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Challenging populist politics

The election spirit is in the air!

Aside from the regular holidays that many Filipinos hold dear, elections have always been a passion for the general population. With more than 18,000 local posts up for grabs, local participation is expected to be massive. Sadly, we can also expect more election-related violence as local elections are by nature more personal.

On a general scale, the upcoming May 13 elections represent three fundamental challenges that the present electoral and political landscape offer.

CONFRONTING POPULIST POLITICS
The first challenge refers to disputing the populist politics that has gained momentum under the Duterte administration. As elections may be associated with the popularity and clout of the incumbent president and his administration, it is important to note that Duterte continues to be popular and has retained a 74% satisfaction rating based on recent surveys. Such positive rating constitutes the political capital upon which supporters and followers could bank during the elections.

After more than two years in office, however, Duterte’s populist promises by and large proved to be mere political rhetoric.

True, there was the increase in the salaries of uniformed personnel and the upgrading of military logistics equipment and some measures that seemed impossible in the past decade, such as Free Tertiary Education, Free Irrigation Service, and the Universal Health Care Bill.

But many experts are apprehensive about the sustainability of these measures, as they require huge amounts of funding. Many also question whether these populist initiatives are timely since the government has also embarked on an ambitious P8-trillion infrastructure program until 2022.

populist politics

Nevertheless, populist issues dominate the campaign platform of majority of the candidates. These issues strongly appeal to the emotions of voters, but the solution may not be rational and sustainable. In most cases, national candidates prioritize gut issues such as food, health, and education.

PLATFORM AND CITIZENSHIP
In the face of such populist politics, a viable alternative is to promote a program- or platform-based leadership and politics. Two things come to mind — while focusing more on the top national concerns of the Filipinos, i.e., controlling inflation, increasing/improving workers’ pay, reducing poverty, and creating jobs, the top personal concerns related to health, education, victimization of crime, and access to jobs should also be prioritized. And while offering an enduring solution to these problems instead of purely relying on palliative means, the programs and solutions should be realistic as well.

In exploring political platforms for the upcoming elections, the Stratbase ADR Institute through its project Democracy Watch commissioned a survey (December 16 to 19, 2018) on the “Qualities that One is Looking for in a Senatorial Candidate of the Philippines.” It showed that 25% of the respondents listed “will not be corrupt” as among the qualities they are looking for a senatorial candidate. By area, 25% of respondents in the National Capital Region, 26% in the rest of Luzon, 27% in the Visayas and 22 % in Mindanao said they are looking for candidates “who will not be corrupt.”

Accordingly, the top quality that Filipino voters look for in a senatorial candidate is “not corrupt.” Candidates who have “concern for the poor” emerged as the second top quality (22%), followed by “good personal characteristics” which was listed by 21% of the respondents, while the fourth top quality is “trustworthy.”

Other qualities cited by respondents include “has concern/helpful to those in need” (20%); “walks his talk/fulfills promises” (14%); “can give solutions to the problems of the country” (9%); “approachable” (7%); “has good leadership qualities” (6%); “knows how to listen and confer with other people” (5%); “has faith in God” (5%); “has political will” (3%); and “educated/intelligent/bright” (3%).

In neutralizing populist politics, the value of citizenship comes into the fore. Anchored on critical participation, the electorate should analyze a candidate’s credibility, competence, and integrity. These can be measured by looking into their education, experience, records, and advocacies/platforms. Further, the population should embody the democratic principle behind the electoral process — to empower responsible leaders and ensure democracy.

POLITICAL DYNASTY
Third, the act of making elections viable, participatory, and inclusive begs to question the predominance of political dynasties in Philippine politics. According to Dean Donald Mendoza, “the elimination of fat dynasties will free up to 25% of local government positions for the young up and coming leaders.” The elimination of fat dynasties thus makes democracy inclusive. This will counter the worrying trend that he observed between 2007 and 2016, in which the “dynastic share or the number of powerful clans per position rose from 75% to 78% among district representatives; 70% to 81% among governors; and 58% to 70% among mayors.”

Frustratingly, the Anti-Political Dynasty bill (and all its different versions) has been passed from Congress to Congress since 1987 and still remains pending.

As the battle against political dynasties and traditional politics is a long and winding struggle, the promotion of a program- and platform-based politics is the necessary first step. It is also a deterrent against the proliferation of strongman politics and populist leaders. It also addresses the crisis in the political leadership aggravated by the weak character of Philippine political parties.

 

Prof. Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the founder and managing director of the Stratbase group and president of its policy think tank, the Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ADRi).

Politics and economic briefings

By Tony Samson

CAN AN ECONOMIC BRIEFING be complete without introducing such political topics as the impact of China’s growing influence, the stalled infrastructure program, the short-lived water shortage, or the impact of the coming elections, even if this is just a mid-term one? Are politics and economics intertwined like two snakes doing the tango?

The introduction of politics by economists in a business briefing is almost apologetic, and needs some throat-clearing — and now, for the elephant in the room. There is the demurral that economists prefer not to dip into political analysis, as if to reinforce the belief that discussions of surveys, the latest pet peeve, and candidates’ debates (or their absence) are the exclusive purview of “political experts.”

Even in a clean and transparent economy, what government enacts as laws, like tightening the rules on foreign labor for local businesses or limiting foreign ownership of properties, influences the way business is conducted. Such governments too do not have the distraction of a contentious media and vested interests.

Political developments in a less transparent and non-compliant environment can only multiply the risks and raise the level of economic influence, especially in an election year, even if only a mid-term one where thousands of positions are being contested.

The mid-term elections have a numerical impact on the economy in terms of a rise in consumer spending arising from the purchase of voters’ attention and efforts and ferrying them to particular locations. It’s not just tarpaulin billboards and rented loudspeakers for rallies that bump up. Expected too is the media spending as elections get closer. This last one though has taken a hit with the use of social media and the tightened budgets of corporate donors, who can no longer afford to fund insurance candidates.

What kinds of political analysis figure in economic briefings? Here are some recurring narratives:

Business shouldn’t have to check with the political hierarchy and their gate-keepers if it can do a gigantic deal if it conforms to the laws of the land. The private sector stays private. There is no need to “clear” with politicians when one private company seeks to merge with another. It’s only the regulatory agencies involved, if any, that will need to be informed for requisite approvals. Maybe certain countries or business investors seem preferred, but that’s just conspiracy theory.

There should be no need to prove political connections. Anecdotes about regional links should only be mentioned over mojitos, and among close friends. Intimacy with the inner circles of power should just be fodder for small talk. There are no favored groups. Now, out-of-favor groups can be argued to exist.

Focus should be on running the business. The economy will improve if the CEOs and major stockholders do not need to bother with paying homage to government leaders and remembering birthdays and what appropriate gifts to give on Christmas. This alone reduces the cost of doing business and should spur efficiency and improve return on sales. There is no necessity in tracking wedding sponsors of the rich and famous.

Competition is purely an economic contest in this free market environment. If political connections no longer apply, then market share will depend on better products, cheaper costs, more efficient delivery systems, better marketing, inventory control, and the ability to delight customers — and all those old-fashioned ways of making money for the stockholders…without needing political clout.

Because there are no “party politics” in the country, driven as the election is by personalities and family connections, there are no dogmatic ideologies that define conservatives versus populists, or capitalists versus socialists. It is headlines and scandals that are in the forefront of subjects to discuss, never a 12-point program, addressing wealth creation or the need for inclusive GDP growth. This is the reason they abolished debates prior to elections — nobody shows up.

What business is looking for as far as politics is concerned is simplicity itself. It just wants to be left alone. And the candidates who promote benign neglect as an approach to national issues (except maybe water shortages and the elimination of the drug menace) gets the business vote.

Economic briefings that include the political landscape and its impact on the economy can be summarized in three words — wait and see.

 

Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda

ar.samson@yahoo.com

Peso strengthens in muted trade ahead of March inflation report

peso dollar
THE PESO climbed ahead of the release of March inflation data.

THE PESO strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday amid “quiet” trading as investors continue to wait for local inflation data to be released on Friday.

The local currency closed Tuesday’s session at P52.44 versus the greenback, 6.5 centavos stronger than the P52.505 finish on Monday.

The peso opened slightly stronger at P52.50 versus the dollar, slipping to as low as P52.57 intraday. Meanwhile, its best showing for the day stood at P52.43 per dollar.

Dollars traded grew to $924.61 million from the $801.53 million that switched hands the previous day.

A foreign exchange trader said the market remained quiet yesterday as the peso just moved within range.

“Although we closed near the low, the downward movement was on thin volume,” the trader said in an interview. “The market is still being cautious ahead of the Philippine CPI (consumer price index) data.”

Inflation for the month of March is widely expected to have eased further on the back of lower rice and food costs.

A BusinessWorld poll of economists yielded a 3.5% median, which if realized would be slower than February’s 3.8% print. This will keep inflation on a downtrend for the fifth straight month.

“We think this low volatility will persist for the peso,” the trader added.

Meanwhile, another trader said the peso strengthened on profit taking following the weaker US retail sales report and ahead of a likely weaker US durable goods data.

“The local currency also strengthened due to lingering risk appetite in the markets amid upbeat manufacturing data from the US and China,” the trader said.

China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly reversed to growth in March at 50.8 from a decline of 49.9 a month ago, according to Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Monday.

For today, the first trader expects the peso to move between P52.30 and P52.60 versus the dollar, while the other gave a P52.35-P52.55 range. — K.A.N. Vidal

Shares climb on China, US manufacturing data

By Arra B. Francia, Reporter

SHARES FIRMED UP on Tuesday along with international markets on the back of strong manufacturing data from the United States and China.

The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) climbed 0.49% or 38.90 points to close at 7,879.21. The broader all-shares index likewise rose 0.43% or 20.73 points to 4,844.86.

“Our market is benefiting from upbeat data that came out from China and the US yesterday. Manufacturing data from the world’s two largest economies were stronger than expected, tempering fears that we are entering a global slowdown in growth,” AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. President William Matthew M. Cabangon said via text on Tuesday.

China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded at the strongest pace in eight months in March, rising to 50.8 from 49.9 in February, above the neutral 50-mark dividing expansion from contraction on a monthly basis and the highest level seen since July 2018. Meanwhile, the US Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 55.3 from 54.2 in February, which had marked the lowest level since November 2016.

Diversified Securities, Inc. Equities Trader Aniceto K. Pangan also attributed the market’s performance to China’s manufacturing data, in addition to optimism from foreign investors.

“Mainly, market was up today on bargain hunting on continued net foreign buying as well as growth optimism from the release of China’s PMI for March beating estimates indicative of a turnaround,” Mr. Pangan said in a separate message on Tuesday.

Foreign investors posted a net buying figure of P503.89 million yesterday, significantly higher than the previous session’s P29.07 million worth of net purchases.

Wall Street indices also welcomed the strong manufacturing data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.27% or 329.74 points to 26,258.42. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.16% or 32.79 points to 2,867.19, while the Nasdaq Composite index rose 1.29% or 99.59 points to 7,828.91.

Back home, all sectoral indices ended in positive territory, led by services which inched up 0.87% or 13.78 points to 1,594.22. Financials jumped 0.77% or 13.35 points to 1,743.06; mining and oil rallied 0.66% or 50.78 points to 7,717.38; holding firms advanced 0.35% or 27.5 points to 7,719.49, while industrials added 0.21% or 25.49 points to 11,754.70.

Turnover slimmed to P4.79 billion after some 2.20 billion issues switched hands, against Monday’s P5.53 billion.

Despite the main index’s positive performance, decliners outpaced advancers, 103 to 91, while 46 names were unchanged.

“AAA maintains a constructive view on local equities in the short to medium term. We advise investors to buy on dips,” AAA’s Mr. Cabangon said. — with Reuters

Gov’t mulls bringing 2016 arbitral ruling to UN

By Arjay L. Balinbin, Reporter

MALACAÑANG on Tuesday said the government is considering the United Nations (UN) General Assembly as an option to enforce the 2016 ruling by The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration on the Philippines’ sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea.

“Isa sa mga option iyon (That is one of the options),” Presidential Spokesperson Salvador S. Panelo said at a news conference at the Palace on Tuesday.

He added that it is “for the President’s decision, I’m just giving you my thoughts on it na puwedeng gawin ‘yan (that it can be done).”

“Everything is possible. If you’re talking of possibilities. But whether magiging (that will be) effective or not is another story,” he said further.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte has repeatedly said he would revisit the ruling “at the right time.” He reaffirmed that position last year in his bilateral meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc at the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Leaders’ Summit in Singapore.

Mr. Panelo said it was the opposition that worsened the situation in the West Philippine Sea.

“What I’m saying is lahat ng problema ngayon kaya nandito because of you — pinaalala ninyo eh. Iyong problema kasi — maliit na problema, lumaki nang lumaki dahil sa inyo, wala kayong ginawa,” he said. (What I am saying is you are the cause of all these problems. You made the problems worse. The problems were not serious. They just worsened because of you. You have done nothing).

Former foreign affairs secretary Albert F. del Rosario and former Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales have filed recently a communication to the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Chinese President Xi Jinping and other officials over the harassment of Filipino fishermen in the West Philippine Sea.

Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua has said it “was not a proper action that is based on facts.”

“It’s a fabrication and also a misuse of the mandate of the ICC,” he told reporters at the Palace last Monday.

SC orders Calida to release records on drug war

By Vann Marlo M. Villegas, Reporter

THE Supreme Court (SC) ordered Solicitor-General Jose C. Calida to release pertinent police documents on the government’s “war on drugs” to petitioners questioning the constitutionality of the anti-drug campaign.

“The Court just ordered the (Solicitor-General) to submit the police reports to the Supreme Court, copy-furnishing the petitioners,” SC Public Information Chief Brian Keith F. Hosaka said in a press briefing in Baguio City.

This case stemmed from the 2017 petitions of the Center for International Law (CenterLaw) and Free Legal Assistance Group (FLAG) which sought the SC’s intervention in the drug war.

CenterLaw sought a writ of amparo to protect residents of 26 towns in San Andres Bukid, Manila, from the antidrug campaign while FLAG questioned the constitutionality of that campaign.

The SC held oral arguments on the petitions, then ordered the Office of the Solicitor-General (OSG) in December that year to submit pertinent documents on antidrug operations by the police from July 1, 2016 to Nov. 30, 2017.

That same month, the OSG filed a motion for reconsideration, arguing that the records being sought are a matter of national security, among other grounds.

The high court denied the OSG’s appeal and directed it to comply with the order. CenterLaw, in February this year, filed a reiterative motion to be furnished with copies of the documents submitted by the OSG only to the SC.

In a related development, the SC tasked Associate Justice Diosdado M. Peralta “to coordinate and communicate directly” with the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) in determining reports about “judges purportedly linked to the illegal drug trade.”

“This will pave the way for a formal fact-finding and administrative investigation by the Supreme Court,” Mr. Hosaka said.

“The Supreme Court, like in the past, will and shall not tolerate any illegal or corrupt activities within its ranks,” he added.

Duterte ‘verbally’ appoints acting chief of Budget Department

By Karl Angelo N. Vidal, Reporter

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte has “verbally” appointed Officer-in-Charge Janet B. Abuel as acting secretary of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), amid the ongoing appointments ban ahead of the May 13 midterm elections.

Presidential Spokesperson Salvador B. Panelo said on Tuesday the Cabinet meeting on Monday night “began with the President’s announcement of the appointment of the Department of Budget and Management Officer-in-Charge/Undersecretary Janet Abuel as Acting Secretary.”

Mr. Panelo said the designation was only “verbal,” amid the 45-day appointment ban.

“Wala naman siyang formal appointment. Parang sinabi niya lang na ikaw na lang diyan (There is no formal appointment. It’s like he just said verbally that she will be taking the role),” Mr. Panelo told reporters on Tuesday.

Ms. Abuel rose from the ranks in the DBM, starting as a budget and management analyst in 1996 to director IV in 1999. She was promoted to assistant secretary in 2012 and eventually as undersecretary in 2018.

She holds a master’s degree in public administration from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore and was the Bar Examinations topnotcher in 1998.

Ms. Abuel was named as the DBM’s officer-in-charge last month following the appointment of then Budget Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno as governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Mr. Diokno replaced Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. who passed away in February after battling tongue cancer for more than a year.

The Budget department is awaiting the enactment of the 2019 national budget, pending Mr. Duterte’s signature. The country is currently operating under a reenacted 2018 budget, which leaves new programs and even big-ticket infrastructure projects unfunded.

Comelec sets new discount rules for May election campaign ads

THE COMMISSION on Elections (Comelec) has issued the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) for the amended election law, setting out the discount rates and guidelines for the May 2019 campaign ads that will be placed in different media outlets.

Under the IRR, media companies are ordered to give the following discounts for campaign ads by registered candidates and parties: 50% for television, 40% for radio, and 10% for print. The percentage will be based on the average regular rate in the past three years.

Media outlets can give even bigger discounts, but it should be applied to all candidates for the same position.

The Comelec requires media outlets to submit the average published rates charged during the past three years, and a certification that shows the discounted rates were applied uniformly to all those running for this midterm elections.

The IRR, contained in Comelec En Banc Resolution No. 10517 released on April 1, is in line with Republic Act 11207 signed last February 14, 2019, which amends Section 11 of RA 9006 or the Fair Elections Act.

“For the May 13, 2019 National and Local Elections, media outlets shall give registered political parties, party list groups, coalitions, and bona fide candidates the above discounted rates upon effectivity of these rules,” states the resolution signed by the Comelec En Banc on March 30.

The definition of media outlets include “intermediaries” who act between media outlets and candidates, political parties, party-list groups, and coalitions “for the purpose of entering into political advertisement contracts.”

Media companies are also still subject to the reportorial requirements for election-related advertising contracts contained in Comelec Resolution 9991. — Gillian M. Cortez

Cebu provincial government rolls out El Niño response plan

AN INITIAL P20 to P25 million budget has been allocated by the Cebu provincial government for intervention projects to assist farmers, fisherfolk, and other communities affected by the prevailing El Niño phenomenon. The money will be sourced from the P59 million quick response fund, which is ready for release following the declaration of a state of calamity in the province on March 25. In a statement, the provincial government said among the initial projects identified is renting water tankers to deliver supply in priority affected areas such as the towns of Argao and Dalaguete. The local administration held a coordination meeting last Friday with provincial and national agencies to avoid a redundancy of interventions. Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office head Baltazar S. Tribunalo, Jr. said that as of March 27, there were already 29 local government units that submitted assessment and damage reports. Mr. Tribunalo said damage and losses estimate is so far least P100 million, including crops, tilapia and seaweeds. Affected farmers and fisherfolk will also be able to claim insurance under the program of the provincial government and the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation.

New Pigalo Bridge in Isabela completed

THE 450-METER new Pigalo Bridge in Angadanan, Isabela is now complete, the Department of Public Works and Highways-Region 2 office announced on Tuesday. The project, with a total cost of P458 million, includes a 500-meter road network for the bridge approaches with drainage structures and embankment protections. Cagayan Valley Regional Director Melanio C. Briosos, in a statement, said travel time between the barangays on either side of Angadanan and San Guilllermo and other municipalities along Cagayan River will be shorter by 30 minutes. The new structure replaces the old dilapidated overflow bridge, which was damaged during typhoons Pedring (international name: Nesat) and Quiel (Nalgae), which both struck in 2011.

Evasco’s family asks NBI to verify alleged assassination plot against him

THE FAMILY of former cabinet secretary Leoncio B. Evasco, Jr. asked the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) to verify the alleged assassination plot against him. In a letter dated April 1, Mr. Evasco’s wife and three children asked the NBI to identify the supposed assassins contracted and the mastermind. Mr. Evasco is running for governor in Bohol under the Nationalist People’s Coalition-Hugpong ng Pagbabago. “In the event that the said plot is confirmed, we trust that this investigation will result to unmasking of the identities of the assassins contracted for the plot but most especially for the people who contracted them,” the family said in the letter. Security escorts have been provided for Mr. Evasco for the campaign period following the reported plot, but the family said visiting friends and supporters from Davao City observed that there were “unmarked motorcycles occasionally running alongside the service vehicle of the gubernatorial candidate.” The family requested that the probe be conducted by “a special team from the NBI Central Office to remove all doubts and suspicions. We believe in the impartiality and fairness of your Office hence this request.” — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Negros Oriental provincial, town police chiefs relieved amid probe of 14 deaths

THE PROVINCIAL police director of Negros Oriental and the chiefs in one city and two towns have been relieved from their posts as the investigation on the death of 14 farmers suspected as communist supporters gets underway, Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Gen. Oscar D. Albayalde announced on Tuesday. The officers are: Provincial Director Col. Raul Taaca; Lt. Col. Patricio Degay of the Canlaon City police, Captain Michael A Rubia of Sta. of Catalina, and Lt. Kelvin Roy Mamaradlo of Manjuyod. “I would like to emphasize that their relief is not a punitive measure for alleged actions or inactions, rather it is an administrative relief to ensure that they will not be able to exert any influence in the ongoing investigation by the Internal Affairs Service and the Directorate for Investigation and Detective Management,” said Mr. Albayalde in a press briefing. The PNP and the Department of Interior and Local Government will provide legal assistance to the police officers. — Vince Angelo C. Ferreras