DESPITE the trade tension between the United States and China, majority of business professionals are optimistic the global system of trade can be restored over the long term, according to results of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum survey.
However, the survey, which was conducted last month among 2,000 business professionals in 20 markets including the Philippines, also showed only half of the respondents believe there will be more global trade in five years.
Among the respondents from the Philippines, 51% are optimistic the global trading order will be restored soon, while 76% said there will be more trade in five years’ time.
Justin B. Smith, chief executive officer of the Bloomberg Media Group, said the New Economy survey provides a “barometer into public sentiment towards a world economy in transition,” ahead of the inaugural Bloomberg New Economy Forum to be held in Singapore in November.
“The survey reveals vast differences in perceptions for the future and highlights the need to bring together global leaders in business and government to find private-sector led solutions to some of the world’s biggest challenges,” Mr. Smith was quoted as saying in a statement.
The survey suggested that developing countries have a more positive trade outlook than developed countries. Around 63% of respondents from emerging markets see more global trade in five years, while only 36% from developed markets agreed.
“One of the striking findings from the survey is the divergence between optimism about the global trade outlook in emerging markets, and pessimism in developed economies,” Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s Chief Economist said in the survey report.
“This suggests that, for emerging markets, the costs of the current slide towards a trade war could be less than expected. If businesses retain that fundamental optimism about the outlook for trade, continued hiring and investment could propel growth forward, even as tariff barriers rise,” he added.
The survey also showed 49% of Philippine respondents think the US-China trade war is hampering global growth, while 22% believe the trade tension “will set” US-China relations.
Majority (75%) of the Philippine respondents believe China will become the “strongest economic powerhouse in ten years’ time,” followed by the United States (71% of responses) and Japan (63%).
Meanwhile, a fourth of survey respondents pointed to global governance as the most critical global challenge requiring action. This sentiment was strong among respondents from the Philippines (35%), India (39%) and Middle East (41%).
“We think that private-sector businesses must take greater leadership in addressing key global challenges. New economies are playing an expanded role across trade and businesses today, and with a changing new world order, there is an urgent need for real dialogue and action on the long-term implications of this transitional moment,” Mr. Smith said. — Janina C. Lim
