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Australia can’t afford an AUKUS about-face: 5 things the critics are getting wrong

DAN FREEMAN-UNSPLASH

Three years have passed since the United States, Australia and United Kingdom announced on Sept. 15, 2021 that they would enter into a security partnership called AUKUS.

A major part of the deal involved the US and UK helping Australia acquire nuclear-propulsion submarines. This decision by the Morrison government controversially entailed backing out of a A$90-billion deal with a French company to purchase 12 submarines.

In recent months, the AUKUS deal has generated a fair amount of criticism from former Prime Ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull, former Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, and some in the media.

Critics have focused on five main arguments about AUKUS:

• the pact enhances the prospects of war with China

• Australia doesn’t need nuclear-propulsion submarines

• the deal makes our neighbors in South-East Asia uneasy

• it drags us back to our Anglosphere past, tying us closely to the US and UK

• the forecast cost of the submarines (between A$268 and $368 billion) is unconscionably high.

Yet, each of these claims is based on assertions that miss the point. Here’s why.

1. AUKUS increases the likelihood of war

Some critics argue that by acquiring nuclear-propulsion submarines, Australia will support a more belligerent posture by the US towards China, notably over Taiwan. And this makes war more likely.

This, however, belies American awareness of its own limitations and the risks such a provocative approach would entail.

Others argue AUKUS encourages a military industrial complex that ostensibly makes Australia more of a dependent — rather than independent — ally to the US. And this denies Australia agency in regional or global security affairs.

But this bleak interpretation, again, sees a binary world in which Australia would be expected to support the US unquestioningly in a potential war with China over Taiwan. It also overlooks the prospect that war might not happen — that China will squeeze, rather than seize Taiwan.

As defense expert Peter Dean has observed, the debate over Taiwan’s security is “an argument without context.” It ignores the importance of Australia’s own regional security strategy. Whether or not we’d support the US in a war, Dean says, is the wrong question in the wrong argument.

This belief that AUKUS increases the likelihood of war also misreads the nuanced nature of deterrence for which credible force is needed.

Indeed, realists widely acknowledge that weakness invites adventurism, even aggression. The whole point of having a defense force is to deter would-be aggressors by giving them pause for thought and, failing that, to inflict such costs on an enemy, they fail in their objectives.

Tensions are greater today than they have been in generations. And as strategic studies expert Brendan Taylor argues, there are at least four flash points in Australia’s region: Korea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and Taiwan.

Australia has a vested interest in preserving peace and stability in the region to protect and foster its prosperity. Capable and potent deterrent capabilities have proven increasingly effective at doing this, as conflicts in recent years in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown by not spiraling out of control.

So, the AUKUS deal shouldn’t be seen as provocative. Rather, it maintains strong deterrence in the region. Our neighbors understand that.

2. Australia doesn’t need nuclear-propulsion submarines

This myth persists despite mounting evidence. Australia is interested in nuclear-propulsion submarines because its ageing fleet of diesel-electric propulsion submarines has become vulnerable to aerial detection and strikes.

Most of earth is now covered by low-earth polar orbit satellites. Coupled with armed drones, artificial intelligence, and pattern analysis, this means a determined adversary can detect the wake of traditional submarine funnels when they raise their snorkels to recharge their batteries.

Given that stealth had been their only advantage over surface warships, diesel-electric submarines are no longer so useful where long transits are involved.

Australia’s diesel-electric submarines cannot transit from any major domestic or foreign port to their base in Western Australia without multiple snorts. And each snort generates a grave risk of detection. This leaves nuclear propulsion as the only viable option for countries with vast ocean distances to transit, such as Australia or the United States.

Operationally, nuclear-propulsion submarines have other considerable benefits. For one, they can travel faster (about 20 knots on average instead of 6.5 knots). The transit time from Fremantle to the Strait of Malacca, therefore drops from 18 days to just six days.

The faster transit speeds means coverage of key choke points can be maintained with a handful of submarines that can relocate (away from danger or to a new surveillance location) with breathtaking speed.

The nuclear-propulsion submarines can also stay underwater “on station” (at an assigned patrol location, say, the Malacca or Lombok straits) for longer. A fleet should also be able to be deployed three times longer than Australia’s current submarines, remaining undetected without needing to recharge batteries.

3. The neighbors don’t like it

Official reservations about AUKUS in public declarations are entirely understandable, given Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy.

Yet, the new enhanced defense pact signed by Australia and Indonesia on Aug. 29 suggests that Indonesia, like the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, are quite comfortable with Australia engaging in AUKUS and with its neighbors concurrently.

4. The focus on the Anglosphere detracts from regional engagement

Australia was once described as a “torn country” because of its geographical location in the Asia-Pacific and its historical and cultural connections to the United Kingdom.

But these days, Australia is successfully managing the tension between its Anglosphere roots and its physical place in the world. Arguably, it’s a key factor making it attractive for foreign students and migrants, luring them away from UK and US alternatives.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s diplomatic successes also belie the line that AUKUS detracts from engagement with our neighbors. Successful summits with the Pacific Islands Forum and Association of South East Asian Nation leaders recently make a mockery of such claims.

Even France, the most slighted out of the AUKUS deal, has gotten over it because Australia matters to its Indo-Pacific claims.

Indeed, Labor’s election victory in 2022 allowed for a convenient reset in relations. This has been illustrated with the recently refreshed trilateral “FRANZ” agreement between France, Australia, and New Zealand.

5. The cost is unconscionable

A cost of up to A$368 billion over 30 years sounds like a lot. But this amount is unlikely to be fully spent as other efficiencies may arise and because defense is accommodating the submarines from its existing budget, much to the chagrin of the Air Force and Army having to make cutbacks.

Defense budget increases are occurring only incrementally, with substantial increases slated for several years into the future.

To be sure, the government must grapple with competing demands for missiles, aircraft, drones, and other fighting systems. As retired Lieutenant General Peter Leahy observed, military readiness requires additional expenditures in the short term to hedge against uncertainty.

Ironically enough, however, increased reliance on US-sourced technology is key to enabling a more self-reliant defense posture.

Australia prides itself on its high level of interoperability with the US military as part of maintaining a qualitative technological edge. This is intended to compensate for its lack of quantity when it comes to military hardware and uniformed personnel.

Under AUKUS, the US is transferring the know-how to build, maintain and operate the nuclear-powered submarines in Australia. This relies on trusted access to the most advanced US military technology — building on more than 80 years of collaboration on intelligence matters.

These advanced systems are vital should the US prove unwilling or unable to engage as actively in the neighborhood as we might like in the future.

BALANCING INTERESTS
What has emerged in recent times is what Rory Medcalf, head of the ANU National Security College, describes as “the Australian way of war and peace.” This means Australia is respectfully but firmly asserting its rights, protecting its interests and setting an example for others in the neighborhood to follow.

In weighing up Australia’s interests, we must look beyond the critiques. Now is not the time for yet another submarine about-face.

The geopolitical circumstances and new technological advances point to the need to stay the course.

THE CONVERSATION VIA REUTERS CONNECT

 

John Blaxland is a professor at the Strategic and Defense Studies Center, Australian National University. From 2015-2018, he received funding from the US Department of Defense Minerva Research Initiative to undertake a study on the US-Thai alliance and Asian international relations (co-authored with Dr. Greg Raymond and published with Routledge in 2021).

Teamsters will not endorse Trump or Harris in US presidential race

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said Wednesday that the union will not endorse any US presidential candidate despite polling that showed a majority of members backed Republican candidate Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris.

The 1.3-million-member union — which represents truck drivers and a wide range of other workers ranging from airline pilots to zookeepers — had released a national electronic poll of its members Wednesday that showed rank-and-file members preferred the former president over Vice-President Harris by 59.6% to 34%.

The Teamsters have endorsed every Democratic candidate for president since 2000 but have on occasion endorsed Republicans, including President Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Vice-President George H.W. Bush in 1988. It is the first time since 1996 the union is not making an endorsement.

Most major unions have endorsed Ms. Harris, including the United Auto Workers union. The AFL-CIO, which represents 60 unions and 12.5 million workers, endorsed Ms. Harris in July.

The Teamsters’ executive board endorsement had been widely anticipated because it was seen as a factor in a handful of battleground states that will decide the Nov. 5 election, including Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, where union membership is strong.

“We couldn’t get solid commitments on our core issues,” Teamsters President Sean O’Brien told Fox News said in explaining the union’s decision. “No endorsement I think sends a message to both parties that if they truly want to support working people, they have to re-evaluate it and understand that nothing is given, it is earned.”

Ms. Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt noted that despite the national union decision, some Teamsters locals have endorsed Ms. Harris. “When she is elected president, she will look out for the Teamsters rank and file no matter what — because they always have been and always will be the people she fights for,” Ms. Hitt said.

Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters at a New York bar, said of the Teamsters decision not to endorse a candidate: “It’s a great honor. They’re not going to endorse the Democrats. That’s a big thing.”

In a later survey, the union said that, following the Sept. 10 presidential debate, independent polling firm Lake Research Partners found in a survey ending Sept. 15 that Teamsters members selected Mr. Trump by 58% for endorsement over 31% for Ms. Harris.

Mr. O’Brien and other union representatives met with Ms. Harris Monday after meeting with Mr. Trump in January. The Teamsters said its own polling data showed that, before Mr. Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race on July 21, members backed Mr. Biden 44.3% to Trump’s 36.3%.

O’Brien spoke to the Republican National Convention in July, but also criticized Trump for suggesting that workers who go on strike could be fired. — Reuters

After supersized Fed policy rate cut, market hopes ride on US soft landing

REUTERS

NEW YORK — One of the most consequential US Federal Reserve meetings in recent history has put investors’ focus squarely on one question: whether the central bank has kicked off its rate cutting cycle in time to keep the economy from slowing too rapidly.

The Fed delivered a 50-basis-point (bp) rate cut on Wednesday — lowering borrowing costs for the first time in more than four years — and assured investors the jumbo-sized reduction was a measure to safeguard a resilient economy, rather than an emergency response to recent weakness in the labor market. Bets on the size of the rate cut swung in the days before the meeting and were near an even split on Wednesday morning.

The degree to which Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s outlook pans out is likely to be a key factor in the trajectory of stocks and bonds for the remainder of 2024.

Prospects of a “soft landing,” where the Fed brings down inflation without pushing the economy into recession, have lifted stocks and bonds this year, though signs of a softening labor market have fueled worries that the Fed may be too late in acting to shore up growth.

“Right now, it looks as if the market is going to pause to digest what was to many a surprise,” said Eric Beyrich, co-CIO of investment advisory firm Sound Income Strategies. “There will still be people thinking, ‘wow, If the Fed cuts big like that, what do they see that we’re not seeing that suggests the economy will get worse?’”

Market reaction on Wednesday was relatively subdued as stocks, Treasuries and the dollar retraced initial, post-decision rallies. The S&P 500 ended down 0.3%, after rising as much as 1% during the session. The index is up nearly 18% this year and stands near a record high.

In comments following the decision, Powell called the move a “recalibration” to account for the sharp decline in inflation since last year and said the central bank wanted to stay ahead of any potential weakening in the jobs market.

Some investors were skeptical of that sunny view.

“Despite what Chair Powell is saying in the press conference, a 50 basis point move does indicate that there is concern that they are behind the curve,” said Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer at Wilshire.

Mr. Emanuel said he was already overweight bonds coming into the meeting, favoring investment-grade credit over riskier high-yield bonds ahead of an expected deterioration in the economy.

Many others, however, believed the rate cuts were a positive development for the market and would buoy the economy.

“I think that this dramatically increases the odds of the Fed being able to stick the landing, which ultimately will be bullish for risk assets,” said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments.

Indeed, stocks have performed well following rate cuts — as long as the economy stayed out of recession. The S&P 500 has posted an average 14% gain in the six months following the first reduction of a rate-cutting cycle, when the Fed cut in a non-recessionary period, data from Evercore ISI going back to 1970 showed. That compares to a 4% decline in that period after the initial cut when the economy is in a recession.

Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock, said investors may have overreacted to recent labor markets reports that had come in weaker than expected. Other data, such as gross domestic product growth estimates, continued to show a resilient economy.

“I think the markets got ahead of themselves again in terms of interpreting that data was very soft,” he said. “Chair Powell said it’s a solid economy, and it is.”

LONG-TERM ADJUSTMENTS
Fed officials updated their views on interest rates from their latest June projections, but while they now anticipate deeper cuts, those rate forecasts remained above market expectations of a more accommodative central bank.

The Fed said it expects the Fed funds rate — currently in the 4.75% to 5% range — at 3.4% by the end of next year, while rates traders are betting on about 2.9%. Also, the Fed’s endpoint for rate cuts reflected a slight upgrade, to 2.9% from 2.8%.

The outlook gap may have sparked a reversal in Treasury markets, sparking a selloff in longer-term Treasuries on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to bond prices, stands at around 3.73 after touching its lowest level since mid-2023 earlier this week.

“In terms of the pace at which cuts were priced in, I think this is a right reaction,” said John Madziyire, head of US Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard, who was betting on long-term yields moving higher.

Others were looking even further out, with some pointing to the outcome of the US presidential election as potentially complicating the path for rate cuts going forward.

“If trade wars were to ensue under a Trump presidency, that could be negative for fixed income,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of US fixed income for RBC Global Asset Management. “That would be inflationary and limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates.” — Reuters

SMLEs told to adopt sustainable practices

BW FILE PHOTO

SMALL, medium, and large enterprises (SMLEs) should adopt sustainable practices to support the country’s growth, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said.

“Sustainability is about making choices for a long-term impact on the environment, society, and economy,” SEC Corporate Governance and Finance Department Director Rachel Esther J. Gumtang-Remalante said in an e-mailed statement on Thursday.

“We envision that sustainability is not just a matter of awareness but a standard practice of SMLEs,” she added.

Ms. Remalante said this as the commission held the third installment of the SEC Small and Medium Industries and Large Enterprises Embracing Sustainability (SMILEES) Roadshow in Baguio City on Sept. 18.

The roadshow was organized by the SEC in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme, through the Accelerating Green and Climate Finance, a project funded by the Canadian government.

The two previous roadshows were held in Cebu in March and in Davao in June, respectively.

The roadshow seeks to encourage sustainable practices among SMLEs by fostering awareness, capacity building, developing measuring tools, establishing effective monitoring schemes, and giving the participants the opportunity to share and learn from each other about sustainability practices.

“The SEC SMILEES Roadshow aims to embed sustainability concepts among SMLEs while gearing toward a greener capital market and sustainable future,” the commission said.

Following the roadshow in Baguio City, the SEC will be holding the annual Corporate Governance Forum, organized together with the Philippine Stock Exchange in November. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs pleads not guilty to sex trafficking; judge denies bail

Sean “Diddy” Combs on the talk show Late Night with Seth Myers. — IMDB

NEW YORK — Sean “Diddy” Combs used his fame as one of hip-hop’s biggest names to coerce women into demeaning sexual acts as part of a long-running scheme of sex trafficking and racketeering, prosecutors said on Tuesday in bringing three criminal charges against him.

Mr. Combs, 54, pleaded not guilty in Manhattan federal court hours after the 14-page indictment was unsealed. US Magistrate Judge Robyn Tarnofsky denied bail for Mr. Combs, granting a prosecution request for continued detention before trial following the music mogul’s arrest on Monday.

The rapper and producer used his business empire including his record label Bad Boy Entertainment to transport women, as well as male sex workers, across state lines to take part in recorded sexual performances called “Freak Offs” in which the music mogul would watch and masturbate, prosecutors said.

In a possible preview of defense strategy, Mr. Combs’ lawyer Marc Agnifilo called the sexual activity described by prosecutors consensual.

“Does everybody have experience with being intimate this way? No. Is it sex trafficking? No. Not if everybody wants to be there,” Mr. Agnifilo told the judge.

Mr. Combs faces a sentence of up to life in prison, and a minimum of 15 years, if convicted of the three felony counts: racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking, and transportation to engage in prostitution.

Prosecutors said Mr. Combs enticed women by giving them drugs such as ketamine and ecstasy, financial support, or promises of career support or a romantic relationship. Mr. Combs then used the surreptitious recordings of the sex acts as “collateral” to ensure that the women would remain silent, and sometimes displayed weapons to intimidate abuse victims and witnesses, prosecutors said.

The indictment did not specify how many women were alleged victims. It contained no allegation that Mr. Combs himself directly engaged in unwanted sexual contact with women, though he was accused of assaulting them by punching, kicking, dragging, and throwing objects. Mr. Combs and his associates used bribery and violence such as arson and kidnapping to try to keep his conduct secret, prosecutors said.

When Ms. Tarnofsky asked how he wished to plead, Mr. Combs — wearing a black T-shirt and gray sweatpants — stood up, pulled a thin microphone on the defense table upward, and said, “Not guilty.”

“My concern is that this is a crime that happens behind closed doors,” the judge said in denying bail, before Mr. Combs was led out of the courtroom by members of the US Marshals Service.

Defense lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he will appeal his client’s continued detention at a hearing on Wednesday before US District Judge Andrew Carter, who will oversee the rest of the case.

Also known during his career as P. Diddy and Puff Daddy, Combs founded Bad Boy records and is credited with helping turn rappers and R&B singers such as Mary J. Blige, Faith Evans, Notorious B.I.G., and Usher into stars in the 1990s and 2000s.

‘EXTREMELY DANGEROUS’
Prosecutors accused Mr. Combs of running a criminal enterprise to facilitate his exploitation of women, dating back at least 16 years, in a case brought by the office of Manhattan US Attorney Damian Williams.

“The defendant Sean Combs physically and sexually abused victims for decades,” prosecutor Emily Johnson, arguing for continued detention, told the judge. “He is extremely dangerous to the community.”

The defense had sought to have Mr. Combs released on $50 million bond secured by his Miami home. Mr. Agnifilo acknowledged that Mr. Combs has a history of drug use and toxic relationships, and said he was getting treatment and therapy, without going into specifics.

Mr. Combs is the highest-profile music industry figure charged with sexual misconduct since R&B singer R. Kelly was sentenced to a combined 31 years in prison after being convicted in New York in 2021 and Chicago in 2022 sex trafficking, racketeering, child sex crimes, and other counts.

Hit with a series of civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual and other misconduct as well as a federal criminal investigation, Mr. Combs’ career has been derailed in the past year.

Last November, his former girlfriend Casandra Ventura, an R&B singer known as Cassie, accused him in a lawsuit of serial physical abuse, sexual slavery and rape. She agreed to an undisclosed settlement one day after suing. Mr. Combs denied her allegations.

In a March 2016 incident that resembles Ms. Cassie’s description of his alleged attack, prosecutors said Mr. Combs was captured on a hotel security video striking and dragging a woman trying to leave a “Freak Off.” Mr. Combs then offered a stack of cash to a hotel security officer who intervened, prosecutors said.

Prosecutors said Mr. Combs’ employees helped arrange the “Freak Offs” by booking hotel rooms and buying controlled substances and other items used during sex, according to the indictment.

During raids of his homes in Los Angeles and Miami Beach, Florida six months ago, authorities found drugs and 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant, along with AR-15 rifles with defaced serial numbers, the indictment said. — Reuters

The worrisome Wild West of testosterone hacking

FREEPIK

NOWADAYS, men in their 40s like me are constantly being urged to get their testosterone levels checked, as private clinics and online providers tout “testosterone replacement therapy” (TRT) as the way to improve sexual, physical and mental well-being. It’s a concerning development in TRT’s two-decade journey from being a niche therapy to a lifestyle panacea.

While I’m all for restoring natural testosterone levels for those with a genuine deficiency, the boundaries of therapeutic use and physical enhancement are becoming fuzzy. There’s a danger that opting for TRT as a cure-all means health issues such as obesity aren’t appropriately addressed, while young men risk impaired fertility and a lifetime of unnecessary and costly injections.

This “Wild West” of medical overprescribing and self-medication of testosterone has been fueled by an image-conscious culture obsessed with self-optimizing, stymieing the aging process and averting a supposed crisis of masculinity, as well as by commercial medicine’s fondness for billable “wonder” cures to complex health problems.

Championed by buff podcasters, Hollywood actors, fitness influencers, and even former US presidential candidates, testosterone consumption is booming: In February, the trailing 12-month total of US dispensed prescriptions surpassed 10 million, according to data from healthcare research firm Iqvia Holdings, Inc.

TRT is a long-established, medically approved treatment for male hypogonadism — a relatively uncommon failure of endogenous testosterone production due to disorders of the testes, pituitary gland, or brain, commonly accompanied by low libido and erectile disfunction.

The idea of TRT is to restore normal hormone levels. But the benefits are potentially profound and go beyond improving sexual function. Testosterone increases bone density and hemoglobin, and thus can help with osteoporosis and anemia. Patients also tend to be evangelical about the impact on their mood, mental health, and overall quality of life.

“We have good evidence that TRT makes a big difference for men with a proper diagnosis of testosterone deficiency,” says Ben Davis, a London-based general practitioner specializing in sexual medicine and clinical sexology. “The big issue is around accurate diagnosis and thresholds for treatment — when do you say no to a patient wanting TRT? When do you say this isn’t testosterone deficiency?”

Over the past 20 years, private clinics have extended the TRT market by exploiting ambiguities about what counts as a deficiency and which symptoms warrant treatment. Increasingly, these firms are promoting TRT for non-specific conditions like fatigue, lack of motivation, inability to concentrate, and weight gain, which may have other causes. (Obesity and diabetes are associated with decreased testosterone, and this might explain indications that today’s men have lower T-levels than prior generations.)

Robert Stevens, medical director of a men’s health clinic in Dorset, England, told me men should be looking to not need TRT by addressing lifestyle factors such as stress, sleep, nutrition, and physical exercise. “The whole premise of TRT is to normalize physiology to allow you to put the work in,” he said. “But instead, you have cash-cow companies saying ‘Congrats! You Qualify for TRT!’”

This isn’t an exaggeration. In 2018, New York state’s attorney general took a chain of men’s health clinics to task for featuring a “Low-T” quiz on its website; checking off even a single symptom out of 11 options — such as “I often fall asleep after dinner” — was sufficient for patients to be informed they could be a candidate.

This has contributed to a casualness about injecting testosterone, which men now believe is “akin to taking a multivitamin,” the author and lifestyle guru Tim Ferriss wrote in February. But messing with your hormones isn’t something you should do lightly.

TRT is considered relatively safe — when administered appropriately. In 2015, the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) ordered that testosterone product labels warn about potential increased risk of heart attacks and strokes. However, European regulators didn’t echo these concerns, and a trial commissioned at the FDA’s request involving more than 5,000 men ages 45-80 has since found no increased risk of major cardiovascular events or prostate cancer following treatment with a testosterone gel.

While that’s reassuring, there are other potential risks, such as polycythemia (increased red blood cell production), which must be carefully monitored because it can lead to blood clots.

Another issue is that administering exogenous testosterone suppresses a patient’s natural testosterone and sperm production, causing the testes to shrink. This can lead to fertility problems unless supplementary medicines are consumed. “We see this all the time, where guys who are doing this in their 20s decide they want to have kids in their 30s and they can’t,” the physician and longevity expert Peter Attia told a podcast in April.

TRT can also become a lifelong commitment, because stopping will cause the patient’s testosterone levels to revert to where they were before treatment. And this dependency is a potential money-spinner for private clinics. Costs vary by provider and level of support, but fees of around $100-$200 per month are typical among US online-only providers, who often don’t accept insurance.

Terms about low testosterone coined by men’s health clinics, such as “male menopause” and “andropause,” are unhelpful and misleading, according to Britain’s NHS. Testosterone levels ebb around 1% a year starting from the age of around 30 or 40 — nowhere near comparable to the unavoidable change women experience during menopause.

While estimates vary, around 75% of men maintain normal testosterone levels into old age, according to the British Society for Sexual Medicine. (Unfortunately, men in the UK who might genuinely benefit from TRT often struggle to access it via the NHS, either because general practitioners lack sufficient knowledge or because US overprescribing trends have made physicians more guarded.)   

The FDA regulates drug approvals, not the practice of medicine, and hence clinics aren’t prevented from dispensing testosterone off-label, providing patients are informed of the risks. But in an e-mailed statement, the regulator warned it has “not approved any testosterone or estrogen products to slow, stop or reverse the biological aging process in men or women,” nor has it evaluated “the effectiveness and the safety of these hormone therapies when used off-label in the manner as described.”

Thanks to a relaxation of rules governing controlled substances during the pandemic, US telemedicine services have been able to prescribe testosterone without an in-person doctor’s visit.

A 2022 mystery shopper study of seven of these online platforms found six were willing to prescribe a 34-year-old man who was already comfortably within the normal testosterone range of 264-916 nanograms per deciliter. Only half of these companies discussed fertility risks, and three stated a treatment goal of testosterone-levels above 1,000 ng/dl. (The study did not identify the companies.)

“Private men’s health clinics tend to attract clients who want testosterone — everybody is happy. Their business model is prescribing testosterone and they don’t do anything that will get in the way of that,” says Richard Quinton, a consultant endocrinologist and adviser on reproductive health to the Society for Endocrinology. “If the blood test result comes back within the normal range, then men are told their testosterone levels should be even higher.”1

While men doubtless appreciate the privacy and convenience of these services, prescribing doses in excess of the body’s inherent ability to make testosterone to patients without a proven deficiency and absent appropriate counseling is irresponsible. Besides increasing the chances of adverse effects, it risks giving a legitimate therapy a bad reputation.

Online testosterone providers may soon have their wings clipped as the US Drug Enforcement Administration is reportedly considering restricting their ability to treat patients entirely virtually. This might sound reasonable enough, but there are potential drawbacks: The transgender community has raised legitimate concerns about access.

Moreover, if TRT patients are denied treatment, they have other, riskier options. Self-medicating with testosterone and similar synthetic steroids — which are relatively easy to acquire via the internet or at gyms — is a growing problem. It’s been estimated that 6.4% of men and 1.6% of women abuse them.2

A generation of young gym-goers have been convinced that taking huge amounts of testosterone is the only way to achieve the pumped-up male physique celebrated by Hollywood and on TikTok; distrustful of doctors, they’re relying on crowdsourced “bro-science” instead. I sympathize with men struggling with body dysmorphia and feelings of inadequacy, and steroid users are often in other respects quite health conscious. But they’re playing with fire.

Administering testosterone without medical supervision and at levels far greater than normally found in the body increases the possibility of side effects such as hair loss, male breast growth, mental health and cardiovascular problems. (Trials like the one mentioned endorsing the safety of testosterone are generally conducted with lower doses.)

TRT providers stress there’s a big difference between therapeutic use and taking steroids, but this is mostly a matter of dosage and intentions. In other words, it’s a spectrum. These days, terms like “sports TRT” are bandied around online to refer to “cruising” on a persistently high dose of testosterone. But not taking a break makes it harder for the body’s natural production to recover.

“Some of these men are resigned to being on self-medicated TRT for life,” warns Con Lafferty, a mental health nurse who set up a steroid harm reduction clinic in Edinburgh.

Essentially, it’s hard not to worry about a Pandora’s box, as the tendency to link testosterone with virility and masculinity opens the door to overprescribing and misuse. Doctors and regulators, as well as consumers, need to wise up.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

1To confirm a deficiency, it’s advisable to have two blood tests conducted on separate occasions, in a fasted state and in the morning when natural levels are highest. Not following best practice can result in a false diagnosis.

2While non-prescription testosterone is illegal in the US, possession is not a criminal offense in the UK.

Theft of office supplies

If I bring home office ballpens, a few pieces of paper, pencils, or even paper clips, would I be liable for theft? What if everyone, including managers, is doing it and justifies the value of those supplies as negligible, would the culprits be held liable? — Cracker Nut

It depends on your company policy. Check your code of conduct or similar management policies. Understand its definition and applicable penalties. You can’t go wrong with those rules. It could be under the provision of qualified theft or simple theft, if not under the shotgun phrases like “serious misconduct” or “willful breach of trust and confidence.”

Don’t look for a specific provision on the theft of office supplies. Instead, see if there is a broad definition of theft of company property.

If there’s no specific provision under the company’s code of conduct, the appropriate reference is Article 291 (formerly Article 282) of the Labor Code, under which management can apply the rules on serious misconduct, fraud or willful breach of trust, or “other causes analogous” to them.

In addition, management could also invoke Article 308 of the Revised Penal Code as a general reference.

STRICT RULE
In reality, bringing home some office supplies is a nonissue in many organizations. That’s because some managers are also guilty of the same offense. But then, what constitutes theft?

In the companies that I worked for before, the rules were clear — theft is theft, regardless of the value of office supplies or company property stolen. They are more pronounced under the following circumstances:

One is a general practice in the banking industry or other financial institutions. A good friend with more than two decades of HR experience in the banking industry told me of a case of a teller who “borrowed” $1.50 worth of loose coins from her cash box to buy something from an ambulant snack vendor, who had no loose change at the time.

Generally, such an amount is insignificant when compared to the value of office supplies that are often pilfered. Unfortunately for the teller, she was discovered after an audit, and her services were terminated after due process.

Two, depends on the rank of erring employees. Companies are stricter with those holding a position of trust, like a supervisor, manager, or even ordinary workers holding confidential and fiduciary positions.

Examples of the latter are those entrusted with company money or property like executive assistants, cashiers, bank or toll gate tellers, auditors, or property custodians.

However, in certain labor jurisprudence, termination of employment is not automatic for ordinary workers, especially when they have been in service for a long period with no prior derogatory record. They are allowed to invoke mitigating circumstance and are typically suspended without pay instead of dismissed.

Three, application of flexible penalties. This varies with the offender’s personal circumstances. Many codes of conduct allow for flexible penalties like suspension without pay for theft of insignificant value or allowing those involved to resign in exchange for an honorable dismissal.

Of course, if the amount is significant and taken fraudulently, the usual penalty is termination of employment, plus a criminal case to recover the amount of loss and payment of damages.

NAPAG-INITAN
In my close to 40 years of HR experience, I’ve seen cases being brought against employees and managers, not because of a genuine concern for the welfare of the organization but for personal, malevolent reasons. A case of napag-initan lang.

It happens when top management feels somebody must be off-loaded due to a personality conflict or as a cover-up for the boss’s gross incompetence.

I have also been consulted by HR managers who were told by their chief executive officer or senior management officials to fabricate a case against certain employees so they can be forced out.

Obviously, that’s wrong. My reply was that it’s better to use the “freezer” and keep from assigning them work until they hand in their resignations. Of course, this puts the organization at risk when these employees file a case of illegal dismissal.

It’s ultimately their call. If they think it’s wrong, then best not to do it. Resign to prove your point. It’s difficult, but I’m sure you don’t want to be a tool for wrongful persecution. Sooner or later, you’ll be the next target with that kind of leadership.

 

Bring Rey Elbo’s leadership program called “Superior Subordinate Supervision” to your organization. Contact him via Facebook, LinkedIn, X, or e-mail elbonomics@gmail.com or via https://reyelbo.com.

Philippines drops further in IMD World Talent ranking

THE PHILIPPINES slumped to the near bottom of an annual global ranking of countries’ ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce, a report by the Institute for Management Development (IMD) World Competitiveness Center showed. Read the full story.

Philippines drops further in IMD World Talent ranking

How PSEi member stocks performed — September 19, 2024

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Thursday, September 19, 2024.


Philippines may buy missile system brought in by US amid China tension

PHILIPPINESTAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES is open to acquiring the United States’ Typhon midrange missile system, a congressman said on Thursday, despite Chinese demands for the US to withdraw it from Manila after bringing it in for joint exercises earlier this year.

But there is no offer yet from the Philippines to buy the missile system and it is not included in the Defense department’s military modernization wish list that will be funded by standby funds in the 2025 national budget, Agusan del Norte Rep. Jose “Joboy” S. Aquino II told the House of Representatives plenary.

“There is none,” he said in reply to a question from Party-list Rep. Arlene D. Brosas whether there was a “proposal.” “Well, maybe when the time comes, we hope to do so,” he said in mixed English and Filipino.

The congressmen, who sponsored the agency’s budget for next year, said it would allot P25 billion of its unprogrammed appropriations for materiel acquisition. The fund is on top of the P50 billion the government allotted for military modernization next year.

The agency plans to use the standby funds to acquire more South Korean-made FA-50 light combat military jets and upgrades. It might also buy frigates and upgrade the weapon systems of Philippine Navy vessels, while boosting cybersecurity and electronic warfare capabilities, Mr. Aquino said.  He did not say how many.   

The US has no plan to withdraw the midrange missile system and is testing the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year, both countries said at the time, but has remained there.

The Southeast Asian archipelago, Taiwan’s neighbor to the South, is an important part of US strategy in Asia and would be an indispensable staging point for the military to aid Taipei in the event of a Chinese attack.

China and Russia condemned the move — the first deployment of the system to the Indo-Pacific — and accused Washington of fueling an arms race.

The deployment, some details of which have not been previously reported, comes as China and US defense treaty ally the Philippines clash over parts of the hotly contested South China Sea.

Recent months have brought a series of sea and air confrontations in the strategic waterway.

Philippine officials said Filipino and US forces continued to train with the missile system in northern Luzon, which faces the South China Sea and is close to the Taiwan Strait, and they were not aware of immediate plans to return it, even though the joint exercises end this month.

A Philippine army spokesman, Colonel Louie Dema-ala, told Reuters on Wednesday that training continues, and it was up to the United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) to decide how long the missile system would stay.

The Philippine Army had said the Typhon could stay beyond September and soldiers trained with it as recently as last week, engaging “in discussions over employing the system, with a focus on integrating host nation support,” according to a public affairs officer for USARPAC.

A senior Philippine government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, and another person familiar with the matter said the US and the Philippines were testing the feasibility of using the system there in the event of a conflict.

The government official said the Typhon — a modular system, which is intended to be mobile and moved as needed — was in the Philippines for a “test on the feasibility of deploying it in country, so that when the need arises, it could easily be deployed here.”

The office of Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. did not respond to a request for comment.

‘SLEEPLESS NIGHTS’
The US Army flew the Typhon, which can launch missiles including SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks with a range exceeding 1,600 kilometers (994 miles), to the Philippines in April in what it called a “historic first” and a “significant step in our partnership with the Philippines.”

A note by the US Congressional Research Service, a policy institute of the US Congress, published at the time said it was “not known if this temporary deployment could eventually become permanent.”

In July, army spokesman Louie Dema-ala confirmed that the Typhon missile launcher remained in the Philippines’ northern islands and said there was no specific date as to when it would be “shipped out,” correcting an earlier statement that it was due to leave in September.

A satellite image taken on Wednesday by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, and reviewed by Reuters showed the Typhon at the Laoag International Airport, in Ilocos Norte province.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, who analyzed the images, said the system remained there.

The senior government official who spoke to Reuters said there were no immediate plans to withdraw it.

“If ever it will be pulled out, it is because the objective has been achieved and it may be brought (back) in after all the repairs or the construction would have been done,” the official said, adding that there was strategic value for the Philippines in keeping the system to deter China.

“We want to give them sleepless nights.”

ANTI-SHIP WEAPONS
The US has been amassing a variety of anti-ship weapons in Asia, as Washington tries to catch up quickly in an Indo-Pacific missile race in which China has a big lead, Reuters has reported.

Although the US military has declined to say how many will be deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, more than 800 SM-6 missiles are due to be bought in the next five years, according to government documents outlining military purchases. Several thousand Tomahawks are already in US inventories, the documents showed.

China has denounced the deployment of the Typhon several times, including in May when Wu Qian, spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry, said Manila and Washington had brought “huge risks of war into the region.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin in June cited the deployment when announcing his country would resume production of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles.

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo in July assured his Chinese counterpart that the presence of the missile system in his country posed no threat to China and would not destabilize the region.

China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the South China Sea, which it mostly claims in full despite a 2016 arbitral ruling that backed the Philippines, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, the US has said.

China says its military facilities in the Spratly Islands are purely defensive, and that it can do what it likes in its own territory. — with Reuters

Manila may raise sea row with China as ASEAN chair

AN AERIAL VIEW of the BRP Sierra Madre at the contested Second Thomas Shoal on March 9, 2023. — REUTERS

By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES has started preparations for its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where it seeks raise its dispute with China Sea.

“We are already in the process of creating our national organizing committee [which is] responsible for the preparations,” Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo told a Senate Finance Committee hearing on the agency’s budget for next year.

“Of course, the West Philippine Sea and other regional issues will definitely be items (for discussion) under the political pillar of ASEAN,” he added, referring to areas of the South China Sea with the country’s exclusive economic zone.

Last year, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said Manila would take over the regional bloc’s chairmanship in 2026 as the country aims to “fortify the foundations of our community-building and navigate ASEAN as it embarks on a new chapter.”

He issued Administrative Order 17 ordering government agencies to form a national organizing committee that would oversee programs and projects related to the country’s hosting of ASEAN.

Nueva Ecija Rep. Joseph Gilbert F. Violago, who sponsored the Department of Foreign Affairs’ (DFA) proposed budget at the House of Representatives on Wednesday, said the DFA is studying the implications of bringing the sea dispute with China to the United Nations General Assembly.

Tensions between the Philippines and China have worsened in the past year as Beijing continues to block resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila has a handful of troops stationed at a beached vessel.

Meanwhile, Mr. Manalo said the Philippines does not want to gang up on China with the international community as it considers bringing their sea dispute to the UN.

“Why would we be ganging up (on China) if it is aimed at peace and security, maritime security?” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Senate hearing.

“We intend to raise the importance of international law, rules-based order and how to deal with disputes and differences through diplomatic and peaceful means and cooperation from different nations,” he added.

Beijing’s Foreign Ministry has said Manila and its allies ganging up on China would only destabilize the region and worsen tensions.

The Philippines’ biggest coast guard ship left Sabina Shoal on Sept. 14 after five months of being deployed there amid Chinese pressure to withdraw the vessel.

This was a few days after envoys from both sides held diplomatic talks in Beijing on how to ease tensions, even as both sides insisted on upholding their sovereign rights over features in the South China Sea, including Sabina shoal.

Mr. Manalo said the decision to remove BRP Teresa Magbanua from the shoal was not agreed on during the talks, adding that it was just a coincidence. “They discussed the issues, there was no deal (to pull out).”

Sabina Shoal, which China calls Xianbin Reef, lies 150 km (93 miles) west of the Philippine province of Palawan, well within its exclusive economic zone. Manila calls it Escoda Shoal.

The two nations have traded accusations of intentional ramming of each other’s vessels in a series of clashes last month, just after reaching a pact on resupply missions to a beached Filipino naval ship at Second Thomas Shoal.

They held the first round of bilateral talks this year in Manila, where they agreed on a “provisional arrangement” on resupply missions at Second Thomas Shoal and new lines of communications to improve their handling of sea disputes.

Beijing insists it has sovereignty over most of the South China Sea based on its old maps and has deployed hundreds of coast guard vessels deep into Southeast Asia to assert its claims, disrupting offshore energy and fishing activities of its neighbors including Malaysia and Vietnam.

In 2016, a United Nations-backed tribunal in the Hague voided China’s expansive claims for being illegal. Beijing has rejected the ruling.

Reassigning Bangsamoro seats ‘problematic’

Philippine President Benigno Aquino (C) applauds as Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal (2nd L) shakes hands with Senate President Franklin Drilon (2nd R) during the turnover ceremony of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) at the presidential palace in Manila September 10, 2014. — REUTERS

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

REDISTRIBUTING the Bangsamoro Parliament seats could take time and delay the elections next year after the Supreme Court ruled Sulu is not part of the region, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) said on Thursday.

“Our commitment really is that despite all of this, we will proceed with the elections,” Comelec Chairman George Erwin M. Garcia told a Senate budget hearing. “If they (Bangsamoro) manage to complete their seat redistribution on time, we can always make the adjustments in our resolution.”

“But if we are going to wait, then there could be problems. We have already adjusted the filing of the certificates of candidacy to Nov. 4-9 because we need to finalize the list of candidates by Dec.15,” he added.

This will be the first parliamentary election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Mr. Garcia said the seven seats originally allotted for Sulu province in the 2025 Bangsamoro parliamentary elections would become vacant after the high court’s ruling.

Under the law, the Bangsamoro Parliament must have 80 seats. Out of the 80, 40 will be nominated by political parties, 32 for parliamentary districts, and eight for sectoral districts selected by assemblies.

After Sulu was excluded, only 25 seats will be allotted for parliamentary districts.

“It is in our honest opinion that we could proceed… with the elections,” he told senators in mixed English and Filipino. “It was not stated that the 80 should be filled.”

Eighty seats for the entire Bangsamoro Parliament were originally up for grabs, seven of which were allotted for Sulu.

But the high court on Sept. 9 ruled that Sulu is not part of the region because the province did not ratify the Bangsamoro Organic Law.

National Union of People’s Lawyers (NUPL) President Ephraim B. Cortez said this could affect the peace process. “Because the government will surely negotiate with Bangsamoro, which has no authority to represent the people of Sulu,” he told BusinessWorld in a Viber chat. 

“This means that the [government] has to negotiate with two entities, the Bangsamoro and Sulu.”

He added that the Philippine government does not have to renegotiate with Sulu since it was part of peace talks.

“But there will be some complications in the implementation of, or compliance with, the terms of the peace agreement,” Mr. Cortez said.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the Bangsamoro election must be held in accordance with the peace agreement.

Sulu faces economic challenges and might find it harder in dealing with neighboring Malaysia, he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

He also said losing Sulu means the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, with which the government signed a peace deal in 2014, would lose supporters from the province and could make it more vulnerable to competing dynastic and religious groups there.

“If Bangsamoro politics becomes ultimately unstable as well, it may also undermine the stability of the current governance framework there,” he added.

TRANSITION FUND
Meanwhile, Senator Francis N. Tolentino said the government should create a transition fund for Sulu to prevent disruptions in the delivery of basic services.

“Let your creative juices out of your mind to perhaps create a Sulu transition fund, at least for the major agencies and departments,” he told officials from the Budget and Interior and Local Government departments at a finance committee hearing.

He said Interior officials could set aside a small fund from their proposed 2025 budget for Sulu province to help ensure uninterrupted government services. “It’s small, but when you put it all together, it will be a big help,” he said in Filipino.

The Philippines will hold midterm elections for congressmen, mayors, vice mayors and members of city councils on May 12, 2025. Twelve of the 24-member Senate will also be replaced.

Bangsamoro, which is composed of the provinces of Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao and Tawi-Tawi, was created in 2018 to end decades-long conflict in Mindanao by creating a political body that enjoys more autonomy than the old autonomous region it replaced. — with John Victor D. Ordoñez