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Out of contention PHL battles Indonesia at Asian Qualifiers

Match Tuesday
(Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia )
7:30 p.m. (8:30 p.m. in Manila) — Indonesia vs Philippines

THE PHILIPPINES may be bowing out of the FIFA World Cup Asian Qualifiers (WCQ) but it intends to do so swinging as it faces Indonesia Tuesday at the cavernous Gelora Bung Karno (GBK) Stadium in Jakarta.

With only one point on one draw and four losses, the Filipinos are no longer in contention for the two tickets to the third round of the WCQ at stake in Group F.  But they’re motivated nonetheless to fight it out in the 7:30 p.m. road gig (8:30 p.m. in Manila) before an expected 70,000-strong crowd at GBK.

“It’s the last match for us. Sadly enough, we are out of contention to reach that goal, but we are looking forward to the game,” said Philippine coach Tom Saintfiet.”

“We will do everything to get a result. A draw would be fantastic, a win would be a miracle. But it is our duty for the Philippine fans, for our development, our country, to try and get the maximum points here, even if we know that Indonesia will be the favorite.”

Mr. Saintfiet looks to build on this as his youth-laden crew shifts to the next battles like the Mitsubishi Electric Cup and the next round of the qualifiers for the AFC Asian Cup.

It’s a must-win game for the Indonesians, who are seeking to join runaway group winner Iraq (15 points on five straight wins) in the march to Round 3.

The Merah Putih run second with seven points on 2-1-2 win-draw-loss and are disputing the second berth with third-running Vietnam (six points on 2-0-3). The Vietnamese shoot for a road victory against Iraq in Basra hours after the Indonesia-Philippine match in Jakarta. — Olmin Leyba

PSC Invitational Golf Cup to raise funds for Paris-bound athletes

THE PHILIPPINE Sports Commission (PSC) is set to raise additional funds for Paris Olympics and Paralympic Games-bound athletes by conducting the PSC Invitational Golf Cup at the Canlubang Golf and Country Club on June 14.

“We would like to thank all the sponsors who have committed their support for this event and we ensure these can go a long way for our athletes vying to continue the legacy we built in the Olympics and Paralympic Games,” PSC Chairman Richard Bachmann said.

The project aims to gather more than P2 million to be equally distributed to the qualified athletes as they start training for the summer games.

As of writing, the country’s Paris Olympic roster stands at 15 with Tokyo Olympic silver medalist Carlo Paalam and Hergie Bacyadan recently claiming each tickets from the qualifying tournament in Thailand, while four para-athletes are formally qualified for the Paralympic Games namely Ernie Gawilan, Angel Otom, Allain Ganapin, and Agustina Bantiloc.

The participants are set to be identified in partnership with other sports institutions such as the Philippine Olympic Committee, the national sports associations, and members of the media.

Europe’s far right seeks policy influence to match seat gains

A EUROPEAN UNION’S flag flutters outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Oct. 15, 2020. — REUTERS

BRUSSELS — Europe’s nationalist parties capitalized in the European Parliament election on voter disquiet over spiraling prices, migration and the cost of the green transition and will now seek to translate their seat gains into influence on European Union (EU) policy.

Nationalist, populist and Euroskeptic parties were on course to win just under a quarter of seats in the EU assembly, according to the chamber’s own projections.

It reflects a growing trend in the West to turn from the mainstream and status quo towards radical alternatives such as former and possibly future US President Donald Trump.

In previous elections, radical right parties talked of leaving the European Union or its single currency, echoing the calls of British Brexiteers. Now these parties want to influence it from within.

Nationalist prime ministers are already in place in Hungary, Italy and Slovakia, right-wing parties are governing or supporting in Finland and Sweden, while Geert Wilders’ anti-immigrant Freedom Party appears poised to enter a ruling coalition in the Netherlands.

Armida van Rij, senior research fellow at Chatham House, said “cordon sanitaire” policies to exclude hard right parties are eroding.

“People know now it’s not just a lost vote,” she said, adding that populist parties’ extensive use of social media is also bringing in younger voters.

EU EXECUTIVE CHIEF VOTE
Gerolf Annemans, a lawmaker of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang party, said the new parliament should scrap a recently agreed EU migration pact, soften the Green Deal and find a more right-leaning alternative to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

The new parliament’s first test, to determine the next Commission president, could come as early as July. Ms. Von der Leyen will be in pole position for a second term given her center-right European People’s Party (EPP) is set to be the biggest group.

However, she may need support from some right-wing nationalists, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, to secure a parliamentary majority, giving Ms. Meloni and allies more leverage.

Luigi Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the center-right EPP has already cooled on attempts to fold broader environmental policies into the Green Deal package. Mr. Scazzieri said he could also envisage a right-wing push to increase external processing of migrants and a tougher passage of reforms required to allow EU enlargement, such as reducing the need for unanimity in decisions.

“I expect this to play out over time rather than have an immediate effect,” Mr. Scazzieri said. “They also have quite a powerful shaping effect on the broader political debate.”

Corina Stratulat, associate director of think tank the European Policy Centre (EPC), said a key determinant would be the degree to which the radical right could unite. They do not have a strong record.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has urged Italy’s Ms. Meloni to form a right-wing grand alliance, but Le Pen’s party and allies expelled Alternative for Germany only last month, while an alliance including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz would be a step too far for some of Ms. Meloni’s allies, such as Belgian’s N-VA.

An EPC study concluded that this lack of cohesion means the radical right would need to win more than 70% of European Parliament seats to completely control vote outcomes — a figure they almost certainly will not reach. — Reuters

China says US provoking arms race in moves into South China Sea 

NAVY.MIL

BEIJING — The US poses the largest security challenge in the South China Sea as its military deployment there is turning it into “the whirlpool of an arms race,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong said in remarks published on Sunday.

Recent maritime run-ins between China and the Philippines, a US treaty ally, have made the highly strategic South China Sea a potential flashpoint between Washington and Beijing.

“At present, the biggest security challenge in the South China Sea comes from outside the region,” Mr. Sun said in comments published by his ministry, after attending a high-level meeting on East Asian cooperation in Laos.

Mr. Sun said US-led forces were “promoting military deployment and actions in the South China Sea, inciting and intensifying maritime disputes and contradictions, and damaging the legitimate rights and interests of coastal countries.”

A move by the United States to deploy medium-range missile systems in the area “is dragging the region into the whirlpool of an arms race, placing the entire Asia Pacific region under the shadow of geopolitical conflicts,” Mr. Sun said.

China is committed to properly managing disputes with the parties in the South China Sea through dialogue, he added.

In April, the Philippines said during a meeting with US allies that it was determined to assert its sovereign rights in the South China Sea, accusing China of escalating “its harassment” of the Philippines.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion in annual ship commerce, and has deployed hundreds of coast guard vessels as far as 1,000 km off its mainland to police what it says is its jurisdiction.

The Philippines and China have sparred repeatedly this past year near disputed features that fall within Manila’s exclusive economic zone. China routinely accuses the Philippines of encroachment while Manila and its allies have condemned what they call aggression by Beijing.

The United States has said it stands with Manila. — Reuters

Malaysia shifts away from diesel subsidy; pump prices jump by around 50%

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

KUALA LUMPUR — Diesel fuel prices in much of Malaysia rose by roughly 50% on Monday as the government began shifting away from costly blanket subsidies to a targeted approach that mainly helps the needy.

Malaysia, which heavily subsidizes prices of fuel, cooking oil and rice among other basic items, has seen its subsidy bill rise to record levels in recent years amid surging commodity prices, straining government coffers.

Its diesel subsidy bill alone has risen 10-fold from 1.4 billion ringgit in 2019 to 14.3 billion ringgit in 2023.

The government said last month its plan to cut diesel subsidies this year is expected to save about 4 billion ringgit ($853.24 million) annually, with the savings expected to be re-directed to low-income groups.

The Finance Ministry said in a statement on Sunday it will begin setting diesel fuel prices to align them with market prices.

The retail price of diesel fuel will rise to 3.35 ringgit ($0.71) per liter starting at midnight at all petrol stations across Peninsular Malaysia, the ministry said.

It will remain at 2.15 ringgit per liter in Malaysian states and territories on Borneo, as well as for eligible logistics vehicles under the government’s subsidized diesel control system.

Lower diesel prices have also been set for fishermen and land public transport vehicles such as school buses and ambulances, the ministry said.

The government will provide cash assistance to eligible Malaysian individuals owning diesel vehicles, as well as small-scale farmers and commodity smallholders to mitigate the potential impact on their incomes, the ministry said.

Despite the subsidy cuts, diesel prices in Malaysia will remain among the lowest in Southeast Asia, with the fuel retailing at the equivalent of 8.79 ringgit per liter in Singapore, 4.43 ringgit in Indonesia, and 4.24 ringgit in Thailand, the ministry said. — Reuters

UK job market on its way back after downturn, recruiters say

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain, May 11, 2023. — REUTERS

LONDON — A fall in permanent hiring by employers in Britain was its least severe in more than a year in May and the recruitment market appears to be poised for a recovery, an industry survey showed on Monday.

In a report that will be studied by the Bank of England (BoE) as it weighs up when to start cutting interest rates, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) said permanent hiring fell by the smallest amount in 14 months.

Billings for temporary staff dropped by the least since January.

“The jobs market looks like it’s on its way back, with clear improvements over last month on most key measures,” REC Chief Executive Neil Carberry said.

The REC survey has generally painted a weaker picture of the labor market than broader official data, which showed annual wage growth of 6% in the first quarter of 2024.

Britain’s July 4 national election and the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the BoE later this year were likely to remove the hesitancy of employers about hiring, Mr. Carberry said.

“These numbers suggest that caution may be starting to abate,” he said.

REC said pay rates for permanent staff rose at a pace that was only slightly slower than April’s four-month high. Vacancies fell at the slowest pace in a seven-month downturn.

In a possible relief for the BoE, the availability of staff grew by the most since December 2020, boosted by a mix of redundancies, higher unemployment and the reduction in demand for staff.

The BoE is watching the labor market closely as it assesses when inflation pressure in the economy has abated sufficiently for it to cut borrowing costs for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic more than four years ago. — Reuters

Indonesia ramps up fight against tuberculosis amid concerns on economic impact

INDONESIAN national flags fly at a business district in Jakarta, Indonesia, Feb. 5, 2021. — REUTERS

JAKARTA — Indonesia plans to run clinical trials of several vaccines to fight surging cases of tuberculosis (TB) this year, with concerns the disease might affect economic growth, ministers said on Monday.

The Southeast Asian country has seen TB cases spike during the past few years, with the health ministry estimating there were over 1 million cases in 2023, compared to around 820,000 in 2020.

In 2022, deaths from TB in Indonesia reached around 134,000, the second highest in the world after India.

Three-quarters of the patients were in the productive age group and 45% of all patients did not work, raising concerns that the spread of the disease is hurting economic activity, human development minister Muhadjir Effendy told a government meeting with provincial leaders. The minister did not provide an estimate of the impact on growth.

Health minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said Indonesia plans to conduct a trial of TB vaccine developed by global pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline in July, involving 2,500 people. The vaccine development is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

A clinical trial for a vaccine made by China’s CanSino Biologics is also expected this year, Budi said.

“We hope to be one of the first countries to do tuberculosis vaccination,” Mr. Budi told the same meeting.

“We’re also in the stage to conduct a clinical trial for an mRNA vaccine that is being developed by BioNTech, that had founded COVID vaccine for Pfizer,” Mr. Budi said.

In the same meeting, home affairs minister Tito Karnavian ordered provincial leaders to set up task forces to detect TB infections.

Indonesia aims to lower its mortality rate from TB by 80% to only six deaths per 100,000 lives by 2030, Mr. Budi said. — Reuters

Japan’s Q1 GDP fell less than first reported on revised capex

PEOPLE walk on Shibuya crossing in Tokyo, Japan on April 23, 2021, in this photo taken by Kyodo. — KYODO/VIA REUTERS

 – Japan’s economy contracted less than initially reported in January-March on upward revisions to capital spending and inventory data, lending modest support to the central bank’s plans to raise interest rates again this year.

Analysts expect the Japanese economy to have bottomed out in the first three months of the year, although a stubbornly weak yen and disruptions at major automaker plants continue to cloud the outlook for the current quarter.

Still, “the revised GDP results made it easier for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to feel encouraged about future rate hikes as it can assess capital investment is picking up even by a little bit,” said Kohei Okazaki, senior economist at Nomura Securities.

Japan’s GDP shrank a revised 1.8% annualized in the first quarter from the previous three months, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday, a smaller decline that economists’ median forecast for a 1.9% contraction and a 2.0% decline in the preliminary estimate.

The revised figure translates into a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.5% in price-adjusted terms, unchanged from the initial reading issued last month.

 

RATE HIKES

The revised GDP data comes on speculation the BOJ may discuss cuts in its Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases at its policy review this week as part of efforts to unwind monetary stimulus to curb yen weakening.

Investors are looking for clues on the timing of further rate hikes by the central bank, which raised rates in March for the first time since 2007 in a landmark shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy.

“We can say capital spending picked up in the latter half of the fiscal year-end in March 2024…current capex conditions are a relief but we must be cautious about the outlook,” Okazaki said.

“We can also maintain the view that consumption is on track for recovery due to hefty pay raise agreed at annual labor talks and income tax cuts that kicked in from June.”

Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the Japanese economy, fell 0.7% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate as rising living costs squeezed household finances. It was a fourth straight quarter of decline.

External demand, or exports minus imports, shaved 0.4 of a percentage point off overall GDP, while domestic demand knocked off 0.1 point, the data showed. – Reuters

South Korea, US to hold new round of nuclear planning talks in Seoul

 – South Korea and the United States were set to hold talks on Monday in Seoul on better coordinating an allied nuclear response during a war with North Korea, amid anxiety over Pyongyang’s growing arsenal, Seoul officials said.

The third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) is designed to follow up on last year’s summit, during which the United States promised to give South Korea more insight into its nuclear planning for a conflict with the North.

The talks came as North Korea races ahead to advance its nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, which triggered questions in South Korea about its reliance on “extended deterrence” – in essence the American nuclear umbrella.

Some politicians, including some senior members of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, called for Seoul to develop its own nuclear weapons, a step Washington opposes.

In late May, North Korea’s attempt to launch a military reconnaissance satellite failed after a newly developed rocket engine exploded in flight. Seoul and Washington condemned the launch as a violation of U.N. Security Council sanctions banning Pyongyang’s use of ballistic technology.

The latest talks will be led by Cho Chang-rae, South Korea’s deputy defense minister for policy, and Vipin Narang, acting U.S. assistant secretary of defense for space policy.

After their second meeting in December, both sides warned that any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies will be met with a “swift, overwhelming and decisive response” and result in the end of Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Last week, South Korea’s Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met on the sidelines of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore, during which they reaffirmed the goal of North Korea’s complete denuclearization and continued efforts to boost US extended deterrence. – Reuters

Macron calls shock French elections after far-right rout

FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON — REUTERS

 – French President Emmanuel Macron rolled the dice on his political future on Sunday, calling snap legislative elections for later this month after he was trounced in the European Union vote by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party.

Mr. Macron’s shock decision set off a political earthquake in France, offering the far-right a shot at real political power after years on the sidelines and threatening to neuter his presidency three years before it ends.

If Ms. Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party wins a parliamentary majority, Macron would be left with little sway over domestic affairs.

Mr. Macron said the EU result was grim for his government, and one he could not ignore. In an address to the nation, less than two months before Paris hosts the Olympics, he said lower house elections would be called for June 30, with a second-round vote on July 7.

“This is an essential time for clarification,” Mr. Macron said. “I have heard your message, your concerns and I will not leave them unanswered … France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.”

After Mr. Macron’s announcement, a few hundred anti-far-right protesters gathered at Paris’ Place de la Republique, waving flags for green and leftist groups and chanting against the RN.

Led by telegenic 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the RN won about 32% of the vote in Sunday’s vote, more than double the Macron ticket’s 15%, according to exit polls. The Socialists came within a whisker of Macron, with 14%.

Ms. Le Pen, widely seen as the frontrunner for the 2027 election in which Mr. Macron is unable to stand, welcomed his decision.

“We are ready to take over power if the French give us their trust in the upcoming national elections,” she said at a rally.

Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party currently has 169 lower house lawmakers, out of a total of 577. The RN has 88.

If the RN wins a majority, Macron would still direct defense and foreign policy, but would lose the power to set the domestic agenda, from economic policy to security.

“Emmanuel Macron is a poker player, we’ve seen that tonight,” said Green Party lawmaker Sandrine Rousseau.

 

UNCOMFORTABLE ‘COHABITATION’

Teneo, a consultancy, said “Mr. Macron has called an election he might lose.”

It said his ultimate “goal might be to bring an RN victory forward in time to expose the party’s lack of experience in government and make them confront politically painful decisions ahead of the 2027 presidential election.”

Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund official who is now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said Macron had made the best of a weak hand.

“Either the incoherence of the RN program becomes clear during the campaign and it loses the election. Or the RN wins, gets to govern and quickly makes a mess of it,” he wrote on X.

Mr. Macron’s gambit has echoes of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s move to call a snap national election last year after the far right thrashed his party in local government polls.

Mr. Sanchez managed to retain power but only after months of wrangling with regional parties and a controversial deal to offer an amnesty to Catalan separatists.

France has known so-called “cohabitation” periods before, when the president is from a different political party than the parliamentary majority. In such cases, the majority party’s prime minister becomes France’s top domestic decision-maker.

In the last such period, from 1997-2002, President Jacques Chirac played second fiddle to Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.

The euro slipped to its lowest level in around a month in early trading in Asia, reflecting the uncertainty.

Macron’s decision underlined what was a grim night for centrist parties across Europe, with Eurosceptic nationalists making the biggest gains in the European Parliament vote.

 

SUCCESSION BATTLE HEATS UP

Ms. Le Pen’s strong electoral showing, notching a 10-point increase on her 2019 EU result, is likely to lure conservative rebels to the RN, a party with a clear sense of momentum.

On Sunday night, Ms. Le Pen’s niece Marion Marechal, a political ally of Eric Zemmour and his far-right Reconquete party, said she was prepared to meet with her aunt to explore a pact.

“A right-wing coalition to me seems more necessary than ever,” Ms. Marechal said.

Ms. Le Pen’s ascent is also likely to turbocharge the centrist succession battle to replace Mr. Macron.

Several big names – including Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, the current one, Gabriel Attal, and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire – are all eager to take the top job, political sources say.

“We’ll have to do some soul-searching and explain to the French why we haven’t been able to listen to them enough,” Darmanin said in comments prior to Macon’s announcement.

Sunday’s results also saw the resurgence of the French centre-left, with Socialist candidate Raphael Glucksmann, a pro-Ukraine moderate, who won some 14%. His strong showing will embolden the Socialists, who had faced electoral oblivion after Mr. Macron’s 2017 election win. – Reuters

Microsoft unveils all-digital Xbox consoles, ‘Doom’ title at Games Showcase

Source: https://www.xbox.com/en-US/consoles

Microsoft kicked off its annual Xbox Games Showcase on Sunday, unveiling a new all-digital version of its Xbox Series X and S consoles as well as trailers for more than a dozen games including the next installment of “Call of Duty.”

The Games Showcase comes at a crucial time for Xbox and Microsoft as the gaming industry faces a downturn and publishers grapple with softer sales, layoffs and studio shutdowns.

Microsoft showed off three gaming consoles including a disc-less version of the Xbox Series X and S consoles, and a special edition of the Series X with 2 terabytes of storage.

The hardware refresh could help Xbox boost sales of its consoles which compete with Sony’s 6758.T PlayStation 5.

Among the games on display was “Doom: The Dark Ages”, the latest installment in the long-running “Doom” franchise, as well as a sneak peak at the newest “Gears of War” title, ending a five-year wait for one of Xbox’s most popular properties.

A sizable number of games including the new “Doom” and “Call of Duty” will be available on Xbox Game Pass on the day of launch, indicating that Microsoft is making big bets on the subscription service as it tries to woo consumers grappling with a relatively softer economy.

The Games Showcase was followed by a special feature from Activision Blizzard’s studios that highlighted features, characters and gameplay of the new “Call of Duty: Black Ops 6”, which is slated for a release in October.

Developers Treyarch and Raven software showed clips from the campaign of the game that takes place in the early 1990s, touting features such as a new movement system allowing players to sprint in all directions, and a glimpse at the fan-favorite “Zombies” mode. – Reuters

As China-Philippines spat worsens, US steps up support: Peter Apps

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter launches during flight operations aboard the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea, July 17, 2020. — US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS CODIE L. SOULE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

by Peter Apps, Reuters Columnist

 – As a joint US-Philippines exercise drew to a close last month, US troops at Basco airport in the northern island province of Batanes were testing a cutting-edge high-altitude drone to conduct reconnaissance and transfer information to the Filipino military.

Exercise “Balikatan”, the main annual US-Philippines joint military drill has been held 39 times since 1991. This year’s iteration – from April 22 to May 10 – included more than 16,000 personnel from the U.S., Philippines, Australia and France.

Traditionally held in the center of the Philippines, this year’s exercise also took in small northern islands in the Luzon Strait – including Batanes province, the area of the Philippines closest to Taiwan some 120 miles (200 km) away.

Giving the US military access to those remote locations would be critical to any conflict over Taiwan, which US officials say Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready for by 2027, sparking a host of US and allied military preparation across the Asia Pacific region.

The first months of this year have also seen an ongoing escalation in tensions between the Philippines and Beijing.

China’s coast guard has used increasing levels of non-lethal force – including water cannon and collisions – against Filipino fishing boats as well as ships reinforcing a Filipino military detachment on the landing craft “Sierra Madre” that is purposely grounded on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

On June 4, Philippines officials said Marines on the landing craft drew their weapons as a “precautionary” measure in self-defense as rigid inflatables of the Chinese coast guard approached the “Sierra Madre” and seized packages of supplies that had just been dropped by Filipino forces by air to reinforce the tiny garrison.

At the major annual Shangri-La national security meeting in Singapore in late May organized by London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, Philippines President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos was asked how Manila might respond to the death of a Filipino sailor in such an incident.

The Philippines and United States have a mutual defense treaty, and some analysts increasingly worry that the mounting face-off over several disputed maritime boundaries might yet trigger an unintended war.

The Filipino leader, son of ousted late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, denounced what he called the “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions (by China that) continue to violate our sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction”.

“If a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act, that is, I think, very very close to what we define as an act of war, and therefore we will respond accordingly,” Marcos told an audience that included US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun. “And our treaty partners, I believe, also hold that same standard.”

Admiral Dong delivered his own hawkish speech at Shangri-La, just days after some of the most aggressive Chinese military posturing so far around Taiwan in maneuvers US officials said appeared to be a rehearsal for invasion and blockade.

 

RISING RHETORIC

Mr. Dong warned that “Taiwan separatists” would be “nailed to the pillar of shame in history” and that any countries interfering with “reunification” of Taiwan with China would face “self-destruction”.

He said Beijing had exercised restraint in the face of “infringements and provocations” carried out by a certain country he did not name, but clearly implied to be the Philippines.

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to take over the island. Taiwan strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide their future.

The Shangri-La meeting saw the first direct face-to-face meeting between Chinese and US defense chiefs since 2022, designed to help manage the risk of accidental conflict. But neither side appeared to be backing down.

US officials said Austin specifically raised the issue of Chinese “provocations” in the 75-minute session, while Austin’s public remarks reasserted US commitment to the region.

“Let me be clear: the United States can be secure only if Asia is secure,” Mr. Austin said. “That’s why the United States has long maintained our presence in the region.”

Most analysts believe there are two ways a conflict might start in Southeast Asia. The first would be an accidental escalation of an incident in the South China Sea such as around Second Thomas Shoal, and the second would be a deliberate Chinese act – most likely an invasion of Taiwan – that then sparks a much wider conflict.

Building up the US and Filipino military presence in the northern Philippines is regarded as crucial to deterring such outcomes, or indeed fighting such a conflict if deterrence fails.

US-Filipino military links declined after the fall of the first Marcos from power in 1986, with US forces evicted entirely in the 1990s. But they have ratcheted up substantially once again since his son was elected president in 2022, driven by shared perceptions of a rapidly rising threat from China.

The 1988 constitution bans the permanent stationing of foreign forces on Filipino soil. But since Marcos’ election, US forces have increased what they described as a “temporary, rotational presence” of a variety of units within the country.

Last year, the US and Philippines announced joint naval patrols along the northern Filipino coast, where the Manila government is roughly doubling the number of its forces as part of a broader military expansion.

 

UNAMBIGUOUS MESSAGING

Over the last year, analysts and US officials have begun to talk of the Philippines, Japan, Australia and United States as the “Squad”, conducting informal joint meetings and policy coordination as the four nations most committed to cooperating in the event of a regional war with China.

That four-way relationship, insiders say, is now notably tighter than that between the Australia-Japan-U.S.-India grouping known as the “Quad”, which also holds joint military drills and works together on humanitarian responses.

India, however, continues to pursue a more independent foreign policy – including much closer relations with Russia – in comparison with the Philippines, which now openly expects to find itself fighting alongside the United States in any war.

The US now has access to nine bases across the Philippines, spending more than $100 million on them by the end of 2023.

This has included rebuilding runways and command and control systems at Basa Air Base, the largest Filipino air force installation now capable of housing most types of US aircraft in a crisis.

According to the US Marines, several Reaper drones are also rotating through the Philippines, although further details of that have been kept largely under wraps.

Much more widely publicized, however, was the “SINKEX” element of the most recent drills, in which Filipino and US forces used missiles to sink a Chinese-built merchant ship.

Footage of that was then heavily shared by Filipino social media channels in what appeared a not-so-subtle message to Beijing.

According to US officials, future iterations of joint military drills are likely to be even larger – and considerably more high-tech. That is likely to include testing drone swarms as well as deploying heavy weapons.

This year’s exercise saw the deployment of the US Army’s Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, a land-based variant of the naval Tomahawk missile capable of hitting land targets in either China or Taiwan from the northern Philippines.

“Every Balikatan is increasingly more complex,” said Philippines exercise director Major General Marvin Licudine. “This year has produced several new collaborations considering dynamic challenges across all domains.” – Reuters