Toward a Japan-focused foreign policy
Philippine foreign policy is usually defined by its relations with the two major powers, the United States and China. Thus, foreign policy under former President Benigno Aquino III was seen as close to the United States and even “anti-China.” Foreign policy under former President Rodrigo Duterte, however, swung the other way: away from the United States and much closer — one might say, an embrace — of China. Presently, President Bongbong Marcos is seen to rebalance the relationship, adopting a more centrist position.
I contend, however, that Philippine foreign policy should be more Japan-focused. It’s the third big planet in our foreign relations universe that exerts a gravitational pull on the Philippines. We have more interests aligned with Japan than with the other two countries. Consider:
1. Japan is physically in the neighborhood, unlike the United States. The latter can be distracted by its interests and relationship elsewhere, say in Europe and the Middle East. On the other hand, Japan has a permanent interest in the region. It would want to keep the sea lanes open and not allow China to dominate.
2. Japan, like the Philippines, is highly dependent on food and oil imports, unlike the United States. The United States is self-sufficient in energy and is a net exporter. The US is also self-sufficient in food, being a big net exporter. Its big land mass with favorable climactic conditions makes it a food superpower. Its economy is also not dependent on trade, unlike Japan. In other words, the US can afford to ignore the world.
Not so Japan. Japan is a country, like the Philippines, that must be obsessed with energy and food security, being so dependent on others. We have mutual interests to keep the trade routes open and to keep striving for greater energy and food independence.
3. Japan and the Philippines can complement each other. Japan’s principal problem in the coming decades is its aging and declining population. The Philippines, on the other hand, has a young demographic profile, with a median age of 24 years.
Japan can benefit not only by importing skilled labor from our labor-surplus country, but it can also relocate some of its factories to the Philippines. Japan has done that in Thailand, especially after the Plaza Accord, which caused the revaluation of the Japanese yen. However, Thailand, too, is rapidly aging. Its workforce is projected to shrink in the coming years. Its average age is about 40 years. Thailand is so short of labor that it is importing labor from nearby countries like Laos and Cambodia.
It’s true that Vietnam is a more attractive destination compared to the Philippines when it comes to manufacturing. However, Vietnam is still a Marxist-Leninist state, an authoritarian Communist regime like China. That carries a geopolitical risk for investors. The Philippines, on the other hand, is a democracy like Japan.
The Philippines could be to Japan what Mexico, under NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), is to the United States: a base for low-end manufacturing making use of low-cost labor. Another advantage the Philippines has is that its workforce is relatively proficient in English and therefore through the Philippines, Japan can reach further out in the world where English is the primary language of commerce.
It’s not only in manufacturing that Japan and the Philippines can cooperate. Agriculture too. Japan’s farming population is aging. The average age of farmers in Japan is 68 years. Its rural communities are fast depopulating as younger people seek their fortunes in big cities like Tokyo. Pretty soon, nobody will be left to sustain Japan’s farms and Japan is still years behind other countries in adopting digital technologies and artificial intelligence in agriculture.
With Japan so near, the country can export agricultural produce to Japan — but only if our farms are modernized. That means moving away from small-scale traditional agriculture toward bigger commercial farms.
Another possible area of interest to Japan is our mining industry. Japanese automotive manufacturers have to shift toward electric vehicles if they are to survive and electric vehicles require minerals like nickel and copper, which the Philippines has in abundance.
Another shared interest between the Philippines and Japan is trade. In contrast, the United States has abandoned its role as a free trade champion and has been reluctant to give out trade concessions. Its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) involves no trade concessions, just mutual agreements on issues like climate change and good governance. Because of its domestic politics, the United States withdrew from the Comprehensive Pacific Economic Partnership.
Japan, on the other hand, is a leader in global trade facilitation. It is a member of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). It took leadership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) when the United States withdrew. The Philippines has more to gain with the Japan-led CPTPP than with the US’s IPEF, where a trade deal isn’t on the horizon. Vietnam is a member of the CPTPP. It would be well if the Philippines joins too.
4. Japan’s GDP is still the third biggest in the world. On the military side, while its Constitution limits Japanese participation to self-defense, the Japanese military remains powerful. Japanese military spending has been quite modest but the Japanese government has signaled that it will boost military and defense spending, especially with threats to its security from China and North Korea.
Because of all of these, the Philippines should move closer to Japan and make it a focus of its foreign policy. This is why it is a surprise that President Bongbong Marcos has visited other countries but not yet Japan. On foreign aid alone, Japan is the biggest donor to the Philippines.
The Philippines should deepen cooperation with Japan at all levels — economic, military, social, and cultural. In the military field, Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri has suggested a VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) with Japan. On the labor front, there’s a lot of room for our skilled workers, especially healthcare workers, to find jobs in Japan.
The government should be promoting more cultural exchanges with Japan, and even encourage the teaching of the Japanese language in tertiary schools. This deeper cultural understanding and exchange will help facilitate military and economic cooperation.
Our foreign policy should cease to be a two-planet universe with China on one side and the United States on the other. China will remain a vital economic partner while the US will be important in security cooperation and partnership. However, our foreign policy should be multi-planetary. Japan should be a big planet in that universe, if not the biggest. We should also deepen our relationship with countries like South Korea and Canada for various reasons. (Both South Korea and Canada are also fast aging, while South Korea will also need minerals for its automotive industry. Therefore, there’s a need to urgently forge an FTA or Free Trade Agreement with both countries).
President Bongbong Marcos has made diplomacy and foreign relations a big part of his presidency. Why not focus on Japan?
Calixto V. Chikiamco is a member of the board of IDEA (Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis).
