peso initially came to a fresh high of P55.143 as the market responded to the US’ extension of the tariff deadline against the European Union (EU), but eventually bounced to P55.45 following remarks from [Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari] saying that a rate cut in September is still uncertain,” a trader said in a phone interview.

The peso weakened against the dollar on Monday amid renewed uncertainty after US President Donald J. Trump’s latest tariff threat against EU and eventual U-turn, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

For Tuesday, the trader expects the peso to move between P55.20 and P55.50 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort sees it ranging from P55.30 to P55.50.

Mr. Kashkari said major shifts in US trade and immigration policy are creating uncertainty for Fed officials to move on interest rates before September, as the Trump administration continues tariff talks with numerous governments, Bloomberg reported.

“Anything is possible,” Mr. Kashkari said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Tokyo. But will the picture “be clear enough by September? I am not sure right now. We will have to see what the data says, but also how the negotiations are going,” he said. If trade deals are struck between the US and other nations over the next few months, “that should provide a lot of the clarity we are looking for,” he added.

While the US economy entered 2025 on solid footing, Mr. Trump’s tariffs and substantial changes to the country’s immigration policy have prompted businesses to rethink investment plans.

Widespread levies are seen pushing up US inflation while denting growth as firms pull back investment and households rein in spending. Mr. Kashkari and other central bank officials, including Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, have said the bar remains high for cutting interest rates in the near term.

“This uncertainty is potentially weighing on economic activity and creating challenges for us because we are not sure where things are going to settle and, therefore, where we should go with monetary policy,” Mr. Kashkari said.

Several Fed policymakers in the past week have signaled that their wait-and-see approach to potential interest-rate adjustments could extend for months as they look for clarity on the tariffs and their impact on the US economy.

Mr. Trump added to the uncertainty late last week when he threatened to impose a new 50% tariff on imported goods from the European Union, before delaying them until July 9. Mr. Trump also warned of a potential 25% levy on devices made by Apple, Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. that are not manufactured in the US.

The Supreme Court last week shielded the Fed from Mr. Trump’s push to fire top officials at independent federal agencies.

In a ruling that let Mr. Trump oust officials at two other agencies, the court said its decision wouldn’t apply to the central bank, calling it a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity.” The decision appears to protect Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell from outright termination, but it’s unclear whether it would prevent Mr. Trump from demoting him as chair.

Mr. Trump last month sent conflicting signals, posting on social media on April 17 that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” before telling reporters a few days later that he had no intention of firing him.

The biggest risk to the US economy is the overhang of major new policies, including trade barriers and immigration, Mr. Kashkari said on Monday. “I hope the negotiations taking place happen much more quickly than that so clarity can be provided.” — A.M.C. Sy with Bloomberg