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Local shares dip on weaker peso, gov’t debt

BW FILE PHOTO

Shares slipped on Friday after the peso depreciated and the government’s report of a record-high P12-trillion national debt.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 46.08 points or 0.62% to close at 7,342.01, while the broader all shares declined by 22.90 points or 0.58% to close at 3,895.52.

“The PSEi [was] lower today after the peso exchange rate weakened versus the US dollar to the weakest in more than two years or since October 9, 2019,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a text message.

On Friday, the Philippine peso closed at P51.74, weaker than Thursday’s P51.50 per dollar.

“The PSEi [was] also lower today after outstanding national government debt posted new record highs, but offset by lower-than-expected inflation data,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The Bureau of the Treasury reported that the National Government’s total outstanding debt stood at P12.03 trillion as of end-January. For January, total debt increased by 2.6% to P301.12 billion due to domestic and external debt.

“Philippine inflation came out this morning better than expected for February at 3.0% and was able to tame some of the selling,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

On Friday, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported that headline inflation stayed at 3% in February, recording the same annual growth rate as in January. Inflation in February 2021 was posted at 4.2%.

“Higher prices of major global commodities as Russia’s war with Ukraine continues despite the second round of talks and upcoming third round of talks, thereby could aggravate the disruptions in the global supply chains and could lead to higher inflation, slow down economic recovery prospects, narrow profit margins, and valuations, amid increased sanctions on Russia that could reduce global trade, transactions, and payments,” Mr. Ricafort said.

Mr. Limlingan said investors would continue to monitor the Russia-Ukraine crisis, despite declining volatility in energy and bond markets.

Majority of sectoral indices ended in the red on Friday, except for mining and oil, which gained by 53.63 points or 0.40% to 13,327.07, and property, which rose by 3.91 points or 0.11% to 3,498.54.

Meanwhile, holding firms slid by 89.68 points or 1.25% to 7,060.32, industrials went down by 104.97 points or 1.03% to 10,076.44, services contracted by 9.76 points or 0.49% to 1,958.73, and financials retreated by 2.97 points or 0.17% to 1,688.71.

Value turnover decreased to P5.22 billion or 1.33 billion shares changing hands from P8.26 billion or 1.82 billion shares on Thursday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 102 versus 89, while 44 names closed unchanged.

Foreigners turned net sellers on Friday with P164.23 million from P489.15 million in net buying seen the previous trading day.

Mr. Ricafort placed major support at 7,100 to 7,200 to “help preserve the underlying upward trend over the past two to three months.” — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Quad leaders agree Ukraine experience should not be allowed in Indo-Pacific

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter launches during flight operations aboard the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea, July 17, 2020. — US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS CODIE L. SOULE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS.

TOKYO/WASHINGTON — Leaders of the Quad grouping of countries — the United States, India, Australia, and Japan — agreed on Thursday that what is happening to Ukraine should not be allowed to happen in the Indo-Pacific, the prime ministers of Japan and Australia said.

A virtual meeting of the four-country grouping was held at a time of increased concern about Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China that has stepped up its alert level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wary of Beijing taking advantage of a distracted West to move against it.

“We’ve agreed that unilateral changes to the status quo with force like this should not be allowed in the Indo-Pacific region,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, referring to Russia’s invasion.

“We’ve also agreed this development makes it even more important to work toward realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Mr. Kishida told reporters after the meeting with US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“We cannot allow what is happening in Ukraine now to ever happen in the Indo-Pacific,” Mr. Morrison said in a statement after the meeting.

“We are resolute in our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region where smaller states do not need to live in fear of more powerful ones,” he added.

A joint Quad statement said the leaders met to “reaffirm their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states is respected and countries are free from military, economic, and political coercion.”

The leaders, whose call followed a meeting of their foreign ministers in Australia last month, also “reaffirmed their dedication to the Quad as a mechanism to promote regional stability and prosperity.”

The statement, which added that the leaders agreed to meet in person in Tokyo “in the coming months,” made no specific mention of Taiwan, but said the leaders discussed the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

“They agreed to stand up a new humanitarian assistance and disaster relief mechanism which will enable the Quad to meet future humanitarian challenges in the Indo-Pacific and provide a channel for communication as they each address and respond to the crisis in Ukraine,” it said.

Mr. Biden tweeted that the meeting with the Quad leaders covered “our commitment to sovereignty and territorial integrity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific.”

Taiwan’s representative office in Washington said it welcomed the Quad’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. “Taiwan will continue to work with all peace-loving partners in the region for prosperity and stability,” it said.

Mr. Modi “underlined that the Quad must remain focused on its core objective of promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region,” his office said.

It said developments in Ukraine were discussed, including its humanitarian implications, and Mr. Modi “emphasized the need to return to a path of dialogue and diplomacy.”

Washington sees the Quad and its growing relations with India as essential to its efforts to push back against China, but it is in a delicate balancing act with New Delhi, given the latter’s long-standing ties with Russia.

Of the Quad countries, only India has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the main supplier of arms to the Indian military, and India faces the possibility of US sanctions for its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system.

Analysts say any moves by US Russia hawks to impose sanctions on India for working with Moscow could set back Quad cooperation.

Donald Lu, US assistant secretary of state for South Asia, told a Senate subcommittee hearing on Wednesday that Washington had been fighting a “pitched battle” with India in diplomatic channels to urge it to take a clear position opposed to Russian actions in Ukraine.

He also said it was looking “very closely” at whether to apply sanctions on India over its Russian arms deals. — Kiyoshi Takenaka, David Brunnstrom, and Michael Martina/Reuters

Want lower oil prices? First you need higher ones

MODELS of oil barrels and a pump jack are displayed in this illustration photo taken on Feb. 24, 2022. — REUTERS

NEW YORK — There is only one way oil prices are going to fall — by first rising even more. That is the growing consensus among Wall Street analysts, who say there is not enough supply to impede crude prices from their relentless surge.

Global benchmark Brent and US crude futures have soared over 15% to around 10- and 14-year highs, respectively, since Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine last week. The benchmarks closed on Thursday at $110.46 a barrel and $107.67, respectfully.

Though global powers have unleashed a slew of sanctions that have so far stopped short of targeting Russian oil and gas exports, companies are avoiding Russian oil — tightening a market that was already struggling to keep up with demand that has roughly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.

In recent days, Wall Street strategists have been boosting their expectations for the peaks crude benchmarks will have to scale to eventually cause businesses and consumers to curtail consumption.

On Thursday, JP Morgan analysts said Brent would have to rise to $120 a barrel “and stay there for months to incentivize demand destruction.”

What is more, the bank says if disruption to Russian volumes lasts throughout the year, Brent could end 2022 at $185 a barrel, likely causing demand to fall by about 3 million barrels per day (bpd).

“At these price levels, it affects demand, but that takes time and we went into this already with a tight oil market — there’s not a lot of slack in the system,” said Daniel Yergin, author and vice chairman of S&P Global.

Global consuming nations have tried to ensure adequate oil supply following the sanctions on Russia, which exports 4 million to 5 million bpd of crude, second-most worldwide behind Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said it would release 60 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves.

The market shrugged off that news as the release amounts to less than a day’s global consumption, and oil prices continued their upward march after the announcement.

“Supply elasticity is no longer relevant in the face of such a potential large and immediate supply shock,” said Goldman Sachs in a note Tuesday.

So far, there has been little evidence of demand destruction in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Motorists tend to become wary about filling up their cars when gasoline reaches $4 per gallon. The current national average is $3.73 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

“I do think when we see $4 a gallon, there may be an adverse reaction,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “But with a strong economy and prices that remain well below inflation-adjusted records, it doesn’t have the same sting.”

RBC’s senior analyst Mike Tran said that when adjusting for inflation, the $4-per-gallon price reached in 2008 would be equal to about $5.20 in today’s dollars.

“The next frontier of oil prices will be defined by prices in search of demand destruction, and that is as bullish a framework gets,” Mr. Tran said in a Wednesday note. — Stephanie Kelly/Reuters 

#Couplegoal: Staying blessed to be a blessing to others

For Insular Life (InLife) financial advisors and married couple Mark and Mica Fernandez, being blessed is a strong motivation to be a blessing to others.

Mark and Mica were working as accountants before they became InLife financial advisors in 2009 and 2012, respectively.

During the recent InLife Winners Circle Business Opportunity Forum entitled “Achieving Financial Harmony,” Mark recalled that he was attracted by the flashy stock picker shown on Insular Life Building along Ayala Avenue in Makati City. His curiosity to learn about investing in the stock market motivated him to submit his resume in InLife and eventually work as a part-time financial advisor.

After realizing that his calling in life was to give advice to people on how to become financially independent, Mark left the accounting firm after six months to work full-time as a financial advisor – an unfamiliar profession to many which he admitted was then frowned upon by his father who lives in Dumaguete City in Negros. Determined to make his father proud, Mark worked hard until he became one of InLife’s top performing financial advisors. He became part of the prestigious Million Dollar Round Table, an association of the top 5% of financial advisors all over the world at age 23.

Mica, on the other hand, worked in an accounting firm for three years. Intrigued with her friends who seemed so happy about the income and gratifications they were getting from their side hustle, she was introduced to the world of InLife financial advisors. She was contented with being a part-time advisor at first, until her family in Batangas was faced with a difficult financial situation. They needed a huge amount of money to pay for their mortgaged house, otherwise they might lose it.

“The challenge was to pay a P1 million loan with my P30,000 monthly salary. Even if I pay P10,000 monthly, P7,000 would go to interest and only P3,000 for the principal amount. This would take me 20 to 28 years to pay the loan. So, I decided to go full-time as a financial advisor. And because of that big decision, I was able to settle my parent’s loan in two years,” Mica shared.

In 2018, they started Aetos FPH Financial Insurance Agency Inc. with Mica as President and Mark as Chairman. Starting with only 15 financial advisors, the agency has now grown to 57 financial advisors, particularly from Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Iloilo, Cebu, Aklan, and Cagayan.

Mark explained that his profession as a financial advisor allowed him to learn more about investments and insurance which have allowed his family to be financially independent. The profession also allowed him to be a hands-on parent to their daughter due to the work from home nature of the job while still earning a generous income, international travel incentives, industry recognitions, as well as opportunities for career growth by helping aspiring young financial advisors become top financial advisors.

“We help our policyholders reach their financial goals. We also help our financial advisors through mentoring and training,” Mica said.

“The experience and struggles as a financial advisor were definitely worth it,” Mark said, adding that his family in Dumaguete is now his biggest fan.

The couple shared their four tried and tested ways to reach their financial goals:

  1. Build a surplus mindset to enable you to afford things and achieve your dreams, rather than settle for a shortage mindset.
  2. Invest in yourself. Study and attend training programs.
  3. Be determined to achieve your goals.
  4. Start building multiple streams of income.

Mark added that the country needs more financial advisors to spread the benefits of financial planning to more Filipinos. The couple noted that if more people are financially literate, there will be lesser poverty in the country.

InLife, the country’s largest Filipino life insurance company, hopes to multiply Mark and Mica’s winning journey as financial advisors. To become financial advisors, simply attend InLife’s monthly Winners Circle Business Opportunity Forum; take the licensure exam and get licensed; and complete the basic training program. Visit https://tinyurl.com/4vap2y2y for more details.

 


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US Treasury warns crypto firms on Russia cybersecurity threat — source

PIXABAY

The US Treasury Department has reached out to cryptocurrency companies about their cybersecurity controls amid concerns that Russia could wage retaliatory cyber attacks in response to Western sanctions, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The United States and its allies have unleashed a slew of sanctions targeting Russia’s banks, state-owned entities, and elites, among others, following the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Governments have warned for weeks that Russia or its allies could carry out cyber attacks in retribution for sanctions, leading banks to increase monitoring, scenario-planning and line up extra staff in case hostile activity surges.

In a sign US regulators see the ballooning cryptocurrency industry as a growing source of systemic risk, US Treasury officials have also been in discussions with cryptocurrency exchanges and trade groups to ensure US digital assets are safe, said the person familiar with the matter.

Officials are also sharing indicators that IT systems have been compromised, such as a network infiltration or a data breach, with crypto and other financial firms, the person said.

The value of all cryptocurrencies surged past $3 trillion last year, with approximately 13% to 14% of Americans invested in digital assets as of 2021, according to research by the University of Chicago.

As the digital asset has become more popular, crypto hacks have grown. Last year, for example, an anonymous hacker stole roughly $600 million in cryptocurrencies from Poly Network, a decentralized finance network, before giving it back. Hackers also stole at least $150 million from crypto exchange BitMart.

Regulators have warned that crypto routs or runs on crypto currencies could pose a risk to the broader financial system.

Some US lawmakers have expressed concern that digital assets could be used to evade Western sanctions, although Biden administration officials have played down that risk. — Hannah Lang/Reuters

S. Korea candidates woo young voters with ‘deepfakes,’ hair insurance

YOUTUBE.COM

SEOUL — South Korean presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol got a boost on Thursday when a rival dropped out, but if the conservative former prosecutor wins next week, it may also be thanks to “deepfake” avatars and viral short videos.

Opposition leader Mr. Yoon and the top liberal contender have gone to unusual lengths in the nation’s tradition-bound politics to shed the image of grumpy old men, courting young voters who could prove decisive in what has been a close race.

The candidates are vying to replace liberal President Moon Jae-in, who came to power five years ago with help from voters in their 20s and 30s. They have since deserted his party in droves.

Mr. Yoon, 61, who has been narrowly ahead of Lee Jae-myung, 57, from Mr. Moon’s governing party, won the backing on Thursday of a fellow conservative running a distant third, who joined with Mr. Yoon in a combined ticket. Mr. Moon is barred by terms limits from seeking reelection.

A former top prosecutor, Mr. Yoon has enjoyed steadfast support from people over 60, while Mr. Lee leads with those in their 40s and 50s, leaving a battleground for younger voters. Their support has swung dramatically toward some conservative challengers, but disapproval ratings are high for both top contenders amid scandal and mud-slinging.

Messrs. Yoon and Lee both established campaign task forces aimed at capturing or winning back young voters.

A digital avatar of Mr. Yoon, his campaign says, is the world’s first “deepfake candidate,” explaining policy ideas and taking digs at his rival. Lee’s team responded with its own AI-powered character.

Mr. Yoon’s slogan “OK, Let’s go!” — shouted at rallies with his signature uppercut gesture — has gone viral on social media, creating endless memes and video spoofs.

NO MORE GGONDAE 

Kim Dong-wook, a 30-year-old adviser on Mr. Yoon’s social media campaign, is trying to shake the candidate’s image as ggondae — a bossy old person stubbornly insisting on his opinion.

“I’ve found him to be more open to change,” said Mr. Kim, a former think tank researcher. “He was portrayed as passive and at times lacking confidence in the media, so I wanted to help change that and add young voices to his policies.”

Mr. Yoon’s youth team, selected by public audition, comprises people aged 23 to 38, including a start-up founder, a former professional gamer, a psychiatrist and a home shopping executive.

The team got off to a rocky start with clashes and resignations. When Mr. Yoon finally met with the team, Mr. Kim says he pointed out the candidate’s ggondae image while others urged him to listen more to young voters and sack “political parasites.”

“His face turned darker” after the criticism, Mr. Kim said, but “there was no censorship and he listened carefully and took notes. And in the end he accepted most of our suggestions.”

The team created 29 YouTube short videos on Mr. Yoon’s and the party’s pages, discussing policy ideas and generating more than 14.5 million views, in a country of 52 million people.

The strategy has helped lift Mr. Yoon’s popularity with 20-somethings above 40% from around 30% in early January, according to Realmeter.

“There was a lesson that brief yet strong messages could have a massive impact, especially on young generations and people who are apathetic about politics,” said Park Min-young, a Yoon adviser who has written about generational political shifts.

A FIGHT FOR HAIR 

Liberal contender Mr. Lee, after meeting with young men and mothers, proposed allowing public healthcare insurance to cover hair loss treatment.

In an appearance-obsessed country where plastic surgery is common, many young men believe baldness can harm career and marriage prospects, but uninsured treatments are expensive.

A 15-second video clip in which Mr. Lee did a spoof of a hair-loss commercial sparked explosive reaction on social media as well as complaints from some experts and rival candidates that he was pushing a populist agenda.

He courted younger voters in January by calling for legalizing the estimated $1 billion tattoo industry, which operates underground because South Korean law allows only doctors to perform the procedure.

Mr. Lee is especially targeting young people who joined candlelight vigils leading up to the 2017 impeachment and ouster of conservative then-president Park Geun-hye.

Lee Jung-in, 19, a candlelight protester who now heads a group of some 30 youth campaigners for candidate Lee, steered a successful movement to lower South Korea’s voting age by a year to 18 in 2019.

“It is extremely rare that teenagers would have a chance to speak at rallies during any presidential elections, and political parties are generally not good at embracing young people,” said Lee, who is not related to the candidate.

“We’re aiming to persuade other young voters to join us, which I believe would bring a big change in further democratizing the country’s politics.” — Hyonhee Shin and Hyun Young Yi/Reuters 

Sanctions response to Russia’s invasion offers clues for China

REUTERS

BEIJING — Under President Xi Jinping, China has pushed for self-reliance in key areas of technology and the payments needed to settle trade to minimize its vulnerability to economic pressure over flashpoints, from trade policy to Taiwan.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the tough global response, including curtailment of access to the SWIFT payments system and a freezing of Russian assets, provide a case study for China on the economic and financial vulnerabilities analysts expect it will continue to address.

The unexpectedly heavy sanctions, led by the West, have exposed vulnerabilities for Russia, including dependence on the US dollar, that China would want to mitigate before becoming the target of any such measures.

While the China-US trade war during the Trump administration forced China to seek greater self-sufficiency, the sanctions on Russia are a louder wake-up call, said Abraham Zhang, chairman of Shenzhen-based China Europe Capital.

“Just as China needs food security, China also needs oil reserves, and a complete industrial system, so that if China is one day cut off from external supplies as Russia is now, China can still be self-sufficient, maintain internal circulation, and survive,” Mr. Zhang said.

China has in recent years ramped-up efforts to develop home-grown technologies, from semiconductors to advanced materials to aircraft, to ease reliance on imports. Huawei Technologies, crippled by sanctions preventing its access to high-end chips, is a cautionary example.

“China needs to accelerate the development of key technologies. Otherwise, it would be too late once you’re suffocated by sanctions, if Russia offers any lessons,” he said.

To be sure, China has a much bigger and more diversified economy than Russia’s, although it depends on imported energy and food, and relies heavily on global commerce as the world’s largest trading economy.

Also, Ukraine is not Taiwan, which Beijing has vowed to bring under its control, by force if necessary.

The political and geostrategic circumstances are vastly different, including the likely response to a Chinese attack on the democratically controlled island, which among other factors is a linchpin in the global technology supply chain.

Where the United States has ruled out intervening militarily in Ukraine, its policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan and its strengthening defense ties with the island, including stepped up arms sales and the development of the AUKUS grouping with Australia and Britain, convey a warning.

China, which has declined to condemn Russia’s attack or call it an invasion, has blamed the Ukraine conflict on NATO expansion.

Taiwan has reported no unusual Chinese military movements since the Ukraine war began and US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., this week dispatched a team of former senior officials to visit the island in a show of support.

CURRENCIES, PAYMENTS 

China has in recent years sought to internationalize its currency by settling more trade with the yuan, including with Russia. The yuan accounted for 13.1% of the Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserves last June, compared with just 0.1% in June 2017

China’s central bank is developing a digital currency, which would have the benefit of further encouraging yuan settlement for trade, but the project, while ahead of efforts elsewhere, is still in its early days.

China has an alternative system to bypass SWIFT, the Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which saw a 75% increase in processing volume last year, although 80% of CIPS transactions still involve SWIFT.

Bert Hofman, director of the East Asian Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of the National University Singapore, said China has been concerned about dollar dominance of international payments since the global financial crisis.

“The sanctions may therefore lead China to accelerate the development of alternative options, including the China-led CIPS system, and the further internationalization of the (yuan).”

WORRY ABOUT ISOLATION 

While the unity and strength of the diplomatic response to the invasion, which many experts believe Russia underestimated, may be instructive to China, the unexpectedly sluggish early performance of Russia’s forces in Ukraine is less applicable, with the United States not engaged there militarily.

US intervention would be China’s biggest worry in the event that it attacked Taiwan, said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

“The international isolation of Russia, and the broad coalition … make China worry about the potential international isolation of China in a similar event on Taiwan,” she said.

Still, she said, China would take comfort that countries that have joined in sanctions against Russia remain in the minority, and the fact that China has yet to face secondary sanctions for its Russia ties.

Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said Beijing was unlikely to be happy with the way things are going in Ukraine but the ultimate effectiveness of the international response would determine its outlook.

If Russia was not brought to its knees, “China will be relatively relaxed about what the West could do when China is finally ready to take Taiwan,” he said.

“If the responses should prove effective against Russia, Xi will be a lot more cautious about when and how he will try to bring Taiwan into the fold,” he said. — Tony Munroe/Reuters 

February inflation steadies as food prices ease

The overall year-on-year increase in prices of widely used goods steadied in February as food costs eased, the government reported this morning.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed headline inflation at 3% last month, steadied from 3% in January 2021 though slowed down from 4.2% in February 2021.

Month on month, inflation picked up by 0.1% in February.

The latest headline figure is lower than the 3.3% median in a BusinessWorld poll conducted late last week, below the 3.2% midpoint forecast for February but falls within the 2.8%-3.6% estimate given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Year to date, inflation settled at 3%, still fell within the BSP’s 2-4% target for the year.

February core inflation print is still not available.

Heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages slowed to 1.2% year on year in February from 1.7% in January and the 6.2% print recorded in February last year. It accounted for 37.75% of the theoretical basket of goods and services that an average Filipino household buys under the 2018 prices.

Meanwhile, inflation for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased to 4.8% that month from 4.5% in January; transport (to 8.8% from 7%); and recreation, sport, and culture (to 1.6% from 1.5%).

The food alone index decelerated to 1.1% in February from 1.6% the previous month and 6.8% print a year ago.

Meanwhile, the February inflation rate for the bottom 30% of households slowed down to 2.7% from 3.2% in January and 5.5% in February 2021. Year to date, bottom 30% inflation settled at 2.9%. — Lourdes O. Pilar

Inspiring partnerships to create a greener world 

In photo during the BusinessWorld Insights (clockwise, from top left) are moderator Victor V. Saulon of BusinessWorld, with panelists Ferdinand A. Pecson, Public-Private Partnership Center of the Philippines undersecretary and executive director; Erwin O. Avante, Energy Development Corp. senior vice-president and chief financial officer; and Jean-Marc Arbogast, International Finance Corp. Philippines country manager.

By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran, Special Features Writer

The climate crisis has been dubbed as “the greatest threat to global health and security” of our time. And it will take a monumental collaborative effort between individuals, enterprises, governments, and corporations all over the world to address it.

Green finance could be key to accomplishing this feat. The World Economic Forum defines it essentially as any structured financial activity — a product or service — that’s been created to ensure a better environmental outcome. These consist of loans, debt mechanisms and investments that are used to encourage the development of green projects, minimize the impact on the climate of more regular projects, or do a combination of both.

The second leg of BusinessWorld Insights’ two-part series on “Green Finance for a More Sustainable Future,” with the topic “Public-Private Collaboration to Pivot into a Greener World,” gathered experts to discuss how public and private partnerships facilitated through green finance could lead the way to a more sustainable world.

Ferdinand A. Pecson, undersecretary and executive director of the Public-Private Partnership Center of the Philippines, began the discussion pointing out the need for the government to take a holistic approach to enacting new policies to meet the country’s sustainability goals.

“What we need on the government side is a whole-of-government approach; involving policy makers who set the rules for greenness and sustainability; project implementers who develop projects according to those rules; and oversight bodies and regulators who ensure that the private partners in a public-private partnership follow those rules,” he said.

Mr. Pecson said that much remains to be done to facilitate green and sustainable infrastructure in the Philippines. He pointed out the area of solid waste management and the potential of the country to convert waste pollution into renewable energy as an example.

Currently, the potential of the Philippines to develop waste-to-energy technology is hampered by several issues, among which is the uncertainty surrounding the resulting fuel product and whether it classifies as renewable energy and thus would benefit from government-issued incentives.

“Without this being put into law, as part of a legal framework, it will not be easy to encourage investors to put money in projects like this. My understanding is that investors are waiting for more clarity,” he said.

“Some of those rules are still being developed. There are deals as we speak that are in place, but they still have a long way to go before they become laws. But it is quite an exciting time in so far as laying the groundwork for green and sustainable infrastructure. Much still needs to be done, and this will require the efforts of multiple bodies working together,” Mr. Pecson added.

Jean-Marc Arbogast, country manager of the International Finance Corporation Philippines, agreed, saying that the country has been “faring quite well” in terms of creating regulatory and policy work to support green infrastructures.

“I think it’s been faring quite well, but there is still more to do especially on the adaptation side. A lot of infrastructure needs to be built in the coming decades, and it is an opportunity for building it greener and making sure it is sustainable,” he said.

Mr. Arbogast particularly noted the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ Sustainable Finance Framework and the Securities and Exchange Commissions’ Sustainability Reporting Guidelines for Publicly-Listed Companies as good initiatives to support the country’s sustainability effort.

However, he underscored the importance of bringing climate-centered finance into the mainstream through products like green bonds, as well as specific policies and regulations supporting public-private partnerships to quicken investment into these areas.

The private sector, he noted, is typically more innovative, efficient and cost-effective than the public sector, making it uniquely positioned to accelerate green investments at scale.

“We all know the green transition will be costly. It’ll be very expensive. Getting to net zero (greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050 will cost an extra $3.5 trillion a year, according to a new study by McKinsey, and surely for the Philippines that means an extra 10s of billions of dollars every year,” Mr. Arbogast said.

“And that’s a large chunk of the country’s GDP. Can the public sector do this alone? No, not in a post-COVID environment. The cost is too high for the government to bear it alone, and therefore the private sector has a real role to play.”

Enabling public-private collaboration

Echoing the sentiment, Erwin O. Avante, senior vice-president and chief financial officer of the Energy Development Corporation (EDC), cited the government’s Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP) as an example of a system that can drum up support from the private sector.

The GEAP is a market development support program which aims to provide additional options for renewable energy (RE) developers and generators, and promote a competitive setting of rates for RE supply in the country.

Mr. Avante noted that EDC, the Philippines’ leading renewable energy producer and the world’s largest integrated geothermal producer, is very interested in participating in the program and urged the government to create similar initiatives such as the GEAP to address other climate issues.

“The Green Energy Program allows consumers with electricity consumption of 100 kilowatts and above to source their power directly from renewable energy sources. In terms of market, it’s quite big. In Metro Manila alone we have about 6,000 megawatts of customers that are able to shift to the Green Energy Program. It is quite substantial. I think sooner or later we want this to go down to the retail level, 10 kilowatts for example, so that retail consumers will be able to participate in the program,” he said.

Around half of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the energy sector, Mr. Avante said, highlighting the need for expediting a transition into an efficient, low-carbon or even zero-carbon system.

“It will take a herculean effort to avert the climate crisis in the future and ease our transition to a greener world. But I believe the energy sector, which I’m a part of, plays an important role. But with the right policies, enforcements, and incentives from the government, support of local and foreign financial institutions for sustainability financing, and the technical expertise and investment by the private sector, I think we can all collaboratively make into reality a decarbonized and regenerative future,” he said.

 


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Duterte seeks to revive nuclear power

REUTERS
The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) is seen in Morong town, Bataan province, Philippines, Sept. 16, 2016. — REUTERS/ROMEO RANOCO

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

PHILIPPINE President Rodrigo R. Duterte has signed an executive order allowing the country to tap nuclear power as an alternative energy source, more than a year after an interagency body submitted its recommendation.   

“The National Government commits to the introduction of nuclear power energy into the state’s energy mix,” Mr. Duterte said in Executive Order (EO) No. 164.

The order was signed on Feb. 28, three months before Mr. Duterte steps down from office.

The President said he looked into the economic, political, social and environmental aspects in reviving the country’s nuclear power program.

“For the country to achieve its sustained growth targets, it must ensure that it has a reliable, secure, sustainable, quality and affordable electricity supply, including sufficient reserve to guarantee that there will be no disruptions in power supply,” he said. 

Mr. Duterte said nuclear power should be tapped as a “viable baseload power source” alongside renewable energy, in order to address the projected decline of coal-fired power plants.

In 2020, the Philippines’ power mix consisted of 57% coal, 21% renewable energy, 19% natural gas, and 2% oil-based.

The EO also directed the Department of Energy to conduct a pre-feasibility study on the viability of introducing nuclear power.

The Nuclear Energy Program Inter-Agency Committee (NEP-IAC) was also tasked to make recommendations on the use and viability of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) and the establishment of other facilities for the utilization of nuclear energy.

The $2.2-billion BNPP was completed in 1984 but mothballed in 1986 after the ouster of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. His son, Ferdinand Jr., is currently running for president.

Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi has endorsed the use of nuclear power, claiming it is safe and will help the Philippines achieve energy security.

“Nuclear power is cheaper and more consistent than other energy sources,” Caloy A. Arcilla, director of the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Nuclear Research Institute, said in a Viber message.

LEGISLATION NEEDED
Energy Undersecretary Gerardo D. Erguiza, Jr. said the government needs to come up with a regulatory framework for the nuclear energy program, which will require legislation.

It will also be up to the next administration if it will support the nuclear energy program, Mr. Erguiza added.

“2027 is the earliest possible [time when we can build a traditional] nuclear power plant,” he said during a virtual press conference on Wednesday.

He said that those nuclear power plants with small modular reactors, which are being eyed in off-grid areas, can be built as soon as the regulatory framework is already in place.

Sixteen areas are being considered as possible locations for nuclear power plants, 13 of which have been on the list since 1980s.

These areas are located in Bataan, Batangas, Cagayan, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Quezon, General Santos City, and Sulu.

“These areas are considered because they are isolated, the availability of the cooling system, basically based on the general standards, but again, there is a process,” Mr. Erguiza said.

SAFETY CONCERNS
Civic groups have been opposing the possible use of nuclear energy in the country, citing environmental and safety concerns.

Antonio Gabriel M. La Viña, a climate justice advocate, said the government has yet to convince the public that safety issues about nuclear plants “can be properly addressed.”

“I think Bataan is a nonstarter because of its location and the sheer density of people in Central Luzon,” he said in a Telegram message.

In a statement, environmental group Greenpeace urged the government to revoke the order, saying it is a “blatant disregard” of the public’s call for a concrete, sustainable, and safe solution to the energy crisis through renewable energy.

“Nuclear is the most dangerous and most expensive source of electricity and is the last thing the Filipino people need at a time when we are already deep in debt and trying to recover from a major health crisis,” it said.

Greenpeace said the next administration should ensure that its first order of business is to scrap the order. “The next administration will already inherit a huge debt burden and the pursuit of nuclear will make this even heavier due to steep capital costs for construction, operation of nuclear plants, enormous costs of radioactive fuel storage, and costs for managing a nuclear incident that can reach billions of dollars, as well as price volatility as almost all sources of uranium are in conflict areas.”

The group said it’s “unfortunate” that the order came right after the release of a report by the United Nations-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which highlighted the need for nature-based solutions and strong political commitment to address the climate crisis. — with Marielle C. Lucenio

Consumers to see lower water bills as VAT removed

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
Repairmen work to fix the damaged water pipe along West Avenue, Quezon City, March 3. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

CUSTOMERS of Maynilad Water Services, Inc. and Manila Water Co., Inc. will see lower bills starting this month due to the removal of the 12% value-added tax (VAT), the regulator said on Thursday.

The Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System Regulatory Office (MWSS-RO) said customers’ bills will instead include a 2% national franchise tax and the actual rate of the local franchise tax.

“These changes will result in a reduction in Maynilad and Manila Water customers’ monthly water bills,” MWSS Chief Regulator Patrick N. Ty said at a virtual briefing.

This after Manila Water and Maynilad were granted new legislative franchises to maintain and operate the waterworks systems in their respective concession areas.

“If you have a franchise, you are subject to the franchise tax instead of VAT,” Mr. Ty said, noting the tax rate is determined by local government units (LGUs).

These changes will be reflected as “government tax,” which will range between 2% and 2.85% depending on the LGU.

Mr. Ty said Manila Water and Maynilad customers will see these changes in their bills starting March 21, the date of the effectivity of the two companies’ legislative franchises.

If the government tax rate is at 2%, Maynilad customers consuming 10 cubic meters (cu.m.) will pay P118.78 a month, which is P11.64 less than their current P130.42 monthly bill with the 12% VAT.

On a government tax rate of 2.825%, customers will pay P119.74 a month, a reduction of P10.68 from the previous bill.

Maynilad customers using 20 cu.m. a month will see a reduction of between P40.04 and P43.64 in their bills, while those using 30 cu.m. will pay P81.75 to P89.10 less every month.

Manila Water customers using 10 cu.m. every month will pay P138.40 if the government tax rate is 2%, and P138.83 if the rate is 2.825%, reflecting an average reduction of P12 from the current P151.22 bill.

Low-income households in the Manila Water concession area will see an average reduction of P7 in their monthly bills, while those consuming 20 cu.m. will pay around P27 to P28 less a month. Customers using 30 cu.m. will see bills lowered by P55 to P57 a month.

“The MWSS remains committed to ensuring the availability, accessibility, and affordability of water supply in the East and West Concession Areas,” the agency said.

Maynilad supplies water to customers in the west zone, comprised of Caloocan, Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Makati, and Quezon City, as well as parts of Cavite province.

Manila Water provides water and wastewater services in the east zone of Metro Manila, which includes Marikina, Pasig, Taguig, Makati, San Juan, Mandaluyong, portions of Quezon City and Manila, and Rizal province.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp., which has a majority stake in Maynilad, is one of three Philippine units of Hong Kong-based First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being Philex Mining Corp. and PLDT, Inc.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Higher oil prices may dampen consumption in Asia, PHL

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
A worker cleans LPG gas tanks sold at a distributor in Kamuning, Quezon City, March 1. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE CONTINUED SURGE in global oil prices driven by the war in Ukraine could affect consumption patterns in Asian countries like the Philippines and may in turn impact economic growth, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“The recent escalation in geopolitical tensions is expected to deliver a shock to commodity prices, centered so far on energy prices and wheat prices. In our baseline scenario, we expect Brent oil prices to lift to an average US$110/bbl (barrel) in Q2 from a prior estimate of around US$90/bbl,” JPMorgan Chief Economist for ASEAN Sin Beng Ong said in a note sent to reporters on Wednesday.

Based on his estimates, a $17 per barrel or 20% increase in oil prices to $110/bbl could mean a 0.4-percentage-point (ppt) reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Philippines.

“For emerging market Asia, we estimate that the first order shock on consumption would trim growth by around 0.2 percentage point, with the largest impact on the Philippines,” Mr. Ong said.

South Korea is expected to suffer a 0.3-ppt reduction in GDP, while the economies of China, India, Malaysia, and Thailand are estimated see a 0.2-ppt drop in GDP.

“In our view, there are two main channels through which an adverse energy price shock would impact the region, the first via a negative real income impact on growth, initially via private consumption, and second, with a lag, through trade, which then affects capital spending,” Mr. Ong said.

He said there will be “a sharp decline in the current account balances, with a 0.4% of GDP hit, with the largest impact on Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.”

“If there are limited offsetting capital inflows or indeed outflows, the net impact would be additional pressure on their balance of payments,” Mr. Ong added.

The rising oil prices and its impact on inflation could affect both consumers and businesses, UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said.

“Definitely there will be some cost-push inflation that can soften consumer and business consumption that incidentally are just recovering from the crippling impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic,” Mr. Asuncion said in a Viber message.

The economy expanded by 5.6% in 2021 after a record 9.6% contraction in 2020. Household consumption, which makes up about 70% of the economy, rose by 4.2% last year after slumping by 7.9% in 2020.

Economic managers expect the economy to grow by 7-9% this year, but are keeping a close eye on the impact of higher oil prices, especially on transport and agriculture.

President Rodrigo R. Duterte on Wednesday has approved a P3-billion fuel subsidy program for public utility drivers as well as agricultural workers.

Since the start of the year, gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices per liter rose by P9.65, P11.65, and P10.30.

There are calls to amend the oil deregulation law to include the creation of a strategic petroleum reserve when oil prices are lower.

“This is good because it will soften the blow of any other future oil price shocks,” UnionBank’s Mr. Asuncion said.

Based on JPMorgan estimates, oil and gas accounts for $2.7 billion of the country’s imports.

It also projects that a 20% increase in oil prices will have a 0.8-ppt impact on inflation, given that oil has a 6.9% weight in the Philippine consumer price index.

“Given these shocks, we expect macro-policy to mitigate the price shock via fiscal policy and also for central banks to be more mindful of the growth impact relative to the rise in inflation,” JPMorgan’s Mr. Ong said.

“Thus, central banks may not necessarily respond to the supply-side driven rise in headline inflation, given its negative repercussions for growth, but instead be focused on labor markets and by extension, core inflation, as was the case last year,” he added. 

The BSP raised its inflation forecast for the year to 3.7% from 3.4% previously last month amid higher oil and nonoil prices. Still, it kept interest rates at record lows to support growth but stressed they are ready to act in case there is a need to respond to second-round effects of inflation. — Luz Wendy T. Noble