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The challenge of Cov-ED

The current pandemic has tested the resilience of almost all the country’s institutions — and found them wanting. Not least affected has been the country’s education system. The prolonged suspension of classes, the abrupt ending of instruction, and the schools’ make-do closures of the school year effectively stopped learning dead in its tracks. While interrupted education may seem a side issue in the face of the more existential threats to life and livelihood, its long-term consequences for the nation’s future cannot be ignored.

If not offset, interrupted education causes lasting scars in the form of delayed or foregone human and social development. Interrupted schooling over prolonged periods (notably during the Cultural Revolution in China and from the 8888 Uprising through the 1990s in Myanmar) shows its impacts in high dropout rates, even after a subsequent chance to return to school; enduring decimated education standards and diminished learning outcomes; and a failure to pursue the full potential of higher education. Teachers of pupils with education gaps face the dilemma of either teaching to prescribed standards but risking the failure of their delayed pupils, or lowering standards to a least common denominator — such as what happens with a universal pass or promotion. In the first case, it is the pupil that fails; in the second, it is society and the education system.

The matter assumes particular urgency for the Philippines whose education deficit was already widely presumed even before the pandemic crisis. This long-held suspicion became a glaring fact with the 2019 PISA results, which showed the country’s 15- and 16-year-olds ranking last in reading and next-to-last in math and science among their peers in the world. The patently inferior product of basic education obviously carries through to technical and higher education, which also face quality issues of their own. Such results will only be amplified under current conditions of educationem interrupta with even smaller chances existing to remedy the already-deficient system.

The extent of the problem — which goes beyond the narrow question of what month to start the school year — becomes evident once one realizes the situation is unlikely to improve much even beyond this already-extended quarantine period. Abnormal and unsettled learning conditions due to the pandemic will likely persist until some effective therapy or vaccine becomes widely available (one to two years being the best guess). Until then, periodic outbreaks and lockdowns in smaller or larger areas of the country remain a real possibility, as already happened in Singapore and Japan, and education institutions must deal with the constant threat of an aborted learning experience. The looming prospect in the meantime is that whole cohorts of Filipino students will receive an education that is diluted, delivered fitfully, and pockmarked with learning gaps.

School owners and administrators are currently still struggling to imagine how the New Abnormal in education might look, specifically how to create a resilient learning environment that maintains standards — or better yet raises them — without sacrificing student health and safety.

The option that represents the least disruption — and which is a persisting view in some official circles — is to wait things out until an acceptably low level of community risk has been attained and then simply to resume the accustomed mode and scale of in-person mass instruction. An important concession even in that situation, however, is the need to undertake massive testing for the virus or its antibodies among students. The biggest downside of this strategy though is that it keeps teachers and students in suspended animation for an indefinite period and therefore abdicates responsibility for the problem of diminishing quality due to interrupted education. Nor is it forward-looking enough to anticipate future disruptions from similar disease outbreaks and calamities. Finally, there is a question whether students and their parents — despite the promise of testing — will feel assured enough to venture into schools amidst uncertainty. Such schemes have been proposed elsewhere (e.g., the US) and may be practicable in small residential schools in college towns where a limited and mostly stationary population can be regularly tested and monitored. The bulk of Metro Manila’s colleges and universities, however, are commuter schools with highly mobile and socially heterogeneous populations. The consequent frequency (and cost) of the testing required to ensure minimal students’ health and safety is sure to strain the capacity of both schools and government. This makes such an option impractical and ineffective — as well as uncertain in its health assurance.

We think the wiser course of action instead is to take the pandemic crisis by the horns and use it as the opportunity to use distance (i.e., not always physically in school) learning — both online and asynchronous — as a second mainstream mode of delivering education. Expanding this capacity seems to be the only recourse that will address the immediate need of resuming a safe learning experience, as well as build the resilience needed against future disruptions. It is curious that the report “An avalanche is coming” [Barber, Donnelly, and Rizvi 2013] appeared some years ago warning traditional universities of the existential threat posed to them by online, distance, and self-paced learning. Most school administrators at the time regarded the idea of MOOCs, blended courses, flipped classrooms, microdegrees, etc. merely as attractive tech-driven options to be considered at a more convenient date. Yet here we are. And as it turns out, distance learning is no longer an option but a necessity.

FREEPIK

For both private education and public policy to seriously consider this option, however, some misconceptions need to be cleared up. And though there are many, three seem especially relevant where — as in most public education — the students have heterogeneous social backgrounds and financial capacities.

First, distance education need not always require a hi-tech capacity for delivery but can be adapted to the circumstances of individual students. While live learning, with an instructor giving feedback, may be ideal and will almost always require a tablet, laptop, or desktop with a good bandwidth connection, other options do exist especially if one considers asynchronous learning (i.e., not involving live communication). For example, pre-developed content may be regularly delivered over television, e-mail, or even periodically retrieved physically from schools, to be studied by students who may then be assessed individually and regularly on what they have learned. As a halfway measure, scheduled visits to physically distanced computer classrooms may give students regular access to online material or tutorials while minimizing exposure to disease. In the meantime, efforts by the government and the private sector should continue to give students cheaper, faster, and in-residence internet access. This may be done through public subsidies or agreements for concessional rates between school consortiums and telecommunications firms. The larger point, however, is that even in the worst case, no particular technology (or the lack of it) should be permitted to interfere with the possibility of education. Technology must serve education needs, not vice versa.

Second, while a major investment involved in distance learning is certainly IT infrastructure (e.g., internet cabling, bandwidth, and learning management systems in schools and internet connectivity from students’ homes), an overlooked cost is the development of content and the training of faculty. Content, for example, must be organized and parsed to be deliverable in distinct modules corresponding to specific learning objectives (e.g., a TED talk is never more than 18 minutes long). On the other hand, teachers should allow each student to absorb this material at her own pace, i.e., learning strategies should be self-paced and allow for individualized paths to mastery. “Chalk and talk” and “rope-a-dope” lectures give way to helping students perform specific tasks and projects to achieve outcomes that demonstrate their competency. The new set of skills (including proficiency in e-learning tools) that will be required of the faculty amounts to no less than a complete mental reset and may represent the biggest hurdle and investment of all.

Finally, it is important to view this refocus not as a stopgap or an exigent response to crisis but as a permanent fixture of the academic environment henceforth. The shift to distance — and increasingly online — learning is a chance to step back from the one-size-fits-all mode of mass instruction and move towards the pedagogical ideal of matching teaching methods and goals to a student’s strengths and weaknesses to help her attain mastery relative to standards.

Indeed, now may be the occasion for schools to take the leap to personalized learning [Marzano et al. 2017] that not only rationalizes traditional academic content delivery but also seeks to develop agency and metacognitive skills in students. Defined as “the capacity and propensity to take purposeful initiative — the opposite of helplessness” [Ferguson 2015], agency would empower students to own their learning goals rather than be passive recipients of instruction. And metacognitive skills (such as goal setting, staying focused, pushing beyond one’s comfort zones, having one’s own standards of excellence, etc.) would provide them the resources to exercise agency that leads to self-efficacy and independence.

This is not merely a “visionary hope.” A growing number of private schools, colleges, and universities, for example, have begun their transformation journeys in their use of learning management systems that can track progress of their individual students by task, by subject, by teacher, and through time. This type of information allows faculty to observe a student’s incipient learning problems and address them both holistically and in a granular way.

The real danger is that not all education institutions see the need for such changes — for lack of skills, content, equipment, and most of all vision — so that the educational system runs the risk of enlarging the gap between those that are well and less provisioned and between those moving towards resilient education systems and those staying put in traditional ways. This turn of events will serve to not only diminish the quality of our human resources and restrain our socio-economic development, but also widen the already gaping social and economic inequities in the country.

 

References

Barber, M., K. Donnelly, and S. Rizvi [2013] “An avalanche is coming: higher education and the revolution ahead.” London: Institute for Public Policy Research. Available here: https://www.insidehighered.com/sites/default/server_files/files/FINAL%20Embargoed%20Avalanche%20Paper%20130306%20(1).pdf

Ferguson, R. (with S. Phillips, J. Rowley, and J. Friedlander) [2015]. “The influence of teaching beyond standardized test scores: Engagement, mindsets, and agency.” Cambridge, Massachusetts: Achievement Gap Initiative at Harvard University.

Marzano, R., J. Norford, M. Finn, and D. Finn III [2017]. A handbook for personalized competency-based education. Bloomington, Indiana: Marzano Resources.

 

Michael M. Alba is president of Far Eastern University and Emmanuel S. de Dios is professor emeritus at the University of the Philippines. Both serve on the board of the Far Eastern University Public Policy Center.

We will survive

Last Wednesday, Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez announced a $29.4-billion stimulus package to fight the negative effects of the coronavirus on the economy.

He assuaged the fears of the public by affirming that the economy is strong enough to absorb the financial shock wrought by the pandemic without significantly deteriorating the country’s economic fundamentals.

Thanks to the recent passage of the TRAIN law, public revenues rose to 16.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year, the highest ratio in 22 years. It will be recalled that it bottomed at only 13.5% during Erap’s time as President. Higher collection of public revenues means more money in our coffers to fight the pandemic.

Further, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is at a new low of 41.5% of GDP. The Philippines has the second lowest debt ratio among ASEAN-6 and this gives us the fiscal room to borrow. Hence, funding for the stimulus package will be sourced from debts and re-appropriations from the national budget. By year end, Secretary Dominguez sees our debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 46.7%, which is still very manageable.

As of last January, the country’s external debts amounted to $83.6 billion while our Gross International Reserves (GIR) amounted to $86.42 billion (now at $89 billion). We have more reserves than we do external debt.

In addition, the Central Bank (BSP) has gradually lowered its reserve requirement rate from 18% last year to just 12% today. This released liquidity in the banking system to be made available for companies and the government to borrow.

Due to increased spending and a decrease in tax collection by some P300 billion due to the crisis, the budget deficit is seen to rise to 5.3% from the government’s previous ceiling of 2.3%. The budget deficit will gradually decline to below 3% by 2022.

Testaments to how strong our economic fundamentals are was the recent offering of a $2.35-billion double tranche of 10-year and 25-year global bonds by the Philippines. The 10-year bonds were priced at 180 basis points above US Treasury Bonds. Meanwhile, the 25-year tranche was priced at 42.5 basis points tighter than the initial pricing guide of 3.37%. What does this mean? It means that although our debts are classified as BBB+ (by S&P), our bonds were taken up as if it were rated “A.” This exemplifies the confidence of the global debt market on the Philippine economy.

Last year, the BSP imposed policies that made banks build their capital bases. This has paid off in spades. Our banking industry is now the healthiest it has been in history and the strongest in ASEAN. It is in the position to fund the government’s financial requirements for the stimulus package.

Loan defaults due to the stoppage of economic activity are not a threat either, said Bong Consing, President of the Bank of the Philippine Islands. Records show that consumer loans only comprise 10% of the banking system’s loan portfolio. Loans to micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) also amount to 10%. So even if there are massive defaults in these categories, it will not be significant enough to displace the banking system. The lion’s share of the loan portfolio consists of loans to government and large corporations — both of which are strong enough to withstand the two month business stoppage.

As of today, the economy is seen to contract by .8% to 0% this year. The contraction can worsen if the enhanced or general community quarantine (ECQ/GCQ) is extended. Note that if the GCQ is extended to a point where the economy contracts by 3%, we will need $100 billion in stimulus funds to restore the economy’s vitality. There is no way we can afford this. A situation like this will set us back by at least three years.

It is not yet certain if the ECQ will be extended or if the GCQ will be activated after May 15. Neither are the guidelines of the GCQ written in stone. According to Secretary Dominguez, the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases is still discussing the GCQ guidelines. Policies relating to the quarantine are fluid. But based on what they have learned with SARS, the contagion begins to wane after three months (this May) and infections begin to flatten after seven months (in September). Only then will we see a semblance of normality.

The government plans to go full blast with its infrastructure program in the second semester to pump-prime the economy. Fortunately, most infrastructure projects are already in their implementation stage with financing in place. With luck, we can avoid a contraction of GDP.

Without an extension of the ECQ, the economy is seen to rebound next year with growth projected at 7.6%. This is due to the stimulus package gaining traction, the “Build, Build, Build” program going full swing, and the low base effect.

As mentioned earlier, the government has appropriated a $29.4-billion stimulus package which represents 8% of last year’s GDP. It will be appropriated this way:

$11.6 billion will be allotted to support vulnerable groups as well as small businesses. Aid will come in the form of cash assistance programs for displaced workers and approximately 18 million low income families; Social Security System (SSS) assistance to cover unemployment benefits; Landbank loans for struggling LGUs; Department of Agriculture assistance for marginalized farmers, fishermen, and micro entrepreneurs; wage subsidies for employees of small businesses; and credit guarantees for MSMEs, among others.

$1.2 billion will be allotted to expand medical capacities and to ensure the safety of our frontliners. This includes the purchase of medical equipment and supplies; the purchase of testing kits; procurement of personal protective equipment; subsidies for patients and health care workers who are infected by the virus; and compensation for additional health workers, among others.

$16.6 billion will be allotted to keep the economy afloat. This includes providing liquidity for the banking system and investments in social and infrastructure programs, among others.

Speaking of support for businesses in distress, Secretary Dominguez made it clear that the national government will not bail out any private enterprise. What it will do, instead, is provide liquidity to the banks to allow them to extend loans to companies that need them. Hence, private companies must still go through the process of loan application with their respective banks.

The good news is that the Banco Sentral temporarily relaxed the credit risk weight for MSMEs from 75% to 50% under the Manual of Regulations for Banks (MRB). In other words, banks are allowed to lend to MSMEs even if the risks are higher than normal.

In addition, the Department of Finance has empowered PhilGuarantee to guarantee as much as P120 billion in emergency loans for companies in distress. Through PhilGuarantee, companies can now borrow even without adequate collateral. The implementing guidelines of this facility will be published by PhilGuarantee next month.

Another form of subsidy for Filipino businesses are the tax breaks built-into the CITIRA bill. While the bill has passed congress, it has been languishing for six months in the senate. Secretary Dominguez made a strong appeal to the Senate to pass CITIRA as it will be a big help to Filipino enterprises. He expressed confidence that the country will be able to navigate this storm with minimal damage to the economy. This should give us confidence for what lies ahead.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

Expertise in the Time of COVID-19

Fellow BusinessWorld columnist Diwa Guinigundo had recently written a column, but for another newspaper, titled “My perspective on some lockdown perspectives” (see Manila Bulletin, April 30). In this column, Diwa criticizes two World Bank papers that emphasize the economic costs arising from lockdowns.

On substance, the gist of Diwa’s argument is that the papers “ignore some realities in poor countries and disregard the nature of the disease itself.” Diwa also underscores the tradeoff that society makes, but that tradeoff, even if guided by technical cost-benefit analysis, is going to be constrained by society’s norms and values.

On style, I have noted how Diwa has crafted his criticisms in a sober, polite, and constructive way. In some instances (or in past columns), he would express his disagreements with others and point out their errors without mentioning their names.

The title of Diwa’s column in fact suggests a state of humility. He offers a perspective, but his perspective is but one of the many perspectives. And his column does not suggest either that his perspective is the definitive one.

This demeanor is very different from the young Diwa I knew. During his student activist days, including the period when he was the editor of the Philippine Collegian and later chair of the quasi Student Council, Diwa was combative and polemical. And up to the late 1990s, Diwa was engaged in intense and polemical debates with others (including my organization, Action for Economic Reforms) on monetary and exchange rate policies.

With Diwa’s column as springboard, it is worth returning to some of the contentious points found in the World Bank articles. The first research paper that Diwa cited is authored by Damien de Walque, Jed Friedman, Roberta Gatti, and Aaditya Mattoo. It is titled “How Two Tests Can Help Contain COVID-19 and Revive the Economy” (April 80). The paper makes a case for the “wide application” of two tests, namely the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay and the rapid antibody test.

The problem is that the paper does not make any critical qualifications about the limitations and risks of the antibody tests. The evidence around the world shows the unreliability of antibody testing. See for example The New York Times, “UK Paid $20 Million for New Coronavirus Tests. They Didn’t Work,” April 16. Or CNN’s “Prominent scientists have bad news for the White House about coronavirus antibody tests,” April 15.

CNN Philippines reported a story on May 1, in which the title says it all: “13 retuning OFWs in Cebu test positive for COVID-19 after testing negative from rapid test in Manila.” Earlier than the stories mentioned above, the Philippine Society for Microbiology (PSMID) published “Should IgM/lgG rapid test kit be used in the diagnosis of COVID-19?” (April 9). One key finding: “Existing guidelines do not recommend serologic antibody tests for the diagnosis of COVID-19 in currently symptomatic patients.”

The second paper that Diwa cites is authored by Norman Loayza and is titled “Smart containment and mitigation measures to confront the COVID-19 pandemic: Tailoring the pandemic response to the realities of developing countries,” April 7. Loayza’s message boils down to: “I have serious doubts about the efficacy of lockdowns.” He enumerates the reasons why lockdowns are ineffective.

Loayza dismisses lockdown as a strategy as a principle. It is a view that revives the neoliberal mindset that is obsessed with a few sacred tools but denies the possible effectiveness of other tools. In Loayza’s case, he makes a dichotomy between lockdown and “smart containment and mitigation measures” (e.g., personal and public hygiene; test, test, test; protection of the most vulnerable). They in fact can go together.

Diwa and I believe in something we learned from our activism: “concrete analysis of concrete conditions.” Lockdown might not be suitable in one country like Sweden (where citizens comply with rules without the need for compulsion and where half of the population live in a single-person household). But it can be a most appropriate strategy in other countries like the Philippines.

An evidence-based study written by Maria Elena B. Herrera, et al., titled “Evaluating Potential Consequences of Alternative Public Responses to the Covid-19 Epidemic in the Philippines” (April 8) states the following: If lockdown or enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) had never been implemented, “about 1.9 million individuals would have required hospitalization, with over 250,000 requiring critical care, and deaths would have exceeded 180,000” in the national capital region.

The pandemic has produced many overnight public health experts. The economists — like those mentioned in Diwa’s column — have become public health experts. The ophthalmologist, just because he is a doctor, thinks he has become a public health expert. The general, perhaps, because he has a degree in science (that is, military science) thinks he has become a scientist and thus has become qualified to be a public health expert.

And here’s the rub. Even a public health expert can err because of a wrong method (e.g., relying on a thin number or a based sample) or because of confirmation bias.

COVID-19 has many unknowns. No one is knowledgeable about the virus and the disease and how people will behave. No one has the answer. Everyone has to listen to one another. Listening nevertheless means giving premium to the facts and the evidence.

The evidence, contrary to what the World Bank writers, the ophthalmologist, and the ex-general claim, is that antibody testing is spotty and risky. Lessons from history (e.g., the Spanish flu of 1918) and current counterfactual evidence show that lockdown has prevented the occurrence of a much higher number of deaths.

But the conduct of science is also underpinned by a normative choice that society makes. For Diwa, it’s about perspectives (note that he acknowledges different perspectives) that “adhere to the fundamentals of protecting lives and public health.”

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph

Asia-Pacific countries must take urgent action to tackle COVID-19’s recession-induced hunger

By Marco V. Sánchez Cantillo

MANY UNCERTAINTIES haunt the world’s campaign to counter the COVID-19 pandemic, but one thing is now sure: Global economic activity will suffer greatly, with large-scale consequences for the incomes and welfare of all, but especially for the most vulnerable food import-dependent countries.

In the absence of timely and effective policy responses, this will exacerbate an already unwelcome increase in the number of people who don’t have enough to eat.

Last year, “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World,” the SDG2 monitoring report that the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) produces in collaboration with other UN partners, warned that economic slowdowns and downturns helped explain rising undernourishment levels in 65 of the 77 countries that recorded such rises between 2011 and 2017. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just slashed its global gross domestic product (GDP) forecast by a huge 6.3 percentage points, making FAO’s analysis all the more relevant as part of a worldwide toolkit to prevent the health crisis from triggering starvation.

In January, the IMF anticipated global GDP would expand by 3.3%, but in April, when much of the world was shutting down to contain the contagion, it issued a new forecast of -3%. Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that is home to the world’s highest hunger rates and where the average age is around 20 years, must now brace for its first recession in a quarter of a century.

Analyzing data of food supply since 1995, linked to FAO’s statistical development of the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) indicator, and correlating them to past local economic trends in countries that are net food importers, we find that millions of people are likely to join the ranks of the hungry as a result of the COVID-19-triggered recession.

That number will vary according to the severity of GDP growth contractions, ranging from 14.4 million to 80.3 million depending on the scenario, with the latter figure a truly devastating contraction of 10 percentage points in all 101 net food-importing countries’ GDP growth.

The actual outcome could be worse if current inequalities in access to food are worsened — something that absolutely should not be allowed to happen.

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

The world is not facing food shortages, which is why FAO has from the pandemic’s outset advocated that all countries must do their best to keep food supply chains alive. With the new estimates emerging from a strictly economic analysis — based on food supply and availability and not other central pillars of food security — FAO is emphasizing that all countries must also foster measures to protect people’s ability to access food that is locally, regionally, and globally available.

The nexus between undernourishment and economic performance was already driving the world away from the goal of eradicating hunger by 2030. FAO’s global PoU number has been rising since 2015, albeit slowly, ending decades of decline. It is now around where it was in 2010, and undernutrition affects one in nine people globally, with much higher rates in large swathes of Africa and Asia.

Governments are rolling out unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus to conserve economic capital and support safety nets for the newly unemployed. Many countries lack the tools to deploy such liquidity injections and public spending commitments. The international community must facilitate their capacity to act, while these countries must exert fiscal responsibility and objectivity to reallocate their own resources along with assistance to the most urgent needs that the COVID-19 pandemic has created. Health is the first priority, but sufficient and healthy food is a central part of the health response to the pandemic. Inadequate action will also severely weaken vulnerable populations for years to come. This would make the prospect of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals all the more difficult.

So not only must efforts focus on keeping food supply chains alive, but it’s imperative to focus on food accessibility for all. Governments have an opportunity to tackle this issue head on by targeting the required official stimulus packages to the poorest and undernourished. Tools such as cash and in-kind transfers, new credit lines, safety nets, food banks, keeping school-lunch programs alive can be useful.

Keep in mind that emphatically focusing on “have nots” will have a doubly positive effect, both helping those most in need and maximizing the impact of public resource outlays on maintaining the dynamism of demand.

There could be a third positive effect as well: Minimizing outright hunger in ways that avoid food insecurity and malnutrition will reduce the long-term scars inflicted by the recession, fostering more vitality and less dependence in the future. Indeed, insofar as possible stimulus measures that tackle the current menace to food access should be designed with a view to start building the resilience of food systems to safeguard them against economic slowdowns and downturns in the future.

 

Marco V. Sánchez Cantillo is the Deputy-Director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

[B-SIDE Podcast] Investing 101: Coronavirus and the Philippine stock market

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The Philippine stock market is trying to recover from its worst drop in eight years. Due to COVID-19, the outlook of the economy is dim and the future is uncertain. According to Philstocks Financial senior research analyst Japhet Tantiangco, there is a silver lining to this volatile situation. In this episode, Mr. Tantiangco takes BusinessWorld reporter Denise A. Valdez through the basics of the stock market and explains how the right strategy will reward neophyte investors who can stomach risk. Recorded remotely on April 20. Produced by Nina M. Diaz, Paolo L. Lopez, and Sam L. Marcelo.

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Soccer-MLS opens up training fields for individual workouts

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Players will be able to use outdoor team training fields for solo workouts from next Wednesday, Major League Soccer said on Friday as the sport takes its first steps towards a return to action following the shutdown forced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Like most North American sport, MLS shuttered operations mid-March and a league wide moratorium on group and team training remains in place through May 15.

Players will not be allowed access to club facilities, including locker rooms, gyms or training rooms.

MLS emphasized that all individual workouts, which are voluntary, must be conducted in compliance with detailed health and safety protocols in consultation with medical and infectious disease experts.

Even just getting back onto the pitch will not be easy.

Teams must first submit to MLS a club-specific plan that outlines how the team will implement protocols.

Individual workouts will be staggered with each player getting a designated parking spot to maintain maximum distance between vehicles.

Players and staff will be screened with temperature checks on arrival and must wear personal protective equipment coming on and off the field, which will be divided into four quadrants with a maximum of one player per quadrant. (Reporting by Steve Keating in Toronto. — Reuters

Gov’t changes mind, bans church and work meetings

By Gillian M. Cortez, Reporter

The government on Friday backtracked on its decision to allow religious and work-related gatherings under a relaxed lockdown in some areas of the country, after some lawmakers and local officials objected to it.
An inter-agency task force discussed the policy and decided to keep the ban on all public gatherings, presidential spokesman Harry L. Roque said at a news briefing.

Some lawmakers and local officials earlier said religious and work meetings could spread the novel coronavirus.
The Department of Health reported 284 new infections on Friday, bringing the total to 8,772.

Eleven more patients died, raising the death toll to 579, DoH said in a bulletin. Forty-one more patients have gotten well, bringing the total recoveries to 1,084, it added.

Mr. Roque earlier said people attending religious services and work-related meetings must observe social distancing to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading.

Minimum health standards must also be met including wearing face masks and shields and hand sanitation, he added.
Under the rules, social distancing of at least a meter between passengers of public transportation will be enforced.

Low- and medium-risk areas will be placed under a more relaxed lockdown starting May 1.

High-risk areas such as Metro Manila, Central Luzon except Aurora, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna Batangas, Rizal and Quezon), Pangasinan, Benguet, Iloilo, Cebu and Davao City will remain under the stricter enhanced community quarantine until May 15.

Bacolod was also included in high-risk areas as proposed by provincial officials.
The movement of people under the general community quarantine will be limited to accessing basic needs and work in permitted industries, Mr. Roque said on Thursday.

Starting May 16, all decisions to impose, lift or extend a community quarantine in provinces, highly-urbanized cities and independent component cities will be made by the inter-agency task force, according to a copy of the rules.

Provincial governors may impose, lift or extend the quarantine in cities and municipalities upon the concurrence of the relevant regional counterpart body of the task force.

Local chief executives of cities and municipalities may also impose, lift or extend the enhanced community quarantine in villages, upon the concurrence of the relevant regional counterpart body of the task force.

President Rodrigo R. Duerte locked down the entire Luzon island on March 17, suspending work, classes and public transportation to contain a COVID-19 outbreak. He has extended this twice — first by two more weeks until April 30 and by two more weeks until May 15 for some parts of the island.

Gov’t allows POGOs to partially resume operations

The government gave the green light for Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs) and their service providers to resume partial operations amid the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila, the Philippine Amusment and Gaming Operations Corp. (PAGCOR) said on Friday.

In a statement on Friday, PAGCOR Chairman and CEO Andrea D. Domingo said the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) approved the regulator’s recommendation to consider POGOs as part of the business process outsourcing (BPO), a sector that has been exempted from strict lockdown protocols.

She said only 30% of POGOs’ workforce will be allowed to operate per shift, provided that they have work permits and have tested negative from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

“Even with the partial resumption of POGO operations, we will put premium on the safety of their employees, and the gaming industry as a whole. While we recognize their huge contributions to nation-building, and their great viability as a funding source in these difficult times, we still have to practice extra precaution in striking a balance between health and economic benefits,” Ms. Domingo was quoted as saying.

Before being allowed to resume operations, POGO service providers will have to settle all their taxes with the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and all other obligations with PAGCOR as of March.

The BIR earlier estimated around P27-billion worth of tax liabilities have not been collected from POGOs.

The online gambling firms will also have to pay the minimum guarantee fee that could reach P300-350 million for the month of April even with no operations, according to Ms. Domingo in a separate radio interview.

She said POGOs will also have to pay the salaries of their Filipino direct employees, estimated at over 31,600, for the month of April and during the days of operation.

POGOs will also implement safety measures such as provision of shuttle services, temperature checks at the office, maintain social distancing, proper sanitation and disinfection, as well as mandatory use of face masks.

“Meanwhile, employees who have confirmed COVID-19 cases, including those who are suspect or probable cases will not be allowed to work. The vulnerable groups, including the sick, immunocompromised, seniors, pregnant women, and those with co-morbidities will not be deployed,” the PAGCOR statement read.

Ms. Domingo said PAGCOR will notify the firms by Monday, and POGO service providers expected to resume operations a week after as they have to meet the requirements first.

POGO employees, whether Filipinos or foreign nationals, should first be tested for COVID-19 and must obtain a negative test result from a testing facility duly-registered with the Food and Drugs Administration.

The company should also establish an isolation room for employees who may start to exhibit COVID-19 symptoms.

Meanwhile, the Accredited Service Providers Association of Pagcor (ASPAP) said its members will comply with the strict conditions of the government.

“To stress a point – POGOs are offshore gaming operators, while POGO service providers are typical Philippine-based BPO companies that are purely paid service fees,” ASPAP said.

Earlier, PAGCOR’s net income plunged 49.8% to P777.44 million in the first quarter from P1.55 billion in the same period last year after casino activities were banned during the lockdown which started in mid-March.

Ms. Domingo has said revenues can recover once the operations are allowed to resume. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Government debt rises in March

The national government’s outstanding debt reached P8.177 trillion as of end-March due to higher issuances of domestic securities, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said.

In a report released Thursday evening, the BTr reported the national government’s debt stock increased by P11.82 billion or 0.1% to P8.177 trillion as of end-March from P8.165 trillion as of end-February. The March figure was also 4.8% higher than P7.8 trillion in March 2019.

Of which, 67% or P5.512 trillion were sourced domestically, while 33% or P2.664 trillion were from external creditors.

The domestic debt stock inched up 1.2% from P5.45 trillion as of end-February and 6.1% higher compared to P5.197 trillion seen in March 2019.

BTr attributed the increase to net issuances of government securities worth P63.07 billion.

External debt as of end-March slipped 1.89% to to P2.664 trillion from P2.716 trillion a month prior, but was 2.3% higher from P2.605 trillion a year ago.

“For March, the decline in external debt was due to the P44.18 billion net repayment of foreign loans and the P7.02 billion collective effect of exchange rate adjustments on both dollar- and third-currency denominated debt,” the national treasury said.

The government is looking at a borrowing mix of between 70:30 and 72:28 Ñ still in favor of domestic lenders to minimize foreign exchange risks and volatility Ñ from its initial target of 75:25 ratio.

Meanwhile, the national government’s guaranteed obligations declined 0.5% month-on-month to P481.82 billion as of end-March, largely due to the P1.92 billion worth net redemption of local and foreign guarantees made.

Broken down, 53% or P254.832 billion were domestic guarantees, while 47% or P226.989 billion were from external sources.

ADJUSTMENT

Meanwhile, the 2019 debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was adjusted downwards to 39.6% using 2018 as the base year compared to the 41.5% reported previously using 2000 prices.

With 2018 as the new base year, last year’s debt stock relative to the economy hit a record-low, slightly declining from the previous years’ levels of 39.9% in 2018, 40.2% in 2017 and 2016, and 42.7% in 2015.

The Duterte administration’s economic team has set a 46.7% debt-to-GDP target this year, which can be translated to 44.95% if rebased using 2018 prices, according to National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon.

Using rebased year, the 2019 GDP was revised to six percent from 5.9% previously.

However, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has yet to release its revised macroeconomic assumptions using the rebased GDP. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Deadline for payment of local taxes extended

The Department of Finance (DoF) has extended the deadline for the payment of taxes, fees and charges to local government units (LGUs) as relief for Filipinos affected by lockdown measures around the country.

Department Circular No. 002-2020 dated April 23 extended the deadline to June 25 for payment of all local taxes, fees and charges as of March 25, with no interest, surcharges and penalties. This is in line with Republic Act No. 11469 or the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act.

In a letter to Department of Interior and Local Government Secretary Eduardo M. Año, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said it was the department’s view that RA 11469’s Section 4 (z) is to be “liberally construed to include all LGUs.” 
 
Mr. Dominguez said the DoF issued the circular to provide a “uniform adoption and implementation” by all LGUs of the extension, after only 146 local governments adopted such measures.

The DoF said the counting of the period to pay local taxes, fees, and charges will also be suspended.

“In the event that an LGU had already extended the deadlines prior to the effectivity of RA 11469, such deadlines shall be deemed modified with the period set forth herein. Any further extension thereof shall be authorized in accordance with the provisions of RA 7160 (Local Government Code),” the circular read.

The DoF also said that “no interest, surcharge or any form of penalty shall be applied on any local tax, fee or charge accruing on or due and demandable” during the extension.
 
However, all previous delinquencies will be due and the accrual of interest, penalties and surcharges will begin after the extension.
 
DoF also ordered local treasurers and assessors to postpone plans to issue written authorities on examination of books of accounts and business records; activities on appraisal and assessment of real properties; posting of notices of delinquencies, warrants of levy and advertisements of auctions; as well as “pursuing administrative or judicial action for the enforcement and/or collection of local taxes, fees, or charges.” — Beatrice M. Laforga

Companies lose P700B on lockdown

By Beatrice M. Laforga
Reporter

BUSINESSES have suffered about P700 billion in revenue losses so far as strict lockdown measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forced companies to halt operations since mid-March, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said on Thursday.

“Based on the surveys we gathered, the effect of COVID-19, primarily because of the ECQ (enhanced community quarantine), is some P700 billion,” NEDA Acting Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said at a Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP) online briefing.

NEDA has conducted three surveys with about 44,000 total responses. The surveys assessed the impact of the pandemic and ECQ on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs); agriculture and fisheries; and consumers.

NEDA Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon in a mobile phone message said the P700-billion losses were from businesses including those in the agriculture sector.

Mr. Chua said the NEDA is preparing more surveys that will assess the impact of the coronavirus crisis on larger enterprises.

NEDA has yet to release the official survey results.

Based on the country’s P18.6-trillion gross domestic product (GDP), Mr. Chua estimated that the economy stands to lose about P1.1 trillion if the economy fails to grow this year.

In a March 19 report, NEDA estimated a cumulative loss of P428.7 billion to P1.35 trillion in gross value added (in current prices), equivalent to 2.1 to 6.6% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

At that time, NEDA said a one-month lockdown in Luzon may result in a loss of gross value added of P298 billion to P1.1 trillion, and job losses of 61,000 to 1 million.

The one-and-a-half month Luzon-wide lockdown has brought over 70% of the Philippine economy to a standstill and forced many businesses to temporarily close or scale down. The strict lockdown was extended until May 15 in Metro Manila and other outbreak hotspots, while some provinces will gradually ease restrictions starting today (May 1).

Q1 GROWTH
Meanwhile, Mr. Chua said there is a “good potential” that the first-quarter GDP could post a growth.

However, downside risks may drag this to a lower-than-expected print largely due to “exogenous shocks” that happened in January-March, the NEDA chief added.

These “shocks” include the eruption of Taal Volcano in late January, the lockdown in China and travel bans that dampened trade and tourism, as well as the start of the Luzon-wide ECQ in mid-March.

‘”We have a good potential to see a positive growth [in the first quarter], but we shouldn’t be surprised if the numbers are not to our best favor,” Mr. Chua said.

First-quarter GDP data will be released on May 7.

Mr. Chua sees the economy bouncing back in the second half as more parts of the country gradually ease lockdown restrictions to a general community quarantine (GCQ), where nonessential businesses can reopen provided they observe safety protocols.

“May 1, you will see many provinces transfer from the ECQ status to the GCQ status, that is I think a very clear indication that we are getting towards the end of the tunnel,” he said.

“I think there is a strong possibility of a rebound by June, so that we can begin with the recovery phase and we will prepare for that very well in the coming weeks,” he added.

But Mr. Chua said the government will take a “very conservative and careful” approach in terms of opening up the economy to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

“We already know the regrets of some countries in the region and the world when they opened up too soon, so we would rather be conservative, and use this time wisely to prepare the health sector, flatten the curve and get ready. So when we do actually fully open up, we will never regret, and we will not see a spike or second wave [of infections],” he said.

Economic managers have said GDP growth may be flat this year at best, or contract by 1% at worst.

Inflation likely slowed further in April — Diokno

HEADLINE INFLATION likely eased further to settle between 1.9% and 2.7% in April, with downside risks mainly coming from plunging oil prices, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said on Thursday.

“The progressive fall in inflation will continue,” Mr. Diokno said in a Viber message to reporters, citing the inflation estimate range from the BSP Department of Economic Research.

Headline inflation settled at 2.5% in March, down from the 2.6% print a month prior to mark the second consecutive month of easing prices. This brought the year-to-date average to 2.7%, which is within the 2-4% target of the BSP.

Mr. Diokno said earlier this week that inflation could average at 2% this year, down from the previous forecast of 2.2% given in March.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will report April inflation data on May 5.

The plunge in global oil prices may have offset upside risks to inflation last month, according to the central bank chief.

“The collapse in oil prices is expected to moderate inflationary pressure coming from higher prices of rice and other food items along with upward adjustment in electricity rates in Meralco (Manila Electric Co.)-serviced areas,” Mr. Diokno said.

“Looking ahead, BSP will remain watchful of economic and financial developments here and abroad to ensure that monetary policy settings remain consistent with price stability conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth,” he said.

Oil prices have plunged since early March as demand collapsed amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. US oil prices even slid into negative territory in mid-April.

But oil rebounded later in the month after some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries vowed to cut production by 10 million barrels per day starting May.

Meanwhile, the farmgate price of palay, or unmilled rice, rose 4.7% week on week to P17.48 per kilogram in the first week of April, with prices down 6.5% year on year, according to the PSA.

In its weekly update on palay, rice and corn prices, the PSA said the average wholesale price of well-milled rice rose 2.96% week on week to P38.59 per kilogram while the retail price went up 2.19% to P42.40.

The average wholesale price of regular-milled rice jumped 2.39% to P34.14 per kilogram while the average retail price increased by 1.35% to P36.86.

On the other hand, consumers in Metro Manila will likely see higher electricity bills in April, Meralco said early last month.

Meralco said the overall electricity rate rose by P0.1050 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to P8.9951/kWh from March’s P8.8901/kWh. Households consuming 300 kWh, 400 kWh, and 500 kWh could expect their monthly bills to rise by P31.50, P42.00, and P52.50, respectively.

The central bank last month cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points in an off-cycle meeting to support economic activity amid the COVID-19 outbreak, saying a slower inflation outlook amid falling oil prices is supportive of this dovish stance.

This brought the key rate or the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 2.75%. Accordingly, interest rates for the central bank’s overnight deposit and lending facility have been trimmed to 3.25% and 2.25%, respectively. These rates are the lowest on record and also since the BSP shifted to an interest rate corridor in 2016.

Mr. Diokno earlier this week said further monetary easing through rate cuts and reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratios remain on the table to ensure economic stability amid the COVID-19 crisis. — L.W.T. Noble