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Regional Updates (04/13/21)

LRT-1 operations to be suspended for 2 weekends

LIGHT Rail Manila Corp. (LRMC), the private operator of Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1), announced on Tuesday that it would suspend train operations for two weekends in April to continue its maintenance works. “The shutdown on April 17–18 and April 24–25, 2021 will allow LRMC to complete the remaining maintenance and rehabilitation works started during the Holy Week,” the company said in an e-mailed statement. It said the works to be carried would cover the maintenance of trains, stations, and various systems including the scheduled replacement of overhead catenary wires. “The additional days will also accelerate the preparations needed for the commercial use of the new Generation-4 train sets in Q4 2021,” it added. On April 5, LRMC said it had started increasing the speed of LRT-1 from 40 kilometers per hour (kph) to 60 kph after improvement activities. The 36-year-old railway system, which was previously operated by the Light Rail Transit Authority and the Department of Transportation and Communications, is designed to run at a maximum speed of 60 kph, according to LRMC, but it was reduced to 40 kph in 2011 because of the deteriorating condition of its tracks.  LRMC started operating LRT-1 in 2015, and invested P11.6 billion for the railway system’s rehabilitation, restoration, and upgrade, the company noted. — Arjay L. Balinbin

2 wounded in roadside explosion in Basilan town; IS-linked group leader killed in Marawi

A SOLDIER and one civilian were wounded in a roadside explosion in Tipo-Tipo, Basilan Monday morning, an incident that the military described as a “desperate” act of the Abu Sayyaf group. “The Abu Sayyaf Group tends to conduct desperate attacks since their weakened manpower and capability can no longer withstand the military’s all-out offensives. They engage in inhumane attacks to gain popularity and to show off their potentials. So, I urge the peace-loving people of Basilan to remain vigilant and immediately report any suspicious person or object in their vicinity,” Lt. Gen. Corleto S. Vinluan, Jr., commander of the Western Mindanao Command (WestMinCom), said in a statement released late Monday. The blast from the improvised explosive device took place in Barangay Baguindan of the coastal town where troops were conducting mobile patrol. The two wounded were immediately taken to the hospital. “The victims are now in stable condition,” said Brig. Gen. Domingo B. Gobway, commander of the Joint Task Force Basilan. The island province of Basilan is considered among the success stories in terms of addressing local terrorism and has been relatively free from extremist violence. “We are utilizing all available resources to prevent the lawless elements from wreaking havoc in the peaceful communities and victimizing our soldiers and the innocent civilians,” Mr. Vinluan said.

MARAWI
Meanwhile, the WestMinCom also reported that a sub-leader of the ISIS-linked Daulah Islamiyah group, identified as Usop Nasif, was killed during a law enforcement operation in Marawi City early Monday morning. Seven police officers and one soldier were wounded during the gunfight at the terrorist leader’s hideout. “Based on the report from the ground, the wife of Nasif, identified as Almaira Panduma, was also wounded during the clash and was also brought to Amai Pakpak Medical Center for medical treatment,” said Brig. Gen. Jose Maria Cuerpo II, commander of the 103rd Infantry Brigade. The Daulah Islamiyah group was among those involved in the 2017 siege of Marawi City. — MSJ

Malacañang withholds ‘urgent’ certification from 3rd stimulus bill

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte will not certify as urgent the proposed third stimulus law, and will instead work to identify sources of stimulus funds that will not bust the 8.9% budget deficit cap, his spokesman said.

“Ang ginagamit natin ngayon ay ang ating budget for 2021 (All we can use now is the 2021 budget),” spokesman Herminio L. Roque, Jr. said at a televised briefing Tuesday.

Citing Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III, Mr. Roque said the economic team instead proposes to keep the deficit cap intact, and will work with Congress to find funds that will not cause the government to exceed it.

Mr. Roque said Monday that the government can no longer extend additional assistance to low-income households affected by quarantine restrictions due to lack of funds.

The leadership of the House of Representatives has called on the executive branch to hasten the passage of House Bill No. 8031 or the proposed Bayanihan to Arise as One Act, informally known as Bayanihan III.

About P1.7 billion has been disbursed so far by the government’s assistance program for residents of areas affected by the new lockdown, Social Welfare Secretary Rolando Joselito D. Bautista said at a televised meeting with President Rodrigo R. Duterte Monday night.

Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chair Benjamin D. Abalos, Jr. has said Metro Manila mayors plan to ask the government to extend the 15-day period for the distribution of the aid.

Mr. Abalos said the local officials are struggling to disburse the financial assistance within the period set by the Department of the Interior and Local Government, due in part to concerns about crowd control. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

House Speaker says search is on for sources of funding for Bayanihan III

PHILSTAR

SPEAKER Lord Allan Jay Q. Velasco said economic managers are studying how to fund the proposed third stimulus package designed to revive the economy.

In a statement Tuesday, Mr. Velasco said following a meeting with the Department of Budget and Management and the Department of Finance last week that both departments are looking into possible funding sources for the proposed Bayanihan to Arise as One Act, known informally as Bayanihan III.

“I am very thankful to (Finance) Secretary (Carlos G.) Dominguez (III) and (Budget) Secretary (Wendel E.) Avisado for recognizing the importance of Bayanihan III in addressing financial gaps to better manage the government’s response to the impact of the pandemic,” Mr. Velasco said.

Mr. Velasco and Marikina City Rep. Stella Luz A. Quimbo filed the measure in February, the bill, if passed, would be the third pandemic law after the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act and the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act.

“We are extremely hopeful for the passage of Bayanihan III, which is a much bigger, well-targeted and proportionate stimulus package that would help struggling Filipinos and revive our pandemic-ravaged economy,” he said, adding that legislators hope to approve the bill at committee level before Congress resumes session on May 17.

The measure is currently pending with the House Committee on Economic Affairs. On Monday, Albay Rep. Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda said the bill could be approved by the committee this week at the earliest.

The proposed economic stimulus fund will be used to provide assistance to households affected by the lockdown and industries affected severely by the economic downturn. It will also fund procurement of medicine and vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Mr. Salceda has said the bill is currently at P370 billion, with legislators exploring ways to fund the measure without exceeding the targeted deficit cap. He is proposing amendments to temporarily increase the dividends due from government-owned and -controlled corporations to 75% of their profits from 50%. — Gillian M. Cortez

UK companies exploring possible investment in meat, machinery projects

REUTERS

INQUIRIES from British companies have increased in the past six weeks mainly from meat and machinery companies, British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Executive Director Chris Nelson said.

“We’ve had more inquiries in the last month to six weeks than we’ve had for a while,” he told ANC Tuesday.

He said that the increased interest was in part due to marketing efforts and the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.

“You gotta look at Brexit as well. Companies obviously have Brexit (in mind) so they’re obviously having to do a lot more paperwork or activities than before, and therefore I think they’re looking at other markets and opportunities,” he said in a phone interview.

The British meat industry, he told ANC, is interested in the country due to a year-long reduction of tariffs on pork imports done to address a supply shortage.

Inflation hit 4.5% in March, with meat prices posting 20.9% growth after an African Swine Fever outbreak caused a surge in pork prices.

“Obviously, there’s a one-year move to allow pork imports and there, the British industry, we have significant interest,” he said, confirming that there are British companies interested in exporting to the Philippines.

“What the British consumer likes (in meat) is actually the opposite of what the Filipino consumer (likes), so there’s a good mix in terms of opportunities… we see that as an opportunity to assist and also to bring down those prices.”

Agriculture groups have appealed against the tariff reduction, saying that it would hurt hog growers.

Mr. Nelson also said that British food and beverage, machinery, and safety and security businesses have been showing interest.

“We also have (interest) in terms of safety and security because obviously coronavirus has made changes in the workplace and we’re working with a company on that.”

He added in a phone interview that potential investments could start materializing towards the end of 2021.

The chamber has been supporting economic liberalization measures, including retail trade liberalization.

Mr. Nelson in October said that the British chamber continues to seek investors in the retail as well as the food and beverage sectors despite the pandemic, banking on the recovery of the economy in the long term. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Animal disease research center to be established in Nueva Ecija

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

AN ANIMAL disease research center will be established in Nueva Ecija to improve surveillance and of diseases likely to cross borders, such as African Swine Fever (ASF). 

Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar signed Memorandum Circular No. 5 on April 8 authorizing the center’s establishment.

He said that the center will serve as the repository for animal vaccines and other equipment for disease management; provide planning and risk analysis expertise; and train animal health workers.

“This project envisions the creation and operation of the center that shall lead the conduct of surveillance, diagnosis and control, mapping, epidemiology, timely information dissemination, research and emergency management in case of the emergence of transboundary animal diseases,” Mr. Dar said.

Mr. Dar said Central Luzon State University (CLSU) in the Science City of Muñoz, Nueva Ecija will allocate at least 10,000 square meters for the construction of the center, adding that funding will come from Republic Act No. 11494 or the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act.

According to the memorandum, the DA’s Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) will partner with state universities to implement the project such as CLSU, Cavite State University, Central Bicol State University, Central Mindanao University, Isabela State University, Visayas State University, Tarlac State University, Cagayan State University, Don Mariano Marcos Memorial State University, and Pampanga State Agricultural University.

“The BAI will also conduct collaborative activities with the state universities and colleges, and will designate personnel at the center should the need arise,” according to the memorandum.

CLSU will be in charge of hiring personnel and hosting the center for various development projects of government agencies, veterinary colleges, and research institutions.

It added that state universities and colleges should be accredited for the testing of transboundary animal diseases such as ASF, and assist in information campaigns and disease prevention, among others.

In a virtual briefing Tuesday, Agriculture Spokesman Noel O. Reyes said the construction of the project is expected to be finished within the year.

“It has laboratories that, among others, will… develop rapid test kits with the help of local technicians,” Mr. Reyes said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

High infection rates seen damaging contact-intensive industries — IMF

PHILSTAR

ASIA-PACIFIC economies including the Philippines will experience a sluggish recovery in “contact-intensive” industries due to the continued surge in coronavirus infections, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Growth in the ASEAN economies has been marked down to 4.5% given still high COVID-19 caseloads in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, which will slow the pace of normalization in contact-intensive sectors,” Jonathan Ostry, acting director of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department, said in a statement Tuesday.

The IMF in its World Economic Outlook released on April 6 revised the Philippine growth outlook to 6.9% from the 6.6% it forecast in January, but said the higher estimate is mainly due to base effects from the record 9.6% contraction in 2020 which was the worst in Southeast Asia.

“A region (Asia Pacific) known for its trademark growth-with-equity model now runs the risk of entrenching excessive inequality. If policymakers do not act, they risk stunted opportunities, fragile growth, and even social unrest,” Mr. Ostry said.

Separately, Nomura Global Markets said in a report that the Philippines has spent the least on economic recovery measures, which could slow its rebound and hurt vulnerable groups.

Nomura Global analysts Euben Paracuelles and Rangga Cipta said the economy is only likely to return to its pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter next year, turning more pessimistic after a previous estimate that such output will be achieved by the second quarter of 2022. They expect the economy to grow by 5.4% this year from 6.4% previously forecast.

“The economy’s starting position remains fragile, with the pace of recovery still weak and the unemployment rate rising again, even before the lockdowns,” it said.

The analysts also expressed concern over the delays in sealing vaccine orders and the speed of inoculation.

“This suggests the country could continue to struggle to get the pandemic under control and leaves it vulnerable to bouts of recurring outbreaks throughout the year.”

“Regarding vaccine procurement, we think the government’s less proactive approach than some of its peers, such as Indonesia, suggests the country will likely fall further behind in acquiring more vaccines amid increasingly limited global supply and emerging constraints along supply chains and deliveries,” they said.

They also noted the small fiscal packages implemented by the Philippines, which they said were the smallest in the region in 2020 and 2021.

“Limited fiscal support, in our view, runs the risk of bigger scarring effects via more job losses and/or small-, medium-sized enterprises facing insolvency issues,” they added.

The report noted that the monthly subsidy for low-income households amounts to only P23 billion or 0.1% of gross domestic product, adding that this does not even involve new money as unused portions of previous stimulus packages were tapped. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

RE market operations for off-grid still frozen

THE DEPARTMENT of Energy (DoE) said Tuesday that commercial renewable energy (RE) market operations for off-grid areas remain suspended.

The renewable energy market allows for the trade of renewable energy certificates, which attest to the renewable and environmental attributes of power sourced from qualified RE firms. The Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) program requires distribution utilities to source an agreed portion of their supply from qualified renewable energy facilities. 

“Based on our advisory dated August last year, the compliance ‘Year One’ of the RPS off-grid rules is still suspended until further announcements,” Renewable Energy Management Bureau (REMB) Senior Science Research Specialist Jonathan B. Teodosio said during a webinar organized by the Center for Renewable Energy and Sustainable Technology.

The DoE suspended the first-year compliance period of RPS standards for off-grid areas until further notice pending resolution of various issues.

“Right now, we are establishing the necessary database that can serve as the basis for the decision of our RPSCT (RPS composite team) members (for) policy guidance in the future for the implementation of the RPS rules,” Mr. Teodosio said Tuesday.

The RPSCT consists of a chairperson and representatives from the REMB, the Electric Power Industry Management Bureau, National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) and the RE registrar. The team is in charge of implementing the RPS rules for both on-grid and off-grid participants.

According to a department advisory issued on Aug. 18, 2020, the RPS composite team proposes to “recalibrate” the commercial operations of the REM due to the impact of the pandemic. Participants in on-grid areas will need to submit documents showing compliance with the RPS by the end of December. Meanwhile, those in off-grid areas do not have to submit documents as yet because of the suspension of RPS compliance requirements.

The outstanding issues included: identifying the entries under the name “successors of interest”; determining the RPS requirements per participant using internationally-accepted software; and establishing the guidelines for setting the optimal supply mix in off-grid areas, among others.

“The DoE has the authority to suspend compliance of mandated participants when there is an occurrence or existence of force majeure affecting or preventing compliance with their respective RPS requirements,” it said.

On Tuesday, Mr. Teodosio said that the RPSCT currently has a vacancy for the NREB chair position. “Right now, it’s vacant, it was (occupied) before by former NREB Chair Monalisa C. Dimalanta,” he said during the webinar.

Asked if the DoE is looking for the next NREB chair, he said the appointment is up to Malacañang.

“Right now, the designated alternate NREB representative attends (the) meetings,” he said.

Last month, Ms. Dimalanta said that the DoE held a public consultation on the draft of the 2020-2040 National Renewable Energy Program, and concluded that the RPS level must be set to at least 2.52% by 2023 to guarantee the steady increase in RE share in the country’s power mix. — Angelica Y. Yang

MinDA angling for 20% share of budget for Mindanao

THE Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA) asked the government to allocate the southern islands at least 20% of the national budget next year to support agriculture and aquaculture projects which will improve livelihoods.

At a hearing conducted by the House Committee on Mindanao Affairs, MinDA Undersecretary Romeo M. Montenegro said the agency hopes for increased National Government investment in Mindanao, especially in agriculture.

“We hope that the 2022 budget, the last budget cycle of this administration, will at least deliver for Mindanao around 20% of the national budget allocation at the minimum,” he said.

He added that funding for Mindanao will “connect our production areas to the production centers and the market centers with the needed infrastructure for the last several years, Mindanao has been wanting.”

Mindanao has historically received little National Government investment, as has agriculture overall, he said.

Mr. Montenegro also said Mindanao has the largest share of unirrigated land but was given only 10% of the 2020 funding for the National Irrigation Administration.

MinDA said it is pursuing programs that will boost productivity in agriculture and aquaculture in partnership with various agencies and stakeholders to boost production in fisheries and aquaculture, hog raising, cattle ranching, poultry, corn, and vegetable cultivation.

MinDA Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol said at the hearing that the agency recently established the Mindanao Economic Recovery Facilitation Council.

He added next week, he will be meeting with regional officials of major national agencies “in addressing the concerns of our people and ensuring all of our programs and projects are synced towards a common objective of boosting Mindanao’s economic recovery.” — Gillian M. Cortez

The ghost of the 2012 Scarborough Shoal stand-off

A LANDSAT 7 image of Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. — WIKIPEDIA

Once again, the enigmatic and massive presence of Chinese fishing vessels that are believed to be manned by Chinese maritime militia are in the Philippine Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ), particularly in the Julian Felipe Reef (Whitsun Reef), in another swarming maneuver that is part of China’s aggressive expansionism in the West Philippine Sea. Belligerently banking on their debunked nine-line claim, China not only continues to negate and evade the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arbitral Ruling of 2016, but also deprives the littoral states of their maritime and sovereign rights.

On March 20, Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Delfin Lorenzana informed the Filipino nation that an estimated 220 Chinese fishing vessels were suspiciously moored in Julian Felipe Reef, a boomerang-shaped feature that emerges above the water only during low tides, that is located approximately 175 nautical miles west of Bataraza, Palawan.

The National Task Force for the West Philippines Sea warned of overfishing and destruction of the maritime environment. Closer observation revealed that the Chinese vessels were not engaged in fishing as they were closely lashed together in row formation and kept full white lights on during the night. Their claim to be “seeking shelter from storms” during the hot summer season raised more suspicions. Increased sovereignty patrols were immediately sent by the Defense Secretary as this incursion is within the Philippines 200 nautical mile EEZ.

The Philippine government’s animated reaction to this incident reflects its recognition of Chinese gray zone operation. It has taken note that China has incrementally asserted its expansive claim in the South China Sea by building artificial islands and fortifying them with missiles, ports, and airstrips in disputed waters also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. This was made possible because it has been swarming the South China Sea with both public and civilian vessels, effectively defying and overwhelming the littoral states’ efforts to drive them away. The objective is to accomplish by overwhelming presence what it had been unable to do through diplomacy or economic statecraft, or naked naval power. This is what transpired during the 2012 Scarborough Shoal stand-off against the Philippines.

DÉJÀ VU SCARBOROUGH SHOAL 2012
The stand-off began on April 10, 2012 when the Philippine Navy’s (PN) flagship, the BRP Gregorio Del Pilar, tried to arrest more than 10 Chinese fishing vessels that were spotted in Scarborough Shoal, which is only 220 kilometers from the main Philippine island of Luzon and well within the country’s EEZ. However, before the Gregorio Del Pilar could apprehend the fishing vessels, two Chinese marine surveillance vessels arrived and prevented the arrest of the Chinese fishermen. The two Chinese civilian ships then boldly informed the Filipino captain that his ship had strayed into Chinese territorial waters and was ordered to leave immediately. The following day, President Benigno Aquino recalled the navy ship and replaced it with a smaller Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) patrol craft in an effort to diffuse the tension. Instead of reciprocating Manila’s gesture, Beijing deployed its most advanced and latest fishery patrol ship to the shoal and this joined the two other civilian vessels confronting the PCG patrol craft.

At the onset of the stand-off, China had gained the upper hand when it forced the PN’s surface combatant to withdraw from the shoal. With an armada of armed civilian vessels at its disposal, China put the onus of either escalating or de-escalating the impasse squarely on the Philippines.

China then sent additional patrol ships, and consequently, three huge and imposing Chinese civilian vessels confronted a lone PCG patrol craft in the shoal. In early May, the Chinese foreign ministry ordered the Philippines to withdraw its lone PCG patrol craft from the shoal as China deployed another civilian vessel and additional fishing boats. To forcefully evict the Philippines from the shoal, China impounded 1,200 containers of tropical fruits from the Philippines in several Chinese ports and cancelled all Chinese group tours to the Philippines. To add more pressure on the Philippines, hawkish elements in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) floated the idea of using force against the Philippines.

In mid-June 2012, the tension at the shoal eased as the two countries withdrew their civilian vessels on the pretext of the onset of the typhoon season. However, after the Philippines withdrew its lone coast guard vessel from the shoal, Chinese Maritime Surveillance vessels, along with China Law Enforcement Command constructed a chain barrier across the mouth of the shoal to prevent Philippine access to it. This led to China’s exercise of de facto occupation of the shoal.

LESSONS FROM 2012
The 2012 Scarborough Shoal stand-off has taught the current administration that to avoid open conflict, China pursues its objective of maritime expansion entirely in the grey zone where it uses military and civilian intimidation and the non-violent but coercive use of maritime power.

As Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stated clearly and sternly, the presence of these alleged Chinese militia boats is a “clear provocative action of militarizing the area.” This military strategy of China disempowers the littoral states and physically bars them from exerting their maritime and territorial rights in the disputed waters.

The Duterte administration should have by now recognized the hard lesson in this ongoing Julian Felipe stand-off. These gray zone operations enabled China to contest and dominate competitive spaces and thereby achieve its coercive aim of maritime expansion without resorting to warlike violence against both its friends and competitors alike!

 

Dr. Renato De Castro is a Trustee and Convenor of the National Security and East Asian Affairs Program of the Stratbase ADR Institute.

OFWs: Smugglers of faith and joy

JCOMP-FREEPIK

(Second of three parts)

Economic prospects for 2021 look bleaker by the day as COVID-19 cases are rising and our Government can’t seem to get their act together in effectively distributing the vaccines available and managing more expertly the necessary balance between public health and the economy. In my own economic forecast, the Philippines shall continue to see paralyzing lockdowns as we suffer from additional surges of even more infectious varieties of this deadly virus. I do not expect positive GDP growth till the fourth quarter of the current year, coming mostly from the Government’s stimulus packages and the Build, Build, Build program. The only other major source of growth will be from the more than 10 million Overseas Filipinos who are literally our global front liners helping to carry the burden of the Philippine economy as our doctors, nurses, and health workers are the front liners caring for the health of the population. As I wrote in the first part of this series, we can expect as much as a 7% increase in the remittances sent by Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) to their relatives at home for the whole of 2021.

Why am I bullish about OFW remittances?

The first reason is the evidence from last year that our workers abroad thrive in adversity. Despite the fact that practically all of their major host countries in Europe and the Middle East suffered huge economic losses and a good number of them had to return to the Philippines because they were laid off, the remittances that came from them hardly fell. There was a slight decrease of 0.8% (compared to the catastrophic decline of GDP by 9.5, the worst in East Asia). The close to $30 billion that these OFWs sent to their relatives helped in preventing an even deeper decline in consumption expenditures that are the primary engine of growth of our economy. Thanks to these cash remittances, the low-cost and economic housing segments of the real estate sector continued to thrive (as contrasted with the more expensive housing units that have suffered a glut). The financial assistance that their families received from them also helped their children avoid the tragic fate of the 2.7 million students who had to stop schooling during the school year 2020-2021 because of the loss of income of the breadwinners of their respective families. The very high priority given by the families of the OFWs to education is helping to mitigate the ongoing educational crisis that will surely prejudice the future of the Philippines as many children and young people today are unable to have access to quality education or, for that matter, any education at all. A Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by the Central Bank research department in the last quarter of 2019 showed that 97% of the OFW households spent the remittances on essential items like food and other household needs while 64% put them in education and 44% to cover medical expenses.

It is estimated by the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration that since 2020, 489,451 OFWs have been repatriated as of March 25, 2021, of which 20% came back to the Philippines during the first quarter of this year. More updated information comes from the Department of Health which reported on March 25, 2021 that a total of 1,031,495 million Returning Overseas Filipinos (ROFs) have arrived in the country, among whom 651,628 were land-based; 371,764 sea-based; and transferees from Sabah,1,986. Of these, 1,024,170 were released from facility quarantine (land-based, 651,626; sea-based, 370,558; and Sabah, 1,986). Among these ROFs, 15,394 were confirmed COVID-19 patients. Of these, 9,675 were land-based and 5,719 were sea-based. Among the confirmed COVID-19 patients, 378 are currently admitted, 14,985 have already recovered and 10 have died. It is cause for celebration that a very small number of the ROFs have passed away from COVID-19. We have among them still a very large human resource pool from which we can have productive workers who can be redeployed either in the Philippines (especially in the construction industry or health sector) or once again, especially among the younger ones, as Overseas Filipino Workers. Once the economies of their former host countries rebound sometime this year, some of them can reapply for work, especially in the Middle East that is getting a big help for recovery from the much higher oil prices that are expected to rise above $70 per barrel. The downside for the Philippine economy of these higher oil prices is greater inflationary pressure on our domestic economy. It is already a certainty that average inflation for 2021 in the Philippines will be closer to 5%.

To have an idea of the post-pandemic prospects of OFWs, let us analyze the data provided by the Commission on Filipinos Overseas. In the latest report of this Commission, the 10.2 million Filipinos Overseas (not necessarily all are OFWs) are categorized as follows: 4.8 million are permanent migrants (already citizens or permanent residents in their host countries); 4.2 million are temporary migrants (especially in the Middle East and East Asian countries), and 1.2 million are irregular migrants. All of them are spread out in more than 200 countries and territories. Although a good number of them are already permanent citizens in their host countries, they can still be a major source of remittances to their relatives in the Philippines, especially among those in the United States.

During the height of the pandemic in 2020, a leading researcher on OFWs, Dr. Bett Esposo Ramirez from the University of Asia and the Pacific, monitored the conditions of OFWs in select countries. She reported her findings in a paper entitled “OFWs in their country of work amidst COVID-19 pandemic.” According to her, in Macau, pending legislation on the conversion from tourist to worker status can allow Filipinos stranded in that part of China to stay and supplement the scarce labor supply. In Taipei, Labor Attaché Cesar Chavez, Jr. reported that the factories where thousands of Filipinos work were still operational. Some of the OFWs chose to pre-terminate their contracts to receive their bonuses. Those who elected to stay in Taiwan received the benefits specified in their contracts. In Japan, the Philippine Overseas Labor Offices (POLO) Labor Attaché in Osaka, Elizabeth Estrada, reported that OFWs with a residence card are given JPY100,000 (Php 47,000) one-time assistance. For those who had worked in Japan for at least six months and had made insurance payments, Unemployment Insurance of up to 80% of their salary was provided. Aside from the financial assistance, the Japanese government also allowed a visa extension of three months so that the employees could continue working while waiting for the situation to normalize.

Countries in the Middle East, where some 40% of the OFWs work, also manifested some of the most friendly policies towards immigrant workers, reflecting their dire need for them. POLO Bahrain Labor Attaché Vicente Cabe announced that Bahrain had granted an amnesty for undocumented or “irregular” migrant workers who were allowed to legalize their stay and were issued visas to prolong their stay. In Oman, POLO Labor Attaché Greg Abalos reported that the country had started to shift to “Omanization” under which certain jobs held by expats would be given to Oman citizens. Instead of prejudicing OFWs, this measure would benefit them because there would be a greater demand for household service workers (HSWs) as Oman citizens leave their homes to join the workforce. POLO Riyadh Labor Attaché Nasser Mustafa said that the Ministry of Labor of Saudi Arabia issued a standing order against employee termination during the COVID-19 pandemic. OFWs received their salaries during the 14-day quarantine after which they received Paid Leave. Subsequently, they were under the No work, No pay scheme with food allowance and accommodations provided by their employers.

This information gathered by Dr. Ramirez on the practices of host countries may give some clues as to which countries, among others, will be most likely to welcome more Filipino immigrant workers after they have the pandemic under reasonable control. Our Northeast Asian neighbors, represented in the survey conducted by Dr. Ramirez by Japan and Macau, and the Middle Eastern countries represented by Saudi Arabia and Oman, are the ones who most appreciate the services of our workers. They should be on top of the list of Filipinos seeking post-pandemic employment opportunities abroad. The Northeast Asian countries are among those hardest hit by very low fertility rates (as low as 0.8 to 1.1 babies per fertile woman) and, therefore, suffer from severe labor shortages. On the revenue side, the Middle Eastern countries are the most benefited by the skyrocketing prices of oil that can enable them to resume a lot of infrastructure projects that will need many construction workers.

Meanwhile, as the last 12 months have demonstrated when more than 1 million Overseas Filipinos returned, those who remained abroad were still able to be a strong support of our domestic economy. As Dr. Ramirez ended her paper: “The labor situation overseas is not stable and options are few. There are a lot of sacrifices, fear, uncertainty and confusion among migrant workers. And yet, the many millions who have decided or are compelled to stay in their country of work continue to communicate and send remittances to their family and relatives in the Philippines who are also affected by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.” These words, written very early at the start of the pandemic in 2020, were quite prophetic. Indeed, the sacrifices and sufferings of our OFWs have paid off. Remittances from them hardly dropped in 2020 when the whole world was undergoing the worst depression in a hundred years. Even brighter news: in 2021, our OFWs are expected to send 7% more income to the Philippines as we are still struggling to free ourselves from the paralyzing grip of this deadly virus called COVID-19.

To be continued.

 

Bernardo M. Villegas has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, is Professor Emeritus at the University of Asia and the Pacific, and a Visiting Professor at the IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He was a member of the 1986 Constitutional Commission.

bernardo.villegas@uap.asia

Cold War II?

NO ONE disputes the reality of the strategic competition that has blossomed between China and the United States. But experts disagree on whether this contest will rise to the global reach and the comprehensive scope of the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union led opposing economic and political systems defended by their respective, globe-girdling security alliances. China is a regional Asian power with hardly any treaty allies. It is also the biggest beneficiary of the international, rules-based liberal order and the global market that has promoted its phenomenal economic growth.

With a swarm of Chinese naval vessels in the West Philippine Sea, the issue is of more than academic interest for the Philippines. Academic historian Niall Ferguson was among the earliest to announce around 2018 that Cold War II had already commenced. This was a striking conclusion from the co-author (with Moritz Schularik) of a 2007 article that had coined the term “Chimerica” to describe the mutually beneficial relationship between China and the United States. By pegging its currency to the US dollar and investing the massive profits generated in the global market in US securities, China was able to keep the value of the renminbi low and its products competitive. American business benefited from lower interest rates and consumers from lower prices for goods.* Chimerica suggested an enduring, warm, and cozy relationship unlikely to chill into a Cold War.

But the authors’ pun on chimera, the mythical monster with the head of a lion, the body of a goat and the tail of a serpent, already anticipated the authors’ conclusion two years later — Chimerica was an unsustainable illusion destined to end.** The US-China symbiosis was damaging to their trading competitors. More critically, it exposed the partners to risks that both would rather avoid. China has accumulated in its war chest about $4 trillion in reserves. While the amount makes US policy makers uneasy, it is also worrisome for the Chinese to have so much of its resources vulnerable to US actions.

It seems reasonable to accept Ferguson’s dating of Cold War II, when he reports both Washington, DC and Beijing officials telling him that they are already engaged in such a conflict. Biden’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, issued in March, has settled the issue. The document identified the comprehensive range of issues — diplomatic, military, economic, technology, information — over which the US resolved to compete. More significantly, it framed the competition in ideological terms, in the context of a “historic and fundamental debate about the future direction of our world.” As in Cold War I, the choice on “the best way forward,” was between autocracy or democracy.***

Xi Jinping had grasped the ideological foundation of the clash with the United States much earlier than Biden. Sinologists have gathered from Xi’s communications to the party faithful since his ascent to power in 2012-13 on the continued relevance and correctness of the Marxist Leninist view of history and the inevitable decline of Capitalism and the eventual triumph of Socialism it foretold. American mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic and the turbulent transition into the Biden presidency have further reinforced this narrative.

At Davos in late January, Xi Jinping was content to lobby European officials and businessmen to resist the American move to “decouple” Chimerica. While promoting business with China, he warned foreigners to respect the red lines protecting Chinese core interests in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

In March in Anchorage, Alaska, at the first top-level meeting between officials of the Biden Administration and the People’s Republic of China, Yang Jiechi, Director of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Foreign Secretary Wang Yi faced off with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. As the testy opening statements revealed, the participants had their gloves off. For Asian observers, the session recalled the Cold War I confrontations between the Soviet Union and the United States.****

The reset in US-PRC relations both sides might have thought possible would not come through a roll-back of Trump’s anti-China policies. Apart from Biden’s own democracy advocacy, the Democrats could not show themselves less ready than the Republicans to stand up to China. Nor would the People’s Republic of China (PRC), convinced that it was riding the tide of history, retreat from the sharp power/wolf warrior diplomacy it had been pursuing.

Beyond the atmospherics in Alaska, the PRC aimed to strengthen its “countermeasures and deterrent capabilities.” The PRC sought to establish its position as the dominant center of production of high-tech communications and artificial intelligence products, for the world. To enforce this policy, the PRC also had to reduce its dependence for strategic materials on ideologically unreliable trade partners, like Australia, the source of 60% of its iron ore. Hence, its move to Gambia in Africa for access to the world’s largest untapped iron ore reserves and to the Middle East to protect access to oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran, while also expanding its diplomatic footprint.

Cold War II will make it more difficult for countries to improvise on opportunistic or temporizing, transactional diplomacy that seeks free-riding advantages. This approach will not come without costs. Countries will need to be much more deliberate in crafting a foreign policy strategy that identifies and protects their permanent national interests. Nor can leaders postpone coming to grips with foreign policy challenges that are, admittedly, of a long-term nature, as appears to be the inclination of the Duterte administration.

Matt Pottinger, former White House national security adviser, described the competition with China as a marathon. But to qualify for the long-distance event, runners must qualify by keeping competitive in the 400-meter sprints. Or lose the marathon by default. n

* https://www.jfki.fu-berlin.de/faculty/economics/persons/schularick/chimerica.pdf 1apr21

**https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/10-037_0fdf7d5e-ce9e-45d8-9429-84f8047db65b.pdf

***https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf

****https://www.wsj.com/articles/matt-pottinger-on-china-and-u-s-business-11617224863

 

Edilberto C. De Jesus is a Senior Research Fellow at the Ateneo School of Government.

The exigency of punishing vax line jumpers

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
SENIOR CITIZENS receive their COVID-19 vaccines at the San Jose Parish Church in Navotas on March 31. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

The surge in the COVID-19 cases in the country comes with an increase in the morbidity and mortality rate. To curb the devastating effects of the virus, one concrete solution is to vaccinate the populace against the SARS CoV-2 virus. The limited supply of the vaccines, however, led the National Government to come up with a Deployment and Vaccination Plan for COVID-19 Vaccines, listing the priority population groups who can first benefit from the vaccine rollout.

In the Department of Health (DoH) Memorandum No. 2021-0099, or the Interim Omnibus Guidelines for the Implementation of the National Vaccine Deployment Plan for COVID-19 dated Feb. 23, the priority population groups are enumerated, as follows:

1. Frontline workers in health facilities both national and local, private and public, health professionals and non-professionals like students in health and allied professions courses with clinical responsibilities, nursing aides, janitors, barangay health workers, etc.

2. Senior citizens aged 60 years old and above

3. Adults with comorbidities not otherwise included in the preceding categories

4. Frontline personnel in essential sectors both in public and private sectors, including uniformed personnel, and those in working sectors identified by the IATF that are directly client facing and cannot dutifully meet minimum public health standards

5. Poor population based on the National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTS-PR) not otherwise included in the preceding categories

Despite the straightforward list, recent reports reveal that there are non-priority individuals who are getting inoculated. And they seem to get away with it. Once again, societal inequality and privilege is underscored even during this time of pandemic.

The mayors who have been recently inoculated offered the excuse that they did it to boost vaccine confidence among their constituents. President Rodrigo Roa Duterte himself said in a televised address to the nation on March 24 that the mayors’ excuse is a “gray area” that “would require a certain amount of legal study. This, despite the clear statement of Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque on March 4 that the vaccination of officials ahead of the health workers are “breaches.”

Even civilians, like actor Mark Anthony Fernandez, received the shot earlier than priority health workers. Reports have also been received of police officers jumping the queue.

Aside from denying the healthcare workers the priority of being vaccinated, vax line jumpers also endanger the country. President Duterte said that the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that if these non-priority officials continue to jump the line, the country might lose access to the vaccine donations from the COVAX Facility.

Given the impact of skipping the vax line, violators should not be allowed to go unpunished. But to date, no one has actually been penalized for violating the government’s priority list. These reported cases are still being referred to the Department of Interior and Local Government for investigation and with no correlative action just yet. President Duterte himself also said that they may face charges.

Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra remarked that there is a “possible administrative liability if they are government officials who are not in the priority list,” while Interior and Local Government Undersecretary Epimaco Densing earlier said that public officials may be suspended for this. He, however, also said that as of this time, he does not see any potential liability on the part of civilians who jump the line. The liability, he said, may be upon those who let them skip the line.

It is basic tenet in criminal law that there is no crime when there is no law punishing it. Even Mr. Roque said that there is a need to pass a national quarantine law to provide sanctions for those who do not abide by the vaccination deployment plan.

As of late, Deputy Majority Leader and Quezon City Rep. Precious Hipolito Castelo proposed that vaccine line jumping and mishandling should be criminalized, stressing that she would file a bill to this effect. Said bill, she said, would amend Republic Act 11525, or the COVID-19 Vaccination Program Act of 2021, which only penalizes the falsification of a vaccine card.

Clearly, there is an exigency to pass a law to curtail the deplorable act of skipping the vaccine line, cutting in front of frontline workers, despite not being included in the government’s priority list. The government should be as serious in punishing these violators as it is in ensuring that those in the priority list will be vaccinated first. Who knows, there may be more violators than what meets the eye of the media.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not offered as and does not constitute legal advice or legal opinion.

 

Gerime Mae A. Basalo is an Associate of the Cebu Branch of the Angara Abello Concepcion Regala & Cruz Law Offices (ACCRALAW).

gabasalo@accralaw.com

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