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Let’s talk about drugs

Okay, the President has to issue EO 104 because of RA 9502.
But can Health Secretary Duque focus right away on implementing Section 4 of the EO?

We have apparently been so absorbed by COVID-19 and community quarantines over the past four months that the price controls on medicines and drugs that loomed in the last days of January slipped by unnoticed.

When I learned about the plan in late January, I wrote about market friendly ways of reducing medicine prices in my BW Introspective opinion of Jan. 27. At that time, President Rodrigo Duterte was still weighing Health Secretary Francisco Duque’s recommendation to impose price caps on pharmaceutical products.

President Duterte did approve Secretary Duque’s draft, now known as EO 104, on Feb. 17. Its impact was sidelined not by COVID-19, but by a 90-day grace period that allowed existing suppliers to dispose of their inventory at prevailing prices. That window closed last week.

What’s in the order? It imposed price caps on 133 medicines and drugs: 22 anti-hypertensives, 28 anti-diabetic drugs; 18 neoplastic and anti-cancer medicines; 16 immunosuppressant formulations; 11 analgesics; eightanti-asthmatic and chronic obstructive pulmonary (COPD) disease preparations; seven anticoagulants; three antianginal medicines; three agents affecting bone metabolism; three antiemetics; two psoriasis, seborrhea, and ichthyosis preparations; three antidepressants; and nine other medicines and drugs.

These pharmaceutical products meet any of the four following criteria set by the Department of Health (DoH): 1.) they address the health priorities of the general public especially those that account for the leading causes of morbidity and mortality; 2.) they have high price differentials/arbitrage compared to international prices; 3.) they have limited competition in terms of lack of generic counterparts or lack of market access to these products; and, 4.) they are innovator products which are most expensive yet most prescribed.

EO 104 imposes caps on both wholesale and retail prices.

All of us would like to see lower medicine prices in our country. In our healthcare system that is predominantly private sector-oriented, out of pocket costs particularly on medicines are about 50% of total. It is very likely that the majority of us could not afford the medicines our doctors prescribe.

Price controls would, however, bring more problems than benefits to patients. Like price controls imposed on other consumer items, which politicians are prone to price cap such as housing and food items, in the long run E.O. 104 would dry up the supply of medicines and drugs, reduce our country’s access to innovative pharmaceutical products, and would ultimately undermine the overall quality and integrity of the local pharmaceutical market.

If the purpose of the EO is to reduce out-of-pocket costs of medicines and make it more accessible to all of us, this short-term benefit would not be sustained. In the longer term, suppliers would be disincentivized by price controls, reducing the quantity supplied of these price-capped pharmaceutical products.

When supply gets scarce, black markets of medicines start to co-exist with formal markets. Patients start to search for suppliers of the medicines they need. The added search costs effectively raise access costs of patients to medicines and drugs.

Even the rich among us, who could import medicines abroad in desperation would likewise have added access costs. No formal private businesses, Filipino or multi-national, would import drugs and medicines because of price controls. If they cannot pass on to the market the real costs of these products, they would not be supplying these items.

Accordingly, importation would continue but inefficiently and at a higher cost. In the long run, the lower prices that EO 104 orders would not be sustained. It may not be farfetched to expect hearing in the not so distant future these same words, which we had heard from say a seller of rice, meats or fish in wet markets at prices set by the trade and industry or agricultural departments, “go and buy these medicines from the DoH at government prices.”

Secondly, price caps would undermine: the quality of the medicines and drugs sold locally. When the local market of price-capped pharmaceutical products gets to co-exist with black markets of badly needed drugs and medicines, the Food and Drug Administration would be unable to guarantee pharmaceutical quality.

This could be similar to the early years of the generics law, when patients were not enthusiastic over buying generic drugs and medicines because of their uncertain quality. When this problem occurs thanks to the EO 104, medicines cost would even shoot up because patients would have to pay additional cost in black markets to ensure quality.

Thirdly, all of the innovative medicines are manufactured abroad. Innovators price their medicines and drugs higher because they are recouping their investments in developing these innovative medicines and drugs. International and our national intellectual property laws do allow them to have a monopoly of selling the innovative drugs for about 21 years, for them to recover their R&D costs.

One of the DoH’s four criteria in selecting the drugs and medicines to be included in the EO is that the product is innovative, most prescribed, and priced highly. If price controls would not let these innovators recover their costs in our local market, our country may no longer be their priority market for the release of these innovative medicines and drugs. Just consider the implication of that when we need vaccines for COVID-19 in a year or two, and none are coming here because of price controls.

Fourthly, EO 104 may have disastrous effects on the supply chain of drugs and medicines. In the supply chain are giant retailers (or perhaps just one with more than half of the local retail market) of pharmaceutical products. Suppliers know that, and take care they would not incur the ire of these large retailers. With retail prices capped, it is expected that big retailers would just pass on to suppliers the burden of price controls by telling suppliers to price their products at wholesale prices set by the large retailers.

The incidence of the burden of price controls are likely to fall on suppliers, aggravating the disincentive effect of price controls on the supply of medicines and drugs, hastening the drying up of the local pharmaceutical market.

But let’s look at the smaller retailers in the provinces. They do not have the same market power as the large retailers and their locations require higher distribution costs. Suppliers in this case may be able to pass on the burden of price controls to smaller retailers. The incidence of price controls would then be shared by suppliers and the smaller retailers in the regions. But the former could weather the problem better than the latter, who would get squeezed between the price cap on retail prices of medicines and drugs, and the pass on costs of price controls to them by suppliers.

This could destroy the supply chain in the regions, reducing access to medicines and drugs of our people in those areas.

Is this then the reason why wholesale prices are likewise capped? To protect the smaller retailers in the region? Likely. But if suppliers are not getting a good net return from a regional market, they may just skip those markets. This may hasten the demise of small retailers.

According to some suppliers and a distributor, some small retailers did close shop in 2009, when price controls on medicines were first imposed.

Fifth, delivery delays of medicines would also occur. There are two major supply chain distributors linking the suppliers to the hospitals and other health care institutions, and pharmaceutical retailers. Both are experienced in the distribution of medicines and drugs. Because of them, the private sector led-supply chain is relatively efficient.

Their revenues are proportionate to the wholesale prices of suppliers. With lower wholesale prices, distributors’ revenues fall and with distribution costs remaining the same, their net incomes get squeezed. I talked to the CEO of one of these distributors. In the price cap in 2009, his company lost about P10 billion. The price cap then was less than 10% of the scale of EO 104.

With expected larger losses, these distribution companies would have to re-think their business model. One possibility is they may carve off their businesses to focus on outlets where they can make money — another reason why access to medicines may shrink because of price controls.

There is, however, one redeeming section of the EO, Section 4. It says “The DoH, in consultation with relevant government agencies, including the DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) and the Philippine Competition Commission, is hereby directed to study and propose measures, including, but not limited to pooled procurement, price negotiation, and other mechanisms, which will influence the supply, demand and expenditure on drugs and medicines, in accordance with RA No. 9502, and other relevant laws and regulations.”

Secretary Duque, let’s attend to this now, before these long-term negative effects (effects one through three) and the contemporaneous destructive effects on the supply chain of medicines and drugs in the country (effects four and five) of EO 104 become irreversible.

 

Ramon L. Clarete is a professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics.

COVID-19 as our ‘number one problem’

Said President Rodrigo Duterte:  “Perhaps our number one problem today is COVID.”

The President is tentative in his pronouncement by adding the adverb “perhaps” in his statement. His tentativeness is unusual; his unforgettable statements are marked with an air of boldness and an appearance of certainty. Some examples:

“Slaughter them.”

“Give me salt and vinegar, and I’ll eat his liver.”

“I don’t care if I burn in hell for as long as the people I serve live in paradise.”

So let me revise the President’s statement, by removing the modifier “perhaps.”

Our number one problem is COVID. Period. This statement frames the state of the nation.  Said another way, to borrow the language of the Left, the principal contradiction of Philippine society (and of the world, for that matter) is between the people and COVID-19.

The implication of this is that regardless of our ideological, political, religious, ethnic, and other affiliations, we all have to unite to fight and beat COVID-19.

Vice-President Leni Robredo has a firm grasp of this problem. Said in the early stage of COVID-19 transmission in the Philippines, Vice-President Leni’s video message was unequivocal:  Panahon ito ng pagtutulungan, hindi bangayan…. Binibigkis tayo ng isang layunin; kailangan nating magkaisa. [The time calls for cooperation, not hostility…. We are bound by one purpose; we have to unite.]

Some of the President’s men are blind to the call for unity. Recall the act of then Anti-Corruption Commissioner Manuelito Luna who asked the National Bureau of Investigation to probe the Vice-President’s initiatives in responding to the pandemic. It is to the credit of the President that he ordered the firing of Mr. Luna as Commissioner of the Presidential Anti-Corruption Commission for the unwanted statement. He appreciated the Vice-President’s cooperation to fight COVID-19.

This could have been the cue for unity and collective action. But the President, it seems, thrives in creating conflicts. To quote fellow columnist Diwa Guinigundo, the President is “picking untimely fights.”

The killing of suspects in the illicit drug trade continues. The all-out war against the Communist Party and radical activists is merciless, even resulting in the death of non-combatants. The administration has likewise divided and polarized society by threatening the media and denying ABS-CBN a broadcasting franchise; by allowing an anti-terror law to pass in a context where trust in the police and the military is low; and by launching a campaign for Charter change and term extension.

The art (or science) of war informs us to focus on the principal enemy. Thus during World War II, the forces of the “free world” and communism set aside incompatible differences and united to defeat the common main enemy that was fascism. In China, the warring Communist Party and the Kuomintang forged a united front to fight the Japanese aggression and occupation. In the Philippines, during the period of Martial Law, the communists and the anti-communist bourgeois democrats had tactical alliances to effectively fight the Marcos dictatorship.

COVID-19 undeniably is “the number one problem” today. It behooves us, especially the political administration, to avoid division in order to target the main enemy that is COVID-19.

The need for cooperation has all the more become urgent in the wake of the sharp spike in the COVID-19 transmission. Do note that it is in the most polarized countries like the US, Brazil, and India where a rampaging COVID-19 is overwhelming society.

Here, it is worth quoting the abstract of a preprint (forthcoming in the Canadian Journal of Political Science) titled  “A Rare Moment of Cross-Partisan Consensus: Elite and Public Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada,” authored by Eric Merkley, Aengus Bridgman, et al.:  “Effectively containing the pandemic requires a societal consensus. However, a long line of research in political science has told us that polarization tends to occur on highly salient topics because partisans ‘follow the leader.’ Elite consensus is thus essential to fight the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. We examine the degree of partisan consensus that exists in Canada at the level of political elites and the mass public…. Elite and public response to the COVID-19 pandemic can be characterized as a cross-partisan consensus.”

Sadly this kind of consensus is still absent in the Philippines. But it is not yet too late to have that elite and public consensus, a necessary condition to defeat our number one problem.

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph

The leaning Tower of Babel

The Cyber Libel Law, or formally, the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012, has caused more confusion than the clarification it should have given the libel laws of the Philippines through their evolution and refinement since the Revised Penal Code was enacted in the 1930s. The chaos is most pathetic in this restrictive time of the coronavirus pandemic, when limited human communication and interaction has forced people’s concentration on the internet — now the most convenient, and at times the only, means of talking to the outside world from imposed isolation.

The allegory of the Biblical Tower of Babel comes forth in this confusing time. The chilling lesson of human pride building its hierarchic ziggurat of layered reputations for one to reach Heaven first, by whatever means including stepping on others’ shoulders, can be seen as parallel to the quarrels of libel and slander in our modern times. “Come, let us build ourselves a city and a tower with its top in the sky, and so make a name for ourselves; otherwise we shall be scattered all over the earth,” the descendants of Noah said (Genesis 11:4). They had gone down from the Ark as it was beached on the mountain after the Great Flood receded, and went from the East (figuratively the Garden of Eden) towards the West (Babylonia), symbolic of degeneration from the cleansed state (after the Flood) to mundane temptations from the exercise of free will and individual differentiation and competition. It was about pride and reputation.

In the beginning “The whole world had the same language and the same words,” it is said in Genesis 11:1. But in the 18 years (estimated by some Bible historians) building the Tower of Babel with its many rooms (like a high rise condominium), quarrels started among the descendants of Noah, much like the story of George Orwell’s Animal Farm, where organization and administration schematics were being drawn for that aimed-for perfection in governance, but thwarted by individual selfishness.

God saw that they were bickering and maligning each other, and in His omniscience saw that their hearts were stricken with the sin of Pride — they wanted to be God — may the best man win. “So the Lord scattered them from there over all the earth, and they stopped building the city. That is why it was called Babel, because there the Lord confused the speech of all the world. (Genesis 11:8-9).

The curse of the Tower of Babel is what drives defamation laws of the world, to protect persons and their reputations from libelous or slanderous declarations of others. Juxtaposed are the freedoms of speech and of the press — basic human rights in democratic societies, drawing from the philosophical free will and intellect that direct life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness — from the break-out of the forced colonization of the Great Flood, when the Tower of Babel toppled and spilled the multi-lingual peoples of the new world. Different views ensued, resolved by ubiquitous politics.

There is always something that suffers in the translation, many have said only too often. And yet miscommunication can be an honest mistake, but a lie cannot ever be pardoned or easier forgotten for its affront to its recipient, be it an individual or to the public. The laws of defamation ask for motivation for the identifiable offense (publication, or at least 3rd person witness), and that is hard to establish by the affronted, and illogical for the libeler or slanderer to admit to. For this reason, many countries (like the US) have reduced libel to civil cases (guilt by a preponderance of evidence) from the earlier category of criminal cases or sins against the state/people establishing guilt by proof beyond reasonable doubt. In the Philippines, Libel is still a criminal case, although that may be good or bad depending on which side you are on — it is difficult to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the alleged defamation was motivated to defame, with no basis, or an outright lie. For the alleged libeler, “Truth is my defense,” but truth has to be proven with sources and evidence beyond reasonable doubt.

In newspapers and other media, the intrinsic element of publication constituting libel is most potentially incriminating. The journalistic What, When. Where, Why and How must be answered by the article, supported by evidence (it is actually occurring, or witnessed personally). So easily, “Truth is my defense,” the reporter can say. But of course “slant” can be suspected of the journalist — who can choose what elements of the story to emphasize, and details to omit or not tie up with an unspoken but implied conclusion. Biases, even subconscious preferences, especially on the higher level of values and personal principles cannot be avoided, though straight journalism must by professional ethics be objective and show both sides of an issue, if there is one, built into the story. Investigative journalism must have the integrity of truth.

For opinion writers/live media hosts, opinion which is slanderous, outright libelous or in any way defamatory is his/her own lookout, as the network or station always declares such opinion as separate and distinct to the writer/speaker and not shared by the company or its other employees and contractors. Freedom of speech and of the press is raised high with closed fists, and often closed minds in this area. Proceed at your own risk with libel and the law.

At the webinar “Libel and the Law” last week, motivations, two sides to an issue, proof beyond reasonable doubt, and difficulties with libel laws were discussed alongside technicalities of the law like the overriding prescriptive period within which to file libel cases. The audience was the restricted and isolated masses in coronavirus modified community quarantine, assumed to be already over-saturated with related news on the issues of the Cybercrime Prevention Law, the ABS-CBN franchise revocation, the warrantless arrests of the Anti-Terrorist Act, amidst updates on the rising numbers of COVID-19 contamination, deaths, and recoveries. The webinar focused on the technical incongruences of the decision of Judge Rainelda Estacio-Montesa, who convicted Rappler CEO Maria Ressa and former Rappler researcher Reynaldo Santos, Jr. for cyber libel committed in 2014 on Wilfredo Keng, a businessman and the private complainant, who was reportedly under surveillance for human trafficking and drug smuggling in 2012.

“The (Cyber Crime) Law should be stabilizing, but it is now the cause of dissention,” said lawyer Geronimo Sy, main speaker at the webinar. He pointed out that the CyberCrime Prevention Act started in 2008 with discussions on spam and other internet fraud, and lay quite dormant in Congress until 2012 when legislators decided hurriedly “to include at the last minute cyber libel, because (some) legislators were being pilloried in the media” at that time. Related law is the Bayanihan Act of 2020, which deals with “Fake News,” mostly on social media, also hastily put together by our legislators, Mr. Sy said. He stressed that “libel laws should once and for all be re-hashed and consolidated.” His parting words were, “Fair criticism should be OK and the higher an official goes, the official should be able to take it. Legislators are not able to account for bad laws.”

Retired Supreme Court Senior Justice Antonio T. Carpio, a panelist at the “Libel and the Law” webinar, emphasized two points: First, the 12-year prescription period is the “overriding issue in the Rappler case.” Cyber libel is not a new case but the same as a traditional libel case with merely a new medium/method (the computer, internet). The one-year prescriptive period for filing holds for cyber libel as it has for all libel cases since the Revised Penal Code of 1932 to now. The disputed Rappler article was published May 2012, which means complainant Wilfredo Keng had the right to sue only until May 2013. After Rappler corrected a typo in the story in February 2014, Keng then had the chance to sue until February 2015 (Rappler, June 16, 2020).

Justice Carpio’s second point, the elusiveness of social media and the internet: what of online newspapers and postings, when authors are sometimes anonymous or use aliases? The editors/publishers should verify news or claims and declarations — ultimately, the editors/publishers are liable. And finally, on the burden of proof in a libel case: in the libel of a private person, the burden of proof is on the libeler; in the libel of a public person, the burden of proof is on the public person.

Marites Vitug, veteran journalist and co-founder of Newsbreak magazine, and panelist at the same webinar, took up from Justice Carpio’s last statement on the public accountability of government officials. She had libel cases filed against her by at least five public persons in the terms of three presidents: Corazon Aquino, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Some are under arbitration, some still ongoing.

The allegory of the Tower of Babel persists in today’s quarrels for standing and reputation. The Tower leans, and again threatens to keel. Why do laws have to be so politicized?

 

Amelia H. C. Ylagan is a Doctor of Business Administration from the University of the Philippines.

ahcylagan@yahoo.com

The full economic impact of the virus

The full economic impact of the Wuhan pandemic is still unravelling. As we go from month to month, we are discovering that the ramifications are worse than we thought.

The Asset Management Group of BDO recently presented its prognosis before the members of the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines. It was not a pretty picture — in fact, it was rather bleak.

Although the statistics for the second quarter have not yet been published by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), the country’s biggest bank has determined that the economy contracted by as much as 15.4% during that period. And since the quarantine has spilled-over through the third quarter in NCR, Calabarzon and the Central Visayas (which comprises two-thirds of gross domestic product), the third quarter is seen to post another contraction of 6.7%. Negative growth will ease to 1% in the fourth quarter, but this is on the assumption that quarantine is relaxed. All these will result in a whole year contraction of 5.9% for 2020.

The four successive quarters of negative growth have officially put the country in a state of recession. The last time we experienced such deep economic reversals was in 1984 and 1985 when the economy withered in size by 7.3% for two consecutive years. While it took the country 25 years to recover from the economic havoc of the 1980s, economists believe that we can regain our strong pre-COVID fundamentals in less than five years. This is on the proviso that a vaccine is discovered next year and that the government rolls-out its P1.7-trillion stimulus package as planned. Household consumption, government consumption, and public and private construction will fuel the recovery.

As of today, however, BDO sees a long and slow U-shaped recovery. It predicts growth in 2021 will be only 3.3% and 4.5% in 2022 (the latter is the estimate of the Ateneo Business school). The slow recovery is due to delays in government spending, sustained unemployment, and an anticipated second-wave lockdown.

The painful reality is that despite having appropriated P1.7 trillion to stimulate the economy and provide immediate relief to sectors in distress, the government has failed to cascade the lion’s share of the funds for their intended purpose. This is due to the lack of absorptive capacities of government institutions, inefficiency in operations, and, to a lesser extent, corruption. For instance, the majority of small and medium sized enterprises (SME) have yet to obtain access to credit and emergency loans. The majority of the 400,000 returning OFWs have yet to receive their cash assistance. Funds appropriated for training and livelihood of SMEs is hardly felt. Even infrastructure spending, the sector counted on by the government to stimulate the economy, is lagging behind. Again, I emphasize, government spending is key to a quick recovery.

The pandemic has so far driven 7.911 million Filipinos into unemployment. Add to this 400,000 OFWs who have returned and another 300,000 who are expected to be repatriated. By the end of the third quarter, unemployment will likely hit 9 million.

Meanwhile, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said that more than 2,000 firms have already declared bankruptcy and have closed permanently (this number is massively understated). With so many companies going belly up due to the lack of government subsidies, who, then, will absorb the 9 million unemployed when conditions improve? This is the conundrum we face.

Exacerbating matters further is that surviving companies have implemented cash saving measures to arm themselves against the uncertainties of the pandemic. Capital expenditures (business expansion) have been slashed if not put on hold. There are no new jobs. On the contrary, we can expect more retrenchments.

This is why experts believe our recovery will be long and slow.

We are a consumer-driven economy with 72% of economic output attributed to private consumption. Consumption plunged by 15.1% in the second quarter and is seen to stay in negative territory in the 3rd and 4th quarters at a rate of 8.2% and 3.2%, respectively.

Manufacturing output dropped by 44% (PMI from 140 to 78) from February to March. It improved minutely in May. Manufacturing companies are operating at an average of 30% capacity today.

Fixed capital dropped by 55.2% in the second quarter due to the stoppage of work. A cause for worry is that Build, Build, Build is not yet in full swing in the 3rd quarter. This is why BDO anticipates a further shrinkage in fixed capital by 14.7% and 6.4% in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively.

Hardest hits are retail, wholesale, recreation (arts and sports), and tourism activities, which dropped by 84% in the early days of the quarantine. Even the DTI admits that establishments that are operating today only realize an average of 10% of their pre-COVID sales. Without government support or subsidies, thousands of retailers, wholesalers, restaurateurs, hotels and entertainment enterprises will either close their doors permanently or downsize massively.

Government borrowings to combat the pandemic have reached P386 billion ($7.73 billion) as of this writing. The aggressive borrowing will cause our fiscal deficit to deteriorate from 8.4% to 10%, worst case.

As far as the stock market is concerned, the collective value of stocks dropped by 19.8% during the early days of the quarantine. Listed companies were trading at an average of 9.3 times their price-earnings. Values have since recovered. BDO sees the PSE Index ending at 6,600 this year.

On the positive side, Inflation is seen to be benign at 2.3% this year due to low oil prices and low interest rates. BDO sees the peso emerging as the strongest currency in the region. It has already appreciated by 2.4% in the first seven months of the year due to the low demand for dollars. The peso’s value against the US dollar should be in the region of P49.70 by year end. Gross International Reserves are healthy at $93 billion, sufficient for 8.5 months of imports. This is because the Banco Sentral has stepped up its borrowings to beef up its war chest versus the pandemic.

Government holds the key to our recovery. It will be long and slow if nothing changes. It can be quick if it does four things: 1.) save our entrepreneurs from bankruptcies; 2.) cascade the stimulus package as planned; 3.) go full blast with Build, Build, Build; and, 4.) restore consumer confidence by isolating the quarantine to barangay level, not whole cities. Let’s hope the government ticks all the boxes.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

Korea’s elite contact tracers show the world how to beat COVID-19

IN May, when a coronavirus outbreak hit nightclubs in the South Korean capital of Seoul, health officials quickly unleashed their version of the Navy Seals — elite teams of epidemiologists, database specialists and laboratory technicians.

An old-school, shoe-leather investigation showed the virus had jumped from a night-club visitor, to a student, to a taxi driver and then alarmingly to a warehouse employee who worked with 4,000 others.

Thousands of the employee’s co-workers, their family members and contacts were approached and 9,000 people were eventually tested. Two weeks later, the warehouse flareup was mostly extinguished and infections curtailed at 152.

The work of such so-called Immediate Response Teams offers a look at how South Korea — once the second-worst hit by the coronavirus — has succeeded in largely quelling its spread without the lockdowns that have derailed lives worldwide. At a time when cities from Los Angeles to Melbourne to Tokyo are grappling with resurgences, South Korea’s playbook offers one of the most successful blueprints yet for containing a disease that’s killed more than 600,000 worldwide.

The tally of new cases in the Asian country — which pioneered the testing blitz strategy — has never fallen to zero, but the number of daily new cases have largely ranged from 30 to 60 for two months after peaking at more than 800 in February. Compare that with Los Angeles county, which added 2,014 cases on Thursday alone.

South Korea’s strategy is also a contrast with the harsh shutdowns instituted in parts of China or the tourism blockade implemented by New Zealand in an attempt to completely stamp out the virus. The Asian nation meticulously targets dangerous hotspots and then simply allows most people to lead lives and run businesses unimpeded.

“We step in when there’s a chance of large-scale transmission and our main work is to find the connecting links between cases and prevent a flareup,” said Kwon Donghyok, deputy scientific director at the country’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who oversees the investigative squads. “Finding potential contacts and investigating the cause of infection are the backbone of what we do.”

The country now has one of the lowest rates for infections with unknown origin, at about 8%, compared to more than 50% for other countries with recent virus resurgences. Flareups have shrunk from a weekly average of about a dozen to less than six this week.

SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY
South Korea has a successful strategy because it learned from the bitter experience of the past, something Western countries didn’t have the benefit of. The bulk of its more than 14,000 cases and nearly 300 deaths are related to the flareup at a religious sect in February and March. Since then, processes developed after the country’s 2015 outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome have helped it prevent a second wave of the new coronavirus.

South Korea’s CDC has about 100 epidemiology investigators, up from just two during the MERS outbreak. During a large potential outbreak, several are pulled for the Immediate Response Team, which usually has about six to eight members.

On any given day, officials investigate potential flareups at diverse locations from church group gatherings to clubs for badminton or exotic cars. Infections at low-risk facilities are first handled by municipal health officials, while an Immediate Response Team is called in for high-risk locations.

Other nations have also taken steps to trace contacts and widen testing, with countries like Taiwan and Germany successfully screening to curb the virus. But some have had more difficulty recently. Infections in Melbourne spiked to a record this month because its efforts weren’t suitably designed for its migrant population. India has had some success in following contacts and curtailing an outbreak in the Mumbai slum of Dharavi, but replicating that across the breadth of a country with 1.3 billion people has proven to be hard.

“The key strength of South Korea’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is its ability to do a thorough epidemiology investigation on every patient,” said Jung Ki-suck, a former CDC director and now professor at Hallym University Medical Center, referring to the detailed public health tracing conducted by officials. “The epidemiology investigation has never been so important because we can reduce the size of outbreaks and even block new cases from occurring.”

That exhaustive and meticulous investigation strategy paid off when investigators were able to trace the warehouse outbreak after following a flareup at nightclubs in the trendy Itaewon neighborhood, said Kwon, who investigated the MERS outbreak and was in Rio de Janeiro to investigate potential outbreak of the Zika virus during the 2016 Olympics.

The CDC discovered that a nightclub visitor who was a private tutor spread the virus to one of his students. The student, who was unaware of the infection, used a coin-operated karaoke room, transmitting the virus to a taxi-driver singing in an adjoining room.

The taxi-driver also worked as a part-time photographer and took photos of a birthday party at a buffet restaurant in the area where the distribution center is located.

Through surveillance footage and mobile phone records, investigators contacted everyone who had been at the restaurant around the time of the birthday party. Among those who were infected at the restaurant was a woman who had worked for a day at the warehouse.

To be sure, some of the tactics used in South Korea, which has a population of about 51 million, might be difficult to replicate in vastly populated emerging countries. And the Asian country has benefitted from surveillance technology that might not be acceptable to citizens of many Western nations.

Tracing potential contacts in South Korea involved reviewing hundreds of hours of surveillance camera footage and going through mobile phone and credit card transactions. So-called CCTVs are ubiquitous in South Korea as virtually all streets and workplaces have them.

“Other countries simply don’t have the capacity to do these thorough investigations on patients,” said Jung, the former CDC director. “We had a smaller absolute number of cases than other nations, but more importantly, the social norm, where people are okay with their privacy being infringed for the wider public interest, allowed comprehensive investigations, which is just unimaginable in western countries.”

South Korea has said it’s expecting some spike in cases among construction workers returning from virus hit Iraq and more cases from a Russian ship at one of its ports. While those are mostly imported cases brought in from the outside, South Korea’s virus squad knows how tenuous its gains are, and the importance of vigilance. Many countries, including Asia’s financial capital, Hong Kong, have successfully beaten back the virus for months, only to see it make a sudden comeback.

“Any mass infections we have witnessed have happened in the blink of an eye,” Kwon said. “If we miss a tiny piece of a link or let a small detail slip by, we’ll for sure be experiencing a resurgence in cases.” — Bloomberg

North Korea’s Kim declares lockdown in border town

SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared an emergency and a lockdown in a border town after a person suspected of being infected with the novel coronavirus returned from South Korea after illegally crossing the border, state media said on Sunday.

If confirmed, it would be the first case officially acknowledged by North Korean authorities.

Kim convened an emergency politburo meeting in response to what he called a “critical situation in which the vicious virus could be said to have entered the country,” the North’s KCNA state news reported.

A person who defected to South Korea three years ago returned across the fortified border that divides the two Koreas to the town of Kaesong this month with symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, KCNA reported.

“An emergency event happened in Kaesong City where a runaway who went to the south three years ago, a person who is suspected to have been infected with the vicious virus returned on July 19 after illegally crossing the demarcation line,” KCNA said.

KCNA did not say if the person had been tested, but said an “uncertain result was made from several medical check-ups of the secretion of that person’s upper respiratory organ and blood,” prompting officials to quarantine the person and investigate anyone he may have been in contact with.

One analyst said the announcement was important, not only because North Korea was for the first time reporting a suspected coronavirus case but also because it suggested it was appealing for help. 

“It’s an ice-breaking moment for North Korea to admit a case,” said Choo Jae-woo, a professor at Kyung Hee University.

“It could be reaching out to the world for help. Perhaps for humanitarian assistance.”

North Korea is under huge economic pressure because of international sanctions over its nuclear program.

Cho Han-bum, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said it was significant that North Korea was reporting its first suspected coronavirus case was imported.

“North Korea is in such a dire situation, where they can’t even finish building the Pyongyang General Hospital on time. Pointing the blame at an ‘imported case’ from South Korea, the North can use this as a way to openly accept aid from the South,” Cho said.

KCNA did not elaborate on how the “runaway” had crossed one of the world’s most heavily guarded borders but said the incident was being investigated and the military unit responsible would face “severe punishment.”

South Korean officials were checking to see if a defector had indeed crossed back into the North this month, the South’s Yonhap news agency reported.

North Korea has received thousands of coronavirus testing kits from Russia and other countries and imposed strict border closures.

Thousands of people in North Korea were also quarantined as it took precautions to prevent a coronavirus outbreak but restrictions had recently been eased. — Reuters

Italy’s Lombardy region denies allegations of fraud over COVID medical gear

MILAN — The governor of Lombardy, the Italian region hardest hit by the coronavirus, denied wrongdoing on Saturday after he was placed under investigation for suspected fraud over a supply of medical equipment from a company owned by his brother-in-law.

Magistrates are investigating Attilio Fontana, 68, a member of the right-wing League party, over a 250,000 euro payment to the company, in which Mr. Fontana’s wife has a 10% stake, Fontana’s lawyer Jacopo Pensa confirmed on Saturday.

Pensa told reporters Mr. Fontana denied wrongdoing.

The Lombardy region had ordered 75,000 surgical gowns and 7,000 sanitising kits from the company in a contract worth about 500,000 in April. The company later decided to donate a first batch of 50,000 gowns instead of taking money for them.

Fontana then ordered a bank transfer of 250,000 euros from his own private account in Switzerland to his brother-in-law. The payment was blocked by one of the banks, which notified financial police.

Messrs. Pensa said Fontana wanted to compensate his brother-in-law for the loss of profit he suffered by converting the purchase into a donation.

League leader Matteo Salvini, a former interior minister, defended Fontana, saying the magistrates were politically motivated. Opposition parties called on Mr. Fontana to resign.

About half of Italy’s 35,000 deaths due to the coronavirus have been in Lombardy, Italy’s northern industrial and financial heartland. — Reuters

Curtain formally falls on Season 82 of the UAAP

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo, Senior Reporter

THE truncated Season 82 of the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) officially drew to a close last Saturday with the closing ceremony done online.

Abruptly cut by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the league and its TV coveror ABS-CBN Sports made sure the season had an appropriate closure with the University of Santo Tomas being crowned as overall champion both for the juniors and seniors divisions, and the Ateneo de Manila University turning over hosting duties to next season’s host De La Salle University.

Beamed across the different social media platforms of ABS-CBN Sports, the hour-long closing ceremony celebrated what was an eventful season for varying reasons, spotlighting the efforts of all eight member schools and the athletes, including those who were unable to finish their season due to the cancellation of the games.

The Growling Tigers won their 44th overall crown with 209 points after ruling five events, namely men’s and women’s beach volleyball; men’s and women’s table tennis, and men’s judo. They also had five silver and three bronze finishes. On the other hand, the Tiger Cubs bagged its sixth straight general championship — 21st overall — with 179 points.

Fifteen student-athletes were also honored with the Athlete Scholar awards, namely, Adamson University’s Rochelle Lalongisip (girls volleyball) and Cleofe Magsayo (softball); Ateneo’s Joaquin Santos (boys swimming) and Chloe Daos (women’s swimming); DLSU’s Raven Alcoseba (boys swimming) and Darius Diamante (men’s football); Far Eastern University’s Cholo Anonuevo (boys basketball) and Clare Castro (women’s basketball); National University’s Camille Clarin (women’s basketball) and Allaney Doroy (girls; chess); University of the East’s Denise Pidlaoan (girls judo) and Leah Lopez (women’s judo); University of the Philippines’ Gabriel Salazar (men’s judo); and UST’s Aljiren Fuchigami (men’s football) and Regina Jurado (girls; volleyball).

Also recognized were the Most Valuable Players from each completed event.

No Athlete of the Year Award was handed out, however.

Instead the league honored all 1,214 student-athletes from canceled events collegiate volleyball, collegiate football, collegiate baseball, collegiate softball, track and field, lawn tennis, and 3×3 basketball.

In April, the UAAP officially decided to scrap the remainder of Season 82 because of the  growing threat of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ATENEO TO LA SALLE
The closing ceremony also had Ateneo turning over hosting chores to La Salle, which has a motto for next season of “Fully Alive, Champions For Life.”

The turnover was conducted between Ateneo University President Fr. Jett Villarin, SJ and his DLSU counterpart Bro. Raymundo Suplido, FSC.

In receiving the hosting duties, Mr. Suplido acknowledged that they have their work cut out for them amid the COVID-19 situation but they vowed to be careful and resilient in staging Season 83, which is being eyed to start early next year.

“For the love of sports, we have to challenge ourselves to continue to excel. It is important that we do so with resilience and fortitude. Also, we must plan and play but with safety and prudence in our minds so that we do not risk the health and safety of our members,” the La Salle official said.

Meanwhile, UAAP Executive Director Rebo Saguisag said over Radyo Singko’s Power and Play with Noli Eala that while it was unfortunate that Season 82 was cut, they were still thankful that they were able to work around the situation and close things out properly.

Looking ahead, Mr. Saguisag shared various challenges present themselves for the league, including the issue on its TV coveror after ABS-CBN Sports was forced to sign off following the non-renewal of its parent network’s franchise by Congress.

The UAAP official said they will continue to evaluate their options and do what is best for the league.

ABS-CBN Sports was home to the UAAP since 2000. Their latest contract ended in May.

PSC online seminar for coaches begins

THE Philippine Sports Commission’s (PSC) online coaching seminar begins on Monday and seeks to continue with its goal of enhancing further local coaches’ competencies and skills and establishing a national standard for sports coaching in the country.

A project under the Philippine Sports Institute’s (PSI) Sports Education and Training Program, the National Sports Coaching Certification Course (NSCCC) was piloted in Tagum City two years ago and in the cities of Legazpi and Davao in 2019.

Organizers said Visayas will have the first go at the online coaches’ certification, with all of the 1,090 slots already full.

“The present situation in the country should not deter us from continuing our programs and services to the sports community, specifically in enhancing the competencies of our coaches in the schools and the LGUs (local government units),” said PSC oversight commissioner for Visayas Ramon Fernandez as he spoke of their efforts amid the ongoing situation with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Sports coaches of elementary and high school student teams in Visayas will be the initial batch of online learners for the course’s Level 1 modules on Sports Philosophy, Sports Pedagogy, Sports Psychology, Sports Physiology, Talent Identification, and Sports Ethics.

Lecturers will be PSC-PSI sports education dean Prof. Henry Daut, PSC-PSI sports psychology head Dr. Karen Katrina Trinidad, PSC-PSI sports physiology head Prof. Josephine Joy Reyes, PSC-PSI sports specialist Prof. Luis Serafin Cosep, and Fr. Fonz Suico, CSSR. A blend of synchronous and asynchronous learning methods will be applied through the use of Google Meet and Google Classroom tools.

Passers of the Level 1 pilot staging in Legazpi and Davao, meanwhile, are also expected to continue with Level 2 online, while a separate course curriculum for coaches of sports for the differently abled is being planned for launch this November.

Luzon will have their sessions for Region 1 and CAR from Aug. 10 to 13, while Mindanao will have theirs for Region 10 from Aug. 17 to 20.

Meanwhile, the PSC shared that its “golden dreams” in the Tokyo Olympics remains a priority despite the pandemic as it continues to work with the different national sports associations (NSAs) in crafting proper training resumption guidelines.

Health professionals from the PSC-MSAS (Medical Scientific Athletes Services) unit started meeting NSAs on July 21 to discuss updated protocol and minimum health standards of training venues with each concerned NSA. The meetings are scheduled to last until July 29.

“The PSC recognizes that our Olympic hopefuls need to maintain momentum and they do that by going back to focused training,” said National Training Director Marc Velasco.

Right now, the Philippines is assured of having at least four representatives in the Olympic Games in Tokyo in 2021, namely, EJ Obiena (pole vault), Carlos Yulo (gymnastics), and Eumir Felix Marcial and Irish Magno (boxing).

Local sports officials, however, are upbeat that more athletes could join the four in the lead-up to the Games. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Robert ‘The Reaper’ Whittaker leads winners at UFC Fight Night in Abu Dhabi, United  Arab Emirates

THE Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) capped its successful hosting of events on the “UFC Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Sunday, with former middleweight champion Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker among the winners.

Australian Whittaker (21-5), who lost his UFC title in his previous fight in October last year, made it a successful return to the Octagon by beating fast-rising contender Darren “The Gorilla” Till (18-3-1) from England by unanimous decision, 48-47, 48-47 and 48-47, in their headlining UFC Fight Night battle.

Also emerging victorious were light heavyweight Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, heavyweight Fabricio “Val Cavalo” Werdum and women’s strawweight Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza.

Referee Herb Dean briefly stopped the action late in the round after a cut opened Mr. Whittaker’s ear.

Despite bleeding heavily from the cut, Mr. Whittaker continued to fight and hung on for the UD victory.

“It was a stressful fight. I hope the fans liked it because it was one of the most technical fights I have been part of. It showed both fighters’ strengths,” said Mr. Whittaker after the fight.

Meanwhile, Brazilian Rua (27-11-1) made it 3-0 over compatriot Antonio “Lil Nog” Nogueira in their overall matchups with a split decision win, 29-28, 28-29 and 29-28.

In their previous two fights in 2015 and 2005, Mr. Rua was a winner both times by unanimous decision.

Knicks mentor

It didn’t take ESPN scribe Adrian Wojnarowski long to make his presence felt anew. In fact, one day was all he needed to reclaim sports headlines; his two-week suspension by the media giant ended Friday, and he was already breaking news that the Knicks had hired Tom Thibodeau to be their next head coach when weekend struck. Which was just fine by him, as well as by all and sundry in hoops circles; he immediately regretted sending a sitting senator an F-bomb via his office email address, leading to his ban and all the #FreeWoj hashtags. Everybody knew the byline and not the body was his rightful place in an article.

It’s fair to argue that Wojnarowski was the beneficiary of both his ties and timing. Had the Knicks been able to come to an agreement with Thibodeau before he returned to work, some other industrious insider could well have hogged the print space. On the flipside, that alternate reality would have added insult to injury as the byproduct of sheer bad luck; the franchise was already on its eighth month without a head coach, the longest in its history. Not that prudence wasn’t required; if anything, ownership had to be extra cautious after cycling through 13 bench tacticians in the last two decades. That it boasts of a single playoff series win in those 20 years, and that it will continue to pay for the services of ousted mentor David Fizdale until 2023, speak volumes of the viability — or lack thereof — of its previous decision-making processes.

To be sure, the job was Thibodeau’s to lose from the outset, and not simply because he once served as a Knicks assistant in the successful Jeff Van Gundy dispensation. Even without counting his close relationship with newly installed team president Leon Rose, he had his own proven accomplishments to tout. Never mind his unceremonious ouster from the Timberwolves early last year; more than anything else, the development was a reflection of the pitfalls of combining front-office and sideline work. Moving forward, he’s likely to cede talent assessment to Rose, executive vice-president William Wesley, and general manager Scott Perry while focusing on player development.

No doubt, more details of the working arrangements will crop up courtesy of Wojnarowski (and other NBA reporters). Meanwhile, he’ll be counted on to provide details on contractual terms between the Knicks and Thibodeau, as negotiated by CAA Sports agent Spencer Breecker. And while the development will serve the culmination of an exhaustive search that required connecting with 11 candidates over the last eight weeks, it’s just the start of the franchise’s climb to respect and respectability.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

Dating app users navigate new norms as real-life meetings return

Daters are adjusting to shifting norms: random hookups are fast being replaced with weeks-long virtual courting.

Kimberly Chao’s first date was canceled after he told her he might have caught the coronavirus. It took three negative tests and multiple video calls before he convinced her to finally meet in person—three months after they started chatting on a dating app.

With restaurants and bars closed at the time, her date suggested they stroll around in New York City’s Soho area to check out protest street art on boarded-up store windows. They wore masks the whole time in their 90-minute meet-up.

“We hugged at the end—even the hug made me kind of nervous,” Ms. Chao, a 37-year-old independent financial adviser in New York, recalls that date in early June.

While the pandemic has dramatically changed the playbook for in-person dating, especially in hard-hit areas like New York, it hasn’t stopped stay-at-home singletons from craving human connection. Online dating companies are seeing a rebound in the US, with daily downloads of major apps for such connections bouncing back from earlier lows this year to pre-COVID levels, according to estimates by Apptopia.

Daters are adjusting to shifting norms: random hookups are fast being replaced with weeks-long virtual courting. Good hygiene and being socially responsible are now prerequisites, along with a clear agreement on social distancing and masks for in-person meetings.

“We are more bullish on dating than we were when we initiated coverage on Match in early June,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Cassel, citing higher engagement and pent-up demand for human interaction during this period for Match Group Inc.

In a report this week, her team estimated more people downloaded Match’s Tinder app last quarter during the pandemic than analysts tracking the company had expected. The Dallas-based owner of apps including OkCupid and Hinge finalized its spinoff from IAC/InterActiveCorp. earlier this month and added new board members including actor Ryan Reynolds.

VIDEO CONNECTIONS
During the pandemic, dating apps also rushed to accommodate users with in-app video features and speed dating games that weren’t needed in the past. While video dates could migrate to Zoom or Skype, many are reluctant to give out contact information and prefer to keep communications within the app, said Geoff Cook, chief executive officer of The Meet Group Inc., which introduced video and livestreaming on its core platforms including MeetMe and Skout three years ago.

The company’s shares have risen 24% since the start of the year and have rebounded from the plunge in March when cities including New York and Los Angeles shut down non-essential businesses and pushed people to stay home.

COVID-19 is also changing the dating patterns for July and August, traditionally slow months for online dating as people go out to socialize and meet potential dates through mingling. Not this summer, said Kenji Yamazaki, co-founder of EastMeetEast, an Asian American dating app, whose users continued to engage on livestreaming at a high level since that trend picked up in March.

Still, there’s a limit to video dates, said Khadijah Diaz, 28, who has been using Bumble, Tinder, Hinge, and a few Facebook dating groups for Black people in Houston.

“It’s not the same as meeting people face-to-face and finding the energy,” Ms. Diaz said. “For me to continuously be interested in somebody, I need to see them face-to-face.”

‘ANTIBODY POSITIVE’
Others are also finding ways to accelerate the return to real-world dating. On Grindr, a popular gay dating app, some users add “antibody positive” in profile pages to alleviate concerns of prospective dates.

In Meet Group’s community survey of more than 2,500 people in the US, 81% say they would meet someone they met on a dating app tomorrow, and 71% would like their first date to wear a mask. More than half the respondents say going to work or school is riskier than going on a first date for an outdoor meal or coffee.

Concerns about the pandemic continue to linger, prompting the New Hope, Pennsylvania-based company to form a “Safer Dating Advisory Board” to provide dating guidelines from health experts. It’s also considering adding a filter for users to opt in for virtual dating-only, in order to avoid a mismatch of expectations.

“It was clear and it remains to be clear that people are fearful of the virus,” Mr. Cook said. “Fear might have peaked in April-May, but they continue to insist on mask-wearing.”

And longer periods of virtual dating may just become the norm to screen prospective partners. Even as cities begin to ease measures and allow restaurants and bars to gradually reopen, Match spokeswoman Vidhya Murugesan said the company continues to see users connecting through features such as in-app video chats before deciding to meet in person.

“Even after the pandemic, I actually like doing a lot of videos and calls before meeting a person. It would save me a lot of time,” said Ms. Chao, who didn’t mind her video dates appearing in work-out clothes with beard unshaved and hair untrimmed, as many of them did. “Before, I would go on a date, but after a few minutes, I realize I shouldn’t have gone.” — Bloomberg

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