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Mental mistakes

Kyrie Irving was not pleased. He had just seen the Celtics snatch defeat from the throes of victory yet again, and his post-mortem showed his surliness. As he answered query after query on why the green and white proved unable to protect a sizable lead anew, he couldn’t help but issue biting remarks. Not even their game plan against the Hornets’ Kemba Walker was spared; after seeing the All-Star torch them for 18 points in the last eight minutes of a match they led by the same number heading into the same time frame, he noted that they “should have trapped him a little bit more like every other team does in the league.”
Irving’s statement seemed like a direct stab at head coach Brad Stevens’ decision making, especially since he pointed out that Walker “torches us every time we play [the Hornets]. It’s no surprise.” Perhaps he was just irked at all and sundry, including himself. After all, he didn’t exactly arrest the bleeding when he checked back into the set-to with a little under six minutes to play and the Celtics still up by 10; he managed just one field goal against four missed three-point attempts, four fouls, and one turnover in the crunch.
Significantly, Irving’s poor body language reflected his dismay throughout the Celtics’ swoon; he looked particularly non-plussed when, with 14.3 seconds left in the contest, sophomore guard Terry Rozier took an ill-advised turnaround three pointer in heavy coverage after already having dribbled into the paint. True, it was an attempt that could have tied the score. On the other hand, it was the type of choice Stevens supposedly eschews: hero ball by an unproven commodity in the face of superior options.
In any case, Stevens was quick to take the blame. “It’s disappointing,” he said. “I think you can look at it and say we all could have done better.” And he’s right; while the Celtics missed rotation regulars Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, and Aaron Baynes, they had more than enough talent to prevail versus the also-undermanned Hornets. And as the prognoses moving forward leans to the negative, it isn’t simply because mental mistakes cost them a win yesterday. It’s because mental mistakes keep on costing them, as if they don’t learn — or, worse, can’t learn — from experience.
From any perspective, there can be no arguing that the Celtics are trending in the wrong direction. Their third straight setback has them down to fifth in East standings, with the difference between starting the playoffs at the TD Garden and on the road possibly determining their capacity to move on in light of their inconsistent performances. It’s not what Irving signed up for, and he’s bummed. And unless and until systemic improvements finally take root, he’ll continue to have mood swings that figure to sway him when free agency comes calling in June.
 
Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994.

Analysts: Talks with Misuari may revive Sabah claim

By Arjay L. Balinbin
Reporter
NEGOTIATIONS on federalism between the Philippine government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) led by Nur Misuari may revive discussions on the Philippines’ claim over Sabah, analysts sought for comment said.
President Rodrigo R. Duterte last week said Mr. Misuari warned that he “will go to war” if the government fails to pursue federalism.
The President’s spokesman, Salvador S. Panelo, said the two leaders agreed to form a panel, which according to Mr. Duterte, would discuss how the MNLF leader wants the system to be applied, “whether it is similar to the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) or a different type.”
Asked if Mr. Misuari talked about “owning territories,” the President told reporters: “We’ll just have to craft something there that would be allowed by the Constitution.”
In contrast to the MNLF’s breakaway group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Mr. Misuari has stuck to the Sabah claim as formerly pursued by the Philippine government.
The MILF now dominates the transition body of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) that was established following the ratification of the BOL last January.
Analysts were asked whether Mr. Misuari’s push for federalism will revive discussions on the Philippines’ claim over Sabah, or North Borneo.
Lawyer and Ateneo Policy Center senior research fellow Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco said via e-mail on Sunday: “I know for a fact that the Malaysian government takes note every time a politician openly declares that Sabah is part of the Philippines. But as to whether the Malaysians will go beyond just merely noting down, that depends on who the politician is making the declaration. Right now, I doubt if the Malaysian government will be overly concerned with Nur Misuari’s re-emergence in the federalism discourse, which may include claims over Sabah.” He also noted that Malaysia and “other nations in our region” are “fully” supportive of the BARMM.
“Their willingness to invest in the autonomous region means they see the success of the BARMM as the priority. Rumblings from [Mr.] Misuari and his group, while (these) should not be simply shrugged off, are not the main concern for the moment,” Mr. Yusingco said.
Also sought for comment, political history assistant professor Marlon B. Lopez of the Mindanao State University-Tawi-Tawi College of Technology and Oceanography said via chat that possible negotiations between Mr. Duterte’s government and the MNLF on federalism “may revive the Sabah claim; however, it might be toned down due to our close cooperation with Malaysia as our foreign policy is being friendly to all nations, especially to our ASEAN neighbors. Claiming Sabah again is a blow to this policy.”
For his part, University of Santo Tomas (UST) political science professor Marlon M. Villarin said: “Yang (The) Sabah noise can be the last resort by Mr. Misuari but, for sure, the Malaysian government will not make the MNLF unhappy with their lack of support considering that Mr. Misuari is the only Muslim leader recognized by the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation). So, his personality is both politically and diplomatically important to our country, and that is why President Duterte is making him feel included within his administration.”
Mr. Lopez added that “this might be viewed as unfriendly to this historical claim but President Duterte is very charismatic and close to the traditional elites of the Bangsamoro that he might be able to do this very tricky political labyrinth.”
‘MORO SUB-STATE’
Mr. Yusingco said Mr. Misuari’s “vision of a federal Philippines is still unclear.”
“I think he is more concerned about what the Sulu sub-state should look like. This would be most likely be made up of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, at the very least. It may include the entire Zamboanga Peninsula and Palawan, if his nostalgic imagination of the Sultanate of Sulu will prevail.”
But the reality, he also said, is that “what a Moro sub-state would look like in a federal Philippines is still unsettled.”
“It could be the current BARMM. Or it could also be divided between the mainland provinces (Maguindanao and Lanao) and the island provinces (BaSulTa). The configuration of a Moro sub-state is still to be subjected to a serious discussion because, right now, the administration is not facilitating any public discourse on the planned shift to a federal system. Currently, the discussion about this move is limited to local government officials and national agencies.”
When the Task Force on Federalism opens the discussion to the public, “then how the BARMM fits into a federal system will surely be a priority issue. But right now, there is still no clear and singular vision of a Moro sub-state, be it the MILF, MNLF or any group’s imagination of what it should be,” Mr. Yusingco explained.
‘SABAH’
Sabah, which is said to be part of the Sultanate of Sulu, was leased to the British North Borneo in the 18th century under the North Borneo Chartered Company.
In 2012, MILF chief Al-Haj Murad Ebrahim and the government under president Benigno S. C. Aquino III inked the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro that would pave the way for the establishment of the new autonomous political entity, the Bangsamoro, to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).
Mr. Misuari criticized the said agreement. In his interview with the dzMM, as reported by the ABS-CBN News on Oct. 15, 2012, he said the framework agreement, which was silent on Sabah, was arranged by Kuala Lumpur with the Philippine government and the MILF to prevent the implementation of the 1976 Tripoli Agreement that would supposedly cover Sabah and Sarawak of Malaysia.
“Alam ko iyan (I know that) because they are expecting their colonization of our homeland Sabah and Sarawak. Iyan ay lupain ng aking (those are owned by my) great, great grandfather. [They brokered the peace deal] para we cannot have the luxury of time to look into our problem in Sabah and Sarawak. Iyan ang (These are) tactics ng (of) Malaysia. They are very smart,” the MNLF chairman was quoted as saying.
In his interview with Aljazeera in 2013, Mr. Misuari accused the MILF of being an “instrument” of Malaysia’s “interference” in Mindanao.
In 1967, the government under president Ferdinand E. Marcos ordered a military training for Muslim army recruits called the “Jabidah” fighters whose mission was “to start trouble in Malaysia, in the guise of soldiers of the Sultan of Sulu,” according to a graphic “Timeline of the Jabidah Massacre” posted on the government’s Official Gazette.
The Timeline also said that the soldiers’ task was “to invade Sabah, which the Philippines claimed as part of its territory.”
March 18, 1968, in Corrigidor, as said in the Timeline, “The training officers of the Jabidah Unit opened fire at the remaining recruits before dawn in response to the unit’s previous attempt to air grievances. This is the date of what has come to be known as the Jabidah Massacre.”
In opposition to the Marcos government, the MNLF, which also called for an independent state, was established.
For his part, Mr. Misuari’s spokesperson, lawyer Emmanuel Fontanilla, played down the MNLF leader’s threat of war.
“Hindi yun pananakot (It was not a threat), it’s just a sign of frustration from the part of MNLF,” Mr. Fontanilla said in a phone interview.
“Pero in real politics, hindi naman basta basta mag-declare ng war kasi mayroon OIC, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (we cannot just simply declare war because of the OIC, and we have an agreement. In other words, ‘yung sinabi ni Chairman Misuari (what Chairman Misuari said) is simply making the situation serious.”
Mr. Fontanilla said the government should understand where Mr. Misuari is coming from.
“Let’s go to his historical perspective….MNLF fought for independence and later on there were promises, the autonomous government, we came up with the 1976 Tripoli Agreement and the 1996 Final Peace Agreement. Tapos si Cory Aquino nag-promise din ng federal government. In other words, almost a span of 50 years, nag-antay ang MNLF (The MNLF waited for almost a span of 50 years),” he said.
Mr. Fontanilla said the MNLF is looking forward to a discussion with the government: “On the part of President Duterte, he already declared that he will convene negotiations with the new panels between the government and MNLF. Maganda po yan, kami po ay naniniwala, at sabi rin po ni Chairman Misuari (That’s good, we believe and Chairman Misuari said) that we have to really solve a problem through negotiation.”
Sought for comment, Defense Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana said Mr. Misuari should adapt to the newly-established Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao: “If he wants to be relevant in this new setup he should work within the BARMM to make it successful. He has the stature and influence that could make a big difference to the BARMM.” — with Vince Angelo C. Ferreras

Sison: Duterte ‘best recruiter’ of NPA rebels

By Vince Angelo C. Ferreras
Reporter
PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte is the “best recruiter” of the New People’s Army for driving people to “fight” his “evil” regime, Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder Jose Maria C. Sison said in a statement on late Saturday evening, March 23.
“As the best recruiter of the NPA, Duterte has driven so many people to join the NPA by running a tyrannical, treasonous, mass murdering, plundering and inflation-generating regime. The people have no choice but to fight such an evil regime,” said Mr. Sison in a statement on late Saturday evening, March 23.
Relations between the national government and communist rebels had been strained anew, with Mr. Duterte announcing on March 21 that he is ending peace negotiations.
“By terminating the peace negotiations, he compels the armed revolutionary movement to concentrate on intensifying the people’s war and cast away any illusion that this regime of terror and greed can negotiate social, economic and political reforms to address the roots of the armed conflict in order to achieve a just and lasting peace,” Mr. Sison said.
The exiled communist leader said of Mr. Duterte’s “splitting the military and police forces into two parts.
“The part for psywar and mass intimidation is for engaging in fake peace-and-development activities, rounding up people for fake localized peace negotiations, fake surrenders, occupation of civilian offices, too many checkpoints, guarding pro-Duterte politicians and business enterprises, over-enlarged surveillance and intelligence operations, widespread red tagging, urban arrests and death-squad operations.
“The part for combat is weakened with less personnel for field deployment.”
Mr. Sison also said Mr. Duterte is the “best transport and supply officer” for the rebels.
“When they advance in superior force, the NPA retreats and gives the enemy an illusion of winning. But when they camp and take over rough terrain, their strength is thinned out and they leave gaps between units and make small detachments and patrol teams, which are easy targets for the counteroffensives of the NPA,” he said.
“It is impossible for the reactionary military, police and paramilitary forces to defeat the NPA through sheer military operations and puerile psywar. The NPA already has nationwide strength and is deeply rooted among the toiling masses,” Mr. Sison said.
Sought for comment, Presidential Spokesperson Salvador L. Panelo said: “Other than saying that his rants are psychologically challenged, they are undeserving of a response.”
Malacañang recently announced a new panel will be organized to pursue localized peace talks with the rebels.

Iloilo health officials step up chickenpox monitoring

THE ILOILO Provincial Health Office (PHO) is stepping up the monitoring of chickenpox cases after 35 students in one primary school were recorded to have been infected since January. “The infection was spread because the infected children were still going to school. The prevention should have started on the first case identified, that should have been in-house,” said PHO head Patricia Grace S. Trabado. The case of the 35 schoolchildren of Cadabdab Elementary School who were affected between Jan. 15 to March 3 can be traced to an adult male who passed on the infection to one of the students. Ms. Trabado said no new cases have been recorded since following closer monitoring and management by the Rural Health Units. She also reminded the public that chickenpox as well as mumps should be watched out for during the summer season. — Emme Rose S. Santiagudo

Sweden eyes expanded business, academic relations with Iloilo

SWEDISH AMBASSADOR to the Philippines Harald Fries said he is on a mission to link Swedish businesses with areas outside the National Capital Region as well as strengthen tourism and academic relations between the two countries. “One important mission is to learn how Swedish business can connect with the Philippine businesses outside Metro Manila. I like to go to other places and talk to local politicians, business people, civil society organizations to see how it can connect Sweden and the local province,” Mr. Fries said in an interview at the Iloilo City hall last Friday. “We will see how we can build to strengthen the relationship in terms of business, tourism, and academic student exchange,” he added. Mr. Fries also noted the efforts of the local government in terms of ease of doing business. “There are many opportunities. The local politicians here are working hard on doing business earlier by making fewer steps in terms of transactions, tax incentives, and infrastructures. It’s very important for business,” he said. The ambassador said he first visited Iloilo 28 years ago and noted the urban growth. “I was here 28 years ago and it was a huge change compared to late 80s… The new airport and driving in from the airport, its completely a new modern city compared to before,” he said. — Emme Rose S. Santiagudo

Give K-12 program some time, says PBEd

THE PHILIPPINE Business for Education (PBEd), a non-profit established by the country’s top chief executive officers in 2006, said it is too soon to judge the effectiveness of the K-12 basic education program after senators recently called for a review on the curriculum’s supposed role in the sinking performance of students. PBEd Chairman Ramon del Rosario Jr. said the K-12 curriculum, which was first implemented in the school year 2012-2013, has yet to produce real results. “You have to remember, that these people (recent K-12 graduates) took the first 10 years out of the old curriculum and then they just added Grade 11 and 12,” Mr. Del Rosario said in an interview with BusinessWorld last week. “We don’t have the real graduates of K-12 yet so how can you judge the effectivity o K-12?” added the PBEd chairman, who is also the president and chief executive officer of PHINMA Inc. and PHINMA Corporation. Earlier this month during a senate session, Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian pointed out the declining performance of Grade 6 and Grade 10 students in national achievement examinations. He also cited the 2018 Fresh Graduates Report from Jobstreet, which indicated that 35% of companies are not willing to hire K-12 graduates without undergraduate degrees. The senator called for a review of the K-12 program, enlisting the help of the Department of Education (DepEd) and other concerned agencies. Mr. Del Rosario said PBEd is open to discussions and ready to lend assistance in addressing the problems of the country’s basic education program. — Gillian M. Cortez

Cebu provincial board to discuss state of calamity declaration Monday

CEBU’S PROVINCIAL Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO) is set to present before the provincial board on Monday the damage assessment and impact on farmers of the prevailing dry spell due to El Niño after recommending last March 21 the declaration of a state of calamity. The board will have to give its approval for the declaration, which would allow the use of emergency funds to assist affected farmers. PDRRMO chief Baltazar S. Tribunalo, Jr. Tribunalo, in a statement from the provincial information office, said among the priority areas for assistance are Argao and Dalaguete towns. The provincial government has allotted at least P89 million as Quick Respond Fund (QRF) this year to address the effects of the El Niño. He said both crop and fish farmers have reported losses as well as seaweed growers. Last Feb. 28, the PDRRMC Council approved PDRRMO’s recommendation to place the province under a state of preparedness to brace for the impact of the prolonged dry spell. Mr. Tribunalo among the mitigation mechanisms they have initiated include the installation of water tanks and the use of delivery trucks to provide water rations to priority areas.

Cloud seeding in Davao del Sur starts this week; province now under state of calamity

THE DAVAO del Sur government has placed the province under a state of calamity due to the dry spell brought that has caused an estimated P161.2 million in damage to rice and corn farms. “The losses have been placed at P155.6 million for 3,657 of rice farms and P5.5 million for 321 hectares of corn fields,” Department of Agriculture (DA) Davao Region Disaster Risk Reduction and Management focal person Roy Jose Pascua said last week, noting that the data is based on reports as of March 20. The damage cost is expected to go higher, specifically in the hardest-hit municipalities of Magsaysay, Bansalan, Kiblawan, Hagonoy and Matanao. The declaration of a state of calamity will allow the local government to use emergency funds to assist farmers. Meanwhile, the DA is set to conduct cloud seeding starting this week to May 25 to save the crops that have not yet been harvested. — Carmencita A. Carillo

Beating the summer heat

LOCAL tourists flock to and take a dip at the Wawa Dam in Rodriguez, Rizal on Sunday, March 24. Weather bureau PAGASA declared the start of the summer season last Friday and warned the public to brace themselves for a longer dry season due to the prevailing weak El Niño phenomenon.

Army’s engineering brigade in need of at least 1,000 for Marawi rehab

THE PHILIPPINE Army’s 55th Engineering Brigade is need of at least 1,000 additional personnel to assist in the Marawi City rehabilitation program. In a social media post last week on the official page of the military’s Civil Relations Service, the brigade’s commander, BGen. Evan T. Ruiz, called for applicants. “We need as many personnel to help in Marawi rehabilitation under the supervision of the Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM),” Mr. Ruiz said. The 55th Engineering Brigade was recently reactivated to help speed up the rehabilitation projects, including road widening, drainage, and construction of schools, health centers and other government facilities. Meanwhile, TFBM Chair Eduardo D. del Rosario appealed to displaced residents to stretch their patience and verify reports about the rehabilitation program. “Today, we have initially identified one of their worries which is the fear that they might not be able to go back to their homes. So, we assured them today that they can visit their homes after the debris clearing, and the DSWD (Department of Social Welfare and Development) will also give cash assistance,” he said during a two-day dialogue last week intended to quell rising tension in the war-torn city. It has been almost two years since local extremist groups laid siege to Marawi in late May 2017, which led to an almost five-month fierce battle with government troops that left central areas of the city in ruins, including 24 villages whose residents remain displaced. Mr. Del Rosario, who is also head of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council, said there are groups spreading wrong information. “Although it is their right to express what they want, but it’s not helping the rehabilitation of Marawi City. So, I hope they realize that at the end of the day, what we are doing is for the general welfare of everybody and not to satisfy the whims and caprices of very small groups,” he said.

More stock market development

Continuing the Market-Oriented Reforms for Efficiency (MORE) series in this column, we look at one of the important indicators of an economy’s attractiveness to private business, entrepreneurship and job creation, the stock market.
Unlike foreign direct investments (FDI) which are long-term and, hence, require lots of basic soft and hard infrastructure, portfolio and stocks investments are often short-term, with investors buying today and selling after a month, or a week, or within hours. Thus, the stock market reflects the long- and short-term business sentiments.
The Philippines stock market has experienced good expansion in the previous decade, and further expanded until 2015. It has tanked though at the end of 2016 during the Duterte administration, grew in 2017, but declined again early this year.
Thailand and Indonesia have started at similar levels with the Philippines in 2000 and, since then, have expanded much faster and are twice that of the Philippines today. Vietnam started late but has shown consistent increases. One reason for this is that the Philippines has a small number of listed companies, only 267 (see table).
Market capitalization of listed domestic companies in Asia, $ billion
Taiwan is not included in the WB report but it is listed in the WFE, it has market capitalization of $1,118.3 B in February 2019 from 1,716 listed companies.
China is wobbling from the ongoing trade dispute with the US and many domestic problems are surfacing today, like huge debts by the corporate sector, state-owned enterprises and local governments.
The Philippines needs to attract more companies to be publicly listed. This will invite more individual and corporate investors and help expand market capitalization. I am not aware of the major reasons why there is low participation by corporations in the local stock market. Could it be the huge minimum capitalization required, big and voluminous SEC requirements, BIR alert of more taxes if companies are listed? Or cultural, companies would rather remain “low key” to preserve their clan-dominated corporate structure and investment?
Hope that such hurdles will be addressed soon. In particular, the DOF-BIR should not be too tax-hungry that they can scare many companies to be more publicly transparent.
PSE BGC bells
There are two forums on the stock market this week. First is the “BusinessWorld Stockmarket Roundtable 2019” on March 25 at Conrad Hotel. The four speakers are Roel Arco Refran, COO of the Philippine Stock Exchange, Michael “Mike” Gerard Enriquez, Chief Investment Officer of Sunlife Financial, Justino “Jun” Calaycay, Jr., Head of Research and Engagement Department of Philstocks Financial, and Marvin Fausto, Business Development Consultant of COL Financial.
Second event is the “Breakfast and Market Update” at the PSE on March 29, exclusive for members of the UP School of Economics Alumni Association. It is co-organized by Hans Sicat, former PSE president and a school alumni.
Last year, the “BusinessWorld Stockmarket Roundtable 2018” was held in February at Makati Shangrila Hotel. The four speakers were Augusto “Gus” Cosio Jr. of First Metro Asset Management, April Lynn Tan of COL Financial Group, Jun Calaycay, Jr. of Philstocks, and Mike Gerard Enriquez of Sunlife.
 
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers
minimalgovernment@gmail.com

Embracing the light

It’s summer 2019 and the sun is beating down hard on the equator. Draught and dying crops are littering the Philippine landscape. Physical but especially mental activity is a hard slog. In the Serengeti Wildlife Reserve in Equatorial Africa, lion prides ignore prey to doze off in the shade for hours. The lions are not being lazy; they are just obeying the rule of efficient energy use. Under the harsh midday sun, the endotherms’ most energy-efficient posture is supine and asleep under the shade.
Westerners who found themselves in the equator have called the natives “lazy” but Dr. Jose Rizal in “The Indolence of the Filipino” had alluded to this partly as “adaptation” to climate. When it’s chilly in the temperate latitudes, there is always a sufficient layering of clothing that keeps one warm inside and physically and mentally alert. In the equator, extreme disrobing does not suffice. Any exertion heats up the body; which in fact gives comfort on a cold and discomfort on a hot day. Heat speeds up oxidation and decay in organics: foodstocks, wood materials, etc., while it supports a plethora of harmful bacteria and viruses. This is the backdrop for the so-called “equatorial paradox” the closer to the equator the lower is per capita income. The equator seems at times like a cruel tyrant exacting high tributes from hapless natives. No wonder that equatorial latitudes, like the Sub-Saharan Africa, host the most abject poverty.
Equatorians can’t be blamed if sometimes they curse the light that brings heat; if sometimes they woe the accident of their birth. But while equatorians can’t change their heritage of solar surfeit, they now can, as in Jujitsu, turn it in their favor. For equatorial poverty, unlike equatorial tyranny, is not destiny.
History shows that technology has allowed humans to transcend the limits of geography. Modern refrigeration has rendered certain closed spaces in the equator suitable for food preservation and for mental and physical activity. I, for one, take refuge in air-cooled coffee shops to think and work. But this comfort has been achieved by burning the by-product of yesterday’s solar radiation, fossil fuel. By the same token have we built a massive system of power generation, transmission and distribution on the back of Michael Faraday’s rotating magnet; furthermore, we have built an immense concrete transportation system to host Nicolaus Otto’s internal combustion engine. We dismissed the possibility that today’s solar abundance can be deployed to loosen the grip of equatorial tyranny with a once valid excuse, that being price differential and intermittence.
That excuse is now kaput. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage technology have changed the calculus of electricity provision and propulsion. Already, under five-cent-per-watt bids have won power supply contract auctions in oil-rich and solar radiation abundant Dubai and Qatar. The Philippines is also richly endowed with solar radiation. New electric vehicles (EVs) now go over 300 miles on one charge. And advances in grid-scale electricity storage employing graphene-based supercapacitors are pushing renewable intermittence into our rear-view mirror. Cost, once the bastion of the fossil-based empire, has changed sides. The sun is truly setting on the empire of Faraday and Otto.
The proverbial crossing of the Rubicon in power coincides with the leap from ethics to economics from “helping mother earth” to “helping the bottom line.” Tree-hugging zealots made news, but it is shrewd capitalists making huge bets in emerging renewable revenue streams that are ramming the gates open. European electricity and gas supplier giant, Eon, has begun divesting its fossil-based assets to concentrate on renewables. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is divesting its oil and gas holdings that have become more risky. Norway’s oil and gas giant, Statoil, is also moving into renewables for reasons now purely economic. At the current furious rate of technical advance, the stranding risk of gas and coal assets is fast ramping up.
The demand side of the power market poses the other stranding risk factor. Large establishments with ample capital, such as malls and supermarkets, will now begin to save and even make money by converting ample idle roof space into solar farms to meet part or all of their needs, to charge grid-scale batteries thus avoiding the cost of diesel-fired backup generators and to shave off peak power demand for a more stable grid power. Or they can rent out these idle roof spaces to new solar power entrepreneurs or retail electricity suppliers. Fossil-free fast food outlets will become commonplace. Residential PVs will also follow suit when the capital constraint is eased. The disruption here will be as immense as any promised by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
That is not to say that government should prohibit new fossil-based investments by the private sector. Market players are better at reading the short and long investment horizon than government and, anyway, they wager their own money in a competitive market. Aboitiz Power is carrying the cost of its mothballed bunker fuel-burning power barges. Privatization spared the NPC and the taxpayers of their stranded cost!
Government can however employ policy “nudges” rather than mandates. The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in government vehicle purchase should progressively rise. New public school and office buildings should now be solar PV-equipped for part of their largely daytime needs besides jump-starting students in the wonders of electrochemistry. EVs could be exempt from number coding. PEZA should now plan for fossil-free ecozones. The seamless integration of distributed and centralized generation requires urgent government attention.
Solar PV and storage technology now allow us to transform the abundance of light from a liability into an enormous asset, one which promises to leapfrog the problem of high electricity cost. But to monetize it, we have to let Capitalism’s creative destruction take its course. Government forbearing, profit calculus and market competition will propel the nation to a bountiful embrace of the light.
 
Raul V. Fabella is a retired professor of the UP School of Economics and a member of the National Academy of Science and Technology. He gets his dopamine fix from hitting tennis balls with wife Teena and bicycling.

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