SIX MONTHS into his comeback term, Donald J. Trump has taken full ownership of the US economy. For better or worse, his party must now sell it to voters.
The president has hailed the world’s “hottest” economy — and found others to blame for any wobbles. When Friday’s jobs report showed a dramatic slowdown in hiring, he fired the head of the agency that published it. He’s pinned some frustrations on his predecessor Joseph R. Biden, and continues to berate the US Federal Reserve for what he considers too-high interest rates.
But for political purposes, his takeover has now been cemented — after passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax-and-spending law, and the latest phase of his global tariff rollout. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick trumpeted the transition: “The Trump Economy has officially arrived,” he posted on social media.
The question is whether Americans like it. Next year Mr. Trump’s economic record will be on the midterm ballot. Polls suggest voters are unhappy with the tariffs and tax plans — potentially giving Democrats an opening. The loss of Grand Old Party (GOP) majorities in Congress could stall Mr. Trump’s legislative agenda and expose him to impeachment efforts, as it did in his first term.
The July employment figures, with job creation running at the weakest pace since the pandemic, were the latest indicator of a slowing economy. Gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter then rebounded in the second, as trade shifts skewed the numbers — but the overall pace in the first half of 2025 has been around half of last year’s, with consumers hitting the brakes amid trade-war uncertainty. Still, unemployment remains low and so far there’s been little sign of the tariff-led surge in prices that many pundits warn of.
“The economy has held up remarkably well. Inflation has stayed relatively tame. But I do think there are storm clouds on the horizon,” said Republican strategist Marc Short, who served in Mr. Trump’s first administration. Many businesses have so far avoided passing on tariff costs to consumers, he said, but “the frog has been boiling all along.”
Mr. Trump announced another round of tariff hikes this week, after months of often chaotic threats and reversals. Almost all US trading partners now face higher rates. The import taxes are bringing in billions in government revenue, but the longer-term economic impact remains unclear. Critics say US consumers and businesses will foot the bill.
A recent Fox News poll shows that 62% of voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of tariffs — while 58% are against the tax and spending bill, and 55% are unhappy with his overall handling of the economy.
Voters are especially sensitive to the cost of living right now after prices skyrocketed under the Biden administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cited the risk that tariffs could rekindle inflation as one reason for holding interest rates steady — to Mr. Trump’s fury. The president has campaigned aggressively for lower rates, hinting he may fire Mr. Powell before his term ends next May. On Friday he called on the Fed’s board to “assume control” if Mr. Powell doesn’t deliver a cut.
There were some signs in June’s price data that tariffs are starting to nudge prices higher for products like furniture and appliances. Still, the White House has a decent story to tell, according to Republican strategist Alex Conant. “I would certainly take this economy over two or three years ago,” he said. “There are two things that crush a president, inflation or unemployment. Right now both are low.”
Democrats see opportunities to go after Mr. Trump on his tax-and-spending legislation as well as his tariffs. The measure includes new breaks for tips and overtime pay — but also steep cuts to health programs that will hurt many low-income Americans. “Our summer’s all about Cancel The Cuts,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on social media.
“I’ll be looking at how House and Senate Republicans fare back home as they try to sell the recent budget bill,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. “If you look at the polling, Democrats have to focus on his handling of the economy, because Americans are not happy.”
With tariffs largely in place, the White House in August plans to start promoting its tax law. State and local officials were at the White House this week getting briefed on the legislation, one official said. Another White House insider said Mr. Trump was expected to hit the road as part of the effort.
‘NAYSAYERS’
Key parts of the bill like the tips exemption are “huge immediate political winners,” Mr. Conant said. “They should not only run on them, they should attack Democrats for opposing them.”
The law also extends tax cuts from Mr. Trump’s first term, which had been due to expire. That’s potentially the GOP’s strongest argument to voters — “if they’d not done it, can you imagine what your tax bill would’ve been like next April” — according to veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz.
“They should be saying it, they’re doing it to some degree,” he told Bloomberg TV on Friday. “But it’s not being heard.”
The White House maintains that the economy is booming. “All the naysayers and the doomsayers have been proven wrong,” Communications Director Stephen Cheung said. And Mr. Trump is pulling other levers to improve GOP chances in the midterms.
He’s raised $236 million for his political operation in the first six months of 2025 — an unprecedented sum for a second-term president. The latest filings to the Federal Election Commission suggest most of that cash will be available for GOP House and Senate candidates.
Mr. Trump is also urging Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map in an effort to win House districts that are more favorable to Republicans — a move Democrats have decried as a power grab.
Midterm elections historically favor the party out of power — potentially giving a boost to Democrats, who were soundly beaten in 2024. But the opposition party is also struggling in the polls, and hasn’t coalesced around an effective appeal to voters.
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who has said he is considering a 2028 Democratic presidential bid, said the party has a clear economic message available for the midterms — which includes focusing on tariffs as an effective tax hike.
“This is all about accepting that Donald Trump owns this economy,” Mr. Emanuel said. — Bloomberg
