Marcos faces reform test as Duterte signals 2028 presidential ambition

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporters

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. faces mounting pressure to deliver on key reforms after Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio signaled her intention to run for President in 2028, a move analysts said effectively opens the next race two years early.

Political observers said the early declaration reframes disputes — including impeachment complaints — within the context of an emerging presidential contest, raising the stakes for both camps.

Gary G. Ador Dionisio, dean of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said Malacañang must show measurable progress on priority legislation and longstanding commitments.

“The administration should focus on its target programs and ensure these are implemented, especially the priority bills it has identified,” he said on the sidelines of a political event in Makati City.

Delivering results on economic reforms, anti-dynasty measures and high-profile corruption cases would strengthen the administration’s standing ahead of what could be a prolonged campaign cycle, he added. Addressing controversies such as the multibillion-peso flood control scandal would also test its credibility.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said Ms. Duterte’s announcement appears calibrated to reshape the political narrative.

By formalizing a bid long expected by allies and rivals alike, she could frame impeachment efforts as partisan attacks rather than accountability measures, he said.

“She made that declaration to transform the narrative into being less about accountability and more about political retribution,” Mr. Tapia told BusinessWorld at the same event.

Four impeachment complaints have been filed against Ms. Duterte since early February by civil groups, alleging misuse of P612.5 million in confidential funds allocated to her office and the Education department when she was secretary. The complaints cite corruption, unexplained wealth, constitutional violations and betrayal of public trust.

‘BEST FORM OF DEFENSE’
Mr. Tapia noted that even if Ms. Duterte were to resign, impeachment proceedings could continue and still result in perpetual disqualification from public office upon conviction.

“In that sense, resignation does not automatically neutralize accountability risks,” he said.

Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said declaring a presidential bid lets Ms. Duterte recast scrutiny as evidence of political strength.

“She reframes scrutiny as evidence of her viability or winnability,” he said. A resignation, if it happens, could also be presented as a protest against what she might characterize as a weaponized impeachment process.

Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, described the move as strategic. “Offense is the best form of defense,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat, noting that an early declaration could solidify her core supporters and influence undecided political figures.

Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the University of Santo Tomas Political Science Department, said the announcement might prompt lawmakers to reassess alliances and clarify loyalties well ahead of the next election cycle.

FOREIGN POLICY STAKES
The developing 2028 race could also shape the Philippines’ foreign policy direction.

Sherwin E. Ona, associate professor of political science and development studies at the De La Salle University, said a Duterte presidency could revive closer engagement with Beijing, particularly if economic conditions weaken and Chinese financing becomes more attractive.

“There will be more dependence on China because they need to recoup political capital,” he told BusinessWorld.

Under Mr. Marcos, Manila has strengthened ties with traditional allies such as the US and expanded cooperation with partners in Europe and Asia. The administration has also pursued broader diversification of economic and security partnerships.

A policy shift in 2028 could recalibrate those alignments, Mr. Ona said, especially if a new administration reassesses existing agreements.

Former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, Ms. Duterte’s father, pivoted toward Beijing during his tenure, seeking infrastructure financing and investment despite tensions in the South China Sea.

In 2016, a United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal ruled that China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim in the disputed waterway was inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Beijing rejected the ruling and continues to assert its claims.

More recently, China’s foreign ministry cautioned Filipino officials over statements critical of Beijing. Manila’s Department of Foreign Affairs rebuked the Chinese Embassy for suggesting that deteriorating ties could cost Filipinos “millions of jobs,” saying such rhetoric risked being seen as coercive.

Mr. Ona said the Marcos administration should continue diversifying partnerships to reduce vulnerability to shifts in geopolitical alignment.

Ms. Duterte’s declaration comes amid intensifying tensions between her camp and the Marcos administration. Mr. Marcos is limited to a single six-year term and has yet to name a clear successor.

Analysts said 2026 could prove pivotal, as coalition-building and local political contests might shape the strength of any administration-backed candidate.

By stepping into the race early, Ms. Duterte raises the political cost of removal efforts against her, Mr. Tapia said. The move could complicate impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives, though lawmakers have said the process would continue regardless of her political plans.