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LANDBANK books higher profit

LAND BANK of the Philippines (LANDBANK) saw its bottom line rise in 2018, supported by the robust growth in its lending business.
The state-owned LANDBANK booked a P15.5-billion net income in 2018, up 10% from the P14.1 billion logged a year ago.
LANDBANK President and Chief Executive Officer Alex V. Buenaventura attributed the lender’s “exceptional” performance last year to the “significant” growth in its lending book.
“We achieved exceptional performance in 2018 with our net loan portfolio expanding significantly by 37% or more than P220 billion to reach P840 billion,” Mr. Buenaventura said in a statement over the weekend.
He added that the lender saw improved net income last year as it continued to expand support to its priority sectors, which include agriculture, cooperatives, agri-businesses, small and medium enterprises as well as local government units.
LANDBANK also grew its deposit base to P1.66 trillion as of end-2018, up 17% from the P1.42 trillion tallied in a comparative year-ago period, as deposits from the private and government sectors increased.
On the other hand, the lender’s capital also increased by 26% to P131.62 billion from the P104.6 billion booked in 2017.
Despite logging higher net earnings in 2018, LANDBANK incurred a “significant increase” in manpower costs following the implementation of the Salary Standardization Law, which affected the lender’s income.
LANDBANK is one of the lenders — alongside Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Bank of the Philippine Islands as well as BDO Unibank, Inc. — that are exposed to embattled South Korean shipbuilder Hanjin Heavy Industries and Construction Philippines, which filed for corporate rehabilitation last Jan. 8. This left some $412 million in outstanding loans from the banks in limbo.
However, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas downplayed the effect of Hanjin’s default on the banking industry, saying the lenders’ exposure is “negligible.”
The abovementioned banks are said to be working to take control of Hanjin’s property in Zambales, with assets estimated at $1.6 billion. — K.A.N. Vidal

Foreign investors’ appetite for Jollibee remains strong

By Christine Joyce S. Castañeda
Senior Researcher
FOREIGNERS loaded up on Jollibee Foods Corp. shares, making it one of the most actively traded stocks in the local bourse last week.
Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed the homegrown food giant trading P1.521 billion worth of 4.78 million shares from Jan. 7-11.
Shares closed at P316.60 apiece on Friday, up P2.60 or 0.8% from the previous day. On a week-on-week basis, its share price was up by 2.5% from its closing price of P309 on Jan. 4.
“It can be attributed to the influx of net foreign buying into the stock which amounted to P212.167 million [as of Thursday] after establishing a new all-time high at P324.20 [per share],” said Unicapital Securities, Inc. (Unicap) certified securities representative Cristopher Adrian T. San Pedro.
For his part, Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Associate Piper Chaucer E. Tan noted that net foreign buying transactions for Jollibee “has been heavy since the start of 2019.”
“Investors also [priced] in the recent acquisition of Smashburger and steady and above expectation earnings…,” Mr. Tan added.
Stock market data showed net buying on Jollibee amounted to P223.33 million from Jan. 7 to Jan. 11.
In a disclosure dated Dec. 14, Jollibee said that it has taken full ownership of American burger chain Smashburger after its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bee Good!, Inc. purchased Smashburger Master LLC’s 15% stake in SJBF LLC.
On the other hand, the company’s net income attributable to the equity holders of the parent company rose 25.9% to P2.035 billion in the third quarter, its disclosure to the local bourse showed. For the first nine months, Jollibee saw its net income grow by 19.2% to P6.086 billion.
“We expect [Jollibee] to net P8 billion in 2018 and P8.9 billion in 2019 to be spurred by the upcoming mid-term elections in May 2019 supported by declining global oil prices and tamed inflation rate,” Unicapital’s Mr. San Pedro said.
For his part, Philstocks’ Mr. Tan expects the company’s full-year net income to reach P8.08 billion and P9.04 billion in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
Mr. Tan noted Jollibee’s expansion in different parts of the world as its “main driver for earnings.”
In a Jan. 9 disclosure, DoubleDragon Properties Corp. said its industrial leasing unit, CentralHub Industrial Centers, Inc., has formed a strategic partnership with Cargill Joy Poultry Meats Production, Inc. (C-Joy) — a joint venture of US-based Cargill and Jollibee — for the expansion of its industrial leasing facilities.
Asked about the effect of this development on the stock’s performance last week, Mr. San Pedro said: “The investors sold on the news because it already made a run from P292.00 to P324.20 pesos [last] week.”
Philstocks’ Mr. Tan was also of the same opinion: “We think also that this is not as significant news in relation to the recent share price movement of [Jollibee].”
“[T]here may be some upside, but I look more on the acquisition of Smashburger and continuous expansion most especially outside the Philippines and maintaining high margins despite higher inflation in 2018.”
Unicapital’s Mr. San Pedro sees the stock trading between P300 support and P324.20 resistance in the short term.
For Philstocks’ Mr. Tan: “Support may range from P290.80-P300.10 and resistance of P320.00-P324.00.”

Ivory Coast cocoa bean quality hit by dry weather, financing woes

ABIDJAN/NEW YORK — Farmers in top cocoa grower Ivory Coast say the current crop is worsening, with beans starting to rot, as lack of financing prevents them from properly fermenting and drying beans already stressed by bad weather.
Front-month New York cocoa futures traded on ICE have risen nearly 15 percent since the start of December, mainly on worries over consistently dry weather in Ivory Coast, traders said. The conditions were brought on by seasonal Harmattan winds that sweep in sand from the Sahara, which can ravage cocoa pods and sap soil moisture, leading to smaller beans. [SOF/L]
Financing of cocoa bean purchases and exports is vital to Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, with an annual yield of about 2 million tonnes, or about one-third of the world’s cocoa. Farmers say that banks which arrange financing for farmers and middlemen known as pisteurs, who purchase beans from farmers to sell to exporters, have pulled back on funding in the wake of the bankruptcy of the country’s largest exporter.
That has left farmers unable to care for their plantations or combat the degradation of their beans.
“I have to put the fertilizer once a year and spray the field three to four times a year each quarter. But I can not do it because I have no money,” said Etienne Koidja, a farmer in San Pedro, Ivory Coast. “Pisteurs and exporters who were helping us also have no money because the banks did not finance.”
Banks have reduced financing for smaller exporters in the wake of the collapse of SAF-Cacao in July. Ivorian banks have struggled to get paid for loans to exporters during the country’s 2016/17 season, which was also marred by crisis.
With local exporters not able to send products abroad, ports are letting shipments of the commodity sit and therefore deteriorate further.
“Cocoa arriving at the ports and not being shipped out could end up becoming damaged because storage facilities in Ivory Coast are not that ideal for cocoa,” a U.S. commodities broker said.
The director of an international export company in Abidjan, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said the company rejected beans in December and January because the quality did not meet expectations.
“The banks stopped financing exporters who could not finance middlemen and buyers who also could not help farmers. It is a chain and when a link is broken, the whole chain is broken,” the director said.
Scarce rainfall and dry winds have even raised concerns about the forthcoming April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said.
Since the end of December, spot cocoa prices in New York and London have steadied as investors await results from global cocoa grind figures, due by the end of January.
“We are continuously hearing the cocoa is not up to the high standards. Because of that, the market is repricing higher, recognizing less than ideal quality,” said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial in Boca Raton, Florida.
Prices could rise if global cocoa grind figures, a measure of demand, exceed market expectations, a U.S. trader said.
Changing weather patterns could help. Chances of an El Niño weather pattern remain high, which would bring more intense heat and dryness to Ivory Coast cocoa growing regions, a bullish signal, said Peter Mooses, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
“Hot weather, dry weather and more winds are all bullish for prices and negative for production,” Mooses said. — Reuters

The regular person’s guide to bullet journaling

By Rebecca Greenfield
Bloomberg
THE BULLET JOURNAL — the all-in-one calendar, to-do list, and diary — has become the DIY life organizer de rigueur. The YouTube video How to Bullet Journal has almost 10 million views. Stationary company Leuchtturm1917, which produces the go-to dot-grid journal, told Bloomberg its sales have doubled in the past year. People swear by the Bullet Journal (BuJo) as the ultimate productivity tool.
“It allows me to combine my calendar, lists, and seemingly endless notes in an organized fashion,” said Jenny Kaplan, a BuJo devotee who swears the journal has been a vital tool in starting her own business, Wonder Media Network.
The journals are also pretty.
But trying to get into the Bullet Journal fad can be intimidating. The hashtag #BuJo on Instagram surfaces over 2 million dreamy looking hand-drawn calendars and to-do lists — a mosaic of high-level artistry that, while awe-inspiring, will certainly intimidate anyone without an advanced degree in crafting. On top of the high aesthetic bar, the official method, created by Ryder Carroll, involves monthly spread-making sessions and a lot of jargon.
Does that mean Bullet Journals are only for hyper-organized people with A-level doodling skills? This week on the new Bloomberg podcast, Works for Me, I — a regular person with bad handwriting, haphazard to-do lists, and zero artistic ability — talk about how I spent more than two months trying it out. On the show, I tackle every step of the Bullet Journal process, from making my first spread to learning about the wonderful world of habit trackers. You’ll hear about my surprisingly emotional ups and downs, including my disproportionate reaction to an olive oil spill.
Here’s what I learned.
JUST DO IT
“It’s complicated to explain; it’s not that complicated to do,” Rachel Wilkerson Miller, the author of Dot Journaling — A Practical Guide, told me. She’s right. Looking at YouTube tutorials and how-to guides only makes bullet journaling feel more inaccessible. The best way to get into it is to just buy a journal and start filling it.
For those not yet indoctrinated, a Bullet Journal is an ordinary paper journal that has a dot-grid on its pages instead of lines, which makes it easy to draw neat looking calendars, to-do lists, and tables for keeping track of things, such as how often you do yoga or eat dairy. Users can customize their journals to include whatever might help them organize their lives. Traditionally, the BuJo combines to-do lists, calendars, and a diary. But devotees go wild on aesthetics, making their spreads look like dreamy-looking works of art.
Beginners, Wilkerson Miller told me, should keep it simple. She suggested I make one month’s worth of spreads and draw everything in pencil before going over it in pen. She also told me to stick to one or two colors at first to avoid getting overwhelmed by crafts.
I started out by making a monthly calendar, a basic daily habit tracker, daily to-do lists, a “wins” page to document my accomplishments, and a place to journal. Drawing my no-frills spreads for the month took about an hour and a half. It turns out, even I can use a ruler to concoct tidy looking calendars and tables.
CHANGE IS GOOD
A little over a month into my experiment, I realized that my BuJo use was uneven. I loved having daily to-do lists — an admittedly amateur work-hack — but a useful one nonetheless. The physical monthly calendar, however, I didn’t really need, because I use Google Calendar regularly.
I also found the habit tracker to be a useless exercise in data collection. Discovering how often I clean my apartment and call my dad in a given month was neither surprising nor life-changing. I didn’t end up doing anything with that data.
The beauty of the Bullet Journal is its flexibility. “If something isn’t working for you, you can fix it without scrapping the whole thing,” Wilkerson Miller says. “If a weekly spread isn’t working, just start something new.”
So that’s what I did. The next month, I ditched the calendars and leveled-up my habit tracker to collect data that I might find useful. Feeling a little more confident in my crafting skills, I found a daily drink tracker on a Reddit thread, which would allow me to log my spending and consumption habits. In the spirit of bullet journaling, I even drew a little martini glass at the top of the page.
I ended up liking and using the tracker; it taught me something new about myself. A little voice in the back of my head constantly worries about how much I’m spending and drinking. The tracker gave me data on the reality of the situation. Armed with that knowledge, I can feel a little bit less stressed about how much I spend on a recreational habit.
BE YOUR (UNARTISTIC) SELF
One of the appeals of bullet journaling is aesthetic. It looks nice, which results in a sense of accomplishment. But using the journal won’t turn you into something you’re not. My journal is ugly, despite my sad attempts to make it colorful.
And even the pros, such as Wilkerson Miller, admit that they mess up. “There are mistakes in my journal,” she says. “This system really forced me to just roll with it. Just go on to the next page — it’s totally fine.”
Ugly journals aren’t any less useful. Writing things down helps us clear space in our head, which helps us do our jobs and live our lives.
“Your head is for having ideas, not for holding them,” David Allen, the author of Getting Things Done, explains. “If your head is still wrapped around food you should’ve bought this morning, or the last meeting you were in, you’re trying to use your head as your office,” he says. “And your head is an absolutely crappy office.”

Peso to rise further on dovish Fed

THE PESO may strengthen further this week as the dollar will likely remain weak due to recent dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve.
The local currency sustained its rally on Friday, closing the week at P52.14 per dollar amid risk-on sentiment among market players in favor of emerging market currencies.
Traders interviewed before the weekend said a stronger peso can still be expected this week, buoyed by sustained broad dollar weakness.
“[We’re expecting] stronger peso mainly because dollar has been weakening across,” a trader said.
Another trader said the peso will “track the general direction of the dollar” as investors continue to price in dovish comments from the US central bank.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said on Thursday that the monetary authority can afford to “be patient” on its path towards higher interest rates, adding that policy makers are not looking at a “pre-set path” for key rates for this year.
“The US dollar recently declined versus major global and emerging market currencies amid consistent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Fed minutes, as well as from other Fed officials, all signalling a possible pause on Fed rate hikes,” Michael L. Ricafort, economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said in a text message on Sunday.
He added that the continued partial shutdown of the US government since Dec. 21 “also led to weaker US dollar versus major global currencies.”
“The peso could still strengthen amid continued net foreign portfolio/hot money inflows into the country since the start of the year,” Mr. Ricafort noted.
Another trader said the US inflation data “will dictate” the performance of the peso for the first few days of the week. Reuters reported that US consumer prices declined for the first time in nine months in December as gasoline prices plunged amid pressures from steady increases in rental housing and healthcare costs.
For this week, Mr. Ricafort expects the peso to trade between P51.90 and P52.20, while the first trader gave a P52-P52.40 range. The second trader, on the other hand, projected a P52-P52.30 band. — Karl Angelo N. Vidal

Shares to move sideways after last week’s rally

By Arra B. Francia
Reporter
STOCKS MAY move sideways in the week ahead as a breather is expected to support the main index’s rally in the coming days.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped 1.01% or 81.14 points to close at 7,904.09 on Friday, albeit rallying for most of the week to record a 1.84% weekly increase or 142.98 points. The services and holding firms counter pushed the market as they gained 4% and 3.6% for the week, respectively.
Foreign investors figured heavily in the market, registering a net buying figure of P4.47 billion for the week. Market breadth was also positive, with 104 gainers versus 95 decliners.
“The market can go either way [this] week, we may see a pullback as markets around the world performed extremely well [last] week and some profit taking may take place,” Eagle Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said in a weekly market report.
“A pullback scenario is more favorable for our market right now as we don’t want to see it go “too far, too fast” and it also gives more investors the chance to get in at lower prices.”
Despite expectations of profit taking, Mr. Mangun noted the market is not showing any signs of slowing down, especially now that the PSEi is approaching the 8,000 mark.
“However, if we continue to see this pick up in foreign fund inflows, then we might just see the main index touch 8,000 and perhaps even break through it with conviction… Whichever way it goes [this] week, we are still extremely bullish on this market,” Mr. Mangun explained.
For online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com, a breather will help support the main index’s ascent.
“In the coming weeks, however, it would be prudent to visit on fundamentals, to check on the strength of listed companies’ business models,” the online brokerage said in a weekly market note.
The chief concern among investors for the moment is the P21.6-billion default of Korean shipping giant Hanjin Industrials, which involves five of the country’s largest banks namely Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Bank of the Philippine Islands, BDO Unibank, Inc., and Land Bank of the Philippines.
2TradeAsia.com, however, remains positive on the banking sector as their loan exposure is small compared to their market caps.
“Aside from being a collateralized facility, our correspondence with some of related names assured of readied provisioning & the size of their exposure is relatively small vis-à-vis capitalization… However, the Hanjin issue would likely tighten risk management controls in the near term, which could lengthen credit approval processes,” the brokerage said.
Eagle Equities’ Mr. Mangun placed the market’s support level at 7,700 to 7,800, with resistance from 8,000 to 8,300.

PSE implements real-time broker ownership monitoring

THE local bourse has implemented new measures that will keep it within the prescribed broker ownership limit, in line with the single industry rule under the Securities Regulation Code (SRC).
The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) said in a statement over the weekend that it has included real-time broker ownership monitoring through the trading system. This automatically prevents trading participants from placing a buy order for PSE shares should their accounts exceed the 20% limit for broker industry ownership.
Item C of Section 33.2 of the SRC states that “no person may beneficially own or control, directly or indirectly, more than five percent (5%) of the voting rights of the Exchange and no industry or business group may beneficially own or control, directly or indirectly, more than twenty percent (20%) of the voting rights of the Exchange.”
“We intend to observe the prescribed broker ownership limit in PSE by putting in place safeguards that will help us with this goal,” PSE President and Chief Executive Officer Ramon S. Monzon was quoted as saying in a statement.
Other measures include the regular updating of brokerage firms’ Customer Account Information Form, to disclose the relationship of clients to other trading participants, such as the directors, officers, and principal stockholders.
The PSE will monitor the accounts of related persons of broker dealers, including their subsidiaries and affiliates, directors, officers, principal stockholders, and nominees to the PSE, as well as their spouses and relative up to the fourth civil degree of consanguinity.
The exchange has earlier proposed to amend the PSE Rules Governing Trading Rights and Trading Participants, asking trading participants to abide by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s Rules Governing Trading of PSE shares.
This entails penalties of up to P300,000, in addition to suspension of trading operations for at least five days for the third and subsequent offense.
“While we have identified the appropriate measures to ensure that broker ownership remains below 20 percent, we call on our trading participants to help and support us in ensuring that the legal requirements are strictly observed,” Mr. Monzon said.
The PSE initiated efforts to bring down broker ownership in 2017, when it was still working on getting the SEC’s approval for its proposed acquisition of the Philippine Dealing System Holdings Corp. (PDSHC).
The PSE-PDSHC merger, however, is not likely to push, through as the state-run Land Bank of the Philippines also intends to purchase the fixed-income exchange with the backing of the Department of Finance. — Arra B. Francia

US shutdown sets off hunt for farm data

CHICAGO — When the US Department of Agriculture announced last week that a slew of key farm reports would not be released on Friday due to the partial government shutdown, the phones at crop forecaster Gro Intelligence blew up.
The USDA was set to release its views on the projected size of US soybean stockpiles, among other data, following a record-large domestic harvest and a trade war with China that has slowed US exports.
Commodity traders, economists, grain merchants and farmers are anxious for crop updates as they work to project their financial balance sheets and make spring planting decisions.
“It’s been crazy busy,” said Sara Menker, chief executive of New York-based Gro Intelligence.
The shutdown, now in its third week, has rippled across the already struggling US farm economy ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned address at the American Farm Bureau conference in Louisiana on Monday. Federal loan and farm aid applications have also been delayed.
To fill the void on data, traders and farmers are relying on private crop forecasters, satellite imagery firms and brokerages offering analyses on trade and supplies. Some have been scouring Twitter for tidbits on shifting weather patterns and rumors of grain exports, but say it is difficult to replace the USDA.
“We’re just doing the best we can, looking for as much information as is available,” said Brian Basting, economist for Illinois-based broker Advance Trading, which provides customers its own harvest and crop supply estimates.
Dan Henebry, an Illinois corn and soy farmer, said the absence of USDA data was difficult.
“You delay all these reports and the market has no idea where to go, other than trade guesses,” Henebry said.
HUNT FOR NUMBERS
Gro Intelligence has been offering free access to its data platform since Dec. 27, and released worldwide supply-demand crop forecasts on Friday.
The company’s estimates for the US 2018-2019 corn crop yield were 177.4 bushels per acre, below both USDA’s last forecast and lower than the average of estimates in a Reuters survey. Gro pegged the US 2018-2019 soybean yield at 50.6 bushels per acre, also below USDA and below the range of Reuters’ survey.
The company will keep its platform open for the duration of the shutdown, Menker said.
So far, Menker said, the site has signed up executives from the top 10 global agribusiness companies and financial institutions with credit exposure to US agriculture.
Data firm Mercaris has gained new subscribers too, as it has become the only source for organic commodity prices since the halt in USDA reports, sales director Alex Heilman said. The Maryland-based company is making an additional pricing report available to users for free until the federal agency reopens.
“Everybody still needs this information for creating contracts, new product lines, planting acres,” Heilman said.
Farmers Business Network (FBN), which collects harvest data from 7,000 US farmers, was set to release crop yield estimates on Friday to members. The data is not as comprehensive as the USDA’s report would have been, though, said Kevin McNew, FBN’s chief economist.
“At the end of the day, we still need a benchmark,” McNew said. “For better or worse, USDA is the best benchmark we have.”
Trading volume in Chicago Board of Trade grain futures typically jumps on the day in mid-January when the USDA releases its major reports. But without the reports on Friday, volume fell in the most actively traded corn and soy contracts, and rose less in wheat futures than it typically does when USDA issues its data, according to preliminary data from CBOT owner CME Group Inc.
While crops are not growing in North America during the winter season, traders are still looking for updated information from South America and other parts of the world where soy and other crops are growing.
An increase in private companies using government-collected satellite images to track farmed fields in recent years helps shine a light on global crop conditions even while government agencies are dark. The government’s Landsat satellites continue to collect images of the earth and other data.
Private companies such as New Mexico-based crop forecaster Descartes Labs can still access the open-sourced data and analyze it. The public can normally see those images on the US Geological Survey’s website, but it is not being updated during the shutdown, according to a notice on the site.
And all technology can be problematic, said Steve Truitt, government program manager for Descartes.
Data occasionally has shown up late during the shutdown, or not arrived, Truitt said. The USDA and Interior Department staffers who Descartes usually calls either cannot be reached or are working without pay, he said, leading to awkward conversations. — Reuters

‘Greek Freak’ inspires new STR8 fragrances

POPULAR European men’s fragrance line STR8 is now available in the country and is encouraging young men to “Go for Great” much like their brand ambassador National Basketball Association superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Exclusively available at Watsons Retail Chain and The SM Stores, the new STR8 Fragrance Collection takes cue from the journey of the “Greek Freak,” who confidently and passionately rose from the amateur ranks in Greece to become one of the best all-around players right now in the NBA.
It is the same confidence that the people behind the STR8 Brand — the Sarantis Group and iface Inc. — want young men to exude in life, enhanced by every spray of the perfume collection.
Under the Antetokounmpo line are the “Rise” and “Ahead scents, which the player hails as representative of who he is on and off the court.
STR8 belongs to Sarantis Group portfolio of own brands. The Group is one of the leading fast-moving consumer goods company in Europe and has a very strong international presence, operating subsidiaries in 12 European countries through an extensive distribution network and exporting to more than 40 countries worldwide.
The Philippines is the first market in the world to launch the New STR8 Fragrance Collection under Mr. Antetokounmpo’s signature. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Gov’t debt yields drop on inflation

By Mark T. Amoguis
Researcher
YIELDS ON government securities dropped last week as market players reacted further to easing inflation expectations as well as the dovish tone of the US Federal Reserve meeting’s minutes.
Bond yields, which move opposite to prices, slipped by an average of 20.5 basis points (bp) week-on-week, according to the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates posted on the Philippine Dealing System’s Web site on Jan. 11.
“The latest decline in PHP BVAL yields has been largely due to the continuing positive effects of the easing inflation trend and expectations of further decline in inflation that would fundamentally lead to some downward adjustments on local interest rates,” Michael L. Ricafort, economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), said in an e-mail last week.
On the external front, Mr. Ricafort said: “More dovish statements/reiterations from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve minutes, and from other Fed officials that suggest a possible pause in Fed rate hikes have also supported relatively lower US government bond yields.”
“The latest $1.5 billion 10-year RoP (Republic of the Philippines) bond issuance partly reduced the need to borrow from the domestic market, thereby partly leading to lower local interest rates/PHP BVAL yields [last] week,” he added.
A bond trader interviewed on Friday agreed, saying the market was still reacting to lower inflation figures for December.
“The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes show a more dovish Fed,” the trader added.
Latest Philippine Statistics Authority data showed that headline inflation in December rose by 5.1% annually, easing from 6% in November but faster than 2.9% in the same month the previous year. This was the slowest pace since May’s 4.6% print.
This brought inflation to average 5.2% in 2018, beyond the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2-4% target range and the highest since an 8.2% clip in 2008.
Meanwhile, minutes of the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting body FOMC released last week revealed policy makers wanting greater clarity on the state of the economy before going through the central bank’s rate hikes any further.
On the other hand, last Tuesday, the Philippines returned to the international debt market after it sold $1.5 billion in 10-year offshore dollar bonds priced 110 bps above the benchmark US treasuries and tighter than an initial 130-bp guidance.
At the close of trading on Friday, the short end of the curve saw yields on the three-, six-month, and one-year debt drop by 5.5 bps, 10.1 bps, and 12.9 bps, respectively, to close at 5.798%, 6.436%, and 6.644%.
The belly similarly dipped as two-, three-, four-, five-, and seven-year bonds saw their rates decrease by 22.8 bps, 29.9 bps, 31.9 bps, 32 bps, and 29.8 bps, respectively, to 6.513%, 6.504%, 6.494%, 6.498%, and 6.572%.
At the long end, the 20- and 25-year papers declined by 12.9 bps and 6.9 bps, fetching 7.245% and 7.303%.
For this week, “we may see a sideways with downward bias movement of yields. Market players are taking profits due to the big drop in yields,” the bond trader said.
RCBC’s Mr. Ricafort concurred: “For [this] week, the declining trend in most PHP BVAL yields could still continue, provided that the peso exchange rate continues its gradual appreciating trend vs. the US dollar (among the best in eight months recently), as this fundamentally leads to further easing of the inflation rate, amid continued foreign portfolio/hot money inflows seen since the start of 2019.”

How PSEi member stocks performed — January 11, 2019

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, January 11, 2019.
psei011419
 
Philippine Stock Exchange’s most active stocks by value turnover — January 11, 2019.
pseiactive011419

PEZA-registered investment falls 41% in 2018

THE Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said investment pledges, as measured by projects registered for incentives, fell nearly 41% in 2018, with the agency blaming the uncertainty stemming from the upcoming elections and the tax reform bill that proposes to overhaul the incentives system.
“The drop is for new investments caused by the uncertainties of change of policies, incentives,” PEZA Director-General Charito B. Plaza said in a mobile message last week.
The investment promotion agency said projects registered for investment were worth P140.24 billion, down 40.97% from a year earlier.
The registrations cover 529 projects in 2018 as compared to 554 in 2017.
The second round of tax reform legislation, known as Tax Reform for Attracting Better and High Quality Opportunities (TRABAHO) Bill, hopes to rationalize the investment incentives regime by making them more time-bound and performance-based.
“New investments dropped also because of the forthcoming election where the next Congress might change again the policies!” she added.
New investment in information technology, among the key drivers for PEZA revenue, rose 32.20% in 2018 to P20.57 billion.
The number of registered projects for IT rose to 188 in 2018 from 187 a year earlier.
“IT increased also because they’re (trying to beat) the new laws and changing of policies. Also, IT can easily pull out and transfer if they’re unhappy of the new policies,” Ms. Plaza added.
She noted, however, that locators’ export income and jobs contribution increased as businesses “are maximizing their production before TRABAHO bill (comes into force).”
In the 10 months to October, revenue from exporter-locators grew 6.58% to $45.18 billion.
Employment during the period expanded 7.33% to 1.5 million.
The TRABAHO Bill’s most contentious change is to remove the option to be taxed at the 5% gross income earned (GIE) rate, as offered by PEZA.
The agency backs keeping the GIE as preserving the one-stop shop feature of PEZA particularly in dealing with local government units who receive 2% of the GIE payment. — Janina C. Lim

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