RATES OF THE Treasury bills (T-bill) on offer today will likely end lower following strong demand for short term papers, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut and renewed US-China trade tensions.
The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) is offering P15 billion worth of Treasury bills (T-bill) at its auction today, broken down into P4 billion and P5 billion for the three- and six-month instruments, respectively, and P6 billion in one-year papers.
Traders expect T-bill rates to decline across the board amid strong liquidity and following the US central bank’s move to cut benchmark rates last week.
“We expect it to be around 20 basis points lower as the market recently rallied with the liquidity coming from the last tranche of the rate reserve cut last July… Also, tracking US treasuries which are lower dahil sa rate cut ni Fed (because of the Fed’s rate cut),” a bond trader said in a phone interview on Friday.
“Rates of T-bills for auction could move 30-50 bps (basis points) lower from previous auction amid very strong demand for short term papers,” Kevin S. Palma, Robinsons Bank Corp. peso debt trader, said in a text message on Saturday.
The Treasury made a full award of the T-bills it auctioned off last July 22, raising P15 billion as planned as the offer was almost five times oversubscribed, with tenders amounting to P74.32 billion.
Yields on the three-month, six-month and one-year papers declined to 3.769%, 4.1% and 4.519% at that auction, respectively.
At the secondary market on Friday, the three-month, six-month and one-year T-bills were quoted at 3.818%, 4.046% and 4.151%, respectively, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates publishing on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.
Meanwhile, as widely expected by the market, the Fed decided to trim its policy rates by 25 basis points at its meeting last week, its first in a decade.
However, Mr. Powell said in a news conference following the meeting that the central bank had no plans of adjusting rates further, as the latest cut was only done to adjust to economic conditions.
“There are lot of factors in play here. Despite the Fed delivering a hawkish cut, bond bulls continue to take center stage after US President [Donald] Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese goods, fueling speculations that the Fed may consider easing again in September,” Mr. Palma said.
Mr. Trump announced on Twitter last week that he will impose another round of tariffs on Chinese goods, virtually taxing all of China’s imports to the US.
Mr. Trump met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of G20 summit in Osaka, Japan on late June, wherein both countries agreed to resume trade talks.
The new round of tariffs comes after the world’s two biggest economies met in Shanghai earlier this week that yielded no result.
“Onshore, we are headed for a data-heavy week and with July inflation seen to be tamed, local policy rates may continue to ease as soon as the August 8 Monetary Board meeting,” Mr. Palma added.
Inflation likely slowed further in July as food prices sustained a decline, analysts said in a BusinessWorld poll, adding that this will give the central bank space to resume trimming interest rates.
A poll of 17 analysts and a research group yielded a 2.4% median estimate for July inflation, within the midpoint of the 2-2.8% estimate range given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and slower than June’s 2.7% print.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official inflation data tomorrow.
Following expectations of easing inflation, market watchers asked in a separate BusinessWorld poll said the BSP will likely trim policy rates this week, with 16 respondents expecting a 25-bp rate cut when the central bank’s policy-setting Monetary Board meets on Thursday for its fifth review this year.
BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno earlier said central bank will likely cut policy rates this semester before moving to reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) further.
After a 100-bp RRR cut across all banks on May 31, the BSP trimmed the reserve ratios of universal and commercial lenders and thrift banks by another 50 bps last June 28 to 16.5% and 6.5%, respectively.
Another 50-bp reduction was implemented last July 26, bringing the reserve quotas of big banks to 16% and thrift banks to 6% and completing the phased cuts the BSP announced in May.
The government is set to borrow P230 billion from the domestic market this quarter through T-bills and Treasury bonds.
It is looking to raise P1.189 trillion this year from local and foreign sources to fund its budget deficit, which is expected to widen to as much as 3.2% of gross domestic product. — B.M. Laforga