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Philippines says China’s ‘coercive, aggressive’ actions discussed with top U.S. security adviser

BRP SIERRA MADRE, a marooned transport ship which Philippine Marines live in as a military outpost, sits on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. — REUTERS

 – The Philippines on Tuesday said its national security adviser and his US counterpart discussed “coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions” by Beijing in the South China Sea, as a diplomatic row intensifies between the two Asian neighbors.

Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano “expressed his appreciation for the United States’ continued assurances and reaffirmation of its ironclad commitment” to their alliance, the Philippine National Security Council said in a statement.

The phone call on Monday was on the heels of a series of maritime run-ins and heated verbal exchanges between China and the Philippines that has triggered concern about an escalation at sea.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said last week there would be “countermeasures” against aggression by China’s coastguard, while Beijing accused the Philippines of treachery and reneging on a promise to tow away an old naval vessel grounded intentionally on a disputed shoal. Manila denies ever making that pledge.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro told Filipinos in an open letter on Tuesday to “not fall into the trap set by Chinese propaganda”.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its territory, policed by an armada of coastguard vessels, some more than 1,000 km away from its mainland. China has maintained its responses have been appropriate in the face of Philippine encroachment.

The rows come at a time when the Philippines and United States are deepening military ties, frustrating China, which sees Washington as interfering in its back yard.

The Philippines has insisted it never agreed to tow away the BRP Sierra Madre, which has been guarded by a handful of soldiers since it was grounded at the Second Thomas Shoal 25 years ago. China has been accused of blocking resupply missions to those troops.

The former spokesperson of Rodrigo Duterte, the previous president, has confirmed there had been an informal “gentleman’s agreement” with China to keep the status quo at the shoal, but not to tow the ship away.

NSC spokesperson Jonathan Malaya said the Marcos government had not seen any document to support China’s claim of a Philippine promise to remove the ship. – Reuters

Dutch court hears Shell’s appeal against landmark climate ruling

 – A Dutch court will on Tuesday hear Shell’s appeal against a landmark climate ruling which ordered it to drastically deepen planned greenhouse gas emission cuts.

The district court in The Hague in 2021 ordered the oil and gas giant to reduce its planet warming carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels.

The order related both to Shell’s own emissions and those caused by the buyers and users of its products. It came amid rising pressure on energy companies from investors, activists and governments to shift away from fossil fuels and rapidly ramp up investment in renewables.

Shell has argued that the order lacks a legal base and says companies cannot be held responsible for the emissions of their clients.

“We agree that the world needs urgent climate action, but we have a different view in how that goal should be achieved,” the company said in a statement on its website.

“By focusing on one company, and only on the supply of energy rather than the demand for it, we believe the ruling is ineffective and even counterproductive in addressing climate change.”

Friends of the Earth Netherlands, which brought the case, said it was confident heading into the appeal.

“The scientific basis on which we’ve founded our claims against Shell has only solidified,” the group’s lawyer Roger Cox said.

“I am confident that we can once again convince the judges that Shell needs to act in line with international climate agreements.”

Shell earlier this month weakened a 2030 carbon reduction target and scrapped a 2035 objective, citing expectations for strong gas demand and uncertainty in the energy transition, even as it affirmed a plan to cut emissions to net zero by 2050.

The company in its statement before the appeal said it was “not ignoring” the court order, pointing out its $10-15 billion investments in low-carbon energy solutions between 2023 and the end of 2025.

“We believe the actions we are taking are consistent with the ruling and its end of 2030 timeline,” the company said.

Shell now targets a 15-20% reduction in net carbon intensity of its energy products by 2030, compared with 2016 intensity levels. It had previously aimed for a 20% cut.

The court has planned four days of hearings for the appeal this month. A verdict is expected in the second half of the year. – Reuters

Singapore convicts first suspect in $2.2 billion money laundering case, media reports

STOCK PHOTO | Image from Rawpixel

 – A Singapore court on Tuesday convicted the first defendant in its biggest-ever money laundering case, local media reported, in one of the city-state’s highest-profile crime probes over which more than $2.2 billion of assets has been seized or frozen.

Defendant Su Wenqiang, a Cambodian national, admitted to 11 charges of money laundering and taking proceeds from illegal remote gambling, Channel News Asia reported.

The Straits Times newspaper said he was sentenced to 13 months imprisonment.

Reuters could not verify the reports and attorney general’s chambers did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation.

Su, who holds passports from Cambodia, Vanuatu and China, is one of 10 foreigners holding multiple citizenships arrested in Singapore in August last year in simultaneous raids.

The raids captured huge attention locally, with S$1 billion ($739.37 million) worth of luxury properties, cars, gold bars, handbags and jewellry seized.

Police had earlier said the 10 suspects were allegedly “laundering the proceeds of their overseas organized crime activities, including scams and online gambling”. – Reuters

US anti-Muslim incidents hit record high in 2023 due to Israel-Gaza war

STOCK IMAGE | Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

 – Reported discrimination and attacks against Muslims and Palestinians reached a record high in the U.S. in 2023, driven by rising Islamophobia and bias as the Israel-Gaza war raged late in the year, data from an advocacy group showed on Tuesday.

Complaints totaled 8,061 in 2023, a 56% rise from the year before and the highest since the Council on American-Islamic Relations began records nearly 30 years ago. About 3,600 of those incidents occurred from October to December, CAIR said.

Human rights advocates have similarly reported a global rise in Islamophobia, anti-Palestinian bias and antisemitism since the latest eruption of conflict in the Middle East.

US incidents have included the fatal October stabbing of 6-year-old Palestinian American Wadea Al-Fayoume in Illinois, the November shooting of three students of Palestinian descent in Vermont and the February stabbing of a Palestinian American man in Texas.

CAIR’s report said 2023 saw a “resurgence of anti-Muslim hate” after the first ever recorded annual drop in complaints in 2022. In the first nine months of 2023, such incidents averaged around 500 a month before jumping to nearly 1,200 a month in the last quarter.

“The primary force behind this wave of heightened Islamophobia was the escalation of violence in Israel and Palestine in October 2023,” the report said.

The most numerous complaints in 2023 were in the categories of immigration and asylum, employment discrimination, hate crimes and education discrimination, CAIR said.

Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s subsequent military assault on Hamas-governed Gaza has killed over 32,000 people, according to the local health ministry, displaced nearly all its 2.3 million population, put Gaza on the brink of starvation and led to genocide allegations that Israel denies.

CAIR said it compiled the numbers by reviewing public statements and videos as well as reports from public calls, emails and an online complaint system. It contacted people whose incidents were reported in the media. – Reuters

Green mortgages set to take off as US makes homes fit for future

STOCK PHOTO | Image by PIRO from Pixabay

 – Jules Fishelman had ambitious plans to green up his century-old home in Burlington, Vermont, but the cost and logistics felt overwhelming.

“I’ve had in mind dozens of things I really wanted to do to make it more comfortable, but also to deal with the energy footprint – how much energy it uses,” Mr. Fishelman said by phone from the converted duplex he has called home since 2001.

Given Vermont’s icy winters, pipes can freeze easily, said the 50-year-old father of two, making for steep heating bills.

Then a few years ago, he stumbled on an option he had not realized even existed: a local credit union was running a pilot program letting participants roll the cost of energy-efficiency upgrades into their home mortgage.

He signed up, agreeing to spread his payments over 15 years.

After spending about $25,000 on works – a new electric heat pump to replace the legacy gas system, better insulation and more – the Fishelman family is warm as toast this winter, the first since the project ended.

“My mortgage rate stayed pretty manageable, and my house got twice as comfortable.”

With billions of dollars in federal subsidies soon expected to start flowing in a push to make housing more sustainable, some experts expect interest in green mortgages to boom.

“People are realizing we have a lot of inefficient housing stock, and upgrading the efficiency of our housing is important at a time when the costs of energy are only becoming greater,” said Simeon Chapin, head of social impact at VSECU, part of the New England Federal Credit Union that worked with Mr. Fishelman.

Green mortgages could become an important way for homeowners to pay for that work, said Kevin Kane, chief economist at Green Homeowners United, a Wisconsin-based firm that helps homeowners cut their carbon emissions.

“If we can figure this out, this is huge for residential energy – and we’re so close to making it happen.”

Mr. Kane said he gets near-daily calls about the new subsidies.

“In my mind, mortgage lenders and Realtors (real estate agents) are a hidden weapon to help fight climate change, and these green mortgages are the way we’ll help make this happen.”

 

A $2-TRILLION MARKET

Consumer green lending in general has been rising, said Neda Arabshahi, senior vice president of the Inclusiv Center for Resiliency and Clean Energy, which works with credit unions in under-served markets.

Over the past three years, the center has helped train more than 700 community financial institutions on how to help clients finance a host of green initiatives, from solar panels to EV charging stations, she said.

“When we started talking to people three years ago, no community lenders were doing this,” she said. “Now we’re seeing a lot of movement.”

The energy think tank RMI estimates a $2-trillion green mortgage market could grow within a decade, upgrading 8.7 million homes – saving consumers about $12 billion and averting 57 million tons of carbon emissions.

The idea of an energy-efficiency mortgage has been around for decades but has hit repeated industry resistance, said Richard Faesy, principal at Energy Futures Group, a consultancy that co-led the VSECU pilot project.

“There’s a lot of financing around clean-energy programs, but really the niche that I think has the potential for tremendous change is with mortgage financing.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association said it does not track energy-efficiency mortgages, and that it opposes some federal measures to help homeowners pay for green upgrades.

The green-mortgage market has grown overseas, too.

European interest was initially sparked by U.S. moves but the trend has since taken hold, with efforts now afoot to expand the market globally, said Luca Bertalot, secretary general of the European Mortgage Federation – European Covered Bond Council, which manages all mortgage lenders in Europe.

“In Europe we have to retrofit 250 million houses,” said Mr. Bertalot, who also coordinates a European Union green-mortgage initiative spanning 70 lending institutions across the bloc.

Now the push is on to help countries far beyond Europe set up similar projects, from Kenya to Malaysia and Colombia.

Climate change “will not be solved in Europe – this is a global problem,” Mr. Bertalot said.

 

GREEN VALUE

The Vermont pilot was made possible with a Department of Energy grant that helped offer lower interest rates for clients and opened the door for consultants to coordinate their works.

VSECU wants to build on its pilot and pick the green mortgage program back up – but obstacles remain, said Laurie Fielder, its vice president of green lending.

Today’s high interest-rate climate aside, such mortgages require specialized, additional work, she said.

“It’s about getting the financial institution into a position where they can feel as though they can put the resources into this,” Fielder said.

It is also hard to ensure that new, green features are accurately reflected in a home’s overall value, she said.

US real-estate value is shaped by third-party appraisers, typically brought in by a lender to analyze their risk.

But the appraisal industry has been slow to keep up with greener construction techniques, said Sandra K. Adomatis, president of the Appraisal Institute, an industry association.

“Building science has changed dramatically,” she said.

Ms. Adomatis said it was up to lenders to hire appraisers with know-how – but ultimately the market must drive change.

“The public is still not familiar enough to understand the benefits” of energy efficiency, she said, so real estate agents and developers often don’t advertise those features.

While the institute has run classes on energy efficiency for more than 15 years, appraiser uptake remains slow, she said.

“They’ll say, ‘A lender never asks if I have that. When they start asking, I’ll start taking the classes.'” – Reuters

Lawmakers urge Biden to call out more Chinese biotech firms

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Satheesh Sankaran from Pixabay

A Republican and a Democratic member of Congress are calling on the Biden administration to add seven Chinese biotech firms to a list created by the Defense Department to highlight firms it says are allegedly working with Beijing’s military.

In a letter dated March 29 seen by Reuters, Republican Michael Gallagher and Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to take the action since Beijing could harness the power of biotechnology to strengthen its military.

“Urgent action is needed,” said the lawmakers, who serve as the chairman and ranking member of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, citing risks that China could “create synthetic pathogens” to gain military advantage.

“The Department of Defense provides responses directly to members of Congress in matters of this kind,” a department spokesman said in a statement. “We have no additional information or further details to release at this time.”

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said “some people” in the United States should stop suppressing Chinese companies under false pretexts.

“When it comes to ‘using biotech to strengthen its military,’ the US side should reflect on itself, rather than groundlessly attacking and smearing China,” the spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, said in a statement.

The letter is the latest sign of growing concern in Washington about China’s biotech sector.

The US Congress is considering legislation to bar federal agencies from contracting with China’s BGI and WuXi AppTec, among others, as part of an effort to keep China from accessing American genetic data and personal health information.

US intelligence officials in late February told senators working on the bill that Chinese pharmaceutical firm WuXi AppTec had transferred US intellectual property to Beijing without consent, Reuters reported.

Being placed on the Pentagon’s Chinese military-backed companies list doesn’t involve immediate bans. However, it can be a blow to companies’ reputations and represents a warning to US firms considering doing business with them. It could also put pressure on the Treasury Department to sanction them.

In their letter, Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi call for the addition of Innomics and STOmics, which they allege are subsidiaries of BGI. BGI Genomics Co., a publicly listed subsidiary of BGI Group, was added to the list in 2022.

Reuters reported in 2021 that BGI has made sales worldwide of prenatal tests developed in collaboration with China’s military and has used them to collect genetic data from millions of women for sweeping research on traits of populations.

BGI has said it is not controlled by the Chinese government or military and that it respects human rights.

The letter also names Origincell, for allegedly operating a bio-storage cell tank and having ties to the Chinese military and Vazyme Biotech, which allegedly makes bioactive compounds and has investors with ties to the military.

“STOmics Americas is a U.S.-based company that has no operations in China nor any connections whatsoever with the Chinese military,” the BGI Group said in a statement.

The other companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Lawmakers in February asked that WuXi AppTec be considered for the list. The company has said it poses no national security risk to any country. It also has said it is not aware of any unauthorized transfers of any US client’s IP to China. – Reuters

US, Britain announce partnership on AI safety, testing

FREEPIK

 – The United States and Britain on Monday announced a new partnership on the science of artificial intelligence safety, amid growing concerns about upcoming next-generation versions.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and British Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington to jointly develop advanced AI model testing, following commitments announced at an AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park in November.

“We all know AI is the defining technology of our generation,” Ms. Raimondo said. “This partnership will accelerate both of our institutes work across the full spectrum to address the risks of our national security concerns and the concerns of our broader society.”

Britain and the United States are among countries establishing government-led AI safety institutes.

Britain said in October its institute would examine and test new types of AI, while the United States said in November it was launching its own safety institute to evaluate risks from so-called frontier AI models and is now working with 200 companies and entites.

Under the formal partnership, Britain and the United States plan to perform at least one joint testing exercise on a publicly accessible model and are considering exploring personnel exchanges between the institutes. Both are working to develop similar partnerships with other countries to promote AI safety.

“This is the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world,” Ms. Donelan said. “AI is already an extraordinary force for good in our society, and has vast potential to tackle some of the world’s biggest challenges, but only if we are able to grip those risks.”

Generative AI – which can create text, photos and videos in response to open-ended prompts – has spurred excitement as well as fears it could make some jobs obsolete, upend elections and potentially overpower humans and catastrophic effects.

In a joint interview with Reuters Monday, Ms. Raimondo and Ms. Donelan urgent joint action was needed to address AI risks.

“Time is of the essence because the next set of models are about to be released, which will be much, much more capable,” Ms. Donelan said. “We have a focus one the areas that we are dividing and conquering and really specializing.”

Ms. Raimondo said she would raise AI issues at a meeting of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council in Belgium Thursday.

The Biden administration plans to soon announce additions to its AI team, Raimondo said. “We are pulling in the full resources of the US government.”

Both countries plan to share key information on capabilities and risks associated with AI models and systems and technical research on AI safety and security.

In October, Mr. Biden signed an executive order that aims to reduce the risks of AI. In January, the Commerce Department said it was proposing to require US cloud companies to determine whether foreign entities are accessing U.S. data centers to train AI models.

Britain said in February it would spend more than 100 million pounds ($125.5 million) to launch nine new research hubs and AI train regulators about the technology.

Ms. Raimondo said she was especially concerned about the threat of AI applied to bioterrorism or a nuclear war simulation.

“Those are the things where the consequences could be catastrophic and so we really have to have zero tolerance for some of these models being used for that capability,” she said. – Reuters

Max’s Group to convene on May 9 for its annual meeting of stockholders

 

 


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BSP sees 3.4-4.2% inflation for March

DIFFERENT VARIETIES of rice are sold at Paco Market, March 13, 2024. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

HEADLINE INFLATION likely further accelerated in March and might have even breached the target for the first time in three months, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.

Inflation likely settled within 3.4% to 4.2%, the central bank said in a statement on Monday.

The upper end of the BSP’s forecast could have exceeded the 2-4% target for the first time in three months.

The lower end of the forecast would be unchanged from 3.4% in February.

Year on year, inflation would be slower than 7.6% a year earlier.

A BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 3.8% for March inflation, within the BSP’s forecast.

“Continued price increases of rice and meat along with higher domestic oil prices and electricity rates are the primary sources of upward price pressures for the month,” the BSP said.

Latest data from the Agriculture department showed that the average retail price of a kilo of local well-milled rice ranged from P49 to P55 as of March 27, higher than P39 to P46 average a year ago. A kilo of regular milled rice costs P50, higher than the P34 to P40 a year ago.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) raised the rate for a typical household by P0.0229 to P11.9397 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in March due to the higher transmission charge.

Fuel prices continued to rise in March. Pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P2.30 a liter for gasoline and P0.65 a liter each for diesel and kerosene.

“Meanwhile, lower prices of fruits, vegetables and fish along with the peso appreciation could contribute to downward price pressures,” the BSP said.

The local statistics authority is set to release March inflation data on April 5.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. said inflation might continue to breach the target in the coming months.

“We anticipate headline inflation to surge past 4% year on year starting in March with a hefty contribution from the rice consumer price index (CPI) and latent drought effects on the prices of the other crops, with the worst-case scenario of nearly 5%,” he said in an e-mail.

In February, rice inflation surged to 23.7%, the fastest since 24.6% in February 2009.

Mr. Asuncion said his estimates show that inflation could peak at 5% in May.

Colegio de San Juan de Letran Graduate School Associate Professor Emmanuel J. Lopez in an e-mail said inflation could accelerate in March amid elevated petroleum prices and effects from the El Niño dry spell.

An uptick in inflation could prompt the central bank to keep rates higher for longer.

“As mentioned by the BSP, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, and even the President himself, the central bank will likely take its time before loosening the monetary reins,” Aris D. Dacanay, HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), said in an e-mail.

“Inflation risks are still too tilted to the upside while strong growth grants the central bank the luxury to keep its policy rate high for longer,” he added.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. earlier this month said inflation is still the country’s biggest problem and that it might be too soon to cut rates.

To tame inflation, the BSP kept its benchmark rate steady at a near 17-year high of 6.5% for a third-straight meeting in February. It raised borrowing costs by 450 basis points (bps) from May 2022 to October 2023.

The Monetary Board will hold its next policy review on April 8.

Manufacturing activity further slows in March

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 50.9 in March, a “modest improvement” from the 51 reading in February. — PHILIPPINE STAR/KJ ROSALES

PHILIPPINE factory activity expanded at a slower pace in March, as production contracted for the first time since July 2022, a survey by S&P Global showed.

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 50.9 in March, a “modest improvement” from 51 in February.

This matched the PMI in January and was the weakest reading since 50.6 in September last year.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of select ASEAN economies, March 2024A PMI reading above 50 denotes better operating conditions than in the preceding month, while a reading below 50 shows the opposite.

The Philippines’ latest PMI reading marked the seventh straight month of improving operating conditions.

“The health of the Filipino manufacturing sector revealed some underlying concerns as the first quarter came to a close,” Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in the report. “Contributing to the somewhat mixed picture was a fresh fall in production levels, with companies attributing this to material shortages.” 

In March, the Philippines’ PMI reading was the second-fastest among six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-countries, behind only Indonesia (54.2).

Vietnam (49.9), Thailand (49.1), Malaysia (48.4) and Myanmar (48.3) posted contractions in March.

The average ASEAN headline PMI improved to 51.5 in March from 50.4 in February, which S&P Global said signaled a “solid improvement in operating conditions.”

In the Philippines, S&P Global noted that production in March contracted for the first time since July 2022 due to shortages in raw materials.

“The downturn came despite firms in general recording sustained demand for goods. However, if firms are able to successfully secure materials and build their stocks, the downturn in output could be fleeting,” Ms. Baluch said.

Philippine manufacturers reported growth in new orders in March but these were “historically subdued.”

“The rate of growth moderated on the month and was the second weakest in the current seven-month sequence of expansion,” S&P Global said.

Meanwhile, companies started to hire more workers in March, with job growth the strongest in a year and a half.

Ms. Baluch noted manufacturing companies had also ramped up buying activity in March, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

While costs of raw materials increased due to El Niño and shortages, S&P Global said some suppliers tempered price hikes to boost sales.

“As a result, cost burdens rose at the weakest pace since October 2020. Furthermore, Filipino goods producers reduced their selling prices for the first time in nearly four years, albeit only fractionally,” it said.

Manufacturers in the Philippines kept an optimistic outlook on output, although confidence declined for a third straight month.

“Sentiment among manufacturers weakened and was the least optimistic in nearly four years. Firms were concerned that increased market competition would limit growth prospects. However, hopes of demand conditions domestically and globally strengthening continued to buoy confidence levels,” Ms. Baluch said.

The headline PMI measures manufacturing conditions through the weighted average of five indices: new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and stocks of purchases (10%).

Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the shortage in raw materials experienced by manufacturers might have been due to the Red Sea shipping crisis.

In a Viber message, he said the shortage is only temporary, but manufacturers might have to adjust operations.

“Overall, manufacturers may have to deal with margin compression but may also be wary of potential market loss if they increase their prices,” Mr. Asuncion said. “With El Niño weakening… manufacturing may soon pick up once more as we move into the second half of 2024 when interest rate cuts are largely expected by the market.”

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the slight easing in manufacturing activity might have been due to the Holy Week break.

“The local manufacturing gauge is still in expansion mode for nearly all months since September 2021 (except for the contraction mode in August 2023 at 49.7), therefore still one of the bright spots for the Philippine economy,” he said in an e-mail.

FACTORY ACTIVITY IN ASIA
Meanwhile, factory activity in many Asian economies weakened in March despite a rebound in China as lackluster domestic demand dragged growth, surveys showed on Monday, clouding the outlook for a once fast-expanding and key driver of the global economy.

Export powerhouses Japan and South Korea saw manufacturing activities shrink, as well as Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam in a sign of the fragile state of the region’s economies.

China’s Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.1 in March from 50.9 the previous month, a private survey showed, expanding at the fastest pace in 13 months with business confidence hitting an 11-month high.

The findings join an official PMI survey released on Sunday that showed China’s factory activity expanded for the first time in six months.

The rebound in China, which is struggling to mount a strong economic revival partly due to a protracted property crisis, provides some welcome relief to Beijing and investors globally.

Yet, the weakness in other parts of Asia highlights the challenge the region’s policy makers face as they wrestle with patchy signs of recovery in global demand and uncertainty on when the US Federal Reserve would start to cut interest rates.

“China’s exports are picking up a bit but that’s because their goods are cheap. That means other Asian countries must compete with China for demand that’s not growing,” said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“With no clear driver of global growth, it’s hard to paint a rosy outlook for Asia,” he added.

Japan’s final au Jibun Bank PMI stood at 48.2 in March, the highest since November and recovering from February’s 47.2 which marked the fastest contraction in over three-and-a-half years.

But activity contracted for a 10th straight month as new export orders slumped, reflecting souring sentiment in key markets like China and North America, the survey showed.

South Korea’s manufacturing activity also weakened in March as slowing domestic demand offset robust overseas sales, with the PMI falling to 49.8 in March from 50.7 in February. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz with Reuters

February budget gap widens

BW FILE PHOTO

THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT’S (NG) budget deficit ballooned in February amid double-digit growth in state spending, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) reported on Monday.

Data from the BTr showed that the fiscal gap widened by 54.81% to P164.7 billion from P106.4 billion a year earlier.

Month on month, the budget balance swung back to a deficit from the P88-billion surplus in January.

National Government Fiscal Performance“The wider budget gap stemmed from the 22.14% year-over-year increase in expenditures, matched with moderate revenue growth of 5.73%,” the BTr said in a press release.

In February, government expenditures surged by 22.14% to P388.7 billion from P318.2 billion a year ago.

The BTr said expenditure growth was driven by “higher releases to local government units, as well as larger disbursements recorded in the Department of Health and Department of Social Welfare and Development for their banner health and social protection programs, respectively.”

“Similarly, higher capital expenditures posted by the Department of Public Works and Highways contributed to the growth of February 2024 disbursements,” it added.

Interest payments jumped by 40.22% to P47.8 billion in February from P34.1 billion a year ago.

Primary spending, which refers to total expenditures minus interest payments, climbed by 19.97% to P340.9 billion from P284.1 billion a year ago.

Meanwhile, revenues rose by 5.73% to P224 billion from P211.9 billion a year earlier.

Tax revenues went up by 8.56% year on year to P211.3 billion, as Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) collections increased by 6.65% to P138 billion and Bureau of Customs (BoC) revenues climbed by 12.19% to P70.6 billion.

On the other hand, nontax revenues declined by 26.21% to P12.7 billion in February. Revenues from other offices plunged by 42.62% to P6.2 billion due to “lower Malampaya proceeds.”

During the month, BTr income inched up by 1.56% to P6.5 billion due to higher dividend remittances and the NG’s share from Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. income.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., said the jump in state spending in February was expected.

“It’s the start of the year and understandably the NG would like to get spending going via local government units, health and social services and the flagship infrastructure development,” he said in a Viber message.

“Note that interest payments also were up 40% year on year, and this is also within our expectation of NG’s push for fiscal consolidation and debt payments,” he added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted that high inflation and elevated interest rates had driven up expenditures.

Inflation accelerated for the first time in five months to 3.4% in February.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept its benchmark rate steady for a third straight meeting at a near 17-year high of 6.5% in February.

TWO-MONTH DEFICIT
In the first two months of 2024, the budget deficit swelled by 26.56% to P76.7 billion from P60.6 billion in the year-ago period as revenue collection and expenditures grew by double digits.

Government revenues jumped by 15.32% to P645.8 billion from P560 billion a year earlier.

Tax revenues jumped by 18.66% to P596.5 billion as BIR and Customs collections increased by 22.58% to P446.4 billion and 7.84% to P144 billion, respectively.

Nontax revenues, on the other hand, dropped by 13.95% to P49.4 billion. This as BTr income slid by 3.8% to P23.2 billion, while revenues from other offices fell by 21.33% to P26.1 billion.

The BTr said the income drop was “mainly on account of lower interest income on NG deposits and BTr investments.”

Meanwhile, expenditures rose by 16.42% to P722.5 billion in January-February from P620.7 billion a year ago.

Interest payments surged by 50.53% to P122 billion, while primary expenditures went up by 11.29% to P600.5 billion.

“For the coming months, a further pickup in business and other economic activities would still lead to higher government tax revenue collections amid intensified tax collection efforts, as well as other priority tax reform measures,” Mr. Ricafort said.

This year, the NG’s deficit ceiling is capped at P1.39 trillion or 5.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).

As of end-2023, the deficit as a share of GDP stood at 6.2%. The government is targeting to bring this further down to 3% by 2028. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

World Bank raises Philippine GDP growth projection for 2025

Motorists are stuck in traffic during morning rush along the southbound lane of EDSA in Cubao, Quezon City, April 1, 2024. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

THE WORLD BANK (WB) maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year but raised its 2025 growth projection, amid expectations of higher consumer spending and foreign investments.

In its latest East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update, the World Bank said it expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.8% this year, the fastest in Southeast Asia along with Cambodia.

The Philippines and Cambodia are seen to expand faster than Vietnam (5.5%), Indonesia (4.9%), Malaysia (4.3%), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (4.0%), Timor-Leste (3.6%), Thailand (2.8%) and Myanmar (1.3%).

For 2025, the World Bank raised its GDP forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%.

However, the World Bank’s growth forecasts for the Philippines are lower than the government’s target of 6.5-7.5% for 2024 and 6.5-8% for 2025 to 2028.

“What has sustained growth in the Philippines, like much of the region, has been consumption and the recovery in services,” WB East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said at a virtual briefing on Monday.

He noted foreign investment flows into the Philippines might increase after the government implemented significant reforms such as Republic Act No. 11659 or the Public Service Act, which allows full foreign ownership in key sectors such as telecommunications and airlines.

“(The reforms) should begin to pay off in terms of greater foreign investment, which though in the short run… the flows have been less strong than we would have expected,” Mr. Mattoo said.

Climate and geopolitical shocks, as well as elevated inflation and high interest rates are risks to the growth outlook.

“If there is a resurgence in inflation, for example in the United States, which might well see interest rates even higher for longer, that would certainly affect growth throughout the region as we have estimated,” he said.

The World Bank projects GDP growth for East Asia and the Pacific at 4.5% this year and 4.3% for 2025. This is slower than the region’s projected 5.1% expansion in 2023.

“Most economies in developing East Asia and Pacific, other than several Pacific island countries, are growing faster than the rest of the world, but slower than before the pandemic,” the World Bank said.

The region’s slower growth is partially due to China, whose economy is expected to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.3% next year.

“China is aiming to transition to a more balanced growth path but the quest to ignite alternative demand drivers is proving difficult,” the World Bank said.

Excluding China, the region’s GDP is projected to expand by 4.6% this year and 4.8% in 2025.

“The likely rebound in global goods trade and the gradual easing of global financial conditions are expected to offset the impact of China slowing down,” it said.

POVERTY TO DECLINE
Meanwhile, the World Bank expects Philippine GDP growth to average at 5.9% from 2024 to 2026, driven by strong domestic demand.

“The medium-term outlook will be driven by robust private consumption activity, supported by declining inflation, a healthy labor market and steady remittance inflows,” it said in its Macro Poverty Outlook for the Philippines.

It expects poverty in the Philippines to decline despite risks from extreme climate events.

“Poverty incidence using the World Bank’s poverty line for lower middle-income countries of $3.65/day, PPP (purchasing power parity) is projected to decrease from 17.8% in 2021 to 12.2% in 2024 and further decrease to 9.3% in 2026,” it said.

The World Bank said risks to this outlook include high inflation that would “dampen economic activity by keeping the policy rate higher for longer, erode purchasing power and threaten to deepen poverty and worsen economic vulnerability.”

“The possibility of higher-than-expected global inflation, still tight global financing conditions, a further slowdown in the growth of China and escalating geopolitical tensions could cause a sharper-than-expected growth slowdown which would further dampen external demand,” it added. — B.M.D.Cruz