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What today’s Daniel would see on the wall

STOCK PHOTO | Image from FREEPIK

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has confirmed what many had feared all along: the Philippine economy is losing steam. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed sharply to 4% in the third quarter of 2025, down from 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.2% in the same period last year. With this performance, the economy’s year-to-date average is only 5%, well below the government’s already downgraded target of 5.5-6.5%.

If a modern-day Daniel were standing in the king’s court, he would read this as the first of the writing on the wall — a warning that the country’s growth trajectory is faltering, not because of fate, but because of choices.

1ST: FADING GROWTH PROSPECTS
Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsi Balisacan now concedes that even the lower end of the target range may be a tall order. To reach 5.5%, the economy would need to grow by 6.9% in the last quarter, a heroic and unrealistic feat given the weak macroeconomic environment. While the Philippines struggles to maintain momentum, regional neighbors such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam have posted stronger rebounds, driven by robust exports, revitalized investment, and more decisive policy execution.

The contrast is telling. These economies are immune neither to global headwinds nor to climate change, but they have built resilience through coherent planning, predictable governance, and sustained confidence from both domestic and foreign investors. The Philippines, by comparison, continues to grapple with policy uncertainty, under-execution of public programs, and a trust deficit that dampens business sentiment. This divergence in performance is not inevitable — it is the product of governance.

2ND: THE WEAKNESS  OF PUBLIC SPENDING
The second message on the wall is the failure of public expenditure to deliver growth. Government spending, especially on capital outlays, has lost vigor. Infrastructure investment, long heralded as the backbone of the country’s development agenda, has slowed to a crawl amid corruption probes and procedural paralysis.

The ongoing investigations into flood control project anomalies have had a chilling effect across multiple layers of government. Local and national agencies alike are reluctant to initiate new projects for fear of being caught in the dragnet of scrutiny. While accountability is vital, the unintended consequence has been a virtual freeze in implementation. As a result, construction output barely grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, dragging down the entire industrial sector.

Meanwhile, fiscal capacity is eroding. The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is poised to miss its P3.219-trillion collection target, widening the fiscal deficit, which already reached P1.117 trillion, or nearly 72% of the full-year ceiling of P1.56 trillion, by the third quarter. With such shortfalls, the government will have little choice but to borrow more, further swelling the national debt, which stood at P17.46 trillion, equivalent to 63.1% of GDP, as of September 2025.

Debt servicing alone absorbed P1.787 trillion in the first three quarters, P1.121 trillion in principal and P666 billion in interest payments. Every peso used to pay old debts is a peso diverted from classrooms, hospitals, and roads. This is not just a fiscal issue; it is a moral one. The inability to spend effectively, and the tendency to spend wastefully, erodes both economic capacity and public trust.

3RD: THE SOFTENING OF PRIVATE DEMAND
The third warning comes from private consumption which drives over 70% of the nation’s output. Household spending decelerated to 4.1% in the third quarter, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter and 5.2% a year earlier. Real wages have barely kept up with inflation, and cash remittances, a traditional lifeline for domestic consumption, have expanded only marginally.

Consumer sentiment has weakened under tighter financial conditions, high household debt, and uncertainty about job prospects. Business investment, too, remains cautious amid the perception of a difficult regulatory environment and a politicized bureaucracy.

Even the apparent stability in prices is fragile. The state of national calamity declared by President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. has temporarily frozen the prices of basic commodities for 60 days starting Nov. 6, a short-term reprieve that masks deeper structural pressures on food and energy supply chains. The moderation in household consumption, the country’s primary growth engine, constitutes the third writing on the wall.

4TH: A SHRINKING PRODUCTIVE BASE
On the supply side, the story is equally sobering. The services sector continues to anchor expansion, growing at 5.5%, but agriculture remains stagnant at under 3%. The industrial sector, however, has become the real drag, eking out a meager 0.7% growth. Manufacturing barely rose 1.2%, and construction inched forward 0.5%, while mining and quarrying showed more life at 4.4%.

The share of industry in GDP declined from 26.7% to 25.9%, signaling structural weakness and waning competitiveness. Business and consumer confidence indices from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) point consistently downward. The Purchasing Managers’ Index dipped below 50, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to underperform compared with its regional counterparts, reflecting investor hesitation and, yes, fatigue.

Without renewed confidence, the Philippines risks being trapped in a low-growth equilibrium where weak demand discourages investment, low investment suppresses productivity, and low productivity ensures continued weakness in demand.

5TH: A VULNERABLE FINANCIAL SECTOR
The only sector seemingly unscathed is banking and finance, which still enjoys solid capital buffers, ample liquidity, and strong deposit growth. Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain contained, with coverage ratios near 95%. However, this stability is not immune to macroeconomic decay. If growth remains sluggish and fiscal management continues to wobble, the accumulation of bad loans could rise, undermining balance sheets and financial confidence.

History reminds us that financial resilience can erode swiftly once the real economy weakens. A sustained slowdown could expose vulnerabilities in asset quality, especially in real estate and construction lending, amplifying the distress already visible in the productive sectors.

THE FINAL MESSAGE: GOVERNANCE, CORRUPTION, AND THE PATH TO REFORM
The true roots of these problems lie not merely in statistics but in governance. Economic growth falters when institutions fail, when public funds leak through corruption, and when policy credibility collapses under the weight of corruption and political expediency.

Ghost projects, overpriced procurements, and unaccountable spending continue to haunt the national budget. They represent not isolated incidents but a systemic failure that robs the nation of its future. The cost is not just financial; it is human — measured in overcrowded hospitals, under-resourced schools, and communities vulnerable to floods that should have been prevented by honest infrastructure spending.

The country’s economic challenge, therefore, is inseparable from its governance crisis. And while floods and earthquakes and climate change could be challenging, by no means should those in authority blame them for failed leadership and failure to deliver. To reverse the decline, the Philippines needs more than stimulus packages or policy slogans. It needs meaningful reforms anchored on transparency, accountability, and efficiency.

To be sure, such reforms are not new. They have been written in countless annual reports and promised in countless speeches. What is new is the urgency, the urgency to produce results, the urgency to show integrity in public service. Without them, the economy will continue to drift, growing below potential, lagging behind neighbors, and burdened by an ever-heavier debt load.

READING THE WRITING BEFORE IT FADES
The Philippines is not doomed to simply wither away. It still has a dynamic workforce, entrepreneurial energy, and a young demographic profile that, if supported by sound and serious policies, could propel it toward inclusive prosperity. But optimism without reform is denial.

The writing on the wall is clear: slowing growth, weak spending, waning confidence, and rising debt. To ignore them is to invite the fate of kingdoms like Nebuchadnezzar’s ancient Babylon that once refused to listen until it was too late.

Economic growth is not an illusion; it is an outcome of good governance. The choice, as always, lies not in fate but in intentional leadership.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Bank of Commerce targets to increase lending to retail sector

BANK of Commerce (BankCom) is looking to increase the share of retail loans in its portfolio to help boost its margins amid easing borrowing costs.

“Similar to many of the other banks in the Philippines, we expect a decreasing interest rate environment over the next few months at least. So, what our focus has been on is really just ensuring that we are focused on maintaining our current revenue streams. One of the things we’ve started looking at is increasing our share of retail in our loan business,” BankCom Chief Financial Officer Antonio S. Laquindanum said during the Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc.’s Investor Day held online on Thursday.

He said the retail sector accounts for just 13% of their loan book. BankCom’s consumer loans include car, housing, and salary loans, as well as credit cards.

At end-September, BankCom’s total loans and receivables grew by 10.02% to P150.18 billion  from P136.51 billion at end-December 2024.

“So, over the next few years, we plan to be growing that to become a bigger share of our loan book. That will help manage the decreasing interest rate environment for us while still being focused on credit quality, as well as expenses outside of the required investments in technology, people, and branch growth.”

Mr. Laquindanum said the bank targets to bring the share of consumer loans to above 15% of its total portfolio in the next few years through online sales and deals, where its cards business is more aggressive in offering discounts.

The bank will also be investing heavily in branch expansion outside of Metro Manila, he added.

“But in terms of branch expansion, that’s something management is going to be focused on at least in the next year in terms of capital expenditures. One of the ways we’re managing that is our initial focus on branch-lites. We’ve found that they’re about half the cost of a full branch,” he said, adding that branch-lite units bring in a “significant” amount of business at more than half of what a regular branch produces.

BankCom’s net income rose by 11.47% to P884.29 million in the third quarter amid higher revenues, bringing its nine-month profit to P2.745 billion, up 24.11% from P2.21 billion a year ago.

Its shares closed at P8.40 apiece on Thursday, up by 11 centavos or 1.33% from the previous day’s close. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

Aviation, catering drive MacroAsia’s Q3 profit to P342.6M

MACROASIACORP.COM

MACROASIA CORP., the listed aviation-support provider, saw its third-quarter (Q3) attributable net income climb 20.49% to P342.63 million, driven by steady volume gains across its business segments.

Total revenues for the third quarter reached P2.59 billion, up 20.49% from P2.22 billion in the same period last year.

“Moving forward, MacroAsia’s value proposition remains clear. A varied portfolio, global partnerships, growth visibility, and continued shareholder value creation. MacroAsia’s growth is anchored on aviation and food services, which remain our core business pillars,” MacroAsia President and Chief Operating Officer Eduardo Luis T. Luy said during the PSE STAR: Investor Day organized by the Philippine Stock Exchange on Thursday.

For the first nine months of 2025, MacroAsia posted an attributable net income of P1.02 billion, up from P975.95 million in the same period last year.

Gross revenues for the January-to-September period totaled P7.41 billion, a 5.71% increase from P7.01 billion a year earlier.

By segment, in-flight and catering services accounted for the largest share of revenues, generating P3.55 billion, followed by ground handling and aviation at P3.13 billion, water distribution at P538.9 million, and administrative fees at P187.2 million for the nine-month period.

Costs and expenses rose 12.93% to P5.85 billion from P5.18 billion a year ago, mainly due to rate adjustments and updated lease and fee structures at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Cebu Landmasters nine-month profit rises 6% to P3.1 billion

CEBU LANDMASTERS, INC. (CLI) reported a consolidated net income of P3.1 billion for the first nine months, up 6% from P2.9 billion in the same period last year.

Revenues reached P14.3 billion, a 2% increase from P14.1 billion in 2024, with real estate sales contributing P12.4 billion, the company said in a press release on Thursday.

Recurring income from hotel and rental operations grew 72%, supported by new property openings and higher occupancy. Hotel revenues rose 101%, while rental income increased 49%.

Residential reservation sales climbed 27% to P19.3 billion, driven by new launches including One Manresa Place in Cagayan de Oro and Casa Mira Homes Gensan.

Total assets increased 18% to P128.7 billion, while the net debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.63x.

The company’s landbank expanded to 188 hectares, including a 79-hectare property in Liloan, Cebu, intended for mixed-use development.

CLI currently manages 131 projects, comprising 102 residential developments and 16 income-generating properties, including hotels and offices. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

Stuff to Do (11/14/25)

See Teatro Meron stage Ang Medea

TEATRO MERON is presenting Ang Medea, a restaging of Euripides’ classic, translated into Filipino by the late National Artist for Theater Rolando S. Tinio. Fresh from last year’s sold-out run, this production returns with a cast of theater veterans led by Miren Alvarez-Fabregas as Medea, with Teroy Guzman, Yan Yuzon, Bryan Sy, Joseph dela Cruz, Katski Flores, Gold Soon, Pickles Leonidas, and Joel Macaventa. The director is Ron Capinding, founder and ar-tistic director of Teatro Meron. Performances run from Nov. 13 to 28 at the Special Exhibition Hall of The Mind Museum, Bonifacio Global City. Tickets and schedules are available via Ticket2Me.

Go to a PPO concert with pianist Mark Bebbington

THE Philippine Philharmonic Orchestra (PPO) is continuing its 41st season with the concert Triumph and Thanksgiving, set for Nov. 14, 7:30 p.m., at the Samsung Performing Arts Theater in Circuit, Makati City. With Grzegorz Nowak at the helm, the concert will feature works by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, Ludwig van Beethoven, and Modest Mussorgsky. Internationally recognized pianist Mark Bebbington will be the guest, performing Beethoven’s Piano Con-certo No. 5 in E flat Major, Op. 73. Tickets, priced from P1,500 to P3,000, are available at TicketWorld.

Go to a Ryan Cayabyab concert this weekend

THE newly opened Proscenium Theater at Rockwell will be staging its inaugural concert, the MaestroClass Concert Series, featuring the songs of National Artist for Music Ryan Cayabyab and the voices of Martin Nievera, Lani Misalucha, and the Ryan Cayabyab Singers. The three-night event is set to happen from Nov. 14 to 16. It is a celebration of Mr. C’s artistry, which has shaped Original Pilipino Music (OPM) for decades. MaestroClass Concert Series tickets are now available via TicketWorld, priced from P7,000 to P12,000.

Watch a Bruce Springsteen biopic

AYALA MALLS Cinemas has exclusively brought to Philippine cinemas the film Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. It stars Jeremy Allen White, whose performance as Bruce Springsteen has garnered awards season buzz. Based on Warren Zanes’s best-selling book of the same name, the character-driven drama chronicles the making of Nebraska, one of Springsteen’s most memorable albums. Directed by Scott Cooper, it also stars Jeremy Strong as Spring-steen’s longtime manager and producer. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere is showing exclusively in Ayala Malls Cinemas.

See Dulaang UP honor Mabesa with twin bill

A TWIN BILL, titled Para Kay Tony: Tungo sa Ginintuang Alaala, featuring classic plays will pay homage to Dulaang UP founder and National Artist for Theater Antonio “Tony” Mabesa. The first half is a staging of Kalahating Oras sa Isang Kumbento by Filipino playwright Wilfrido Ma. Guerrero as translated by Lilia F. Antonio. The story follows Yolanda, a student at a convent school, who seeks comfort and companionship after being expelled. University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman Theatre Arts student Lloyd Sarmiento Uy serves as director. The second play features National Artist Rolando Tinio’s May Katwiran ang Katwiran, about Senyor, a wealthy haciendero who persuades his servant to join him on a journey across the mountains. The staging is directed by Theatre Arts student MJ Briones. The production will run from Nov. 14 to 30 at the IBG-KAL Theater, UP Diliman.

Watch the 3rd Now You See Me movie

NOW YOU SEE ME: Now You Don’t, the third in the Now You See Me franchise, is now showing only in only at Ayala Malls Cinemas. Directed by Ruben Fleischer, the film reunites the Four Horsemen — played by Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, and Dave Franco — with Morgan Freeman as mentor Thaddeus Bradley. Joining them to play a new batch of young illusionists are Justice Smith, Dominic Sessa, and Ariana Greenblatt, along with Rosamund Pike as the cunning and powerful villain. The film’s MTRCB rating is PG.

Listen to carols at The Pen

THE Peninsula Manila celebrates Christmas in November with some of Manila’s finest choirs performing in The Lobby. Performing on Nov. 14 are the Centro Escolar University Singers Manila, and on Nov. 21, it is the turn of the Servus Dei Vocal Ensemble. The carol-filled month will end with the Mapúa Cardinal Singers on Nov. 28. The performances will take place from 7 to 7:45 p.m. on those dates, with P1,500 as the minimum consumption amount for each guest who dines at The Lobby.

Go to Araneta City’s belen lighting

THE congregation of Our Lady of Perpetual Help Parish as well as Quezon City mayor Joy Belmonte are hosting the festive lighting of Araneta City’s nativity display on Nov. 14. It is located on Gen. MacArthur Ave., between Farmers Plaza and Farmers Garden. The program starts at 5 p.m., with the tree lighting taking place at 6 p.m.

Watch GH Mall light its official Christmas tree

GREENHILLS (GH) Mall’s annual Christmas tree lighting ceremony is happening on Nov. 14, at 5 p.m. Located in GH Mall’s East Wing Atrium in San Juan City, the event includes the tree lighting plus a performance by an orchestra. They will play Christmas songs, and a surprise dance crew will put up a dance performance during the program.

Attend the start of Glorietta’s Christmas light display

ON Nov. 15 at 6 p.m., it will be Glorietta’s turn to light their Christmas tree and Christmas lights display in Makati City. It can be found at the Glorietta Activity Center. Titled “That Holiday Feeling,” the event will include a program that will invite mallgoers to take part and snap pictures and videos of the newly lit display.

Visit Penshoppe’s pop-up at MOA

PENSHOPPE is kicking off its pop-up “All Together Now” campaign at the SM Mall of Asia’s (MOA) Main Atrium. On Nov. 14, starting 4 p.m., celebrities Brent Manalo, Vince Maristela, Josh Worsley, Charlie Dizon, and AZ Rivera will drop by. On Nov. 16, starting 7 p.m., celebrities James Reid, Darren Espanto, Cassy Legaspi, and Ysabel Ortega will grace the pop-up.

Attend Spanish singer Luis Llaneza’s masterclass

THE Embassy of Spain, through its Cultural and Education offices and the Instituto Cervantes, is welcoming a renowned Spanish baritone to the Philippines as part of its cultural program. Luis Alberto Fernandez-Llaneza is welcoming young budding singers to his masterclasses, taking place at the University of Santo Tomas (UST) on Nov. 14 and the Philippine Women’s University on Nov. 19, both at 3 p.m. The classes are for free, with registration required through each university’s social media pages. Mr. Llaneza will also perform at UST on Nov. 22.

Watch TP’s musical on Gregoria de Jesus

TANGHALANG PILIPINO’S (TP) newest production for its 39th season is a groundbreaking original musical that reimagines the life of revolutionary Gregoria de Jesus through the sound of Pinoy pop music. With music by Nica del Rosario and Matthew Chang, and a book by Nicanor Tiongson and Eljay Deldoc, the show stars Marynor Madamesila and is directed by Delphine Buencamino. It is ongoing until Dec. 14, with performances at 3 and 8 p.m., at the Tanghalang Ignacio Gimenez (CCP Black Box Theater), CCP Complex, Pasay City. VIP tickets cost P2,000 while regular tickets are P1,800.

Measuring poverty in the age of climate

By Knut Ostby and Mohamed Shahudh

How we understand and measure poverty has evolved. From early income-based definitions, Nobel laureate Amartya Sen’s “capability approach” in the 1980s broadened the concept, viewing poverty not just as a lack of income but as the absence of basic opportunities and freedoms.

Building on this, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) developed the Human Development Index (HDI) in the 1990s and, in subsequent years, formulated the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). Annually released by the UNDP in partnership with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), the MPI measures human well-being and examines poverty through deprivations in health, education, and living standards, offering a more complete picture of poverty beyond income.

This year’s Global MPI Report 2025, “Overlapping Hardships: Poverty and Climate Hazards,” covers 109 countries representing 6.3 billion people. It finds that 1.1 billion people, or 18.3% of the global population, live in multidimensional poverty. Most of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and more than half are children. For the first time, the report links poverty data with climate risk, revealing how climate change worsens the burden of poverty. Nearly 80% of the world’s poor, or around 887 million people, live in areas exposed to at least one of four major climate hazards: extreme heat, drought, flooding, or air pollution. Under high-emission scenarios, these regions could face 37 more days of extreme heat annually by mid-century, deepening existing inequalities.

In the Philippines, 3.9% of the population, or 4.47 million people, are multidimensionally poor, while another 5.2%, or 6.02 million, are at risk. Most deprivations stem from living standards, followed by education and health. The report highlights air pollution in Metro Manila and flooding in southern provinces as major climate hazards that threaten progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The country’s latest Voluntary National Review identifies Climate Action as one of the SDGs now regressing, an urgent warning that climate impacts are already slowing inclusive development.

Recent events in the Philippines illustrate this growing vulnerability. Just recently, Typhoon Tino battered Central Visayas, including the province of Cebu, with torrential rains and destructive winds. Within a single day, some areas received more than 180 millimeters of rain, enough to flood entire communities. Power and communication lines were cut off in several municipalities, and emergency shelters quickly filled beyond capacity. The storm killed more than 180 people and left over a hundred missing, displacing thousands. Just as relief operations were underway, Typhoon Uwan came, threatening further rainfall and landslides in Northern Luzon. The back-to-back disasters underscored how natural and climate-induced hazards can trap already vulnerable communities in a cycle of loss and recovery.

These overlapping crises reflect what the MPI calls the “double burden” and the intersectionality of poverty and climate change. Poor households are more likely to live in areas exposed to hazards and in housing that cannot withstand extreme events. When disasters strike, they have fewer savings, weaker safety nets, and limited access to insurance or assistance. The MPI report shows that in rural areas, multidimensional poverty is more than four times higher than in urban centers. In the Philippines, where the majority of the population lives in rural barangays, according to the Listahanan 3 survey. This means that millions are exposed to both economic and environmental risks.

Breaking this cycle requires integrating climate action with poverty reduction. Programs such as the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) already provide a strong foundation, but systems need to become more adaptive and shock-responsive. Emergency cash transfers should be scaled up, local governments should be better coordinated during disasters, and nature-based livelihoods in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries should be expanded to strengthen rural resilience.

Governments can also modernize data systems to combine poverty mapping with climate and hazard data. These integrated systems can trigger pre-arranged budget releases when disaster thresholds are reached, allowing for faster and more targeted support. The Philippines can enhance its adaptive social protection mechanisms by incorporating these anticipatory financing tools to protect vulnerable families before disasters strike.

The stakes are high. The Philippines loses an estimated 1.2% of GDP each year due to typhoons, with losses projected to rise to 7.6% by 2030 and 13.6% by 2040 without stronger adaptation measures. Each year, nearly one million Filipinos are pushed into poverty by climate-related shocks according to the World Bank’s Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (2024). Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, and adaptive social protection could offset up to two-thirds of these losses while creating jobs and strengthening communities.

As the world prepares for COP30, the 2025 Global MPI reminds us that poverty reduction and strengthening climate resilience must go hand in hand. For the Philippines and its ASEAN neighbors, aligning these priorities is essential to building a future that is resilient, inclusive, and sustainable for all.

 

Knut Ostby is the UNDP Philippines resident representative ad interim, and Mohammed Shahud is a UNDP Philippines economist.

Peso rebounds on improving risk sentiment

BW FILE PHOTO

THE PESO strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as investor confidence got a boost after President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said the government is working to boost spending to support the economy amid a slowdown that was largely a consequence of a graft scandal involving allegedly anomalous flood control projects.

The local unit closed at P59 per dollar, jumping by 17 centavos from its record-low P59.17 finish on Wednesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened the session slightly stronger at P59.13 against the greenback. Its intraday best was at P58.99, while its worst showing was at P59.19 versus the dollar.

Dollars traded went down to $1.42 billion on Thursday from $1.72 billion on Wednesday.

“The dollar-peso closed lower after President Marcos vowed to arrest and give jail time for suspects involved in the flood control projects as well as economic recovery in the fourth quarter, boosting investing confidence and lifting the peso,” a trader said in a phone interview.

On Thursday, Mr. Marcos pledged to ramp up government spending to help boost the economy after gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 4% in the third quarter, the weakest in over four years.

In the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5%, below the government’s 5.5%-6.5% full-year target.

For Friday, the trader expects the peso to move between P58.80 and P59.20 per dollar.

DECLINE TO P60 POSSIBLE
A second trader said in a text message that the peso could weaken to the P60 level in the near term unless there are solid signs of economic recovery and improved risk sentiment.

A more dovish Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) versus a cautious US Federal Reserve could also hasten the peso’s depreciation.

For this reason, Bank of the Philippine Islands President and Chief Executive Officer Teodoro K. Limcaoco told reporters on Wednesday that the BSP is unlikely to deliver a jumbo 50-basis-point (bp) rate cut next month.

“I don’t think we would do a 50-bp cut. It’s drastic. It might send the wrong signal. And you have to look at what the Fed is doing because if you cut significantly faster than the Fed, that means a weak peso,” he said.

The BSP last month reduced benchmark rates by 25 bps for a fourth straight meeting, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%. Since starting its easing cycle in August last year, the Monetary Board has cut rates by a total of 175 bps.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said another cut at their Dec. 11 meeting is possible, and more reductions are also likely next year amid the expected economic fallout from the flood control mess.

Meanwhile, the Fed last month also cut borrowing costs by 25 bps to bring its target rate to the 3.75%-4% range.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has said that a cut at their December review is not guaranteed as they remain cautious amid a mostly mixed economic picture. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

K-pop group NewJeans to return to label ADOR, Yonhap reports

SEOUL — All five members of K-pop girl group NewJeans plan to resume working with their record label ADOR, South Korea’s Yonhap News outlet reported on Wednesday, citing group members Hanni, Minji, and Danielle.

The group has been on hiatus for months amid a legal battle with ADOR, which has made headlines in South Korea, where record labels traditionally wield power over their stars.

ADOR, a subsidiary of powerhouse label HYBE, released a statement earlier in the day saying that Haerin and Hyein, the other two members of the group, will return to the K-pop music scene, but it was not immediately able to confirm whether the other three are also joining.

“We are checking whether the three members intend to return,” ADOR said in an e-mailed statement.

A South Korean court in March issued an injunction to stop the group from pursuing independent projects, after they began their legal battle with the label over alleged mistreatment.

The court upheld ADOR’s request to maintain its role managing the group and prohibit the five members from engaging in commercial activities without the label’s consent. — Reuters

AbaCore swings to profit in third quarter

https://abacorecapitalholdings.com/website_9ffce9b0/

ABACORE Capital Holdings, Inc. (ABA) reported an attributable net income of P3.04 million for the third quarter (Q3), a turnaround from a P30.25-million net loss in the same period last year, driven by strong performance across its various business ventures.

“Our strong performance for three quarters of 2025 reflects the company’s strategic focus on asset optimization and disciplined financial management,” ABA Chairman and President Atty. Antonio Victoriano F. Gregorio III said in a press release on Thursday.

For the January-to-September period, ABA’s consolidated net income doubled to P82.67 million from P40.35 million a year earlier, largely due to P172.076 million in gains from the disposal of investment properties.

Operational expenses fell 11% to P83.02 million from P93.80 million, reflecting lower professional and management fees, reduced salaries and employee benefits following the demise of a senior officer, and adjustments in government premiums and healthcare contributions.

“We continue to strengthen our balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities across our key sectors,” Mr. Gregorio added.

During the third quarter, ABA’s subsidiary, Simlong Energy Development Corporation (SEDC), signed a memorandum of agreement with the state-owned Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) to conduct a feasibility study for a wind power project at AbaCore’s ABA Energy Hub in Batangas City.

On Thursday, AbaCore closed at P0.38, up 0.02 or 5.56%. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

Ancestral domain titles: The missing link in the carbon market

STOCK PHOTO | Image from FREEPIK

By Erwin L. Tiamson

As typhoons grow stronger and floods become deadlier, the Philippines faces a stark reality: climate change is no longer a distant threat, but a present crisis. Yet amid the devastation lies an untapped solution — carbon projects rooted in ancestral domains.

There is a real opportunity for the Philippines’ indigenous communities, one that can turn decades of unrewarded stewardship into sustainable local income, jobs, and investment. As carbon finance matures, forest restoration is no longer only a public good: when structured correctly, it can become a durable revenue stream for Indigenous Peoples (IPs) who hold Certificates of Ancestral Domain Title (CADTs) and who, by law, are recognized as the rightful stewards of their ancestral lands — covering over 6 million hectares with more titles still under processing.

The key is institutional design. Treating carbon benefits as an accessory to ownership, much like the fruits of the land belonging to the owner-farmer, can lead to several positive outcomes. This enables indigenous communities to gain clearer entitlement to revenues. At the same time, project bankability improves because investors see stable titles and predictable revenue streams, then denuded land finally attracts long-term capital for reforestation and environmental recovery.

Philippine law already contains the building blocks for this shift in which the Indigenous Peoples Rights’ Act (IPRA, Republic Act No. 8371) awards ancestral domains to indigenous communities as private but communal property — recognizing that ownership arises from their long-standing ecological stewardship, including the reforestation of denuded land. Under this framework, the carbon benefits generated from such restoration rightly belong to them as fruits of ancestral domain ownership.

This principle also finds support in property economics, particularly in Harold Demsetz’s theory where ownership evolves to internalize the gains and responsibilities of productive activity. Assigning rights to those who manage and restore the resource ensures that the benefits of stewardship flow to those who bear its costs. At the same time, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) has begun operationalizing carbon accounting, verification, and certification systems (CAVCS), which explicitly include projects in ancestral domains and on private lands — providing a practical platform for ownership-based models.

Another market development makes the moment even more promising. The Philippines recently amended the Investors’ Lease Act (RA No. 12252, 2025) to extend the maximum permissible lease period for foreign investors on private lands not to exceed 99 years, a reform intended to increase long-term private investment certainty. While the amendment principally targets industrial and commercial investment, it also includes ecological conservation projects. The intention is to signal a shift in the investment climate: long-tenure property arrangements are now easier to structure, which can help match long-term restoration returns with long-term capital. This distinction is critical. Ancestral domains under IPRA are classified as private but communal property. As such, they are not subject to the constitutional restrictions on foreign equity or land ownership. This legal status creates room for compliant, long-term partnerships that bring in both local and foreign capital while fully respecting indigenous ownership and control.

Why does ownership matter for carbon financing and for IPs?

First, ownership clarifies entitlement. Lenders and carbon buyers prefer projects with well-defined legal rights to the asset generating revenue. If carbon credits are legally accessory to CADTs, indigenous communities can use projected carbon revenues to access readiness finance, technical assistance, or even structured pay-for-performance contracts that pay upfront for reforestation work.

Second, ownership aligns incentives: when communities own the credits, they have their own equity in the outcome, which strengthens accountability and ensures that reforestation efforts endure.

Third, ownership unlocks local benefits: generating wage jobs in plantation and nursery work, supporting community forestry enterprises, and enabling downstream value-chain activities such as seedling nurseries, eco-tourism, and wood-friendly agroforestry to be realized. These activities not only create sustainable livelihoods within the community but also build a foundation for inclusive local economies rooted in environmental stewardship.

Fourth, ownership helps reduce poverty and counters rural insurgency: Beyond economics, this model also contributes to social stability. Ownership-based projects turn ancestral lands into productive assets, helping reduce rural poverty and foster stability in upland areas long affected by marginalization and insurgency.

To convert opportunity into reality, several institutional steps are needed. They are practical, achievable, and policy-friendly:

  1. Affirm carbon rights as an accessory to CADTs. A clear administrative clarification that carbon benefits arising from restoration within titled ancestral domains belong to the CADT holder will remove ambiguity for buyers and financiers.
  2. Make indigenous communities the default project proponents. IPs should have the legal presumption of project proponent status for carbon activities in their domain, with the option to partner with technical developers — not to be supplanted by them.
  3. Standardize agreements and FPIC to reflect ownership. Agreements must disclose valuation, revenue flows, and service fees; FPIC must confirm who retains carbon rights and under what terms.
  4. Integrate CADTs into carbon registries and Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV). Registries and MRV protocols should recognize indigenous titleholders as registrants or named beneficiaries, so credits are legally and operationally tied to the community.
  5. Shift the Government’s role to capacity and finance facilitation. The government should only provide measurement, legal, and financial readiness support.
  6. Leverage long-term financing instruments. Align project periods and investment horizons with restoration timelines, a shift now more feasible under the recent reform of the Investors’ Lease Act (RA 12252).

Over time, carbon rights anchored on ancestral domain ownership can also be securitized and traded, much like other environmental assets. This would enable a wider range of local and foreign investors to participate in sustainable restoration while channeling capital directly to indigenous-led projects.

When these elements come together, carbon projects in ancestral domains become more than conservation drives: they become inclusive, investment-grade community enterprises that restore forests, create jobs, and provide predictable income for historically marginalized groups. For policymakers, donors, and private investors, the message is clear: prioritize property-aligned design. Doing so transforms carbon finance from a short-term program into a durable pathway for IPs’ prosperity.

Crucially, these efforts also advance the country’s climate adaptation goals. Restoring forest cover, as emphasized by the UP Resilience Institute, is one of the most effective and sustainable flood control measures — acting as a natural first line of defense that is far more resilient than dikes or purely structural interventions. Restoring cover has become more urgent in light of the deleterious effects of climate change on the Philippines, including the destructive floods and typhoons we are experiencing these days.

The goal is to realign incentives so that developers, buyers, and financiers work with indigenous owners on terms grounded in law and fairness, creating stronger projects, lower risk for investors, and lasting gains for the communities that have protected these lands for generations.

The Philippines can show how an ownership-anchored carbon strategy turns stewardship into prosperity. The policy changes are straightforward; the market signals are present; the social benefits are real. What remains is political will, clear rules, and practical capacity-building — small inputs that yield significant outcomes for climate, communities, and a more inclusive green economy.

 

Atty. Erwin L. Tiamson leads the Indigenous Peoples Property Rights Project of the Foundation for Economic Freedom. He teaches Property and Land Laws at the UP Geodetic Engineering Department and Arellano Law School and is a policy consultant specializing in land rights, environmental law, and institutional design.

Sun Life Philippines is still top life insurer in premium terms

SUN LIFE of Canada (Philippines), Inc. (Sun Life Philippines) kept its place as the top life insurer in the country in terms of premium income in the first nine months of 2025.

The insurer booked a premium income of P44.73 billion in the period as it improved its services and expanded its offerings, it said in a statement on Thursday.

It attributed its performance to its client-centric approach, the commitment of its advisors, and the dedication of its employees.

“At Sun Life, our commitment goes beyond providing financial solutions. As we celebrate our 130th anniversary, we strive to be the Filipinos’ Partner for Life in their journey towards brighter futures. We will continue to innovate and deliver services that empower them to achieve their goals and dreams,” Sun Life Philippines Chief Executive Officer and Country Head Benedict C. Sison said.

The company said it will work to maintain its top spot in the industry to meet the changing needs of its clients while ensuring sustainable growth and positive community impact.

“Sun Life Philippines continues to expand its product offerings and enhance its services to meet the evolving needs of Filipino families in an increasingly dynamic financial landscape.”

The life insurance sector booked a premium income of P299.45 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up by 13.77% from the same period a year prior, the Insurance Commission said. — A.M.C. Sy

Cautious consumption seen weakening seasonal hiring

https://www.philstar.com

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

SLOW AND UNEVEN government aid after recent typhoons could dampen fourth-quarter growth as households curb holiday spending following the hit to their incomes and job opportunities, analysts said.

Federation of Free Workers President Jose G. Matula said delayed assistance and fewer seasonal job openings could dampen holiday consumption, a key driver of gross domestic product (GDP).

“When there are fewer seasonal hires, wallets get thin,” he said via Viber, adding that families might postpone purchases and trim nonessential spending.

The Philippines posted modest economic growth in the third quarter, weighed down by the impact of natural disasters.

Third-quarter growth slowed to 4% year on year, from 5.5% a quarter earlier and 5.2% a year earlier.

The slowdown was largely driven by faltering infrastructure spending, as a high-profile corruption probe into government construction projects — particularly flood-control works — delayed billing and disbursements.

Private consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of GDP, slowed to 4.1% in the third quarter from 5.3% in Q2, dragged down by declining consumer confidence.

The labor market in September was also negatively impacted by natural disasters, as reflected in the most recent jobs report .

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported a 3.8% jobless rate for the month, weakening from 3.7% a year earlier.

September typically marks the start of the holiday season in the Philippines, when businesses ramp up hiring to meet rising demand in the run-up to December.

Mr. Matula called on the government to fast-track emergency job programs, and front-load public works so that “people regain (working) hours now, not after the holidays.”

“Relief work programs like Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers (TUPAD) and cash-for-work reach some displaced workers, but the support is inadequate and too slow,” he noted.

He said payouts from emergency employment schemes remain inconsistent, and most temporary jobs last only a few days — insufficient to replace lost income.

“Relief work should pay at least the regional minimum, be released on time, and automatically start after calamities,” he said.

He urged the government to link short-term cleanup work to long-term reconstruction jobs “with safety gear, proper hours, and union participation,” adding that success should be measured “by paid hours and decent jobs, not photo-ops.”

Labor Secretary Bienvenido E. Laguesma acknowledged that natural calamities have disrupted labor market conditions.

“Natural disasters act as (an) economic shock or disruptor that affects business spending, even leading to downsizing or, at times, closure, lower consumer confidence and demand, and even restrict(ing) availability and mobility of work-ers,” he said via Viber.

He said these factors are expected to weigh on near-term labor performance, but maintained that the overall outlook remains steady.

“We continue to see stable employment trends based on the last two months of the Labor Force Survey, which are well above our target of a 94–95% employment rate,” he added.

He has expressed hope that hiring will pick up in the runup to December.

The holidays might not bring its usual boost to the labor market this year, as weaker exports and recent natural disasters curb seasonal job creation, according to University of the Philippines School of Labor and Industrial Rela-tions Assistant Professor Benjamin B. Velasco.

He said holiday hiring in retail, services, and manufacturing is expected to soften, curbed by sluggish demand for garments and electronics — two of the country’s key export earners.

“Seasonal jobs are not as robust this year,” he said via Messenger, adding that external headwinds and domestic disruptions have made employers more cautious in expanding their workforce.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, noted the critical role of household consumption.

“The holidays usually bring the biggest boost to retail, food, travel, and services. A strong rebound in spending can help offset weaker government disbursements or exports,” he said via Viber.

Mr. Rivera added that income losses and job disruptions from the typhoons could suppress growth if consumers hold back.

“Private consumption is very sensitive to income and confidence, especially among lower- and middle-income households who drive the bulk of holiday demand. When families prioritize essentials or rebuild after disasters, dis-cretionary purchases drop, which could temper retail and services growth even into early 2026.”

Economist Reinielle Matt M. Erece of Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. noted that consumption remains the economy’s strongest pillar, accounting for the largest share of GDP and serving as the country’s main buffer against external shocks.

“This quarter, we may expect consumption to be the primary driver of growth. Especially as the holiday season takes effect, when households typically receive higher incomes and demonstrate higher propensity to spend,” he said via Viber.

“However, recent calamities may drive spending down as households focus more on preparations and recovery rather than consumption. In addition, weaker government spending may also dampen job absorption in govern-ment and even in the construction sector.”

Mr. Erece added that consumption growth may slow “more than desired” this quarter but said recovery could be possible next year if reforms move ahead.

“We may see proactive measures in 2026, not just in economic reforms but also politically as well. If we improve institutions sooner, recovery is definitely possible in 2026,” he added.

The public works scandal has rippled across key sectors of the economy, including the stock market and the peso. Investor confidence has taken a hit, with shares in construction and infrastructure-related firms sliding as deep-rooted vulnerabilities in government oversight were exposed.

The peso, meanwhile, has struggled against the dollar, reflecting broader concerns about fiscal policy and the potential slowdown in public investment.

Mr. Velasco urged policymakers to seize this moment as a wake-up call to adopt a more progressive industrial policy that strengthens domestic linkages in agriculture and manufacturing.

“We need an industrial strategy anchored not just on export markets, but also on local demand and national goals such as food security, green jobs, and sustainable growth,” he said.

Mr. Rivera noted that preventing a broader economic slowdown will depend on prompt government aid, stable prices, and a quicker recovery in disaster-hit areas to sustain household spending and support overall economic growth.

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