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N. Korea missile launch tests Biden, Japan

SEOUL/TOKYO — North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the sea near Japan on Thursday, Japan’s prime minister said, fuelling tension ahead of the Tokyo Olympics and ramping up pressure on the Biden administration as it finalizes its North Korea policy.

The missile launches highlight the threat North Korea’s illicit weapons programme poses to its neighbors and the international community, the United States military’s Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement.

The command said it was monitoring the situation and consulting allies.

Japan lodged a formal protest through its embassy in China and said the test threatened peace and safety in the region, while South Korea’s National Security Council expressed deep concern.

Japan’s coastguard said the first missile was detected soon after 7 a.m. and flew about 420 km (260 miles), followed by a second 20 minutes later that flew about 430 km (270 miles), indicating the missiles were short-range weapons.

North Korea has previously test-fired missiles over Japan that were able to carry nuclear warheads and reach anywhere in the United States.

“The first launch in just less than a year represents a threat to peace and stability in Japan and the region and violates UN resolutions,” Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said in comments aired by public broadcaster NHK.

The launches coincided with the start of the Olympic torch relay in Japan on Thursday, beginning a four-month countdown to the summer Games in Tokyo which were delayed from 2020 because of the coronavirus.

Mr. Suga said he would ensure a safe and secure Olympics and “thoroughly discuss” North Korea issues, including the launches, with US President Joseph R. Biden during his visit to Washington next month.

South Korean and US intelligence agencies were analyzing the data of the launch for additional information, the JCS said in a statement.

South Korea’s presidential Blue House will convene an emergency meeting of the national security council to discuss the launches.

There was no official comment from the White House or State Department on the test.

North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon or its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) since 2017, ahead of an historic meeting between leader Kim Jong Un and former US President Donald Trump in 2018.

The Biden administration is in the “final stages” of reviewing its North Korea policy, senior US officials told Reuters this week.

Analysts have noted a change in wording from the previous administration, emphasizing the “denuclearisation of North Korea,” rather than the whole peninsula — a more unilateral position likely to be anathema to Pyongyang.

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the North Korea policy review would come within the context of the administration’s strategy on China, North Korea’s only major ally.

“North Korea’s military activities after reaffirming ties with Beijing raise questions about how China is complicit in sanctions evasion and may be enabling the Kim regime’s threats to the region. This will increase calls in the US and elsewhere to sanction Chinese firms involved in illicit trade,” he said. — Reuters

‘Bubble’ economy in a bubble lockdown?

Now we have a bubble lockdown. In the science of lockdowns, this is isolated lockdown, selective and time-bound. The National Capital Region (NCR), Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal were placed under GCQ or General Community Quarantine from March 23 to April 4.

This new variant of community quarantine is most interesting.

In the last few weeks, the broadsheets reported on the economic managers’ push for reopening the economy “in order to drive recovery and restore jobs.” With mass vaccination still far in the horizon, the President rejected the proposal. Serendipity upheld that Palace decision because daily infection rates peaked like never before, hitting more than 8,000.

The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Rabindra Abeyasinghe explained away this upsurge by describing it as a “complex scenario.” He blamed vaccine optimism and the more contagious variants of coronavirus.

For Health Secretary Francisco Duque, the viral surge was also due to the detection of new variants and increased mobility following the partial reopening of the economy. He also claimed Filipinos were not fully complying with health protocols.

But former Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) advisor Antonio Leachon disagreed and traced this upsurge to “poor decision-making on the part of the government, as well as an emphasis on reopening the economy.” His argument makes much sense.

This is also consistent with the point of Yubal Noah Harari, noted author of 21 Lessons for the 21st Century in the Financial Times last month. Harari explained that while “science has turned (epidemics) into a manageable challenge,” we saw so much death and suffering “because of bad political decisions.”

Putting an end to this pandemic is therefore a public good. We should benefit from new opportunities for the economy to resurrect with more jobs and more business.

What can we expect from a bubble lockdown?

Residents can move freely, with no checkpoints within the travel bubble. But all religious and mass gatherings are banned. While restaurants are allowed to operate, they are limited to outdoor seating, take-out and delivery. Persons 17 years old and younger, and 65 years old and older are locked down in their homes. Curfew hours are enforced between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. While industries continue, fewer workers are allowed.

Apparently, a bubble lockdown would hardly suffice.

With the virus on a rampage, the Metro Manila Council resolved to suspend the operations of gyms, spas, and internet cafes. The Philippine Hospital Association requested the government for staff reinforcements to help provide medical care to COVID patients. The Government finally decided to allow the private sector to procure and administer vaccines; it could not do it alone.

Limited mobility and business operations as well as faster rollout of the vaccines are expected to tame the virus and prevent its transmission.

If the bubble lockdown falls short, the Palace announced “drastic actions” could not be ruled out. This may confirm what the UP OCTA Research Group advised that a two-week curfew might not be enough to curve the rapid spread of the virus.

Whether the Philippines could do 500,000 to one million weekly jabs, as announced by Secretary Carlito Galvez, Jr., remains iffy. It is dependent on the timely arrival of the 160 million doses to the Philippines from different sources. With two jabs each, that volume could indeed cover around 70 million Filipinos to achieve herd immunity. But global supply continues to tighten. The WHO warned that this situation could lead to moral failure.

Playing catch-up, the Philippines cannot afford to lose more time securing enough vaccines and rolling them out fast. There are logistics problems with some of these vaccines which require extremely cold storage facilities.

It now reduces to both a race between the virus and the vaccines, and a race among countries for the vaccines. Some wealthy countries have been reported to be securing vaccines to inoculate the whole of their populations.

How are we doing with what we have — mostly donated, the rest procured?

To pursue Secretary Galvez optimistic scenario, we need 70 weeks to cover 70 million Filipinos, or around the end of September 2022. Conservative estimate puts it at twice longer or 140 weeks, or around the end of 2023, exactly The Economist’s estimate of the completion of the vaccine rollout.

Another approach is former Health Secretary Esperanza Cabral’s. She had a different estimate. She explained that if we go by the progress of the inoculation as we are doing today, that would take 12 years. That is two presidencies away.

We don’t know therefore what signal the Palace was sending when the President announced that “the government cannot simply close down the economy again because it would be a disaster for the Philippines” after declaring the bubble lockdown.

The response of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) to the bubble lockdown was quite hopeful. Secretary Karl Chua observed that the lockdown “increases the risk to timely recovery, but still early in the year so we can still manage.” NEDA continues to stick to its target of attaining a 6.5% to 7.5% real GDP growth.

Or will we see a “bubble” economy under a bubble lockdown?

Hardly, if we refer to an economy marked with a rapid escalation of market value particularly in terms of asset prices. Asset prices are inflated by an exuberant market sentiment. We do not have this today. It’s down in both the real sector and the financial markets.

A “bubble” economy in the Philippine context is a fragile economy today. It doesn’t have to get inflated. UK-based Pantheon Macroeconomics last Wednesday was reported to have predicted a double-dip recession — a recession that is followed by a short-lived recovery and then another recession, with prolonged joblessness and weak output growth. The Philippine economy could not be more fragile than a double dip.

This assessment does not seem to be just a voice in the wilderness. ING Bank did not dismiss such a possibility. One thing was clear to ING Bank: “… the health crisis and the economic struggles of the Philippines are intertwined with the recovery likely never happening until COVID-19 is completely and successfully quelled.”

The Foundation for Economic Freedom also indicated the possibility of a double dip if the restrictions fail to tame the virus and are prolonged.

Union Bank was more forgiving by qualifying its assessment with the ability of the bubble lockdown to curb the infection and the vaccine to be massively rolled out. NEDA’s explanation that “the economy is functional and quarantines are localized. We are on track for growth” was most reassuring even if essentially aspirational.

Which makes the recent pronouncements of some segments of the business community rather short-sighted.

The Employers Association of the Philippines “slammed the government’s move to restore strict quarantine measures and suspension of some economic activities for two weeks stating this will cost billions of pesos and reverse the growth momentum that just started early this year.” With the same message, the Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, sounded more enlightened because their view correctly attributed the economic costs to the viral upsurge which necessitated the quarantine restrictions.

In the science of lockdowns, succession between a few days of work and longer days for timeout is meant to suppress the virus while allowing people to work and make money. We are not exactly in a time of peace; we are in a time of war. We are fighting the war against the virus and COVID-19. During timeout, our health authorities should have strengthened our testing, tracing, isolating and treating facilities. This was hardly done. Throughout our one-year engagement with the virus, we could have stocked up on the vaccines by early signing of agreement with various pharmaceutical companies. Our health authorities dropped the ball and now we might have the cash, thanks to Secretary Sonny Dominguez, but most of the vaccines have been procured by the early birds.

Yes, science has actually made this pandemic rather manageable in other countries.

But we made bad political decisions, after bad political decisions.

Our failure in health mitigation compromised our remaining fiscal and monetary space. We may have the budget but Build, Build, Build may not be executed as planned because of the new restrictions. We are going through this period of bubble lockdown without ayuda (assistance) to the most impoverished of our people or the small business.

While the US was able to administer 125 million doses in about three months, we have barely started. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now looking at the post-pandemic US economy because of quick mass vaccination and the unprecedented fiscal injection of President Joe Biden. Some other countries with huge health challenges one year ago bounced back with a solid combination of public spending and health mitigation. After their own version of bubble lockdowns, they are now looking at some robust economic performance.

The Philippines should prove we tolerate no drugs and economic recovery is no pipe dream.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Give the Devil his due

As in many other times in the turbulent history of this country, the Filipino people’s capacity to endure is once again being severely tested. But the threat to their lives and future isn’t just the rampaging COVID-19 epidemic. It is also the “kill them all” regime of impunity that is demonstrating daily its inability to control the contagion.

The Duterte administration will end in 2022, but Dutertism could still continue to afflict the country for the next six years and even beyond should any of Mr. Duterte’s lackeys, cronies, clones, and surrogates win the presidential election that year. It will mean the continuing use of state terrorism against dissenters, the independent press, and government critics as well as the country’s descent into even worse penury and who knows what other infirmity.

But it is not only the future of Philippine democracy, as limited as it already is, that is at stake but also the very survival of the Filipino people. No nation can survive rank incompetence for long; it kills not only every prospect for meaningful change, but also entire populations, hence the imperative of preparing now for 2022 so as to put an end to the scourge of the past five years.

Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” Moreno and the Bible-thumping but death penalty advocate boxer Manuel Pacquiao, who is also a senator of this unfortunate quasi-republic, have declared that this isn’t the time to think about and talk politics.

But they are wrong; the time is now for the forces of democracy, change and anti-authoritarianism.

For some reason that some observers of the political landscape cannot fathom, Moreno was mentioned by the 1Sambayan coalition during its March 18 launch as among the possible anti-authoritarian, pro-democracy candidates for President in 2022. The others were Senators Nancy Binay and Grace Poe, former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, and Vice-President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo.

Pacquiao was not, and for reasons quite obvious to anyone except himself. He heads the PDP-Laban, the party of President Rodrigo Duterte, of whom he has been an enabler, apologist and loyal ally. But he was apparently so irked that 1Sambayan did not include him in the roster of possible pro-democracy candidates (!) next year that he forgot that he himself has been politicking since he was first mentioned in 2019 by Mr. Duterte as among those he would prefer to succeed him as President.

On the other hand, Moreno has certainly had his eye on running for higher posts since he was Manila’s Vice-Mayor. He wouldn’t have otherwise made it a point to surround himself with publicists and friendly reporters who have made it their business to report on an almost daily basis practically everything the “Yorme” says and does.

It isn’t as if politics, pandemic or no pandemic, were ever far from any politico’s mind. But what is even more to the point is that the May 2022 Presidential election is only a scant 13 months away — and the Duterte ruling coalition has been preparing for it since it came to power in 2016.

Once in power, much of the acts, policies and public declarations of Mr. Duterte himself were calculated to assure his candidates’ winning the mid-term 2019 elections even as some of those candidates themselves began campaigning even before the official campaign period. It has been politics since then, with Mr. Duterte earlier expressing his support for Pacquiao come 2022, and, early this year, his followers’ touting his daughter Sara’s candidacy in a spate of tarpaulins in Metro Manila and other places, and some PDP-Laban personalities’ floating such trial balloons as Duterte loyalist Christopher “Bong” Go’s running for President, to which he said he would be open if Mr. Duterte agrees to be his Vice-Presidential running mate.

To give the Devil his due, one must acknowledge that Go’s boss and company have been exploring their 2022 options since 2016 unlike the so-called opposition. It has taken the independent pro-democracy forces and personalities — retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, former senior government officials like Conchita Morales-Carpio of the Ombudsman’s office, Armin Luistro of Education, and Albert del Rosario of Foreign Affairs, plus labor, party-list and other civil society groups’ representatives — to address what has been the fundamental political issue in this country since 2016: the imperative of restarting the democratization and development process from which human rights and the defense of Philippine sovereignty are inalienable that the present regime has compromised.

The 1Sambayan coalition has the unenviable task of finding and supporting only one pro-democracy, anti-tyranny candidate for President in 2022. It is in fact vital for democratic forces not to fall into the trap fostered by various political groups in 2016 when they fielded six candidates for that post. The result was PDP-Laban candidate Rodrigo Duterte’s getting less than 30% of the votes, but nevertheless winning the Presidency by a plurality because the remaining 70-plus percent was divided among his five rivals. As Justice Carpio pointed out during the 1Sambayan launch, if the 2016 scenario repeats itself in 2022, the pro-democracy forces will lose to the candidate of the Duterte cabal.

That catastrophe can of course still happen. But not only because of the vaulting ambition and focus on self-interest of even those politicians who claim to be reformers and the champions of democracy. It can also happen should the candidate 1Sambayan endorses is ideologically unacceptable — if he or she is too Left or too Right wing, or not Left or Right wing enough — to some coalition members who could then field their own candidate.

There is also the possibility that supposedly anti-despotism pols will run with or without 1Sambayan support, with some even being Duterte camp minions fielded to divide the pro-democracy vote.

To forestall such possibilities, the coalition will have to demonstrate that it indeed has the majority behind it so as to convince every potential candidate to commit to supporting whoever it finally endorses. But its endorsement should be based on an extensive, multi-sectoral consultation on who among the potential supposedly pro-democracy candidates it has mentioned has the support of at least the majority of the electorate. It will not do for that endorsement to be solely based only on the say-so of the conveners and the groups they represent. For this enterprise, 1Sambayan can enlist the support of a reputable polling firm and the independent media and journalists’ organizations. They have as much of a stake in government’s respecting the right to free expression as everyone else, and would welcome the opportunity to help protect it.

A truly democratic consultation is necessary not just because Sara Duterte-Carpio has criticized what she thought would be the “authoritarian” process 1Sambayan would use to decide whom to endorse.

She is, of course, right in implying that no hint of elite entitlement should taint a consciously democratic undertaking.

Even the most egregious tyrant can sound like a democrat — or, as Shakespeare put it, even the Devil can quote Scripture. But what really matters is that the pro-democracy, pro-human rights and pro-rule of law candidate who in 2022 will face her or whoever else — whether Pacquiao, Go, or some other equally worthy paragon of moral and intellectual gravitas from the Duterte clique — should be a true representative of the democratization process that instead of defending and nurturing, her father’s regime has instead so grievously imperiled.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Betsy Westendorp’s Passages

Betsy Westendorp is a radiantly beautiful artist. At her magnificent exhibition of 100 artworks, she declared, “I am very happy about this retrospective… It’s a dream! It’s so exciting that it’s unbelievable.

“Carmen (her artist-daughter Carmen Brias Westendorp) is so helpful, relaxing and cheerful. She’s a blessing,” she enthused.

The retrospective she was referring to was Passages: Celebrating the Artistic Journeys of Betsy Westendorp, was on view at the Metropolitan Museum of Manila.

“The Metropolitan Museum of Manila retrospective of Besty Westendorp is an affirmation of her lifetime passion for her art. It is also a wondrous revelation of her deep love for her family, her caring friends, and for the country — querida Filipinas — she painted and adopted with every sunrise and sunset,” remarked Met Museum President Tina Colayco.

Cid Reyes, author, art critic, and artist, wrote in the catalogue, A Celebration of Besty Westendorp’s Artistic Journeys:

“Our very own Betsy Westendorp is in line with … historical precedence. Beyond measure, she has enriched the artistic heritage of her adopted country, the Philippines.

“In recognition of Westendorp’s valued contribution to Philippine art, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo awarded her with The Presidential Medal of Merit, second only in distinction to the title of National Artist.

“In 1976, His Majesty King Juan Carlos of Spain bestowed on Betsy Westendorp the distinguished Lazo de Dama, the equivalent of knighthood for ladies. This exclusive Order was originally created by His Majesty King Ferdinand VII of Spain in 1815.

“… Her great body of works consists of portraits of the society elite of Madrid and Manila. Her landscapes of Philippine terrain, seascapes of Manila Bay, her colourful celebration of Philippine flora …the various species of the native orchid, and literally, in the sunset of her years, the grand symphonic cloudscapes across Philippine skies — never depicted by any Filipino artist.”

Many admirers of the Spanish-born artist and life-long resident of the Philippines have collected her exquisite portraits, flowers (orchids, hydrangeas, poppies), landscapes and breathtaking sunsets. The word “Atmosferografias” was used by her friend, the art critic Elena Flores, to describe Westendorp’s cloudscapes.

Mr. Reyes wrote, “The spirit is where the imagination lies… taking refuge in the manifest expressions of creativity, communicating by the instruments of a flat surface and a multitude of colored pigments. Suddenly, we are rendered mute by the evocations of Nature cast in stupendous, overwhelming space.

“Westendorp’s paintings are her personal journey into the Sublime.… The audience participates in the emotional awe and turmoil …

“Romance… is the unclouded origin of her cloud paintings.”

After a whirlwind courtship in Spain, prominent businessman Antonio Brias brought his young bride Betsy to the Philippines. He used to take her for walks along Manila Bay to watch the famous sunset. The alluring images were imprinted in her photographic memory. Throughout the decades, long after her beloved husband had passed, and when she was living in Madrid, she would continue to paint her impressions of the Philippine sunset. She has spent many years going back and forth and considers Manila her home too. Her good friends and countless admirers are here.

Mr. Reyes revealed, “She is a disciplined experimenter of optical alchemy with a technique that divides its focus between an austere palette of carnelian reds and warm oranges and luxuriant masses of floating forms… Are these impressionistic depictions of cumulus or simply gestural brushstrokes of abstraction?”

“I paint not the water, not the sea. There is no movement in the water. It is like a mirror,” the artist once remarked.

Some of Ms. Westendorp’s paintings are reminiscent of 19th century British Romantic painter J.M.W. Turner who painted dramatic stormy seascapes with rain and wind.

“She crosses the line seamlessly traversing from one to the other … never disconcerted by the pleasurable spontaneity that moves her to navigate the regions of what the artist calls ‘unplanned’ art-making.”

Architect Manny Miñana commented, “Our retrospective committee, made up of Dannie Alvarez, our exhibition curator; Cid Reyes, our catalog writer/editor; our members Silvana Ancellotti-Diaz, Denise Weldon- Miñana and myself, worked very closely with Met President Tina Colayco and the Met team to bring Passages to life, despite the challenges of a pandemic. It was unprecedented and frankly, remarkable how we received enthusiastic firm support from our sponsors and lenders especially in the time of COVID, culling over 100 paintings chronicling the life work of the dearly-loved artist Betsy Westendorp. We are grateful for being able to share their retrospective with our countrymen.”

Allow me to share a brief history of last year’s events.

To celebrate International Women’s month in March 2020, Instituto Cervantes de Manila (ICM) director Javier Galván organized Creadoras: A Tribute to Betsy Westendorp with women artist-friends — Ivy Avellena-Cosio, Phyllis Zaballero, Victoria Zubiri, Eva Baró Giuliana Van Gall, Inma Ortoll, her daughter Carmen Brias, granddaughter Cristina Grisar Brias, and this writer.

The centerpiece of the exhibit was Transito (Passage), Ms. Westendorp’s large-scale painting of red clouds that was created during the tragedy of her daughter’s sudden passing a few years ago. She donated this stunning artwork to ICM.

Passage was also a centerpiece of the Met’s retrospective.

The ECQ lockdown started the day before the planned opening. The mounted paintings remained at ICM in Intramuros for eight months. A webinar with an online exhibit was hosted by the Intramuros Administration last July. In November, ICM launched the formal virtual exhibition with a documentary and the haunting music “La Belleza” by Spanish artist-musician-composer Luis Eduardo Auté who was born in the Philippines.

As an admirer and artist-friend of Betsy, I can only dream of being able to paint with a fraction of her vision, talent, skill, style, and eloquent sensitivity in various media. She is a master of various media — oil, gouache, pastel, mixed media oil and acrylic. Her delicate strokes and powerful paintings touch the heart and inspire the spirit to soar to the sky and to be among the towering clouds at sunset.

Ms. Westendorp inspires all artists. She has achieved what we all want to achieve.

Enhorabuena, Betsy! We wish you love, a long life, more art and happiness with your family and friends in both countries.

The retrospective catalogue was published by DLSU Publishing. Special thanks to DLSU President Br. Ray Suplido FSC and publisher David Jonathan Bayot.

The successful Passages retrospective was held at the Metropolitan Museum of Manila from Jan. 29, 2020 to March 15, 2021. The virtual exhibit/documentary can be viewed on FaceBook and YouTube.

 

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

The Philippines’ deadliest killers. And it’s not COVID

There’s a palpable sense of panic engulfing the Metro. Or at least panic amongst the political ruling class. The reason is the increase in COVID-19 cases the past few weeks, leading to (at this time of writing) exactly 86,200 active cases.

Spurred on by a gleeful media, cinemas and museums were predictably ordered closed, curfews reinstituted, restaurants were ordered to provide mainly take-out services and accept outdoor dining but only at 50% capacity, and — more predictably — prohibited public masses and stringently limited other religious services. Yet, behind it all, certain facts need further examining.

One fact worth revisiting is the obvious one: total cases, which will never go down. And with the coronavirus here to stay, the numbers will just keep going up until the end of the world. Why liberal media keeps harping on that number is truly baffling.

Another is, while keeping a tab on active cases is helpful, it’s still secondary to the truly important number which is hospital occupancy. At the moment, despite a nearly 200% rise in active cases from just a few weeks ago, our national hospital rate is holding at 40.9%, with ICU’s at 52.7%.

And this should be noted: severe or critical cases, which the Department of Health (DoH) itself stated as the ones in actual need of hospital care, remain at 1.8%. This means that of our total active cases, just around 1,552 are in need to be admitted to the hospital. But even assuming all of those severe or critical cases are located in the National Capital Region, the NCR has a total of 8,231 COVID-19 designated hospital beds, with 738 of those ICU beds. And indeed, the DoH data shows that only 57.9% (as of March 21) of such NCR beds are occupied (with ICUs at 73.86%).

The other important number is deaths. And the DoH tracker site itself shows a downward trend in the number of COVID-19 deaths, actually a fall of 90% from a high in August 2020 to the week of March 11-17, 2021.

Then there is the recently released data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA): the period between January to December 2020 saw 575,875 total deaths. The leading cause of which are heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Surprisingly, 2020 saw 2% less total deaths than the 2015-2019 average. As for COVID-19, we need refer first to PSA’s Explanatory Note: “COVID-19 deaths in this release refer to both confirmed and probable cases as of registration, whereas figures released by DoH were deaths from confirmed cases only. Coding of causes of death is based on the International Statistical Classification … governed by the World Health Organization.” Thus, confirmed cases are those which were “confirmed by a laboratory test,” while those probable/unconfirmed/not identified were those “where testing was not completed or inconclusive.”

News media were quick to report that 27,967 died from COVID-19 in 2020. In truth, the only confirmed COVID-19 deaths were 8,209. Making it the 6th lowest cause of death in the Philippines, just a notch higher than transport accidents (8,017). Indeed, confirmed COVID-19 deaths constitute merely 1.4% of total deaths.

Compare that to heart disease (99,680 or 17.3%) or diabetes (37,265 or 6.5%). More on those two later. With regard to viral and transmissible diseases, pneumonia killed 32,574 (or 5.7%), while tuberculosis caused 17,433 deaths (or 3%).

But what’s interesting about pneumonia and tuberculosis is that they actually went down by a significant number: a 48.1% decrease for pneumonia from 2019 and a 25% decrease for tuberculosis from its 2015-2019 average. Interesting because COVID-19 has been compared to flu or pneumonia, particularly when discussing IFR’s or CFR’s. So, to see pneumonia deaths (the 5th highest cause of death in the Philippines) go down 24,256 in one year is patently deserving of deeper investigation, particularly when there’s supposedly 19,758 probable/“not identified” COVID-19 deaths.

The other is the fact that tuberculosis remains a far deadlier killer, despite having had a vaccine longer, despite having been around for far more years, and despite being more transmissible than COVID-19. And yet we never locked down our country or imposed mandatory mask requirements for that.

The other number that should make everyone pause is the item designated as “intentional self-harm,” which very likely means suicides. In 2020, the year of the lockdown, the country saw 3,529 suicides, a 25.7% increase or 721 more suicides than 2019. Last year also saw nationwide school closures, which must be emphasized because most of the suicides were from the 15- to 29-year-old range. Which is ironic because that happens to be precisely the age range least seriously affected by COVID-19. So much for protecting our young.

Finally, going back to heart disease and diabetes, the top and 4th top killers in the Philippines: PSA 2020 data showed heart disease deaths went up by 2.3% and diabetes 7.8%. Guess what’s amongst the biggest contributing factors for heart disease and diabetes? Physical inactivity and overeating.

Now guess again if lockdowns kill.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula

PBA set to reassess tack for its Season 46 amid virus cases spike

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo, Senior Reporter

THE health pandemic has forced the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) to revisit its plans for its Season 46.

Targeted to begin on a rescheduled date of April 18, Asia’s first play-for-pay league is highly likely to make tweaks to the start of its new season because of the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the country, moving government authorities to put Metro Manila and nearby provinces in a two-week bubble.

Under the bubble, which started early this week and will lapse on April 4, movement in covered areas is limited to only those considered as essential (e.g., work and buy provisions) and people are encouraged to stay at home in the hopes of mitigating the spread of the coronavirus, which now has a number of variants.

On Monday, the country saw the number of new cases tally a record of 8,019, with experts and researchers suggesting that the trend could continue if measures to slow down the spread were not put in place.

“We won’t be following up on our request [to start the season] to the government for now because we know well the situation we are in. It will be tough to make a program and schedule at this moment,” said PBA Commissioner Willie Marcial on pba.ph.

“We’ll wait for April 5, the end of the two-week IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force) bubble. We’ll wait for their announcement, then we’ll assess the situation,” Mr. Marcial continued.

The league had sent a letter to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases asking approval for it to start its new season in April.

It originally pegged the season kickoff on April 11, but then delayed it by a week to give the teams more time to prepare and for the PBA to evaluate further the direction it would take, including a suitable venue for its tournaments.

The PBA successfully held a “bubble” tournament last year at Clark City in Angeles, Pampanga, to salvage its pandemic-halted Season 45. It reportedly cost the league P65 million to P70 million to stage.

It is hoping not to do a full bubble for the new season — eyeing instead a closed circuit setup where the participants’ movements are limited to home-game venue-home — because of the expected high cost of doing one, but something they might consider anew if the situation with the pandemic does not improve.

While they lament having to make further changes for the new season, Mr. Marcial said such have to be made to ensure success just as he expressed the league’s readiness to adjust to what it is dealt with.

For Season 46, the PBA is looking to stage two conferences running for 10 months and the league’s inaugural 3×3 tournament.

“We’re looking forward to a 10-month PBA season. We want to give as much as basketball as possible to the fans,” said PBA Chairman Ricky Vargas in a recent press briefing.

He also assured that the PBA is in good standing despite the challenges and difficulties presented to the league the last two years.

PHL sportswriters group to hand out annual awards in virtual ceremonies this weekend

ATHLETE-FRONTLINERS LIKE TRIATHLETES CLAIRE ADORNA AND NIKKO HUELGAS will be given a special citation at the virtual PSA Awards Night this weekend. — PSA FACEBOOK PAGE

THE Philippine Sportswriters Association (PSA) will hand out its annual awards in special virtual awarding ceremonies this weekend.

Set to happen on Sunday, March 27, the awards, which has been modified to an online event to adapt to the prevailing conditions with the pandemic, fete sports personalities who stood out despite the trying times last year.

The ceremonies will be held virtually at the TV5 Media Center in Mandaluyong City.

Leading the awardees is golfer Yuka Saso, who is the PSA Athlete of the Year.

Ms. Saso performed well in her professional debut year in 2020 just as the sporting world was trying to grapple with the effects brought about by the pandemic.

The Asian Games double gold medalist won two straight titles in the rich Japan Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) in 2020 and had a strong 13th place finish in the US Open in her first crack at a major LPGA championship later in the year.

It will be Ms. Saso’s second PSA Athlete of the Year award.

Weightlifter Hidilyn Diaz, meanwhile, leads athletes to be given citations for the excellence they showed in their respective fields.

The 2016 Rio Olympics silver medalist completed a three-gold sweep in the women’s 55 kg division of the Roma Weightlifting World Cup in Italy last year just before the pandemic to virtually assure her of a berth in the rescheduled Tokyo Olympics this year.

Also to receive citations are Ms. Diaz’s co-weightlifter Vanessa Sarno, Olympic-bound Eumir Felix Marcial and Irish Magno of boxing, and pole vaulter EJ Obiena, the skateboarding pair of Margielyn Didal and Motic Panugalinog, the track and field quartet of Kristina Knott, Natalie Uy, William Morrison, and Christine Hallasgo, and James Delos Santos of karate.

In the list as well are Sander Severino of chess, sambo’s Sydney Tancontian, cyclist George Oconer and the Philippine Navy-Standard Insurance cycling team, and the four major leagues that successfully held their respective seasons in a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic, namely: the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA), Philippine Football League (PFL), Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3, and the National Basketball League (NBL).

A special citation, too, will be given to athlete-frontliners who are serving during this time of the pandemic.

Southeast Asian Games gold medal winners Nikko Huelgas and Claire Adorna of triathlon, Philippine men’s volleyball coach Dante Alinsunurin and players Jessie Lopez and Ranran Abadilla, UST Tigresses mentor Kungfu Reyes, and Philippine women’s national team member Jovelyn Gonzaga are some of the athlete-frontliners who are serving the country.

The Association of Boxing Alliances in the Philippines (ABAP) is the National Sports Association of the Year for having four athletes qualifying for the Olympic Games, namely Mr. Marcial and Ms. Magno, Nesthy Petecio and Carlo Paalam.

Philippine Olympic Committee President Abraham Tolentino, meanwhile, is the recipient of the President’s Award while Philippine Basketball Association Commissioner Willie Marcial will be honored with the Executive of the Year award.

Mr. Tolentino, in his capacity as congressman of the eighth district of Cavite, was instrumental in the inclusion of a P180-million item to the “Bayanihan to Recover as One Act II” that benefited athletes and coaches belonging to the national team.

Mr. Marcial, for his part, is being honored for successfully leading the PBA restart last year under a “bubble” setup.

Sports pillars former Gintong Alay Project Director Joey Romasanta, ex-PBA Commissioner Sonny Barrios, and the late Ambassador and basketball godfather Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr. will be honored with a Lifetime Achievement Award, while to be cited as major awardees are 2020 world boxing champions Johnriel Casimero and Pedro Taduran, along with young, world-ranked tennis player Alex Eala.

Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao, meanwhile, is the fan favorite awardee.

The PSA Special Awards Night will be aired on March 28 over One Sports+ from 7 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.  — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Own goal denies France win; Turkey stuns the Netherlands

PARIS — Holders France got their World Cup qualifying campaign off to a disappointing start with a 1-1 draw at home to Ukraine on Wednesday while Turkey pulled off an impressive 4-2 win at home to the Netherlands, powered by a Burak Yilmaz hat trick.

Croatia, 2018 runners-up, slumped to a shock 1-0 defeat away to Slovenia, while Belgium continued their remarkable run in qualifiers by coming from behind to beat Wales (3-1) at home.

Ireland ended a seven-game drought by scoring twice away to Serbia but still got beaten 3-2, while Czech Republic routed Estonia (6-2) in the biggest win of the night and Portugal scraped past minnows Azerbaijan (1-0) courtesy of an own goal.

Antoine Griezmann put France in charge of their Group D game against Ukraine to move level with David Trezeguet as his country’s fourth all-time top scorer.

Ukraine, who were hammered 7-1 by France in a UEFA Nations League game last October, leveled in the second half through a Presnel Kimpembe own goal.

The visitors held on for the draw despite having no shots on target, although Kimpembe spurned a chance to grab a last-gasp winner and make amends for his error.

The result left Didier Deschamps’s side and Ukraine level with Finland and Bosnia in Group D after they drew 2-2.

Turkey have not qualified for the World Cup since finishing third at the 2002 edition, but got off to a flying start in their bid to make it to Qatar next year by beating the Netherlands in Group G thanks to a ruthless display from the 35-year-old Yilmaz.

Yilmaz opened the scoring in the 14th minute with a deflected shot, followed by a penalty, while Hakan Calhanoglu grabbed Turkey’s third goal early in the second half before goals in quick succession from Davy Klaasen and Luuk de Jong gave the Netherlands hope of a comeback.

Yilmaz emphatically ended those hopes by completing his treble from a free kick.

Belgium got off to a poor start when Harry Wilson gave Wales the lead in the 10th minute in Group E, but Kevin de Bruyne and Thorgan Hazard quickly replied to put them in front before a Romelu Lukaku penalty clinched a 20th win in 21 qualifiers for Roberto Martinez’s side.

HOSTS QATAR WIN FRIENDLY
Qatar beat 10-man Luxembourg (1-0) in a friendly in Hungary thanks to a goal from striker Mohammed Muntari in the 2022 hosts’ first match in a set of games after being included as a guest team in Group A, although their matches will not count towards the qualification process.

Serbia lead Group A after Aleksandar Mitrović came off the bench to score twice and complete a comeback win over Ireland, who grabbed a first international goal in 678 minutes when Alan Browne headed them in front, only for Dušan Vlahović to equalize shortly before half time.

Elsewhere in Group A, Portugal needed an own goal to beat Azerbaijan in their ‘home’ game, which was played in Turin due to coronavirus restrictions. — Reuters

Milo launches new campaign in line with building champions

MILO Philippines continues to be resilient in seeing through its vision of using sports in building champion citizens as it recently launched its new campaign “Mula Noon Hanggang Ngayon, Tuloy ang Pagiging Champion.”

The latest campaign comes off the heels of Milo’s umbrella online sports program — the MILO Home Court, which served as the brand’s breakthrough initiative to pivot its signature on-ground sports activities to online.

In the new campaign, Milo presents ways for parents to help their children jumpstart and propel their champion dreams at home amid the prevailing conditions with the pandemic.

“It’s very challenging how to keep our children active while staying at home, and this campaign will ensure that there are ways,” said Milo Sports Manager Lester Castillo at the online Philippine Sportswriters Association Forum on Tuesday of their latest brand campaign.

Milo said the “Mula Noon Hanggang Ngayon, Tuloy ang Pagiging Champion” campaign combines physical activity and studying geared towards helping nourish children’s dreams for success.

To help it in its push, Milo tapped products of the Milo BEST Academy, which include former Philippine Basketball Association star Jerry Codinera and Filipino-American US NCAA Division 1-bound player Ella Fajardo, to serve as inspiration for children.

It also partnered with long-time collaborator Department of Education to make sure its campaign message reaches schoolchildren and its instructional materials and drills be included in their daily activities at home.

In line with the campaign, Milo has distributed over five million PE kits nationwide and is in the process of distributing printed learning modules to students. — MASM

Brooklyn Nets dealt 30-pt. loss by Utah Jazz

DONOVAN Mitchell contributed 27 points, seven assists and six rebounds to guide NBA-leading Utah past the short-handed Brooklyn Nets (118-88) on Wednesday night in Salt Lake City, giving the Jazz their first three-game winning streak in a month.

A night after leading Brooklyn to a 116-112 win at Portland, James Harden didn’t play against Utah because of a sore neck. The Nets, who had won 16 of 18, were without stars Kevin Durant (hamstring) and Kyrie Irving (family matter) yet again.

Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanović each scored 18 points and Georges Niang added 15 for the Jazz. Those three and Mitchell combined to hit 17 3-pointers, including five apiece by Mitchell and Niang. — Reuters

Tokyo Olympics torch relay to start in Fukushima’s shadow

TOKYO — The Olympic torch relay will start in Fukushima on Thursday, kicking off a four-month countdown to the Summer Games in Tokyo, delayed from 2020 and the first ever organized during a global pandemic.

Some 10,000 runners will take the torch across Japan’s 47 prefectures, including far-flung islands, starting from the site of the 2011 quake and tsunami that killed about 20,000 people, highlighting the government’s “Reconstruction Olympics” theme.

The first section will not have spectators to avoid large crowds and roadside onlookers elsewhere will have to wear masks and socially distance along the way as Japan battles the deadly virus and scrambles to vaccinate its people.

The starting ceremony will be held at J-Village in Fukushima, a sports complex converted into a staging ground for workers decommissioning the crippled nuclear power plant that caused tens of thousands to flee.

On Thursday, members of the Japanese national women’s soccer team will use the Olympic flame, flown in from Greece, to light the torch.

The relay, which will culminate with the Olympic opening ceremony on July 23, has been hit by several high-profile runner cancelations as celebrities and top-level athletes have pulled out, citing late notice and worries over the pandemic.

The opening ceremony — originally planned for thousands of fans as a celebration of Japan’s recovery — will be closed to the public. It will feature a drum concert and dance performances by a group of residents from Fukushima, followed by a children’s choir.

Japan has fared better than most countries during the pandemic, with fewer than 9,000 coronavirus deaths. But a third wave of infections has pushed the numbers to record highs, triggering a state of emergency in Tokyo and other areas that was lifted this week.

The majority of the public are against the Olympics being held as scheduled, polls show, and Japan is the slowest among advanced economies with its vaccination rollout.

At Fukushima, J-Village will be decorated with local flowers arranged using Japan’s traditional ikebana techniques. Japan has spent nearly $300 billion to revive the disaster-hit region.

But many locals are apprehensive about the Games, as areas around the plant remain off-limits, worries about radiation linger and many who left have settled elsewhere. Decommissioning will take up to a century and cost billions of dollars. — Reuters

Taking a step back

Don’t for a moment be fooled by the Raptors’ victory over the Nuggets yesterday. For all the celebrating they did following their brush with success against hitherto-surging opponents, they remain, for lack of a better term, lost and, evidently, in transition. They hadn’t won in a close to a month, with the unfamiliar swoon wreaking havoc on the camaraderie that fueled their championship run in 2019. Just recently, head coach Nick Nurse and acknowledged linchpin Pascal Siakam even had a confrontation that required others to step in after they suffered an eighth straight setback.

Granted, winning over the Nuggets, starring Most Valuable Player candidate Nikola Jokić, is no mean feat, never mind the visitors’ handicap playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. That said, the Raptors should find no comfort in the development. At 18-26, they’re currently 11th in the Eastern Conference, with management apparently set on implementing a changing of the guard that’s tantamount to a rebuild. On the way out, and likely prior to today’s trade deadline, are erstwhile franchise cornerstone Kyle Lowry and the much-improved Norman Powell.

Perhaps the Raptors’ mind-set, and standing, would have been different were they not time and again beset by significant personnel absences due to injuries and safety protocols. That said, there can be no arguing with the result, which has them on the fringes of the playoffs and in no position to contend for the hardware. Given the turn of events, the front office has deemed it best to, at the very least, explore the viability of taking a step back in the immediate term and laying the groundwork for future advancement.

For the Raptors, the projected expense of accepting a fall from grace, however temporary, isn’t inconsiderable; parting ways with vital cogs, and especially Lowry, comes with intangible cost. Then again, they may well have little choice, and not simply because doing nothing goes against president of hoops operations Masai Ujiri’s predilections. Which is to say they’ll be hurting either way. The only question is what path they ultimately deem will subject them to less pain.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

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