WASHINGTON — The prospect of a US strike against Iran has exposed divisions in the coalition of supporters that brought President Donald J. Trump to power, with some of his base urging him not to get the country involved in a new Middle East war.

Some of Mr. Trump’s most prominent Republican allies, including top lieutenant Steve Bannon, have found themselves in the unusual position of being at odds with a president who largely shares their isolationist tendencies.

Mr. Bannon, one of many influential voices from Mr. Trump’s “America First” coalition, on Wednesday urged caution about the US military joining Israel in trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in the absence of a diplomatic deal.

“We can’t do this again,” Mr. Bannon told reporters at an event sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor in Washington. “We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.”

The anti-interventionist part of the Republican Party is watching with alarm as Mr. Trump has moved swiftly from seeking a peaceful diplomatic settlement with Iran to possibly having the United States support Israel’s military campaign, including the use of a 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bomb.

The criticism shows the opposition Mr. Trump could face from his right-leaning “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) flank should he join the fight, a step that Iran has warned would have big consequences for Americans without specifying what that might be.

A decision by Mr. Trump to enter the conflict would be a sharp departure from his usual caution about foreign entanglements. It could impact his campaign to foster good relations in the Gulf and could be a distraction from his efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and make tariff deals with countries around the world.

The MAGA coalition propelled Mr. Trump into office in the 2016 and 2024 elections and remains critically important to him even though he is prevented by the US Constitution from running for a third term.

Upsetting that base could erode Mr. Trump’s popularity and factor into whether Republicans hang on to control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.

‘IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON’
Asked about the rift on Wednesday, Mr. Trump appeared unconcerned that some in his base could be turning its back on him, at least on this issue.

“My supporters are more in love with me today, and I’m in love with them more than they were even at election time,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House. “I only want one thing: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

He said some of his supporters “are a little bit unhappy now” but that others agree with him that Iran cannot become a nuclear power.

“I’m not looking to fight. But if it’s a choice between them fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do,” Mr. Trump said.

Marc Short, an ally of former Vice-President Mike Pence who served as Mr. Trump’s legislative director during his first term, called the division over Iran within Mr. Trump’s party a “pretty large rift.” He said he thought Mr. Trump’s base would stay with him despite the differences, however.

“The divisions are obviously coming out in the open in this moment, but ultimately I think that most of the president’s followers are loyal to him more so than any worldview,” he said.

Mr. Short said standing with Israel could help Mr. Trump politically, too. Traditionally conservative voters favor standing by Israel. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in March, 48% of Republicans agreed with a statement that the US should use its military power to defend Israel from threats no matter where the threats come from, compared to 28% who disagreed. Among Democrats, 25% agreed and 52% disagreed.

International experts believe Iran has been intent on developing a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s denials, and Israel believes it would be at risk as a result. US officials believe if Iran possessed an atomic weapon it would trigger an nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

ISRAELIS NEED TO GET JOB DONE
Mr. Bannon, host of the popular “War Room” podcast, said “the Israelis need to finish what they started” and that Mr. Trump should slow down deliberations over US involvement and explain his decision-making.

“This is one of the most ancient civilizations in the world, okay, with 92 million people. This is not something you play around with. You have to think this through at this level, and the American people have to be on board. You can’t just dump this on them,” he said.

Other influential MAGA voices with similar messages of worry include former Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson and US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and long-time Trump ally.

“Anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA,” Ms. Greene said in a social media post on Sunday. “We are sick and tired of foreign wars. All of them.”

But another Trump ally, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said on Fox News on Tuesday that he hopes Mr. Trump will help Israel “finish the job” because Iran represents “an existential threat to our friends in Israel.”

The rift was on full display when Mr. Carlson, on his streaming program, clashed with Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas late on Tuesday.

A clip from Mr. Carlson’s interview with Mr. Cruz went viral with Mr. Carlson strongly criticizing the senator for seeking regime change in Iran, and Mr. Cruz expressing support for the president.

“You don’t know anything about Iran!” Mr. Carlson told Mr. Cruz.

“I am not the Tucker Carlson expert on Iran,” Mr. Cruz fired back.

“You’re a senator who’s calling for the overthrow of the government,” Mr. Carlson retorted.

Vice-President JD Vance tried to tamp down talk of a rift on Monday with a social media post defending the president.

“People are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue,” he said.

Now allies and opponents are waiting on Mr. Trump’s decision-making process. The president said on Wednesday afternoon he had some ideas on how to proceed but had not made a final decision. — Reuters

FINANCIAL MARKETS may be in for a “knee-jerk” selloff if the US military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs.

Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as investors weighed the chance of supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and potential direct US involvement. The price of crude remains up almost 9% since Israel launched attacks against Iran last Friday in a bid to cripple its ability to produce nuclear weapons.

With major US stock indexes trading near record highs despite uncertainty about Mr. Trump’s trade policy, some investors worry that equities may be particularly vulnerable to sources of additional global uncertainty.

Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said US stocks might initially sell off should Mr. Trump order the US military to become more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but that a faster escalation might also bring the situation to an end sooner.

“I could see the initial knee-jerk would be, ‘this is bad,’” Mr. Carlson said. “I think it will bring things to a head quicker.”

Wednesday’s dip in crude, along with a modest 0.3% increase in the S&P 500, came after Mr. Trump declined to answer reporters’ questions about whether the US was planning to strike Iran but said Iran had proposed to come for talks at the White House. Adding to uncertainty, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Mr. Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender.

US Treasury yields fell as concerns over the war in Iran boosted safe haven demand for the debt.

The US military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, further stirring speculation about US intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure.

With investors viewing the dollar as a safe haven, it has gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the US currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc.

“I don’t think personally that we are going to join this war. I think Trump is going to do everything possible to avoid it. But if it can’t be avoided, then initially that’s going to be negative for the markets,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “Gold would shoot up. Yields would probably come down lower and the dollar would probably rally.”

Barclays warned that crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports are reduced by half, and that prices could rise about $100 in the “worst case” scenario of a wider conflagration. Brent crude was last at about $76.

Citigroup economists warned in a note on Wednesday that materially higher oil prices “would be a negative supply shock for the global economy, lowering growth and boosting inflation — creating further challenges for central banks that are already trying to navigate the risks from tariffs.”

Mr. Trump taking a “heavier hand” would not be a surprise to the market, mitigating any negative asset price reaction, Mr. Carlson said, while adding that he was still not convinced that the US would take a heavier role.

Trades on the Polymarket betting website point to a 63% expectation of “US military action against Iran before July,” down from as much as an 82% likelihood on Tuesday, but still above a 35% chance before the conflict began last Friday.

The S&P 500 energy sector index has rallied over 2% in the past four sessions, lifted by a 3.8% gain in Exxon Mobil and 5% rally in Valero Energy. That compares to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 over the same period, reflecting investor concerns about the impact of higher oil prices on the economy, and about growing global uncertainty generated by the conflict.

Turmoil in the Middle East comes as investors are already fretting about the effect of Mr. Trump’s tariffs on the global economy.

The World Bank last week slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a “significant headwind” for nearly all economies.

Defense stocks, already lifted by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, have made modest gains since Israel launched its attacks. The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense index hit record highs early last week in the culmination of a rebound of over 30% from losses in the wake of Mr. Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.

Even after the latest geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 remains just 2% below its February record high close.

“Investors want to be able to look past this, and until we see reasons to believe that this is going to be a much larger regional conflict with the US perhaps getting involved and a high chance of escalating, you’re going to see the market want to shrug this off as much as it can,” Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, said at an investor conference on Wednesday. — Reuters

SEOUL — Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans have thronged the Blue House in central Seoul in recent months to get their last glimpse of the historic compound before it is returned to official use as the home and office of the country’s president.

Lee Jae Myung, who won a snap election on June 3, plans to move into the Blue House soon and access to some buildings will be restricted from mid-July, the presidential office announced last week.

Former leader Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from office in April after briefly declaring martial law, broke with decades of tradition by shifting his office and residence out of the compound and opening it to the public.

“I heard this place will likely be closed soon. So I wanted to come at least once before that happened,” said An Hyun, 62, an office worker from Wonju in northeastern Gangwon Province who was visiting the Blue House this week.

“Now that I’ve seen it, it’s really neat and tidy. I don’t understand why they moved out of here,” said An.

Soon after taking office in 2022, Mr. Yoon moved the presidential office to a cluster of former defense ministry buildings in another area of central Seoul.

The move whipped up a fierce debate among experts on feng shui, a practice that originated in ancient China to ensure harmony between people and their environment, after some political rivals accused Mr. Yoon of being influenced by those who said the Blue House location was inauspicious.

The Blue House, or “Cheong Wa Dae” in Korean, is named after the blue tiles that cover the top of the main building and is nestled in a scenic spot in front of the Bugaksan mountain.

The Blue House Foundation that organizes visits said tours to see the ornate state rooms and manicured lawns were fully booked until mid-July.

More than 8 million people had taken the chance to visit the Blue House by mid-June, data from the foundation showed.

After an initial surge of interest when the complex first opened to the public in 2022, the number of monthly visitors had drifted down to average about 160,000 last year, but after Mr. Yoon’s impeachment visitor numbers hit 260,000 in April and 430,000 in May.

Another visitor this week, Jin Kyung-soo, a 35-year-old middle-school teacher, had also made a reservation to visit after hearing that the new administration planned to move in again.

“We waited in line for about an hour, but it was truly exciting and joyful. I looked around with great hope for what the Lee Jae Myung government will do going forward,” said Jin. — Reuters