US law granting PHL $2.5-B military aid may be tied to Taiwan risk — analysts

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

US PRESIDENT Donald J. Trump’s approval of a bill that could provide $2.5 billion in multi-year military funding for the Philippines may reflect his administration’s bid to bolster its ally as the US prepares for a possible conflict over Taiwan, analysts said.

While the South China Sea remains a flashpoint, Washington’s greater concern is Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own and has not ruled out taking by force, said Vincent Kyle Parada, an emerging leaders fellow at think tank FACTS Asia.

Still, the security assistance — $500 million annually over the next five years — could give Manila a financial lifeline to upgrade its military arsenal amid lingering tensions in the disputed waterway, including long-sought advanced fighter jets, additional warships and missile systems, he added.

“The fact is that increased defense cooperation between the US, and the Philippines has primarily been in preparation for a Taiwan contingency — not a South China Sea one,” Mr. Parada, also a former defense research analyst with the Philippine Navy, said in a Viber message.

Mr. Trump last week signed a sweeping $900-billion military budget and defense policy bill, as Washington seeks to recalibrate defense priorities amid a shifting global strategic landscape.

The White House has released its National Security Strategy, with Washington looking inward to restore “American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere,” while still keeping a close watch on Taiwan.

“This recent aid package should be seen as a telling sign of Washington’s continued patronage [of Manila],” Mr. Parada said.

The Philippines and US are long-time allies, with their security ties anchored on the 1950s Mutual Defense Treaty that obligates both nations to come to each other’s aid in case of an armed attack in the Pacific. Manila also hosts several joint bases shared with US military personnel.

Like the US, the Philippines has kept a close watch on the Taiwan situation, where hundreds of thousands of Filipinos are staying.

The Philippines’ National Security Policy 2023-2028 identified the Taiwan conflict as a potential flashpoint due to the country’s proximity from the island, which could not only affect Filipinos in Taiwan but also lead to an influx of refugees.

Philippine military chief Romeo S. Brawner, Jr. in April directed the armed forces to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, while President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in August warned the Philippines would be dragged “kicking and screaming” into any confrontation over Taiwan, which lies less than 200 kilometers from its northernmost islands.

While the US has vowed to protect Taiwan, Washington has adopted a policy of “strategic ambiguity” whether to militarily step in if China launches an invasion. Beijing claims Taiwan as a breakaway province and has threatened to annex the island, putting its 23 million people and the world’s most advanced semiconductor factories at risk.

Taiwan’s ex-Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng in 2021 said China could be ready to mount a full-scale invasion of the island state by this year, while former US Indo-Pacific Commander John C. Aquilino said indications point to the possibility of a Taiwan invasion by 2027.

The Philippines is also at odds with China as it lays claim over almost the entire South China Sea based on a “nine-dash line” map, a claim voided by a United Nations-backed tribunal in 2016.

“While the two could be seen as a single operational theatre with significant spill-over effects between them, there should be no pretense. A Taiwan contingency will cross the threshold of armed conflict, and South China Sea tensions are deliberated being kept below that threshold,” Mr. Parada said.

The 2026 US military spending law also seeks to boost Washington’s “multilateral security cooperation and capacity-building efforts” with the Philippines and other regional partners, according to the bill posted on the US Congress website.

It also strengthens the US-Philippine alliance by helping modernize the Southeast Asian nation’s military to safeguard “maritime domain awareness,” counter “coercive military activities” and improve structures needed to prepare for regional contingencies.

The law also provides foreign military financing assistance of up to $500 million a year through 2030.

Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said the security aid would strengthen the Philippines’ drive to modernize its military.

The Philippines has launched a sweeping $35-billion (P2-trillion) modernization program aimed at bolstering its military assets over the next decade, through the acquisition of advanced naval vessels, planes and missile systems, as it pushes back against China’s military might in the region.

“There are several key capabilities the armed forces are looking to develop under the modernization program, chief among them the anti-access and area denial capabilities, like missile defense systems,” Mr. Parada said.

He said the law gives the Philippines the freedom to acquire military assets it deems crucial to advancing its modernization program.

“While the continued expansion and modernization of the armed forces is an admirable effort, it needs to proceed at a sustainable rate… it’s a delicate balancing act,” said Mr. Parada.

“You can’t buy too much in quick succession because then they’ll become obsolete in quick succession,” he said. “At the same time, you can’t buy too sparingly because the evolving threat landscape demands that you invest in your immediate security.”