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World Bank to offer countries access to emergency funds from existing loans

REUTERS

 – The World Bank on Thursday said it approved new initiatives to allow member countries hit by natural disasters and other shocks to quickly access emergency funds from their existing loan programs to help them respond to an increasingly crisis-prone world.

The enhancements to the bank’s Crisis Preparedness and Response Toolkit would allow countries to immediately receive up to 10% of undisbursed funds from an existing project loan or other facility for emergency response.

World Bank Managing Director for Operations Anna Bjerde told Reuters that a country with $3 billion undisbursed from a $5 billion loan portfolio could instantly access $300 million in the event of a hurricane, earthquake or pandemic, a liquidity burst that could save a lot of hardship.

“We hear client after client, from very low-income to middle-income countries, say, ‘When a crisis hits, we’re unprepared financially and we’re having to make all kinds of terrible trade-offs that we don’t want to have to make.'”

The World Bank also will scale up access to larger pre-arranged emergency crisis financing as part of future loan programs that will require crisis-preparedness reforms and other institutional measures to build resilience.

A third component approved by the World Bank executive board is to broadly expand the use of catastrophe insurance products to protect against large-scale disasters. These include catastrophe bonds that provide insurance payouts in the event of hurricanes or other disasters that meet certain thresholds.

Jamaica has been a pioneer in such bonds, and World Bank President Ajay Banga has called for their expansion to shield vulnerable countries’ budgets from climate and other threats, giving them “peace of mind.”

Ms. Bjerde said that under this initiative, funds from project loans that catastrophe bonds would protect can be used to pay fees to arrange their issuance, costs now borne by the countries issuing them.

 

BETTER, FASTER BANK

The changes are part of broader reform efforts at the World Bank to expand the development lender’s mission to tackle climate change and other global crises, and vastly enlarging its lending capacity.

“This is essentially us responding to what we’ve heard” from client countries, Ms. Bjerde said, adding that it was part of Banga’s operational improvement efforts to build a “better bank” before seeking a general capital increase from shareholders.

Another aspect of the operational changes involves speeding up the bank’s loan approvals and disbursements, Ms. Bjerde said. It now takes the bank, which has over 16,000 staff, an average of 27 months from project initiation to the first disbursement of a loan, including 19 months for loan approval.

She said that by the end of the current fiscal year on June 30, that approval time will drop by “a few months” but her ambition is to reduce to 12 months by the end of June 2025, even for the most complex projects like large hydroelectric dams.

“And then I want to speed up the disbursements, because if you’re not disbursing, you’re not really implementing” loans, Ms. Bjerde said. – Reuters

Apple quarterly profit, revenue top Wall Street targets but China lags

BW FILE PHOTO

Apple on Thursday reported sales and profit that beat Wall Street estimates, powered by growth in its iPhone business. But China sales missed analysts’ targets.

The 2% rise in overall fiscal first-quarter sales for the company ended four straight quarters of sales declines on the strength of its iPhone 15 lineup, which includes devices capable of capturing three-dimensional video for the Vision Pro headset being released this week. Apple’s total installed base of devices hit 2.2 billion, up from 2 billion a year ago.

“We did feel good about the plus 6% (revenue growth) for iPhone,” Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook told Reuters in an interview. “We had particularly strong double-digit growth on iPhone in emerging markets outside of China. The iPhone is doing well in those markets.”

He added: “China is the most competitive smartphone market in the world, and that hasn’t changed.”

For its fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 30, Apple reported sales of $119.58 billion and profit of $2.18 per share, both above analyst expectations of $117.91 billion and $2.10 per share, according to data from LSEG.

Sales of iPhones hit $69.70 billion, growing 6% to beat analyst expectations of $67.82 billion, according to LSEG data.

Microsoft in January eclipsed Apple as the world’s most valuable company, with investors viewing Apple as lagging in the artificial-intelligence race between Wall Street’s tech heavyweights. Apple’s stock has dropped more than 3% in 2024, compared with the S&P 500’s .SPX 2% increase.

Apple has said it is researching generative AI but has instead focused on its Vision Pro headset, which analysts do not expect to bring meaningful revenue for several years.

In the shorter term, analysts are increasingly worrying about sales of Apple’s signature device in China, whose economy is navigating the burst of a real estate bubble. The iPhone also faces increasing competition in China and has fallen out of favor in government offices.

Apple said sales in China were $20.82 billion, missing analyst estimates of $23.53 billion, according to LSEG data.

Cook told Reuters that, when accounting for currency exchange rates, iPhone sales in mainland China were down “mid-single digits” in the quarter but said the company’s installed base of iPhones in China is at an all-time high.

Counterpoint Research reported China iPhone unit shipments fell during the quarter, with Chinese consumers looking to novel folding phones and homegrown rival Huawei, which re-entered the market with a flagship phone powered by a Chinese-made chip.

In the rest of Asia beyond China and Japan, Apple’s sales hit $10.16 billion, above analyst estimates of $9.75 billion, according to LSEG data. Cook said that iPhone sales hit an all-time high in South Korea, home to Apple’s longtime rival Samsung Electronics 005930.KS.

Investors will be listening closely for the Cupertino, California-based company’s forecast for the fiscal second quarter on a conference call at 5 p.m. EST (2200 GMT).

The biggest growth area for Apple during its fiscal first quarter was its services business, which includes the Apple TV+ service as well as music, iCloud storage and the App Store, and which rose 11% to $23.12 billion in sales. The results were slightly below analyst expectations of $23.35 billion, according to LSEG data.

But Apple’s App Store faces a challenge in Europe, where a new law that takes effect in March will allow developers to skip paying commissions to Apple and place alternative app stores on the iPhone.

Apple’s first-quarter Mac sales were up slightly to $7.78 billion, in line with analyst expectations of $7.73 billion, according to LSEG data. Sales of iPads were down 25% to $7.02 billion, missing expectations of $7.33 billion, according to LSEG data.

Apple’s wearables segment, which includes its AirPods and Apple Watch sales, fell to $11.95 billion after company executives had warned of weak demand. The results were just above expectations of $11.56 billion, according to LSEG data.

Several Apple Watch models have been at the center of a legal dispute with medical device maker Masimo and were briefly pulled from shelves before Apple removed a blood-oxygen monitoring features to comply with legal rulings and keep selling the devices. – Reuters

Musk seeks Tesla shareholder vote on moving incorporation to Texas

DANIEL OBERHAUS-FLICKER

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Thursday the company will hold a shareholder vote to transfer its state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware, after a judge invalidated his $56 billion pay package at the electric vehicle (EV) maker.

Delaware judge Kathaleen McCormick had on Tuesday called the 2018 share-based pay package  the largest in corporate America  “an unfathomable sum” that was unfair to shareholders and found it was negotiated by directors who appeared beholden to Mr. Musk.

“Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware,” Mr. Musk posted on social media X shortly after the ruling.

But getting shareholders on board could be a hurdle for Mr. Musk, should he go through with the vote. He would almost certainly face investor lawsuits, particularly if it was seen as a move to secure his pay package, legal experts said.

“Shareholders need to take a hard look at how transitioning out of Delaware might impact their rights and the company’s governance,” Independent business adviser Keith Donovan said.

There could also be some dispute over the level of support Musk would need to change Tesla’s governing rules for the move.

Some specific changes require two-thirds of shareholders to back. If Tesla were to adopt a Texas charter that did not change the provisions that require a super majority, it would likely be able to move to Texas with a simple majority, said Ann Lipton, a professor at Tulane University Law School.

It would take at least 40 to 60 days to organize a shareholder vote, although the US Securities and Exchange Commission could slow the process by requiring additional disclosures, she said.

Tesla shares closed about 1% higher on Thursday. After more than doubling in 2023, the stock has lost roughly a quarter of its value this year due to growing concerns of soft EV demand.

The ruling is not the first time that Mr. Musk has suffered a setback in Delaware.

Ms. McCormick was the same judge who oversaw Twitter’s July 2022 lawsuit against Mr. Musk after he tried to back out of his contract to buy the social media platform for $44 billion. The judge rejected his delaying tactics and Musk finally went through with the deal.

“Mr. Musk must believe that Texas judges are more ‘business friendly’ than their Delaware counterparts… Mr. Musk must be assuming that Texas judges willtake a more relaxed approach to the issue than Delaware judges,” said Brian Cheffins, a professor of corporate law at Cambridge University.

“It is far from clear Texas judges will do so.”

More than 65% of Fortune 500 companies and over half of all US publicly traded companies are incorporated in Delaware, lured by the state’s business-friendly legal framework and tax policies, according to Harvard Business Services, a firm offering Delaware business formation services.

US public companies look to incorporate in Delaware for access to the state’s courts. Its corporate law places greater restraints on management and is more protective of investors than states like Nevada, making it cheaper for Delaware companies to raise capital.

TripAdvisor and its parent company are currently defending a lawsuit by their shareholders, who have challenged the company’s plans to re-incorporate in Nevada from Delaware.

 

MUSK AND LONE STAR

Mr. Musk has also recently said he would be uncomfortable growing the automaker to be a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics without at least 25% voting control of the company, which is nearly double his current stake.

“What’s more concerning is he has a lot of AI efforts in Tesla, and if he doesn’t get his way with his pay package, what will he do in terms of those efforts diminishing in Tesla and going somewhere else?” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at shareholder Globalt Investments.

Mr. Musk has more than a small interest in Texas.

He shifted Tesla’s corporate headquarters to the state from California in 2021 after criticizing California’s regulations and taxes, and clashing with health officials at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic over reopening a factory in Fremont.

One of the EV maker’s gigafactories is in Texas, where it is also planning an over $750 million expansion. It is also building a lithium refinery in the state, aiming to produce enough for about 1 million EVs by 2025.

Mr. Musk’s other companies – SpaceX and The Boring Company – also have operations in Texas.

Mr. Musk, like in the past, held a poll on X, and proclaimed that the 87% “yes” vote out of 1.1 million total votes was a deciding factor.

“The public vote is unequivocally in favor of Texas! Tesla will move immediately to hold a shareholder vote to transfer state of incorporation to Texas,” Mr. Musk said on X. – Reuters

TikTok users losing access to Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish songs

REUTERS

TikTok users will no longer be able to create videos with songs from Taylor Swift, Jon Batiste, boygenius and other Universal Music Group UMG.AS artists as the soundtrack, as contract negotiations between the two companies have collapsed.

TikTok’s access to Universal’s expansive roster of artists ended Wednesday, after months of negotiations failed to yield a new agreement with the world’s largest music company. TikTok has begun muting short videos featuring the label’s artists.

The high-profile dispute erupted as the music industry executives and artists gathered in Los Angeles for Sunday’s Grammy award ceremony.

“Our agreements with TikTok have expired because of TikTok’s unwillingness to appropriately compensate artists and songwriters, protect human artists from the harmful effects of AI, and address online safety issues for TikTok’s users,” a Universal spokesman said in a statement Thursday.

The label is asking TikTok to compensate artists a rate commensurate with what other social media platforms pay. Now, it accounts for only 1% of total revenue — though music is a core part of the experience on the app, Universal Music said in an open letter published Tuesday.

Universal Music also said TikTok is allowing the platform to be “flooded” with recordings generated by artificial intelligence, which dilutes the royalty pool for artists. It also raised concerns about “problematic content,” such as sexualized images of Billie Eilish, which reportedly went viral and were seen by millions of people before it was removed for violating community guidelines.

TikTok declined comment Thursday.

In an earlier statement, TikTok said Universal Music put “greed above the interests of their artists and songwriters.” The social video platform said the music label is walking away from its powerful promotional platform that reaches more than a billion users.

“TikTok has been able to reach ‘artist-first’ agreements with every other label and publisher,” TikTok said in its statement. “Clearly, Universal’s self-serving actions are not in the best interests of artists, songwriters and fans.”

On Thursday, Taylor Swift’s TikTok account, which has 23.9 million followers, displayed a notice that said “The music is currently unavailable.” The alert appeared under a tab that previously let users browse Swift’s songs.

TikTok published a report in November touting its role as a “launchpad for creating viral hits and breaking new artists.” Its Music Impact Report found that TikTok helped users discover music and connect with artists. It also reported that its users are more likely to use a paid music streaming services, creating value for the artists.

“Even though TikTok (formerly Musical.ly) has built one of the world’s largest and most valuable social media platforms off the backs of artists and songwriters, TikTok still argues that artists should be grateful for the ‘free promotion,'” Universal said.

Wall Street analysts praised Universal for the move. J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven said in a research note that the label “had little to lose and much to gain,” estimating it would lose less than $109 million from pulling off TikTok, which would be partially offset by users listening to music on competitor apps.

The muting of countless chart-topping songs has prompted shock among some young users, who use the music as background audio for TikTok trends.

One user named Alexa posted a slow motion video of herself shaking her head with a look of disbelief, adding the text “What do you mean they’re taking Taylor Swift’s music off of TikTok???”

It prompted some jokes that fans would have turn to Meta’s short-form video competitor, regarded by some as a less-cool version of TikTok.

“We have to move to (Instagram) Reels I fear,” one commentator posted.Reuters

Greta Thunberg says remember ‘the real enemy’ as oil protest trial starts

Source: http://tinyurl.com/3xf3xvjy | CC BY-SA 4.0
Source: http://tinyurl.com/3xf3xvjy | CC BY-SA 4.0

 – Greta Thunberg said on Thursday people should remember who “the real enemy is” after she and four other environmental activists appeared in court charged with a public order offence at a protest outside an oil and gas conference.

Ms. Thunberg, who became a prominent campaigner worldwide after staging weekly protests in front of the Swedish parliament in 2018, spoke after the first day of the hearing at London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court.

All five defendants, who are aged between 19 and 59 and have pleaded not guilty, are accused of failing to comply with an order by senior police officers to move their protest to a designated area near the conference last year.

If convicted, they would face a maximum fine of 2,500 pounds ($3,160) each.

Ms. Thunberg, 21, spoke outside court alongside two other defendants after the end of proceedings on Thursday.

“Even though we are the ones standing here and climate, environmental and human rights activists all over the world are being prosecuted, sometimes convicted and given legal penalties for acting in line with science, we must remember who the real enemy is,” Ms. Thunberg said.

“What are we defending? Who are our laws meant to protect?”

Ms. Thunberg was arrested on Oct. 17 while protesting outside a hotel where the Energy Intelligence Forum was hosting oil and gas industry leaders.

Prosecutor Luke Staton said that Ms. Thunberg was told by police that she needed to leave or would be arrested and was given a “final warning”.

“She said that she was staying where she was and so she was arrested,” the prosecutor added.

Ms. Thunberg sat in the well of the court and wrote in a notebook throughout the hearing. Video of her arrest was played to the court, in which protesters chanted “oily money out”.

A smiling Ms. Thunberg earlier made her way through photographers and police officers to chants of “climate protest is not a crime” by environmental activists outside the court.

The trial is being conducted by a judge without a jury and is expected to conclude on Friday, when Ms. Thunberg is expected to give evidence. – Reuters

Factory activity further eases in Jan.

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY in the Philippines eased for a second straight month in January as new orders and output rose at a slower pace, S&P Global said on Thursday.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 50.9 in January from 51.5 in December. A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions than in the preceding month, while a reading below 50 shows a deterioration.

“The turn of the year revealed a slight weakness in demand conditions, as new orders and output growth eased,” Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

In its report, S&P Global said while January marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion, this was still “weaker than the series average and only marginal overall.”

The Philippines’ PMI reading was the second fastest among six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in January, just behind Indonesia (52.9) and ahead of Vietnam (50.3).

Meanwhile, Malaysia (49), Thailand (46.7) and Myanmar (44.3) registered contractions in manufacturing output. On average, the ASEAN headline PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 49.7 in December.

S&P Global said the Philippines saw a “muted improvement” in factory activity in January amid weaker demand.

“A cooling demand environment, especially from overseas markets, led to factory orders rising only fractionally in January, and at the weakest pace in the current five-month sequence of growth,” it said.

As demand softened, S&P Global noted that manufacturers increased production levels at a “historically subdued rate.”

“Ater easing for the second successive month, the pace of growth was the weakest since August 2023,” it added.

On the other hand, purchasing activity improved as manufacturers expanded their inventory in anticipation of stronger sales in the next few months.

Buying activity grew at its strongest pace in six months, S&P Global said.

“In addition, despite a continued deterioration in vendor performance arising from material shortages and port congestion, companies were able to build their stocks of purchases in January. Pre-production inventories rose for the fourth consecutive month, and at a pace that was broadly in line with the survey average,” it said.

S&P Global also noted stocks of finished goods rose for the first time in three months. “With firms working through backlogs and new order growth cooling, companies were instead able to build their stocks,” it added.

Data also showed cost pressures cooled during the month.

“In terms of prices, inflationary pressures were historically muted, and even softened at the turn of the year. In fact, output charges rose at one of the weakest rates since the series began in January 2016,” it said.

S&P Global noted that manufacturing firms left their employment figures unchanged in January, ending two months of job cuts.

“Cost constraints and resignations meant job shedding was still recorded at some firms. However, helping to counterbalance, some companies were more willing to take on additional staff amid anticipated growth in new orders,” it added.

Meanwhile, Filipino manufacturers remained upbeat in their outlook for the rest of the year, even as confidence level eased to the lowest in three months.

“Looking forward, global headwinds and sluggish demand from external markets, especially China, are likely to weigh on the Filipino manufacturing sector,” S&P Global’s Ms. Baluch said.

China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez said that the manufacturing sector has faced challenges mainly due to “subdued demand from international markets.”

“The recovery in the demand for semiconductors, which are increasingly used in electric vehicles and AI, has not yet gained firm momentum. However, we are optimistic of a stronger rebound in the second half of the year, aligned with the industry’s outlook,” Ms. Velasquez said in a Viber message.

She noted demand for manufactured goods in the country is likely to pick up as inflation further eases.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the slower pace of manufacturing expansion could be attributed to the high interest rate environment.

“Manufacturing and other economic activities tend to slow down upon crossing the new year, after some seasonal increase in the fourth quarter or in preparation for the Christmas holiday season, when there is a seasonal surge, if not, peak in demand for many businesses,” he said in a Viber message.

For the coming months, Mr. Ricafort said that easing inflation would help support manufacturing activity.

“Additionally, the positive outlook reported by surveyed firms brings further optimism for the performance of the manufacturing sector in the coming months,” Ms. Velasquez added.

BSP likely to mirror Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ approach — analysts

The main office of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in Manila. — BW FILE PHOTO

By Keisha B. Ta-asan, Reporter

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to adopt a cautious approach on monetary policy this year, as it will likely wait for the US Federal Reserve to cut rates before starting to loosen policy.

This is after the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates steady for the fourth straight meeting on Thursday. The target Fed funds rate is currently at the 5.25-5.5% range, after the Fed hiked by 525 basis points (bps) from March 2022 to July 2023.

However, US Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at a news conference said policy easing is unlikely in March, dashing market expectations of rate cuts in the first quarter.

“The pause adds to the data we are looking at,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. told BusinessWorld in a Viber message. “The statement was slightly more hawkish than before.”

While the decision of the US Fed to keep rates steady was widely expected, Mr. Powell revealed a cautious approach due to mixed economic data, Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a Viber message.

“This ‘wait-and-see’ stance by the Fed is likely to influence the BSP meeting on Feb. 15. Given the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the Fed’s impact on the peso, the BSP might adopt a similar cautious ap-proach,” Mr. Roces said.

China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez in a Viber message said the Fed will likely deliver rate cuts around the middle or the second half of the year.

“Regarding the timing of monetary policy adjustments, we anticipate that the BSP will wait for the Fed to cut rates before initiating any easing measures. This approach aims to maintain interest rate differentials at their current levels, ensuring a balance for the stability of the Philippine peso,” she said.

ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa in an e-mail said any rate adjustments from the BSP will be based on the Fed’s own policy moves.

“Thus, we believe that any rate reduction over in the Philippines will only likely take place once the Fed begins its pivot. We believe that the BSP will be on hold in the first quarter and possibly also in the second quarter, de-pending on the Fed,” he said.

After hiking key policy rates by 350 bps in 2022, the Monetary Board tightened borrowing costs by another 100 bps throughout 2023, which brought the key rate to 6.5%, the highest in 16 years.

Mr. Remolona earlier said he does not see any possibility of a rate cut in the first half of the year, and there is still room to raise interest rates amid risks to inflation and robust economic growth.

The first rate-setting meeting of the seven-member Monetary Board is scheduled on Feb. 15.

“The (BSP’s) decision will involve balancing the Fed’s position, future signals, and domestic factors like inflation and growth,” Mr. Roces said.

Mr. Roces said the Fed may consider policy easing in the second half of 2023 to support growth in the US economy.

However, the BSP will prioritize the country’s inflation dynamics first in determining the extent of its own rate adjustment, Ms. Velasquez said.

“As the BSP’s risk-adjusted inflation expectations for 2024 remain above the 4% target, it is likely that BSP rate cuts will be minimal throughout the year. Our base case scenario suggests the possibility of two rate cuts, with a potential for three if inflation slows down more rapidly than anticipated,” she said.

The BSP sees headline inflation averaging 3.7% this year, lower than the 6% average in 2023, before easing to 3.2% in 2025.

Should risks materialize, the BSP’s risk-adjusted forecasts show that inflation could settle above the 2-4% target, or at 4.2%, this year. For 2025, the BSP’s risk-adjusted inflation forecast is at 3.4%.

Meanwhile, ING’s Mr. Mapa said the Fed may begin to cut borrowing costs as early as May.

“We believe the BSP should consider rate cuts shortly after to help shore up flagging growth momentum,” he said.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and falling short of the government’s 6-7% target.

The government is targeting 6.5-7.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year.

“The 2023 GDP growth was indeed positive but failed to hit the downwardly revised growth target for the year, highlighting the early impact of policy tightening carried out by the BSP,” Mr. Mapa said.

He cited earlier remarks from Mr. Remolona, who said the full impact of the BSP’s aggressive tightening will likely be felt this year.

“Given that policy rate hikes have only a marginal impact on fighting off supply side inflation, the inflation we are seeing in the Philippines today, we believe the proper response for the BSP would be to allow supply-side measures to be rolled out by fiscal authorities while at the same time provide a fostering environment for long-term structural reform,” he said.

Mr. Roces said even though the Fed’s actions will influence the BSP, the Monetary Board will focus on the domestic economic situation.

“If the Fed eases in the second half, creating more favorable global conditions, and if Philippine data allow for it, the BSP will ease policy to promote growth while managing inflation. But the timing and extent of such adjust-ments will depend on how economic scenarios unfold globally and locally,” he added.

PHL growth momentum seen to continue this year

A man checks out the Chinese New Year display inside a mall in Dasmariñas, Cavite, Feb. 1. -- Photo by EDD GUMBAN, The Philippine Star

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is seen expanding faster this year, although meeting the government’s growth target may be difficult amid tight monetary policy, analysts said.

In a note on Thursday, BMI Country Risk & Industry Research said it sees the Philippine economy continuing its strong growth momentum after gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.6% in 2023.

“The latest growth figures reflect the resilience of the Philippine economy and we think that this momentum will continue going into the new year. 2024 looks set to be another strong year and we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.2%,” it said.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that GDP growth print in 2023 was much slower than the 7.6% expansion in 2022 and was below the government’s full-year target of 6-7% last year.

According to BMI, the uptick in investment helped prop up economic expansion in the fourth quarter, even as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) maintained tight monetary policy.

Gross capital formation jumped by 11.2% in the October-December period, faster than 3.3% a year ago and a turnaround from the 1.4% decline in the third quarter. This brought the full-year expansion of gross capital formation to 5.4%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said the Philippine economy may grow to 6.3% this year, especially as headwinds last year are now subsiding.

“Consumer and investment spending growth may accelerate further as inflation slowly moves within the 2-4% target of the central bank,” it said.

Household final consumption jumped by 5.3% in the fourth quarter, faster than 5.1% in the previous quarter but slower than 7% a year earlier.

In 2023, household spending expanded by 5.6%, much slower than 8.3% in 2022. Private consumption accounts for about three-fourths of the economy.

BPI said that inflation is expected to slow in the next three months due to base effects, but the consumer price index (CPI) may breach the 2-4% target again in the second quarter before easing back to the target in the second half.

“Despite this, average inflation for the year is expected to settle at 3.7%. The BSP might be able to cut interest rates in the second half of 2024, which can provide relief to those who borrowed heavily before the 2022 rate hikes,” BPI said.

To tame inflation, the BSP tightened borrowing costs by a total of 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023, bringing the key rate to a 16-year high of 6.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier ruled out a rate cut in the first half amid risks to the inflation outlook, but he said the BSP may start considering policy easing in the second semester of the year.

“The BSP may keep its rates steady in the first half of the year, taking into account a possible inflation rebound in the second quarter. Rate cuts are possible in the second half of the year once inflation is firmly within the target of the central bank,” BPI said.

But the timing and size of rate cuts would depend on future policy moves from the US Federal Reserve as well, it said.

“If local inflation conditions are right, the BSP will likely respond immediately with rate cuts once the Fed begins its easing cycle,” the bank added.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Global Research said the growth in investment may not be sustained in the first half of the year, as the central bank will not be cutting borrowing costs until May.

“The stronger-than-expected GDP may also mean more price pressure and hence, restrain the Bangko Sentral from cutting sooner,” it said.

‘TOO OPTIMISTIC’

Fitch Solutions’ BMI noted the Philippine economy may not be able to achieve the government’s 6.5-7.5% target despite the strong growth momentum.

“With tight monetary policy and likely fiscal pullbacks weighing on global demand, we think that the government’s official growth projections of 6.5-7.5% in 2024 might prove a tad too optimistic,” it said.

BMI also sees a slowdown in trading activity amid weak global demand. It projected global growth may slow to 2.1% in 2024 from 2.5% in 2023.

Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco in a note said Philippine GDP growth may slow to 4.8% this year.

“That said, we no longer think the BSP will rush to start normalizing policy in the wake of the fourth quarter’s solid headlines; we now expect rate cuts to start in the second quarter, most likely from May,” he said.

Meanwhile, Jean de Castro, head of fixed income from Manulife Investment Management and Trust Corp. Philippines said the government will likely meet its growth target this year, but at the lower end of the 6.5-7.5% range.

“Should inflation continue to moderate, growth in household consumption might improve given the recent increase in minimum wage and decline in unemployment rate,” she said.

Ms. De Castro also expects household and government spending to be the main growth drivers this year, but elevated inflation and interest rates are still the major risks.

The BSP sees full-year inflation at 3.7% this year and 3.2% for 2025. However, should risks materialize, the risk-adjusted inflation forecasts show average CPI may hit 4.2% in 2024 and 3.4% next year.

The BSP is scheduled to have its first policy review of the year on Feb. 15. — Keisha B. Ta-asan

Red Sea crisis has ‘little impact’ on European businesses in PHL

A container ship crosses the Gulf of Suez towards the Red Sea before entering the Suez Canal, April 24, 2017. — REUTERS

THE RED SEA shipping crisis has “little impact” on European companies doing business in the Philippines, the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (ECCP) said.

“It does not necessarily have a big impact because most of the European companies that are established in Southeast Asia also have local production in the region,” said Paulo Duarte, president of the ECCP, at a media briefing on Wednesday.

“So, this will not be a critical factor, but it’s something that we need to observe how it’s going to be developed,” he added.

Shipping traffic through the Red Sea has been disrupted as Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to attack cargo ships and tankers. The northern part of the Red Sea — the Suez Canal — accounts for around 12% of global trade or 30% of overall global container traffic.

In 2022, about a fourth of all goods imports to the EU were transported via ships from Asia, most of which passed through the Suez Canal.

Mr. Duarte said businesses are “positive” on opportunities in the Philippines.

“(But) we cannot ignore that outside of the Philippines, there are some dark clouds that are not helping,” he said. “But this is not a critical point for European companies, because most of them have already established local structures and local manufacturing in the region so this is something they can overcome.”

Mr. Duarte noted the Philippines should try to take advantage of the situation and invite more European businesses to establish local manufacturing hubs here.

“This could also be an opportunity for the Philippines to attract more European companies to the country because that will allow them to reduce their dependence on such things,” he said, referring to the operations affected due to the Red Sea crisis.

Sought for comment, Trade Secretary Alfredo E. Pascual said the government is looking to attract European businesses that are trying to expand operations here.

“Those that are targeting the ASEAN or Southeast Asian markets but cannot ship to those markets might set up their production and operations here,” he told reporters on Thursday.

“We are now talking with them and there’s going to be a visit to Europe within the next couple months.”

Mr. Pascual said the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is assessing the situation in the Red Sea and will provide advice for Philippine exporters affected by the shipping disruption.

Data from the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) showed that there are 448 business enterprises engaged in exports to Europe and 523 businesses are engaged in imports from Europe.

The investment promotion agency conducted a survey among the PEZA-registered business enterprises (RBEs) doing business with Europe, and found out that most of the respondents or 252 RBEs said that they are not affected by the crisis.

Only 84 RBEs said their operations were significantly affected by the Red Sea crisis.

For exporters, the RBEs said the Red Sea crisis has resulted in shipping delays of seven days to one month as ships chose to travel via the Cape of Good Hope.

Importers, on the other hand, noted delays of seven days to 20 days in shipments.

Businesses also noted the crisis has resulted in shortages of containers, late confirmation of booking, limited vessels, and port congestion in many areas.

PEZA noted RBEs reported freight costs to Europe and the Middle East have surged by 100%-400%, which is why they resorted to air freight.

Last week, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) raised concerns over the disruptions in global trade stemming from geopolitical tensions affecting shipping through the Black Sea, Red Sea and Panama Canal.

UNCTAD said that it saw a 42% decline in weekly transits going through the Suez Canal in the last two months as major players have suspended Suez Canal transits.

“Notably, container ship transits per week have plummeted by 67% compared to a year ago, with container carrying capacity, tanker transits, and gas carriers experiencing significant declines,” it added. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Brand builders on using artificial intelligence

Thank you for an insightful conversation. From L-R: Moderator Ken Lerona (Home Credit), Speaker JL Erestain (AdSpark), Panelist Fitzgerald Chee (BPI), Panelist Vicky Marquez (Thinking Machines) with Chrissy Roa (Ayala Land Inc.) and President Mick Atienza (Smart Communications).

By Jomarc Angelo M. Corpuz

As with any transformative technology, artificial intelligence (AI) brings a host of advantages and disadvantages, shaping the discourse around its adoption and regulation.

On one hand, continuous advancements in technology have made AI an innovative force that has impacted every facet of daily life. On the other, AI has also caused concern, especially in the areas of job displacements, dependency and reliability, and of course, existential risks.

In a panel discussion entitled “Brand building in the age of Artificial Intelligence” during the Philippine Association of National Advertisers’ (PANA) first General Membership Meeting last Jan. 25, the Adspark COO JL Erestain, Vicky Marquez of Thinking Machines, and Fitzgerald Chee of the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) delved into how AI can affect brand building and advertising for better or worse.

Mr. Erestain started the forum with a speech encouraging a room full of industry leaders and brand builders in the Ascott Hotel in Makati to see what AI could bring to their respective brands and companies rather than hesitating to try the relatively new technology.

“We all have questions about AI. How to tap its powers, how to use it without getting lost in the new tech’s ways? And with AI changing faster than a chameleon, it is natural to feel uninformed” the COO of Adspark commented. “So instead of fearing AI, let’s explore what it could mean for brands like ours.”

He also spoke about how brand builders can benefit from using AI in their industry, noting that it has the potential to make their tasks smarter, faster, and better.

“When we forget about the fancy passwords and when we talk about real results, AI can actually be your human in all sorts of ways like managing tech roles and keeping customers happy with chatbots. AI has got your back,” Mr. Erestain added.

Where can brands start

“In terms of starting, at least the way that I think of it, it’s in phases,” Ms. Marquez of Thinking Machines said.

She stated how organizations have different levels of exposure and experience in using AI. There are some businesses who are just starting; there are some who would like to mature; and there are also some who already have advanced knowledge of the technology.

“It’s about using [Chat GPT and Bard] to really try to inform yourself and, at the same time, also engaging with other experts [of artificial intelligence]” Ms. Marquez added.

For businesses who would like to mature, she advised that it’s all about building new spaces. For her, a good place to start is large language models (LLM). LLM is an AI algorithm that uses deep learning techniques and massively large data sets to know and understand how humans interact and speak allowing a more humanizing experience with the user.

Meanwhile, Mr. Chee of BPI shared anecdotes about how their company came up with the idea of using artificial intelligence not only for their employees but also for their customers.

“For us in the digital space, it’s really on how we can help our clients better their management of finances. On the other side, it’s also about the business itself. How we can better be more efficient so that we can better serve our clients.” Mr. Chee said when asked about why BPI began using AI.

Additionally, Mr. Erestain said that brand builders and advertisers can start small by pinpointing areas in their work where AI can help; but they have to do so immediately.

“What you need to do is to identify that small process or small need in your brand-building process where you think AI can help you. Then, you can ask for help from others, like Thinking Machine, and get experts to help you navigate the AI journey,” the Adspark COO noted.

AI and creative resistance

One of the misconceptions floating around when it comes to AI is that it might cause job displacement. Among all the people in the brand-building industry, individuals from the creative side are always the most resistant when it comes to AI. This is because AI makes their jobs easier and may eventually replace them.

Regarding this misconception and resistance, Ms. Marquez noted that several factors have to be considered when it comes to this conversation, including a brand builder’s relationship with their people, knowledge about the wonders of AI that they use in their daily lives, and the fact that AI can be a tool that helps them.

Another concern that creatives may have when they use AI is how they can be too dependent on the technology. When a participant in the meeting asked about this dependency, he noted that while AI does make his work more efficient, his reliance on the technology made him less efficient when he does work without it.

In response, Mrs. Marquez said that it takes will and a lot of process-building to make sure that people don’t over-rely on AI.

“It’s about cultivating creativity in other ways, outside of work, outside of personal life,” she said. “I think that’s a great way to kind of remind and exercise that part of your brain that is creative.”

What’s next for AI

AI in general can supercharge brands. From pinpointing targeted audiences to crafting personalized messages for press briefs, the technology can help significantly improve the efficiency of an organization.

When asked about what’s next for artificial intelligence, Mr. Erestain pointed out the possibilities that may already be happening.

“So what’s next? The rules of branding are being rewritten by AI. What will loyalty programs look like in the metaverse? How will AI write stories that touch our hearts? And the AI-powered brand landscape is changing, so what’s next [might be] what’s already here,” he stated.

“Everyone will be forced to use artificial intelligence whether we like it or not. What that implies is that all the tasks that are automatable will be delegated to AI. I know that sounds scary, but that just means that will be shifting our priorities” Mrs. Marquez added.

CREC gets approval for initial public offering

By Sheldeen Joy Talavera, Reporter

SAAVEDRA-LED Citicore Renewable Energy Corp. (CREC) has obtained the approval of the Philippines Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) for its planned P12.9-billion initial public offering (IPO).

In an e-mailed statement on Thursday, the renewable energy company said that PSE issued its notice of approval on Jan. 29, approving the listing of its up to over 10.04 million common shares.

The final price offer will be determined on March 6, with the offer period scheduled from March 11 to 15. The tentative listing and the start of trading on the exchange are set for March 22.

CREC is set to offer up to 2.9 billion common shares at a maximum price of P3.88 apiece, including an additional 435 million outstanding common shares for overallotment.

“Proceeds from the IPO will be used to partially fund CREC’s capital expenditures and pipeline development for solar energy plants and battery energy storage system (BESS), as well as general corporate purposes,” the company said.

As of Sept. 30, the company had a total installed capacity of 285.1 megawatts across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

CREC intends to add approximately one gigawatt of ready to build/under construction solar energy capacity each year through 2027.

“The PSE’s approval is subject to CREC’s compliance with all PSE-mandated conditions and requirements,” it said.

On Jan. 17, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued the pre-effective approval for CREC’s IPO.

CREC President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Oliver Y. Tan has said that the company plans to spend around P35 billion in capital expenditures this year for renewable energy (RE) projects.

Sought for comment, China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said that the market will closely watch CREC’s IPO but ponder on “whether market conditions are conducive enough for successful IPOs.”

“The performance of the CREC offering will help answer that,” Mr. Colet said in a Viber message.

Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce said that CREC’s IPO may be well-received due to the growing emphasis on renewable energy in the country.

“Investors will scrutinize CREC’s financial health, growth aspects, and past performance. A strong track record, sound financials, and a clear business strategy may enhance the IPO’s reception,” Mr. Arce said in a Viber message.

CREC is the parent company of Citicore Energy REIT Corp. (CREIT), the country’s first real estate investment trust listing focused on renewable energy. CREIT concluded its IPO in February 2022, which raised P6.4 billion.

On its debut, CREIT’s shares closed at P2.84 apiece, higher by 11.37% than its IPO price of P2.55.

“I don’t think this should be directly compared with CREIT because CREC has a different business model as a renewable energy developer whereas CREIT is basically a lessor,“ Mr. Colet said.

“CREC will try to attract an investor base that is willing to take more risk for potentially higher returns versus the steady yield growth of CREIT,” he added.

Mr. Colet noted, however, that the future growth of CREIT may depend on CREC because of “the expectation that the latter will provide the former with a pipeline of future asset infusions.”

“I welcome the decision of CREC to tap the equities market to raise capital since RE projects are very much needed these days given that we are racing against time to address climate issues,” PSE President and CEO Ramon S. Monzon said in a statement.

With its clearance of the first IPO for 2024, the PSE is expecting at least six IPOs this year.

Women’s pop culture power takes center stage at Sunday’s Grammys

LOS ANGELES — Women are poised to pile up the gold at the Grammy awards on Sunday, reflecting a rise in female representation on pop music charts and record-setting performances at stadium concerts and cinemas.

Taylor Swift, SZA, and songs from the Oscar-nominated Barbie movie lead the competition for the music industry’s highest honors. Jon Batiste is the only man among eight nominees for album of the year, the top Grammy prize.

SZA, the female singer of revenge fantasy Kill Bill, will head into the ceremony as the most-nominated artist with nine nominations.

The strong showing coincided with a year of milestones for women in entertainment and gains in the predominantly male music business.

Ms. Swift’s Eras Tour broke ticket sales records, eclipsing Elton John’s, at the same time Beyoncé played to packed stadiums. Barbie created a pink-fueled phenomenon at cinemas, where Ms. Swift’s concert film also became a blockbuster.

“Women had a phenomenal year, not just in music, but in Barbie being the biggest-grossing movie,” said Billboard awards editor Paul Grein. “Women dominated pop culture.”
In addition to Ms. Swift and SZA, the other women vying for this year’s album prize are Miley Cyrus, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo, Janelle Monae, and boygenius, the band featuring indie rock musicians Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers, and Lucy Dacus.

It is just the 12th time in the Grammys’ 66-year history, Mr. Grein said, that women received the majority of nominations for album of the year.

In other categories, hits from the Barbie movie landed 12 Grammy nominations, including a song of the year nod for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”

RECORDING ACADEMY RECRUITS WOMEN
Changing demographics in the Recording Academy, the group of musicians, producers, engineers, and others who vote on the Grammy nominees and winners, likely prompted a shift. Since 2019, the percentage of female members has risen to 30% from 26%.

“They have been aggressively recruiting new members, especially members of color and women,” Mr. Grein said. “They are infusing the membership with a lot of members who will probably see things differently.”

Some of the male competition was between albums. Harry Styles, Bad Bunny, and other past Grammy winners did not release new music during the eligibility period of October 2022 through Sept. 15, 2023.

Still, the percentage of women artists on the Billboard Hot 100 at the end of 2023 reached 35%, a 12-year high, according to a study by the USC Annenberg Inclusion Initiative and professor Stacy L. Smith.

Women also made gains behind the scenes, with women of color driving the first increase in female songwriting credits in 12 years. Nearly 20% of songwriters were women, up from 14% a year earlier.

While far from reaching parity, female musicians made significant progress in just a few years, Ms. Smith said.

“When you look at the data, you see that the collective action across the music industry is moving toward women,” she said. “That we haven’t seen before.”

The realm of producers ticked up but remained predominantly male. In 2023, women received 6.5% of producer credits. No women were nominated for the Grammy for producer of the year.

Women also saw less success in Grammy categories for rock, dance, and hip-hop, said Tatiana Cirisano, senior music industry analyst for MIDiA Research.

“What we have here is a year in which several female superstars had extraordinary hits,” Ms. Cirisano said. “Yet overall, gender imbalances have not shifted as much as we would hope.”

On Sunday, several women could make history at the Grammys.

Swift would be the first artist to win album of the year four times if she claims the trophy for Midnights.

If SZA prevails with SOS, she would be the first Black woman to win album of the year as a lead artist since Lauryn Hill received the honor 25 years ago.

Winners will be announced at a ceremony broadcast live from downtown Los Angeles on CBS and streamed on Paramount+. — Reuters