ASEAN energy plans face funding, political risks

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

TURNING the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) Middle East crisis response pledges into reality will require governments to overcome funding, infrastructure and political hurdles that the region has historically struggled to sustain, analysts said.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said the challenge for ASEAN lies not in crafting declarations but in sustaining long-term coordination.

“ASEAN historically does well in consensus-building, but struggles when coordination requires sustained sacrifice and deeper institutional commitments,” he said via Facebook Messenger.

At the 48^th ASEAN Summit in Cebu province last week, leaders endorsed proposals including fuel-sharing arrangements, regional oil stockpiling and accelerated work on the ASEAN Power Grid as they sought to shield the region from surging oil prices, inflation and supply chain disruptions linked to the US-Israel war on Iran.

The proposals came as Southeast Asian economies face growing exposure to global energy shocks due to their dependence on imported fuel and critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of global oil supply passes.

The 11-member bloc warned in a joint statement dated May 8 that escalating war in the Middle East threaten trade flows, food supplies and economic stability across the region.

Leaders also stressed the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and uphold freedom of navigation under international law amid fears of disruptions to global oil shipments.

ASEAN outlined measures aimed at strengthening energy and food security, improving financial resilience and maintaining open trade routes. These include accelerating implementation of a regional petroleum security pact, expanding cross-border electricity integration and boosting emergency rice reserve mechanisms.

Analysts said the ambitions are likely to collide with economic and political realities within the region.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said projects such as regional fuel-sharing systems and the ASEAN Power Grid would require massive infrastructure investments and difficult political coordination.

“In practice, the challenge of these calls — fuel sharing, reserves and the ASEAN Power Grid — is tied to the infrastructure and logistical demands of achieving them,” he said via Messenger.

“There’s also the question of where the money comes from — whether from member states themselves, regional funders or outside powers like the US, the European Union or China.”

Large infrastructure projects across Southeast Asia have historically faced delays tied to land disputes, local resistance and governance concerns.

“Practically all of the ASEAN states are bad at balancing eminent domain powers with human rights protection,” Mr. Juliano said. “All of these are tall orders, even if the policy is well-intentioned.”

The summit also exposed the limits of ASEAN’s longstanding noninterference principle, which has often constrained coordinated action during regional crises.

‘TALK SHOP’
While ASEAN has traditionally relied on consultation and consensus, analysts said deeper energy coordination might require member states to gradually accept stronger regional commitments.

Mr. Tapia said ASEAN is unlikely to abandon these diplomatic norms but might reinterpret them in response to mounting external risks.

Leaders may gradually frame deeper coordination as necessary for collective resilience, he said.

Differences in energy interests among member states could further complicate implementation.

Major ASEAN energy exporters include Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Myanmar, which remain key exporters of natural gas, according to ASEAN data. Indonesia and Malaysia are also major coal exporters, while Laos is expanding its role as a hydropower exporter.

Import-dependent economies such as the Philippines face greater exposure to global fuel shocks.

The Philippines gets much of its fuel from the Middle East. Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April from 4.1% a month earlier, the fastest since March 2023, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The agency attributed the spike mainly to higher prices of food, transport and housing-related costs linked to the war-driven energy shock.

Analysts warned that failure to deliver concrete results could further damage ASEAN’s credibility as a regional bloc.

“Further stalling will only affirm anti-ASEAN prejudice as a ‘talk shop,’” Mr. Juliano said, adding that repeated delays could strengthen nationalist tendencies among member states and weaken confidence in multilateral cooperation.

Mr. Tapia said the summit signaled a broader shift in how ASEAN leaders now view energy policy.

“The real significance of this summit is that ASEAN leaders now appear to recognize that energy security is no longer simply an economic issue,” he said. “It has become a question of regional stability and strategic autonomy.”