By Melissa Luz T. Lopez
Senior Reporter
THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept benchmark borrowing rates steady on Thursday despite expectations that inflation will surge to breach four percent in the months ahead, although authorities discounted its impact as “temporary.”
The Monetary Board kept policy settings steady in its first of eight planned reviews for 2018.
Rates were kept at 3.5% for the overnight lending rate, 3.0% for the overnight reverse repurchase rate and 2.5% for the overnight deposit rate.
“The Monetary Board’s decision is based on its assessment that while latest baseline forecasts show higher inflation outturns for 2018, the inflation path is expected to moderate and settle within the inflation target range… in 2019,” BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. said in a statement as read by Managing Director Francisco G. Dakila, Jr.
“[T]he Monetary Board saw that inflation expectations continue to be anchored within the inflation target band over the policy horizon. The BSP is watchful against any signs of second-round effects and inflation becoming broader-based.”
The central bank last hiked policy rates in September 2014, although procedural cuts were introduced in June 2016 for the shift to an interest rate corridor scheme designed to better influence market rates and mop up unwanted liquidity.
Inflation clocked four percent in January, which came as a surprise against a 3.5% consensus estimate among economists asked in a BusinessWorld poll. The government attributed the price spikes to the impact of Republic Act No. 10963, or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) law that took effect on Jan. 1.
TRAIN imposed an additional P2.50 excise tax per liter of diesel and P3/liter for kerosene, which came at a time of three-year highs for world crude prices. The new law also either hiked or introduced new taxes on cars, coal, sugar-sweetened drinks and a host of other items that likely drove up prices of other widely used goods and services.
January’s inflatio pace touched the ceiling of the central bank’s 2-4% target band for the entire year, and is the fastest pace recorded since October 2014.
Several analysts have said that inflation will likely trend higher over the coming months as the second-round impacts of TRAIN – such as increases in transport fares and daily minimum wages – creep in.
The central bank also kept reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for big banks steady at 20%. Mr. Dakila said cutting the reserve level remains a “continuing issue” for the Monetary Board, but noted that the focus is now on the policy rate.
Last week, the central bank chief said adjustments to the RRR should not be taken as a change in monetary policy stance, as they merely form part of the government’s financial market reform strategy.
FASTER INFLATION
The BSP raised its inflation forecast, with the monetary authority now expecting price increases to overshoot its 2-4% target for 2018.
Mr. Dakila said the central bank now sees full-year inflation at 4.3%, jumping from the 3.4% expected back in December.
“Now that the TRAIN law has been passed, the baseline assessment now includes impact of tax reform program,” Mr. Dakila said during the press briefing, noting that rising global crude oil prices and the faster-than-expected January inflation rate prompted the BSP to adjust its estimates.
“It should be emphasized that although the inflation number for 2018 has been adjusted upwards, it is a change in inflation due to supply-side factors essentially of a transitory nature,” Mr. Dakila added.
“The forecast shows that by March of next year, we should be back to the inflation target band.”
BSP Deputy Governor Maria Almasara Cyd N. Tuaño-Amador also pointed out that drivers of inflation remain “short-lived” and are expected to “recede” over the year ahead.
Inflation is expected to return within target by 2019 to 3.5%, although still higher than 3.2% previously estimated.
‘SLIGHTLY HAWKISH’
One economist said that the BSP’s statement has turned hawkish as it acknowledged the need to tighten rates due to rising inflation.
“We can call it slightly hawkish. It is the part that possible tweaks in the future will now come from external sources like the mention of global oil prices. But, I think, it is clear that the surge in inflation is simply what it is: a surge,” Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at the Union Bank of the Philippines, said when sought for comment.
“Slightly hawkish also because BSP still expects inflation to come back to the official 2-4% inflation target.”
Mr. Asuncion added that he expects one to two rate increases this 2018, possibly by “midyear.”
“If there are signs that inflation is spreading out among all the commodities in the economy, then that will be a factor that will be taken into account in deciding the monetary policy stance. But all adjustments on taxes are essentially supply-side factors,” Mr. Dakila said.
However, Gareth Leather of Capital Economics said he expects the BSP to keep policy moves on hold throughout 2018 as he projects inflation to “drop back” by the start of 2019.
The BSP will hold its next rate-setting meeting on March 22.