Security Bank estimates 2021 GDP growth at 5.1%
Security Bank Corp. said the economy will likely expand by 5.1% in 2021 with household consumption continuing to support fourth quarter growth.
“So far the outlook for fourth quarter growth is on track. We’re seeing domestic activity improving and retail footprint getting more pronounced,” Security Bank Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a briefing Friday. “Consumption could likely be the key driver again.”
“We can’t really characterize it as revenge spending because we don’t really know to what extent the ability of people to spend will be,” he said, noting some reluctance because the pandemic continues to loom as a threat to growth.
He said however that “cautious revenge spending” can be seen in the improved prospects for retailers.
A spike in government spending will also help drive growth, he added.
He said the Omicron variant of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a risk, but added that the vaccination rollout could support sentiment.
Third-quarter GDP grew 7.1%, against the 12% expansion in the preceding three months, after the government reintroduced lockdowns to curb a Delta-driven COVID-19 surge.
Third-quarter growth was still stronger than expected, prompting both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to raise their full-year economic growth forecasts for the Philippines.
On Tuesday, economic managers raised the government GDP growth projection to 5-5.5% for this year from the downgraded 4-5% goal issued in August. – Jenina P. Ibañez
