VICE-PRESIDENT Sara Duterte-Carpio held a press conference with Kamuning Bakery Café owner and Philippine Star columnist Wilson Lee Flores to celebrate World Pandesal Day in Quezon City on Thursday. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

VICE-PRESIDENT Sara Duterte-Carpio remains the front-runner in the 2028 presidential race despite facing an impeachment battle, but her lead over former Vice-President and Naga City Mayor Ma. Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo has narrowed, OCTA Research reported on Monday.

In its first-quarter 2026 “Tugon ng Masa” survey, OCTA found Ms. Duterte securing 46% voter preference, compared with Ms. Robredo’s 35%, while 19% of respondents remained undecided.

The margin is tighter than in previous polling rounds, where Ms. Duterte’s advantage ranged from 20 to 30 percentage points, suggesting early shifts in voter sentiment.

According to the survey, Ms. Duterte commands a wider and more geographically dispersed support base nationwide, while Ms. Robredo draws from a smaller but more concentrated bloc in key political strongholds.

This positions Ms. Duterte with an advantage in overall reach, while Ms. Robredo remains competitive due to the density of support in strategically important areas.

“The results suggest that Vice-President Duterte’s advantage remains structurally strong, anchored by overwhelming support in Mindanao, majority support in the Visayas, and continued strength among lower-income voters,” OCTA said in a statement.

“This gives her a broad and electorally efficient coalition with national reach.”

Ms. Duterte is facing ouster raps at the House of Representatives for the alleged misuse of public funds, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and plotting to assassinate President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

She announced her intention to run for the country’s top post last Feb. 18 as the rift between her and Mr. Marcos widens.

Ms. Robredo earlier said she will not run for national office in 2028 and will stick to being a local chief executive.

“I am certain about myself that I will no longer run for any national position,” Ms. Robredo earlier said.

“Mayor Robredo remains competitive because her support is concentrated in politically strategic and vote-dense areas — particularly the National Capital Region (NCR) and Balance Luzon,” OCTA said, adding these regions give her a competitive electoral base despite Ms. Duterte’s broader national spread.

Nearly one in five Filipinos are still undecided, a portion that OCTA said remains politically significant.

The 19% of undecided voters indicates a “substantial” segment of the electorate that remains open to persuasion, making the polls fluid, OCTA added.

The survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 randomly selected respondents aged 18 and above.

It carried a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, while regional estimates for the NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao have wider margins of ±6%, also at the same confidence level.

The first-quarter 2026 Tugon Ng Masa results represent an early, hypothetical measure of voter preference and should be read as a snapshot of current sentiment rather than a forecast of election outcomes, OCTA noted. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana

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